Svangerskapsdatering

SAMMENDRAGSvangerskapsdatering er et komplekst felt med mange aspekter. Minst tre svært forskjellige metoder fordatering er i bruk: siste menstruasjon, ultralyd samt tidspunkt for fertilisering eller overføring av embryoved in vitro-fertilisering. Bare innenfor ultralyddatering finnes en stor mengde forskjellige “formler” fordatering. Jeg gir her en kort oversikt over de forskjellige tilnærmingene til svangerskapsdatering og visernoen av prinsippene bak populasjonsbasert ultralyddatering.ENGLISH ABSTRACTPregnancy dating is a complex and multifaceted field. At least three very different methods for dating arecommonly used: last menstrual period, ultrasound, and date of fertilization or embryo transfer during invitro fertilization. Within ultrasound dating alone there is a wide range of different “formulas” for dating. Ipresent a short overview over the different approaches to pregnancy dating and show some of the principlesbehind population-based ultrasound dating.

A Population-Based Study of Effects of Genetic Loci on Orofacial Clefts

Prior genome-wide association studies for oral clefts have focused on clinic-based samples with unclear generalizability. Prior samples were also small for investigating effects by cleft type and exclusively studied isolated clefts (those occurring without other birth defects). We estimated the effects of 17 top loci on cleft types in both isolated and nonisolated cases in the largest consortium to date of European-descent population-based studies. Our analytic approach focused on a mother-child dyad case-control design, but it also allowed analyzing mother-only or child-only genotypes to maximize power. Our total sample included 1,875 cases with isolated clefts, 459 cases with nonisolated clefts, and 3,749 controls. After correcting for multiple testing, we observed significant associations between fetal single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at IRF6, PAX7, 8q21.3, 8q24, KIAA1598-VAX1, and MAFB and isolated cleft lip only (CLO) and cleft lip and palate (CLP). Significant associations were observed between isolated CLO and fetal SNPs near TPM1 and NOG1 and between CLP and fetal SNPs at ABCA4-ARHGAP29, THADA, FOXE1, and SPRY2. Overall, effects were similar for isolated CLO and CLP, except for ABCA4-ARHGAP29. A protective effect was observed for the fetal NOG1 SNP on cleft palate only, opposite in direction to the effect on CLO. For most fetal SNPs, a dose-response allelic effect was observed. No evidence of parent-of-origin or maternal genome effects was observed. Overall, effect direction and magnitude were similar between isolated and nonisolated clefts, suggesting that several loci are modifiers of cleft risk in both isolated and nonisolated forms. Our results provide reliable estimates of the effects of top loci on risks of oral clefts in a population of European descent.

Variants in the fetal genome near FLT1 are associated with risk of preeclampsia

Preeclampsia, which affects approximately 5% of pregnancies, is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal death. The causes of preeclampsia remain unclear, but there is evidence for inherited susceptibility. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have not identified maternal sequence variants of genome-wide significance that replicate in independent data sets. We report the first GWAS of offspring from preeclamptic pregnancies and discovery of the first genome-wide significant susceptibility locus (rs4769613; P = 5.4 × 10^-11) in 4,380 cases and 310,238 controls. This locus is near the FLT1 gene encoding Fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, providing biological support, as a placental isoform of this protein (sFlt-1) is implicated in the pathology of preeclampsia. The association was strongest in offspring from pregnancies in which preeclampsia developed during late gestation and offspring birth weights exceeded the tenth centile. An additional nearby variant, rs12050029, associated with preeclampsia independently of rs4769613. The newly discovered locus may enhance understanding of the pathophysiology of preeclampsia and its subtypes.

Fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction: a new population-based approach

OBJECTIVE

To develop a complete, population-based system for ultrasound-based fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction for use in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy.

