Congestive heart failure in subjects with normal versus reduced left ventricular ejection fraction: prevalence and mortality in a population-based cohort

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the relative proportions of normal versus impaired left ventricular (LV) systolic function among persons with congestive heart failure (CHF) in the community and to compare their long-term mortality during follow-up.

BACKGROUND

Several hospital-based investigations have reported that a high proportion of subjects with CHF have normal LV systolic function. The prevalence and prognosis of CHF with normal LV systolic function in the community are not known.

METHODS

We evaluated the echocardiograms of 73 Framingham Heart Study subjects with CHF (33 women, 40 men, mean age 73 years) and 146 age- and gender-matched control subjects (nested case-control study). Impaired LV systolic function was defined as an LV ejection fraction (LVEF) <0.50.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven CHF cases (51%) had a normal LVEF; 36 (49%) had a reduced LVEF. Women predominated in the former group (65%), whereas men constituted 75% of the latter group. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years, CHF cases with normal LVEF experienced an annual mortality of 8.7% versus 3.0% for matched control subjects (adjusted hazards ratio = 4.06, 95% confidence interval 1.61 to 10.26). Congestive heart failure cases with reduced LVEF had an annual mortality of 18.9% versus 4.1% for matched control subjects (adjusted hazards ratio = 4.31, 95% confidence interval 1.98 to 9.36).

CONCLUSIONS

Normal LV systolic function is often found in persons with CHF in the community and is more common in women than in men. Although CHF cases with normal LVEF have a lower mortality risk than cases with reduced LVEF, they have a fourfold mortality risk compared with control subjects who are free of CHF.

Prevalence and clinical determinants of mitral, tricuspid, and aortic regurgitation (the Framingham Heart Study)

Little information is available on the prevalence and determinants of valvular regurgitation in the general population. This study sought to assess the prevalence and clinical determinants of mitral (MR), tricuspid (TR), and aortic (AR) regurgitation in a population-based cohort. Color Doppler echocardiography was performed in 1,696 men and 1,893 women (aged 54 +/- 10 years) attending a routine examination at the Framingham Study. After excluding technically poor echocardiograms, MR, TR, and AR were qualitatively graded from trace to severe. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association of clinical variables with MR and TR (more than or equal to mild severity) and AR (more than or equal to trace severity). MR and TR of more than or equal to mild severity was seen in 19.0% and 14.8% of men and 19.1% and 18.4% of women, respectively, and AR of more than or equal to trace severity in 13.0% of men and 8.5% of women. The clinical determinants of MR were age (odds ratio [OR] 1.3/9.9 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2 to 1.5), hypertension (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0), and body mass index (OR 0.8/4.3 kg/m2; 95% CI 0.7 to 0.9). The determinants of TR were age (OR 1.5/9.9 years; 95% CI 1.3 to 1.7), body mass index (OR 0.7/4.3 kg/m2; 95% CI 0.6 to 0.8), and female gender (OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.6). The determinants of AR were age (OR 2.3/9.9 years; 95% CI 2.0 to 2.7) and male gender (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1). A substantial proportion of healthy men and women had detectable valvular regurgitation by color Doppler echocardiography. These data provide population-based estimates for comparison with patients taking anorectic drugs.

Why is left ventricular hypertrophy so predictive of morbidity and mortality?

The prevalence, prognosis, and predictors of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) are reviewed, and theories of the pathogenesis of the relation between LVH and poor prognosis are summarized to highlight controversies in the field. In the Framingham Heart Study, which consists largely of white people, echocardiographic LVH has a prevalence of 14% in men and 18% in women. The prevalence of LVH is reported to be elevated in African Americans compared with whites, although the higher prevalence has been attributed to the increased prevalence of hypertension and obesity. Echocardiographic LVH is independently associated with a variety of cardiovascular endpoints, including coronary heart disease and stroke. Furthermore, after adjusting for other cardiovascular disease risk factors, LVH is associated with a doubling in mortality in both white and African American cohorts. Despite the intensive investigation of LVH, there remain many unanswered questions: To what extent do genetic or other factors account for the large portion of the variance in LVH that remains unexplained? What is the prognosis of LVH and left ventricular geometry in a population-based African American cohort? How does the development and progression of LVH relate to other risk factors and their treatment? What is the relation of LVH to poor prognosis? The proposed Jackson Heart Study will help address many important unanswered questions regarding LVH.

