Global Epidemiology of Hip Fractures: Secular Trends in Incidence Rate, Post-Fracture Treatment, and All-Cause Mortality

In this international study, we examined the incidence of hip fractures, postfracture treatment, and all-cause mortality following hip fractures, based on demographics, geography, and calendar year. We used patient-level healthcare data from 19 countries and regions to identify patients aged 50 years and older hospitalized with a hip fracture from 2005 to 2018. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of hip fractures, post-hip fracture treatment (defined as the proportion of patients receiving anti-osteoporosis medication with various mechanisms of action [bisphosphonates, denosumab, raloxifene, strontium ranelate, or teriparatide] following a hip fracture), and the all-cause mortality rates after hip fractures were estimated using a standardized protocol and common data model. The number of hip fractures in 2050 was projected based on trends in the incidence and estimated future population demographics. In total, 4,115,046 hip fractures were identified from 20 databases. The reported age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of hip fractures ranged from 95.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 94.8-95.4) in Brazil to 315.9 (95% CI 314.0-317.7) in Denmark per 100,000 population. Incidence rates decreased over the study period in most countries; however, the estimated total annual number of hip fractures nearly doubled from 2018 to 2050. Within 1 year following a hip fracture, post-hip fracture treatment ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 11.1% to 11.9%) in Germany to 50.3% (95% CI 50.0% to 50.7%) in the United Kingdom, and all-cause mortality rates ranged from 14.4% (95% CI 14.0% to 14.8%) in Singapore to 28.3% (95% CI 28.0% to 28.6%) in the United Kingdom. Males had lower use of anti-osteoporosis medication than females, higher rates of all-cause mortality, and a larger increase in the projected number of hip fractures by 2050. Substantial variations exist in the global epidemiology of hip fractures and postfracture outcomes. Our findings inform possible actions to reduce the projected public health burden of osteoporotic fractures among the aging population. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Long-Term Prognostic Impact of Pulmonary Hypertension After Venous Thromboembolism

Pulmonary embolism is a risk factor for chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH), but the prognostic impact of CTEPH on venous thromboembolism (VTE) mortality remains unclear. We examined the impact of CTEPH and other pulmonary hypertension (PH) subtypes on long-term mortality after VTE. We conducted a nationwide, population-based cohort study of all adult Danish patients alive 2 years after incident VTE without previous PH from 1995 to 2020 (n = 129,040). We used inverse probability of treatment weights in a Cox model to calculate standardized mortality rate ratios (SMRs) of the association between receiving a first-time PH diagnosis ≤2 years after incident VTE and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer). We grouped PH as PH associated with left-sided cardiac disease (group II), PH associated with lung diseases and/or hypoxia (group III), CTEPH (group IV), and unclassified (remaining patients). Total follow-up was 858,954 years. The SMR associated with PH overall was 1.99 (95% confidence interval 1.75 to 2.27) for all-cause, 2.48 (1.90 to 3.23) for cardiovascular, and 0.84 (0.60 to 1.17) for cancer mortality. The SMR for all-cause mortality was 2.62 (1.77 to 3.88) for group II, 3.98 (2.85 to 5.56) for group III, 1.88 (1.11 to 3.20) for group IV, and 1.73 (1.47 to 2.04) for unclassified PH. The cardiovascular mortality rate was increased approximately threefold for groups II and III but was not increased for group IV. Only group III was associated with increased cancer mortality. In conclusion, PH diagnosed ≤2 years after incident VTE was associated with an overall twofold increased long-term mortality driven by cardiovascular causes.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic disadvantage and psychiatric disorders among refugees: a population-based, quasi-experimental study in Denmark

PURPOSE

Refugees are vulnerable to psychiatric disorders because of risk factors linked to migration. Limited evidence exist on the impact of the neighbourhood in which refugee resettle. We examined whether resettling in a socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhood increased refugees' risk of psychiatric disorders.

METHODS

This register-based cohort study included 42,067 adults aged 18 years and older who came to Denmark as refugees during 1986-1998. Resettlement policies in those years assigned refugees in a quasi-random fashion to neighbourhoods across the country. A neighbourhood disadvantage index was constructed using neighbourhood-level data on income, education, unemployment, and welfare receipt. Main outcomes were psychiatric diagnoses and psychiatric medication usage ascertained from nationwide patient and prescription drug registers, with up to 30-year follow-up. Associations of neighbourhood disadvantage with post-migration risk of psychiatric disorders were examined using Cox proportional hazards and linear probability models adjusted for individual, family, and municipality characteristics.

RESULTS

The cumulative risk of psychiatric diagnoses and medication was 13.7% and 46.1%, respectively. Refugees' risk of psychiatric diagnoses and psychiatric medication usage was higher among individuals assigned to high-disadvantage compared with low-disadvantage neighbourhoods in analyses including fixed effects for assigned municipality (psychiatric diagnoses: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% CI 1.04, 1.25; psychiatric medication: HR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.00, 1.11). Consistent results were found using linear probability models. Results for diagnostic categories and subclasses of medications suggested that the associations were driven by neurotic and stress-related disorders and use of anxiolytic medications.

