Amoxicillin for acute lower-respiratory-tract infection in primary care when pneumonia is not suspected: a 12-country, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Lower-respiratory-tract infection is one of the most common acute illnesses managed in primary care. Few placebo-controlled studies of antibiotics have been done, and overall effectiveness (particularly in subgroups such as older people) is debated. We aimed to compare the benefits and harms of amoxicillin for acute lower-respiratory-tract infection with those of placebo both overall and in patients aged 60 years or older.

METHODS

Patients older than 18 years with acute lower-respiratory-tract infections (cough of ≤28 days' duration) in whom pneumonia was not suspected were randomly assigned (1:1) to either amoxicillin (1 g three times daily for 7 days) or placebo by computer-generated random numbers. Our primary outcome was duration of symptoms rated "moderately bad" or worse. Secondary outcomes were symptom severity in days 2-4 and new or worsening symptoms. Investigators and patients were masked to treatment allocation. This trial is registered with EudraCT (2007-001586-15), UKCRN Portfolio (ID 4175), ISRCTN (52261229), and FWO (G.0274.08N).

FINDINGS

1038 patients were assigned to the amoxicillin group and 1023 to the placebo group. Neither duration of symptoms rated "moderately bad" or worse (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 0.96-1.18; p=0.229) nor mean symptom severity (1.69 with placebo vs 1.62 with amoxicillin; difference -0.07 [95% CI -0.15 to 0.007]; p=0.074) differed significantly between groups. New or worsening symptoms were significantly less common in the amoxicillin group than in the placebo group (162 [15.9%] of 1021 patients vs 194 [19.3%] of 1006; p=0.043; number needed to treat 30). Cases of nausea, rash, or diarrhoea were significantly more common in the amoxicillin group than in the placebo group (number needed to harm 21, 95% CI 11-174; p=0.025), and one case of anaphylaxis was noted with amoxicillin. Two patients in the placebo group and one in the amoxicillin group needed to be admitted to hospital; no study-related deaths were noted. We noted no evidence of selective benefit in patients aged 60 years or older (n=595).

INTERPRETATION

When pneumonia is not suspected clinically, amoxicillin provides little benefit for acute lower-respiratory-tract infection in primary care both overall and in patients aged 60 years or more, and causes slight harms.

FUNDING

European Commission Framework Programme 6, UK National Institute for Health Research, Barcelona Ciberde Enfermedades Respiratorias, and Research Foundation Flanders.

Clinical and cost effectiveness of booklet based vestibular rehabilitation for chronic dizziness in primary care: single blind, parallel group, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of booklet based vestibular rehabilitation with and without telephone support for chronic dizziness, compared with routine care.

DESIGN

Single blind, parallel group, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

35 general practices across southern England between October 2008 and January 2011.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 18 years or over with chronic dizziness (mean duration >five years) not attributable to non-vestibular causes (confirmed by general practitioner) and that could be aggravated by head movement (confirmed by patient).

INTERVENTIONS

Participants randomly allocated to receive routine medical care, booklet based vestibular rehabilitation only, or booklet based vestibular rehabilitation with telephone support. For the booklet approach, participants received self management booklets providing comprehensive advice on undertaking vestibular rehabilitation exercises at home daily for up to 12 weeks and using cognitive behavioural techniques to promote positive beliefs and treatment adherence. Participants receiving telephone support were offered up to three brief sessions of structured support from a vestibular therapist.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Vertigo symptom scale-short form and total healthcare costs related to dizziness per quality adjusted life year (QALY).

RESULTS

Of 337 randomised participants, 276 (82%) completed all clinical measures at the primary endpoint, 12 weeks, and 263 (78%) at one year follow-up. We analysed clinical effectiveness by intention to treat, using analysis of covariance to compare groups after intervention, controlling for baseline symptom scores. At 12 weeks, scores on the vertigo symptom scale in the telephone support group did not differ significantly from those in the routine care group (adjusted mean difference -1.79 (95% confidence interval -3.69 to 0.11), P=0.064). At one year, both intervention groups improved significantly relative to routine care (telephone support -2.52 (-4.52 to -0.51), P=0.014; booklet only -2.43 (-4.27 to -0.60), P=0.010). Analysis of cost effectiveness acceptability curves showed that both interventions were highly cost effective; at very low QALY values, the booklet only approach was most likely to be cost effective, but the approach with additional telephone support was most likely to be cost effective at QALY values more than £1200 (€1488; $1932). Using the booklet approach with telephone support, five (three to 12) patients would need to be treated for one patient to report subjective improvement at one year.