Increased left ventricular mass and hypertrophy are associated with increased risk for sudden death

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the relations of echocardiographically determined left ventricular (LV) mass and hypertrophy to the risk of sudden death.

BACKGROUND

Echocardiographic LV hypertrophy is associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. However, little is known about the association of echocardiographic LV hypertrophy with sudden death.

METHODS

We examined the relations of LV mass and hypertrophy to the incidence of sudden death in 3,661 subjects enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study who were > or =40 years of age. The baseline examination was performed from 1979 to 1983 and LV hypertrophy was defined as LV mass (adjusted for height) > 143 g/m in men and > 102 g/m in women. During up to 14 years of follow-up there were 60 sudden deaths. Cox models examined the relations of LV mass and LV hypertrophy to sudden death risk after adjusting for known risk factors.

RESULTS

The prevalence of LV hypertrophy was 21.5%. The risk factor-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for sudden death was 1.45 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.92, p=0.008) for each 50-g/m increment in LV mass. For LV hypertrophy, the risk factor-adjusted HR for sudden death was 2.16 (95% CI 1.22 to 3.81, p=0.008). After excluding the first 4 years of follow-up, both increased LV mass and LV hypertrophy conferred long-term risk of sudden death (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.28, p=0.047 and HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.58 to 6.83, p=0.002, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased LV mass and hypertrophy are associated with increased risk for sudden death after accounting for known risk factors.

Prevalence, incidence, prognosis, and predisposing conditions for atrial fibrillation: population-based estimates

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common of the serious cardiac rhythm disturbances and is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality in the general population. Its prevalence doubles with each advancing decade of age, from 0.5% at age 50-59 years to almost 9% at age 80-89 years. It is also becoming more prevalent, increasing in men aged 65-84 years from 3.2% in 1968-1970 to 9.1% in 1987-1989. This statistically significant increase in men was not explained by an increase in age, valve disease, or myocardial infarctions in the cohort. The incidence of new onset of AF also doubled with each decade of age, independent of the increasing prevalence of known predisposing conditions. Based on 38-year follow-up data from the Framingham Study, men had a 1.5-fold greater risk of developing AF than women after adjustment for age and predisposing conditions. Of the cardiovascular risk factors, only hypertension and diabetes were significant independent predictors of AF, adjusting for age and other predisposing conditions. Cigarette smoking was a significant risk factor in women adjusting only for age (OR = 1.4), but was just short of significance on adjustment for other risk factors. Neither obesity nor alcohol intake was associated with AF incidence in either sex. For men and women, respectively, diabetes conferred a 1.4- and 1.6-fold risk, and hypertension a 1.5- and 1.4-fold risk, after adjusting for other associated conditions. Because of its high prevalence in the population, hypertension was responsible for more AF in the population (14%) than any other risk factor. Intrinsic overt cardiac conditions imposed a substantially higher risk. Adjusting for other relevant conditions, heart failure was associated with a 4.5- and 5.9-fold risk, and valvular heart disease a 1.8- and 3.4-fold risk for AF in men and women, respectively. Myocardial infarction significantly increased the risk factor-adjusted likelihood of AF by 40% in men only. Echocardiographic predictors of nonrheumatic AF include left atrial enlargement (39%/ increase in risk per 5-mm increment), left ventricular fractional shortening (34% per 5% decrement), and left ventricular wall thickness (28% per 4-mm increment). These echocardiographic features offer prognostic information for AF beyond the traditional clinical risk factors. Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy increased risk of AF 3-4-fold after adjusting only for age, but this risk ratio is decreased to 1.4 after adjustment for the other associated conditions. The chief hazard of AF is stroke, the risk of which is increased 4-5-fold. Because of its high prevalence in advanced age, AF assumes great importance as a risk factor for stroke and by the ninth decade becomes a dominant factor. The attributable risk for stroke associated with AF increases steeply from 1.5% at age 50-59 years to 23.5% at age 80-89 years. AF is associated with a doubling of mortality in both sexes, which is decreased to 1.5-1.9-fold after adjusting for associated cardiovascular conditions. Decreased survival associated with AF occurs across a wide range of ages.