CONCLUSION

Resettlement in highly disadvantaged neighbourhoods was associated with an increase in refugees' risk of psychiatric disorders, suggesting that targeted placement of newly arrived refugees could benefit refugee mental health. The results contribute quasi-experimental evidence to support links between neighbourhood characteristics and health.

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score

AIMS

Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding.

CONCLUSION

The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

Incidence and prognosis of superficial vein thrombosis during pregnancy and the post-partum period: a Danish nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of superficial vein thrombosis (SVT) of the legs and the subsequent risk of venous thromboembolism during pregnancy and the post-partum period is unknown. To better understand the clinical course of SVT during these times, we aimed to estimate the incidence rate of SVT during pregnancy and in the post-partum period, as well as the risk of subsequent venous thromboembolism.

METHODS

In this nationwide cohort study, we collected data on all pregnant women who delivered between Jan 1, 1997, and Dec 31, 2017, in Denmark were extracted from the Danish Medical Birth Register, the Danish National Patient Registry, and the Danish National Prescription Registry. Data on ethnicity were not available. Incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated for each trimester and the antepartum and post-partum period. Among women with a pregnancy-related SVT, risk of subsequent venous thromboembolism within the same pregnancy or post-partum period were calculated and compared with a matched cohort of pregnant women without SVT using Cox proportional hazards analysis.

FINDINGS

During 1 276 046 deliveries, 710 diagnoses of lower extremity SVT occurred from conception up to 12 weeks postpartum (0·6 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 0·5-0·6]). The incidence rates of SVT per 1000 person-years were 0·1 (95% CI 0·1-0·2) during the during the first trimester, 0·2 (0·2-0·3) during the second trimester, and 0·5 (0·5-0·6) during the third trimester. The incidence rate was 1·6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 1·4-1·7) during the post-partum period. Of the 211 women with antepartum SVT included in the analysis, 22 (10·4%) were diagnosed with venous thromboembolism, compared with 25 (0·1%) in women without SVT (hazard ratio 83·3 [95% CI 46·3-149·7]).

INTERPRETATION

The incidence rate of SVT during pregnancy and the post-partum period was low. However, if SVT during pregnancy was diagnosed, the risk of developing venous thromboembolism during the same pregnancy was high. These results might help physicians and patients to make decisions about anticoagulant management of pregnancy-related SVT.

FUNDING

None.

A Review of Major Danish Biobanks: Advantages and Possibilities of Health Research in Denmark

Biobank research may lead to an improved understanding of disease etiology and advance personalized medicine. Denmark (population ~5.9 million) provides a unique setting for population-based health research. The country is a rich source of biobanks and the universal, tax-funded healthcare system delivers routinely collected data to numerous registries and databases. By virtue of the civil registration number (assigned uniquely to all Danish citizens), biological specimens stored in biobanks can be combined with clinical and demographic data from these population-based health registries and databases. In this review, we aim to provide an understanding of advantages and possibilities of biobank research in Denmark. As knowledge about the Danish setting is needed to grasp the full potential, we first introduce the Danish healthcare system, the Civil Registration System, the population-based registries, and the interface with biobanks. We then describe the biobank infrastructures, comprising the Danish National Biobank Initiative, the Bio- and Genome Bank Denmark, and the Danish National Genome Center. Further, we briefly provide an overview of fourteen selected biobanks, including: The Danish Newborn Screening Biobank; The Danish National Birth Cohort; The Danish Twin Registry Biobank; Diet, Cancer and Health; Diet, Cancer and Health - Next generations; Danish Centre for Strategic Research in Type 2 Diabetes; Vejle Diabetes Biobank; The Copenhagen Hospital Biobank; The Copenhagen City Heart Study; The Copenhagen General Population Study; The Danish Cancer Biobank; The Danish Rheumatological Biobank; The Danish Blood Donor Study; and The Danish Pathology Databank. Last, we inform on practical aspects, such as data access, and discuss future implications.

Birth weight, childhood body mass index, and risk of diverticular disease in adulthood

OBJECTIVE

Adult overweight is associated with increased risk of diverticular disease (DD). We investigated associations between birthweight and childhood body mass index (BMI) and DD.

METHODS

Cohort study of 346,586 persons born during 1930-1996 with records in the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Data included birthweight, and height and weight from ages 7 through 13. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to examine associations between birthweight and BMI z-scores and DD registered in the Danish National Patient Registry. Due to non-proportionality, we followed participants from age 18-49 and from age 50.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 5459 (3.2%) women and 4429 (2.5%) men had DD. For low and high BMI in childhood, we observed a higher risk of DD before age 50. Among women with z-scores <0 at age 13, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98-1.39] per one-point lower z-score. For z-scores ≥0 at age 13, the HR was 1.30 (95% CI: 1.11-1.51) per one-point higher z-score. Among men with z-scores <0 at age 13, the HR was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.85-1.22). For z-scores ≥0 at age 13, the HR was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.34-1.78). Z-scores ≥0 were not associated with DD after age 50. Among women only, birthweight was inversely associated with DD before age 50 [HR = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83-0.99) per 500 g higher birthweight].

CONCLUSION

BMI z-scores below and above zero in childhood were associated with higher risk of DD before age 50. In addition, we observed lower risk of DD among women, the higher their birthweight.

The impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms on return-to-work after taxane-based chemotherapy in breast cancer

PURPOSE

Breast cancer treatment is associated with adverse effects, which may delay return-to-work. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may influence the risk and severity of treatment toxicities, which in turn could delay return-to-work. We examined the association of 26 SNPs with return-to-work in premenopausal women with breast cancer.

METHODS

Using Danish registries, we identified premenopausal women diagnosed with non-distant metastatic breast cancer during 2007‒2011, assigned adjuvant combination chemotherapy including cyclophosphamide and docetaxel. We genotyped 26 SNPs in 20 genes (ABCB1, ABCC2, ABCG2, CYP1A1, CYP1B1, CYP3A, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, GSTP1, SLCO1B1, SLCO1B3, ARHGEF10, EPHA4, EPHA5, EPHA6, EPHA8, ERCC1, ERCC2, FGD4 and TRPV1) using TaqMan assays. We computed the cumulative incidence of return-to-work (defined as 4 consecutive weeks of work) up to 10 years after surgery, treating death and retirement as competing events and fitted cause-specific Cox regression models to estimate crude hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of return-to-work. We also examined stable labor market attachment (defined as 12 consecutive weeks of work).

RESULTS

We included 1,964 women. No associations were found for 25 SNPs. The cumulative incidence of return-to-work varied by CYP3A5 rs776746 genotype. From 6 months to 10 years after surgery, return-to-work increased from 25 to 94% in wildtypes (n = 1600), from 17 to 94% in heterozygotes (n = 249), and from 7 to 82% in homozygotes (n = 15). The HR showed delayed return-to-work in CYP3A5 rs776746 homozygotes throughout follow-up (0.48, 95% CI 0.26, 0.86), compared with wildtypes. Estimates were similar for stable labor market attachment.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the SNPs examined in the study did not influence return-to-work or stable labor market attachment after breast cancer in premenopausal women. Our findings did suggest that the outcomes were delayed in homozygote carriers of CYP3A5 rs776746, though the number of homozygotes was low.

Risk of primary haematologic cancers following incident non-metastatic breast cancer: A Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer survivors may have increased risk of subsequent haematologic cancer. We compared their risk of haematologic cancers with the general population during 38 years of follow-up.

METHODS

Using population-based Danish medical registries, we assembled a nationwide cohort of women diagnosed with incident non-metastatic breast cancer during 1980-2017, with follow-up through 2018. We compared breast cancer survivors with the general population by computing standardised incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Among 101,117 breast cancer survivors, we observed 815 incident haematologic cancers (median follow-up: 7.9 years). We observed excess risk of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) (SIR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.33-2.01), particularly in women who received chemotherapy (SIR: 3.33, 95%CI: 2.24-4.75) and premenopausal women (SIR: 3.23, 95%CI: 2.41-4.25). The risk of acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL) was increased (SIR: 2.25, 95%CI: 1.29-3.66), whereas the risk of chronic lymphoid leukaemia (CLL) was decreased (SIR: 0.66, 95%CI: 0.53-0.82). An additional analysis showed elevated risk of CLL 0-6 months after breast cancer diagnosis (SIR: 3.00 95%CI: 1.75-4.80).

CONCLUSION

Compared to the general population, breast cancer survivors had elevated risk of AML, particularly when treated with chemotherapy. The risk of ALL was elevated, whereas the risk of CLL was lower. The higher risk of CLL in the first six months after diagnosis likely reflects surveillance bias-due to intensified diagnostic efforts at breast cancer diagnosis and treatment-prompting earlier detection. This has likely reduced the long-term risk of CLL in breast cancer survivors.

Perceived stress and semen quality

BACKGROUND

Psychological stress is prevalent among reproductive-aged men. Assessment of semen quality for epidemiological studies is challenging as data collection is expensive and cumbersome, and studies evaluating the effect of perceived stress on semen quality are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between perceived stress and semen quality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We analyzed baseline data on 644 men (1,159 semen samples) from two prospective preconception cohort studies during 2015-2021: 592 in Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) and 52 in SnartForaeldre.dk (SF). At study entry, men aged ≥21 years (PRESTO) and ≥18 years (SF) trying to conceive without fertility treatment completed a questionnaire on reproductive and medical history, socio-demographics, lifestyle, and the 10-item version of the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS; interquartile range [IQR] of scores: 0-40). After enrollment (median weeks: 2.1, IQR: 1.3-3.7), men were invited to perform in-home semen testing, twice with 7-10 days between tests, using the Trak Male Fertility Testing System. Semen quality was characterized by semen volume, sperm concentration, and total sperm count. We fit generalized estimating equation linear regression models to estimate the percent difference in mean log-transformed semen parameters by four PSS groups (<10, 10-14, 15-19, ≥20), adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

The median PSS score and IQR was 15 (10-19), and 136 men (21.1%) had a PSS score ≥20. Comparing men with PSS scores ≥20 with <10, the adjusted percent difference was -2.7 (95% CI: -9.8; 5.0) for semen volume, 6.8 (95% CI: -10.9; 28.1) for sperm concentration, and 4.3 (95% CI: -13.8; 26.2) for total sperm count.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that perceived stress is not materially associated with semen volume, sperm concentration, or total sperm count.

Organic food consumption and fecundability in a preconception cohort study of Danish couples trying to conceive

BACKGROUND

Little is known about potential health effects of eating organic food in relation to reproduction.

