Clinical outcome indicators in chronic hepatitis B and C: A primer for value-based medicine in hepatology

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) are major health problems that require complex and costly treatments. Liver-specific clinical outcome indicators (COIs) able to assist both clinicians and administrators in improving the value of care are presently lacking. The Value-Based Medicine in Hepatology (VBMH) study aims to fill this gap, devising and testing a set of COIs for CLD, that could be easily collected during clinical practice. Here we report the COIs generated and recorded for patients with HBV or HCV infection at different stages of the disease.

METHODS/RESULTS

In the first phase of VBMH study, COIs were identified, based on current international guidelines and literature, using a modified Delphi method and a RAND 9-point appropriateness scale. In the second phase, COIs were tested in an observational, longitudinal, prospective, multicentre study based in Lombardy, Italy. Eighteen COIs were identified for HBV and HCV patients. Patients with CLD secondary to HBV (547) or HCV (1391) were enrolled over an 18-month period and followed for a median of 4 years. The estimation of the proposed COIs was feasible in the real-word clinical practice and COI values compared well with literature data. Further, the COIs were able to capture the impact of new effective treatments like direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in the clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

The COIs efficiently measured clinical outcomes at different stages of CLDs. While specific clinical practice settings and related healthcare systems may modify their implementation, these indicators will represent an important component of the tools for a value-based approach in hepatology and will positively affect care delivery.

Plasma expanders for people with cirrhosis and large ascites treated with abdominal paracentesis

