Evolutionary optimization assisted delayed deep cycle reservoir modeling method with its application to ship heave motion prediction

As one emerging reservoir modeling method, cycle reservoir with regular jumps (CRJ) provides one effective tool for many time series analysis tasks such as ship heave motion prediction. However, the shallow learning structure of single CRJ model limits its memory capacity and leads to unsatisfactory prediction performance. In order to pursue the stronger dynamic characteristic description of time series data, a delayed deep CRJ model is presented in this paper by integrating the deep learning framework with delay links and the evolutionary optimization for mixed-integer problem. Different from the basic CRJ model with only one reservoir, delayed deep CRJ builds multiple serial reservoirs with inserting the delay links between adjacent reservoirs. Due to the design of dynamic deep learning structure, the memory capacity is enlarged to improve ship heave motion prediction. Aiming at the mix-integer optimization problem in delayed deep CRJ model, a heuristic evolutionary optimization scheme based on the stepwise differential evolution algorithm is applied to determine the delayed deep CRJ parameters automatically. The stepwise differential evolution assisted delayed deep CRJ model can avoid the non-optimal solution resulted from the manual parameter setting effectively. Finally, one numerical example and the real experiment data are utilized to validate the methods and the results demonstrate that delayed deep CRJ model has better prediction performance in contrast to the basic CRJ method.

Gross Tumor Volume Predicts Survival and Pathological Complete Response of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

Background

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neo-CRT) plus surgery has greatly improved the prognosis of locally advanced esophageal cancer (EC) patients. But which factors may influence the pathological tumor response and long-term survival remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to identify the prognostic biomarkers of locally advanced EC patients receiving neo-CRT.

Methods

We reviewed the data of 72 patients with cT2-4N0-3M0 EC who underwent neo-CRT at our hospital. The patients received intensity-modulated radiation therapy with a total radiation dose of 41.4–60.0 Gy. Most patients received platinum + paclitaxel-based combination regimens every three weeks for 2–4 cycles. The recorded data included age, sex, smoking history, alcohol use, histology, tumor location, clinical TNM stage, tumor length, gross tumor volume (GTV), GTV of primary tumor (GTVp), GTV of lymph nodes (GTVn), radiation dose, and number of chemotherapy cycles. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and pathological complete response (pCR) were analyzed.

Results

The 3-year OS and PFS rates of these patients who underwent neo-CRT were 51.14% and 43.28%, respectively. In the univariate analyses, smoking history, clinical stage, GTV, GTVp, and GTVn were significantly associated with OS, whereas alcohol use, GTV, GTVp, and GTVn were significantly associated with PFS. Furthermore, in the multivariate analysis, GTV was an independent prognostic predictor of OS (hazard ratio (HR): 14.14, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.747–53.33, P < 0.0001) and PFS (HR: 6.090, 95% CI: 2.398–15.47, P < 0.0001). In addition, GTV < 60.50 cm³ compared to > 60.50 cm³ was significantly associated with higher pCR rate (59.3% and 27.8%, respectively, P = 0.038). High dose (> 50 Gy) and increased number of chemotherapy cycles (≥ 3) didn’t improve the OS or PFS in patients with GTV > 60.50 cm³.

Conclusion

GTV was an independent prognostic factor of long-term survival in EC patients, which may be because GTV is associated with histological response to neo-CRT. Additionally, patients with GTV > 60.50 cm³ didn’t benefit from increased radiation dose or increased number of chemotherapy cycles.

POS0315 DIAGNOSTIC PERFORMANCE OF CASPAR CRITERIA FOR PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS WITH OR WITHOUT INTEGRATION OF ULTRASOUND

Background

Although the CASPAR criteria in the diagnosis of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have been validated, CASPAR based on physical examination (PE) is not “gold standard”. The ultrasound (US) could improve the diagnostic accuracy as compared to clinical examination alone.

Objectives

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of CASPAR criteria for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) with or without integration of ultrasound (US).

Methods

The patients with hint of PsA were enrolled. Tender and swollen joint counts, presents of enthesitis and dactylitis were collected by physical examination (PE). US was performed to evaluate peripheral joints, entheses and tendons. The additional value of US to CASPAR criteria were analysed.

Results

326 consecutive patients were enrolled, with 164 PsA and 162 non-PsA. Significantly higher frequencies of tenosynovitis and enthesitis on US and new bone formation on X-ray were found in PsA than non-PsA patients (56.7% vs. 13.0%; 62.2% vs. 14.2%; 62.2% vs. 8.0%, p<0.01 for all). Logistic regression analysis showed that dactylitis (OR=12.0, p<0.01), family history of PsO/PsA (OR=3.1, p<0.05), nail involvement (OR=3.5, p=0.01), new bone formation (OR=14.8, p<0.01) and tenosynovitis on US (OR=21.3, p<0.01), enthesitis on US (OR=21.7, p<0.01) were independent risk factors for PsA. Adding US tenosynovitis and/or enthesitis to CASPAR criteria showed better performance by improving the specificity (91.4% vs. 67.9%) and meanwhile keeping sensitivity (92.1% vs. 96.3%). When replacing hand X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria, the sensitivity and specificity were comparable to CASPAR criteria adding with US. The diagnostic accuracy was 82.2% for CASPAR criteria based on PE, 91.7% for CASPAR integrated with US, and 91.4% for CASPAR with US to replace X-ray.

Conclusion

CASPAR criteria based on US improve the diagnosis utility of PsA than CASPAR criteria based on PE. US assessment is valuable in the diagnosis of PsA.

References

[1]Fiorenza A, Bonitta G, Gerratana E, et al. Assessment of enthesis in patients with psoriatic arthritis and fibromyalgia using clinical examination and ultrasound. Clinical and experimental rheumatology 2020;38 Suppl 123:31-9.

[2]Zabotti A, Bandinelli F, Batticciotto A, et al. Musculoskeletal ultrasonography for psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis patients: a systematic literature review. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2017;56:1518-32.

Figure 1.

ROC curves for adding US or substituting X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve illustrates the diagnosis performance of CASPAR criteria adding US or substituting X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria and CASPAR criteria based on PE alone. The area under the curve of the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.929 (95%CI 0.897, 0.961) (p<0.01) for adding US to CASPAR criteria. AUC was 0.908 (95%CI 0.876, 0.940) (p<0.01) for CASPAR criteria based on PE. And AUC was 0.916 (95%CI 0.880, 0.951) (p<0.01) for substituting X-ray by US in CASPAR criteria. CASPAR: ClASsification criteria for Psoriatic ARthritis; PE: physical examination; US: ultrasound.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

[Advances in research of interchangeable immunization with live attenuated Japanese encephalitis vaccines and inactivated vaccines]

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable encephalitis in Asia and the Western Pacific, which mainly invades central nervous system. Vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent JE. Currently, both live attenuated Japanese encephalitis vaccines (JE-L) and inactivated vaccines (JE-I) are in use. Due to the supply of vaccines and the personal choice of recipients, there will be a demand for interchangeable immunization of these two vaccines. However, relevant research is limited. By reviewing domestic and foreign research evidence, this article summarizes the current situation of the interchangeable use of JE-L and JE-I, and makes recommendations when the interchangeable immunization is in urgent need, so as to provide reference for practical vaccination and policymaking in China.

[Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019]

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019. Methods: The data of hepatitis A incidence in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance system of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. ArcGIS 10.7 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis. SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis. SPSS 25.0 software was used for additional analysis. Results: Zhejiang Province has reported 5 465 cases of hepatitis A in 2010-2019 years, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.00/100 000, and periodicity and seasonality are not obvious. The incidence of male was higher than that of female (P=0.023), and the highest incidence rate was 50-59 years old. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2017, with the weakest correlation in 2010 (Moran's I =0.103, Z=1.769, P=0.049), and the strongest correlation in 2016 (Moran's I=0.328, Z=4.979, P=0.001). Spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that there was spatial aggregation of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019, with a total of three aggregation areas identified. Among them, the mostly aggregation area was concentrated in Xiangshan county of Ningbo city, which covered 10 counties (cities and districts), including Ninghai county and Yinzhou district, and appeared from January 1 to June 30, 2012. Conclusion: The incidence level of hepatitis A in Zhejiang Province shows a stable fluctuation trend from 2010 to 2019, and the seasonal regularity is not obvious. The population group aged 50-59 years old is the key population. There is spatial aggregation in the epidemic situation of hepatitis A. Targeted prevention and control measures of hepatitis A should be done based on the law of spatiotemporal aggregation and local incidence.