OBJECTIVE

We examined associations between organic food consumption and fecundability.

METHODS

Data were derived from a preconception cohort study of Danish couples trying to conceive (SnartForaeldre.dk, SF). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire on socio-demographics, anthropometrics and lifestyle and a validated food-frequency questionnaire, which included questions on proportions of organic food consumed within six food groups. Participants were followed up with bimonthly questionnaires for up to 12 months or until pregnancy. Analyses were restricted to 2061 participants attempting pregnancy for ≤6 cycles at enrollment and 1303 with <3 cycles. Fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by proportional probabilities regression models adjusted for potential confounders including age, lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Associations were examined for vegetables, fruits, cereals, dairy products, eggs and meat, separately, and for the overall pattern of organic food consumption (organic sum score).

RESULTS

The final analytic sample comprised 2069 participants. In the full cohort, organic food consumption was not meaningfully associated with fecundability. Among participants <3 cycles of pregnancy attempt at study entry (n = 1303), the FR was 1.11 (95% CI 0.93, 1.33) for the category 'less than half', for 'more than half' the FR was 1.17 (95% CI 0.99, 1.38) and for 'almost everything' the FR was 1.12 (95% CI 0.97, 1.28).

CONCLUSION

Higher consumption of organic foods was not meaningfully associated with fecundability, although slightly greater fecundability was seen among participants with <3 cycles of pregnancy attempt time.

Pre-pregnancy migraine diagnosis, medication use, and spontaneous abortion: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Migraine is common among females of reproductive age (estimated prevalence:17-24%) and may be associated with reproductive health through underlying central nervous system excitability, autoimmune conditions, and autonomic dysfunction. We evaluated the extent to which pre-pregnancy migraine diagnosis and medication use are associated with risk of spontaneous abortion (SAB).

METHODS

We analyzed data from a preconception study of pregnancy planners (2013-2021). Eligible participants self-identified as female, were aged 21-45 years, resided in the USA or Canada, and conceived during follow-up (n = 7890). Participants completed baseline and bimonthly follow-up questionnaires for up to 12 months or until a reported pregnancy, whichever occurred first. Pregnant participants then completed questionnaires during early (~ 8-9 weeks) and late (~ 32 weeks) gestation. We defined migraineurs as participants who reported a migraine diagnosis or use of a medication to treat migraine. Preconception questionnaires elicited migraine medication use during the past 4 weeks, and SAB on follow-up and pregnancy questionnaires. We used Cox regression models with gestational weeks as the time scale to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations among preconception migraine, migraine medication use, and SAB, controlling for potential demographic, medical, and lifestyle confounders.

RESULTS

Nineteen percent of study pregnancies ended in SAB. History of migraine before conception was not appreciably associated with SAB risk (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.91-1.06). Use of any migraine medication was associated with a modest increase in SAB risk overall (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.96-1.36). We observed the greatest increase in risk among those taking migraine medications daily (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.81-2.35) and those taking prescription migraine prophylaxis (HR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.72-2.84) or combination analgesic and caffeine medications (HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 0.99-2.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Migraine medication use patterns suggesting greater underlying migraine severity were associated with increased risk of SAB. This research adds to the limited information available on the reproductive effects of migraine.

Neighborhood disadvantage and the risk of dementia and mortality among refugees to Denmark: A quasi-experimental study

Objectives

Neighborhood disadvantage may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes among older refugees. Yet few studies rigorously estimate the effects of place-based factors on later-life health, particularly dementia and mortality. Evidence about refugees is especially sparse.

Methods

This study leveraged a natural experiment in the form of a Danish policy (1986-1998) that dispersed refugees quasi-randomly across neighborhoods upon arrival. We used longitudinal registers allowing 30 years of follow-up among refugees aged 40+ years upon arrival in Denmark (N = 9,854). Cox models assessed the association between neighborhood disadvantage and risk of dementia and mortality. We examined heterogeneous effects by sex, age, and family size. We also examined associations among non-refugee immigrants and native-born Danes.

Results

Neighborhood disadvantage was not associated with dementia in any group. One unit increase in neighborhood disadvantage index (ranges -8 to 5.7) was associated with greater mortality risk among non-refugee immigrants (HR 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.10) and native-born Danes (HR 1.11, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.17). In contrast, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with lower mortality risk among refugees (HR 0.96, 95%CI: 0.93, 0.99). Neighborhood disadvantage remained negatively associated with mortality risk in subgroups: refugees who are female (on moderate-disadvantage compared to low-disadvantage), aged 60+, and who arrived with families.

Discussion

While neighborhood disadvantage was associated with lower mortality risk among refugees, it was associated with greater mortality risk among non-refugee immigrants and native-born Danes, perhaps due to confounding in the latter groups or different place-based experiences by immigration status. Future research is warranted to explain the reasons for contrasting findings.

14-fold increased prevalence of rare glucokinase gene variant carriers in unselected Danish patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

AIMS

Rare variants in the glucokinase gene (GCK) cause Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY2/GCK-MODY). We investigated the prevalence of GCK variants, phenotypic characteristics, micro- and macrovascular disease at baseline and follow-up, and treatment among individuals with and without pathogenic GCK variants.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study in a population-based cohort of 5,433 individuals without diabetes (Inter99 cohort) and in 2,855 patients with a new clinical diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (DD2 cohort) with sequencing of GCK. Phenotypic characteristics, presence of micro- and macrovascular disease and treatment information were available for patients in the DD2 cohort at baseline and after an average follow-up of 7.4 years.