CONCLUSIONS

Booklet based vestibular rehabilitation for chronic dizziness is a simple and cost effective means of improving patient reported outcomes in primary care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00732797.

The effect of early confirmation of hearing loss on the behaviour in middle childhood of children with bilateral hearing impairment

AIM

To determine if the benefit of early confirmation of permanent childhood hearing impairment (PCHI) on children's receptive language development is associated with fewer behavioural problems.

METHOD

Follow-up of a total population cohort of 120 children with PCHI of moderate or greater severity (≥ 40 decibels relative to hearing threshold level) (67 males, 53 females; mean age 7 y 11 mo, range 5 y 5 mo-11 y 8 mo) and 63 hearing children (37 males, 26 females; mean age 8 y 1 mo, range 6 y 4 mo-9 y 10 mo). The main outcome measures were the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) completed by teachers and parents and the Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scales (VABS) which are completed on the basis of a parental interview.

RESULTS

Children with PCHI had lower standard scores than hearing children on the Daily Living Skills (p=0.001) and the Socialisation (p=0.001) scales of the VABS. They had significantly higher Total Behaviour Problem scores on the parent-rated (p=0.002) and teacher-rated SDQ (p=0.03). Children for whom PCHI was confirmed by 9 months did not have significantly fewer problems on the behavioural measures than those confirmed after that age (p=0.635 and p=0.196).

INTERPRETATION

Early confirmation has a beneficial effect on receptive language development but no significant impact in reducing behavioural problems in children with PCHI.

Validating the prediction of lower urinary tract infection in primary care: sensitivity and specificity of urinary dipsticks and clinical scores in women

BACKGROUND

Dipsticks are one of the most commonly used near-patient tests in primary care, but few clinical or dipstick algorithms have been rigorously developed.

AIM

To confirm whether previously documented clinical and dipstick variables and algorithms predict laboratory diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI).

DESIGN OF STUDY

Validation study.

SETTING

Primary care.

METHOD

A total of 434 adult females with suspected lower UTI had bacteriuria assessed using the European Urinalysis Guidelines.

RESULTS

Sixty-six per cent of patients had confirmed UTI. The predictive values of nitrite, leucocyte esterase (+ or greater), and blood (haemolysed trace or greater) were confirmed (independent multivariate odds ratios = 5.6, 3.5, and 2.1 respectively). The previously developed dipstick rule--based on presence of nitrite, or both leucocytes and blood-- was moderately sensitive (75%) but less specific (66%; positive predictive value [PPV] 81%, negative predictive value [NPV] 57%). Predictive values were improved by varying the cut-off point: NPV was 76% for all three dipstick results being negative; the PPV was 92% for having nitrite and either blood or leucocyte esterase. Urine offensive smell was not found to be predictive in this sample; for a clinical score using the remaining three predictive clinical features (urine cloudiness, dysuria, and nocturia), NPV was 67% for none of the features, and PPV was 82% for three features.

CONCLUSION

A clinical score is of limited value in increasing diagnostic precision. Dipstick results can modestly improve diagnostic precision but poorly rule out infection. Clinicians need strategies to take account of poor NPVs.

Effectiveness of five different approaches in management of urinary tract infection: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of different management strategies in urinary tract infections.

DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

309 non-pregnant women aged 18-70 presenting with suspected urinary tract infection.

INTERVENTION

Patients were randomised to five management approaches: empirical antibiotics; empirical delayed (by 48 hours) antibiotics; or targeted antibiotics based on a symptom score (two or more of urine cloudiness, urine smell, nocturia, or dysuria), a dipstick result (nitrite or both leucocytes and blood), or a positive result on midstream urine analysis. Self help advice was controlled in each group.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Symptom severity (days 2 to 4) and duration, and use of antibiotics.

RESULTS

Patients had 3.5 days of moderately bad symptoms if they took antibiotics immediately. There were no significant differences in duration or severity of symptoms (mean frequency of symptoms on a 0 to 6 scale: immediate antibiotics 2.15, midstream urine 2.08, dipstick 1.74, symptom score 1.77, delayed antibiotics 2.11; likelihood ratio test for the five groups P=0.177). There were differences in antibiotic use (immediate antibiotics 97%, midstream urine 81%, dipstick 80%, symptom score 90%, delayed antibiotics 77%; P=0.011) and in sending midstream urine samples (immediate antibiotics 23%, midstream urine 89%, dipstick 36%, symptom score 33%, delayed antibiotics 15%; P<0.001). Patients who waited at least 48 hours to start taking antibiotics reconsulted less (hazard ratio 0.57 (95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.89), P=0.014) but on average had symptoms for 37% longer than those taking immediate antibiotics (incident rate ratio 1.37 (1.11 to 1.68), P=0.003), particularly the midstream urine group (73% longer, 22% to 140%; none of the other groups had more than 22% longer duration).

