Determining post-operative morbidity and mortality following gynecological oncology surgery: protocol for a multicenter, international, prospective cohort study (Global Gynaecological Oncology Surgical Outcomes Collaborative-GO SOAR)

BACKGROUND

The Global Gynaecological Oncology Surgical Outcomes Collaborative (GO SOAR) aims to develop a network of gynecological oncology surgeons, surgical departments, and other interested parties that will have the long-term ability to collaborate on outcome studies. The protocol for the first collaborative study is presented here.

PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

To evaluate international variation in 30-day post-operative morbidity and mortality following gynecological oncology surgery between very high/high and medium/low human development index country settings.

HYPOTHESIS

There is no variation in post-operative morbidity and mortality following gynecological oncology surgery between very high/high and medium/low human development index country settings.

STUDY DESIGN

International, multicenter, prospective cohort study. Patient data will be collected over a consecutive 30-day period through gynecological oncology multidisciplinary teams/tumor boards and clinics across different human development index country groups. All data are collected on a customized, secure, password protected, central REDCap database.

MAJOR INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA

Inclusion criteria include women aged ≥18 years undergoing elective/emergency, curative/palliative surgery for primary/recurrent tubo-ovarian/peritoneal, endometrial, cervical, vulval, vaginal, gestational trophoblastic malignancies. Surgical modality may be open, minimal access (laparoscopic/robotic), or vaginal.

PRIMARY ENDPOINT

30-day post-operative morbidity and mortality defined as per Clavien-Dindo classification system.

SAMPLE SIZE

1100 (550/arm).

ESTIMATED DATES FOR COMPLETING ACCRUAL AND PRESENTING RESULTS

It is estimated recruitment will be completed by 2022 and results published by 2023.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registry: NCT04579861 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04579861).

Faecal immunochemical testing in bowel cancer screening: Estimating outcomes for different diagnostic policies

OBJECTIVES

The National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NHS BCSP) in England has replaced guaiac faecal occult blood testing by faecal immunochemical testing (FIT). There is interest in fully exploiting FIT measures to improve bowel cancer (CRC) screening strategies. In this paper, we estimate the relationship of the quantitative haemoglobin concentration provided by FIT in faecal samples with underlying pathology. From this we estimate thresholds required for given levels of sensitivity to CRC and high-risk adenomas (HRA).

METHODS

Data were collected from a pilot study of FIT in England in 2014, in which 27,238 participants completed a FIT. Those with a faecal haemoglobin concentration (f-Hb) of at least 20 µg/g were referred for further investigation, usually colonoscopy. Truncated regression models were used to explore the relationship between bowel pathology and FIT results. Regression results were applied to estimate sensitivity to different abnormalities for a number of thresholds.

RESULTS

Participants with CRC and HRA had significantly higher f-Hb, and this remained unchanged after adjusting for age and sex. While a threshold of 20 μg/g was estimated to capture 82.2% of CRC and 64.0% of HRA, this would refer 7.8% of participants for colonoscopy. The current programme threshold used in England of 120 μg/g was estimated to identify 47.8% of CRC and 25.0% of HRA.

CONCLUSIONS

Under the current diagnostic policy of dichotomising FIT results, a very low threshold would be required to achieve high sensitivity to CRC and HRA, which would place further strain on colonoscopy resources. The NHS BCSP in England might benefit from a diagnostic policy that makes greater use of the quantitative nature of FIT.

Implementation of Multigene Germline and Parallel Somatic Genetic Testing in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: SIGNPOST Study

We present findings of a cancer multidisciplinary-team (MDT) coordinated mainstreaming pathway of unselected 5-panel germline BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1 and parallel somatic BRCA1/BRCA2 testing in all women with epithelial-OC and highlight the discordance between germline and somatic testing strategies across two cancer centres. Patients were counselled and consented by a cancer MDT member. The uptake of parallel multi-gene germline and somatic testing was 97.7%. Counselling by clinical-nurse-specialist more frequently needed >1 consultation (53.6% (30/56)) compared to a medical (15.0% (21/137)) or surgical oncologist (15.3% (17/110)) (p < 0.001). The median age was 54 (IQR = 51-62) years in germline pathogenic-variant (PV) versus 61 (IQR = 51-71) in BRCA wild-type (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference in distribution of PVs by ethnicity, stage, surgery timing or resection status. A total of 15.5% germline and 7.8% somatic BRCA1/BRCA2 PVs were identified. A total of 2.3% patients had RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1 PVs. A total of 11% germline PVs were large-genomic-rearrangements and missed by somatic testing. A total of 20% germline PVs are missed by somatic first BRCA-testing approach and 55.6% germline PVs missed by family history ascertainment. The somatic testing failure rate is higher (23%) for patients undergoing diagnostic biopsies. Our findings favour a prospective parallel somatic and germline panel testing approach as a clinically efficient strategy to maximise variant identification. UK Genomics test-directory criteria should be expanded to include a panel of OC genes.