METHODS

Using 31 516 ultrasound examinations from a population-based Norwegian clinical database, we constructed fetal size charts for biparietal diameter, femur length and abdominal circumference from 24 to 42 weeks' gestation. A reference curve of median birth weight for gestational age was estimated using 45 037 birth weights. We determined how individual deviations from the expected ultrasound measures predicted individual percentage deviations from expected birth weight. The predictive quality was assessed by explained variance of birth weight and receiver-operating characteristics curves for prediction of small-for-gestational age. A curve for intrauterine estimated fetal weight was constructed. Charts were smoothed using the gamlss non-linear regression method.

RESULTS

The population-based approach, using bias-free ultrasound gestational age, produces stable estimates of size-for-age and weight-for-age curves in the range 24-42 weeks' gestation. There is a close correspondence between percentage deviations and percentiles of birth weight by gestational age, making it easy to convert between the two. The variance of birth weight that can be 'explained' by ultrasound increases from 8% at 20 weeks up to 67% around term. Intrauterine estimated fetal weight is 0-106 g higher than median birth weight in the preterm period.

CONCLUSIONS

The new population-based birth-weight prediction model provides a simple summary measure, the 'percentage birth-weight deviation', to be used for fetal size monitoring throughout the third trimester. Predictive quality of the model can be measured directly from the population data. The model computes both median observed birth weight and intrauterine estimated fetal weight. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human Birth Weight and Reproductive Immunology: Testing for Interactions between Maternal and Offspring KIR and HLA-C Genes

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Maternal and offspring cell contact at the site of placentation presents a plausible setting for maternal-fetal genotype (MFG) interactions affecting fetal growth. We test hypotheses regarding killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) and HLA-C MFG effects on human birth weight by extending the quantitative MFG (QMFG) test.

METHODS

Until recently, association testing for MFG interactions had limited applications. To improve the ability to test for these interactions, we developed the extended QMFG test, a linear mixed-effect model that can use multi-locus genotype data from families.

RESULTS

We demonstrate the extended QMFG test's statistical properties. We also show that if an offspring-only model is fit when MFG effects exist, associations can be missed or misattributed. Furthermore, imprecisely modeling the effects of both KIR and HLA-C could result in a failure to replicate if these loci's allele frequencies differ among populations. To further illustrate the extended QMFG test's advantages, we apply the extended QMFG test to a UK cohort study and the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa) study.

CONCLUSION

We find a significant KIR-HLA-C interaction effect on birth weight. More generally, the QMFG test can detect genetic associations that may be missed by standard genome-wide association studies for quantitative traits.

Biometrical modelling in genetics: are complex traits too complex?

The field of traditional biometrical genetics uses mixed-effects models to quantify the influence of genetic and environmental factors on a biological trait, based essentially on estimating within-family trait correlations. Such analyses provide a useful preview of what may be discovered with the emerging full-scale genotyping strategies. However, biometrical analyses require unrealistically large sample sizes to obtain a reasonable precision, particularly for dichotomous traits. In addition, it may be very difficult to separate genetic and environmental effects because environmental correlations are poorly understood. We illustrate these and other difficulties using population-based cousins and nuclear family data for birth weight, collected from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway.

Estimation of fetal weight in pregnancies past term

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the study was to investigate the accuracy of estimating fetal weight with ultrasound in pregnancies past term, using the eSnurra algorithm.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In all, 419 women with pregnancy length of 290 days, attending a specialist consultation at Stavanger University Hospital, Norway, were included in a prospective observational study. Fetal weight was estimated using biparietal diameter (BPD) and abdominal circumference (AC). The algorithm implemented in an electronic calculation (eSnurra) was used to compute estimated fetal weight (EFW). Results were compared with birthweight (BW).

RESULTS

The mean interval between the ultrasound examination and birth was 2 days (SD 1.4). The median difference between BW and EFW was -6 g (CI -40 to +25 g) and the median percentage error was -0.1% (95% CI -1.0 to 0.6%). The median absolute difference was 190 g (95% CI 170-207 g). The BW was within 10% of EFW in 83% (95% CI 79-87%) of cases and within 15% of EFW in 94% (95% CI 92-96%) of cases. Limits of agreement (95%) were from -553 g to +556 g. Using 5% false-positive rates, the sensitivity in detecting macrosomic and small for gestational age fetuses was 54% (95% CI 35-72%) and 49% (95% CI 35-63%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The accuracy of fetal weight estimation was good. Clinicians should be aware of limitations related to prediction at the upper and lower end, and the importance of choosing appropriate cut-off levels.