CONCLUSION

All management strategies achieve similar symptom control. There is no advantage in routinely sending midstream urine samples for testing, and antibiotics targeted with dipstick tests with a delayed prescription as backup, or empirical delayed prescription, can help to reduce antibiotic use.

STUDY REGISTRATION

National Research Register N0484094184 ISRCTN: 03525333.

Presentation, pattern, and natural course of severe symptoms, and role of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance among patients presenting with suspected uncomplicated urinary tract infection in primary care: observational study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the natural course and the important predictors of severe symptoms in urinary tract infection and the effect of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

839 non-pregnant adult women aged 18-70 presenting with suspected urinary tract infection.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Duration and severity of symptoms.

RESULTS

684 women provided some information on symptoms; 511 had both laboratory results and complete symptom diaries. For women with infections sensitive to antibiotics, severe symptoms, rated as a moderately bad problem or worse, lasted 3.32 days on average. After adjustment for other predictors, moderately bad symptoms lasted 56% longer (incidence rate ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 1.99, P<0.001) in women with resistant infections; 62% longer (1.62, 1.13 to 2.31, P=0.008) when no antibiotics prescribed; and 33% longer (1.33, 1.14 to 1.56, P<0.001) in women with urethral syndrome. The duration of symptoms was shorter if the doctor was perceived to be positive about diagnosis and prognosis (continuous 7 point scale: 0.91, 0.84 to 0.99; P=0.021) and longer when the woman had frequent somatic symptoms (1.03, 1.01 to 1.05, P=0.002; for each symptom), a history of cystitis, urinary frequency, and more severe symptoms at baseline.

CONCLUSION

Antibiotic resistance and not prescribing antibiotics are associated with a greater than 50% increase in the duration of more severe symptoms in women with uncomplicated urinary tract infection. Women with a history of cystitis, frequent somatic symptoms (high somatisation), and severe symptoms at baseline can be given realistic advice that they are likely to have severe symptoms lasting longer than three days.

Cost effectiveness of management strategies for urinary tract infections: results from randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost effectiveness of different management strategies for urinary tract infections.

DESIGN

Cost effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial with a one month follow-up.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

309 non-pregnant adult women aged 18-70 presenting with suspected urinary tract infection.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomised to five basic management approaches: empirical antibiotics, empirical delayed (by 48 hours) antibiotics, or targeted antibiotics based on either a high symptom score (two or more of urine cloudiness, smell, nocturia, dysuria), dipstick results (nitrite or leucocytes and blood), or receipt of a positive result on midstream urine analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Duration of symptoms and cost of care.

RESULTS

Management with targeted antibiotics with midstream urine analysis was more costly over the period of one month. Costs for the midstream urine analysis and dipstick management groups were pound37 and pound35, respectively; these compared with pound31 for immediate antibiotics. Cost effectiveness acceptability curves suggested that if avoiding a day of moderately bad symptoms was valued at less than pound10, then immediate antibiotics is likely to be the most cost effective strategy. For values over pound10, targeted antibiotics with dipstick testing becomes the most cost effective strategy, though because of the uncertainty we can never be more than 70% certain that this strategy truly is the most cost effective.

CONCLUSION

Dipstick testing with targeted antibiotics is likely to be cost effective if the value of saving a day of moderately bad symptoms is pound10 or more, but caution is required given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimates.

An evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of booklet-based self-management of dizziness in primary care, with and without expert telephone support

Background

Dizziness is a very common symptom that often leads to reduced quality of life, anxiety and emotional distress, loss of fitness, lack of confidence in balance, unsteadiness and an increased risk of falling. Most dizzy patients are managed in primary care by reassurance and medication to suppress symptoms. Trials have shown that chronic dizziness can be treated effectively in primary care using a self-help booklet to teach patients vestibular rehabilitation exercises that promote neurological adaptation and skill and confidence in balance. However, brief support from a trained nurse was provided in these trials, and this model of managing dizzy patients has not been taken up due to a lack of skills and resources in primary care. The aim of this trial is to evaluate two new alternative models of delivery that may be more feasible and cost-effective.