Impact of atrial fibrillation on the risk of death: the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) causes substantial morbidity. It is uncertain whether AF is associated with excess mortality independent of associated cardiac conditions and risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined the mortality of subjects 55 to 94 years of age who developed AF during 40 years of follow-up of the original Framingham Heart Study cohort. Of the original 5209 subjects, 296 men and 325 women (mean ages, 74 and 76 years, respectively) developed AF and met eligibility criteria. By pooled logistic regression, after adjustment for age, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, and stroke or transient ischemic attack, AF was associated with an OR for death of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2 to 1.8) in men and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5 to 2.2) in women. The risk of mortality conferred by AF did not significantly vary by age. However, there was a significant AF-sex interaction: AF diminished the female advantage in survival. In secondary multivariate analyses, in subjects free of valvular heart disease and preexisting cardiovascular disease, AF remained significantly associated with excess mortality, with about a doubling of mortality in both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

In subjects from the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study, AF was associated with a 1.5- to 1.9-fold mortality risk after adjustment for the preexisting cardiovascular conditions with which AF was related. The decreased survival seen with AF was present in men and women and across a wide range of ages.

Distribution and categorization of echocardiographic measurements in relation to reference limits: the Framingham Heart Study: formulation of a height- and sex-specific classification and its prospective validation

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread categorization of echocardiographic measurements, there are no standardized guidelines for partitioning values exceeding reference limits.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used regression analyses to develop sex- and height-specific reference limits for cardiac M-mode measurements (left ventricular [LV] mass, LV wall thickness, and LV and left atrial dimensions) in a healthy reference sample (n=1099) from the Framingham Heart Study. We then examined the distribution of measurements in a broad sample (n=4957) and classified the measurements according to increasing deviation from the height- and sex-specific reference limits and the 95th, 98th, and 99th percentile values for the broad sample (categories 0 through 4, respectively). To validate the categorization scheme, we used multivariable proportional-hazards regression to assess the relations of LV mass and LV wall thickness categories to risk of cardiovascular events and the relations of left atrial size to risk of atrial fibrillation. During a mean follow-up period of 7.7 years, 587 subjects developed new cardiovascular disease events, and 166 subjects developed new-onset atrial fibrillation. After adjustment for known risk factors, there was a 1.2- and 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular disease events per category of LV wall thickness and LV mass, respectively, and a 1.6-fold risk of atrial fibrillation per category of left atrial size.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a large community-based study sample, we propose a classification scheme that provides a standardized and validated framework for partitioning echocardiographic measurements. If adopted, the categorization scheme should promote uniformity in describing measurements among echocardiographic laboratories and enhance the comprehensibility of measurements to clinicians.

Left ventricular dilatation and the risk of congestive heart failure in people without myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular dilatation is a well-recognized precursor of ventricular dysfunction and congestive heart failure after myocardial infarction. The effect of left ventricular dilatation on the risk of heart failure in people initially free of myocardial infarction is not known.

METHODS

We examined the relation of the left ventricular end-diastolic and end-systolic internal dimensions, as measured by M-mode echocardiography, to the risk of congestive heart failure in 4744 subjects (2083 men and 2661 women) who had not sustained a myocardial infarction and who were free of congestive heart failure. We used sex-stratified proportional-hazards regression to assess the association between base-line left ventricular internal dimensions and the subsequent risk of congestive heart failure, after adjusting for age, blood pressure, hypertension treatment, body-mass index, diabetes, valve disease, and interim myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Over an 11-year follow-up period, congestive heart failure developed in 74 subjects (38 men and 36 women). The risk-factor-adjusted hazard ratio for congestive heart failure was 1.47 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.25 to 1.73) for an increment of 1 SD in the left ventricular end-diastolic dimension, indexed for height. We obtained similar results using the left ventricular end-systolic dimension (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.24 to 1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in left ventricular internal dimension is a risk factor for congestive heart failure in men and women who have not had a myocardial infarction. Knowledge of the left ventricular dimension improves predictions of the risk of congestive heart failure made on the basis of traditional risk factors, perhaps by aiding in the identification of subjects with subclinical left ventricular dysfunction.