RESULTS

Twenty-two carriers of potentially deleterious GCK variants were found among patients with type 2 diabetes compared to three among 5,433 nondiabetic individuals [OR = 14.1 (95 % CI 4.2; 47.0), p = 8.9*10^-6]. Patients with type 2 diabetes carrying GCK variants had significantly lower waist circumference, hip circumference and BMI, compared to non-carriers. Three GCK variant carriers with diabetes had microvascular complications during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 0.8% of Danish patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes carry non-synonymous variants in GCK and resemble patients with GCK-MODY. Glucose-lowering treatment cessation should be considered in this subset of diabetes patients.

Healthcare Resource Utilization and Costs for Empagliflozin Versus Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists in Routine Clinical Care in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

The sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) empagliflozin has shown reductions in major adverse cardiac events similar to glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs). However, evidence is limited about how these therapies compare regarding overall healthcare resource utilization and costs in routine clinical care.

METHODS

We conducted a comparative cohort study based on linked prospective healthcare databases for the entire population of Denmark during 2015-2018. We included 13,747 new users of empagliflozin and 13,249 new users of GLP-1RAs. Propensity scores were applied to balance potential confounders across the two treatment groups through inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). We assessed directly referable costs per person-year associated with healthcare resource utilization (inpatient, emergency room, and outpatient clinic hospital care, primary care health services, and prescription medication costs at pharmacies) among drug initiators while on-treatment.

RESULTS

The two IPTW cohorts were well balanced at baseline (median age 61 years, 60% men, diabetes duration 6.7 years, 19% with pre-existing ischemic heart disease, 8% with pre-existing cerebrovascular disease), with similar healthcare costs in the previous year. During follow-up, average on-treatment costs per person-year were very similar among empagliflozin and GLP-1 RA initiators for the following services: inpatient hospitalizations (13,565 DKK versus 13,275 DKK), hospital outpatient clinic visits (12,007 DKK versus 12,152 DKK), emergency room visits (370 DKK versus 399 DKK), and primary care services (4108 DKK versus 4302 DKK). Total costs for any prescription drugs were clearly lower for empagliflozin initiators than for GLP-1 RA initiators (8946 DKK versus 14,029 DKK). In sum, overall healthcare costs on-treatment were lower for empagliflozin initiators (38,995 DKK per person-year) than for GLP-1RA initiators (44,157 DKK per person-year).

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide population-based cohort study, average healthcare costs after drug initiation and while on treatment were lower for empagliflozin initiators than for GLP-1RAs initiators, driven by lower drug costs.

REGISTRATION

The study protocol and analysis plan have been registered on the website of the European Network of Centres for Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance (ENCEPP) ( http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm?id=37726 , first protocol registration 4 June 2019), and on clinicaltrials.gov ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03993132 , first posted 20 June 2019).

Risk factors for suicide one year after discharge from hospitalization for physical illness in Denmark

While suicide risk following psychiatric hospitalization has been studied extensively, risk following hospitalization for physical illness is less well understood. We used random forests to examine risk factors for suicide in the year following physical illness hospitalization in Denmark. In this case-cohort study, suicide cases were all individuals who died by suicide within one year of a hospitalization for a physical illness (n = 4563) and the comparison subcohort was a 5% random sample of individuals living in Denmark on January 1, 1995 who had a hospitalization for a physical illness between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2015 (n = 177,664). We used random forests to examine identify the most important predictors of suicide stratified by sex. For women, the top 10 most important variables for random forest prediction were all related to psychiatric diagnoses. For men, many physical health conditions also appeared important to suicide prediction. Among the top 10 variables in the variable importance plot for men were influenza, injuries to the head, nervous system surgeries, and cerebrovascular diseases. Suicide prediction after a physical illness hospitalization requires comprehensive consideration of different and multiple factors for each sex.

Risk of Psychiatric Disorders Among Refugee Children and Adolescents Living in Disadvantaged Neighborhoods

Importance

Refugee children and adolescents are at increased risk of mental health difficulties, but little is known about how the characteristics of the neighborhood in which they resettle may affect vulnerability and resilience.

Objective

To test whether neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with risk of psychiatric disorders among refugee children and adolescents and examine whether the association differs by sex, age at arrival, and family structure.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This quasi-experimental register-based cohort study included refugees in Denmark aged 0 to 16 years at the time of resettlement from 1986 to 1998. A refugee dispersal policy implemented during those years assigned housing to refugee families in neighborhoods with varying degrees of socioeconomic disadvantage in a quasi-random (ie, arbitrary) manner conditional on refugee characteristics observed by placement officers. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between neighborhood disadvantage and risk of psychiatric disorders, adjusting for relevant baseline covariates.

Exposures

A neighborhood disadvantage index combining information on levels of income, education, unemployment, and welfare assistance in the refugees' initial quasi-randomly assigned neighborhood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

First-time inpatient or outpatient diagnosis of a psychiatric disorder before age 30 years.