Methods/Design

In a single blind two-centre pragmatic controlled trial, we will randomise 330 patients from 30 practices to a) self-help booklet with telephone support from a vestibular therapist, b) self-help booklet alone, c) routine medical care. Symptoms, disability, handicap and quality of life will be assessed by validated questionnaires administered by post at baseline, immediately post-treatment (3 months), and at one year follow-up. The study is powered to test our primary hypothesis, that the self-help booklet with telephone support will be more effective than routine care. We will also explore the effectiveness of the booklet without any support, and calculate the costs of treatment in each arm.

Discussion

If our trial indicates that patients can cost-effectively manage their dizziness in primary care, then it can be easily rolled out to relieve the symptoms of the many patients in primary care who currently have chronic, untreated, disabling dizziness. Treatment in primary care may reduce the development of psychological and physical sequelae that cause handicap and require treatment. There is also the potential to reduce the cost to the NHS of treating dizziness by reducing demand for referral to secondary care for specialist assessment and treatment.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov trial registration ID number: NCT00732797

Dipsticks and diagnostic algorithms in urinary tract infection: development and validation, randomised trial, economic analysis, observational cohort and qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate clinical and dipstick predictors of infection and develop and test clinical scores; to compare management using clinical and dipstick scores with commonly used alternative strategies; to estimate the cost-effectiveness of each strategy; and to understand the natural history of urinary tract infection (UTI) and women's concerns about its presentation and management.

DESIGN

There were six studies: (1) validation development for diagnostic clinical and dipstick scores; (2) validation of the scores developed; (3) observation of the natural history of UTI; (4) randomised controlled trial (RCT) of scores developed in study 1; (5) economic analysis of the RCT; (6) qualitative study of patients in the RCT.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 17-70 with suspected UTI.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomised to five management approaches: empirical antibiotics; empirical delayed antibiotics; target antibiotics based on a higher symptom score; target antibiotics based on dipstick results; or target antibiotics based on a positive mid-stream specimen of urine (MSU).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Antibiotic use, use of MSUs, rates of reconsultation and duration, and severity of symptoms.

RESULTS

(1) 62.5% of women had confirmed UTI. Only nitrite, leucocyte esterase and blood independently predicted diagnosis of UTI. A dipstick rule--based on having nitrite or both leucocytes and blood--was moderately sensitive (77%) and specific (70%) [positive predictive value (PPV) 81%, negative predictive value (NPV) 65%]. A clinical rule--based on having two of urine cloudiness, offensive smell, reported moderately severe dysuria, moderately severe nocturia--was less sensitive (65%) (specificity 69%, PPV 77%, NPV 54%). (2) 66% of women had confirmed UTI. The predictive values of nitrite, leucocyte esterase and blood were confirmed. The dipstick rule was moderately sensitive (75%) but less specific (66%) (PPV 81%, NPV 57%). (3) Symptoms rated as moderately bad or worse lasted 3.25 days on average for infections sensitive to antibiotics; resistant infections lasted 56% longer, infections not treated with antibiotics 62% longer and symptoms associated with urethral syndrome 33% longer. Symptom duration was shorter if the doctor was perceived to be positive about prognosis, and longer with frequent somatic symptoms, previous history of cystitis, urinary frequency and more severe symptoms at baseline. (4) 66% of the MSU group had laboratory-confirmed UTI. Women suffered 3.5 days of moderately bad symptoms if they took antibiotics immediately but 4.8 days if they delayed taking antibiotics for 48 hours. Taking bicarbonate or cranberry juice had no effect. (5) The MSU group was more costly over 1 month but not over 1 year. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that for a value per day of moderately bad symptoms of over 10 pounds, the dipstick strategy is most likely to be cost-effective. (6) Fear of spread to the kidneys, blood in the urine, and the impact of symptoms on vocational and leisure activities were important triggers for seeking help. When patients are asked to delay taking antibiotics the uncomfortable and worrying journey from 'person to patient' needs to be acknowledged and the rationale behind delaying the antibiotics made clear.

CONCLUSIONS

To achieve good symptom control and reduce antibiotic use clinicians should either offer a 48-hour delayed antibiotic prescription to be used at the patient's discretion or target antibiotic treatment by dipsticks (positive nitrite or positive leucocytes and blood) with the offer of a delayed prescription if dipstick results are negative.

Reading and communication skills after universal newborn screening for permanent childhood hearing impairment

BACKGROUND

Birth in periods with universal newborn screening (UNS) for permanent childhood hearing impairment (PCHI) and early confirmation of PCHI have been associated with superior subsequent language ability in children with PCHI. However their effects on reading and communication skills have not been addressed in a population-based study.

