Simplified risk-prediction for benchmarking and quality improvement in emergency general surgery. Prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Emergency General Surgery (EGS) conditions account for millions of deaths worldwide, yet it is practiced without benchmarking-based quality improvement programs. The aim of this observational, prospective, multicenter, nationwide study was to determine the best benchmark cutoff points in EGS, as a reference to guide improvement measures.

METHODS

Over a 6-month period, 38 centers (5% of all public hospitals) attending EGS patients on a 24-h, 7-days a week basis, enrolled consecutive patients requiring an emergent/urgent surgical procedure. Patients were stratified into cohorts of low (i.e., expected morbidity risk <33%), middle and high risk using the novel m-LUCENTUM calculator.

RESULTS

A total of 7258 patients were included; age (mean ± SD) was 51.1 ± 21.5 years, 43.2% were female. Benchmark cutoffs in the low-risk cohort (5639 patients, 77.7% of total) were: use of laparoscopy ≥40.9%, length of hospital stays ≤3 days, any complication within 30 days ≤ 17.7%, and 30-day mortality ≤1.1%. The variables with the greatest impact were septicemia on length of hospital stay (21 days; adjusted beta coefficient 16.8; 95% CI: 15.3 to 18.3; P < .001), and respiratory failure on mortality (risk-adjusted population attributable fraction 44.6%, 95% CI 29.6 to 59.6, P < .001). Use of laparoscopy (odds ratio 0.764, 95% CI 0.678 to 0.861; P < .001), and intraoperative blood loss (101-500 mL: odds ratio 2.699, 95% CI 2.152 to 3.380; P < .001; and 500-1000 mL: odds ratio 2.875, 95% CI 1.403 to 5.858; P = .013) were associated with increased morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers, for the first time, clinically-based benchmark values in EGS and identifies measures for improvement.

Integrating ecosystem services into sustainable landscape management: A collaborative approach

The Paiva River is considered one of the least polluted rivers in Europe and its watershed has a high conservation value. However, the Paiva River basin suffers pressures related with recurrent disturbances in land use, such as forest fires, agricultural activities, urbanization and pressures that affect the natural hydromorphological conditions and the continuity of watercourses. Blue and Green Infrastructures (BGINs) emerge to improve biodiversity, sustainability and the supply of ecosystem services while improving socioeconomic aspects. Thus, this article aims to identify priority areas in the basin, for intervention with these infrastructures. For that, a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MDCA) was carried out according to several data related to the Paiva River Basin. As local politicians and responsible entities for the natural resources management are the main experts on the problems and their possible solutions at the local level, they were involved in this decision-making model. Therefore, these specialized stakeholders did the weighting assignment according to the most or least importance of the same for the work. The map of priority locations to implement BGINs was obtained in the sequel. To the top 5 priority areas, stakeholders attributed the best solutions based on nature. The most recommended BGINs were recovery/maintenance of riparian vegetation and conservation and reforestation of the native forest, both presented in four of the five areas, and introduction of fuel management strips presented in three of the five areas. Thus, we concluded that it is extremely important to include the communities and the competent entities of nature and environment management in scientific projects related to conservation, forming a synergy that makes it possible to combine scientific knowledge with local experience acquired in the field. This project uses a very flexible methodology of local data and can be a great example to be implemented in other hydrographic basins anywhere in the world.

COVID-19 vaccination: what are the costs we should include?

As for previous communicable diseases, the vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 can be a truly “game-changing” factor to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. A lot has been discussed about what is the less expensive vaccine and how health expenditures might be overrun with pandemic containment measures. There are interesting questions on cost estimation of this technology that should be discussed. The focus has been mainly on vaccine costs rather than on immunization delivery costs, which might also represent an important constraint. This includes human resources, equipment or maintenance which cannot be ignored. Such programs are highly dependent on labor supply, as well as on opportunity costs of reallocating an important share of health care workers for COVID-19 vaccination. On the other hand, costs regarding prevented health care use on COVID-19, from testing to intensive care unit, cannot be neglected, with associated opportunity costs as well. However, prevention of potentially needed measures such as lockdowns with effects in all spheres of society, such as economy and education, are of utmost relevance and are not commonly accounted for in health technology assessments. Furthermore, vaccines have important effects that are not commonly present in prescription drugs such as herd effect, protection against comorbidities or others to be explored in such a recent disease. Only a few efforts for COVID-19 vaccines' economic evaluations exist. However, at the same time, vaccines (and the rollout of vaccination programs) continue to be developed and improved. Therefore, such assessments will be important for studying boosters or revaccinations later on, but also for future pandemic preparedness. Moreover, such efforts on estimating vaccination cost-effectiveness, considering a wide range of costs, might be essential for sub-population prioritization.