Results

Median (IQR) baseline age in the sample of 18 709 refugee children and adolescents was 7.9 (4.7-11.7) years; 8781 participants (46.9%) were female and 9928 (53.1%) were male. During a median (IQR) follow-up period of 16.1 (10.2-20.8) years, 1448 refugees (7.7%) were diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder (incidence rate, 51.2 per 10 000 person-years). An increase of 1 SD in neighborhood disadvantage was associated with an 11% increase in the hazard of a psychiatric disorders (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21). This association did not differ between male and female individuals, refugees who arrived at different ages, or those from single- vs dual-parent households. In secondary analyses using prescribed psychiatric medication as the outcome, a similar association with neighborhood disadvantage was found (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.14).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with an increase in risk of psychiatric disorders. The results suggest that placement of refugee families in advantaged neighborhoods and efforts to enhance the neighborhood context in disadvantaged areas may improve mental health among refugee children and adolescents.

Time trends in use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and opioids one year after total hip arthroplasty due to osteoarthritis during 1996-2018: a population-based cohort study of 103,209 patients

OBJECTIVE

To examine time trends in the use of NSAIDs and opioids for patients with osteoarthritis undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) during 1996-2018.

METHOD

Using Danish population-based medical databases, we identified 103,209 THA patients. Prevalence rates of NSAID and opioid use among preoperative users and non-users were calculated in four quarters (Q1-Q4) after THA by calendar periods (1996-2000, 2001-2006, 2007-2012 and 2013-2018). Prevalence rate ratios (PRR) were adjusted for age and gender.

RESULTS

Among preoperative NSAID users and non-users, NSAID use in Q1 increased from 32.6% in 1996-2000 to 48.0% in 2013-2018 (PRR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.42-1.55) and from 12.9% to 32.0% (PRR = 2.49 (2.32-2.67)), respectively. Among preoperative opioid users and non-users, opioid use in Q1 increased from 42.7% in 1996-2000 to 76.9% in 2013-2018 (PRR = 1.81 (1.73-1.89)) and from 15.2% to 58.2% (PRR = 3.85 (3.65-4.05)), respectively. NSAID use in Q4 decreased from 24.5% in 1996-2000 to 21.4% in 2013-2018 (PRR = 0.88 (0.83-0.93)) and from 6.9% to 5.6% (PRR = 0.81 (0.73-0.91)) in preoperative NSAIDs users and non-users, respectively. Opioid use in Q4 increased from 26.6% in 1996-2000 to 28.6% (PRR = 1.08 (1.02-1.15)) in 2013-2018 and from 4.1% to 5.0% (PRR = 1.25 (1.11-1.40)) in preoperative opioid users and non-users, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We observed up to a 4-fold increase in NSAID and opioid use in Q1 during 1996-2018, while usage in Q4 did not change substantially. However, 5-6% of the preoperative non-users of NSAIDs and opioids were users in Q4, which might relate to inaccurate indication for or timing of THA and the post-surgical phasing out of analgesics use.

Short-term and long-term risk of mortality and neurodevelopmental impairments after bacterial meningitis during infancy in children in Denmark and the Netherlands: a nationwide matched cohort study

Background

Few studies have reported the long-term consequences of bacterial meningitis during infancy, and studies that have been done usually do not include a comparison cohort. We aimed to assess short-term and long-term risk of mortality, neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), and health-care use and household income in cohorts of children with and without a history of bacterial meningitis during infancy in Denmark and the Netherlands.

Methods

In this nationwide cohort study, infants with a history of bacterial meningitis before age 1 year were identified through the Danish Medical Birth Registry and Danish National Patient Registry using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and through the Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis. Infants were matched (1:10) by sex and birth month and year to a comparison cohort of the general population without a history of bacterial meningitis. We analysed mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression. In Denmark, diagnoses of NDIs were based on ICD-10 codes; in the Netherlands, special educational needs were used as a functional NDI outcome. Risk ratios (RRs) of NDIs were estimated using modified Poisson regression. We also analysed long-term health-care use in Denmark and household income in both countries. All regression analyses were adjusted for sex and year of birth, and stratified by pathogen whenever sample size allowed.

Findings

We included 2216 children with a history of bacterial meningitis (570 [25·7%] in Denmark between Jan 1, 1997, and Dec 31, 2018, and 1646 [74·3%] in the Netherlands between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018), matched to 22 127 comparison cohort members. Median age at diagnosis was 2·8 months (IQR 0·4–7·1) in Denmark and 4·3 months (0·7–7·4) in the Netherlands. Mortality risks within 3 months after disease onset were 3·9% (95% CI 2·6–5·8%) in Denmark and 5·9% (4·7–7·0) in the Netherlands, compared with 0·0% (p<0·0001) and 0·1% (p<0·0001) in the comparison cohorts. Survivors had an increased risk of moderate or severe NDIs at age 10 years (RR 5·0 [95% CI 3·5–7·1] in Denmark and 4·9 [4·0–6·2] in the Netherlands) compared to children in the comparison cohort, particularly after pneumococcal and group B streptococcal meningitis. In Denmark, a history of bacterial meningitis was associated with increased health-care use in the 10 years following diagnosis (rate ratio 4·5 [95% CI 3·9–5·2] for outpatient visits and 4·1 [3·6–4·7] for hospital admissions).

