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Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Hay SI, Holmberg M, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lopez AD, Lozano R, McNellan CR, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Olsen HE, Pigott DM, Salomon JA, Vos T, Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed KY, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam U, Alasfoor D, AlBuhairan FS, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alkhateeb MAB, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barber R, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basu S, Bayou TA, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff KA, Bikbov B, Binagwaho A, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cecílio P, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Che X, Chen AZ, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cohen AJ, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Neves JD, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Deshpande A, deVeber GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Gessner BD, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin W, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Greenwell KF, Griswold M, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Haakenstad A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Jansen HAFM, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karunapema P, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim S, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krueger H, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Kyu HH, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Langan SM, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, El Razek MMA, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mapoma CC, Margolis DJ, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murdoch ME, Murimira B, Murray J, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Neal B, Nejjari C, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ngalesoni FN, Nguhiu P, Nguyen G, Le Nguyen Q, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Park EK, Park HY, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patel V, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Ranganathan K, Rao PC, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Roberts B, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos JV, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford K, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shey M, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sligar A, Soneji S, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stahl HC, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Strong M, Sun J, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tarawneh MR, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera W, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Volkow P, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wanga V, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wolfe I, Won S, Woolf AD, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zegeye EA, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Murray CJL. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1813-1850. [PMID: 27665228 PMCID: PMC5055583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Anderson HR, Bhutta ZA, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Cohen AJ, Dandona L, Estep K, Ferrari AJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gething PW, Godwin WW, Griswold M, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lim SS, Liu PY, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M, Neal B, Reitsma MB, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sur PJ, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wang H, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Aasvang GM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Batis C, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Manzano AGC, Cooper LT, Cooperrider K, Cornaby L, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fleming T, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernández-Llanes NF, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hutchings SJ, Huybrechts I, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jansen HAFM, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Kromhout H, Krueger H, Ku T, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, MacIntyre M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manamo WAA, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Nangia V, Nassiri N, Newton JN, Ng M, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olsen H, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Orozco R, Ortiz A, Ota E, PA M, Pana A, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranganathan K, Rao P, García CAR, Refaat AH, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reinig N, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba HS, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez-Ramirez S, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sandar L, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Slepak EL, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye BW, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Thakur JS, Thomas BA, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang JL, Wang L, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woolf AD, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zhu J, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1659-1724. [PMID: 27733284 PMCID: PMC5388856 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31679-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2719] [Impact Index Per Article: 339.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/19/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fraser MS, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Huynh C, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kinfu Y, Kulikoff XR, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lozano R, Marquez N, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, VanderZanden A, Vollset SE, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Wolock T, Zoeckler L, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adelekan AL, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Alabed S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Belay HA, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biroscak BJ, Biryukov S, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Bohensky MA, Borschmann R, Bose D, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brayne CEG, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Brown A, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cercy K, Cerda J, Chen W, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona R, Daoud F, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, de Castro EF, de Jager P, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, dos Santos KPB, Dossou E, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ellenbogen RG, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faghmous IDA, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gall SL, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ghoshal AG, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Gilmour S, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Greaves F, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Heckbert SR, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hilderink HBM, Hoek HW, Hogg RS, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu G, Huang C, Huang H, Huiart L, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Huynh G, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jonas JB, Joshi TK, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Kant S, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karletsos D, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissela BM, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krog NH, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leigh J, Levi M, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Razek HMAE, Magdy M, Razek AE, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manamo WAA, Mandisarisa J, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martin GR, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montero P, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Morgan K, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naik N, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norman PE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Ohkubo T, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain A, Pandian JD, Pant PR, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pedro JM, Stokic LP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Qorbani M, Quame-Amaglo J, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajavi Z, Rajsic S, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rangaswamy T, Rao P, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Blancas MJR, Roberts B, Roca A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy NK, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shen Z, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Have MT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tirschwell DL, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Dingenen RV, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Wagner JA, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Younis MZ, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zannad F, Zavala DE, Zeeb H, Zeleke BM, Zhang H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1459-1544. [PMID: 27733281 PMCID: PMC5388903 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4031] [Impact Index Per Article: 503.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Bhutta ZA, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Diallo K, Franca EB, Fraser M, Fullman N, Gething PW, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Kita M, Kulikoff XR, Larson HJ, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell JB, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Rakovac I, Salomon JA, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Vos T, Zhu J, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adelekan AL, Adou AK, Agarwal A, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Banigbe BF, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Bayou TA, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown A, Buckle GC, Burch M, Butt ZA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cornaby L, Damtew SA, Danawi H, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davis AC, de Jager P, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Deribe K, Deribew A, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doshi PP, Doyle KE, Duan L, Dubey M, Ebrahimi H, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Fürst T, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Harun KM, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang C, Huang JJ, Huang H, Huiart L, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kang G, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khonelidze I, Khubchandani J, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kumar GA, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lam JO, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Liu PY, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Lo WD, Logroscino G, Low N, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Razek HMAE, Razek MMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, McGrath JJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murphy GAV, Murthy S, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguhiu P, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ota E, PA M, Park EK, Park HY, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Pope D, Popova S, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao P, Refaat AH, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shuie I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg J, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Tekle T, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thapa K, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tura AK, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, Vaezghasemi M, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wang L, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Widdowson MA, Wijeratne T, Williams TN, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wolfe I, Won S, Wubshet M, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Murray CJL. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1725-1774. [PMID: 27733285 PMCID: PMC5224696 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31575-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 515] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2016] [Revised: 08/06/2016] [Accepted: 08/09/2016] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. METHODS Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7-6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7-53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3-43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6-2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1-57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6-3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. INTERPRETATION Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown J, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, VanderZanden A, Wagner JA, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zhou M, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Ahmed MB, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Bayou TA, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Choudhury L, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jauregui A, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kajungu DK, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Oyekale AS, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai D, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Ranganathan K, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, van Os J, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1603-1658. [PMID: 27733283 PMCID: PMC5388857 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31460-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1387] [Impact Index Per Article: 173.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vos T, Allen C, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown A, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Dilegge T, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming T, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kawashima T, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Olsen H, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, Wagner JA, Wang H, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Afanvi KA, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ajala ON, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown J, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Daoud F, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endres M, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Estep K, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Fox J, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Grainger R, Greaves F, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huynh C, Iannarone M, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim P, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Larsson A, Lavados PM, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo WD, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Mackay MT, Magdy M, Razek AE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Massano J, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nunes BP, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, de Azeredo Passos VM, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pond CD, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rao P, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, Sharma U, Shen J, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Sivonda A, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Sligar A, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steinke S, Stovner L, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woodbrook R, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1545-1602. [PMID: 27733282 PMCID: PMC5055577 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31678-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4522] [Impact Index Per Article: 565.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. FINDINGS We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4-19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30-2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35-2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. INTERPRETATION Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Haile D, Gashaw K, Nigatu D, Demelash H. Cognitive function and associated factors among school age children in Goba Town, South-East Ethiopia. COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cogdev.2016.09.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Ayana BA, Negash S, Yusuf L, Tigeneh W, Haile D. Reliability and Validity of Amharic Version of EORTC QLQ-C 30 Questionnaire among Gynecological Cancer Patients in Ethiopia. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0157359. [PMID: 27304066 PMCID: PMC4909272 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2015] [Accepted: 05/28/2016] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cancer is a growing public health problem worldwide. The focus of cancer treatment, in addition to curation, is improving the quality of life (QOL). This study aimed to assess the reliability and validity of Amharic version of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) among gynecological cancer patients in Ethiopia. METHODS A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted using the Amharic version of EORTC QLQ-C30 on 153 gynecological cancer patients in Tikur Anbassa Specialized Hospital (TASH), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multivariable linear regression were employed in statistical analysis. RESULTS The Amharic version of EORTC QLQ-C30 had a Cronbach's α value of 0.81. The internal consistency for each domain of EORTC QLQ-C30 was also acceptable (Cronbach's α >0.7) except for cognitive function domain (Cronbach's α = 0.29). Stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis showed that emotional functioning (p<0.001), fatigue (p<0.001) and social functioning (p = 0.004) were the determinative scales of EORTC QLQ-C30 on global health status (GHS). The clinical validity test (Known group validity) showed that there were significant differences in score for twelve out of 15 domains, between surgery and radiation scheduled patients. All items of emotional function, role function, fatigue, and GHS meet the discriminate validity criterion. CONCLUSION The Amharic version of EORTC QLQ-C30 found to be reliable and had an acceptable validity to assess the QOL for gynecological cancer patients. We recommend further work on the validity and responsiveness of the EORTC QLQ-C30 with stronger design.
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Haile D, Nigatu D, Gashaw K, Demelash H. Height for age z score and cognitive function are associated with Academic performance among school children aged 8-11 years old. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2016; 74:17. [PMID: 27141306 PMCID: PMC4852419 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-016-0129-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2015] [Accepted: 03/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
Background Academic achievement of school age children can be affected by several factors such as nutritional status, demographics, and socioeconomic factors. Though evidence about the magnitude of malnutrition is well established in Ethiopia, there is a paucity of evidence about the association of nutritional status with academic performance among the nation’s school age children. Hence, this study aimed to determine how nutritional status and cognitive function are associated with academic performance of school children in Goba town, South East Ethiopia. Methods An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among 131 school age students from primary schools in Goba town enrolled during the 2013/2014 academic year. The nutritional status of students was assessed by anthropometric measurement, while the cognitive assessment was measured by the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children (KABC-II) and Ravens colored progressive matrices (Raven’s CPM) tests. The academic performance of the school children was measured by collecting the preceding semester academic result from the school record. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariable linear regression were used in the statistical analysis. Results This study found a statistically significant positive association between all cognitive test scores and average academic performance except for number recall (p = 0.12) and hand movements (p = 0.08). The correlation between all cognitive test scores and mathematics score was found positive and statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the multivariable linear regression model, better wealth index was significantly associated with higher mathematics score (ß = 0.63; 95 % CI: 0.12–0.74). Similarly a unit change in height for age z score resulted in 2.11 unit change in mathematics score (ß = 2.11; 95 % CI: 0.002–4.21). A single unit change of wealth index resulted 0.53 unit changes in average score of all academic subjects among school age children (ß = 0.53; 95 % CI: 0.11–0.95). A single unit change of age resulted 3.23 unit change in average score of all academic subjects among school age children (ß = 3.23; 95 % CI: 1.20–5.27). Conclusion Nutritional status (height for age Z score) and wealth could be modifiable factors to improve academic performance of school age children. Moreover, interventions to improve nutrition for mothers and children may be an important contributor to academic success and national economic growth in Ethiopia. Further study with strong design and large sample size is needed.
