Comparison of bleeding risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation: insights from the RE-LY trial

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation is the mainstay of stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but must be balanced against the associated bleeding risk. Several risk scores have been proposed for prediction of bleeding events in patients with AF.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the performance of contemporary clinical bleeding risk scores in 18 113 patients with AF randomized to dabigatran 110 mg, 150 mg or warfarin in the RE-LY trial.

METHODS

HAS-BLED, ORBIT, ATRIA and HEMORR₂ HAGES bleeding risk scores were calculated based on clinical information at baseline. All major bleeding events were centrally adjudicated.

RESULTS

There were 1182 (6.5%) major bleeding events during a median follow-up of 2.0 years. For all the four schemes, high-risk subgroups had higher risk of major bleeding (all P < 0.001). The ORBIT score showed the best discrimination with c-indices of 0.66, 0.66 and 0.62, respectively, for major, life-threatening and intracranial bleeding, which were significantly better than for the HAS-BLED score (difference in c-indices: 0.050, 0.053 and 0.048, respectively, all P < 0.05). The ORBIT score also showed the best calibration compared with previous data. Significant treatment interactions between the bleeding scores and the risk of major bleeding with dabigatran 150 mg BD versus warfarin were found for the ORBIT (P = 0.0019), ATRIA (P < 0.001) and HEMORR₂ HAGES (P < 0.001) scores. HAS-BLED score showed a nonsignificant trend for interaction (P = 0.0607).

CONCLUSIONS

Amongst the current clinical bleeding risk scores, the ORBIT score demonstrated the best discrimination and calibration. All the scores demonstrated, to a variable extent, an interaction with bleeding risk associated with dabigatran or warfarin.

Associations of urinary sodium excretion with cardiovascular events in individuals with and without hypertension: a pooled analysis of data from four studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies reported a U-shaped association between urinary sodium excretion and cardiovascular disease events and mortality. Whether these associations vary between those individuals with and without hypertension is uncertain. We aimed to explore whether the association between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease events and all-cause mortality is modified by hypertension status.

METHODS

In this pooled analysis, we studied 133,118 individuals (63,559 with hypertension and 69,559 without hypertension), median age of 55 years (IQR 45-63), from 49 countries in four large prospective studies and estimated 24-h urinary sodium excretion (as group-level measure of intake). We related this to the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular disease events over a median of 4.2 years (IQR 3.0-5.0) and blood pressure.

FINDINGS

Increased sodium intake was associated with greater increases in systolic blood pressure in individuals with hypertension (2.08 mm Hg change per g sodium increase) compared with individuals without hypertension (1.22 mm Hg change per g; pinteraction<0.0001). In those individuals with hypertension (6835 events), sodium excretion of 7 g/day or more (7060 [11%] of population with hypertension: hazard ratio [HR] 1.23 [95% CI 1.11-1.37]; p<0.0001) and less than 3 g/day (7006 [11%] of population with hypertension: 1.34 [1.23-1.47]; p<0.0001) were both associated with increased risk compared with sodium excretion of 4-5 g/day (reference 25% of the population with hypertension). In those individuals without hypertension (3021 events), compared with 4-5 g/day (18,508 [27%] of the population without hypertension), higher sodium excretion was not associated with risk of the primary composite outcome (≥ 7 g/day in 6271 [9%] of the population without hypertension; HR 0.90 [95% CI 0.76-1.08]; p=0.2547), whereas an excretion of less than 3 g/day was associated with a significantly increased risk (7547 [11%] of the population without hypertension; HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.10-1.45]; p=0.0009).

INTERPRETATION

Compared with moderate sodium intake, high sodium intake is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and death in hypertensive populations (no association in normotensive population), while the association of low sodium intake with increased risk of cardiovascular events and death is observed in those with or without hypertension. These data suggest that lowering sodium intake is best targeted at populations with hypertension who consume high sodium diets.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Low resting heart rates are associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with vascular disease: results of the ONTARGET/TRANSCEND studies

BACKGROUND

Elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high resting heart rate (HR) are associated with cardiovascular end-points. Although the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and SBP is well established, the relation between AF and HR remains unclear.

METHODS

In patients from the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND studies with high cardiovascular disease risk (n = 27 064), new-onset AF was evaluated in relation to mean SBP, visit-to-visit variation in SBP (SBP-CV; i.e. SD/mean × 100%), mean HR and visit-to-visit variation in HR (HR-CV).

RESULTS

Low mean HR (P < 0.0001) and high SBP (P = 0.0021) were associated with incident AF. High SBP-CV (P = 0.031) and HR-CV (P < 0.0001) were also associated with incident AF. After adjustment for confounders, SBP and SBP-CV were no longer significantly associated with AF. The detrimental effect of low HR was particularly evident in subjects who were not receiving treatment with beta-blockers (P = 0.014 for interaction between beta-blocker use and mean HR). In addition to low HR, high HR-CV and high SBP had additive effects on incident AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Low mean HR (<60 beats min(-1) ) is independently associated with incident AF, and low HR-CV and high SBP further increase the incidence of new-onset AF in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

Resting heart rate is associated with renal disease outcomes in patients with vascular disease: results of the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND studies

BACKGROUND

Resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with cardiovascular disease outcomes in high-risk patients. It is not known whether RHR is predictive of renal outcomes such as albuminuria, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or doubling of creatinine. We evaluated whether RHR could predict renal endpoints in patients at a high risk of cardiovascular disease. We also tested the effects of RHR at different levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP).

METHODS

We analysed data from 28 757 patients in the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials. RHR and SBP were available for a mean of 4.9 ± 0.4 visits (range 3-5) within the first 2 years of the studies. Albuminuria was determined at baseline, at 2 years and at study end.

RESULTS

Mean RHR was predictive of incident micro-albuminuria [hazard ratio (HR) for RHR ≥80 vs. <60 beats min(-1) 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.71, P < 0.0001], incident macro-albuminuria (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.39-2.42, P < 0.0001), doubling of creatinine (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.00-2.17, P = 0.050) and ESRD (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.00-3.16, P = 0.050), and the combined renal end-point (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.32-1.74, P < 0.0001). Associations were robust at SBPs from <120 to ≥150 mmHg, with the lowest risk at a SBP of 130-140 mmHg.

CONCLUSION

Resting heart rate is a potent predictor of these renal outcomes, as well as their combination, in patients with cardiovascular disease. RHR at all SBP levels should be considered as a possible renal disease risk predictor and should be investigated as a treatment target with RHR-reducing agents.