Interpretation

Our study shows increased risk of mortality in the short and long term, a five times increase in risk of NDIs, and increased health-care use after bacterial meningitis during infancy. Together with context-specific incidence data, our results can advance pathogen-specific estimation of the meningitis burden and inform service provision at the individual and population level.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Stichting Remmert Adriaan Laan Fonds, and the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development.

Development of a 5-year risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes in individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

Pre-diabetes increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, but data are sparse on predictors in a population-based clinical setting. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for 5-year risks of progressing to type 2 diabetes among individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used data from the Danish National Health Survey (DNHS; n=486 495), linked to healthcare registries and nationwide laboratory data in 2012-2018. We included individuals with a first HbA1c value of 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0%-6.4%), without prior indications of diabetes. To estimate individual 5-year cumulative incidences of type 2 diabetes (HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%)), Fine-Gray survival models were fitted in random 80% development samples and validated in 20% validation samples. Potential predictors were HbA1c, demographics, prescriptions, comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and self-rated lifestyle.

RESULTS

Among 335 297 (68.9%) participants in DNHS with HbA1c measurements, 26 007 had pre-diabetes and were included in the study. Median HbA1c was 43.0 mmol/mol (IQR 42.0-44.0 mmol/mol, 6.1% (IQR 6.0%-6.2%)), median age was 69.6 years (IQR 61.0-77.1 years), and 51.9% were women. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 11.8% progressed to type 2 diabetes and 10.1% died. The final prediction model included HbA1c, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), any antihypertensive drug use, pancreatic disease, cancer, self-reported diet, doctor's advice to lose weight or change dietary habits, having someone to talk to, and self-rated health. In the validation sample, the 5-year area under the curve was 72.7 (95% CI 71.2 to 74.3), and the model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to well-known pre-diabetes predictors such as age, sex, and BMI, we found that measures of self-rated lifestyle, health, and social support are important and modifiable predictors for diabetes. Our model had an acceptable discriminative ability and was well calibrated.

Twenty-Year Temporal Trends in Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Incident Type 2 Diabetes: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We examined temporal trends in risk of first-time ischemic stroke in patients with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and no prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using nationwide health registries, we identified all patients with incident T2DM without a prior hospital diagnosis of ASCVD from 1996 to 2015 in Denmark. Patients were assigned to 5-year periods based on the date of T2DM diagnosis and were followed for 5 years. Each patient was matched by sex and age with up to three individuals from the general population. Temporal trends in ischemic stroke were examined using Cox regression to compute hazard ratios (HRs). Temporal use of prophylactic cardiovascular medications was also assessed.

RESULTS

The study comprised 288,825 patients with incident T2DM and 782,232 general population individuals. From 1996-2000 to 2011-2015, the 5-year risk of first-time ischemic stroke was approximately halved in the T2DM cohort (5.2% vs. 2.7%; sex- and age-adjusted HR 0.52 [95% CI 0.49-0.55]). Patients diagnosed in 2011-2015 had increased risk of ischemic stroke compared with individuals in the general population; however, the risk difference narrowed over time (5.2% vs. 2.9% in 1996-1999 [difference 2.3%]; 2.7% vs. 2.0% in 2011-2015 [difference 0.7%]). Use of prophylactic cardiovascular medications increased markedly during the overall study period, especially use of statins (from 5% to 50%) and multiple antihypertensive drugs (from 18% to 33%).

CONCLUSIONS

From 1996 to 2015, the 5-year risk of first-time ischemic stroke was approximately halved in patients with incident T2DM and no prior ASCVD, coinciding with markedly increased use of prophylactic cardiovascular medications.

Venous Thromboembolism and Risk of Cancer in Users of Low-Dose Aspirin: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study

Background  Aspirin may reduce the risk of cancer, particularly gastrointestinal cancer, and venous thromboembolism (VTE). VTE can be the first symptom of occult cancer, but whether it is also a marker of occult cancer in aspirin users remains unknown. Therefore, we investigated the risk of cancer subsequent to VTE among users of low-dose aspirin.

Methods  We conducted a population-based cohort study using data from Danish health registries for the years 2001 to 2018. We identified all patients with a first-time diagnosis of VTE who also redeemed a prescription for low-dose aspirin (75–150mg) within 90 days prior to the first-time VTE. We categorized aspirin users by the number of prescriptions filled as new users (<5 prescriptions), short-term users (5–19 prescriptions), and long-term users (>19 prescriptions). We computed the absolute cancer risks and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer using national cancer incidence rates.

Results  We followed-up 11,759 users of low-dose aspirin with VTE. Long-term users comprised 50% of aspirin users. The 1-year absolute risk of cancer was 6.0% for new users and 6.7% for short-term and long-term users, with corresponding SIRs of 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.8–4.0), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.7), and 2.8 (95% CI: 2.6–3.2), respectively. After the first year of follow-up, the SIR decreased to 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1–1.4) for new users, 1.1 (95% CI: 1.1–1.3) for short-term users, and 1.1 (95% CI: 1.0–1.2) for long-term users.

Conclusion  VTE may be a harbinger of cancer, even in users of low-dose aspirin, regardless of duration of use.

Group B streptococcus infection during pregnancy and infancy: estimates of regional and global burden

BACKGROUND

Group B streptococcus (GBS) colonisation during pregnancy can lead to invasive GBS disease (iGBS) in infants, including meningitis or sepsis, with a high mortality risk. Other outcomes include stillbirths, maternal infections, and prematurity. There are data gaps, notably regarding neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), especially after iGBS sepsis, which have limited previous global estimates. In this study, we aimed to address this gap using newly available multicountry datasets.

METHODS

We collated and meta-analysed summary data, primarily identified in a series of systematic reviews published in 2017 but also from recent studies on NDI and stillbirths, using Bayesian hierarchical models, and estimated the burden for 183 countries in 2020 regarding: maternal GBS colonisation, iGBS cases and deaths in infants younger than 3 months, children surviving iGBS affected by NDI, and maternal iGBS cases. We analysed the proportion of stillbirths with GBS and applied this to the UN-estimated stillbirth risk per country. Excess preterm births associated with maternal GBS colonisation were calculated using meta-analysis and national preterm birth rates.

FINDINGS

Data from the seven systematic reviews, published in 2017, that informed the previous burden estimation (a total of 515 data points) were combined with new data (17 data points) from large multicountry studies on neurodevelopmental impairment (two studies) and stillbirths (one study). A posterior median of 19·7 million (95% posterior interval 17·9-21·9) pregnant women were estimated to have rectovaginal colonisation with GBS in 2020. 231 800 (114 100-455 000) early-onset and 162 200 (70 200-394 400) late-onset infant iGBS cases were estimated to have occurred. In an analysis assuming a higher case fatality rate in the absence of a skilled birth attendant, 91 900 (44 800-187 800) iGBS infant deaths were estimated; in an analysis without this assumption, 58 300 (26 500-125 800) infant deaths from iGBS were estimated. 37 100 children who recovered from iGBS (14 600-96 200) were predicted to develop moderate or severe NDI. 40 500 (21 500-66 200) maternal iGBS cases and 46 200 (20 300-111 300) GBS stillbirths were predicted in 2020. GBS colonisation was also estimated to be potentially associated with considerable numbers of preterm births.

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of the pregnancy-related GBS burden. The Bayesian approach enabled coherent propagation of uncertainty, which is considerable, notably regarding GBS-associated preterm births. Our findings on both the acute and long-term consequences of iGBS have public health implications for understanding the value of investment in maternal GBS immunisation and other preventive strategies.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk-stratified selection to colonoscopy in FIT colorectal cancer screening: development and temporal validation of a prediction model

BACKGROUND

Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) yield many false positives and challenge colonoscopy capacity in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes. We aimed to develop a risk-based selection of participants to undergo diagnostic colonoscopy.

METHODS

The study was observational and used registry data from the Danish CRC screening programme. We included all participants invited 2014-2016 with a positive FIT (≥ 20 μg fHb/g) who underwent colonoscopy (n = 56,459). We predicted the risk of CRC or advanced neoplasia (AN) from age, gender and FIT value using logistic regression. We evaluated calibration and discrimination and conducted temporal validation. We compared the number of CRCs and adenomas identified by risk cut-offs and by a corresponding FIT cut-off.

RESULTS

AUCs were 74.9% (95% CI: 73.6; 76.3) and 67.4% (95% CI: 66.8%; 68.0%) for the models predicting CRC and AN in the validation dataset. The cut-off of CRC risk calculated from age, gender and FIT value identified 1.03 times (95% CI: 1.02; 1.05) more CRCs and 1.01 times (95% CI: 1.01; 1.01) more medium/high-risk adenomas compared with the corresponding FIT cut-off.

CONCLUSIONS

With existing data, risk-stratified FIT screening using a risk cut-off instead of a FIT cut-off can slightly improve the selection to colonoscopy of those at highest risk of cancer and adenomas.

Characteristics and Survival of Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancers

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs) account for up to 50% of colorectal cancers (CRCs) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We investigated characteristics of IBD patients with PCCRC and their survival.

METHODS

We identified IBD patients (ulcerative colitis [UC] and Crohn's disease) diagnosed with CRC from 1995 to 2015. We defined PCCRC as diagnosed between 6 and 36 months, and detected CRC (dCRC) as diagnosed within 6 months after colonoscopy. We computed prevalence ratios comparing PCCRC vs dCRC and followed up patients from the diagnosis of PCCRC/dCRC until death, emigration, or study end. Mortality was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for sex, age, year of CRC diagnosis, and stage. The main analyses focused on patients with UC.

RESULTS

Among 23,738 UC patients undergoing colonoscopy, we identified 352 patients with CRC, of whom 103 (29%) had PCCRC. Compared with dCRC, PCCRC was associated with a higher prevalence of metastatic cancer (33% vs 20%; prevalence ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.13-2.38), cancers showing mismatch repair deficiency (79% vs 56%; prevalence ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.13-1.72), and proximally located cancers (54% vs 40%; prevalence ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06-1.69). The 1- and 5-year adjusted hazard ratios of death for PCCRC vs dCRC among UC patients were 1.29 (95% CI, 0.77-2.18) and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.86-1.79), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics of UC-related PCCRC suggest tumor biology as an important factor in the progression to cancer. However, the prognosis of PCCRC appears similar to that of dCRC.