Prediction of gestational age based on genome-wide differentially methylated regions

Background

We explored the association between gestational age and cord blood DNA methylation at birth and whether DNA methylation could be effective in predicting gestational age due to limitations with the presently used methods. We used data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Birth Cohort study (MoBa) with Illumina HumanMethylation450 data measured for 1753 newborns in two batches: MoBa 1, n = 1068; and MoBa 2, n = 685. Gestational age was computed using both ultrasound and the last menstrual period. We evaluated associations between DNA methylation and gestational age and developed a statistical model for predicting gestational age using MoBa 1 for training and MoBa 2 for predictions. The prediction model was additionally used to compare ultrasound and last menstrual period-based gestational age predictions. Furthermore, both CpGs and associated genes detected in the training models were compared to those detected in a published prediction model for chronological age.

Results

There were 5474 CpGs associated with ultrasound gestational age after adjustment for a set of covariates, including estimated cell type proportions, and Bonferroni-correction for multiple testing. Our model predicted ultrasound gestational age more accurately than it predicted last menstrual period gestational age.

Conclusions

DNA methylation at birth appears to be a good predictor of gestational age. Ultrasound gestational age is more strongly associated with methylation than last menstrual period gestational age. The CpGs linked with our gestational age prediction model, and their associated genes, differed substantially from the corresponding CpGs and genes associated with a chronological age prediction model.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13059-016-1063-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ruin theory with stochastic return on investments

We consider a risk process with stochastic interest rate, and show that the probability of eventual ruin and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin can be found by solving certain boundary value problems involving integro-differential equations. These equations are then solved for a number of special cases. We also show that a sequence of such processes converges weakly towards a diffusion process, and analyze the above-mentioned ruin quantities for the limit process in some detail.

Frailty models based on Lévy processes

Generalizing the standard frailty models of survival analysis, we propose to model frailty as a weighted Lévy process. Hence, the frailty of an individual is not a fixed quantity, but develops over time. Formulae for the population hazard and survival functions are derived. The power variance function Lévy process is a prominent example. In many cases, notably for compound Poisson processes, quasi-stationary distributions of survivors may arise. Quasi-stationarity implies limiting population hazard rates that are constant, in spite of the continual increase of the individual hazards. A brief discussion is given of the biological relevance of this finding.

Seed viability and germination success of Acacia tortilis along land-use and aridity gradients in the Eastern Sahara

Our study focuses on the keystone species Acacia tortilis and is the first to investigate the effect of domestic ungulates and aridity on seed viability and germination over an extensive part of the Eastern Sahara. Bruchids infest its seeds and reduce their viability and germination, but ingestion by ruminant herbivores diminishes infestation levels and enhances/promotes seed viability and germination. The degree of these effects seems to be correlated with animal body mass. Significantly reduced numbers of wild ruminant ungulates have increased the potential importance of domestic animals and pastoral nomadism for the functionality of arid North African and Middle Eastern ecosystems. We sampled seeds (16,543) from A. tortilis in eight areas in three regions with different aridity and land use. We tested the effect of geography and sampling context on seed infestation using random effects logistic regressions. We did a randomized and balanced germination experiment including 1193 seeds, treated with different manure. Germination time and rates across geography, sampling context, and infestation status were analyzed using time-to-event analyses, Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional hazards Cox regressions. Bruchid infestation is very high (80%), and the effects of context are significant. Neither partial infestation nor adding manure had a positive effect on germination. There is a strong indication that intact, uningested seeds from acacia populations in the extremely arid Western Desert germinate more slowly and have a higher fraction of hard seeds than in the Eastern Desert and the Red Sea Hills. For ingested seeds in the pastoralist areas we find that intact seeds from goat dung germinate significantly better than those from camel dung. This is contrary to the expected body-mass effect. There is no effect of site or variation in tribal management.