Building a roadmap for the evaluation of a National Health Plan: the experience of Portugal

Issue

The National Health Plan (PNS) 2012-2016 (extended until 2020) is the Portuguese strategic health document that presents the direction of intervention within the Health System. A final evaluation of PNS was foreseen, with National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge (INSA) being responsible for carrying out this task. The experience gained by INSA in defining a roadmap to be used in this process can be important in steering other actors to policy evaluation.

Description of the problem

In order to analyze the impact of policies, it is necessary to collect evidence that can evaluate the results achieved, and more importantly, identify gaps in implementation and evaluation issues. Herein, we aim to present the methodological approach developed to pave the way to the final assessment of PNS.

Results

As part of the Biennial Collaborative Agreement 2016-2017, WHO sponsored a high-level technical consultative process with relevant experts to address the condition for defining the work plan. It was devised to undertake: i) A scoping review based upon data collected from PNS implementation evidence mapping; ii) A qualitative analysis of the perception from main stakeholders on PNS impact and their expectations. Thus, a matrix of evidence was built to analyze the alignment of PNS at national and local levels, and with the main health framework targets and indicators. Also, online surveys and face-to-face interviews were done with key stakeholders in order to identify evidence gaps and critical factors for the successful PNS implementation, among others.

Lessons

To characterize its implementation and impact on citizens' health, a sound PNS evaluation should be guided by clear assessment questions, supported by validated tools and complemented by international guidance. In addition, a long-term consultative process with key stakeholder support is required to properly identify opportunities, priorities, and outcomes.

Key messages

Institutionalization of an evaluation process as part of public policies life cycle is a powerfull tool to foster learning and crucial to achievement of proposed goals. A clear structure to support the policy evaluation approach is mandatory to guarantee impartiality, independence and transparency on the overall process.

Health impact assessment of a voluntary protocol to decrease salt in bread: what can we learn?

Issue

Hypertension (HT) is a major and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), which can be caused by excessive salt intake. Portugal has one of the highest mortality rate due to CVD in Europe, mainly due to HT. Thus, reduction of salt intake from food products is one of major strategies advocated to modify blood pressure (BP) and its impact on HT.

Description of the problem

The Portuguese population has excessive daily salt intake mainly due to bread consumption. Thus, in 2017 a voluntary ‘Protocol' was signed between stakeholders with the goal to reduce salt content in bread by 2021. Herein, using a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) approach we aimed to estimate the potential effect in BP from the implementation of this ‘Protocol'. Thus, two national surveys were used to find average values of salt intake and BP on population, while estimates of BP reduction were calculated based upon meta-analysis data.

Results

It was expected that the implementation of the ‘Protocol' could reduce salt ingestion and have a higher BP effect, mostly in more vulnerable populations. In fact, results showed that individuals with low educational level, men, aged and residents in the South region of Portugal were the ones that could more benefit from the ‘Protocol' implementation. However, this study found that the effects were be very low for all groups analysed, suggesting that only slight health gains can occur.

Lessons

The ‘Protocol' as a voluntary agreement is not sufficient to attain the public health targets devised. Following the HIA framework, further complementary and intersectoral integrated measures, through the use of compulsory food and fiscal policies preferably extended to other highly consumed food products, were thus recommended. HIA could be used as a comprehensive tool to assess health impacts, supporting at each national context the design and implementation of effective strategies to promote salt intake reduction and effectively prevent hypertension.

Key messages

The systematic use of HIA to design the appropriate policy framework and to inform adequately political decision-making is crucial to promote health and prevent Non-Communicable Diseases. Voluntary agreements should be complemented by other integrated measures to improve the efficacy of policies aiming to reduce salt intake and prevent hypertension.

BAUN score, a better predictive model of in-hospital and long-term outcomes in acute heart failure?

Introduction

Patients hospitalized due to acute heart failure (AHF) compose a heterogeneous population whose prognosis is difficult to forecast. Previously, BAUN score has proven to be able to accurately predict in-hospital mortality (IHM) in AHF. We aimed to evaluate BAUN score performance in the prediction of long-term outcomes in this population, comparing it to the recently validated Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) score.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 1052 patients admitted to a Cardiology ward due to AHF was performed. 268 patients were excluded due to data omission or therapy with sacubitril/valsartan. Using the variables systolic blood pressure, urea, brain natriuretic peptide and sodium at admission, BAUN score was calculated, ranging from 0–28 points. GWTG score was also calculated at the index event. ROC curve analysis was used to compare the predictive value of the two scores for IHM. Kaplan-Meyer and Cox-regression analysis were performed to evaluate BAUN score prediction ability for 24-month mortality (24-MM) and for the composite endpoint of 24-month rehospitalization or death (24-MH).