A time-resolved proteomic and prognostic map of COVID-19

COVID-19 is highly variable in its clinical presentation, ranging from asymptomatic infection to severe organ damage and death. We characterized the time-dependent progression of the disease in 139 COVID-19 inpatients by measuring 86 accredited diagnostic parameters, such as blood cell counts and enzyme activities, as well as untargeted plasma proteomes at 687 sampling points. We report an initial spike in a systemic inflammatory response, which is gradually alleviated and followed by a protein signature indicative of tissue repair, metabolic reconstitution, and immunomodulation. We identify prognostic marker signatures for devising risk-adapted treatment strategies and use machine learning to classify therapeutic needs. We show that the machine learning models based on the proteome are transferable to an independent cohort. Our study presents a map linking routinely used clinical diagnostic parameters to plasma proteomes and their dynamics in an infectious disease.

Incidence and risk factors for persistent symptoms in adults previously hospitalized for COVID-19

Background

The long‐term sequalae of COVID‐19 remain poorly characterized. We assessed persistent symptoms in previously hospitalized patients with COVID‐19 and assessed potential risk factors.

Methods

Data were collected from patients discharged from 4 hospitals in Moscow, Russia between 8 April and 10 July 2020. Participants were interviewed via telephone using an ISARIC Long‐term Follow‐up Study questionnaire.

Results

2,649 of 4755 (56%) discharged patients were successfully evaluated, at median 218 (IQR 200, 236) days post‐discharge. COVID‐19 diagnosis was clinical in 1291 and molecular in 1358. Most cases were mild, but 902 (34%) required supplemental oxygen and 68 (2.6%) needed ventilatory support. Median age was 56 years (IQR 46, 66) and 1,353 (51.1%) were women. Persistent symptoms were reported by 1247 (47.1%) participants, with fatigue (21.2%), shortness of breath (14.5%) and forgetfulness (9.1%) the most common symptoms and chronic fatigue (25%) and respiratory (17.2%) the most common symptom categories. Female sex was associated with any persistent symptom category OR 1.83 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.17) with association being strongest for dermatological (3.26, 2.36 to 4.57) symptoms. Asthma and chronic pulmonary disease were not associated with persistent symptoms overall, but asthma was associated with neurological (1.95, 1.25 to 2.98) and mood and behavioural changes (2.02, 1.24 to 3.18), and chronic pulmonary disease was associated with chronic fatigue (1.68, 1.21 to 2.32).

Conclusions

Almost half of adults admitted to hospital due to COVID‐19 reported persistent symptoms 6 to 8 months after discharge. Fatigue and respiratory symptoms were most common, and female sex was associated with persistent symptoms.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on training and mental well-being of surgical gynecological oncology trainees

INTRODUCTION

The SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic has caused a crisis disrupting health systems worldwide. While efforts are being made to determine the extent of the disruption, the impact on gynecological oncology trainees/training has not been explored. We conducted an international survey of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on clinical practice, medical education, and mental well-being of surgical gynecological oncology trainees.

METHODS

In our cross-sectional study, a customized web-based survey was circulated to surgical gynecological oncology trainees from national/international organizations from May to November 2020. Validated questionnaires assessed mental well-being. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test and Fisher's exact test were used to analyse differences in means and proportions. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the effect of variables on psychological/mental well-being outcomes. Outcomes included clinical practice, medical education, anxiety and depression, distress, and mental well-being.

RESULTS

A total of 127 trainees from 34 countries responded. Of these, 52% (66/127) were from countries with national training programs (UK/USA/Netherlands/Canada/Australia) and 48% (61/127) from countries with no national training programs. Altogether, 28% (35/125) had suspected/confirmed COVID-19, 28% (35/125) experienced a fall in household income, 20% (18/90) were self-isolated from households, 45% (57/126) had to re-use personal protective equipment, and 22% (28/126) purchased their own. In total, 32.3% (41/127) of trainees (16.6% (11/66) from countries with a national training program vs 49.1% (30/61) from countries with no national training program, p=0.02) perceived they would require additional time to complete their training fellowship. The additional training time anticipated did not differ between trainees from countries with or without national training programs (p=0.11) or trainees at the beginning or end of their fellowship (p=0.12). Surgical exposure was reduced for 50% of trainees. Departmental teaching continued throughout the pandemic for 69% (87/126) of trainees, although at reduced frequency for 16.1% (14/87), and virtually for 88.5% (77/87). Trainees reporting adequate pastoral support (defined as allocation of a dedicated mentor/access to occupational health support services) had better mental well-being with lower levels of anxiety/depression (p=0.02) and distress (p<0.001). Trainees from countries with a national training program experienced higher levels of distress (p=0.01). Mean (SD) pre-pandemic mental well-being scores were significantly higher than post-pandemic scores (8.3 (1.6) vs 7 (1.8); p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 has negatively impacted the surgical training, household income, and psychological/mental well-being of surgical gynecological oncology trainees. The overall clinical impact was worse for trainees in countries with no national training program than for those in countries with a national training program, although national training program trainees reported greater distress. COVID-19 sickness increased anxiety/depression. The recovery phase must focus on improving mental well-being and addressing lost training opportunities.