Prediction of small-for-gestational-age status by symphysis-fundus height: a registry-based population cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a chart for risk of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) at birth depending on deviations in symphysis-fundus (SF) height values for gestational age during pregnancy weeks 24-42.

DESIGN

Registry-based population cohort study.

SETTING

Antenatal clinics, Västra Götaland County, Sweden, 2005-2010.

POPULATION

The study included 42 018 women with ultrasound-dated singleton pregnancies who delivered at Sahlgrenska University Hospital. Data (including 282 713 SF height measurements) were extracted from the hospital's computerised obstetric database.

METHODS

Linear and binary regression analyses were used to derive prediction models with deviations in birthweight (BW) and SF height by gestational age as dependent and independent variables, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to evaluate the predictive value of the model in detecting SGA.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Birthweight and small-for-gestational-age.

RESULTS

Symphysis-fundus height accounted for 3% of individual BW variance at 24 weeks, increasing gradually to 20% at 40 weeks. Maternal factors explained an additional 10 percentage points of BW variance. Receiver operating characteristic curves confirmed that SF height was a stronger SGA predictor in late than in early pregnancy. Using an SGA relative risk cut-off limit of ≥2-fold, the overall sensitivity was 50% and the overall specificity 80%. Only the most recent SF measurement was useful in predicting BW deviation; previous measurements added nothing to the predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

The ability of SF measurements to detect SGA status at birth increases with gestational age. Only the most recent SF measurement has predictive value; a static or falling pattern of SF values did not increase SGA likelihood.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

New SF curves predict SGA best in late pregnancy; only the most recent SF measurement has predictive value.

KIR and HLA-C: Immunogenetic regulation of human birth weight

Pregnancies resulting in very small or very large babies are at higher risk of obstetric complications with increased morbidity for both mother and baby. Using data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway we have shown how human birth weight is still subject to stabilizing selection. Particular combinations of maternal/fetal immune genes have been implicated in pregnancies resulting in a low birth weight baby (<5th birth weight centile). More specifically, an inhibitory maternal KIRAA genotype with a paternally derived fetal HLA-C2 ligand. At the other end of the birth weight spectrum the presence of an activating maternal KIR2DS1 gene is associated with increased birth weight in linear or logistic regression analyses of all pregnancies >5th centile (p=0.005, OR=2.65). Thus, inhibitory maternal KIR combined with fetal HLA-C2 is more frequently associated with low birth weight, whereas activating maternal KIR with fetal HLA-C2 ligand is associated with increasing birth weight. Our findings using the MoBa cohort have replicated the association of KIR and HLA-C seen in poor placentation, and confirm the importance of maternal/fetal immune gene interactions in determining the outcome of pregnancy.

Maternal KIR in combination with paternal HLA-C2 regulate human birth weight

Human birth weight is subject to stabilizing selection; babies born too small or too large are less likely to survive. Particular combinations of maternal/fetal immune system genes are associated with pregnancies where the babies are ≤ 5th birth weight centile, specifically an inhibitory maternal KIR AA genotype with a paternally derived fetal HLA-C2 ligand. We have now analyzed maternal KIR and fetal HLA-C combinations at the opposite end of the birth weight spectrum. Mother/baby pairs (n = 1316) were genotyped for maternal KIR as well as fetal and maternal HLA-C. Presence of a maternal-activating KIR2DS1 gene was associated with increased birth weight in linear or logistic regression analyses of all pregnancies >5th centile (p = 0.005, n = 1316). Effect of KIR2DS1 was most significant in pregnancies where its ligand, HLA-C2, was paternally but not maternally inherited by a fetus (p = 0.005, odds ratio = 2.65). Thus, maternal KIR are more frequently inhibitory with small babies but activating with big babies. At both extremes of birth weight, the KIR associations occur when their HLA-C2 ligand is paternally inherited by a fetus. We conclude that the two polymorphic immune gene systems, KIR and HLA-C, contribute to successful reproduction by maintaining birth weight between two extremes with a clear role for paternal HLA.