METHODS

In a follow-up study of a large birth cohort in southern England, we measured reading by direct assessment and communication skills by parent report in 120 children with bilateral moderate, severe or profound PCHI aged 5.4-11.7 years, of whom 61 had been born in periods with UNS, and in a comparison group of 63 children with normal hearing.

RESULTS

Compared with birth during periods without UNS, birth during periods with UNS was associated with better reading scores (inter-group difference 0.39 SDs, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.76, p = 0.042) and communication skills scores (difference 0.51 SDs, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.95, p = 0.026). Compared with later confirmation, confirmation of PCHI by age 9 months was also associated with better reading (difference 0.51 SDs, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.87, p = 0.006) and communication skills (difference 0.56 SDs, 95% CI 0.12 to 1.00, p = 0.013). In the children with PCHI, reading, communication and language ability were highly correlated (r = 0.62-0.84, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Birth during periods with UNS and early confirmation of PCHI predict better reading and communication abilities at primary school age. These benefits represent functional gains of sufficient magnitude to be important in children with PCHI.

Recording of vital signs in a district general hospital emergency department

AIM

To examine and explore factors that may influence the recording of vital signs in adult patients within the initial 15 min and again within 60 min of arrival in the "resuscitation" and "major" areas of the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of recording of vital signs was performed on 400 consecutive sets of notes from adult patients presenting to the "major" or "resuscitation" areas of a district general hospital ED. The effect of staffing levels, triage category and attendances on the recording of vital signs was examined using logistic regression. The main outcome measures were the proportion of patients with all vital signs recorded within 15 min of arrival, the proportion of patients with all vital signs repeated within 60 min of arrival and the outcomes of logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Only 223/387 patients (58%) had all vital signs recorded within 15 min of arrival and only 29/387 (7%) had all vital signs repeated at 60 min. There was a significant relationship between the failure to record vital signs and lower triage categories. There was no evidence that staffing levels or number of attendances predicted the recording of vital signs within 15 min of arrival.

CONCLUSION

Recording of vital signs was poor and unrelated to staffing levels or numbers of patients attending the ED. Failure to record patients' vital signs undermines strategies to detect and manage ill patients.

Language ability in children with permanent hearing impairment: the influence of early management and family participation

OBJECTIVE

The goal was to examine the relationships between management after confirmation, family participation, and speech and language outcomes in the same group of children with permanent childhood hearing impairment.

METHODS

Speech, oral language, and nonverbal abilities, expressed as z scores and adjusted in a regression model, and Family Participation Rating Scale scores were assessed at a mean age of 7.9 years for 120 children with bilateral permanent childhood hearing impairment from a 1992-1997 United Kingdom birth cohort. Ages at institution of management and hearing aid fitting were obtained retrospectively from case notes.

RESULTS

Compared with children managed later (> 9 months), those managed early (< or = 9 months) had higher adjusted mean z scores for both receptive and expressive language, relative to nonverbal ability, but not for speech. Compared with children aided later, a smaller group of more-impaired children aided early did not have significantly higher scores for these outcomes. Family Participation Rating Scale scores showed significant positive correlations with language and speech intelligibility scores only for those with confirmation after 9 months and were highest for those with late confirmed, severe/profound, permanent childhood hearing impairment.

CONCLUSIONS

Early management of permanent childhood hearing impairment results in improved language. Family participation is also an important factor in cases that are confirmed late, especially for children with severe or profound permanent childhood hearing impairment.

Effects of Acupuncture As A Treatment for Hyperventilation Syndrome: A Pilot, Randomized Crossover Trial

BACKGROUND

Sustained and subtle hyperventilation can result in a wide variety of symptoms, leading to a chronic condition that has been termed hyperventilation syndrome (HVS). Treatment options include physiotherapy, in the form of breathing retraining (BR), but additional approaches aim to reduce the anxiety that is recognized as being a frequent component of this condition.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether acupuncture is an appropriate treatment for HVS to reduce anxiety, and whether a crossover trial is an appropriate study design to evaluate acupuncture in this condition.

DESIGN

A single-blind crossover trial was carried out comparing the effects of 4 weeks (30 minutes twice weekly) acupuncture and BR on patients with HVS.

SUBJECTS

Ten (10) patients diagnosed with HVS were recruited to the trial and randomized into two groups. Both groups received acupuncture and BR with a washout period of 1 week.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure used was the Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HAD) Scale. Other outcome measures used were the Nijmegen questionnaire and Medical Research Council Dyspnea scale.