BACKGROUND

Plasma volume expanders are used in connection to paracentesis in people with cirrhosis to prevent reduction of effective plasma volume, which may trigger deleterious effect on haemodynamic balance, and increase morbidity and mortality. Albumin is considered the standard product against which no plasma expansion or other plasma expanders, e.g. other colloids (polygeline , dextrans, hydroxyethyl starch solutions, fresh frozen plasma), intravenous infusion of ascitic fluid, crystalloids, or mannitol have been compared. However, the benefits and harms of these plasma expanders are not fully clear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of any plasma volume expanders such as albumin, other colloids (polygeline, dextrans, hydroxyethyl starch solutions, fresh frozen plasma), intravenous infusion of ascitic fluid, crystalloids, or mannitol versus no plasma volume expander or versus another plasma volume expander for paracentesis in people with cirrhosis and large ascites.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, CNKI, VIP, Wanfang, Science Citation Index Expanded, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index until January 2019. Furthermore, we searched FDA, EMA, WHO (last search January 2019), www.clinicaltrials.gov/, and www.controlled-trials.com/ for ongoing trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials, no matter their design or year of publication, publication status, and language, assessing the use of any type of plasma expander versus placebo, no intervention, or a different plasma expander in connection with paracentesis for ascites in people with cirrhosis. We considered quasi-randomised, retrieved with the searches for randomised clinical trials only, for reports on harms.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We calculated the risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) using the fixed-effect model and the random-effects model meta-analyses, based on the intention-to-treat principle, whenever possible. If the fixed-effect and random-effects models showed different results, then we made our conclusions based on the analysis with the highest P value (the more conservative result). We assessed risks of bias of the individual trials using predefined bias risk domains. We assessed the certainty of the evidence at an outcome level, using GRADE, and constructed 'Summary of Findings' tables for seven of our review outcomes.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 27 randomised clinical trials for inclusion in this review (24 published as full-text articles and 3 as abstracts). Five of the trials, with 271 participants, assessed plasma expanders (albumin in four trials and ascitic fluid in one trial) versus no plasma expander. The remaining 22 trials, with 1321 participants, assessed one type of plasma expander, i.e. dextran, hydroxyethyl starch, polygeline, intravenous infusion of ascitic fluid, crystalloids, or mannitol versus another type of plasma expander, i.e. albumin in 20 of these trials and polygeline in one trial. Twenty-five trials provided data for quantitative meta-analysis. According to the Child-Pugh classification, most participants were at an intermediate to advanced stage of liver disease in the absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, recent gastrointestinal bleeding, infections, and hepatic encephalopathy. All trials were assessed as at overall high risk of bias. Ten trials seemed not to have been funded by industry; twelve trials were considered unclear about funding; and five trials were considered funded by industry or a for-profit institution.We found no evidence of a difference in effect between plasma expansion versus no plasma expansion on mortality (RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.06 to 4.83; 248 participants; 4 trials; very low certainty); renal impairment (RR 0.32, 95% CI 0.02 to 5.88; 181 participants; 4 trials; very low certainty); other liver-related complications (RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.79 to 3.27; 248 participants; 4 trials; very low certainty); and non-serious adverse events (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.32 to 3.40; 158 participants; 3 trials; very low certainty). Two of the trials stated that no serious adverse events occurred while the remaining trials did not report on this outcome. No trial reported data on health-related quality of life.We found no evidence of a difference in effect between experimental plasma expanders versus albumin on mortality (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.30; 1014 participants; 14 trials; very low certainty); serious adverse events (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.10 to 8.30; 118 participants; 2 trials; very low certainty); renal impairment (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.91; 1107 participants; 17 trials; very low certainty); other liver-related complications (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.48; 1083 participants; 16 trials; very low certainty); and non-serious adverse events (RR 1.37, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.85; 977 participants; 14 trials; very low certainty). We found no data on heath-related quality of life and refractory ascites.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review and meta-analysis did not find any benefits or harms of plasma expanders versus no plasma expander or of one plasma expander such as polygeline, dextrans, hydroxyethyl starch, intravenous infusion of ascitic fluid, crystalloids, or mannitol versus albumin on primary or secondary outcomes. The data originated from few, small, mostly short-term trials at high risks of systematic errors (bias) and high risks of random errors (play of chance). GRADE assessments concluded that the evidence was of very low certainty. Therefore, we can neither demonstrate or discard any benefit of plasma expansion versus no plasma expansion, and differences between one plasma expander versus another plasma expander.Larger trials at low risks of bias are needed to assess the role of plasma expanders in connection with paracentesis. Such trials should be conducted according to the SPIRIT guidelines and reported according to the CONSORT guidelines.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System That Includes Corrected QT Interval for Risk Analysis of Patients With Cirrhosis and Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The electrocardiographic QT interval frequently is prolonged in patients with cirrhosis. Acute gastrointestinal bleeding further prolongs corrected QT (QTc) in patients with cirrhosis, which has been associated with an increased risk of death within 6 weeks. We aimed to confirm these findings and develop a mortality risk index that incorporates QTc.

METHODS

We collected data from 274 patients with cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding from any cause admitted to a hospital in Bologna, Italy, from January 2001 through December 2012 (training set). We used logistic regression analysis to identify patient factors associated with death within 6 weeks (6-week mortality). We validated our findings by using data from 200 patients with cirrhosis and gastrointestinal bleeding treated at 2 separate hospitals in Italy, from 2001 through 2016 and 2007 through 2012. Our primary aim was to confirm the prognostic effects of prolonged QTc in a large population of patients and develop a 6-week mortality risk score for acute gastrointestinal bleeding from any cause that incorporates the QTc interval.

RESULTS

In the training set, QTc greater than 456 ms, the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score, previous bleeding, and serum albumin concentration were associated independently with 6-week mortality. We combined these parameters to create a risk scoring system that we named MELD-Na acute gastrointestinal bleeding (MELDNa-AGIB). In the validation set, the MELDNa-AGIB identified patients who died within 6 weeks with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.888; this value was higher than that of the MELD score (AUROC, 0.838; P = .031), MELD score with updated calibration (AUROC, 0.837; P = .029), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (AUROC, 0.789; P = .004), D'Amico score (AUROC, 0.761; P = .003), and Augustin score (AUROC, 0.792; P = .001), with a net reclassification improvement better than the MELD-Na score (0.266; P = .045). In calibration, the MELDNa-AGIB produced a high score in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = .947), which was superior to that of MELD-Na (P = .146). In the training set, only 6.3% of patients with MELDNa-AGIB scores of 4 or less died within 6 weeks. Among patients with a scores of 9, 16, and 25 or higher, 15.5%, 41.5%, and 81% or more patients died within 6 weeks, respectively. The probability of survival progressively and significantly decreased with increasing scores in the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed QTc as an independent predictor of 6-week mortality in a large population of patients with cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding. The combination of QTc, MELD-Na, previous bleeding, and serum albumin (the MELDNa-AGIB score) accurately determines the risk of 6-week mortality, providing timely identification of patients at very high risk of death.

Delisting HCV-infected liver transplant candidates who improved after viral eradication: Outcome 2 years after delisting

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

Treating patients with decompensated cirrhosis with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy while on the waiting list for liver transplantation results in substantial improvement of liver function allowing 1 in 4 patients to be removed from the waiting list or delisted, as reported in a previous study promoted by the European Liver and Intestine Transplant Association (ELITA). The aim of this study was to report on clinical outcomes of delisted patients, including mortality risk, hepatocellular carcinoma development and clinical decompensation requiring relisting.

METHODS

One hundred and forty-two HCV-positive patients on the liver transplant waiting list for decompensated cirrhosis, negative for hepatocellular carcinoma, between February 2014 and June 2015 were treated with DAA therapy and were prospectively followed up.

RESULTS

Forty-four patients (30.9%) were delisted following clinical improvement. This percentage was higher than in the original study because of a number of patients being delisted long after starting DAAs. The median Child-Pugh and MELD score of delisted patients was 5.5 and 9 respectively. Four patients were relisted, because of HCC diagnosis in 1 case and 3 patients developed ascites. One further patient died (2.4%) because of rapidly progressing hepatocellular carcinoma twenty-two months after delisting. Of the 70 patients who received a liver graft, 9 died (13%).

CONCLUSIONS

Antiviral therapy allows for a long-term improvement of liver function and the delisting of one-third of treated patients with risk of liver-related complications after delisting being very low.

Impact of DAAs on liver transplantation: Major effects on the evolution of indications and results. An ELITA study based on the ELTR registry

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have dramatically improved the outcome of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection including those with decompensated cirrhosis (DC). We analyzed the evolution of indications and results of liver transplantation (LT) in the past 10 years in Europe, focusing on the changes induced by the advent of DAAs.

METHODS

This is a cohort study based on data from the European Liver Transplant Registry (ELTR). Data of adult LTs performed between January 2007 to June 2017 for HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), alcohol (EtOH) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) were analyzed. The period was divided into different eras: interferon (IFN/RBV; 2007-2010), protease inhibitor (PI; 2011-2013) and second generation DAA (DAA; 2014-June 2017).

RESULTS

Out of a total number of 60,527 LTs, 36,382 were performed in patients with HCV, HBV, EtOH and NASH. The percentage of LTs due to HCV-related liver disease varied significantly over time (p <0.0001), decreasing from 22.8% in the IFN/RBV era to 17.4% in the DAA era, while those performed for NASH increased significantly (p <0.0001). In the DAA era, the percentage of LTs for HCV decreased significantly (p <0.0001) from 21.1% (first semester 2014) to 10.6% (first semester 2017). This decline was more evident in patients with DC (HCV-DC, -58.0%) than in those with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV (HCV-HCC, -41.2%). Conversely, three-year survival of LT recipients with HCV-related liver disease improved from 65.1% in the IFN/RBV era to 76.9% in the DAA era, and is now comparable to the survival of recipients with HBV infection (p = 0.3807).

CONCLUSIONS

In Europe, the number of LTs due to HCV infection is rapidly declining for both HCV-DC and HCV-HCC indications and post-LT survival has dramatically improved over the last three years. This is the first comprehensive study of the overall impact of DAA treatment for HCV on liver transplantation in Europe.

LAY SUMMARY

After the advent of direct-acting antivirals in 2014, a dramatic decline was observed in the number of liver transplants performed both in patients with decompensated cirrhosis due to hepatitis C virus (HCV), minus 60%, and in those with hepatocellular carcinoma associated with HCV, minus 41%. Furthermore, this is the first large-scale study demonstrating that the survival of liver transplant recipients with HCV-related liver disease has dramatically improved over the last three years and is now comparable to the survival of recipients with hepatitis B virus infection. The reduction in HCV-related indications for LT means that there is a greater availability of livers, at least 600 every year, which can be allocated to patients with indications other than HCV.

The optimal timing of hepatitis C therapy in liver transplant-eligible patients: Cost-effectiveness analysis of new opportunities

Different strategies of DAAs treatment are currently possible both pre- and postliver transplantation (LT). Clinical and economic consequences of these strategies still need to be adequately investigated; this study aims at assessing their cost-effectiveness. A decision analytical model was created to simulate the progression of HCV-infected patients listed for decompensated cirrhosis (DCC) or for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Three DAAs treatment strategies were compared: (i) a 12-week course of DAAs prior to transplantation (PRE-LT), (ii) a 4-week course of DAAs starting at the time of transplantation (PERI-LT) and (iii) a 12-week course of DAAs administered at disease recurrence (POST-LT). The population was substratified according to HCC presence and, in those without HCC, according to the MELD score at listing. Data on DAAs effectiveness were estimated using a cohort of patients still followed by 11 transplant centres of the European Liver and Intestine Transplant Association and by data available in the literature. In this study, PRE-LT treatment strategy was dominant for DCC patients with MELD<16 and cost-effective for those with MELD16-20, while POST-LT strategy emerged as cost-effective for DCC patients with MELD>20 and for those with HCC. Sensitivity analyses confirmed PRE-LT as the cost-effective strategy for patients with MELD≤20. In conclusion, PRE-LT treatment is cost-effective for patients with MELD≤20 without HCC, while treatments after LT are cost-effective in cirrhotic patients with MELD>20 and in those with HCC. It is worth reminding, though, that the final choice of a specific regimen at the patient level will have to be personalized based on clinical, social and transplant-related factors.

Delisting of liver transplant candidates with chronic hepatitis C after viral eradication: A European study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

All oral direct acting antivirals (DAA) have been shown to improve the liver function of patients with decompensated cirrhosis but it is presently unknown whether this clinical improvement may lead to the delisting of some patients. The aim of this study was to assess if and which patients can be first inactivated due to clinically improvement and subsequently delisted in a real life setting.

METHODS

103 consecutive listed patients without hepatocellular carcinoma were treated with different DAA combinations in 11 European centres between February 2014 and February 2015.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of inactivated and delisted patients by competing risk analysis was 15.5% and 0% at 24weeks, 27.6% and 10.3% at 48weeks, 33.3% and 19.2% at 60weeks. The 34 patients who were inactivated showed a median improvement of 3.4 points for MELD (delta MELD, p<0.0001) and 2 points for Child-Pugh (CP) (delta-CP, p<0.0001). Three variables emerged from the most parsimonious multivariate competing risk model as predictors of inactivation for clinical improvement, namely, baseline MELD classes (MELD 16-20: HR=0.120; p=0.0005, MELD >20:HR=0.042; p<0.0001), delta MELD (HR=1.349; p<0.0001) and delta albumin (HR=0.307; p=0.0069) both assessed after 12weeks of DAA therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that all oral DAAs were able to reverse liver dysfunction and favoured the inactivation and delisting of about one patient out-of-three and one patient out-of-five in 60weeks, respectively. Patients with lower MELD scores had higher chances to be delisted. The longer term benefits of therapy need to be ascertained.

LAY SUMMARY

The excellent efficacy and safety profile of the new drugs against Hepatitis C virus, "direct acting antivirals" or DAAs, have made antiviral therapy possible also for patients with advanced liver disease and for those on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT). This study shows for the first time that the DAAs may lead to a remarkable clinical improvement allowing the delisting of one patient out of 5.