Results

Mean patient age was 77 (±10) years; 51% were men. Mean left ventricle ejection fraction (EF) was 49% (±16.4). An EF&lt;40% was present in 31% of patients. IHM, 24-MM and 24-HM were 6.5%, 17.1% and 57.8%, respectively. Mean BAUN score was 7 (±5.64). Mean GWTG score was 49.7 (±9.8). ROC curve analysis for IHM prediction revealed a better performance of the BAUN score (AUC: 0.738p, &lt;0.001) in comparison with GWTG score (AUC: 0.687, p&lt;0.001). Patients were stratified into subgroups according to BAUN risk score – very-high risk (≥22), high risk (16–21), intermediate risk (5–15) and low risk (&lt;5). Kaplan-Meyer analysis revealed a significant difference in 24-MM according to risk subgroup (very high: 35%, high: 26.7%, intermediate: 19.5%, low risk: 12.7%, χ2=16.304, p=0.001). When stratified by non-reduced or reduced EF (≥40% or &lt;40%), there was still a significant mortality difference in subgroups with reduced (p=0.007) and borderline significant in patients with nonreduced EF (p=0.05). Kaplan-Meyer analysis also revealed a significant difference between subgroup risk for 24-MH (51%; 63.8%; 63.3% and 75%, respectively, for low, intermediate, high and very-high risk, χ2=21.237, p&lt;0.001). Cox regression analysis demonstrated that BAUN score independently predicts 24-MM (HR: 1.056, p=0.043) and 24-MH (HR: 1.033, p=0.048), even after adjustment for other prognostic markers, such as atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, previous myocardial infarction, age, EF and GWTG score.

Conclusion

BAUN outperforms GWTG score for IHM prediction in AHF. It also independently predicts 24-MM and 24-MH. Its use may identify patients with high risk of mortality/readmission, in need of specialized care, and those patients with low risk of death, who might be candidates for lenient surveillance.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

STEMI around-the-clock: how off-hours admissions impact door-to-balloon time and the long-term prognosis of ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Introduction

The outcomes of reperfusion in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) are time-dependent, and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) should be performed within 60 minutes from hospital admission in PCI centers – door-to-balloon time (D2B). The association between Off-Hours Admission (OHA) and long-term outcomes is controversial when considering contemporary organized STEMI networks.

Purpose

This study aims to analyze how OHA influences D2B and long-term mortality.

Methods

Retrospective study of consecutive STEMI patients (pts), admitted in a PCI-centre with a local Emergency Department, between 2010 and 2015. Pts submitted to rescue-PCI were excluded. OHA was defined as admission at night (8p.m. to 8a.m), weekends and nonworking holidays. Predictors of OHA and D2B were studied by logistic regression analysis. Demographic, clinical, angiographic and procedural variables were evaluated using stepwise Cox regression analysis to determine independent predictors of 5-year all-cause mortality (5yM). The cumulative incidence of 5yM stratified by hours of admission was calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results

Of 901 pts, 472pts (52.4%) were admitted during off-hours. These pts were younger (61±13 vs 64±12, p=0.002) and had a lower median patient-delay time (128min vs 157min, p=0.014). Clinical severity at presentation, defined by systolic arterial pressure and Killip-Kimball (KK) class, did not differ between groups. OHA did not impact D2B (89 min vs 88 min, p=0.550), which was in turn influenced by age ≥75y (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.31–2.61, p&lt;0.001). Mean clinical follow-up (FUP) was 68±37 months, with 75.1% of pts achieving a FUP &gt;5 years. 5yM rate was 9.7%. After multivariate cox regression analysis, independent determinants of long-term mortality were age (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02–1.08, p&lt;0.001), previous history of heart failure (HR 6.76, 95% CI 1.32–34.72, p=0.022) and pulmonary disease (HR 3.79, 95% CI 1.16–12.33, p=0.027), presentation with KK ≥2 (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.32–6.01, p=0.007) and radial artery access in catheterization (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.18–0.83, p=0.014) – figure 1. Although there was an association between a higher D2B time and 5yM (87min vs 101min, p=0.024), neither OHA nor D2B were independent predictors of long-term mortality – figure 2.