RESULTS

The results showed statistically significant treatment differences between acupuncture and breathing retraining, in favor of acupuncture. Reductions were found in the HAD A (anxiety) (p = 0.02) and Nijmegen (symptoms) (p = 0.03) scores. There was no statistical evidence of any carryover effects. However, when graphically examining individual anxiety scores, in those who received acupuncture first, there was a reduction in anxiety levels which persisted through the washout period, suggesting that there may have been some carryover effect from this treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that acupuncture may be beneficial in the management of HVS in terms of reducing anxiety levels and symptom severity. However, there may be some carryover effect, after acupuncture treatment, which went undetected because the small sample size. This preliminary study provides the basis for a larger, sufficiently powered and methodologically sound trial.

Will Rogers revisited: prospective observational study of survival of 3592 patients with colorectal cancer according to number of nodes examined by pathologists

To investigate the relationship between survival in colorectal cancer patients and the number of lymph nodes examined by a pathologist, previously attributed to stage migration, we used data from a cohort of 5174 colorectal cancer patients recruited between September 1991 and August 1994, and followed-up for 5 years. We selected cases with data present on all prognostic variables, and stratified them into three groups by number of nodes examined. We made a multivariate survival comparison using a Cox regression model. In all, there were 3592 cases with data present on all prognostic variables. Patients who had >10 nodes identified had a significant survival advantage over those who had 5–10 identified, who had in turn a similar advantage over those with 0–4 identified (P<0.001). This effect was present in the whole group and at all Dukes' stages, although statistically significant only in stages B (P=0.004) and C (P=0.019). The effect remained after adjustment in a Cox regression model in which the mean number of nodes taken out by each surgical firm did not predict survival. In a sub-group with data on lymphocytic infiltration into the primary tumour a survival advantage was noted in those with prominent rather than mild infiltration (P<0.001): the former also tended to have more nodes found (P=0.015). Stage migration alone cannot explain these results, as survival advantages are noted across the whole population independent of stage. Lymphocytic infiltration into the primary tumour is prognostically important, and is associated with the number of nodes found. Reactive enlargement of lymph nodes in the mesentery may make them easier to find, reflect immune response to the tumour, and thus indirectly impact upon survival.

Developing clinical rules to predict urinary tract infection in primary care settings: sensitivity and specificity of near patient tests (dipsticks) and clinical scores

BACKGROUND

Suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common presentations in primary care. Systematic reviews have not documented any adequately powered studies in primary care that assess independent predictors of laboratory diagnosis.

AIM

To estimate independent clinical and dipstick predictors of infection and to develop clinical decision rules.

DESIGN OF STUDY

Validation study of clinical and dipstick findings compared with laboratory testing.

SETTING

General practices in the south of England.

METHOD

Laboratory diagnosis of 427 women with suspected UTI was assessed using European urinalysis guidelines. Independent clinical and dipstick predictors of diagnosis were estimated.

RESULTS

UTI was confirmed in 62.5% of women with suspected UTI. Only nitrite, leucocyte esterase (+ or greater), and blood (haemolysed trace or greater) independently predicted diagnosis (adjusted odds ratios 6.36, 4.52, 2.23 respectively). A dipstick decision rule, based on having nitrite, or both leucocytes and blood, was moderately sensitive (77%) and specific (70%); positive predictive value (PPV) was 81% and negative predictive value (NPV) was 65%. Predictive values were improved by varying the cut-off point: NPV was 73% for all three dipstick results being negative, and PPV was 92% for having nitrite and either blood or leucocyte esterase. A clinical decision rule, based on having two of the following: urine cloudiness, offensive smell, and dysuria and/or nocturia of moderate severity, was less sensitive (65%) (specificity 69%; PPV 77%, NPV 54%). NPV was 71% for none of the four clinical features, and the PPV was 84% for three or more features.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple decision rules could improve targeting of investigation and treatment. Strategies to use such rules need to take into account limited negative predictive value, which is lower than expected from previous research.

Language ability after early detection of permanent childhood hearing impairment

BACKGROUND

Children with bilateral permanent hearing impairment often have impaired language and speech abilities. However, the effects of universal newborn screening for permanent bilateral childhood hearing impairment and the effects of confirmation of hearing impairment by nine months of age on subsequent verbal abilities are uncertain.

METHODS

We studied 120 children with bilateral permanent hearing impairment identified from a large birth cohort in southern England, at a mean of 7.9 years of age. Of the 120 children, 61 were born during periods with universal newborn screening and 57 had hearing impairment that was confirmed by nine months of age. The primary outcomes were language as compared with nonverbal ability and speech expressed as z scores (the number of standard deviations by which the score differed from the mean score among 63 age-matched children with normal hearing), adjusted for the severity of the hearing impairment and for maternal education.