Case/control studies with follow-up: Constructing the source population to estimate effects of risk factors on development, disease, and survival

If individuals in a case/control study are subsequently observed as a cohort of cases and a cohort of controls, weighted regression analyses can be used to estimate the association between the exposures initially recorded and events occurring during the follow-up of the 2 cohorts. Such analyses can be conceptualized as being undertaken on a reconstructed source population from which cases and controls stem. To simulate this population, the cohort of cases is added to the cohort of controls expanded with the reciprocal of the case disease incidence odds (the sampling weight) to include all individuals in the source population who did not develop the case disease. We use a simulated dataset to illustrate how weighted generalized linear model regression can be used to estimate the association between an exposure captured during the case/control study component and an outcome that occurs during follow-up.

GWAS of 126,559 individuals identifies genetic variants associated with educational attainment

A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment was conducted in a discovery sample of 101,069 individuals and a replication sample of 25,490. Three independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are genome-wide significant (rs9320913, rs11584700, rs4851266), and all three replicate. Estimated effects sizes are small (coefficient of determination R(2) ≈ 0.02%), approximately 1 month of schooling per allele. A linear polygenic score from all measured SNPs accounts for ≈2% of the variance in both educational attainment and cognitive function. Genes in the region of the loci have previously been associated with health, cognitive, and central nervous system phenotypes, and bioinformatics analyses suggest the involvement of the anterior caudate nucleus. These findings provide promising candidate SNPs for follow-up work, and our effect size estimates can anchor power analyses in social-science genetics.

A new population-based reference curve for symphysis-fundus height

OBJECTIVE

To present a new gestational-age-specific percentile curve for symphysis-fundus (SF) height and to determine the effects of maternal and fetal covariates.

DESIGN

A population-based register study.

SETTING

Antenatal clinics in Västra Götaland County, Sweden, between 2005 and 2010.

POPULATION

A total of 42 018 women with ultrasound-dated singleton pregnancies who delivered at Sahlgrenska University Hospital.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Measurement of SF height.

METHODS

A non-linear regression of SF height on day of pregnancy was used to construct a reference chart for the median and other percentiles of SF height.

RESULTS

The new reference curve for SF height showed almost linear growth until term. The median value was considerably larger at each gestational age compared with the curves for SF height used in Norway and Denmark. Compared with the curve currently used in Sweden, higher median values were observed only at gestational ages >34 weeks, accompanied by an upward shift in all percentiles. The only notably influential covariates were maternal pre-pregnancy weight and height.

CONCLUSIONS

The new reference curve for SF height shows a pattern that is different from the Scandinavian reference curves of older origin, reflecting changes in the pregnant population, as well as methodological differences. The new curve can be adjusted for maternal and fetal covariates to suit individual pregnancies.

Risk of fetal death after pandemic influenza virus infection or vaccination

BACKGROUND

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, pregnant women were at risk for severe influenza illness. This concern was complicated by questions about vaccine safety in pregnant women that were raised by anecdotal reports of fetal deaths after vaccination.

METHODS

We explored the safety of influenza vaccination of pregnant women by linking Norwegian national registries and medical consultation data to determine influenza diagnosis, vaccination status, birth outcomes, and background information for pregnant women before, during, and after the pandemic. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios for fetal death, with the gestational day as the time metric and vaccination and pandemic exposure as time-dependent exposure variables.

RESULTS

There were 117,347 eligible pregnancies in Norway from 2009 through 2010. Fetal mortality was 4.9 deaths per 1000 births. During the pandemic, 54% of pregnant women in their second or third trimester were vaccinated. Vaccination during pregnancy substantially reduced the risk of an influenza diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25 to 0.34). Among pregnant women with a clinical diagnosis of influenza, the risk of fetal death was increased (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.07 to 3.41). The risk of fetal death was reduced with vaccination during pregnancy, although this reduction was not significant (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.17).

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic influenza virus infection in pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of fetal death. Vaccination during pregnancy reduced the risk of an influenza diagnosis. Vaccination itself was not associated with increased fetal mortality and may have reduced the risk of influenza-related fetal death during the pandemic. (Funded by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.).