Stop COVID Cohort: An Observational Study of 3480 Patients Admitted to the Sechenov University Hospital Network in Moscow City for Suspected Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Infection

Background

The epidemiology, clinical course, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in the Russian population are unknown. Information on the differences between laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed COVID-19 in real-life settings is lacking.

Methods

We extracted data from the medical records of adult patients who were consecutively admitted for suspected COVID-19 infection in Moscow, between April 8 and May 28, 2020.

Results

Of the 4261 patients hospitalised for suspected COVID-19, outcomes were available for 3480 patients (median age 56 years (interquartile range 45-66). The commonest comorbidities were hypertension, obesity, chronic cardiac disease and diabetes. Half of the patients (n=1728) had a positive RT-PCR while 1748 were negative on RT-PCR but had clinical symptoms and characteristic CT signs suggestive of COVID-19 infection.No significant differences in frequency of symptoms, laboratory test results and risk factors for in-hospital mortality were found between those exclusively clinically diagnosed or with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR.In a multivariable logistic regression model the following were associated with in-hospital mortality; older age (per 1 year increase) odds ratio [OR] 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 - 1.06); male sex (OR 1.71, 1.24 - 2.37); chronic kidney disease (OR 2.99, 1.89 – 4.64); diabetes (OR 2.1, 1.46 - 2.99); chronic cardiac disease (OR 1.78, 1.24 - 2.57) and dementia (OR 2.73, 1.34 – 5.47).

Conclusions

Age, male sex, and chronic comorbidities were risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The combination of clinical features were sufficient to diagnoseCOVID-19 infection indicating that laboratory testing is not critical in real-life clinical practice.

Risk factors for long covid in previously hospitalised children using the ISARIC Global follow-up protocol: A prospective cohort study

Background

The long-term sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children remain poorly characterised. This study aimed to assess long-term outcomes in children previously hospitalised with COVID-19 and associated risk factors.

Methods

This is a prospective cohort study of children (≤18 years old) admitted to hospital with confirmed COVID-19. Children admitted between 2 April 2020 and 26 August 2020 were included. Telephone interviews used the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 Health and Wellbeing Follow-up Survey for Children. Persistent symptoms (>5 months) were further categorised by system(s) involved.

Results

518 out of 853 (61%) eligible children were available for the follow-up assessment and included in the study. Median (interquartile range (IQR)) age was 10.4 (3–15.2) years and 270 (52.1%) were girls. Median (IQR) follow-up since hospital discharge was 256 (223–271) days. At the time of the follow-up interview 126 (24.3%) participants reported persistent symptoms, among which fatigue (53, 10.7%), sleep disturbance (36, 6.9%) and sensory problems (29, 5.6%) were the most common. Multiple symptoms were experienced by 44 (8.4%) participants. Risk factors for persistent symptoms were: older age “6–11 years” (OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.37–5.75) and “12–18 years” (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.41–5.4), and a history of allergic diseases (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.04–2.67).

Conclusions

A quarter of children experienced persistent symptoms months after hospitalisation with acute COVID-19 infection, with almost one in 10 experiencing multisystem involvement. Older age and allergic diseases were associated with higher risk of persistent symptoms at follow-up.

A quarter of children experienced persistent symptoms months after COVID-19 infection, with almost one in 10 experiencing multisystem involvement. Older age and allergic diseases were associated with higher risk of persistent symptoms at follow-up.https://bit.ly/3vqeEmZ

Impact of changing from a guaiac faecal occult blood test to a faecal immunochemical test in a national screening programme: Results from a pilot study within the national bowel cancer screening programme in England

OBJECTIVE

Testing for occult blood in faeces is widely used in bowel cancer screening around the world. In many programmes, the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) is replacing the traditional guiaic faecal occult blood test (gFOBT). There have been a number of reports on the clinical impact of making this change; yet, no-one has considered the pre-analytical and analytical impact of moving from a gFOBT to a FIT bowel cancer screening programme.

METHODS

We interrogated data obtained in a FIT pilot carried out in England in 2014 to assess the timeliness of specimen collection device return time and analysis for gFOBT and FIT, the impact of time to analysis on faecal haemoglobin (f-Hb) concentration, and any differences observed between analyses carried out at two different testing laboratories.

RESULTS

FIT kits were returned on average 5.6 days sooner than gFOBT. The time to analysis for FIT leads to an overall rise in f-Hb concentration within the manufacturer's stated 14-day stability period.