Stroke severity in atrial fibrillation. The Framingham Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke occurring with atrial fibrillation (AF) is more likely to be fatal or more severe than non-AF stroke based on clinical series, but data from prospective epidemiological studies are sparse and inconsistent.

METHODS

Over 40-year follow-up of the original 5070 Framingham cohort, 501 initial ischemic strokes, including 103 with AF, were analyzed. Stroke severity was rated as none, mild, moderate, severe, or fatal. Since 1981, functional status indicated by the Barthel index has been evaluated acutely and at 3, 6, and 12 months. Severity and functional status of AF strokes were compared with non-AF strokes using chi 2 test and Student's t test. Thirty-day mortality was assessed by logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

AF was associated with increased stroke severity (P = .048). Thirty-day mortality was greater in AF strokes than in non-AF strokes (25% versus 14%). The multivariate-adjusted odds ratio for 30-day mortality for AF subjects was 1.84 (95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 3.27). Since 1981, follow-up was available for 150 initial ischemic strokes, including 30 with AF. Compared with the non-AF group, the AF group had poorer survival and more recurrences during 1 year of follow-up. The AF subjects had lower mean Barthel index scores acutely (29.6 versus 58.6, P < .001) and at 3 months (P = .005), 6 months (P = .003), and 12 months (P = .130) after stroke among survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic stroke associated with AF was nearly twice as likely to be fatal as non-AF stroke. Recurrence was more frequent, and functional deficits were more likely to be severe among survivors. Since stroke is usually the initial manifestation of embolism in AF, prevention is critical to reducing disability and mortality.

Doppler diastolic filling indexes in relation to disease states

This study compares mean Doppler-derived diastolic filling indexes in a variety of disease states in a large, population-based sample. Pulse-wave Doppler was used to examine 880 eligible participants of the Framingham Heart Study. Peak velocity of early flow and late flow, ratio of early to late peak velocities, atrial filling fraction, and early filling wave acceleration and deceleration times were obtained. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed comparing mean values for individuals with hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, cardiovascular disease, and pulmonary disease. Hypertension was associated with a greater peak velocity late flow (0.027 m/sec; 95% confidence interval, 0.006, 0.047; p = 0.011), and diabetes was associated with a larger mean deceleration time (0.12 sec, confidence interval, 0.002, 0.021; p = 0.016). In multivariate analyses, hypertension continued to show a strong association with altered Doppler diastolic filling patterns, p value 0.009, whereas in diabetes, the multivariate p value was 0.28.

Congestive heart failure with normal left ventricular systolic function. Clinical approaches to the diagnosis and treatment of diastolic heart failure

The syndrome of congestive heart failure with preserved left ventricular systolic function is common in clinical practice. The signs and symptoms of the disorder are similar to those of congestive heart failure with left ventricular systolic dysfunction, underscoring a need for routine evaluation of left and right ventricular systolic function in patients with congestive heart failure. The syndrome may be related to anatomic abnormalities that increase the resistance to ventricular filling, or to physiologic abnormalities of myocardial relaxation or compliance. Advancing age, often in association with hypertension, coronary artery disease, tachycardia, and atrial fibrillation, is commonly associated with the disorder. Randomized controlled clinical trials are needed to evaluate the efficacy of various therapeutic agents in reducing the risks associated with diastolic heart failure.