X-linked genes and risk of orofacial clefts: evidence from two population-based studies in Scandinavia

BACKGROUND

Orofacial clefts are common birth defects of complex etiology, with an excess of males among babies with cleft lip and palate, and an excess of females among those with cleft palate only. Although genes on the X chromosome have been implicated in clefting, there has been no association analysis of X-linked markers.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We added new functionalities in the HAPLIN statistical software to enable association analysis of X-linked markers and an exploration of various causal scenarios relevant to orofacial clefts. Genotypes for 48 SNPs in 18 candidate genes on the X chromosome were analyzed in two population-based samples from Scandinavia (562 Norwegian and 235 Danish case-parent triads). For haplotype analysis, we used a sliding-window approach and assessed isolated cleft lip with or without cleft palate (iCL/P) separately from isolated cleft palate only (iCPO). We tested three statistical models in HAPLIN, allowing for: i) the same relative risk in males and females, ii) sex-specific relative risks, and iii) X-inactivation in females. We found weak but consistent associations with the oral-facial-digital syndrome 1 (OFD1) gene (formerly known as CXORF5) in the Danish iCL/P samples across all models, but not in the Norwegian iCL/P samples. In sex-specific analyses, the association with OFD1 was in male cases only. No analyses showed associations with iCPO in either the Norwegian or the Danish sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The association of OFD1 with iCL/P is plausible given the biological relevance of this gene. However, the lack of replication in the Norwegian samples highlights the need to verify these preliminary findings in other large datasets. More generally, the novel analytic methods presented here are widely applicable to investigations of the role of X-linked genes in complex traits.

Risk factors for extended duration of acute diarrhea in young children

OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND

We sought to identify predictors of extended duration of diarrhea in young children, which contributes substantially to the nearly 1 1/2 million annual diarrheal deaths globally.

METHODS

We followed 6-35 month old Nepalese children enrolled in the placebo-arm of a randomized controlled trial with 391 episodes of acute diarrhea from the day they were diagnosed until cessation of the episode. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors for having diarrhea for more than 7 days after diagnosis.

RESULTS

Infants had a 17 (95% CI 3.5, 83)-fold and toddlers (12 to 23 month olds) a 9.9 (95% CI 2.1, 47)-fold higher odds of having such illness duration compared to the older children. Not being breastfed was associated with a 9.3 (95% CI 2.4, 35.7)-fold increase in the odds for this outcome. The odds also increased with increasing stool frequency. Furthermore, having diarrhea in the monsoon season also increased the risk of prolonged illness.

CONCLUSION

We found that high stool frequency, not being breastfed, young age and acquiring diarrhea in the rainy season were risk factors for prolonged diarrhea. In populations such as ours, breastfeeding may be the most important modifiable risk factor for extended duration of diarrhea.

Advantages of the population-based approach to pregnancy dating: results from 23,020 ultrasound examinations

OBJECTIVE

To confirm the results from two previous evaluations of term prediction models, including two sample-based models and one population-based model, in a third population.

METHODS

In a study population of 23,020 second-trimester ultrasound examinations, data were prospectively collected and registered over the period 1988-2009. Three different models for ultrasonically estimated date of delivery were applied to the measurements of fetal biparietal diameter (BPD) and two models were applied to the femur length (FL) measurements; the resulting term estimations were compared with the actual time of delivery. The difference between the actual and the predicted dates of delivery (the median bias) was calculated for each of the models, for three BPD/FL-measurement subgroups and for the study population as a whole.

RESULTS

For the population-based model, the median bias was + 0.4 days for the BPD-based predictions and - 0.4 days for the FL-based predictions, and the biases were stable over the inclusion ranges. The biases of the two traditional models varied with the size of the fetus at examination; median biases were - 0.87 and + 2.2 days, respectively, with extremes - 4.2 and + 4.8 days for the BPD-based predictions, and the median bias was + 1.72 days with range - 0.8 to + 4.5 days for FL-based predictions. The disagreement between the two sample-based models was never less than 2 days for the BPD-based predictions.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the results from previous studies; median biases were negligible with term predictions from the population-based model, while those from the traditional models varied substantially. The biases, which have clinical implications, seem inevitable with the sample-based models, which, even if overall biases were removed, will perform unsatisfactorily.

