Development and validation of an XGBoost model to predict 5-year survival in elderly patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after surgery: a SEER-based study

Background

Nomograms have been established to predict survival in postoperative or elderly intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients. There are no models to predict postoperative survival in elderly ICC patients. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) can adjust the errors generated by existing models. This retrospective cohort study aimed to develop and validate an XGBoost model to predict postoperative 5-year survival in elderly ICC patients.

Methods

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program provided data on elderly ICC patients aged 60 years or older and undergoing surgery. The median follow-up time was 20 months. Totally 1,055 patients were classified as training (n=738) and testing (n=317) sets at a ratio of 7:3. The outcome was postoperative 5-year survival. Demographic, tumor-related and treatment-related variables were collected. Variables were screened using the XGBoost model. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and Kaplan-Meier curve. Cox regression analysis was conducted to estimate the risk of death in the predicted populations. The predictive abilities of the XGBoost model and the American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) system (7th edition) were compared.

Results

The XGBoost model achieved an AUC of 0.811, a sensitivity of 0.573, a specificity of 0.890, and a PPV of 0.849 in the training set. In the testing set, the model had an AUC of 0.713, a sensitivity of 0.478, a specificity of 0.814, and a PPV of 0.726. The 5-year mortality risk of patients predicted to die was 2.91 times that of patients predicted to survive [hazard ratio (HR) =2.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42-3.50]. The XGBoost model showed a better predictive performance than the AJCC staging system both in the training and testing sets. AJCC stage, multiple (satellite) tumors/nodules, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, more than one lobe invaded, direct invasion of adjacent organs, tumor size, and radiotherapy were relatively important features in survival prediction.

Conclusions

The XGBoost model exhibited some predictive capacity, which may be applied to predict postoperative 5-year survival for elderly ICC patients.

Chemotherapy exacerbates the survival paradox of colon cancer: a propensity score matching analysis

Background

Colon cancer is one of the most common tumor diseases in the world. Currently, clinicians usually evaluate the survival and prognosis of patients according to their tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. However, current studies have found that there is a certain survival paradox in TNM staging.

Methods

In the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, patients diagnosed with colon cancer by surgical pathology from 2004 to 2011 were selected for analysis of 5-year overall survival (OS). Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to analyze the difference in survival between different stages and the effect of chemotherapy on prognosis.

Results

The OS of stage IIIA colon cancer sufferers was significantly superior to stage IIB/IIC and separate stage IIB or IIC colon cancer patients before and after PSM analysis (P<0.05 for all). Moreover, the difference in survival was more significant when stage IIB/IIC patients were compared with stage IIIA patients with chemotherapy.

Conclusions

The survival paradox existed both in all stage IIB/IIC patients, or individual stage IIB or IIC patients compared with stage IIIA sufferers, and the survival paradox between stage IIIA and stage IIC was more obvious. Moreover, chemotherapy had a positive effect on the prognosis of patients with stage IIIA, IIC and IIB in this study. Chemotherapy exacerbates the survival paradox of colon cancer, even if it is not the cause of the survival paradox.

A novel nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival in small cell lung cancer patients with brain metastasis

Background

Brain metastasis (BM) is one of the most common metastatic sites in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC), and the prognosis remains very poor. This study aimed to establish a novel nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) in SCLC patients with BM.

Methods

SCLC patients with BM from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors, which were further used to construct the prognostic nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under ROC curve (AUC) and calibration plot. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical usefulness. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was applied to analyze the survival outcome.

Results

A total of 2,462 patients were enrolled in this study, and randomly assigned into training cohort (n=1,723) and validation cohort (n=739). Age, N stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, liver metastasis and lung metastasis were identified as independent prognostic factors of CSS. The C-indexes of nomogram was 0.683 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.667-0.699] in the training cohort, and 0.659 (95% CI: 0.634-0.684) in the validation cohort. The AUC values of 6-, 9- and 12-month CSS were 0.723, 0.742 and 0.737 respectively in the training cohort, while 0.715, 0.737 and 0.739 in the validation cohort. The ROC, calibration and DCA curves showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability of this nomogram in predicting prognosis. Moreover, patients in high-risk group had a worse survival outcome than patients in medium-risk and low-risk groups.

Conclusions

A novel nomogram was constructed and validated for predicting individual prognosis in SCLC patients with BM. This nomogram could help clinicians make effective treatment strategies for patients.

Patterns of care and prognostic evaluation for stage I-III upper esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study

Background

There is no strong evidence regarding the optimal treatment and specific prognosis prediction model for upper esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (UESCC). This study aimed to investigate the real-world treatment patterns and develop models to predict overall survival (OS) and esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) in patients with stage I-III UESCC.

