Recovery expectations of neck pain patients do not predict treatments outcome in manual therapy

Patient recovery expectations can predict treatment outcome. Little is known about the association of patient recovery expectations on treatment outcome in patients with neck pain consulting a manual therapist. This study evaluates the predictive value of recovery expectations in neck pain patients consulting manual therapists in the Netherlands. The primary outcome measure 'recovery' is defined as 'reduction in pain and perceived improvement'. A prospective cohort study a total of 1195 neck pain patients. Patients completed the Patient Expectancies List (PEL) at baseline (3 item questionnaire, score range from 3 to 12), functional status (NDI), the Global Perceived Effect (GPE) for recovery (7-points Likert scale) post treatment and pain scores (NRS) at baseline and post treatment. The relationship between recovery expectancy and recovery (dichotomized GPE scores) was assessed by logistic regression analysis. Patients generally reported high recovery expectations on all three questions of the PEL (mean sumscores ranging from 11.3 to 11.6). When adjusted for covariates the PEL sum-score did not predict recovery (explained variance was 0.10 for the total PEL). Separately, the first question of the PEL showed predictive potential (OR 3.7; 95%CI 0.19-73.74) for recovery, but failed to reach statistical significance. In this study patient recovery expectations did not predict treatment outcome. Variables predicting recovery were recurrence and duration of pain. The precise relationship between patient recovery expectations and outcome is complex and still inconclusive. Research on patient expectancy would benefit from more consistent use of theoretical expectancy and outcome models.

River toxicity assessment using molecular biosensors: Heavy metal contamination in the Turag-Balu-Buriganga river systems, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Pollution in rapidly urbanising cities and in delta systems is a serious problem that blights the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, damaging and restricting potable water supply and supplies to industry (Whitehead et al, 2015, 2018). Employing new technology based on luminescent molecular biosensors, the toxicity in the rivers around Dhaka in Bangladesh, namely the Turag, Tongi, Balu and Buriganga, has been assessed. Samples taken at 36 sites during medium and low flow conditions and during the Bishwa Ijtema Festival revealed high levels of cell toxicity, as well as high concentrations of metals, particularly aluminium, cadmium, chromium, iron, zinc, lithium, selenium and nickel. Chemical analysis also revealed low dissolved oxygen levels and anoxic conditions in the rivers at certain sites. The bacterial molecular biosensors were demonstrated to be fast, with results in 30 min, robust and a highly sensitive method for the assessment of water toxicity in the field. Furthermore, the biosensor toxicity analysis correlated with the metals data, and a multivariate regression relationship was developed relating toxicity to key metals, such a selenium, zinc and chromium. The resulting model has been validated against split samples and the Bishwa Ijtema Festival data. The combination of modelling and the molecular biosensor technology provides a new approach to detecting and managing pollution in urban river systems.

Modelling heavy metals in the Buriganga River System, Dhaka, Bangladesh: Impacts of tannery pollution control

Heavy metal pollution from tanneries is a global problem in many rapidly developing economies. Effluent discharges into rivers cause serious problems for water quality, damaging ecology and threatening the livelihoods of people, especially in developing urban centres which often have a high concentration of factories. The industry intensive capital area of Bangladesh is impacted with high levels of metals pollution in rivers in the Greater Dhaka Watershed. Sampling and modelling studies have been undertaken to assess pollution in the Buriganga River System in Dhaka. The process based, dynamic model INCA (Integrated Catchments) model has been used to simulate metals along the Buriganga River System in Central Dhaka. Observed and simulated metals concentrations are high, and the model shows that the proposed transfer of the tannery industry upstream helps to reduce the pollution significantly downstream. However, moving the industry upstream may be counterproductive as it is discharged into the upper reaches of the river. This will create pollution upstream unless the newly constructed effluent treatment system can operate at a high level.

1109Enhancing transition from hospital to home for people with cardiovascular disease

Background

Health care services have a responsibility to ensure transition from hospital to home is seamless as this is a vulnerable time for patients. In 2013 the Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) and Heart Failure (HF) Management Programs at a large tertiary referral hospital in our city, were re-configured to become one cardiac service. This model of care incorporated management of patients along the continuum of cardiac illness from initial diagnosis to end stage disease including end stage heart failure and intractable angina. This model included nurse-led in-patient consultations, post-discharge case management, CR and HF education and exercise programs, HF titration clinics, and home visits. Within health-care, organisational design can be considered a variable and evolving tool for improving the quality of patient care. The redesign of two clinical services provided an opportunity to improve health-care delivery for patients with cardiovascular disease.

Purpose

To evaluate a patient centred post-discharge model of care for patients admitted to hospital for an acute cardiovascular event.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of routinely collected data was undertaken using standard descriptive statistics to report the number of in-patient consultations, referrals generated, patients case-managed and all cause unplanned readmissions within 28 days of hospital discharge.

Results

Data was analysed from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018. Over the 5 years 11929 in-patients with cardiovascular disease received consultations from specialised nursing staff employed in the amalgamated cardiac service and 10598 (89%) patients were referred to appropriate post discharge CR and HF programs. From the in-patient consultations, 2254 (21%) patients who lived within our geographical area were case-managed by our specialist nursing staff. Post-discharge follow-up within 14 days was achieved for 1917 (85%) of these patients. Of the 2254 patients, 322 (14%) had an unplanned all cause readmission within 28 days of hospital discharge.

Conclusion

The evaluation data indicates that our model of integrated care provided effective post discharge management for patients with cardiac disease. Developing a model of care for these patients is challenging as they need to engage in self-care and adhere to a complex medication regime often with changing dosages. However effective case management post discharge including secondary prevention programs can decrease readmissions and improve outcomes for these patients.

A Quantitative Public Health Risk Assessment Tool for Planning for At-Risk Populations

The Drexel University Center for Public Health Readiness and Communication developed a quantitative public health risk assessment tool that has been used in Pennsylvania and across the United States. The tool assesses hazard impacts on health care and public health metrics and incorporates the planning needs of at-risk populations. The flexible platform using Microsoft Excel allows planners to customize hazard assessment and use jurisdiction-specific data. Findings from the risk assessment can guide planning and evaluate preparedness progress over time.

Subjective memory complaints and incident dementia in a high risk older adult hypertensive population

BACKGROUND

there is a growing body of evidence demonstrating an association between subjective memory complaints (SMC) and an increased risk of incident cognitive decline or dementia. To date this has not been examined in hypertensive older adults, a prevalent and growing population group at high risk of cognitive decline.

METHODS

using data from participants in the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial cohort the association between baseline SMC and incident cognitive decline and dementia was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Exam and diagnoses of dementia were made using standard diagnostic criteria. SMC was assessed by the question 'do you feel that you have more problems with memory than most?' Analyses were rerun to examine the associations by level of baseline cognitive function, to evaluate the role of SMC by dementia type and by sex.

RESULTS

baseline SMC were associated with an increased risk of developing any dementia (hazard ratio (HR)1.63 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.18:2.25)), Alzheimer's disease (HR1.59 (95% CI: 1.08:2.34)) and vascular dementia (HR2.05 (95% CI: 1.19:3.54)). Similar patterns were seen across all levels of baseline MMSE but were strongest in those with scores of 25-27. There were no clear differences by sex.

DISCUSSION

a positive report of SMC assessed by a single question in an older adult with hypertension raises the possibility of increased risk of incident dementia. As such its use may be a useful addition to the repertoire of the general practitioner and geriatrician when assessing older adults.

Acid monomer analysis in waterborne polymer systems by targeted labeling of carboxylic acid functionality, followed by pyrolysis - gas chromatography

Pyrolysis - gas chromatography - (PyGC) is a common method to analyse the composition of natural and synthetic resins. The analysis of acid functionality in, for example, waterborne polyacrylates and polyurethanes polymers has proven to be difficult due to solubility issues, inter- and intramolecular interaction effects, lack of detectability in chromatographic analysis, and lack of thermal stability. Conventional analytical techniques, such as PyGC, cannot be used for the direct detection and identification of acidic monomers, due to thermal rearrangements that take place during pyrolysis. To circumvent this, the carboxylic acid groups are protected prior to thermal treatment by reaction with 2-bromoacetophenone. Reaction conditions are investigated and optimised wrt. conversion measurements. The aproach is applied to waterborne polyacryalates and the results are discussed. This approach enables identification and (semi)quantitative analysis of different acid functionalities in waterborne polymers by PyGC.

Oversimplification of Dementia Risk Reduction Messaging Is a Threat to Knowledge Translation in Dementia Prevention Research

The evidence for specific risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia and all cause dementia is increasing rapidly in quantity and quality. This has enabled the compilation of risk assessment tools for Alzheimer’s disease (1), and their validation (2). It has also supported the promulgation of public health messaging about dementia risk reduction or dementia prevention. In general these developments are strong advances in the field of dementia prevention. However, the oversimplification of the findings and possible over-or mis-interpretation of their meaning, poses risks to accurate and effective knowledge translation in this field. Lack of balance in the interpretation of evidence on risk factors for dementia may lead to trials of interventions for dementia prevention that are ineffective. This will waste resources and create pessimism about dementia prevention research. Two potential problems that may occur when translating evidence from observational research into prescriptions for prevention are identified here. The first is the generalisation of specific findings about risk factors either to multiple types of dementia or to multiple populations, when the evidence is in fact relevant to specific populations or outcomes. The second is the inference that reversal of a risk factor will lead to prevention, without knowledge of the threshold at which a factor becomes a ‘risk’, or evidence that reversal of the risk factor also reverses neuropathological processes instigated or caused by the risk factor.