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Haile D, Azage M, Mola T, Rainey R. Exploring spatial variations and factors associated with childhood stunting in Ethiopia: spatial and multilevel analysis. BMC Pediatr 2016; 16:49. [PMID: 27084512 PMCID: PMC4833938 DOI: 10.1186/s12887-016-0587-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2014] [Accepted: 04/12/2016] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stunting reflects a failure to receive adequate nutrition over a long period of time. Stunting is associated with adverse functional consequences including poor cognition, low educational performance, low adult wages, and poor reproductive outcomes. The objective of the study was to investigate spatial variations and factors associated with childhood stunting in Ethiopia. METHODS This study is a secondary data analysis of the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A total of 9893 children aged 0-59 months were included in the analysis. The Getis-Ord spatial statistical tool was used to identify high and low hotspots areas of stunting. A multilevel multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with stunting. RESULTS Statistically significant hotspots of stunting were found in northern parts of the country whereas low hotspots where there was less stunting than expected were found in the central, eastern, and western parts of the country. In the final model of multilevel logistic regression analysis, individual and community level factors accounted for 36.6 % of childhood stunting. Short birth interval [AOR = 1.68; 95%CI: (1.46-1.93)], being male [AOR = 1.20; 95%CI: (1.08-1.33)], and being from a male-headed household [AOR = 1.18; 95 % CI: (1.01-1.38)] were the factors that increased the odds of stunting at the individual level. Children in the age group between 24-35 months were more likely to be stunted than children whose age was less than one year [AOR = 6.61; 95 % CI: (5.17-8.44)]. The odds of stunting among children with severe anemia were higher than children with no anemia [AOR = 3.23; 95%CI: (2.35-4.43)]. Children with mothers who had completed higher education had lower odds of being stunted compared to children whose mothers had no formal education [AOR = 0.42; 95%CI: (0.18-0.94)]. The odds of being stunted were lower among children whose fathers completed higher education [AOR = 0.58; 95%CI: (0.38-0.89)] compared to children whose fathers had no formal education. Children whose mothers who had high a Body Mass Index (BMI) (≥25.0 kg/m(2)) were less likely to be stunted compared with children whose mothers had a normal BMI (18.5 kg/m(2)-24.9 kg/m(2))[AOR = 0.69; 95%CI: (0.52-0.90)]. Children from the poorest wealth quintile had higher odds of being stunted compared to children from the richest wealth quintiles [AOR = 1.43; 95 % CI: (1.08-1.88)]. Unavailability of improved latrine facilities and living in the northern parts of the country (Tigray, Affar, Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuzregions) were factors associated with higher odds of stunting from the community-level factors. CONCLUSION Stunting in children under five years old is not random in Ethiopia, with hotspots of higher stunting in the northern part of Ethiopia. Both individual and community-level factors were significant determinants of childhood stunting. The regions with high hotspots of child stunting should be targeted with additional resources, and the identified factors should be considered for nutritional interventions.
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azage M, Haile D. Factors affecting healthcare service utilization of mothers who had children with diarrhea in Ethiopia: evidence from a population based national survey. Rural Remote Health 2015. [DOI: 10.22605/rrh3493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
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Azage M, Haile D. Factors affecting healthcare service utilization of mothers who had children with diarrhea in Ethiopia: evidence from a population based national survey. Rural Remote Health 2015; 15:3493. [PMID: 26732052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Appropriate healthcare-seeking practices of mothers are important to prevent child death. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with mothers' healthcare services utilization for managing childhood diarrhea (CDD) in Ethiopia. METHODS A secondary data analysis was performed using data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Binary and multivariable logistic regressions were carried out to identify factors associated with mothers' healthcare services utilization for CDD. RESULTS About 35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.67-37.33%) of mothers visited healthcare institutions (HCIs) for CDD. Those mothers with children aged 6-11 months were 2.16 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.16, 95%CI: 1.32-3.53) compared to mothers who had children under 6 months of age. Urban mothers were 1.68 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD compared to rural mothers (AOR=1.68, 95%CI: 1.06-2.67). Those mothers who had information about oral rehydration salts (ORSs) were 2.66 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD compared to those mothers who had no information about ORS (AOR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.93-3.67). Mothers who attended antenatal care were 1.34 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD than mothers who never attended antenatal care (AOR=1.34, 95%CI: 1.04-1.74). Mothers who had postnatal checkups were 1.53 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD compared to mothers who had no postnatal checkups (AOR=1.53, 95%CI: 1.02-2.30). Those mothers who participated in community conversation were 1.67 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD than those mothers who had no information about community conversation (AOR=1.67, 95%CI: 1.15-2.39). CONCLUSIONS Healthcare services utilization for CDD was found to be poor in Ethiopia. Urban residency, older age of the child, awareness of ORSs, antenatal care attendance, postnatal check and attending community conversation were factors associated with healthcare services utilization for CDD. Interventions to improve mothers' healthcare service utilization for CDD treatment should target rural households. Promotions of appropriate CDD treatment during ANC, postnatal checkup and community conversation are the recommended interventions.
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Haile D, Biadgilign S. Higher breastfeeding performance index is associated with lower risk of illness in infants under six months in Ethiopia. Int Breastfeed J 2015; 10:32. [PMID: 26617666 PMCID: PMC4662817 DOI: 10.1186/s13006-015-0057-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2015] [Accepted: 11/23/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Breastfeeding performance index is an explanatory attempt to summarize key breastfeeding practices by summarizing the different dimensions of breastfeeding practices into a single summary variable. Breastfeeding performance index is used to assess optimal breastfeeding practices by constructing a single composite index that includes timely initiation of breastfeeding, prelacteal feeding, current breastfeeding status, bottle feeding, any liquid given(except medicine) in the last 24 h, formula given in the last 24 h, any solid food given in the last 24 h. This study aimed to assess optimal breastfeeding practices of 0-6 month infants using breastfeeding performance index (BPI) and its association with childhood illness in Ethiopia. METHODS A secondary data analysis was carried out based on the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2011 data. The BPI was created using seven components by giving equal weight for all components during scoring. The data were described using descriptive statistics and analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS The prevalence of low, medium, and high BPI was 18.41, 57.96 and 23.63 % respectively. The mean BPI score was 4.38 (SD 1.25; 95 % CI 4.31, 4.45). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that those infants who had low BPI score were 2.22 times (AOR = 2.22; 95 % CI 1.20, 4.11) and medium BPI category had 2.15 times at higher odds (AOR = 2.15; 95 % CI 1.23, 3.75) of developing diarrhea compared to infants in the highest BPI category. Being in the lower BPI category was significantly associated with higher odds of having fever (AOR = 1.73; 95 % CI 1.06, 2.80). Being in the medium index category was also associated with higher odds of having short and rapid breaths (AOR = 2.02; 95 % CI 1.01, 4.04). CONCLUSION More than 80 % of the infants did not receive optimal breastfeeding practices based on the Breastfeeding Performance Index. Lower BPI was statistically associated with diarrhea, fever and short and rapid breaths illness in the last 2 weeks. This study implicates the importance of optimal breastfeeding to reduce childhood illness.
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Lakew Y, Benedict S, Haile D. Social determinants of HIV infection, hotspot areas and subpopulation groups in Ethiopia: evidence from the National Demographic and Health Survey in 2011. BMJ Open 2015; 5:e008669. [PMID: 26589427 PMCID: PMC4663400 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study identifies social determinants of HIV infection, hotspot areas and subpopulation groups in Ethiopia. DESIGN The study used data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Sample blood tests from the finger pricks collected on filter paper cards were labelled with a barcode unique to each respondent. Spatial scan statistics and geographic information system tools were used to map hotspot areas of HIV prevalence. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify social determinants of HIV infection. POPULATION A total of 30,625 adults (16,515 women and 14,110 men) were included from 11 administrative states of Ethiopia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Laboratory-confirmed HIV serostatus is the main outcome variable. RESULTS HIV prevalence reached 10-21% in the central, eastern and western geographic clusters of Ethiopia. Multivariable analysis showed that individuals who were in the middle, richer and richest wealth quintiles had increased odds of having HIV over those in the poorest quintile. Adults who had primary, secondary and higher educational levels had higher odds of being HIV positive than non-educated individuals. The odds of having HIV were higher among adults who had multiple lifetime sexual partners than those with a single partner. An increasing odds of HIV infection were observed among adults in the age groups of 25-29, 30-34, 35-39 and 40-45 years compared with adults in the age group of 45-49 years. Merchants had higher odds of being HIV positive than those who were not employed. The odds of having HIV were higher among urban residents and females than among rural residents and males, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study found statistically significant HIV concentrations in administrative zones of central, eastern and western Ethiopia. Geospatial monitoring and targeting of prevention strategies for specific population groups is recommended.
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Biratu A, Haile D. Prevalence of antenatal depression and associated factors among pregnant women in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study. Reprod Health 2015; 12:99. [PMID: 26514827 PMCID: PMC4627391 DOI: 10.1186/s12978-015-0092-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2015] [Accepted: 10/26/2015] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The World Health Organization identifies depressive disorders as the second leading cause of global disease burden by 2020. However, there is a paucity of studies which examined the associated factors of antenatal depression in low-income countries. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of antenatal depression and associated factors among pregnant women in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods A cross-sectional study was employed among 393 pregnant women attending antenatal care service in Addis Ababa public health centers, Ethiopia from April 12–26, 2012. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to detect depressive symptoms. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used in the statistical analysis. Results Prevalence of antenatal depression was 24.94 % (95 % CI: 20.85–29.30 %). In the final multivariable model, those pregnant women who have previous history of depression were nearly three times at higher odds of having antenatal depression as compared to pregnant women who have no history of depression [AOR = 2.57(95 % CI: 1.48–4.48 )]. Those pregnant women having unplanned pregnancy were nearly three times at higher odds to develop depression as compared to pregnant women whose pregnancy was planned [AOR = 2.78(95 % CI: 1.59–4.85)]. The odd of developing antenatal depression was 89 % higher in those pregnant women who experienced lack of baby’s father support [AOR = 1.89(95 % CI: 1.06–3.36)]. Education level, community’s support, and partner’s feeling on current pregnancy were not significantly associated factors with antenatal depression in the final multivariable model. Conclusion Although clinical confirmation for antenatal depression is not conducted, one quarter of the pregnant women attending antenatal care were depressed in Addis Ababa based on EPDS. Unplanned pregnancy, experiencing lack of baby’s father support and previous history of depression were factors independently associated with antenatal depression. Promotion of family planning and integration of mental health service with existing maternal health care as well as strengthening the referral system among public health centers were the recalled interventions to prevent antenatal depression in Addis Ababa Public Health Centers.