Conclusion

OHA did not seem to influence D2B and long-term STEMI outcomes in our PCI-centre. 5yM was mostly influenced by patient characteristics and clinical severity at presentation.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1. Predictors of long-term mortalityFigure 2. 5-year survival stratified by OHA

Comparison of the GRACE score, TIMI score and a New Laboratorial Score to predict adverse outcomes in acute coronary syndrome

Introduction

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a clinical entity which includes a heterogeneous group of patients with different outcomes. Risk scores are in this setting a resourceful tool to identify the subset of patients with a worse prognosis, in order to plan therapeutic and surveillance strategies.

Aim

To create a risk score – Laboratory Risk Score (LRS) – which exclusively includes analytical and echocardiographic parameters, as a predictor of adverse outcomes (in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality), and compare it with other well-known scores: GRACE Score (GS) and TIMI-score (TS).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, which included patients admitted in the Cardiology Department with the diagnosis of ACS. In order to calculate the new LRS, the authors attributed the value of 1 to each of the satisfied condition from the following: leucocytes &gt;11,7g/L, hemoglobin &lt;13.3g/dL, red cell distribution width &gt;14%, prothrombinemia &lt;90%, glycaemia at admission &gt;143mg/dL, urea &gt;53.5mg/dL, creatinine &gt;1.16mg/dL, reactive C-protein &gt;1.0mg/dL, maximum troponin &gt;35.0ng/dL, natriuretic brain peptide &gt;416 pg/dL and left ventricular ejection fraction &lt;40%. LRS resulted from the sum of the satisfied conditions.

ROC curves for LRS, GS and TS to predict in-hospital mortality and to predict 1-year mortality were constructed. The statistical analysis was performed in SPSS and Medcalc. p value &lt;0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

1714 patients (70.4% male, average age 69±13 years-old) were included in this study. Intra-hospital mortality rate was 6.8% and 1-year mortality rate after de discharge was 4.8%.

The areas under the ROC curves for predicting in-hospital mortality were the following: 0,790 (LRS, p&lt;0,001), 0,793 (GS, p&lt;0.01), 0.817 (TS, p&lt;0.001). For predicting 1-year mortality, the areas under the ROC curves were: 0,715 (LRS, p&lt;0,001), 0,761 (GS, p&lt;0,001), 0.742 (TS, p&lt;0.001). Pairwise comparison of ROC curves showed no significant differences between the scores.

Conclusion

The above-mentioned risk scores, including the new LRS, are obtained with non-invasive and widely available parameters and displayed a good performance in predicting in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Pairwise comparison of ROC curves demonstrated that the new laboratorial score was not inferior predicting adverse outcomes. The SRL is an easily obtained score, that shows a statistical significance in predicting mortality, especially the prediction of in-hospital mortality.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Global longitudinal strain as a predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease and heart failure with preserved/mid-range ejection fraction

Introduction

Global longitudinal strain (GLS) is considered a more sensitive marker of systolic dysfunction than other measures commonly used in clinical practice, such as left ventricle ejection fraction (EF). Our objective was to evaluate the impact of reduced GLS in death and cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized due to heart failure with mid-range or preserved ejection fraction, with previous history of acute myocardial infarction.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 170 patients admitted to a Cardiology ward due to acute heart failure (AHF) was performed. Patients with reduced EF (Simpson biplane method - EF&lt;40%) were excluded based on echocardiographic evaluation after AHF stabilization. GLS measured by “speckle tracking” technique was calculated for each patient. Measurements were made by the same operator to minimize interoperator variability. Mann-Whitney U test was used for univariate analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival plots and Cox-regression analysis were performed to assess differences in 12-month mortality (12MM) and in the composite endpoint of cardiovascular event or death (12CVM) at 12 months.

Results

A total of 127 patients were included. Mean patient age was 64 (±14) years; 72% were men. 48% of patients had history of ST elevation AMI. Mean EF was 54% (±8) and mean GLS was −14.3 (±3.8). Rates of 12MM and 12CV M were 14.2% and 19.3%, respectively. A statistically significant association between 12MM and 12MCV was found in univariate analysis for GLS (p&lt;0.001). Kaplan-Meyer survival plots revealed that a compromised GLS (&lt;−16) was associated with significantly increased 12MM (23% vs 2.5%, X2: 7.999, p=0.005) and 12CVM (26.6% vs 10%, X2: 4.139, p=0.042). When stratified by mid-range vs preserved EF, GLS &lt;−16 was associated with worse outcomes, although the results did not reach statistical significance (p&gt;0.05). However, when considering a severely compromised GLS (&lt;−13), GLS was significantly associated with increased 12MM (52% vs 8.3%, X2: 5.533, p=0.019) and 12CVM (50% vs 8.3%, X2: 4.970, p=0.026), in the subgroup of patients with heart failure with mid-range EF. Cox-regression analysis demonstrated that GLS was independently associated with 12MM (HR: 0.668p, &lt;0.001) and the 12CVM composite endpoint (HR: 0.819, p=0.008), even after adjustment for other important prognostic markers such as chronic kidney disease, pulmonary disease and diabetes, with significant hazard ratio reduction for each positive point increase in GLS.