CONCLUSION

Both these factors are important considerations for laboratories when considering setting up a bowel cancer screening programme, especially if transitioning from gFOBT to FIT. Our data also support previous evidence of males having a higher f-Hb than females and demonstrate that after adjusting for sex, age and screening hub, neither index of multiple deprivation nor screening episode significantly affected f-Hb.

Media Influence on Anxiety, Health Utility, and Health Beliefs Early in the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic-a Survey Study

BACKGROUND

The psychological effects from the COVID-19 pandemic and response are poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To understand the effects of the pandemic and response on anxiety and health utility in a nationally representative sample of US adults.

DESIGN

A de-identified, cross-sectional survey was administered at the end of April 2020. Probability weights were assigned using estimates from the 2018 American Community Survey and Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Estimates.

PARTICIPANTS

US adults 18-85 years of age with landline, texting-enabled cellphone, or internet access.

INTERVENTION

Seven split-half survey blocks of 30 questions, assessing demographics, COVID-19-related health attitudes, and standardized measures of generalized self-efficacy, anxiety, depression, personality, and generic health utility.

MAIN MEASURES

State/Trait anxiety scores, EQ-5D-3L Visual Analog Scale (VAS) score, and demographic predictors of these scores.

KEY RESULTS

Among 4855 respondents, 56.7% checked COVID-19-related news several times daily, and 84.4% at least once daily. Only 65.7% desired SARS-CoV-2 vaccination for themselves, and 70.1% for their child. Mean state anxiety (S-anxiety) score was significantly higher than mean trait anxiety (T-anxiety) score (44.9, 95%CI 43.5-46.3 vs. 41.6, 95%CI 38.7-44.5; p = 0.03), with both scores significantly higher than previously published norms. In an adjusted regression model, less frequent news viewing was associated with significantly lower S-anxiety score. Mean EQ-5D-3L VAS score for the population was significantly lower vs. established US normative data (71.4 CI 67.4-75.5, std. error 2 vs. societal mean 80, std. error 0.1; p < 0.001). EQ-5D-3L VAS score was bimodal (highest with hourly and no viewing) and significantly reduced with less media viewership in an adjusted model.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a nationally representative sample, there were higher S-anxiety and lower EQ-5D-3L VAS scores compared to non-pandemic normative data, indicative of a potential detrimental acute effect of the pandemic. More frequent daily media viewership was significantly associated with higher S-anxiety but also predictive of higher health utility, as measured by EQ-5D-3L VAS scores.

Non-Histone Protein Methylation: Biological Significance and Bioengineering Potential

Protein methylation is a key post-translational modification whose effects on gene expression have been intensively studied over the last two decades. Recently, renewed interest in non-histone protein methylation has gained momentum for its role in regulating important cellular processes and the activity of many proteins, including transcription factors, enzymes, and structural complexes. The extensive and dynamic role that protein methylation plays within the cell also highlights its potential for bioengineering applications. Indeed, while synthetic histone protein methylation has been extensively used to engineer gene expression, engineering of non-histone protein methylation has not been fully explored yet. Here, we report the latest findings, highlighting how non-histone protein methylation is fundamental for certain cellular functions and is implicated in disease, and review recent efforts in the engineering of protein methylation.

A combination of urinary biomarker panel and PancRISK score for earlier detection of pancreatic cancer: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the deadliest cancers, with around 9% of patients surviving >5 years. Asymptomatic in its initial stages, PDAC is mostly diagnosed late, when already a locally advanced or metastatic disease, as there are no useful biomarkers for detection in its early stages, when surgery can be curative. We have previously described a promising biomarker panel (LYVE1, REG1A, and TFF1) for earlier detection of PDAC in urine. Here, we aimed to establish the accuracy of an improved panel, including REG1B instead of REG1A, and an algorithm for data interpretation, the PancRISK score, in additional retrospectively collected urine specimens. We also assessed the complementarity of this panel with CA19-9 and explored the daily variation and stability of the biomarkers and their performance in common urinary tract cancers.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Clinical specimens were obtained from multiple centres: Barts Pancreas Tissue Bank, University College London, University of Liverpool, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Cambridge University Hospital, and University of Belgrade. The biomarker panel was assayed on 590 urine specimens: 183 control samples, 208 benign hepatobiliary disease samples (of which 119 were chronic pancreatitis), and 199 PDAC samples (102 stage I-II and 97 stage III-IV); 50.7% were from female individuals. PDAC samples were collected from patients before treatment. The samples were assayed using commercially available ELISAs. Statistical analyses were performed using non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis tests adjusted for multiple comparisons, and multiple logistic regression. Training and validation datasets for controls and PDAC samples were obtained after random division of the whole available dataset in a 1:1 ratio. The substitution of REG1A with REG1B enhanced the performance of the panel to detect resectable PDAC. In a comparison of controls and PDAC stage I-II samples, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) increased from 0.900 (95% CI 0.843-0.957) and 0.926 (95% CI 0.843-1.000) in the training (50% of the dataset) and validation sets, respectively, to 0.936 in both the training (95% CI 0.903-0.969) and the validation (95% CI 0.888-0.984) datasets for the new panel including REG1B. This improved panel showed both sensitivity (SN) and specificity (SP) to be >85%. Plasma CA19-9 enhanced the performance of this panel in discriminating PDAC I-II patients from controls, with AUC = 0.992 (95% CI 0.983-1.000), SN = 0.963 (95% CI 0.913-1.000), and SP = 0.967 (95% CI 0.924-1.000). We demonstrate that the biomarkers do not show significant daily variation, and that they are stable for up to 5 days at room temperature. The main limitation of our study is the low number of stage I-IIA PDAC samples (n = 27) and lack of samples from individuals with hereditary predisposition to PDAC, for which specimens collected from control individuals were used as a proxy.