[Evaluating the real-world vaccine effectiveness using a regression discontinuity design]

Estimating the actual real-world effectiveness of the vaccine is an essential part of the post-marketing evaluation. This regression discontinuity design (RDD) using observational data is designed to quantify the effect of an intervention when eligibility for the intervention is based on a defined cutoff as age, making it suited to estimate vaccine effects. This approach can avoid the high cost and ethical issues; overcome difficulties in the organization and practice process in randomized controlled trials, which leads to a higher level of causal inference evidence and more realistic results. Here, we describe key features of RDD in general, and then specific scenarios, with examples, to illustrate that RDD are an essential tool for advancing our understanding of vaccine effects.

Optical Imaging in the Diagnosis of OPMDs Malignant Transformation

Oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) are a heterogeneous group of oral lesions with a variable risk of malignant transformation to oral squamous cell carcinoma. The current OPMDs malignant transformation screening depends on conventional oral examination (COE) and is confirmed by biopsy and histologic examination. However, early malignant lesions with subtle mucosal changes are easily unnoticed by COE based on visual inspection and palpation. Optical techniques have been used to determine the biological structure, composition, and function of cells and tissues noninvasively by analyzing the changes in their optical properties. The oral epithelium and stroma undergo persistent structural, functional, and biochemical alterations during malignant transformation, leading to variations in optical tissue properties; optical techniques are thus powerful tools for detecting OPMDs malignant transformation. The optical imaging methods already used to detect OPMDs malignant transformation in vivo include autofluorescence imaging, narrowband imaging, confocal reflectance microscopy, and optical coherence tomography. They exhibit advantages over COE in detecting biochemical or morphologic changes at the molecular or cellular level in vivo; however, limitations also exist. This article comprehensively reviews the various real-time in vivo optical imaging methods used in the adjunctive diagnosis of OPMDs malignant transformation. We focus on the principles of these techniques, review their clinical application, and compare and summarize their advantages and disadvantages. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of current challenges and future directions of this field.

Dynamic Frequency-Temperature Characteristic Modeling for Quartz Crystal Resonator Based on Improved Echo State Network

Quartz crystal resonators are the key component of various kinds of electronic systems because they provide the reference frequency source of the system running clocks. However, the frequency stability is often affected by the temperature. Therefore, the frequency-temperature ( f-T ) characteristic modeling has been an important research topic in the frequency control field. The classic f-T modeling method omits the system dynamics and may lead to a large frequency compensation error in the case of rapid temperature changing. To deal with this issue, this article proposes a dynamic f-T modeling method based on improved echo state network (ESN), called residual scaled ESN (RSESN). In the proposed method, the residual modeling framework is designed for purposes of good physical understandability and high prediction precision. This framework uses the static polynomial f-T model to depict the approximated data relationship and applies the complicated network model to compensate the detailed dynamic error. To estimate the dynamic errors, one effective dynamic modeling tool, ESN, is introduced to build the dynamic compensation model for f-T characteristic of quartz crystal resonators. For a better fitting performance, the ESN activation limitations are analyzed and the scaled echo states are constructed in the improved ESN model. The modeling and testing results on the real experiment data show that the proposed method can capture the dynamic information effectively and provide better frequency deviation predictions.

[Application of Hydrashift 2/4 daratumumab assay in eliminating interference of daratumumab on serum immunofixation electrophoresis]

Objective: To investigate the interference of daratumumab on immunofixation electrophoresis after treating plasma cell diseases and methods to eliminate the interference. Methods: Serum samples of eight patients with plasma cell diseases treated with daratumumab in Peking University People's Hospital from April 2020 to March 2021 were collected for standard immunofixation electrophoresis and Hydrashift 2/4 daratumumab assay. Results: After treatment, 81.3% (13/16) of the samples showed drug-induced monoclonal antibodies (IgG-κ) . The samples without drug-induced monoclonal bands were related to individual differences, administration intervals, and immunoglobulin levels. Among the samples with IgG-κ monoclonal bands, 76.9% (10/13) could be directly identified as endogenous or exogenous monoclonal bands by immunofixation electrophoresis, and the others (3/13) could be identified by Hydrashift 2/4 daratumumab assay. Conclusion: Hydrashift 2/4 daratumumab assay can remove the band of daratumumab on the immunofixation electrophoresis and help with efficacy evaluation.