Methods

Patients with T1-4N0-3M0 UESCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were identified from 2010 to 2017, and randomized to a training cohort and a validation cohort. The effect of treatment patterns on survival were comprehensively analyzed. Nomograms were developed by incorporating independent prognostic factors analyzed by Cox regression in the training cohort and evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCA) in two cohorts.

Results

A total of 677 patients were identified, including 452 in the training cohort and 225 in the validation cohort. Among all populations, 71.9% (487) received chemoradiotherapy without surgery, and chemoradiotherapy or/and surgery showed better survival than other treatments. However, surgery was rarely carried out for patients with stage II-III. T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent risks for both OS and ECSS, while age was also an independent risk for OS. The C-indexes for nomograms to predict OS (0.71 and 0.72) and ECSS (0.70 and 0.73) were greater than 7th AJCC staging system to predict OS (0.61 and 0.64) and ECSS (0.64 and 0.64) in both the training cohort and the validation cohort. Time-dependent ROC curves and DCA also suggested that nomograms performed consistently better than 7th AJCC staging system. The calibration curves demonstrated good consistency in predicting survival.

Conclusions

Chemoradiotherapy was a major treatment with preferable survival for patients with stage I-III UESCC. We have firstly developed and validated prognostic nomograms in patients with stage I-III UESCC, which would play a supplementary role in the current staging system.

An Interpretable Two-Phase Modeling Approach for Lung Cancer Survivability Prediction

Although lung cancer survival status and survival length predictions have primarily been studied individually, a scheme that leverages both fields in an interpretable way for physicians remains elusive. We propose a two-phase data analytic framework that is capable of classifying survival status for 0.5-, 1-, 1.5-, 2-, 2.5-, and 3-year time-points (phase I) and predicting the number of survival months within 3 years (phase II) using recent Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data from 2010 to 2017. In this study, we employ three analytical models (general linear model, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural networks), five data balancing techniques (synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), relocating safe level SMOTE, borderline SMOTE, adaptive synthetic sampling, and majority weighted minority oversampling technique), two feature selection methods (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest), and the one-hot encoding approach. By implementing a comprehensive data preparation phase, we demonstrate that a computationally efficient and interpretable method such as GLM performs comparably to more complex models. Moreover, we quantify the effects of individual features in phase I and II by exploiting GLM coefficients. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to (a) implement a comprehensive data processing approach to develop performant, computationally efficient, and interpretable methods in comparison to black-box models, (b) visualize top factors impacting survival odds by utilizing the change in odds ratio, and (c) comprehensively explore short-term lung cancer survival using a two-phase approach.

Development and Validation of Survival Nomograms in Patients with Primary Bladder Lymphoma

Background: The existing studies on primary bladder lymphoma (PBL) are retrospective analyses based on individual cases or small series studies, and the research on PBL is not unified and in-depth enough at present because of the scarcity of PBL and the lack of relevant literature. This study is designed to develop and validate nomograms for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) prediction in patients with PBL. Methods: According to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 405 patients diagnosed with PBL from 1975 to 2016 were collected and randomly assigned to training (n = 283) and validation (n = 122) cohort. After the multivariable Cox regression, the OS and CSS nomograms were developed. The discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness of the nomograms were assessed and validated, respectively, by the training and validation cohort. Furthermore, all of the patients were reclassified into high- and low-risk groups and their survival were compared through Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Results: Age, subtype, Ann Arbor stage, radiation and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS and age, sex, and subtype for CSS, then corresponding nomograms predicting the 3- and 5-year survival were constructed. The presented nomograms demonstrated good discrimination and calibration, which the C-index in the training and validation cohort were 0.744 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.705–0.783) and 0.675 (95% CI, 0.603–0.747) for OS nomogram and 0.692 (95% CI, 0.632–0.752) and 0.646 (95% CI, 0.549–0.743) for CSS nomogram, respectively. Furthermore, the nomograms can be used to effectively distinguish Patients with PBL at high risk of death. The clinical usefulness of the nomograms was visually displayed by decision curve analysis. Conclusion: We updated the baseline characteristics of patients with PBL and constructed OS and CSS nomograms to predict their 3- and 5-year survival. Using these nomograms, it would be convenient to individually predict the prognosis of patients with PBL and provide guidance for clinical treatment.

Comparisons of prognosis prediction accuracy between modified and unmodified versions of 8th edition ypTNM

Background

The prognostic value of the existing 8^th edition post-neoadjuvant treatment (ypTNM) appears to be limited, and necessary reassessment and modification should be carried out as needed. This study aimed to compare the prognosis prediction accuracy of modified and unmodified versions of the 8^th edition ypTNM.

Methods

Esophageal cancer patients who had received neoadjuvant therapy from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this observational longitudinal study. The median follow-up time was 26 months. All-cause mortality was the outcome variable. Demographic and clinical variables were collected as covariates. Kaplan-Meier (log-rank test) and Cox proportional hazards models were conducted for developing modified ypTNM staging. The concordance index (C-index) was calculated to analyze the discriminative ability of modified ypTNM staging.

Results

Overall, 3,595 patients met inclusion criteria. The 8^th edition staging was not able to significantly discriminate between patients with ypT1- and ypT2-, ypT3- and ypT4-, ypN2- and ypN3- disease, respectively. Using the modified staging, we found that patients with ypT0–2 [hazard ratio (HR) =1.232; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.053–1.441] and ypT3–4 (HR =1.257; 95% CI: 1.136–1.390) with grade III + IV had a significant risk of death compared to those with grade I + II. As was the case for the ypN0 (HR =1.295; 95% CI: 1.073–1.562) group with middle and upper tumor locations compared to those with low tumor location. The modified staging possessed better homogeneity in terms of the chi-square likelihood ratio (143.443 vs. 102.044), Akaike information criterion (AIC) (32,683.716 vs. 32,719.115), and Schwarz’s Bayesian criterion (SBC) (32,723.496 vs. 32,741.847), as well as better discriminatory ability (C-index of 0.577 vs. 0.560, P=0.045) compared to the 8^th edition staging.

Conclusions

Although the modified ypTNM staging system we created by incorporating tumor grade and location to the original T and N displayed certain prognosis prediction accuracy compared with the 8^th edition ypTNM staging, a larger sample size and prospective studies are needed to explore.

Comparison of prognostic factors of esophageal cancer between a Chinese cohort and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Esophageal cancer is a highly aggressive, early metastasis gastrointestinal malignancy, with geographic differences in prognosis. It is unknown whether there are differences in the survival in different regions among esophageal cancer patients who underwent the treatments. This study was to explore the influencing factors of esophageal cancer survival in patients from China and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Methods

The retrospective cohort study were conducted with 605 Chinese esophageal cancer patients in the Wuxi People's Hospital and 2,351 patients from the SEER database. The demographic and clinical data were collected from the two cohort, respectively. The outcome was the death during the follow-up. The follow-up ended on November 30, 2021. The Cox proportional hazards model was used in the univariate and multivariate survival analyses, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

In group one, the following were identified as the prognostic factors: female gender (HR =0.568; 95% CI: 0.398-0.811), T3 and T4 stages (HR =3.312; 95% CI: 2.493-4.401), N2 and N3 stages (HR =3.562; 95% CI: 2.631-4.824), and other subtypes of cancer (HR =0.393; 95% CI: 0.223-0.693). The following prognostic were factors identified in group two: age ≥65 years (HR =1.16; 95% CI: 1.058-1.276), female gender (HR =0.843; 95% CI: 0.752-0.945), T3 and T4 stages (HR =1.523; 95% CI: 1.373-1.690), M1 stage (HR =2.554; 95% CI: 2.303-2.832), treatment with surgery and chemotherapy (HR =0.507; 95% CI: 0.457-0.562), and other subtypes of cancer (HR =1.432; 95% CI: 1.298-1.581).

Conclusions

There may be some differences in prognostic factors between Chinese and American patients with esophageal cancer. It is indicated that different management strategies of esophageal cancer should be considered in different populations to improve the prognosis of patients.

Incidence and survival outcomes of secondary liver cancer: a Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database analysis

Background

The global incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer, which is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, are increasing. However, information on its epidemiology and clinical prognosis is limited. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiology and prognostic factors of secondary liver cancer to aid in the pretreatment evaluation of the disease.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with secondary liver cancer between 2010 and 2014 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively included. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed to screen for significant factors associated with secondary liver cancer.

Results

A total of 85,738 secondary liver cancer patients were identified; in this population, the first primary site was the lung (25.9%), followed by the colorectum, pancreas, stomach, breast, and cecum. Patients with primary tumors of the colorectum, cecum and breast had longer median survival time. Advanced age, male gender, black race, poor differentiation or lack of differentiation, regional lymph node metastases, and presence of distant metastasis were associated with poor prognosis.

Conclusions

In this study, novel findings on the role of the primary site and synchronous distant metastasis to specific organs in patients with secondary liver cancer were described. These findings have significant implications in clinical diagnosis and treatment, and provide a better understanding of secondary liver cancer in the general population.

Application of machine learning approaches to predict the 5-year survival status of patients with esophageal cancer

Background

Accurate prognostic estimation for esophageal cancer (EC) patients plays an important role in the process of clinical decision-making. The objective of this study was to develop an effective model to predict the 5-year survival status of EC patients using machine learning (ML) algorithms.

Methods

We retrieved the information of patients diagnosed with EC between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, including 24 features. A total of 8 ML models were applied to the selected dataset to classify the EC patients in terms of 5-year survival status, including 3 newly developed gradient boosting models (GBM), XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM, 2 commonly used tree-based models, gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) and random forest (RF), and 3 other ML models, artificial neural networks (ANN), naive Bayes (NB), and support vector machines (SVM). A 5-fold cross-validation was used in model performance measurement.

Results

After excluding records with missing data, the final study population comprised 10,588 patients. Feature selection was conducted based on the χ² test, however, the experiment results showed that the complete dataset provided better prediction of outcomes than the dataset with removal of non-significant features. Among the 8 models, XGBoost had the best performance [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC): 0.852 for XGBoost, 0.849 for CatBoost, 0.850 for LightGBM, 0.846 for GBDT, 0.838 for RF, 0.844 for ANN, 0.833 for NB, and 0.789 for SVM]. The accuracy and logistic loss of XGBoost were 0.875 and 0.301, respectively, which were also the best performances. In the XGBoost model, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value was calculated and the result indicated that the four features: reason no cancer-directed surgery, Surg Prim Site, age, and stage group had the greatest impact on predicting the outcomes.

Conclusions

The XGBoost model and the complete dataset can be used to construct an accurate prognostic model for patients diagnosed with EC which may be applicable in clinical practice in the future.

Breast-conserving in centrally located breast cancer patients confirmed safe by SEER based study

BACKGROUND

Due to the lack of high-level data, there is still controversy over the oncological safety of breast conservation in patients with centrally located breast cancer. This study aimed to assess the safety of breast-conserving surgery in patients with centrally located breast cancer based on the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

We collected data for all cases diagnosed with breast cancer who underwent breast-conserving surgery from 2012-2014 in the SEER database. The primary outcome of our study was disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS). The PSM was used to eliminate the effects of non-random statistics. Chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model on univariate and multivariate analysis were used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

Data from 79,214 patients who had undergone breast-conserving surgery were analyzed in this study, including those with breast cancer in the central region (n=3,128) and outside the central region (n=76,086). The DSS of central breast cancer patients and outside the central breast cancer patients was 58.1 months versus 58.0 months (P>0.05), respectively, while the OS of the 2 groups was 58.0 months versus 58.0 months (P>0.05), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Breast cancer in the central region should not be contraindicated for breast conserving surgery and breast-conserving surgery can benefit a wider range of patients.

Sex disparities in thyroid cancer: a SEER population study

BACKGROUND

The incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer vary based on race as well as gender. Both gender thyroid cancer patients give variable clinical characteristics, such as tumor size and distant metastasis. However, sex differences in the prognosis of thyroid cancer remain controversial. Therefore, the present study explored the relationship between gender and prognosis of patients with thyroid cancer for conducive personalized treatment.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was carried out on patients with pathologically proven thyroid cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The gender disparities in the prognosis of different cohorts, derived by propensity score matching were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Among the studied 41,270 female and 13,188 males with thyroid cancer, gender was an independent prognostic factor for overall (OS) and cancer-specific (CSS) survival (HR =1.632, 95% CI: 1.499-1.777, P<0.001; HR =1.473, 95% CI: 1.245-1.741, P<0.001). Though, male patients had a larger tumor size (17.4 vs. 23.5 cm) and a larger proportion of metastasis [lymph nodes (LNs): 33.2% vs. 21.0%; distant: 2.3% vs. 0.9%], female had a higher incidence and earlier age diagnosis with thyroid cancer (48.0 vs. 52.5 years old). Survival Time (in months) of male patients was also significantly lower than female patients (72.4 vs. 76.8 months). In the Kaplan-Meier curves of cohorts derived by propensity score matching, OS and CSS declined much sharply for male (P<0.001). The mean number (2.0 vs. 4.0) and mean ratio (0.192 vs. 0.297) of positive nodes supported worse prognosis for male patients. Whereas factors including race, age, surgery, histology recodes, T, N, M stage and combined summary stage affected the CSS of male and female patients, however plus median income had an extra impact on male population (≥$55,000 vs. <$55,000: HR =0.739, 95% CI: 0.574-0.953, P=0.020).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that male patients had a prognostic factor for poorer OS and CSS. Other factors including race, age, income, histological type, surgery, T, N, M stage influenced OS of male and female thyroid cancer patients. Interestingly, race had no impact on CSS of thyroid cancer patients, whereas median income affected only the male patients CSS.

Pattern of distant metastases and predictive nomograms in colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma: a SEER analysis

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the metastatic patterns and explored the prognostic value of distant metastasis pattern in patients with metastatic colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2015, newly diagnosed colorectal MC patients were selected using the SEER database. Patient prognosis was compared based on the clinicopathological parameters, treatment method, and the site and number of metastatic organs. Cox analyses were used to identify factors associated with overall survival (OS). A nomogram was built to predict the patient's survival. Harrell's concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves were used to analyze the discriminative ability of the prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Of 3,088 patients diagnosed with colorectal MC, the liver was the only metastatic organ in 78.4% (997/1,271) of all liver metastasis cases, the lung was the only metastatic organ in 41.0% (164/400) of all lung metastasis cases, bone was the only metastatic organ in 26.6% (29/109) of all bone metastasis cases, and the brain was the only metastatic organ in 23.5% (4/17) of all brain metastasis cases. Compared with the untreated cases, those treated with chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy had better OS (P<0.001). There were marked OS differences (P<0.001) between patients with and without liver and bone metastases. Patients with bone metastasis had the best survival, while those with brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Patients with one metastatic site had better prognosis compared to those with two or three (P<0.001). Patients with liver metastasis had the best survival, while those with bone and brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age <65 years, non-black race, grade I, N0 stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, liver metastasis, and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival probability. The c-index value was up to 0.745. The calibration plot showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

Metastatic MC (mMC) patients had a characteristic distant metastasis pattern. This study constructed a new and sufficiently accurate prognostic model of mMC based on population-based data. These findings can be utilized to predict prognosis and guide mMC patient management.

Effects of radical cystectomy, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy on the risk of long-term heart-specific death in bladder cancer patients

Background

At present, the low risk of bladder cancer (BCa)-specific death has allowed for investigation into treatment-related cardiotoxicity. To aid clinicians in selecting appropriate cardiovascular disease screening strategies and interventions, this study explored the heart-specific mortality and prognostic factors of patients with BCa after radical cystectomy (RC), radiotherapy (RT), or chemotherapy (CT), and compared their long-term heart-specific mortality with that of the general male population.

Methods

We identified three different treatments for BCa patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database: RC, RT, and CT. Patients were included from 2000 to 2012 and followed through 2015. A cumulative mortality curve and competitive risk regression model were applied to evaluate the prognostic factors of heart-specific mortality, and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated.

Results

Of 39,500 men, 30.3%, 18.8%, and 50.9% received RC, RT, and CT, respectively. For patients with a survival period of less than 50 months, tumor-specific death exhibited a rapidly increasing trend, which subsequently flatlined. However, the rates heart-specific mortality and other causes exhibited a tendency to increase stably. The heart-specific and all-cause mortality rates of patients in any age group treated with the three abovementioned strategies were higher than those of the general population. The heart-specific mortality of patients with carcinoma in situ treated with RC and CT exceeded their all-cause mortality, while that of other tumor stages did not. The risks of heart-specific [sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) =1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22–1.57] and tumor-specific (SHR =1.68; 95% CI: 1.60–1.77) deaths in patients who received RT were higher than those of patients who underwent CT.

Conclusions

The risks of heart-specific and tumor-specific deaths in patients who received RT were higher than those of the RC and CT groups, especially in patients over 65 years of age who received RT.

Prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term survival in bronchopulmonary carcinoid tumor patients receiving resection

Background

We analyzed bronchopulmonary carcinoid tumor (BPC) patients receiving resection from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify the predictive factors of their survival. Then, we developed and validated nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in BPC patients.

Methods

BPC patients registered in the SEER database were included. They were divided into a training set and an internal validation set (7:3). BPC patients from our center were included as an external validation set. Independent prognostic factors identified by a Cox regression model in the training set were used to construct nomograms to predict survival. Discrimination and calibration plots were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomograms. The nomograms were evaluated in both the internal and the external validation datasets.

Results

Age, pathological type, and N stage were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS and CSS by Cox analyses (all P<0.05). Tumor size ≥2.5 cm (P=0.045) was an independent factor for unfavorable CSS. Based on these variables, nomograms were constructed. All concordance indexes of the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set indicated that the nomograms had the preferable discriminatory ability. The calibration plots for predictions of the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS were in excellent agreement.

Conclusions

Age, pathological type, N stage, and tumor size were independent predictive factors of prognosis in BPC patients receiving resection. These nomograms could serve as effective and accurate tools for the prognostic evaluation of patients with BPCs.

Evaluating anthracycline + taxane versus taxane-based chemotherapy in older women with node-negative triple-negative breast cancer: a SEER-Medicare study

Purpose

Adjuvant chemotherapy reduces recurrence in early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). However, data are lacking evaluating anthracycline + taxane (ATAX) versus taxane-based (TAX) chemotherapy in older women with node-negative TNBC, as they are often excluded from trials. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of adjuvant ATAX versus TAX on cancer-specific (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in older patients with node-negative TNBC.

Patients and methods

Using the SEER-Medicare database, we selected patients aged ≥ 66 years diagnosed with Stage T1-4N0M0 TNBC between 2010 and 2015 (N = 3348). Kaplan–Meier survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate 3-year OS and CSS. Multivariant Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent factors associated with use of ATAX compared to TAX.

Results

Approximately half (N = 1679) of patients identified received chemotherapy and of these, 58.6% (N = 984) received TAX, 25.0% (N = 420) received ATAX, and 16.4% (N = 275) received another regimen. Three-year CSS and OS was improved with any adjuvant chemotherapy from 88.9 to 92.2% (p = 0.0018) for CSS and 77.2% to 88.6% for OS (p < 0.0001). In contrast, treatment with ATAX compared to TAX was associated with inferior 3-year CSS and OS. Three-year CSS was 93.7% with TAX compared to 89.8% (p = 0.048) for ATAX and OS was 91.0% for TAX and 86.4% for ATAX (p = 0.032).

Conclusion

While adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved clinical outcomes, the administration of ATAX compared to TAX was associated with inferior 3-year OS and CSS in older women with node-negative TNBC. The use of adjuvant ATAX should be considered carefully in this patient population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10549-021-06424-z.

Nomograms-based prediction of overall and cancer-specific survivals for patients diagnosed with major salivary gland carcinoma

Background

Major salivary glands carcinoma (MSGC) is a relatively rare cancer with diverse histological types and biological behavior. The treatment planning and prognosis prediction are challenging for clinicians. The aim of the current study was to establish a reliable and effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for MSGC patients.

Methods

Patients pathologically diagnosed with MSGC were recruited from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly divided into training and validation groups (7:3 ratio). Univariate, multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were adopted for the selection of risk factors. Nomograms were developed using R software. The model performance was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC), overtime C-index curves, and calibration curves. Harrell C-index, areas under the curves (AUC), and Brier score were also calculated. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to measure the net clinical benefit.

Results

A total of 11,362 patients were identified and divided into training (n=7,953) and validation (n=3,409) dataset. Sex, age, race, marital status, site, differentiation grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, T/N/M stage, tumor size, surgery, and histological type were incorporated into the Cox hazard model for OS prediction after variable selection, while all predictors, except for marital status and site, were selected for CSS prediction. For 5-year prediction, the AUC of the nomogram for OS and CSS was 83.5 and 82.7 in the training and validation dataset, respectively. The C-index was 0.787 for OS and 0.798 for CSS in the validation group. The Brier score was 0.0153 and 0.0130 for OS and CSS, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the nomogram had well prediction accuracy. From the perspective of DCA, a nomogram was superior to the AJCC stage and TNM stage in net benefit. In general, the performance of the nomogram was consistently better compared to the AJCC stage and TNM stage across all settings.

Conclusions

The performance of the novel nomogram for predicting OS and CSS of MSGC patients was further verified, revealing that it could be used as a valuable tool in assisting clinical decision-making.

The impact of liver fibrosis on microvascular invasion and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma with a solitary nodule: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database analysis

Background

The pathogenesis of non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a high recurrence remains controversial, while microvascular invasion (MVI) is highly suggestive of tumor recurrence. This study aimed to investigate the effects of liver fibrosis on MVI and prognosis in HCC.

Methods

Based on the data of HCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database [2004–2015], multivariate logistic regression was used for correlation analysis. Survival was analyzed by Log-Rank test and Cox regression, and decision curve analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves were established to evaluate alternative diagnostic and prognostic strategies.

Results

The study included 1,492 patients with MVI (17.8%) or without MVI (82.2%) for HCC with a solitary nodule. Liver fibrosis was significantly correlated with the occurrence of MVI, and the risk of MVI in patients with a fibrosis score F5–6 was lower than in those with a score of F0–4 (OR =0.651, 95% CI: 0.492–0.860). Combining liver fibrosis could improve the prediction performance of MVI risk models, but liver fibrosis was less associated with survival outcomes in comparison with other tumor characteristics.

Conclusions

Lower liver fibrosis correlated with a higher risk of MVI in HCC with a solitary nodule and was a good indicator for improving the performance of MVI risk models. However, it was not a prognostic sensitive indicator.

Metastatic patterns and prognosis of young lung cancer patients: a population-based study by age

Background

We aimed to examine the different metastatic patterns and corresponding survival outcomes between all ages of young (aged <60 years) and elderly lung cancer patients.

Methods

Lung cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015 were divided into a young and elderly group. The young group was subdivided into four consecutive subgroups. Baseline characteristics were analyzed by the Chi-square test. Survival differences were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Of the total 200,362 lung cancer patients, 155,348 were elderly patients and 45,014 were young patients, including 3,461 aged <45 years, 5,697 aged 45–49 years, 13,645 aged 50–54 years, and 22,211 aged 55–59 years. Compared with elderly lung cancer patients, extrathoracic metastases were significantly more frequent in each younger group, irrespective of the site and number of extrathoracic metastatic organs. Regardless of metastasis patterns, young ages were independent prognostic factors of lung cancer-specific survival (LCSS) [<45 years: hazard ratio (HR): 0.70; 45–49 years: HR: 0.87; 50–54 years: HR: 0.90; 55–59 years: HR: 0.93, all P values were <0.001]. In each age subgroup, patients with multi-organ extrathoracic metastasis had the worst LCSS.

Conclusions

Young lung cancer patients across all ages were at increased risk of extrathoracic metastasis, especially multi-organ patterns, but had a reduced risk of lung cancer-related death compared to elderly patients. Regular and meticulous monitoring of potential metastasized organs is required in young lung cancer patients throughout the follow-up period.

Survival outcomes for cancer types with the highest death rates for adolescents and young adults, 1975-2016

BACKGROUND

Five-year relative survival for adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients with cancer diagnosed at the ages of 15 to 39 years is 85%. Survival rates vary considerably according to the cancer type. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term survival trends for cancer types with the highest mortality among AYAs to determine where the greatest burden is and to identify areas for future research.

METHODS

Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry and the National Center for Health Statistics, the authors examined the incidence, mortality, and survival for the 9 cancer types with the highest mortality rates in this age group from 1975 to 2016. JPSurv, new survival trend software, was used in the analysis.

RESULTS

Results suggested significant improvements in 5-year relative survival for brain and other nervous system tumors, colon and rectum cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (all P values < .05). Limited or no improvement in survival was found for female breast cancer, cervical cancer, ovarian cancer, and bone and joint sarcomas.

CONCLUSIONS

Five-year relative survival for multiple cancer types in AYAs has improved, but some common cancer types in this group still show limited survival improvements (eg, ovarian cancer). Survival improvements in colorectal cancer have been overshadowed by its rising incidence, which suggests a substantial disease burden. Future research should focus on female breast, bone, ovarian, and cervical cancers, which have seen minimal or no improvements in survival.

LAY SUMMARY

Survival trends for adolescents and young adults with cancer are presented from a 40-year period. Although survival progress is noted for brain cancer, lung cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and colon and rectum cancer, the incidence of colon and rectum cancer remains high. Minimal progress is evident for female breast, bone, ovarian, and cervical cancers, which are in need of renewed focus.

Survival outcomes for patients with four treatments in stages I-III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a SEER analysis

Background

Esophageal cancer (EC) is globally acknowledged as one of the most common malignancies among all gastrointestinal cancers. Furthermore, in Eastern Asia, squamous cell carcinoma is the main pathological type of EC. There are different treatments for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), but there is still a lack of large-sample analysis of prognosis among different treatments, especially for different tumor stages. The analysis of the prognosis of ESCC patients with different treatments may be helpful to choose the treatment methods for different stages ESCC.

Methods

A total of 3,346 patients with pathological ESCC between 1976 and 2016 were derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All clinical factors associated with prognosis were collected and analyzed to achieve the difference of prognosis among different treatments in ESCC patients, such as ages, sex, race, tumor grade, anatomic location and so on. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analysis were used to compare survival of different treatments in ESCC patients with stage I–III.

Results

The overall survival (OS) in all ESCC patients who had received surgery and surgery plus radiation therapy or/and chemotherapy are superior than that had not received any treatments and radiation therapy or/and chemotherapy. The OS in ESCC patients with stage I who had received surgery and surgery plus radiation therapy or/and chemotherapy are superior than that had not received any treatments and radiation therapy or/and chemotherapy. The OS in ESCC patients with stage II/III who had received surgery and surgery plus radiation therapy or/and chemotherapy are superior than that in other groups. Age, race and grade as an independent predictive factor for survival (P<0.05). A nomogram model was constructed to show surgery group had better 1-, 3- and 5-year OS than radiation therapy or/and chemotherapy group (OS: 78.5% vs. 59.2%, 37.9% vs. 18.4%, 16.9% vs. 6.1%).

Conclusions

Surgery is still the first choice for all ESCC patients with stage I–III. Radiotherapy and chemotherapy could improve the survival rate in ESCC patients with stage II–III who have received surgery.

A nomogram for predicting brain metastasis in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer

Background

Brain metastasis (BM) is a very serious event in patients with breast cancer. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram to predict the risk of BM in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer.

Methods

We gathered female patients diagnosed with de novo stage IV breast cancer between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. After randomly allocating the patients to the training set and verification set, we used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to analyze the relationship between BM and clinicopathological features. Finally, we developed a nomogram which was validated by the analysis of calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results

Of 7,154 patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer, 422 developed BM. Age, tumor size, subtype, and the degree of lung involvement were significantly correlated with BM. The nomogram had discriminatory ability with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.640 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.607 to 0.673] in the training set, and 0.644 (95% CI: 0.595 to 0.693) in the validation set.

Conclusions

Our study developed a nomogram to predict BM for de novo stage IV breast cancer, thus helping clinicians to identify patients at high-risk of BM and implement early preventive interventions to improve their prognoses.

Association of race and health care system with disease stage and survival in veterans with larynx cancer

BACKGROUND

Black patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) historically have inferior outcomes in comparison with White patients. The authors investigated these racial disparities within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), an equal-access system, and within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, which is representative of the US hybrid-payer system.

METHODS

Patients with invasive (T1 or greater) LSCC were included from SEER (2004-2015) and the VHA (2000-2017). The primary outcomes of overall survival (OS) and larynx cancer-specific survival (LCS) were evaluated in Cox and Fine-Gray models.

RESULTS

In the SEER cohort (7122 patients: 82.6% White and 17.4% Black), Black patients were more likely to present with advanced disease and had inferior OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.26-1.50; P < .0001) in a multivariable analysis. Black LCS was worse in a univariable analysis (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.27-1.58; P < .0001), but this effect was attenuated by 83% when the authors controlled for the TNM category and was found to be insignificant in a multivariable analysis (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.93-1.18; P = .42). In the VHA cohort (9248 patients: 79.7% White and 20.3% Black), the 2 racial cohorts presented with similar tumor characteristics and similar OS (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.89-1.02; P = .14). Black LCS was similar in univariable (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.22; P = .05) and multivariable analyses (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.92-1.14; P = .67).

CONCLUSIONS

Black patients with LSCC had a tumor burden at diagnosis and survival outcomes comparable to those of White patients within the VHA; this was counter to what was observed in the SEER analysis and prior national trends. This study's findings point toward the notable role of health care access in contributing to racial health disparities in the realm of larynx cancer.

Differential prognostic implications of gastric adenocarcinoma based on Lauren's classification: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-based cohort study

Background

Our study aims to analyze the association between Lauren's classification and gastric adenocarcinoma prognosis using comprehensive statistical analyses.

Methods

According to the selection criteria, patients were included from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression, propensity score matching, and a multivariate competing risk model were used to investigate the association between Lauren's classification and prognosis. Subgroup analysis was used to investigate the role of confounding factors on the association between Lauren types and prognosis.

Results

After exclusion, a total of 20,218 patients from the SEER database were included, with 14,374 intestinal types and 5,844 diffuse types. The univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the diffuse type had a poorer cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate [hazard ratio (HR), 1.44; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.38-1.50]. After adjusting for confounding variables, the diffuse type also showed a higher risk of cancer-specific death (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.15-1.20). Sensitivity analysis showed that after propensity score matching, the diffuse type had a poorer CSS rate (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10-1.36), and the competing risk model further validated these results [subdistribution HR (SHR), 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.41]. Moreover, subgroup analysis demonstrated stable results in the subgroups, except for patients with T1 stage (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.87-1.28) and a tumor size <2 cm (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83-1.21).

Conclusions

Diffuse-type gastric adenocarcinoma had an overall poorer prognosis compared to the intestinal type. However, in patients with T1 stage and tumor size <2 cm, the diffuse type had a comparable survival rate with the intestinal type.

Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis of Patients With Pulmonary Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma: A SEER-Based Analysis

Background

Primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinoma (PMEC) is an extremely rare malignancy. Its clinical characteristics and prognosis are not fully understood. This study evaluated clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of PMEC and established a nomogram to predict its 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates.

Methods

In the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016, patients pathologically diagnosed with PMEC were identified. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression were performed to evaluate the CSS stratified by different covariates. A predictive nomogram model was built and validated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.

Results

A total of 585 PMEC patients were identified. A total of 408 (70%) of patients were placed into the training cohort, and 177 (30%) patients were placed into the validation cohort. The 5- and 10-year CSS rates of stage I-II PMEC patients were 91.4 and 88.9, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year CSS rates of stage III-IV PMEC were 56.5, 39.45, and 32.1%, respectively. Survival curves showed that older age, large tumor size, poor differentiation, and high TNM stage were associated with a significantly worse prognosis. CSS outcomes were significantly better in patients who received surgical treatments (surgical alone, surgery plus radiation and/or chemotherapy). Patients who received radiation and/or chemotherapy had the worst prognosis. Multivariate Cox results revealed that covariates, including age, tumor laterality, tumor sizes, pathological differentiation, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, TNM stage and therapy, were independent prognostic factors for PMEC. These factors were used to construct a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.921. The calibration curve presented favorable consistency between the predicted CSS and actual observations. This nomogram was validated by the validation cohort. The C-index of the validation cohort was 0.968.

Conclusion

Age, bilateral tumors, tumor size, pathological differentiation grade, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, TNM stage and therapy were independent prognostic factors of PMEC patients. The first nomogram for predicting the CSS of PMEC was built and validated, showing its potential value in practice.