CONCLUSIONS

We have successfully validated our urinary biomarker panel, which was improved by substituting REG1A with REG1B. At a pre-selected cutoff of >80% SN and SP for the affiliated PancRISK score, we demonstrate a clinically applicable risk stratification tool with a binary output for risk of developing PDAC ('elevated' or 'normal'). PancRISK provides a step towards precision surveillance for PDAC patients, which we will test in a prospective clinical study, UroPanc.

Annual mammographic screening to reduce breast cancer mortality in women from age 40 years: long-term follow-up of the UK Age RCT

BACKGROUND

There remains disagreement on the long-term effect of mammographic screening in women aged 40-49 years.

OBJECTIVES

The long-term follow-up of a randomised controlled trial that offered annual mammography to women aged 40-49 years. The estimation of the effect of these mammograms on breast cancer and other-cause mortality, and the effect on incidence, with implications for overdiagnosis.

DESIGN

An individually randomised controlled trial comparing offering annual mammography with offering usual care in those aged 40-48 years, and thus evaluating the effect of annual screening entirely taking place before the age of 50 years. There was follow-up for an average of 23 years for breast cancer incidence, breast cancer death and death from other causes. We analysed the mortality and incidence data by Poisson regression and estimated overdiagnosis formally using Markov process models.

SETTING

Twenty-three screening units in England, Wales and Scotland within the NHS Breast Screening Programme.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 39-41 years were recruited between 1990 and 1997. After exclusions, a total of 53,883 women were randomised to undergo screening (the intervention group) and 106,953 women were randomised to have usual care (the control group).

INTERVENTIONS

The intervention group was invited to an annual breast screen with film mammography, two view at first screen and single view thereafter, up to and including the calendar year of their 48th birthday. The control group received no intervention. Both groups were invited to the National Programme from the age of 50 years, when screening is offered to all women in the UK.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were mortality from breast cancers diagnosed during the intervention phase of the trial (i.e. before the first National Programme screen at 50 years), mortality from all breast cancers diagnosed after randomisation, all-cause mortality, mortality from causes other than breast cancer, and the incidence of breast cancer.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant 25% reduction in mortality from breast cancers diagnosed during the intervention phase at 10 years' follow-up (relative rate 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.97; p = 0.03). No reduction was observed thereafter (relative rate 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 1.22). Overall, there was a statistically non-significant 12% reduction (relative rate 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 1.03; p = 0.1). The absolute benefit remained approximately constant over time, at one death prevented per 1000 women screened. There was no effect of intervention on other-cause mortality (relative rate 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.07; p = 0.4). The intervention group had a higher incidence of breast cancer than the control group during the intervention phase of the trial, but incidence equalised immediately on the first National Programme screen at the age of 50-52 years.

LIMITATIONS

There was 31% average non-compliance with screening and three centres had to cease screening for resource and capacity reasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual mammographic screening at the age of 40-49 years resulted in a relative reduction in mortality, which was attenuated after 10 years. It is likely that digital mammography with two views at all screens, as practised now, could improve this further. There was no evidence of overdiagnosis in addition to that which already results from the National Programme carried out at later ages.

FUTURE WORK

There is a need for research on the effects of modern mammographic protocols and additional imaging in this age group.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24647151.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 55. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Other funding in the past has been received from the Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, the Department of Health and Social Care, the US National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society.

Excessive Media Consumption About COVID-19 is Associated With Increased State Anxiety: Outcomes of a Large Online Survey in Russia

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has potentially had a negative impact on the mental health and well-being of individuals and families. Anxiety levels and risk factors within particular populations are poorly described.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate confidence, understanding, trust, concerns, and levels of anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic in the general population and assess risk factors for increased anxiety.

METHODS

We launched a cross-sectional online survey of a large Russian population between April 6 and 15, 2020, using multiple social media platforms. A set of questions targeted confidence, understanding, trust, and concerns in respondents. The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to measure anxiety. Multiple linear regressions were used to model predictors of COVID-19-related anxiety.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 23,756 out of 53,966 (44.0% response rate) unique visitors; of which, 21,364 were residing in 62 areas of Russia. State Anxiety Scale (S-Anxiety) scores were higher than Trait Anxiety Scale scores across all regions of Russia (median S-Anxiety score 52, IQR 44-60), exceeding published norms. Time spent following news on COVID-19 was strongly associated with an increased S-Anxiety adjusted for baseline anxiety level. One to two hours spent reading COVID-19 news was associated with a 5.46 (95% CI 5.03-5.90) point difference, 2-3 hours with a 7.06 (95% CI 6.37-7.74) point difference, and more than three hours with an 8.65 (95% CI 7.82-9.47) point difference, all compared to less than 30 minutes per day. Job loss during the pandemic was another important factor associated with higher S-Anxiety scores (3.95, 95% CI 3.31-4.58). Despite survey respondents reporting high confidence in information regarding COVID-19 as well as an understanding of health care guidance, they reported low overall trust in state and local authorities, and perception of country readiness.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Russian respondents from multiple social media platforms, there was evidence of higher levels of state anxiety associated with recent job loss and increased news consumption, as well as lower than expected trust in government agencies. These findings can help inform the development of key public health messages to help reduce anxiety and raise perceived trust in governmental response to this current national emergency. Using a similar methodology, comparative surveys are ongoing in other national populations.

Effect of mammographic screening from age 40 years on breast cancer mortality (UK Age trial): final results of a randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The appropriate age range for breast cancer screening remains a matter of debate. We aimed to estimate the effect of mammographic screening at ages 40-48 years on breast cancer mortality.

METHODS

We did a randomised, controlled trial involving 23 breast screening units across Great Britain. We randomly assigned women aged 39-41 years, using individual randomisation, stratified by general practice, in a 1:2 ratio, to yearly mammographic screening from the year of inclusion in the trial up to and including the calendar year that they reached age 48 years (intervention group), or to standard care of no screening until the invitation to their first National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) screen at approximately age 50 years (control group). Women in the intervention group were recruited by postal invitation. Women in the control group were unaware of the study. The primary endpoint was mortality from breast cancers (with breast cancer coded as the underlying cause of death) diagnosed during the intervention period, before the participant's first NHSBSP screen. To study the timing of the mortality effect, we analysed the results in different follow-up periods. Women were included in the primary comparison regardless of compliance with randomisation status (intention-to-treat analysis). This Article reports on long-term follow-up analysis. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN24647151.

FINDINGS

160 921 women were recruited between Oct 14, 1990, and Sept 24, 1997. 53 883 women (33·5%) were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 106 953 (66·5%) to the control group. Between randomisation and Feb 28, 2017, women were followed up for a median of 22·8 years (IQR 21·8-24·0). We observed a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality at 10 years of follow-up, with 83 breast cancer deaths in the intervention group versus 219 in the control group (relative rate [RR] 0·75 [95% CI 0·58-0·97]; p=0·029). No significant reduction was observed thereafter, with 126 deaths versus 255 deaths occurring after more than 10 years of follow-up (RR 0·98 [0·79-1·22]; p=0·86).

INTERPRETATION

Yearly mammography before age 50 years, commencing at age 40 or 41 years, was associated with a relative reduction in breast cancer mortality, which was attenuated after 10 years, although the absolute reduction remained constant. Reducing the lower age limit for screening from 50 to 40 years could potentially reduce breast cancer mortality.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Attitudes towards risk-reducing early salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy for ovarian cancer prevention: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine risk-reducing early salpingectomy and delayed oophorectomy (RRESDO) acceptability and effect of surgical prevention on menopausal sequelae/satisfaction/regret in women at increased ovarian cancer (OC) risk.

DESIGN

Multicentre, cohort, questionnaire study (IRSCTN:12310993).

SETTING

United Kingdom (UK).

POPULATION

UK women without OC ≥18 years, at increased OC risk, with/without previous RRSO, ascertained through specialist familial cancer/genetic clinics and BRCA support groups.

METHODS

Participants completed a 39-item questionnaire. Baseline characteristics were described using descriptive statistics. Logistic/linear regression models analysed the impact of variables on RRESDO acceptability and health outcomes.

MAIN OUTCOMES

RRESDO acceptability, menopausal sequelae, satisfaction/regret.

RESULTS

In all, 346 of 683 participants underwent risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO). Of premenopausal women who had not undergone RRSO, 69.1% (181/262) found it acceptable to participate in a research study offering RRESDO. Premenopausal women concerned about sexual dysfunction were more likely to find RRESDO acceptable (odds ratio [OR] = 2.9, 95% CI 1.2-7.7, P = 0.025). Women experiencing sexual dysfunction after premenopausal RRSO were more likely to find RRESDO acceptable in retrospect (OR = 5.3, 95% CI 1.2-27.5, P < 0.031). In all, 88.8% (143/161) premenopausal and 95.2% (80/84) postmenopausal women who underwent RRSO, respectively, were satisfied with their decision, whereas 9.4% (15/160) premenopausal and 1.2% (1/81) postmenopausal women who underwent RRSO regretted their decision. HRT uptake in premenopausal individuals without breast cancer (BC) was 74.1% (80/108). HRT use did not significantly affect satisfaction/regret levels but did reduce symptoms of vaginal dryness (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.9, P = 0.025).