Conclusion

GLS is an independent predictor of 12MM and 12CVM in patients hospitalized due to AHF, with an EF ≥40% and previous history of acute myocardial infarction. In the subgroup of patients with heart failure with mid-range EF, a severely compromised GLS (&lt;−13) is a strong predictor of 12MM and 12CVM.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

AHFM score, a predictive model of in-hospital and long-term mortality in heart failure

Introduction

Patients hospitalized due to heart failure (HF) constitute a heterogeneous population whose prognosis is difficult to forecast. The purpose of this study was to create a model based on simple bedside recordable echocardiographic, analytical and objective clinical parameters that could accurately predict mortality and/or rehospitalization risk in different stages of HF course.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 347 patients admitted to a Cardiology ward due to decompensated HF was performed. The echocardiographic variables pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PSAP) and E/e' ratio, and the analytical/clinical variables systolic blood pressure (SBP), urea and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) were selected for inclusion. Subgroups were created for each variable and an odds ratio (OR) for the risk of in-hospital mortality (IHM) was calculated. A numerical value proportional to the OR was attributed to each subgroup. A score was created, ranging from 0–47 points, corresponding to the sum of the classification attributed to each variable. ROC curve analysis was used to assess predictive value of the score for IHM. Kaplan-Meyer and Cox-regression plots were used to assess mortality (24MM) and the composite endpoint of HF rehospitalization or death at 24 months (24HM).

Results

Mean patient age was 78 (±9) years; 51% were men. Score variable means were - PSAP: 47 (±15) mmHg; E/e': 16.8 (±7.8); SPB: 138 (±31) mmHg; Urea: 71 (±35) mg/dl; BNP: 911 (±995) pg/ml. Mean ejection fraction (EF) was 48% (±16). 35% of patients had EF&lt;40%. IHM, 24MM and 24HM were 3.5%, 17.1% and 63.6%, respectively. A statistically significant association between IHM and PSAP, E/e', BNP, urea and SBP (p&lt;0.05) was found on univariate analysis. ROC curve analysis of AHFM revealed an AUC of 0.785 (p=0.001) for IHM risk prediction. The cut-off point with most sensitivity (S) and specificity (E) obtained using the Youden index (0.4246) was 18 (S≈75%; E≈67%), associated with significant difference in IHM (1.3% vs 7.6%). IHM by score interval was 1.3%, 3.1% and 25%, respectively, for the intervals 0–18, 19–29 and ≥30. ECHO-AHF score &lt;13 predicted in-hospital survival in all patients. Kaplan Meyer survival analysis by subgroup revealed significant differences in 24MM according to AHFM risk category (13.8% vs 21.9% vs 30.8%, respectively, χ 2= 17.217 p&lt;0.001), but not for 24 MH. Cox-regression analysis demonstrated that AHFM score remained a significant independent predictor of 24MM (HR: 1.067, p=0.05), even after adjustment for other variables, such as coronary disease, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, EF and diabetes.

Conclusion

AHFM score is an accurate model for predicting IHM and long-term risk of HF death. Its use may help to identify patients with high risk of mortality, in need of specialized care, and those with lower risk of death, who might be candidates for early discharge or lenient follow-up.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Left ventricular noncompaction and EcoScore: prognostic value of a new echographic risk score

Introduction

Left Ventricular Non-Compaction (LVNC) is a rare and underdiagnosed cardiomyopathy, characterized by hypertrabeculation of the left ventricle. This disease is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality; however, its main adverse prognostic factors are not well established.

Aim

To create a risk score for LVNC based on echocardiographic criteria (EcoScore) to predict the occurrence of adverse events.

Methods

The authors included patients with the diagnosis of LVNC, according to the Jenni Criteria. Clinical and echocardiographic data were evaluated and the occurrence of the following adverse events was reported: hospitalizations due to supraventricular or ventricular tachyarrythmias and heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, heart transplant and death. The follow-up time was 24 months. ROC curves to predict the occurrence of at least one adverse event were constructed for each echocardiographic parameter. The optimal cut-off obtained from each ROC curve was then used to attribute points (1 point per parameter). The EcoScore resulted from the sum of the obtained points. The authors finally created a ROC curve to predict the occurrence of any adverse event for the EcoScore. The statistical analysis was performed in SPSS. p value &lt;0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

33 patients (48.5% male, age at diagnosis 45.9±21 years) were included in this study. The optimal cut-offs for each parameter obtained from the ROC curves were the following: left ventricle dyastolic diameter &gt;55mm, left atrial diameter &gt;40mm, pulmonary artery systolic pressure &gt;22mmHg and left ventricle ejection fraction &lt;40%. The area under the curve for the EcoScore to predict any adverse event was 0.850 (p=0.017) and an EcoScore &gt;1 had a sensibility of 85.7% and a specificity of 70%.

