Effects of ethanol (E85) versus gasoline vehicles on cancer and mortality in the United States

Ethanol use in vehicle fuel is increasing worldwide, but the potential cancer risk and ozone-related health consequences of a large-scale conversion from gasoline to ethanol have not been examined. Here, a nested global-through-urban air pollution/weather forecast model is combined with high-resolution future emission inventories, population data, and health effects data to examine the effect of converting from gasoline to E85 on cancer, mortality, and hospitalization in the United States as a whole and Los Angeles in particular. Under the base-case emission scenario derived, which accounted for projected improvements in gasoline and E85 vehicle emission controls, it was found that E85 (85% ethanol fuel, 15% gasoline) may increase ozone-related mortality, hospitalization, and asthma by about 9% in Los Angeles and 4% in the United States as a whole relative to 100% gasoline. Ozone increases in Los Angeles and the northeast were partially offset by decreases in the southeast. E85 also increased peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the U.S. but was estimated to cause little change in cancer risk. Due to its ozone effects, future E85 may be a greater overall public health risk than gasoline. However, because of the uncertainty in future emission regulations, it can be concluded with confidence only that E85 is unlikely to improve air quality over future gasoline vehicles. Unburned ethanol emissions from E85 may result in a global-scale source of acetaldehyde larger than that of direct emissions.

Effects of Externally-Through-Internally-Mixed Soot Inclusions within Clouds and Precipitation on Global Climate

This paper examines the incremental global climate response of black carbon (BC), the main component of soot, due to absorption and scattering by BC inclusions within cloud and precipitation particles. Modeled soot is emitted as an externally mixed aerosol particle. It evolves to an internal mixture through condensation, hydration, dissolution, dissociation, crystallization, aqueous chemistry, coagulation, and cloud processing. Size-resolved cloud liquid and ice particles grow by condensation onto size-resolved soot and other particles. Cloud particles grow to precipitation by coagulation and the Bergeron process. Cloud and precipitation particles also undergo freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation, and coagulation with interstitial aerosol particles. Soot, which is tracked in cloud and precipitation particles of all sizes, is removed by rainout, washout, sedimentation, and dry deposition. Two methods of treating the optics of BC in size-resolved cloud liquid, ice and graupel are compared: the core-shell approximation (CSA) and the iterative dynamic effective medium approximation (DEMA). The 10-year global near-surface incremental temperature response due to fossil fuel (ff), biofuel (bf), and biomass burning (bb) BC within clouds with the DEMA was slightly stronger than that with the CSA, but both enhancements were <+0.05 K. The ff+bf portion may be approximately 60% of the total, suggesting that BC inclusions within clouds may enhance the near-surface temperature response of ff+bf soot due to all processes (estimated as approximately 0.27 K), by <10%, strengthening the possible climate impact of BC. BC cloud absorption was also found to increase water vapor, decrease precipitation, and decrease cloud fraction. The increase in water vapor at the expense of precipitation contributed to warming in addition to that of the cloud BC absorption itself. Aerosol-hydrometeor coagulation followed by hydrometeor evaporation may have caused almost twice the BC internal mixing as aerosol-aerosol coagulation.

Enhanced coagulation due to evaporation and its effect on nanoparticle evolution

A new explanation for the evolution of particles near a roadway is proposed. The explanation starts with data that suggest that small (<15 nm) liquid nanoparticles shed semivolatile organics (<C24) almost immediately upon emission. It is shown here that the shrinking of these particles enhances their rates of coagulation by over an order of magnitude, and this appears important in helping to explain particle evolution further downwind, as measured by two datasets, including one reported here, and as found with a three-dimensional numerical model used to simulate the data. Enhanced coagulation in isolated emission puffs may also affect evolution. Neither condensation, complete evaporation, coagulation alone, nor preferential small-particle dilution appears to explain the evolution.

Cleaning the air and improving health with hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles

Converting all U.S. onroad vehicles to hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) may improve air quality, health, and climate significantly, whether the hydrogen is produced by steam reforming of natural gas, wind electrolysis, or coal gasification. Most benefits would result from eliminating current vehicle exhaust. Wind and natural gas HFCVs offer the greatest potential health benefits and could save 3700 to 6400 U.S. lives annually. Wind HFCVs should benefit climate most. An all-HFCV fleet would hardly affect tropospheric water vapor concentrations. Conversion to coal HFCVs may improve health but would damage climate more than fossil/electric hybrids. The real cost of hydrogen from wind electrolysis may be below that of U.S. gasoline.

Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate

In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts.

Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols

Aerosols affect the Earth's temperature and climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere. A large positive component of this radiative forcing from aerosols is due to black carbon--soot--that is released from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass, and, to a lesser extent, natural fires, but the exact forcing is affected by how black carbon is mixed with other aerosol constituents. From studies of aerosol radiative forcing, it is known that black carbon can exist in one of several possible mixing states; distinct from other aerosol particles (externally mixed) or incorporated within them (internally mixed), or a black-carbon core could be surrounded by a well mixed shell. But so far it has been assumed that aerosols exist predominantly as an external mixture. Here I simulate the evolution of the chemical composition of aerosols, finding that the mixing state and direct forcing of the black-carbon component approach those of an internal mixture, largely due to coagulation and growth of aerosol particles. This finding implies a higher positive forcing from black carbon than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect from black carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The magnitude of the direct radiative forcing from black carbon itself exceeds that due to CH4, suggesting that black carbon may be the second most important component of global warming after CO2 in terms of direct forcing.