RESULTS

Confirmation of hearing impairment by nine months of age was associated with higher adjusted mean z scores for language as compared with nonverbal ability (adjusted mean difference for receptive language, 0.82; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31 to 1.33; and adjusted mean difference for expressive language, 0.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.13 to 1.26). Birth during periods with universal newborn screening was also associated with higher adjusted z scores for receptive language as compared with nonverbal ability (adjusted mean difference, 0.60; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.07 to 1.13), although the z scores for expressive language as compared with nonverbal ability were not significantly higher. Speech scores did not differ significantly between those who were exposed to newborn screening or early confirmation and those who were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Early detection of childhood hearing impairment was associated with higher scores for language but not for speech in midchildhood.

Nurse-led paediatric pre operative assessment: an equivalence study

AIM

to explore whether nurses can undertake the pre operative assessment of children prior to day case surgery as safely as senior house officers.

DESIGN

a randomised controlled trial involving 595 children, using an equivalence methodology (a method which looks for similarity rather than a significant difference). Pre-operative assessment prior to day case surgery was randomised to either a nurse (experimental group) or a junior doctor (control group). Blinded expert verification of nurse/junior doctor performance was ascertained by an experienced anaesthetist (the 'gold standard').

RESULTS

there was equivalence between nurses and senior house officers in their ability to detect clinically significant abnormalities within the sample population. Subgroup analysis also demonstrated equivalence in respect of history taking abilities. The smaller number of clinically significant physical findings within the sample meant that equivalence in respect of physical examination remains uncertain. Although the study was limited to a single setting, the results demonstrate nurses' equivalence with junior doctors in a discrete paediatric context.

Immunohistochemical analysis of the antiapoptotic Mcl-1 and Bcl-2 proteins in follicular lymphoma

In the present study, we investigated the expression of Mcl-1 and Bcl-2 by immunohistochemistry in 85 patients of grades 1-3 and transformed follicular lymphoma (FL). In lymphoma tissue, centroblasts uniformly expressed high levels of Mcl-1 (Mcl-1(hi)) whereas centrocytes demonstrated low Mcl-1 expression (Mcl-1(lo)). Bcl-2 expression in centroblasts/centrocytes was reciprocal to Mcl-1 staining in most cases. A high number of Mcl-1(hi) centroblasts in tissue sections (> or =200/high-power field) correlated with poor overall survival (P < 0.001), independent of the International Prognostic Index and FL grade. This suggests that the number of centroblasts with strong Mcl-1 staining is associated with clinical outcome in FL patients.

Consultations for middle ear disease, antibiotic prescribing and risk factors for reattendance: a case-linked cohort study

BACKGROUND

Otitis media is the most common reason for children to receive antibiotics, but there is no evidence about the effect of prescribing on reattendance.

AIM

To evaluate the changing workload of middle ear disease in general practice, and the impact on surgery reattendance of prescribing antibiotics at first attendance.

DESIGN OF STUDY

A case-linked cohort analysis for antibiotic prescribing versus no prescribing at first consultation event.

SETTING

Two hundred and ninety-one practices spread throughout the UK recording for the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) and incorporating individual patient data records for 2,265,574 patients.

METHOD

All middle ear disease coded events that can be classed within acute otitis media (AOM) or glue ear sub-categories (and excluding chronic suppurative otitis media) were selected for analysis when the first event was from 1991-2001. The effect of antibiotic prescription on the risk of reattendance using Cox proportional hazards regression was analysed.

RESULTS

Total consultations for AOM have fallen markedly over this decade, and glue ear consultations have risen but by a much smaller extent (26,000 decrease versus 4000 increase in consultations per year), which makes relabelling an unlikely explanation of the fall in AOM consultations. In the 2-10 years age range, consultations for AOM fell from 105.3 to 34.7 per 1000 per year, with glue ear consultations unaltered (15.2 to 16.7 per 1000 per year). Antibiotic prescribing for AOM has stayed remarkably constant (80-84% of consultations), but antibiotic prescribing for glue ear has risen sharply (13 to 62%). Prescribing antibiotics increased the risk of reattendance for AOM (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 1.10) and has reduced the risk of reattendance for glue ear (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88 to 0.96).

CONCLUSION

Prescribing antibiotics for AOM probably increased reattendance, but the opposite effect has been noted for glue ear, which suggests a treatment effect of antibiotics in glue ear. Further research is needed to clarify whether this possible benefit is worth the known harms, and if so in which subgroups of children.