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Azage M, Haile D. Factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices in Ethiopia: evidence from demographic and health survey. Arch Public Health 2015; 73:40. [PMID: 26504520 PMCID: PMC4620604 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-015-0090-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2015] [Accepted: 08/24/2015] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND According to the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for water supply and Sanitation definition, safe child feces disposal practices include: children defecation into a latrine, disposal of child stools in a latrine or burial. Inappropriate disposal of human feces including unsafe child feces disposal facilitates the transmission of pathogens. However, the factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices have not been yet well explored in Ethiopia. This study aimed to identify factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices in Ethiopia. METHODS This study analyzed data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2011. The practice of child's feces disposal was categorized into 'safe' and 'unsafe' based on the WHO/ UNICEF JMP for water supply & Sanitation definition. Binary and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to identify factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices. RESULT The prevalence of safe child feces disposal was 33.68 % (95 % CI: 32.82-34.55). In the final multivariable logistic regression model, the practice of safe disposal of child feces was significantly associated with urban residency (AOR = 1.25, 95 % CI: 1.01-1.55) and having access to an improved latrine (AOR = 1.92, 95 % CI: 1.56-2.36). Households found in the poorer, middle, richer and richest wealth quintile had (AOR = 2.22, 95 % CI: 1.70-2.89), (AOR = 2.94, 95 % CI: 2.27-3.81), (AOR = 4.20, 95 % CI: 3.42-5.72) and (AOR = 8.06, 95 % CI: 5.91-10.99) times higher odds to practice safe child feces disposal respectively as compared households from poorest wealth quintile. Mothers/caregivers with primary, secondary and higher educational status had (AOR = 1.29, 95 % CI: 1.10-1.50), (AOR = 1. 64, 95 % CI: 1.12-2.41) and (AOR = 2.16, 95 % CI: 1.25-3.72) times higher odds to practice safe child feces disposal respectively than those mothers who had no education. Those mothers/caregivers whose child was 48-59 months old had (AOR = 2.21, 95 % CI: 1.82-2.68) times higher odds to practice safe child feces disposal as compared to mothers/caregivers who had a child with age less than 12 months old. The odds of safe child feces disposal among households who had one two and three under five years old children were (AOR = 3.11, 95 % CI: 1.87-5.19),(AOR = 2.55, 95 % CI: 1.53-4.24) and (AOR = 1.92, 95 % CI: 1.13-3.24) times higher respectively than households with four and more children of under five years old. CONCLUSION Only one third of the mothers practiced safe child feces disposal in Ethiopia. Being an urban resident, having a higher wealth quintile, high levels of maternal education, older child age, having a lower number of under five years old children, and the presence of an improved latrine were factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices. Therefore interventions designed to improve safe child feces disposal practices should consider those factors identified. Further research is also needed to design intervention that will aim to improve safe child feces disposal.
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Legesse M, Demena M, Mesfin F, Haile D. Factors Associated with Colostrum Avoidance Among Mothers of Children Aged less than 24 Months in Raya Kobo district, North-eastern Ethiopia: Community-based Cross-sectional Study. J Trop Pediatr 2015; 61:357-63. [PMID: 26141533 PMCID: PMC4590259 DOI: 10.1093/tropej/fmv039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND UNICEF and WHO recommend colostrum as newborns' perfect food that should be initiated within the first hour after birth. OBJECTIVE To assess colostrum avoidance practices and associated factors among mothers of children aged <24 months in Raya Kobo district, North-eastern Ethiopia. METHODS A quantitative community-based cross-sectional study supplemented by qualitative method was used. Descriptive statistics, binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used in the statistical analysis. RESULTS Colostrum avoidance was practiced by 13.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.99-16.33) of mothers having children aged <24 months. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, giving birth at home, mother-heading households, lack of awareness on the advantages of colostrum and late initiation of breastfeeding remained statistically significant factors associated with colostrum avoidance practices. CONCLUSION Promoting institutional delivery, timely initiation of breastfeeding and creating awareness on the advantages of colostrum feeding are recommended interventions to reduce colostrum avoidance.