Conclusion

The EcoScore accurately predicted the occurrence of at least one adverse event in this population. Thus, it could be a good tool in the daily practice to select patients who may benefit from a more aggressive surveillance and treatment.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

NISAR-F SCORE: a simple risk stratification tool for patients implanted with cardiac resynchronization therapy

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Individualized estimation of prognosis after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) remains challenging. Outcomes in this group of patients are influenced by multiple factors and a comprehensive and customized approach to estimate prognosis after CRT is lacking

Aims

To develop and validate a simple prognostic score for patients implanted with CRT (NISAR-F score), based on readily available clinical and echocardiographic variables to predict the combined endpoints of death or hospitalization in 24 months.

Methods

A single-centre retrospective study was conducted with inclusion of all consecutive patients who underwent CRT implantation between 2012 and 2019. Follow-up started after CRT implantation and ended upon death, hospitalization or 24 months after study entry. Survival analysis was performed using a multivariate Cox regression model, in order to analyze the effect on survival /hospitalization in 24 months of the following factors: age, gender, NYHA Class III-IV, ischemic heart failure, type 2 diabetes, arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia and ejection fraction &lt; 21%. According to the analysis, points were attributed to each factor. Afterwards, the NISAR-F score was calculated for each patient, summing the points of each variable. The authors finally created ROC curves for the NISAR-F score to predict the occurrence of the combined endpoint in 2 groups of patients: CRT responders (ejection fraction increase of at least 10% after CRT implantation) and CRT non-responders. The statistical analysis was performed in SPSS.

Results

102 patients were included in the study (75.4% male, mean age 68 ± 10.46 years). 10(9.8%) of the patients were re-hospitalized and 8 (7.8%) died during the 24-month follow-up.  After calculating NISAR-F score for each patient, area under ROC curves were obtained. The analysis of the ROC curves allows us to confirm the good performance of the score created [responders group (AUC 0.812) vs non-responders (AUC 0.721)].

Conclusion The NISAR-F score is a useful tool to predict the combined endpoint (mortality and hospitalization in 24 months) after CRT implantation, in both responders and non-responders, revealing good performance of this new and simple score based only on clinical and echocardiographic variables.

The impact of lipid profile in acute coronary syndrome: young patient vs old patient

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Several studies have suggested a relationship between dyslipidemia and atherogenesis, which displays a main role in the pathophysiology of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS).

Aim

To compare the lipid profile between younger (&lt;55 years) and older (≥55 years) patients admitted due to ACS.

Methods

A single-centre retrospective study was conducted, with inclusion of all consecutive patients admitted in the Cardiology Department due to ACS. Several analytical parameters were evaluated, including total cholesterol (CT), HDL cholesterol (HDL), LDL cholesterol (LDL) and triglycerides (TG) and CT/HDL, LDL/HDL and TG/HDL ratios were calculated. All parameters are presented in mg/dL. Afterwards, comparison of these data between younger (age &lt; 55 years, Group-A) and older (age≥55 years, Group-B) patients was done. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS and a p value &lt; 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

1168 patients (70.1% male, mean age 69 ±12 years) were included in this study. 15.8% of patients were from Group-A. Mean levels of the analysed parameters were the following: CT 176 ± 55, LDL 111 ± 45, HDL 40 ± 12 and TG 137 ± 102. The following mean ratios were obtained: CT/HDL 4.6 ± 1.9, LDL/HDL 2.9 ± 1.4 and TG/HDL 3.8 ± 3.5. Comparison of the analysed parameters and calculated ratios is exhibited in table 1.

Conclusion

Overall, a worse lipid profile was observed in younger patients. This data reveals the role of dyslipidemia in coronary heart disease, which displays a main role in atherosclerosis at a younger age. This fact highlights the importance of adopting a healthy lifestyle and the adherence to primary and secondary prevention measures of cardiovascular events.