Prevalence, clinical features and prognosis of diastolic heart failure: an epidemiologic perspective

Numerous reports suggest that about one-third of patients with congestive heart failure do not have any abnormality of left ventricular systolic function. These patients presumably have heart failure on the basis of ventricular diastolic dysfunction. Our objective was to develop a comprehensive overview of published reports of the prevalence, clinical features and prognosis of diastolic heart failure and to offer recommendations for future studies. Thirty-one studies of patients with congestive heart failure with normal left ventricular systolic function were published in the time period from January 1970 through March 1995. These studies were identified with the use of computer-based searches in relevant data bases. Among patients with congestive heart failure, the prevalence of normal ventricular systolic performance in the published reports varies widely from 13% to 74%; the reported annual mortality rate also varies from 1.3% to 17.5%. The criteria for congestive heart failure, its chronicity and the age of the study sample affect the reported prevalence and prognosis of the disorder. The clinical signs and symptoms of diastolic heart failure are similar to those of patients with systolic heart failure, underscoring the need for evaluation of ventricular systolic function in patients with congestive heart failure. In the absence of any large-scale randomized clinical trial targeting these patients, the optimal treatment of diastolic heart failure is unclear. We conclude that the heterogeneity in previous studies of diastolic heart failure hinders the comparison of published reports. There is a need to conduct prospective, community-based investigations to better characterize the incidence, prevalence and natural history of diastolic heart failure. Randomized clinical trials are needed to determine optimal treatment strategies.

Echocardiographic reference values for aortic root size: the Framingham Heart Study

The objectives of this study were to develop sex-, age-, and body size-specific nomograms and partition values for upper and lower limits of M-mode echocardiographic aortic root measurements derived from a large population-based cohort. The study sample consisted of 1433 male and 1816 female participants in the Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study who were normotensive and free of clinically apparent heart disease at the baseline examination. Aortic root measurements were obtained by M-mode echocardiography by a leading-edge to leading-edge technique. The relations of age and measures of body size with aortic root dimensions were evaluated with sex-specific correlations and multiple stepwise linear regression analyses. Age was the most important determinant of aortic root size in both men and women in the multivariable regression models. Models with age and body surface area yielded R2 values of 0.214 in men and 0.222 in women. Models with age and height yielded lower R2 values of 0.136 in men and 0.181 in women. Thus aortic root dimensions vary widely with the age, sex, and body size of individuals. Sex-specific reference nomograms of aortic root dimensions in relation to age and body size (body surface area or height) are presented to facilitate the detection of abnormalities of aortic root size.

Newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and acute stroke. The Framingham Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

When atrial fibrillation (AF) is first documented at the time of onset of acute stroke, it is difficult to establish a temporal relationship between AF and stroke. Did AF precede and precipitate the stroke, or did the arrhythmia appear as a result of stroke? Following the course of the newly diagnosed AF may help to clarify this relationship.

METHODS

The Framingham Study cohort of 5070 members, aged 30 to 62 years and free of cardiovascular disease at entry, has been under surveillance for the development of cardiovascular disease, including stroke. We followed the course of AF, which was documented for the first time on or soon after hospital admission for stroke.

RESULTS

During 38 years of follow-up, 115 of 656 initial stroke events occurred in association with AF: 89 had previously documented AF, 21 had AF discovered for the first time on admission for the stroke, and 5 were admitted with sinus rhythm but developed AF after admission. Of the 21 subjects with AF diagnosed on admission, in 12 (57%) AF persisted thereafter (chronic AF). Among the other 9 persons presenting with nonpersistant AF, paroxysms recurred in 3 (14%) and became chronic AF in 4 (19%). AF was transient and did not recur in only 2 persons (10%). Of the 5 subjects who developed AF after admission, AF was sustained from the initial diagnosis in 2 and recurred in paroxysms or became established as chronic in 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Ninety-two percent (24/26) of subjects presenting with newly discovered AF at the time of acute stroke continued to have this rhythm disturbance in a chronic or paroxysmal form. In only 2 subjects (8%) was the arrhythmia short-lived and nonrecurrent. These follow-up data suggest that in most instances AF was probably the precipitant rather than the consequence of stroke.

Left atrial size and the risk of stroke and death. The Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

The medical literature contains conflicting reports on the association of left atrial (LA) enlargement with risk of stroke. The relation of LA size to risk of stroke and death in the general population remains largely unexplored.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Subjects 50 years of age and older from the Framingham Heart Study were studied to assess the relations between echocardiographic LA size and risk of stroke and death. During 8 years of follow-up, 64 of 1371 (4.7%) men and 73 of 1728 (4.2%) women sustained a stroke, and 296 (21.6%) men and 271 (15.7%) women died. Sex-specific Cox proportional-hazards models were adjusted for age, hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, smoking, ECG left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy, and congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction. After multivariable adjustment, for every 10-mm increase in LA size, the relative risk of stroke was 2.4 in men (95% CI, 1.6 to 3.7) and 1.4 in women (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.1); the relative risk of death was 1.3 in men (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5) and 1.4 in women (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.7). Adjusting for ECG LV mass/height attenuated the relation of LA size to stroke and death.

CONCLUSIONS

After multivariable adjustment, LA enlargement remained a significant predictor of stroke in men and death in both sexes. The relation of LA enlargement to stroke and death appears to be partially mediated by LV mass.

Influence of blood pressure on left atrial size. The Framingham Heart Study

Increased left atrial size has been identified as a precursor of atrial fibrillation and of stroke once atrial fibrillation is manifest. Conflicting data exist regarding the effect of high blood pressure on left atrial size. Our objective was to evaluate the association of contemporary and long-term measures of blood pressure with echocardiographically determined left atrial size in a large, population-based cohort. The study sample consisted of 1849 male and 2152 female participants of the Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study. All analyses were sex specific. In correlation analyses, systolic and pulse pressures were identified as statistically significant determinants of left atrial size after adjustment for age and body mass index, although the magnitudes of these relations were very modest (partial r < or = .10). Multivariable linear regression models showed the relative contributions of the pressure variables to the prediction of left atrial size to be substantially less than those of age and, in particular, body mass index. Furthermore, inclusion of left ventricular mass in these multivariable models eliminated or attenuated the associations of the pressure variables with left atrial size. In logistic analyses, increasing levels of the pressure variables were significantly predictive of left atrial enlargement. Subjects with 8-year average systolic pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher were twice as likely to have left atrial enlargement as those with values of 110 mm Hg or lower. Overall, in this population-based study sample, increased levels of systolic and pulse pressures (but not diastolic or mean arterial pressures) were significantly associated with increased left atrial size.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Low serum thyrotropin concentrations as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation in older persons

BACKGROUND

Low serum thyrotropin concentrations are a sensitive indicator of hyperthyroidism but can also occur in persons who have no clinical manifestations of the disorder. We studied whether low serum thyrotropin concentrations in clinically euthyroid older persons are a risk factor for subsequent atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

We studied 2007 persons (814 men and 1193 women) 60 years of age or older who did not have atrial fibrillation in order to determine the frequency of this arrhythmia during a 10-year follow-up period. The subjects were classified according to their serum thyrotropin concentrations: those with low values (< or = 0.1 mU per liter; 61 subjects); those with slightly low values (> 0.1 to 0.4 mU per liter; 187 subjects); those with normal values (> 0.4 to 5.0 mU per liter; 1576 subjects); and those with high values (> 5.0 mU per liter; 183 subjects).

RESULTS

During the 10-year follow-up period, atrial fibrillation occurred in 13 persons with low initial values for serum thyrotropin, 23 with slightly low values, 133 with normal values, and 23 with high values. The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation at 10 years was 28 percent among the subjects with low serum thyrotropin values (< or = 0.1 mU per liter), as compared with 11 percent among those with normal values; the age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation was 28 per 1000 person-years among those with low values and 10 per 1000 person-years among those with normal values (P = 0.005). After adjustment for other known risk factors, the relative risk of atrial fibrillation in elderly subjects with low serum thyrotropin concentrations, as compared with those with normal concentrations, was 3.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.7 to 5.5; P < 0.001). The 10-year incidence of atrial fibrillation in the groups with slightly low and high serum thyrotropin values was not significantly different from that in the group with normal values.

CONCLUSIONS

Among people 60 years of age or older, a low serum thyrotropin concentration is associated with a threefold higher risk that atrial fibrillation will develop in the subsequent decade.

Left ventricular mass and risk of stroke in an elderly cohort. The Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of echocardiographically determined left ventricular mass (LVM) with incidence of stroke or transient ischemic attack in an elderly cohort.

DESIGN

Cohort study with a follow-up period of 8 years.

SETTING

Population-based sample.

SUBJECTS

Elderly original cohort subjects of the Framingham Heart Study who were free of cerebrovascular disease and atrial fibrillation at the 16th biennial examination and who had adequate echocardiograms. This group consisted of 447 men (mean age, 67.8 years; range, 60 to 90 years) and 783 women (mean age, 69.2 years; range 59 to 90 years).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-adjusted 8-year incidence of stroke was examined as a function of baseline quartiles of LVM-to-height ratio. Proportional hazards regression was used in multivariate analyses to assess risk of stroke as a function of LVM-to-height ratio quartile, adjusting for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, diabetes, cigarette smoking, and blood lipid levels.

RESULTS

Among the 1230 subjects eligible, 89 cerebrovascular disease events (62 strokes and 27 transient ischemic attacks) occurred during follow-up. In men, 8-year age-adjusted incidence of cerebrovascular events was 18.4% in the highest quartile of LVM-to-height ratio and 5.2% in the lowest quartile. Corresponding values in women were 12.2% and 2.9%. The hazard ratio for cerebrovascular events comparing highest to lowest quartile of LVM-to-height ratio was 2.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39 to 5.36) after adjusting for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, diabetes, cigarette smoking, and the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. After adjusting for age, sex, and cardiovascular disease risk factors, the hazard ratio for cerebrovascular events was 1.45 (95% CI, 1.17 to 1.80) for each quartile increment of LVM-to-height ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

Echocardiographically determined LVM-to-height ratio offers prognostic information beyond that provided by traditional cerebrovascular disease risk factors. Echocardiography provides information that facilitates identification of individuals at high risk for stroke and transient ischemic attack.

Independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation in a population-based cohort. The Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

The Framingham Heart Study.

SUBJECTS

A total of 2090 men and 2641 women members of the original cohort, free of a history of atrial fibrillation, between the ages of 55 and 94 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sex-specific multiple logistic regression models to identify independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation, including age, smoking, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertension, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and valve disease.

RESULTS

During up to 38 years of follow-up, 264 men and 298 women developed atrial fibrillation. After adjusting for age and other risk factors for atrial fibrillation, men had a 1.5 times greater risk of developing atrial fibrillation than women. In the full multivariable model, the odds ratio (OR) of atrial fibrillation for each decade of advancing age was 2.1 for men and 2.2 for women (P < .0001). In addition, after multivariable adjustment, diabetes (OR, 1.4 for men and 1.6 for women), hypertension (OR, 1.5 for men and 1.4 for women), congestive heart failure (OR, 4.5 for men and 5.9 for women), and valve disease (OR, 1.8 for men and 3.4 for women) were significantly associated with risk for atrial fibrillation in both sexes. Myocardial infarction (OR, 1.4) was significantly associated with the development of atrial fibrillation in men. Women were significantly more likely than men to have valvular heart disease as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation. The multivariable models were largely unchanged after eliminating subjects with valvular heart disease.

CONCLUSION

In addition to intrinsic cardiac causes such as valve disease and congestive heart failure, risk factors for cardiovascular disease also predispose to atrial fibrillation. Modification of risk factors for cardiovascular disease may have the added benefit of diminishing the incidence of atrial fibrillation.

Independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation in a population-based cohort. The Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

The Framingham Heart Study.

SUBJECTS

A total of 2090 men and 2641 women members of the original cohort, free of a history of atrial fibrillation, between the ages of 55 and 94 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sex-specific multiple logistic regression models to identify independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation, including age, smoking, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertension, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and valve disease.