Survival of patients treated with sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Data on survival and safety of sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplant are still equivocal.

AIM

We performed a meta-analysis of published studies, with the aim of estimating the 1-year rates of survival, analysing the variability in survival rates and, finally, identifying the factors associated with a longer survival.

METHODS

Data from 8 of the 17 selected studies were pooled, while the other 9 were excluded because survival rates were missing. All included studies were retrospective.

RESULTS

Overall, the 1-year survival ranged from 18% to 90%. Tumour progression was the main cause of death. The second cause was bleeding, reported only in patients undergoing m-Tor inhibitor therapy. The pooled estimate of 1-year survival was 63%. There was a significant heterogeneity among studies (P < 0.0001). Among the 34 variables assessed by univariate meta-regression, 5 were associated with an increase in the 1-year survival rate: (1) male gender (P = 0.001); (2) Time to progression (P = 0.038); and adverse drug events, divided in (3) gastrointestinal (P = 0.038), (4) cardiovascular (P = 0.029), and (5) dermatological (P = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Additional data from multicentre prospective studies are required to clearly determine if sorafenib is a safe and acceptable treatment in hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplant. Nevertheless, its association with m-Tor inhibitors should be discouraged.

Autoimmunity after liver transplantation: a frequent event but a rare clinical problem

Autoantibodies are frequently detected after liver transplantation (LT), but their role is unclear. This study was designed to address three points: autoantibody prevalence pre-LT and over time up to five yr after LT, identification of possible predictors of autoantibody formation, and correlation between autoantibodies and graft dysfunction. To these aims, we retrospectively evaluated 92 consecutive LT recipients for whom prospectively stored frozen sera were available for autoantibodies assessment by immunofluorescence. The overall autoantibody prevalence resulted significantly higher after LT than before LT (64% vs. 27%, p < 0.001 and 35.9% vs. 8.7%, p < 0.001 considering cutoff titer of ≥ 1:80 and ≥ 1:160, respectively). Recipient gender, donor age and gender, and indication for LT and main immunosuppressant (cyclosporine vs. tacrolimus) were not associated with the presence of autoantibodies. Patients with graft dysfunction had a significantly higher autoantibody prevalence irrespective of the etiology of liver injury as compared to those patients with persistently normal liver biochemistry, but only for cutoff titers ≥ 1:160 (p = 0.004). No cases of de novo autoimmune hepatitis were observed. In conclusion, autoantibodies are very frequently detected after LT also at high titers and their association with graft dysfunction likely represents an aspecific indicator of liver injury.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver Transplantation: State of the Art

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive tumor that often occurs in chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC is growing worldwide. With respect to any other available treatment for liver cancer, liver transplantation (LT) has the highest potential to cure. LT allows for removal at once of both the tumor ("seed") and the damaged-hepatic tissue ("soil") where cancerogenesis and chronic liver disorders have progressed together. The Milan criteria (MC) have been applied worldwide to select patients with HCC for LT, yielding a 4-year survival rate of 75%. These criteria represent the benchmark for patient selection and are the basis for comparison with any other suggested criteria. However, MC are often considered to be too restrictive, and recent data show that between 25% and 50% of patients with HCC are currently transplanted beyond conventional indications. Consequently, any unrestricted expansion of selection criteria will increase the need for donor organs, lengthen waiting periods, increase drop-out rates, and impair outcomes on intention-to-treat analysis. Management of HCC recurrence after LT is challenging. There are a few reports available regarding the safety and efficacy of sorafenib for HCC recurrence after LT, but the data are heterogeneous. A multi-center prospective randomized controlled trial comparing placebo with sorafenib is advised. Alternatively, a meta-analysis of patient survival with sorafenib for HCC recurrence after LT could be helpful to characterize the therapeutic benefit and safety of sorafenib. Here, we review the use of LT for HCC, with particular emphasis on the selection criteria for transplantation in patients with HCC and management of HCC recurrence after LT.