CONCLUSION

Data show high RRESDO acceptability, particularly in women concerned about sexual dysfunction. Although RRSO satisfaction remains high, regret rates are much higher for premenopausal women than for postmenopausal women. HRT use following premenopausal RRSO does not increase satisfaction but does reduce vaginal dryness.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

RRESDO has high acceptability among premenopausal women at increased ovarian cancer risk, particularly those concerned about sexual dysfunction.

Multi-Marker Longitudinal Algorithms Incorporating HE4 and CA125 in Ovarian Cancer Screening of Postmenopausal Women

Longitudinal CA125 algorithms are the current basis of ovarian cancer screening. We report on longitudinal algorithms incorporating multiple markers. In the multimodal arm of United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), 50,640 postmenopausal women underwent annual screening using a serum CA125 longitudinal algorithm. Women (cases) with invasive tubo-ovarian cancer (WHO 2014) following outcome review with stored annual serum samples donated in the 5 years preceding diagnosis were matched 1:1 to controls (no invasive tubo-ovarian cancer) in terms of the number of annual samples and age at randomisation. Blinded samples were assayed for serum human epididymis protein 4 (HE4), CA72-4 and anti-TP53 autoantibodies. Multimarker method of mean trends (MMT) longitudinal algorithms were developed using the assay results and trial CA125 values on the training set and evaluated in the blinded validation set. The study set comprised of 1363 (2-5 per woman) serial samples from 179 cases and 181 controls. In the validation set, area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity of longitudinal CA125-MMT algorithm were 0.911 (0.871-0.952) and 90.5% (82.5-98.6%). None of the longitudinal multi-marker algorithms (CA125-HE4, CA125-HE4-CA72-4, CA125-HE4-CA72-4-anti-TP53) performed better or improved on lead-time. Our population study suggests that longitudinal HE4, CA72-4, anti-TP53 autoantibodies adds little value to longitudinal serum CA125 as a first-line test in ovarian cancer screening of postmenopausal women.

Radiological audit of interval breast cancers: Estimation of tumour growth rates

INTRODUCTION

This multicentre, retrospective study aimed to establish correlation between estimated tumour volume doubling times (TVDT) from a series of interval breast cancers with their clinicopathological features. The potential impact of delayed diagnosis on prognosis was also explored.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Interval cancers, where screening mammograms demonstrated changes that were retrospectively classified as either uncertain or suspicious, were reviewed from five screening units within the UK NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP). Data collected included the time interval between screening mammogram and cancer diagnosis, the size of the initial mammographic abnormality and of the subsequent cancer, demographics, mammographic density and tumour biology. We estimated volume doubling times and the estimated change in size and node status, which would have followed if these cancers had been detected at the previous screen.

RESULTS

306 interval cancers meeting the inclusion criteria were identified. Average time from screening to diagnosis was 644 days (SD 276 days). 19% were diagnosed in the first twelve months, 42% in the subsequent twelve months and 39% thereafter. Overall average estimated TVDT was 167 days (95% CI 151-186). Significant differences were noted with age (p = 0.01), grade (p < 0.001) and ER status (p < 0.001) with women under 60, grade 3 cancers and ER negative cancers having shorter TVDTs. HER2 positive tumours had shorter doubling times than HER2 negative, but this difference was not statistically significant. It was estimated that diagnosing these cancers at the previous screen would have increased ten-year survival from 82% to 86%.

CONCLUSION

High grade, ER negativity and younger age were associated with shorter durations of TVDT. The role of HER2 status on interval cancer growth rate requires further assessment. It is likely that the delayed diagnosis of interval cancers confers a 4% reduction in ten-year survival.

The Human Body as a Super Network: Digital Methods to Analyze the Propagation of Aging

Biological aging is a complex process involving multiple biological processes. These can be understood theoretically though considering them as individual networks-e.g., epigenetic networks, cell-cell networks (such as astroglial networks), and population genetics. Mathematical modeling allows the combination of such networks so that they may be studied in unison, to better understand how the so-called "seven pillars of aging" combine and to generate hypothesis for treating aging as a condition at relatively early biological ages. In this review, we consider how recent progression in mathematical modeling can be utilized to investigate aging, particularly in, but not exclusive to, the context of degenerative neuronal disease. We also consider how the latest techniques for generating biomarker models for disease prediction, such as longitudinal analysis and parenclitic analysis can be applied to as both biomarker platforms for aging, as well as to better understand the inescapable condition. This review is written by a highly diverse and multi-disciplinary team of scientists from across the globe and calls for greater collaboration between diverse fields of research.

Population Study of Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction for Targeted Screening and Prevention

Unselected population-based personalised ovarian cancer (OC) risk assessment combining genetic/epidemiology/hormonal data has not previously been undertaken. We aimed to perform a feasibility study of OC risk stratification of general population women using a personalised OC risk tool followed by risk management. Volunteers were recruited through London primary care networks.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

women ≥18 years.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

prior ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer, previous genetic testing for OC genes. Participants accessed an online/web-based decision aid along with optional telephone helpline use. Consenting individuals completed risk assessment and underwent genetic testing (BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1, OC susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms). A validated OC risk prediction algorithm provided a personalised OC risk estimate using genetic/lifestyle/hormonal OC risk factors. Population genetic testing (PGT)/OC risk stratification uptake/acceptability, satisfaction, decision aid/telephone helpline use, psychological health and quality of life were assessed using validated/customised questionnaires over six months. Linear-mixed models/contrast tests analysed impact on study outcomes.

MAIN OUTCOMES

feasibility/acceptability, uptake, decision aid/telephone helpline use, satisfaction/regret, and impact on psychological health/quality of life. In total, 123 volunteers (mean age = 48.5 (SD = 15.4) years) used the decision aid, 105 (85%) consented. None fulfilled NHS genetic testing clinical criteria. OC risk stratification revealed 1/103 at ≥10% (high), 0/103 at ≥5%-<10% (intermediate), and 100/103 at <5% (low) lifetime OC risk. Decision aid satisfaction was 92.2%. The telephone helpline use rate was 13% and the questionnaire response rate at six months was 75%. Contrast tests indicated that overall depression (p = 0.30), anxiety (p = 0.10), quality-of-life (p = 0.99), and distress (p = 0.25) levels did not jointly change, while OC worry (p = 0.021) and general cancer risk perception (p = 0.015) decreased over six months. In total, 85.5-98.7% were satisfied with their decision. Findings suggest population-based personalised OC risk stratification is feasible and acceptable, has high satisfaction, reduces cancer worry/risk perception, and does not negatively impact psychological health/quality of life.

Expanding TREC and KREC Utility in Primary Immunodeficiency Diseases Diagnosis

Primary immunodeficiency diseases (PID) area heterogeneous group of disorders caused by genetic defects of the immune system, which manifest clinically as recurrent infections, autoimmune diseases or malignancies. Early detection of PID remains a challenge, particularly in older children with milder and less specific symptoms. This study aimed to assess TREC and KREC diagnostic ability in PID. Data from children assessed by clinical immunologists at Speransky Children's Hospital, Moscow, Russia with suspected immunodeficiencies were analyzed between May 2013 and August 2016. Peripheral blood samples were sent for TREC/KREC, flow cytometry (CD3, CD4, CD8 and CD19), IgA and IgG analysis. A total of 434 children [189 healthy, 97 with group I and II PID (combined T and B cell immunodeficiencies & well-defined syndromes with immunodeficiency) and 148 group III PID (predominantly antibody deficiencies)] were included. Area under the curve (AUC) for TREC in PID groups I and II diagnosis reached 0.82 (CI = 0.75-0.90), with best model providing sensitivity of 65% and specificity of 92%. Neither TREC, nor KREC had added value in PID group III diagnosis. In this study, the predictive value of TREC and KREC in PID diagnosis was examined. We found that the TREC had some diagnostic utility for groups I and II PID. Possibly, addition of TREC measurements to existing clinical diagnostic algorithms may improve their predictive value. Further investigations on a larger cohort are needed to evaluate TREC/KREC abilities to be used as diagnostic tools on a wider scale.

Improved early detection of ovarian cancer using longitudinal multimarker models

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer has a poor survival rate due to late diagnosis and improved methods are needed for its early detection. Our primary objective was to identify and incorporate additional biomarkers into longitudinal models to improve on the performance of CA125 as a first-line screening test for ovarian cancer.

METHODS

This case-control study nested within UKCTOCS used 490 serial serum samples from 49 women later diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 31 control women who were cancer-free. Proteomics-based biomarker discovery was carried out using pooled samples and selected candidates, including those from the literature, assayed in all serial samples. Multimarker longitudinal models were derived and tested against CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer.

RESULTS

The best performing models, incorporating CA125, HE4, CHI3L1, PEBP4 and/or AGR2, provided 85.7% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity up to 1 year before diagnosis, significantly improving on CA125 alone. For Type II cases (mostly high-grade serous), models achieved 95.5% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity. Predictive values were elevated earlier than CA125, showing the potential of models to improve lead time.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified candidate biomarkers and tested longitudinal multimarker models that significantly improve on CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. These models now warrant independent validation.