Assessing the impact of nicotine dependence genes on the risk of facial clefts: An example of the use of national registry and biobank data

BACKGROUND

Maternal smoking during pregnancy has been associated with risk of facial clefts in offspring, but causation has not yet been established. It is possible that the effect of maternal smoking on facial clefts is mediated through genes that are involved in nicotine dependence. Gamma-aminobutyric acid B receptor 2 (GABBR2), dopa decarboxylase (DDC), and cholinergic receptor nicotinic alpha 4 (CHRNA4) are three examples of genes that have previously shown strong associations with nicotine dependence.

METHODS

We used a population-based sample of 377 case-parent trios of cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) and 762 control-parent trios from Norway (1996-2001) to investigate whether variants in GABBR2, DDC and CHRNA4 are associated with maternal first-trimester smoking and with clefting risk. We used HAPLIN (Gjessing et al. 2006), a statistical software tailored for family-based association tests, to perform haplotype-based analyses on 12 SNPs in these genes (rs10985765, rs1435252, rs3780422, rs2779562, and rs3750344 in GABBR2; rs2060762, rs3757472, rs1451371, rs3735273, and rs921451 in DDC; rs4522666 and rs1044393 in CHRNA4).

RESULTS

When analyzed one at a time, there was little evidence of association between any of the 12 SNPs and maternal first-trimester smoking. In haplotype analyses, however, one copy of the maternal G-G-c-G-c haplotype in DDC was linked with smoking prevalence (odds ratio: 1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.0-2.1). This same haplotype also increased the risk of isolated CL/P in offspring by 1.5-fold with one copy and 2.4-fold with two copies (P_trend = 0.06). No statistically significant associations were detected with GABBR2 and CHRNA4.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite strong associations previously reported between nicotine dependence and variants in GABBR2, DDC and CHRNA4, these genes were poor predictors of maternal first-trimester smoking in our data. The direct association of the DDC haplotype with CL/P suggests that this haplotype may either have direct effects on clefts or it may influence clefting risks through other yet unexplored risk behavior(s).

Candidate gene analysis of spontaneous preterm delivery: new insights from re-analysis of a case-control study using case-parent triads and control-mother dyads

Background

Spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) has a multifactorial etiology with evidence of a genetic contribution to its pathogenesis. A number of candidate gene case-control studies have been performed on spontaneous PTD, but the results have been inconsistent, and do not fully assess the role of how two genotypes can impact outcome. To elucidate this latter point we re-analyzed data from a previously published case-control candidate gene study, using a case-parent triad design and a hybrid design combining case-parent triads and control-mother dyads. These methods offer a robust approach to genetic association studies for PTD compared to traditional case-control designs.

Methods

The study participants were obtained from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). A total of 196 case triads and 211 control dyads were selected for the analysis. A case-parent triad design as well as a hybrid design was used to analyze 1,326 SNPs from 159 candidate genes. We compared our results to those from a previous case-control study on the same samples. Haplotypes were analyzed using a sliding window of three SNPs and a pathway analysis was performed to gain biological insight into the pathophysiology of preterm delivery.

Results

The most consistent significant fetal gene across all analyses was COL5A2. The functionally similar COL5A1 was significant when combining fetal and maternal genotypes. PON1 was significant with analytical approaches for single locus association of fetal genes alone, but was possibly confounded by maternal effects. Focal adhesion (hsa04510), Cell Communication (hsa01430) and ECM receptor interaction (hsa04512) were the most constant significant pathways.

Conclusion

This study suggests a fetal association of COL5A2 and a combined fetal-maternal association of COL5A1 with spontaneous PTD. In addition, the pathway analysis implied interactions of genes affecting cell communication and extracellular matrix.