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Fekadu Y, Mesfin A, Haile D, Stoecker BJ. Factors associated with nutritional status of infants and young children in Somali Region, Ethiopia: a cross- sectional study. BMC Public Health 2015; 15:846. [PMID: 26330081 PMCID: PMC4557759 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-2190-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2014] [Accepted: 08/26/2015] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Inadequate nutrition during the first two years of life may lead to childhood morbidity and mortality, as well as inadequate brain development. Infants are at increased risk of malnutrition by six months, when breast milk alone is no longer sufficient to meet their nutritional requirements. However the factors associated with nutritional status of infants after 6 months of age have received little attention in pastoralist communities of Ethiopia. Therefore this study aimed to identify the factors associated with nutritional status of infants and young children (6–23 months) in Filtu town, Somali Region, Ethiopia. Methods A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted. Simple random sampling was employed to select 214 infants for the study. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions models were used in the statistical analysis. The strength of association was measured by odds ratios with 95 % confidence intervals. Both the crude (COR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) are reported. Results The prevalence of wasting, stunting and underweight among infants and young children were 17.5 % (95 % CI: 12.91-23.22), 22.9 % (95 % CI: 17.6-28.9) and 19.5 % (95 % CI: 14.58-25.3) respectively. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that breastfeeding was independently associated with reduced odds of wasting (AOR = 0.38(95 % CI: 0.14-0.99)). Diarrhea in the past 15 days (AOR = 2.13 (95 % CI: 1.55-4.69)) was also associated with increased odds for wasting. The independent predictors of reduced odds for stunting were dietary diversity score ≥4 (AOR = 0.45(95 % CI: 0.21-0.95)) and introduction of complementary feeding at 6 months (AOR = 0.25 (95 % CI: 0.09-0.66)). Bottle feeding was associated with increased odds of stunting (AOR = 3.83 (95 % CI: 1.69-8.67)). Breastfeeding was associated with reduced odds of underweight (AOR = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.1-0.59)), while diarrheal disease in the past 15 days was associated with increased odds of underweight (AOR = 3.54 (95 % CI: 1.17-7.72)). Conclusion Under nutrition is a public health problem among infants and young children in Filtu town, Somali region Ethiopia. Breastfeeding was associated with lower odds of wasting and underweight while diarrheal disease was associated with higher odds of wasting and underweight. Low dietary diversity scores, inappropriate age of complementary feeding initiation and bottle feeding were identified to be significant predictors of stunting. Those factors should be considered for any intervention aimed to reduce under nutrition among infants and young children in Filitu town, Somali region, Ethiopia.
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Lakew Y, Tabar L, Haile D. Socio-medical determinants of timely breastfeeding initiation in Ethiopia: Evidence from the 2011 nation wide Demographic and Health Survey. Int Breastfeed J 2015; 10:24. [PMID: 26300951 PMCID: PMC4545700 DOI: 10.1186/s13006-015-0050-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2015] [Accepted: 08/10/2015] [Indexed: 11/02/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early initiation of breastfeeding is a simple and cost effective intervention to advance the health of mothers and newborns. The World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) recommend that breastfeeding should be initiated within one hour of birth. The aim of this study is to identify factors associated with timely initiation of breastfeeding among mothers in Ethiopia within one hour of birth. METHODS This study used data from the 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 11,654 households were included in the analysis from 11 administrative states of Ethiopia. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models with adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were used to quantify predictors of early breastfeeding initiation. RESULTS The overall prevalence of timely breastfeeding initiation was 52 % (95 % CI: 51.09, 52.91). The prevalence was higher in urban settings (61.4 %; 95 % CI: 58.85, 63.85) than in rural areas (52.3 %; 95 % CI: 51.33, 53.28). The highest prevalence was found in Addis Ababa 71.5 % (95 % CI: 64.88, 77.12) while the lowest prevalence was 41.7 % (95 % CI: 36.62, 47.00) in Somali regional state. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that rural mothers had 39 % lower odds of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 0.61; 95 % CI: 0.50, 0.76) compared to urban mothers. Mothers who had secondary education or higher had 60 % higher odds of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 1.6; 95 % CI: 1.02, 2.44) than never educated mothers. Mothers who had caesarian deliveries had 61 % lower odds of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 0.39; 95 % CI: 0.22, 0.71) compared to vaginal deliveries. Working mothers were 23 % less likely to timely initiate breastfeeding (AOR 0.77; 95 % CI: 0.69, 0.85) compared to housewives. Female infants had a 20 % higher chance of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 1.2; 95 % CI: 1.05, 1.30) compared to male infants. CONCLUSION Early initiation of breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was not optimal in Ethiopia. Factors such as place of residence, educational level, occupation, gender of the newborn and type of delivery should be considered in any intervention program in order to enhance timely breastfeeding initiation.
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Haile D, Setegn T, Biadgilign S. Adherence to WHO breastfeeding guidelines among HIV positive mothers in Southern Ethiopia: implication for intervention. PEDIATRIC HEALTH MEDICINE AND THERAPEUTICS 2015; 6:87-92. [PMID: 29388589 PMCID: PMC5683275 DOI: 10.2147/phmt.s82356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Background Breastfeeding reduces major causes of infant mortality and morbidity. On the other hand, it is a major mode of vertical HIV transmission. In developing countries like Ethiopia, HIV positive mothers are advised to continue breastfeeding up to 12 months. But there is scarce literature regarding the mothers’ adherence to continued breastfeeding recommendations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess HIV positive mothers’ adherence to the infant feeding recommendations of the new World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for HIV-exposed infants aged ≥6 months. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in health institutions with antiretroviral therapy and prevention of mother to child transmission facilities in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Health institutions were considered as clusters and cluster sampling technique was employed. A total of 184 HIV positive mothers with their infants registered at respective health institutions were recruited and assessed for their infant breastfeeding practices. Descriptive statistics (frequency, mean, median, and standard deviation) were computed to describe the breastfeeding practices of HIV positive mothers. Result Almost all (181 [98.4%]) of the HIV-exposed infants were “ever breastfed”. Among those mothers who had ever breastfed, 158 (87.3%) initiated breastfeeding within an hour of delivery and 157 (85.8%) had fed their babies colostrum while 31 (16.8%) gave prelacteal food to their infants. The prevalence of continued breastfeeding at 1 year was (54.5%) (46.9% for urban mothers and 75% for rural mothers). Seventy-one percent (70.9%) of HIV positive mothers practiced “on demand” breastfeeding. Twenty nine percent of infants aged 6–11 months and 47.8% of infants aged ≥12 months were no longer breastfed. The mean (± standard deviation) duration of breastfeeding was 7.8 (±3.1) months (95% confidence interval: 6.9–8.7). Conclusion The 2010 WHO guidelines and recommendations on breastfeeding duration for HIV positive mothers was not adhered to after 6 months of age. Promotion and counseling of optimal breastfeeding practice for HIV positive mothers based on the updated WHO guideline is an appropriate intervention. However, further research is recommended to evaluate the acceptance of the new 2010 WHO guideline by the health professionals and HIV positive mothers.