[Prevalence of injury among children in 28 counties of 6 provinces in China in 2017]

Objective: To investigate the incidence of injuries among children aged 0-17 years from 28 counties in six provinces. Methods: According to the earlier study on data in different local areas and the current work plan, we selected the survey objects for a general survey on child injury prevalence in the last 12 months. The subjects included guardians of children who did not attend kindergartens, children from kindergartens, and primary school grades 1-3. Children from grades 4-6 primary school, junior high school, and senior high school were also included. Results: The overall rate of injured children was 4.83%, with the incidence of injuries as 5.75% in the last 12 months before the survey. Both the rate of injured children and incidence of injuries were higher in boys than that in girls. Children whose primary caregivers were relatives, grandparents, minors, or with an education level below the primary school had a relatively higher rate of both injured children and incidence of injuries. The first cause of child injury was fall. The time of child injury was mainly from June to October, mainly at home, with the main activity as playing. The significant injuries in children were contusion and abrasion, and the main parts injured were lower limbs, upper limbs, and head. Most of the injuries were cured, and the primary treatment was outpatient and emergency treatment. Conclusions: Boys and children whose parents can not take care of are the priority population for child injury prevention and control. Targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented according to the characteristics of injuries among children of different ages.

[The epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of animal injuries among children from 28 counties in 6 provinces, China]

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristic and influencing factors of animal injuries among children from 28 counties/districts in 6 provinces of China to provide evidence for formulating related prevention measures and strategies. Methods: Data was obtained from 'Children injury prevention project, 2016-2020'. Variables on the characteristics, including incidence, locations, related activities, time, and outcomes among children, were described. The negative binomial regression model analyzed animal injury frequency influencing factors. Results: There were 107 029 boys and 97 599 girls, with a gender ratio of 1.10, among the 204 628 children aged 0-17 in 28 counties/districts in 6 provinces of China. Per-person and per-time incidence rates of animal injuries were 0.70% and 0.72%, both higher in boys than in girls. Animal injuries among children mainly occurred in home (73.20%), road/street (7.51%), and open space of community/village (6.77%), during playing (63.15%), with the peak time between 12:01-18:00 (45.03%). Upper limbs (47.89%), lower limbs (35.31%), and head (8.44%) were the most injured body parts. Outpatient or emergency treatment (85.19%) had been carried out. The negative binomial regression showed that sex, grade, guardian educational level, urban or rural, and daily communication between guardians and children as influencing factors in the frequency of animal injuries among children. Conclusions: Special attention should be given to boys, at home, in projects on animal injury prevention and control. There were many influencing factors of animal injury frequency. Knowledge of injury prevention should be popularized to children and guardians. Related comprehensive intervention should be developed in families, schools, and social settings.

[Prevalence and prevention of traffic injury among children in 28 counties of 6 provinces in China, 2017]

Objective: To investigate the incidence of traffic injuries among children aged 0-17 years in 28 counties of 6 provinces and to provide prevention suggestions. Methods: Using the general survey method, a questionnaire survey was conducted on the road traffic injuries of children in 28 counties of 6 provinces in 2017. Results: A total of 204 628 students were surveyed, 908 of whom had experiences of road traffic injuries. Road traffic injuries were 0.44% among children in 28 counties of 6 provinces in China and 0.94% among children who did not attend kindergartens. July is a high incidence period of road traffic injuries among children (12.92%). When children suffer from road traffic injuries, the first three activities were playing (21.61%), riding an electric bicycle (20.40%), walking (20.07%). Most injuries appeared as contusion/abrasion, accounting for 42.26% of the total cases. The injured parts were mainly lower limbs, upper limbs, and heads, accounting for 38.85%, 23.29%, and 20.20%. Most children with road traffic injuries recovered after related treatments, accounting for 85.43% of all cases. The median length of hospital stay of children with road traffic injuries was seven days, and the median expense in hospitals was 3 000 Yuan (RMB). Conclusions: The incidence of road traffic injuries among males appeared higher than females, and the children who did not attend the kindergartens were the highest. During playing, riding an electric bicycle and walking were the top three activities prone to road traffic injuries.