RESULTS

During up to 38 years of follow-up, 264 men and 298 women developed atrial fibrillation. After adjusting for age and other risk factors for atrial fibrillation, men had a 1.5 times greater risk of developing atrial fibrillation than women. In the full multivariable model, the odds ratio (OR) of atrial fibrillation for each decade of advancing age was 2.1 for men and 2.2 for women (P < .0001). In addition, after multivariable adjustment, diabetes (OR, 1.4 for men and 1.6 for women), hypertension (OR, 1.5 for men and 1.4 for women), congestive heart failure (OR, 4.5 for men and 5.9 for women), and valve disease (OR, 1.8 for men and 3.4 for women) were significantly associated with risk for atrial fibrillation in both sexes. Myocardial infarction (OR, 1.4) was significantly associated with the development of atrial fibrillation in men. Women were significantly more likely than men to have valvular heart disease as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation. The multivariable models were largely unchanged after eliminating subjects with valvular heart disease.

CONCLUSION

In addition to intrinsic cardiac causes such as valve disease and congestive heart failure, risk factors for cardiovascular disease also predispose to atrial fibrillation. Modification of risk factors for cardiovascular disease may have the added benefit of diminishing the incidence of atrial fibrillation.

Echocardiographic predictors of nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. The Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Although structural heart disease is often present in patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation, the echocardiographic precursors of atrial fibrillation have not been reported previously. In this elderly, population-based cohort, our objective was to examine prospectively the echocardiographic predictors of nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Subjects in the Framingham Heart Study were routinely evaluated with M-mode echocardiography; 1924 subjects, ranging in age from 59 to 90 years, comprised the population at risk. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to analyze the association of selected echocardiographic features with atrial fibrillation risk after adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and valvular heart disease. During a mean follow-up interval of 7.2 years, 154 subjects (8.0%) developed atrial fibrillation. Multivariable stepwise analysis identified left atrial size (hazard ratio [HR] per 5-mm increment, 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 1.68), left ventricular fractional shortening (HR per 5% decrement, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.66), and sum of septal and left ventricular posterior wall thickness (HR per 4-mm increment, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.60) as independent echocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation. For each of the echocardiographic predictors, risk increased progressively over successive quartiles. Moreover, risk increased markedly when highest-risk-quartile measurements for these features were present in combination; the cumulative 8-year age-adjusted atrial fibrillation rates were 7.3% and 17.0%, respectively, when one and two or more highest-risk-quartile features were present, compared with 3.7% when none was present.

CONCLUSIONS

In this elderly, population-based sample, left atrial enlargement, increased left ventricular wall thickness, and reduced left ventricular fractional shortening were predictive of risk for nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. These echocardiographic precursors offer prognostic information beyond that provided by traditional clinical atrial fibrillation risk factors.

Impact of heart rate and PR interval on Doppler indexes of left ventricular diastolic filling in an elderly cohort (the Framingham Heart Study)

The relations of heart rate and PR interval to Doppler-derived diastolic indexes were examined in 260 men (mean age 75 years) and 462 women (mean age 76 years) from the Framingham Heart Study. Subjects receiving any antihypertensive or cardiac medications were excluded from eligibility; those with mitral stenosis or prosthesis, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, arrhythmia, left bundle branch block, congestive heart failure, previous myocardial infarction, and technically inadequate Doppler study were also excluded. Peak velocity of early (E) and late (A) diastolic left ventricular (LV) filling, ratio of peak velocities E/A, ratio of time velocity integrals E/A, and atrial filling fraction were studied by multivariable analyses adjusting for age, sex, blood pressure, heart rate and PR interval. Heart rate was a major determinant of all 5 Doppler indexes of diastolic filling; heart rate was inversely associated with peak velocity E, E/A, and time velocity integral E/A, and was directly associated with peak velocity A and atrial filling fraction. PR interval was inversely associated with time velocity integral E/A (p < 0.01) and directly associated with atrial filling fraction. The results were largely unaltered after further adjustment for LV wall thickness, LV end-diastolic diameter and left atrial diameter (in addition to age, sex and blood pressure). Heart rate and PR interval are independent contributors to Doppler-assessed LV diastolic filling in the elderly. The atrial contribution to LV filling depends on its timing in the cardiac cycle and on heart rate. Failure to account for heart rate and PR interval may lead to inappropriate assessment of Doppler diastolic filling.