Global trends and predictions in hepatocellular carcinoma mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates have increased over recent decades in most countries. It is also the third cause of cancer death worldwide. The aim of this study is to update global trends in HCC mortality to 2014, and predict trends in rates in the EU, USA and Japan to 2020.

METHODS

Death certification data for HCC over the 1990-2014 period from the World Health Organization database were analyzed. Sixteen European, five American countries, and six other countries worldwide were included, as well as the EU as a whole.

RESULTS

In European men, mortality rates were stable during the last decade (3.5/100,000). HCC mortality increased in Northern and Central Europe, and decreased in Southern Europe. In the USA, HCC mortality increased by 35% between 2002 and 2012, reaching 3.1/100,000 men in 2012; it is predicted to remain stable to 2020. Reduced mortality rates were observed in East Asia, although they remained around 10-24/100,000 men. In Japan, HCC mortality is predicted to decrease (5.4/100,000 men in 2020). Trends were favorable in the young, but unfavorable in middle aged, except in East Asia. Mortality rates were 3- to 5-fold lower in women than men in most regions, but trends were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Control of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has contributed to the decrease in HCC-related mortality in East Asia and Southern Europe. Unfavorable trends in other regions can be attributed to HCV (and HBV) epidemics in the 1960s and 1980s, alcohol consumption, increased overweight/obesity, and diabetes. Better management of cirrhosis, HCC diagnosis and treatment are also influencing the mortality trends worldwide.

LAY SUMMARY

Mortality rates due to HCC have increased in many countries over recent decades. In this study, we updated worldwide mortality trends for HCC from 1990 to 2014, and predicted trends for some countries to 2020. We observed unfavorable trends in Northern and Central Europe, North and Latin America. East Asia showed an improvement, however mortality rates in this region were 2- to 5-fold higher than in most European countries and the Americas. Steady declines to 2020 are predicted for East Asia but not for Europe and the Americas.

Global Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Mortality From 1980 Through 2013 and Predictions for 2017

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality, and its mortality has not decreased in recent years. We sought to determine global trends in pancreatic cancer mortality.

METHODS

We derived data on deaths from pancreatic cancer from the World Health Organization database for 59 countries from 1980 through 2013. Age-standardized mortalities were computed for persons of all ages and for persons 35-64 years old; for selected countries, they were computed for persons 25-49 years old. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality. For selected larger countries, we predicted number of deaths and mortality for 2017.

RESULTS

Between 1980 and 2013, overall pancreatic cancer mortality in men increased in the European Union (EU) as well as in Southern and Eastern Europe, Brazil, Japan, and Republic of Korea. Overall pancreatic cancer mortality decreased in most Northern European countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the United States (US). In women, mortality increased in the EU, Brazil, US, Japan, and Republic of Korea but decreased in Canada and Mexico. In 2012, Eastern Europe and Japan had the highest pancreatic cancer mortality for both sexes. In men 25-49 years old, mortality decreased in the EU, US, Japan, and most large European countries. On the basis of our data, we predict overall pancreatic cancer mortality in 2017 to level off in men in the EU and US but increase in Japan. In women, mortality will continue to increase in most countries except the US; the greatest increase is predicted to occur in Japan.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality from pancreatic cancer has not decreased as it has for other cancers in recent years. A notable exception is a decrease in mortality in men 25-49 years old, which could indicate a reversal in the current increasing global trends.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias

BACKGROUND

Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS

Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively.

CONCLUSION

The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.

Trastuzumab for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer in clinical practice: Cardiotoxicity and overall survival

The evidence on efficacy and safety of trastuzumab in metastatic breast cancers (MBC) mainly derives from randomized clinical trials. We assessed short- and long-term overall survival (OS) and cardiotoxicity in a large cohort of women with MBC treated with trastuzumab in clinical settings. Using healthcare administrative data of Lombardy (10 millions inhabitants), we identified a cohort of women receiving trastuzumab for MBC between 2006 and 2009. The cumulative risk of severe cardiac events and the OS from the first trastuzumab administration were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Their predictors were assessed using Cox regression models. We found 681 trastuzumab MBC users. Thirty two (4.7%) women experienced severe cardiac adverse events. The cumulative risk increased sharply, reaching a value of 2.4% and 4.3% during the first and second year; thereafter it increased of about 1% per year. Age was a strong predictor of cardiotoxicity. The OS was 81.8%, 64.0%, 50.2%, 41.1% and 37.2% at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years, respectively. Independent predictors of worse OS were: age, brain liver or lung metastasis compared to other metastasis, use of taxanes and other chemotherapies, a cardiac adverse event after trastuzumab use, and a higher time between metastasis and BC diagnoses. The incidence of cardiotoxicity among women treated with trastuzumab for HER2-positive MBC appeared higher than that reported in RCTs, particularly in elder patients. In spite of this, median survival, was, if anything, better.

Risk factors for neuroendocrine neoplasms: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are rare cancers mainly of lung and digestive tract. Little is known on risk factors. The aim of this work is to define the risk factors for NEN development by extensive review and meta-analysis of published data.

METHODS

The search was conducted on Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used for study quality. Meta-analyses were conducted by primary site. Odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio, risk ratio, standardized incidence ratio, and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were abstracted. Data were combined and analyses carried out for risk factors considered by at least two studies. Random-effects model was adopted for study variation.

RESULTS

Of 1535 extracted articles, 24 were enrolled. Meta-analyses were possible for pancreas, small intestine, and rectum. Risk for NEN associated with: (i) family history of cancer at all investigated sites (lung, stomach, pancreas, small intestine, appendix, and colon; OR 2.12 [95% CI 1.40-3.22, I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.681] at meta-analysis in pancreas); (ii) body mass index (BMI) or diabetes (stomach, pancreas, and small intestine; OR of 2.76 [95% CI 1.65-4.64, I(2) = 58.5%, P = 0.090] for diabetes at meta-analysis in pancreas); (iii) cigarette smoking (lung, stomach, pancreas, and small intestine; OR of 1.34 [95% CI 1.10-1.63, I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.780] and of 1.59 [95% CI 1.07-2.37, I(2) = 32.9%, P = 0.225] for smokers versus never-smokers at meta-analysis for pancreas and small intestine); (iv) alcohol consumption (pancreas and rectum; OR of 2.44 [95% CI 1.07-5.59, I(2) = 65.8%, P = 0.054] and of 1.53 [95% CI 0.99-2.35, I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.630] for heavy drinkers versus never-drinkers at meta-analysis for pancreas and rectum).

CONCLUSIONS

Family history of cancer is the most relevant risk factor for NEN development at all investigated sites, followed by BMI and diabetes. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption are potential risk factors for selected anatomical sites.