[An exploratory framework of vaccine hesitancy monitoring and early warning system in China]

Vaccine hesitancy has spread worldwide recent years and resulting in increasing incidence of some well-controlled vaccine-preventable diseases, which is extremely unfavorable to the consolidation of the national immunization programme and the elimination of corresponding diseases. Based on the Complacency, Convenience and Confidence ("3Cs") model of vaccine hesitancy, combined with the practice experience of management of quality control through the whole vaccine life cycle in China, we introduce a framework of vaccine hesitancy monitoring and early warning in China to provide a reference for carrying out corresponding work. The indicator system of the framework derives from monitoring of vaccine life cycle quality management, population vaccine confidence, and service availability.

Topographically guided hierarchical mineralization

Material platforms based on interaction between organic and inorganic phases offer enormous potential to develop materials that can recreate the structural and functional properties of biological systems. However, the capability of organic-mediated mineralizing strategies to guide mineralization with spatial control remains a major limitation. Here, we report on the integration of a protein-based mineralizing matrix with surface topographies to grow spatially guided mineralized structures. We reveal how well-defined geometrical spaces defined within the organic matrix by the surface topographies can trigger subtle changes in single nanocrystal co-alignment, which are then translated to drastic changes in mineralization at the microscale and macroscale. Furthermore, through systematic modifications of the surface topographies, we demonstrate the possibility of selectively guiding the growth of hierarchically mineralized structures. We foresee that the capacity to direct the anisotropic growth of such structures would have important implications in the design of biomineralizing synthetic materials to repair or regenerate hard tissues.

The significance of Hashimoto's thyroiditis for postoperative complications of thyroid surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) is one of the most common immune-mediated diseases. It makes thyroid surgery more complicated and difficult because there may be adhesions between the thyroid gland and surrounding structures. However, it is still controversial whether HT patients carry a high risk for postoperative complications of thyroid surgery. The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of HT for the postoperative complications of thyroid surgery.

METHODS

A search for studies assessing the postoperative complication risks of HT patients compared with that of patients with benign nodules (BNs) was performed in PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science. Nine studies (20,118 cases, 1,582 cases of HT and 18,536 cases of BN) were identified, and the data from the relevant outcomes were extracted and analysed.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences between the HT group and BN group in recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy (RLNP) and permanent hypoparathyroidism (PHP). The rate of transient hypocalcaemia (THC) was significantly higher in the HT group (16.85%) than in the BN group (13.20%).

CONCLUSIONS

The meta-analysis showed that HT only increased the risk of the postoperative complication THC compared to BN. Understanding the significance of HT in postoperative hypoparathyroidism after thyroid surgery would help clinicians perform sufficient preoperative (and postoperative) assessments and to optimise surgical planning.

Modified Modeling Method of Quartz Crystal Resonator Frequency-Temperature Characteristic With Considering Thermal Hysteresis

The frequency-temperature ( f - T ) characteristic of quartz crystal resonators is an important topic closely related to the frequency-deviation compensation in the design of cost-effective oscillators. Traditional studies depict the f - T characteristic as a polynomial function (usually a cubic function). However, this omits the thermal hysteresis phenomenon and cannot provide a very accurate frequency compensation. To handle this issue, this article is to propose two modified f - T characteristic modeling methods with considering the thermal hysteresis. First, to reflect the thermal hysteresis property of quartz crystal resonators, a two-directional f - T model is designed by introducing two individual submodels for describing the increasing and decreasing temperature stages, respectively. Furthermore, to integrate the submodels and provide the more accurate frequency-deviation estimation, a holistic f - T characteristic model based on double-hidden layer extreme learning machine (DHL-ELM) is presented. Different from the basic ELM model, two hidden layers, including one deterministic nonlinear mapping and one random nonlinear activation layer, are constructed for a better description of f - T characteristic. To validate our studies, an experiment system is applied to obtain the testing data of the real crystal resonators, and the applications demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.