Association between dementia and infectious disease: evidence from a case-control study

Inflammation plays a part in the etiology of dementia. Whether this is the primary pathogenesis, or a secondary reaction is unclear. We postulate that since systemic infection can provoke the enhanced synthesis of inflammatory mediators in the brain, such diseases may promote the onset of dementia. We carried out a nested case-control study using the General Practice Research Database. Cases were patients with incident dementia, and controls without such a diagnosis. Infectious episodes in the four years preceding diagnosis were counted using diagnostic codes, or prescription codes for anti-infective drugs. We considered age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and frequency of consultation as potential confounders. There were 9954 valid cases, and 9374 valid controls. Cases were on average older, more likely to be female, to smoke and to have diabetes, than the controls. There was an increased risk of diagnosis of dementia in those patients older than 84 with infections (OR for 2 or more infections compared with 0 or 1 = 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.7). Smoking and diabetes mellitus were also shown to markedly increase the risk of diagnosis of dementia. We have shown a positive association between episodes of infection and increased likelihood of diagnosis of dementia in the very elderly. Smoking and diabetes mellitus are associated with onset of dementia in the elderly. The evidence from this study may represent cause and effect, since there is a credible biologic explanation.

An evaluation of the costs, effectiveness and quality of renal replacement therapy provision in renal satellite units in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

To survey of the structure, processes and organisation of renal satellite units (RSUs) in England and Wales (Phase 1), and to compare the effectiveness, acceptability, accessibility and economic impact of chronic haemodialysis performed in RSUs compared to main renal units (MRUs) (Phase 2).

DATA SOURCES

Phase 1: all renal satellite units in England and Wales. Phase 2: haemodialysis patients in a representative sample (based on geography, site, private--public ownership, medical input) of 12 RSUs and their MRUs.

REVIEW METHODS

Phase 1 consisted of a questionnaire survey. Semi-structured interviews were held in a representative sample of 24 RSUs with the senior clinician, senior nurse and manager. Phase 2 consisted of a cross-sectional comparison of patients in these RSUs and patients in the parent MRUs deemed suitable for satellite care by senior staff. Clinical information was obtained from medical notes and unit computer systems. Generic and disease specific health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures were used. Co-morbidity was assessed by the Wright/Khan Index, the Lister/Chandna score, the Modified Charlson Index, and the Karnofsky Performance Score. Statistical analyses compared RSU versus MRU patients and took account of the paired and clustered nature of the data.

RESULTS

In Phase 1, responses were received from 74/80 (93%) of RSUs; 2600 patients were being treated in these RSUs. The interviews were generally positive about the impact of RSUs in terms of improved accessibility and a better environment for chronic haemodialysis (HD) patients, and in expanding renal replacement therapy patients (RRT) capacity. In Phase 2, some 82% of eligible patients took part, 394 patients in the 12 RSUs and 342 in the parent MRUs. The response rate was similar in both groups. There were no significant differences in clinical processes of care. Most clinical outcomes were similar, especially after pooled analysis, although a few parameters were statistically significantly different -- notably the proportion achieving Renal Association Standards for adequacy of dialysis as measured by the urea reduction ratio (URR) was higher in the RSU patients. Patient-specific quality of life did not differ except on the patient satisfaction questions from the KDQOL, which were scored higher by the RSU sample. Strength of preference for health status on and off dialysis was very similar between the groups, as were EQ-5D utilities. Major adverse events were not common in the RSU patients, although there were many hypotensive episodes on HD, a proportion of which affected the duration of the HD session. Of the costs measured, the only difference that was statistically significant was for District Nurse visits. Of particular note was that despite the MRU group having a higher proportion of patients hospitalised, this did not translate into a statistically significant budgetary impact in terms of the total cost per patient of hospitalisations or mean cost per patient per hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has shown that RSUs are an effective alternative to MRU HD for a wide spectrum of patients. They improve geographic access for more dispersed areas and reduce patients' travel time, and are generally more acceptable to patients on several criteria. There does not seem to be an adverse impact of care in the RSUs although comparative long-term prospective data are lacking. The evidence suggests that satellite development could be successfully expanded; not all MRUs have any satellites and many have only a few. No single RSU model can be recommended but key factors would include local geography, the likely catchment population and the type of patients to be treated. There is a need for more basic budgetary information linking activity and expenditure to be available and more transparent, to perform at least an insightful top-down costing of the two care settings. Other areas suggested for further research include: a comparison of adverse events occurring in MRUs and RSUs with longer duration and larger numbers to identify more severe events, along with the more research into the scope for preventing such events, and a study into the patients deemed ineligible for satellite care. International comparisons of satellite care would also be useful.