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Haile D, Biadgilign S, Azage M. Differentials in vitamin A supplementation among preschool-aged children in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Public Health 2015; 129:748-754. [PMID: 25982948 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.20015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2014] [Revised: 12/13/2014] [Accepted: 03/03/2015] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vitamin A supplementation is one of the best proven, safest and most cost-effective interventions in public health. However, childhood vitamin A supplementation has not reached adequate levels of coverage in developing countries. This study aimed to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation in Ethiopia. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional study with stratified, two-stage cluster design. METHODS Analysis of data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation. Data for 9276 children aged 6-59 months were included in the analysis. Binary and multivariable logistic regression models were used. RESULTS Over half [54.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 53.48-55.51%] of children aged 6-59 months had received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months. Regional differences were found, ranging from 28.1% in Somali to 83.2% in Tigray (P < 0.001). Children in the poorest wealth index category [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.47-0.77], children with mothers who did not attend any antenatal care (ANC) appointments (AOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48-0.67), infants aged 6-11 months (AOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.42-0.65), children with mothers who did not have a postnatal medical check-up (AOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.86) and children with mothers who had not worked in the last year (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.97) were less likely to have received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months. CONCLUSION Coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation was not optimum in Ethiopia and regional differences were found. Lack of a maternal postnatal medical check-up, lack of ANC attendance, poorest wealth index, mother who had not worked in the last year and infant in youngest age group were associated with lower odds of receiving vitamin A supplementation over the last six months. Provision and promotion of ANC and postnatal care, and strengthening routine immunization activity, especially among infants in the youngest age group, are recommended to increase coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation.
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Haile D, Biadgilign S, Azage M. Differentials in vitamin A supplementation among preschool-aged children in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Public Health 2015; 129:748-54. [PMID: 25982948 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2015.03.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2014] [Revised: 12/13/2014] [Accepted: 03/03/2015] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vitamin A supplementation is one of the best proven, safest and most cost-effective interventions in public health. However, childhood vitamin A supplementation has not reached adequate levels of coverage in developing countries. This study aimed to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation in Ethiopia. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional study with stratified, two-stage cluster design. METHODS Analysis of data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation. Data for 9276 children aged 6-59 months were included in the analysis. Binary and multivariable logistic regression models were used. RESULTS Over half [54.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 53.48-55.51%] of children aged 6-59 months had received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months. Regional differences were found, ranging from 28.1% in Somali to 83.2% in Tigray (P < 0.001). Children in the poorest wealth index category [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.47-0.77], children with mothers who did not attend any antenatal care (ANC) appointments (AOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48-0.67), infants aged 6-11 months (AOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.42-0.65), children with mothers who did not have a postnatal medical check-up (AOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.86) and children with mothers who had not worked in the last year (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.97) were less likely to have received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months. CONCLUSION Coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation was not optimum in Ethiopia and regional differences were found. Lack of a maternal postnatal medical check-up, lack of ANC attendance, poorest wealth index, mother who had not worked in the last year and infant in youngest age group were associated with lower odds of receiving vitamin A supplementation over the last six months. Provision and promotion of ANC and postnatal care, and strengthening routine immunization activity, especially among infants in the youngest age group, are recommended to increase coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation.
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Haile D, Belachew T, Berhanu G, Setegn T, Biadgilign S. Complementary feeding practices and associated factors among HIV positive mothers in Southern Ethiopia. JOURNAL OF HEALTH, POPULATION, AND NUTRITION 2015; 34:5. [PMID: 26825277 PMCID: PMC5026011 DOI: 10.1186/s41043-015-0006-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2013] [Accepted: 08/26/2014] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to assess complementary feeding practices and associated factors among HIV exposed infants in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. An institutional based cross-sectional study with cluster random sampling technique was employed and all HIV exposed infants aged 6-17 months found in randomly selected health institutions in Sidama zone, Southern Ethiopia were included. A 24-hour dietary recall and 7-day quasi-food group frequency was used to assess complementary feeding practices. The prevalence of timely initiation of complementary feeding (6-8 months) was 42% [95% CI: (30-54%)]. Of all the HIV exposed infants aged 6-17 months, 40.7% had practiced bottle-feeding. About 65.6% and 53.3% of HIV exposed infants did not receive the recommended number of food groups and frequency of complementary feeding in the last 24 hours respectively. Pulse (plant protein) was consumed by only 22.5% of the infants while only 9.9% of the infants consumed animal source food in the last 24 hours. Presence of infant food prohibition (β = -0.342, P = 0.001) and age of the infant (β = 0.311, P = 0.001) were found to be an independent predictors of dietary diversity. Presence of infant food prohibition (β = -0.181, P = 0.02) and age of infant (β = 0.388, P < 0.001) were also the predictors of 24 hour meal frequency. Having lower educational status [AOR = (0.21, 95% CI (0.062-0.71)] was an independent negative predictor of bottle-feeding practice. Many of the complementary feeding practices like meal frequency; dietary diversity and bottle-feeding were sub-optimal. Nutrition education should be designed for improving complementary feeding practices of HIV exposed infants in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Mothers with higher educational status should be also targeted for nutrition education especially on bottle feeding practice.
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Lakew Y, Biadgilign S, Haile D. Anaemia prevalence and associated factors among lactating mothers in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2005 and 2011 demographic and health surveys. BMJ Open 2015; 5:e006001. [PMID: 25872935 PMCID: PMC4401847 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify factors associated with anaemia in lactating mothers in Ethiopia. DESIGN A cross-sectional secondary analysis of data pooled from two rounds of the 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used. A multivariate logistic regression model was applied to determine the factors associated with anaemia. POPULATION A total of 7332 lactating mothers (2285 from EDHS 2005 and 5047 from EDHS 2011) were included from 11 administrative states of Ethiopia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Lactating mothers considered anaemic if haemoglobin level <12 g/dL. RESULTS The overall prevalence of anaemia among lactating mothers was 22.1% (95% CI 21.13% to 23.03%). The highest prevalence was 48.7% (95% CI 40.80% to 56.62%) found in the Somali region, followed by 43.8% (95% CI 31.83% to 56.87%) in the Afar region. The multivariate statistical model showed that having a husband who had attended primary education (adjusted OR (AOR) 0.79; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.91), working during the 12 months preceding the survey (AOR 0.71; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.80), having a normal maternal body mass index (18.5-24.99 kg/m(2)) (AOR 0.78; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89), being in the middle wealth quintile (AOR 0.83; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.98) or rich wealth quintile (AOR 0.83; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.98), having ever used family planning (AOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.80), having attended antenatal care (ANC) for the indexed pregnancy four times or more (AOR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91), having experienced time variation between the two surveys (AOR 0.73; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.85), and breastfeeding for 2 years (AOR 0.76; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) were factors associated with lower odds of having anaemia in lactating mothers. CONCLUSIONS Anaemia is highly prevalent among lactating mothers, particularly in the pastoralist communities of Somali and Afar. Promoting partner education, improving maternal nutritional status, and creating behavioural change to use family planning and ANC services at health facilities are recommended interventions to reduce the prevalence of anaemia among lactating mothers in Ethiopia.
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Legesse M, Demena M, Mesfin F, Haile D. Prelacteal feeding practices and associated factors among mothers of children aged less than 24 months in Raya Kobo district, North Eastern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study. Int Breastfeed J 2014; 9:189. [PMID: 25648571 PMCID: PMC4308855 DOI: 10.1186/s13006-014-0025-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2014] [Accepted: 12/07/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The harmful infant feeding practices of prelacteal feeding is widely practiced in Ethiopia. Hence, it is vital to appreciate the cultural basis and potential factors on infant feeding practices in different parts of Ethiopia. This study aimed to investigate prelacteal feeding practices and associated factors among mothers of children aged less than 24 months in Raya Kobo district, North Eastern Ethiopia. Methods A quantitative community-based cross-sectional study supplemented by qualitative methods was employed. Sixty hundred thirty (630) mothers of children aged less than 24 months were selected by systematic random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis were employed to identify the factors associated with prelacteal feeding practices. Variables with a p-value < 0.05 were identified as statistically significant factors. Qualitative data was collected by focus group discussion and in-depth interview and analyzed using thematic frameworks. Results The prevalence of prelacteal feeding was 38.8% (95% CI: 35.00%, 43.00%). Home delivery was a risk factor for practicing prelacteal feeding. Those mothers who gave birth at home were seven times more likely to practice prelacteal feeding as compared to mothers who delivered at health institutions (Adjusted Odd Ratio (AOR):7.10; 95% CI: 3.91, 12.98). Mothers who were not aware of the risks associated with prelacteal feeding were nearly four times more likely to practice prelacteal feeding as compared to knowledgeable mothers (AOR: 3.70; 95% CI: 2.44, 5.53). Late initiation of breastfeeding (after one hour of delivery) was also associated with prelacteal feeding practice (AOR: 2.70; 95% CI: 1.78, 3.99). The major reasons stated for providing prelacteal feeding were to prevent “evil eye” and illness and to “clean infant’s stomach”. Conclusion Prelacteal feeding was commonly practiced in Raya Kobo district. Home delivery, delayed commencement of breastfeeding after birth and lack of awareness about the risks associated with prelacteal feeding were predictors of prelacteal feeding. Therefore, strengthening infant feeding counseling about the risks associated with prelacteal feeding, promoting institutional delivery and timely initiation of breastfeeding are important measures for preventing prelacteal feeding in Raya Kobo district.
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