Lipid profile: young vs old patient Group A Group B Total Cholesterol 199 ± 44 170 ± 56 p &lt; 0.001 LDL Cholesterol 128 ± 37 107 ± 46 p &lt; 0.001 HDL Cholesterol 39 ± 10 40 ± 12 p = 0.307 Triglycerides 195 ± 189 125 ± 66 p &lt; 0.001 CT/HDL 5.3 ± 1.5 6.8 ± 2.0 p &lt; 0.001 LDL/HDL 3.4 ± 1.1 2.8 ± 1.4 p &lt; 0.001 TG/HDL 5.6 ± 6.3 3.5 ± 2.5 p &lt; 0.001

The effects of smoking and alcoholism in acute coronary syndrome

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Several studies have concluded that smoking increases mortality in patients with coronary disease. On the other hand, a J-shaped dose-effect curve has been used to describe the relationship between alcohol and cardiovascular mortality. According to the majority of studies, a moderate intake of alcohol is associated with a decrease in mortality, while an excessive alcohol intake appears to increase mortality.

Aim

To evaluate the effect of smoking and excessive alcohol intake in hospital mortality and 1-year mortality in patients hospitalized due to acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Methods

A single-centre retrospective study was conducted, with inclusion of all consecutive patients admitted in the Cardiology Department due to ACS. Follow-up started after hospital admission and ended upon hospital death, death within the following 12 months or 12 months after study entry. Patients were divided in two groups: smokers (Group-A) and non-smokers (Group-B), to analyse the effect of smoking in hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. To analyse the effect of excessive alcohol intake, patients were also divided in other two groups: Group-C (excessive drinkers) and Group-D (non-excessive drinkers). Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS and a p value &lt; 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

1120 patients (68.9% male, mean age 69.12 ± 12.67 years) were included in this study. 20.5% were smokers and 3.2% had a previous excessive alcohol intake.

Between Group-A and Group-B, a statistically significant difference was observed in gender (93.1% male in Group-A vs 62.9% male in Group-B, p = 0.002), but not in age (p = 0.116). Hospital mortality rates in Group-A and Group-B were respectively 6.0% and 8.7% (p = 0.191) and 1-year mortality rates were 3.1% vs 5.1% (p = 0.239).

Between Group-C and Group-D, a statistically significant difference was observed in gender (94.4% male in Group-C vs 69.8% male in Group-B, p &lt; 0.001), but not in age (p = 0.730). Hospital mortality rates in Group-C and Group-D were respectively 25% and 9.6% (p = 0.003) and 1-year mortality were 3.8% vs 6.6% (p = 0.577).

Conclusions

Smoking did not have a positive or negative effect in hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. However, excessive alcohol intake was associated with increased hospital mortality in this population.

Control Strategies for Carcinogenic-Associated Helminthiases: An Integrated Overview

Helminthiases are extremely prevalent in the developing world. In addition, the chronic infection with some parasitic worms are classified as carcinogenic. Therefore, it is utmost importance to understand the parasite-host interactions, the mechanisms underlay carcinogenesis and how they could be counteracted. This knowledge may ultimately guide novel control strategies that include chemotherapy-based approaches targeting these pathogens and associated pathologies caused by their infections. Little is known on how some helminthiases are associated with cancer; however, it has been hypothesized that chemical carcinogenesis may be involved in the process. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on chemical carcinogenesis associated with helminthiases, along with available therapeutic options and potential therapeutic alternatives including chemotherapy and/or immunotherapy. Ideally, the treatment of the carcinogenic helminthiases should target both the parasite and associated pathologies. The success of any chemotherapeutic regimen often depends on the host immune response during the infection and nutritional status among other factors. The close association between chemotherapy and cell-mediated immunity suggests that a dual therapeutic approach would be advantageous. In addition, there is a pressing need for complementary drugs that antagonize the carcinogenesis process associated with the helminth infections.

Zoledronate repositioning as a potential trypanocidal drug. Trypanosoma cruzi HPRT an alternative target to be considered

Chagas disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and affects 7 million people worldwide. Considering the side effects and drug resistance shown by current treatments, the development of new anti-Chagas therapies is an urgent need. T. cruzi hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase (TcHPRT), the key enzyme of the purine salvage pathway, is essential for the survival of trypanosomatids. Previously, we assessed the inhibitory effect of different bisphosphonates (BPs), HPRT substrate analogues, on the activity of the isolated enzyme. BPs are used as a treatment for bone diseases and growth inhibition studies on T. cruzi have associated BPs action with the farnesyl diphosphate synthase inhibition. Here, we demonstrated significant growth inhibition of epimastigotes in the presence of BPs and a strong correlation with our previous results on the isolated TcHPRT, suggesting this enzyme as a possible and important target for these drugs. We also found that the parasites exhibited a delay at S phase in the presence of zoledronate pointing out enzymes involved in the cell cycle, such as TcHPRT, as intracellular targets. Moreover, we validated that micromolar concentrations of zoledronate are capable to interfere with the progression of cell infection by this parasite. Altogether, our findings allow us to propose the repositioning of zoledronate as a promising candidate against Chagas disease and TcHPRT as a new target for future rational design of antiparasitic drugs.

Recycling waste plastics in roads: A life-cycle assessment study using primary data

The present study investigates - from an environmental perspective - the processes that lead to the conversion of waste plastics into recycled plastic pellets to be used either as an additive (wet method) or as a replacement of natural aggregate (dry method) in the production of asphalt mixes. Data from recycling facilities in Victoria, Australia, were collected and used as the basis for a comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) study. Analyses were conducted by considering several replacement ratios of virgin material by its recycled counterpart in the so-called wet and dry method. A case study considering the production of recycled-plastic asphalt to be applied in the construction of a typical surface layer of a road in Victoria was evaluated. In general, the results show that recycling plastics as a polymer for bitumen modification and as a synthetic aggregate replacement in asphalt mixes has the potential to be environmentally advantageous compared to their virgin counterpart (i.e. virgin polymers and natural quarry aggregates).

Urogenital Schistosomiasis-History, Pathogenesis, and Bladder Cancer

Schistosomiasis is the most important helminthiasis worldwide in terms of morbidity and mortality. Most of the infections occurs in Africa, which about two thirds are caused by Schistosoma haematobium. The infection with S. haematobium is considered carcinogenic leading to squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder. Additionally, it is responsible for female genital schistosomiasis leading to infertility and higher risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. Remarkably, a recent outbreak in Corsica (France) drew attention to its potential re-mergence in Southern Europe. Thus far, little is known related to host-parasite interactions that trigger carcinogenesis. However, recent studies have opened new avenues to understand mechanisms on how the parasite infection can lead cancer and other associated pathologies. Here, we present a historical perspective of schistosomiasis, and review the infection-associated pathologies and studies on host-parasite interactions that unveil tentative mechanisms underlying schistosomiasis-associated carcinogenesis.

Incidence of recently acquired hepatitis C virus infection among HIV-infected patients in southern Spain

OBJECTIVES

Spain is close to HCV microelimination, so rates of recently acquired HCV infection (RAHC) should decrease. Nowadays, men who have sex with men (MSM) carry the highest risk of HCV acquisition. Our aim was to estimate the incidence of and the factors associated with RAHC, together with reinfection rates, among patients sexually infected by HIV.

METHODS

Primary RAHC infection was diagnosed when anti-HCV antibody seroconversion was documented. In anti-HCV positive patients, initially without HCV viraemia, a diagnosis of reinfection was established if plasma HCV RNA was detected.

RESULTS

All 350 patients tested negative for anti-HCV at baseline and had at least one follow-up visit. Among them, there were 16 RAHC cases from 2016 to 2019. RAHC incidence rates [IR (95% confidence interval, CI)] per 100 person-years were 3.77 (0.5-12.9) in 2016, 1.85 (0.6-4.3) in 2017, 1.49 (0.4-3.8) in 2018 and 1.98 (0.6-4.5) in 2019. Only previous sexually transmitted infections [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 18.23, 95% CI: 1.93-172.1; P = 0.011], male sex (IRR = 8.33, 95% CI: 1.38-54.15; P = 0.026) and sharing chem-sex drugs (IRR: 4.93, 95% CI: 1.17-20.76; P = 0.030), were independently associated with RAHC. Four out of 42 (9.5%) patients became reinfected.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of RAHC among HIV-infected patients showed a decrease after 2016, although a lower but steady incidence of residual cases still remains. HCV reinfections showed a similar pattern. New infections were associated with sharing chem-sex drugs among MSM.

Data integration for infrastructure asset management in small to medium-sized water utilities

Water utilities collect, store and manage vast data sets using many information systems (IS). For infrastructure asset management (IAM) planning those data need to be processed and transformed into information. However, information management efficiency often falls short of desired results. This happens particularly in municipalities where management is structured according to local government models. Along with the existing IS at the utilities' disposal, engineers and managers take their decisions based on information that is often incomplete, inaccurate or out-of-date. One of the main challenges faced by asset managers is integrating the several, often conflicting, sources of information available on the infrastructure, its condition and performance, and the various predictive analyses that can assist in prioritizing projects or interventions. This paper presents an overview of the IS used by Portuguese water utilities and discusses how data from different IS can be integrated in order to support IAM.