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Chen J, Lu G, Wang Z, Zhang J, Ding J, Zeng Q, Chai L, Zhao L, Yu H, Li Y. Prediction Models for Dysphagia in Intensive Care Unit after Mechanical Ventilation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Laryngoscope 2024; 134:517-525. [PMID: 37543979 DOI: 10.1002/lary.30931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2023] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Dysphagia is a common condition that can independently lead to death in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), particularly those who require mechanical ventilation. Despite extensive research on the predictors of dysphagia development, consistency across these studies is lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to identify predictors and summarize existing prediction models for dysphagia in ICU patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation. METHODS We searched five databases: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Studies that developed a post-extubation dysphagia risk prediction model in ICU were included. A meta-analysis of individual predictor variables was performed with mixed-effects models. The risk of bias was assessed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). RESULTS After screening 1,923 references, we ultimately included nine studies in our analysis. The most commonly identified risk predictors included in the final risk prediction model were the length of indwelling endotracheal tube ≥72 h, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score ≥15, age ≥65 years, and duration of gastric tube ≥72 h. However, PROBAST analysis revealed a high risk of bias in the performance of these prediction models, mainly because of the lack of external validation, inadequate pre-screening of variables, and improper treatment of continuous and categorical predictors. CONCLUSIONS These models are particularly susceptible to bias because of numerous limitations in their development and inadequate external validation. Future research should focus on externally validating the existing model in ICU patients with varying characteristics. Moreover, assessing the acceptance and effectiveness of the model in clinical practice is needed. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE NA Laryngoscope, 134:517-525, 2024.
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Li E, Ai F, Liang C. A machine learning model to predict the risk of depression in US adults with obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome: a cross-sectional study. Front Public Health 2024; 11:1348803. [PMID: 38259742 PMCID: PMC10800603 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1348803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective Depression is very common and harmful in patients with obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS). It is necessary to screen OSAHS patients for depression early. However, there are no validated tools to assess the likelihood of depression in patients with OSAHS. This study used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database and machine learning (ML) methods to construct a risk prediction model for depression, aiming to predict the probability of depression in the OSAHS population. Relevant features were analyzed and a nomogram was drawn to visually predict and easily estimate the risk of depression according to the best performing model. Study design This is a cross-sectional study. Methods Data from three cycles (2005-2006, 2007-2008, and 2015-2016) were selected from the NHANES database, and 16 influencing factors were screened and included. Three prediction models were established by the logistic regression algorithm, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, and random forest algorithm, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess evaluate and compare the different ML models. Results The logistic regression model had lower sensitivity than the lasso model, while the specificity and AUC area were higher than the random forest and lasso models. Moreover, when the threshold probability range was 0.19-0.25 and 0.45-0.82, the net benefit of the logistic regression model was the largest. The logistic regression model clarified the factors contributing to depression, including gender, general health condition, body mass index (BMI), smoking, OSAHS severity, age, education level, ratio of family income to poverty (PIR), and asthma. Conclusion This study developed three machine learning (ML) models (logistic regression model, lasso model, and random forest model) using the NHANES database to predict depression and identify influencing factors among OSAHS patients. Among them, the logistic regression model was superior to the lasso and random forest models in overall prediction performance. By drawing the nomogram and applying it to the sleep testing center or sleep clinic, sleep technicians and medical staff can quickly and easily identify whether OSAHS patients have depression to carry out the necessary referral and psychological treatment.
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Fonseca DC, Marques Gomes da Rocha I, Depieri Balmant B, Callado L, Aguiar Prudêncio AP, Tepedino Martins Alves J, Torrinhas RS, da Rocha Fernandes G, Linetzky Waitzberg D. Evaluation of gut microbiota predictive potential associated with phenotypic characteristics to identify multifactorial diseases. Gut Microbes 2024; 16:2297815. [PMID: 38235595 PMCID: PMC10798365 DOI: 10.1080/19490976.2023.2297815] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2024] Open
Abstract
Gut microbiota has been implicated in various clinical conditions, yet the substantial heterogeneity in gut microbiota research results necessitates a more sophisticated approach than merely identifying statistically different microbial taxa between healthy and unhealthy individuals. Our study seeks to not only select microbial taxa but also explore their synergy with phenotypic host variables to develop novel predictive models for specific clinical conditions. DESIGN We assessed 50 healthy and 152 unhealthy individuals for phenotypic variables (PV) and gut microbiota (GM) composition by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The entire modeling process was conducted in the R environment using the Random Forest algorithm. Model performance was assessed through ROC curve construction. RESULTS We evaluated 52 bacterial taxa and pre-selected PV (p < 0.05) for their contribution to the final models. Across all diseases, the models achieved their best performance when GM and PV data were integrated. Notably, the integrated predictive models demonstrated exceptional performance for rheumatoid arthritis (AUC = 88.03%), type 2 diabetes (AUC = 96.96%), systemic lupus erythematosus (AUC = 98.4%), and type 1 diabetes (AUC = 86.19%). CONCLUSION Our findings underscore that the selection of bacterial taxa based solely on differences in relative abundance between groups is insufficient to serve as clinical markers. Machine learning techniques are essential for mitigating the considerable variability observed within gut microbiota. In our study, the use of microbial taxa alone exhibited limited predictive power for health outcomes, while the integration of phenotypic variables into predictive models substantially enhanced their predictive capabilities.
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Oldham MA, Heaney B, Gleber C, Lee HB, Maeng DD. Using Discrete Form Data in the Electronic Medical Record to Predict the Likelihood of Psychiatric Consultation. J Acad Consult Liaison Psychiatry 2024; 65:25-32. [PMID: 37858756 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaclp.2023.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2023] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Manually screening for mental health needs in acute medical-surgical settings is thorough but time-intensive. Automated approaches to screening can enhance efficiency and reliability, but the predictive accuracy of automated screening remains largely unknown. OBJECTIVE The aims of this project are to develop an automated screening list using discrete form data in the electronic medical record that identify medical inpatients with psychiatric needs and to evaluate its ability to predict the likelihood of psychiatric consultation. METHODS An automated screening list was incorporated into an existing manual screening process for 1 year. Screening items were applied to the year's implementation data to determine whether they predicted consultation likelihood. Consultation likelihood was designated high, medium, or low. This prediction model was applied hospital-wide to characterize mental health needs. RESULTS The screening items were derived from nursing screens, orders, and medication and diagnosis groupers. We excluded safety or suicide sitters from the model because all patients with sitters received psychiatric consultation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the regression model was 84%. The two most predictive items in the model were "3 or more psychiatric diagnoses" (odds ratio 15.7) and "prior suicide attempt" (odds ratio 4.7). The low likelihood category had a negative predictive value of 97.2%; the high likelihood category had a positive predictive value of 46.7%. CONCLUSIONS Electronic medical record discrete data elements predict the likelihood of psychiatric consultation. Automated approaches to screening deserve further investigation.
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Che Nawi CMNH, Mohd Hairon S, Wan Yahya WNN, Wan Zaidi WA, Musa KI. Machine Learning Models for Predicting Stroke Mortality in Malaysia: An Application and Comparative Analysis. Cureus 2023; 15:e50426. [PMID: 38222138 PMCID: PMC10784718 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.50426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Stroke is a significant public health concern characterized by increasing mortality and morbidity. Accurate long-term outcome prediction for acute stroke patients, particularly stroke mortality, is vital for clinical decision-making and prognostic management. This study aimed to develop and compare various prognostic models for stroke mortality prediction. Methods In a retrospective cohort study from January 2016 to December 2021, we collected data from patients diagnosed with acute stroke from five selected hospitals. Data contained variables on demographics, comorbidities, and interventions retrieved from medical records. The cohort comprised 950 patients with 20 features. Outcomes (censored vs. death) were determined by linking data with the Malaysian National Mortality Registry. We employed three common survival modeling approaches, the Cox proportional hazard regression (Cox), support vector machine (SVM), and random survival forest (RSF), while enhancing the Cox model with Elastic Net (Cox-EN) for feature selection. Models were compared using the concordance index (C-index), time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), and discrimination index (D-index), with calibration assessed by the Brier score. Results The support vector machine (SVM) model excelled among the four, with three-month, one-year, and three-year time-dependent AUC values of 0.842, 0.846, and 0.791; a D-index of 5.31 (95% CI: 3.86, 7.30); and a C-index of 0.803 (95% CI: 0.758, 0.847). All models exhibited robust calibration, with three-month, one-year, and three-year Brier scores ranging from 0.103 to 0.220, all below 0.25. Conclusion The support vector machine (SVM) model demonstrated superior discriminative performance, suggesting its efficacy in developing prognostic models for stroke mortality. This study enhances stroke mortality prediction and supports clinical decision-making, emphasizing the utility of the support vector machine method.
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Leaks K, Norden-Krichmar T, Brody JP. Predicting moderate drinking behaviors in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants using biochemical and demographical factors with machine learning. Alcohol 2023; 113:1-10. [PMID: 37543050 DOI: 10.1016/j.alcohol.2023.07.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2023] [Revised: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 08/07/2023]
Abstract
Recent studies revealed that any amount of alcohol consumption is an overall health detriment to multiple populations, contrary to popular beliefs. In addition, very few alcohol use studies utilized machine learning methods to compare the biological health of moderate drinkers compared to those that abstain from alcohol consumption, opting instead to focus on binge drinking and heavy drinking. Using participant data of multiple factor types from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we created prediction models with stacked ensembles and gradient boosting models. Machine learning models were used to identify which factors most enabled the prediction of moderate drinking behaviors. Our combined factor runs produced a cross-validation area under the curve (AUC) of 0.929 and a validation area under the curve of 0.806. Runs that only included biochemical or demographical factors received cross-validation AUC values of 0.825 and 0.925, and validation AUC values of 0.757 and 0.783, respectively. The top predictive factors for our machine learning runs, including gamma glutamyl transferase, gender, iron levels, and cigarette and marijuana usage, corroborate past studies that link those factors to alcohol consumption. Our findings identified key differences in the biological health of moderate drinkers compared to those that abstain from drinking. These results reveal a need to further explore the health effects of moderate drinking, especially for vulnerable populations.
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Velmahos CS, Paschalidis A, Paranjape CN. The Not-So-Distant Future or Just Hype? Utilizing Machine Learning to Predict 30-Day Post-Operative Complications in Laparoscopic Colectomy Patients. Am Surg 2023; 89:5648-5654. [PMID: 36992631 DOI: 10.1177/00031348231167397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/31/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Complex machine learning (ML) models have revolutionized predictions in clinical care. However, for laparoscopic colectomy (LC), prediction of morbidity by ML has not been adequately analyzed nor compared against traditional logistic regression (LR) models. METHODS All LC patients, between 2017 and 2019, in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) were identified. A composite outcome of 17 variables defined any post-operative morbidity. Seven of the most common complications were additionally analyzed. Three ML models (Random Forests, XGBoost, and L1-L2-RFE) were compared with LR. RESULTS Random Forests, XGBoost, and L1-L2-RFE predicted 30-day post-operative morbidity with average area under the curve (AUC): .709, .712, and .712, respectively. LR predicted morbidity with AUC = .712. Septic shock was predicted with AUC ≤ .9, by ML and LR. CONCLUSION There was negligible difference in the predictive ability of ML and LR in post-LC morbidity prediction. Possibly, the computational power of ML cannot be realized in limited datasets.
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Gu T, Taylor JM, Mukherjee B. A synthetic data integration framework to leverage external summary-level information from heterogeneous populations. Biometrics 2023; 79:3831-3845. [PMID: 36876883 PMCID: PMC10480346 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2023]
Abstract
There is a growing need for flexible general frameworks that integrate individual-level data with external summary information for improved statistical inference. External information relevant for a risk prediction model may come in multiple forms, through regression coefficient estimates or predicted values of the outcome variable. Different external models may use different sets of predictors and the algorithm they used to predict the outcome Y given these predictors may or may not be known. The underlying populations corresponding to each external model may be different from each other and from the internal study population. Motivated by a prostate cancer risk prediction problem where novel biomarkers are measured only in the internal study, this paper proposes an imputation-based methodology, where the goal is to fit a target regression model with all available predictors in the internal study while utilizing summary information from external models that may have used only a subset of the predictors. The method allows for heterogeneity of covariate effects across the external populations. The proposed approach generates synthetic outcome data in each external population, uses stacked multiple imputation to create a long dataset with complete covariate information. The final analysis of the stacked imputed data is conducted by weighted regression. This flexible and unified approach can improve statistical efficiency of the estimated coefficients in the internal study, improve predictions by utilizing even partial information available from models that use a subset of the full set of covariates used in the internal study, and provide statistical inference for the external population with potentially different covariate effects from the internal population.
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Li Y, Xu G, Zhao W, Wang T, Li H, Liu Y, Wang G. Machine Learning-Based Operational State Recognition and Compressive Property Prediction in Fused Filament Fabrication. 3D PRINTING AND ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING 2023; 10:1347-1360. [PMID: 38116211 PMCID: PMC10726200 DOI: 10.1089/3dp.2021.0185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
3D printing has exhibited significant potential in outer space and medical implants. To use this technology in the specific high-value scenarios, 3D-printed parts need to satisfy quality-related requirements. In this article, the influence of the filament feeder operating states of 3D printer on the compressive properties of 3D-printed parts is studied in the fused filament fabrication process. A machine learning approach, back-propagation neural network with a genetic algorithm (GA-BPNN) optimized by k-fold cross-validation, is proposed to monitor the operating states and predict the compressive properties. Vibration and current sensors are used in situ to monitor the operating states of the filament feeder, and a set of features are extracted and selected from raw sensor data in time and frequency domains. Results show that the operating states of the filament feeder significantly affected the compressive properties of the fabricated samples, the operating states were accurately recognized with 96.3% rate, and compressive properties were successfully predicted by the GA-BPNN. This proposed method has the potential for use in industrial applications after 3D printing without requiring any further quality control.
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Nguyen Ho PT, van Arendonk J, Steketee RME, van Rooij FJA, Roshchupkin GV, Ikram MA, Vernooij MW, Neitzel J. Predicting amyloid-beta pathology in the general population. Alzheimers Dement 2023; 19:5506-5517. [PMID: 37303116 DOI: 10.1002/alz.13161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2022] [Revised: 04/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Reliable models to predict amyloid beta (Aβ) positivity in the general aging population are lacking but could become cost-efficient tools to identify individuals at risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. METHODS We developed Aβ prediction models in the clinical Anti-Amyloid Treatment in Asymptomatic Alzheimer's (A4) Study (n = 4,119) including a broad range of easily ascertainable predictors (demographics, cognition and daily functioning, health and lifestyle factors). Importantly, we determined the generalizability of our models in the population-based Rotterdam Study (n = 500). RESULTS The best performing model in the A4 Study (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.73 [0.69-0.76]), including age, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, family history of dementia, and subjective and objective measures of cognition, walking duration and sleep behavior, was validated in the independent Rotterdam Study with higher accuracy (AUC = 0.85 [0.81-0.89]). Yet, the improvement relative to a model including only age and APOE ε4 was marginal. DISCUSSION Aβ prediction models including inexpensive and non-invasive measures were successfully applied to a general population-derived sample more representative of typical older non-demented adults.
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Li Y, Liu X, Kang L, Li J. Validation and Comparison of Four Mortality Prediction Models in a Geriatric Ward in China. