Central Europe temperature constrained by speleothem fluid inclusion water isotopes over the past 14,000 years

The reasons for the early Holocene temperature discrepancy between northern hemispheric model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions-known as the Holocene temperature conundrum-remain unclear. Using hydrogen isotopes of fluid inclusion water extracted from stalagmites from the Milandre Cave in Switzerland, we established a mid-latitude European mean annual temperature reconstruction for the past 14,000 years. Our Milandre Cave fluid inclusion temperature record (MC-FIT) resembles Greenland and Mediterranean sea surface temperature trends but differs from recent reconstructions obtained from biogenic proxies and climate models. The water isotopes are further synchronized with tropical precipitation records, stressing the Northern Hemisphere signature. Our results support the existence of a European Holocene Thermal Maximum and data-model temperature discrepancies. Moreover, data-data comparison reveals a significant latitudinal temperature gradient within Europe. Last, the MC-FIT record suggests that seasonal biases in the proxies are not the primary cause of the Holocene temperature conundrum.

Millennial and orbital scale variability of the South American Monsoon during the penultimate glacial period

The presence of large, rapid climate oscillations is the most prominent feature of the Earth’s last glacial period. These oscillations are observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere and into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Whether similar oscillations are typical of prior glacial periods, however, has not been well established. Here, we present results of a study of the South American Summer Monsoon system that covers nearly the entire penultimate glacial period, from 195 to 135 ky BP. We use a well-dated, high-resolution (~50 y) time series of oxygen isotopes to show that the precession of the earth’s orbit is the primary control on monsoon intensity. After removing the precession signal we observe millennial oscillations that are very similar in amplitude and structure to the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles of the last interglacial and that match well a synthetic reconstruction of millennial variability. Time series analyses shows that the most prominent of the observed cycles occur at considerably longer frequency (~3500 y) that the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles from Marine Isotope Stages 2–4.

Moisture availability in the southwest United States over the last three glacial-interglacial cycles

The projected long-term drying of the southwest (SW) United States in response to climate warming raises a sobering alarm for this already water-limited region, yet the climatic controls on moisture availability over longer time scales remain a topic of debate. Here, we present a 350,000-year record of past water table fluctuations in Devils Hole 2 cave that are driven by variations in recharge amount to the local groundwater flow system. Because of the unprecedented length and precision of our record, we can observe variations in regional moisture availability over the last three glacial-interglacial cycles at a millennial-scale resolution. The timing of past water table rises and falls (>9 m in amplitude) closely coincides with the expansion and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice volume, which in turn influences the position and intensity of westerly winter storms on orbital time scales. Superimposed on this long-term trend are millennial-scale highstands recorded during the last glaciation that coincide with North Atlantic Heinrich events. Earlier millennial-scale highstands provide the first evidence of multiple short-lived wet periods in the SW United States linked to coeval cooling intervals in the North Atlantic during marine isotope stages 6 and 8. The Devils Hole 2 water table record is currently the longest independently dated paleomoisture record in the SW United States and thus provides a critical testbed to examine the controls on regional moisture availability over larger time scales.

The Indian monsoon variability and civilization changes in the Indian subcontinent

The vast Indo-Gangetic Plain in South Asia has been home to some of the world's oldest civilizations, whose fortunes ebbed and flowed with time-plausibly driven in part by shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We use speleothem oxygen isotope records from North India to reconstruct the monsoon's variability on socially relevant time scales, allowing us to examine the history of civilization changes in the context of varying hydroclimatic conditions over the past 5700 years. Our data suggest that significant shifts in monsoon rainfall have occurred in concert with changes in the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the discharges of the Himalayan rivers. The close temporal relationship between these large-scale hydroclimatic changes and the intervals marking the significant sociopolitical developments of the Indus Valley and Vedic civilizations suggests a plausible role of climate change in shaping the important chapters of the history of human civilization in the Indian subcontinent.

Hydroclimate changes across the Amazon lowlands over the past 45,000 years

Reconstructing the history of tropical hydroclimates has been difficult, particularly for the Amazon basin-one of Earth's major centres of deep atmospheric convection. For example, whether the Amazon basin was substantially drier or remained wet during glacial times has been controversial, largely because most study sites have been located on the periphery of the basin, and because interpretations can be complicated by sediment preservation, uncertainties in chronology, and topographical setting. Here we show that rainfall in the basin responds closely to changes in glacial boundary conditions in terms of temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Our results are based on a decadally resolved, uranium/thorium-dated, oxygen isotopic record for much of the past 45,000 years, obtained using speleothems from Paraíso Cave in eastern Amazonia; we interpret the record as being broadly related to precipitation. Relative to modern levels, precipitation in the region was about 58% during the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) and 142% during the mid-Holocene epoch (about 6,000 years ago). We find that, as compared with cave records from the western edge of the lowlands, the Amazon was widely drier during the last glacial period, with much less recycling of water and probably reduced plant transpiration, although the rainforest persisted throughout this time.

A high-resolution history of the South American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

The exact extent, by which the hydrologic cycle in the Neotropics was affected by external forcing during the last deglaciation, remains poorly understood. Here we present a new paleo-rainfall reconstruction based on high-resolution speleothem δ¹⁸O records from the core region of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), documenting the changing hydrological conditions over tropical South America (SA), in particular during abrupt millennial-scale events. This new record provides the best-resolved and most accurately constrained geochronology of any proxy from South America for this time period, spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene.

How well can we quantify dust deposition to the ocean?

Deposition of continental mineral aerosols (dust) in the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, between the coast of Africa and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, was estimated using several strategies based on the measurement of aerosols, trace metals dissolved in seawater, particulate material filtered from the water column, particles collected by sediment traps and sediments. Most of the data used in this synthesis involve samples collected during US GEOTRACES expeditions in 2010 and 2011, although some results from the literature are also used. Dust deposition generated by a global model serves as a reference against which the results from each observational strategy are compared. Observation-based dust fluxes disagree with one another by as much as two orders of magnitude, although most of the methods produce results that are consistent with the reference model to within a factor of 5. The large range of estimates indicates that further work is needed to reduce uncertainties associated with each method before it can be applied routinely to map dust deposition to the ocean. Calculated dust deposition using observational strategies thought to have the smallest uncertainties is lower than the reference model by a factor of 2-5, suggesting that the model may overestimate dust deposition in our study area.This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

How well can we quantify dust deposition to the ocean?

Deposition of continental mineral aerosols (dust) in the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, between the coast of Africa and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, was estimated using several strategies based on the measurement of aerosols, trace metals dissolved in seawater, particulate material filtered from the water column, particles collected by sediment traps and sediments. Most of the data used in this synthesis involve samples collected during US GEOTRACES expeditions in 2010 and 2011, although some results from the literature are also used. Dust deposition generated by a global model serves as a reference against which the results from each observational strategy are compared. Observation-based dust fluxes disagree with one another by as much as two orders of magnitude, although most of the methods produce results that are consistent with the reference model to within a factor of 5. The large range of estimates indicates that further work is needed to reduce uncertainties associated with each method before it can be applied routinely to map dust deposition to the ocean. Calculated dust deposition using observational strategies thought to have the smallest uncertainties is lower than the reference model by a factor of 2-5, suggesting that the model may overestimate dust deposition in our study area.This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

Response to Comments on "Reconciliation of the Devils Hole climate record with orbital forcing"

Winograd and Coplen question the thorium-230 distribution model proposed to explain the age bias observed with increasing depth during Termination II. We have evaluated both criticisms and find that all samples display virtually identical fabrics, argue that the modern setting is not analogous to the conditions during Termination II, and reiterate the robustness of our age models. Our conclusions remain unchanged.

Strong coupling of Asian Monsoon and Antarctic climates on sub-orbital timescales

There is increasing evidence that millennial-scale climate variability played an active role on orbital-scale climate changes, but the mechanism for this remains unclear. A ²³⁰Th-dated stalagmite δ¹⁸O record between 88 and 22 thousand years (ka) ago from Yongxing Cave in central China characterizes changes in Asian monsoon (AM) strength. After removing the 65°N insolation signal from our record, the δ¹⁸O residue is strongly anti-phased with Antarctic temperature variability on sub-orbital timescales during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Furthermore, once the ice volume signal from Antarctic ice core records were removed and extrapolated back to the last two glacial-interglacial cycles, we observe a linear relationship for both short- and long-duration events between Asian and Antarctic climate changes. This provides the robust evidence of a link between northern and southern hemisphere climates that operates through changes in atmospheric circulation. We find that the weakest monsoon closely associated with the warmest Antarctic event always occurred during the Terminations. This finding, along with similar shifts in the opal flux record, suggests that millennial-scale events play a key role in driving the deglaciation through positive feedbacks associated with enhanced upwelling and increasing CO₂.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ¹⁸O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Onset and duration of transitions into Greenland Interstadials 15.2 and 14 in northern China constrained by an annually laminated stalagmite

The onset and duration of abrupt transitions into Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events can be studied in detail in Greenland ice cores given the excellent relative uncertainty of its lamina-counting chronology. For other geological archives, however, the shorter intervals are not determined accurately due to lack of clear annual lamina. Here, we present an oxygen isotope record of a stalagmite with well-developed annual lamina from Xinglong Cave, northern China, covering DO 15 and 14. Except for the absence of Greenland Interstadial (GIS) 15.1, the pattern of this record strongly resembles that of Greenland ice cores on millennial scales as well as the detailed centennial-scale cooling excursions within GIS 14. Additionally, the transitions into GIS 15.2 and 14, constrained by lamina counting, lasted 74 and 27 yr, respectively, both of which are in excellent agreement with that of the NGRIP record on the GICC05 timescales (100 ± 6 and 20 ± 1 yr, respectively). The close coupling of abrupt climatic oscillations on millennial to decadal scales between Greenland and northern China implies a rapid atmospheric teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the East Asian Summer Monsoon regions, probably via the westerlies.

Reconciliation of the Devils Hole climate record with orbital forcing

The driving force behind Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and much associated climate change is widely considered to be orbital forcing. However, previous versions of the iconic Devils Hole (Nevada) subaqueous calcite record exhibit shifts to interglacial values ~10,000 years before orbitally forced ice age terminations, and interglacial durations ~10,000 years longer than other estimates. Our measurements from Devils Hole 2 replicate virtually all aspects of the past 204,000 years of earlier records, except for the timing during terminations, and they lower the age of the record near Termination II by ~8000 years, removing both ~10,000-year anomalies. The shift to interglacial values now broadly coincides with the rise in boreal summer insolation, the marine termination, and the rise in atmospheric CO2, which is consistent with mechanisms ultimately tied to orbital forcing.

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ¹⁸O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ¹⁸O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

North Atlantic storm track changes during the Last Glacial Maximum recorded by Alpine speleothems

The European Alps are an effective barrier for meridional moisture transport and are thus uniquely placed to record shifts in the North Atlantic storm track pattern associated with the waxing and waning of Late-Pleistocene Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. The lack of well-dated terrestrial proxy records spanning this time period, however, renders the reconstruction of past atmospheric patterns difficult. Here we present a precisely dated, continuous terrestrial record of meteoric precipitation in Europe between 30 and 14.7 ka. In contrast to present-day conditions, our speleothem data provide strong evidence for preferential advection of moisture from the South across the Alps supporting a southward shift of the storm track during the local Last Glacial Maximum (that is, 26.5–23.5 ka). Moreover, our age control indicates that this circulation pattern preceded the Northern Hemisphere precession maximum by ~3 ka, suggesting that obliquity may have played a considerable role in the Alpine ice aggradation.

Insights into Late-Pleistocene Northern Hemisphere storm track variability are hampered by a lack of well-dated proxy records. Here, the authors present a precisely dated record of meteoric precipitation between 30 and 14.7 ka, and show that obliquity may have played a vital role in Alpine glacier advance.

800,000 years of abrupt climate variability

We constructed an 800,000-year synthetic record of Greenland climate variability based on the thermal bipolar seesaw model. Our Greenland analog reproduces much of the variability seen in the Greenland ice cores over the past 100,000 years. The synthetic record shows strong similarity with the absolutely dated speleothem record from China, allowing us to place ice core records within an absolute timeframe for the past 400,000 years. Hence, it provides both a stratigraphic reference and a conceptual basis for assessing the long-term evolution of millennial-scale variability and its potential role in climate change at longer time scales. Indeed, we provide evidence for a ubiquitous association between bipolar seesaw oscillations and glacial terminations throughout the Middle to Late Pleistocene.

800,000 years of abrupt climate variability

We constructed an 800,000-year synthetic record of Greenland climate variability based on the thermal bipolar seesaw model. Our Greenland analog reproduces much of the variability seen in the Greenland ice cores over the past 100,000 years. The synthetic record shows strong similarity with the absolutely dated speleothem record from China, allowing us to place ice core records within an absolute timeframe for the past 400,000 years. Hence, it provides both a stratigraphic reference and a conceptual basis for assessing the long-term evolution of millennial-scale variability and its potential role in climate change at longer time scales. Indeed, we provide evidence for a ubiquitous association between bipolar seesaw oscillations and glacial terminations throughout the Middle to Late Pleistocene.

The last glacial termination

A major puzzle of paleoclimatology is why, after a long interval of cooling climate, each late Quaternary ice age ended with a relatively short warming leg called a termination. We here offer a comprehensive hypothesis of how Earth emerged from the last global ice age. A prerequisite was the growth of very large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, whose subsequent collapse created stadial conditions that disrupted global patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation. The Southern Hemisphere westerlies shifted poleward during each northern stadial, producing pulses of ocean upwelling and warming that together accounted for much of the termination in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. Rising atmospheric CO2 during southern upwelling pulses augmented warming during the last termination in both polar hemispheres.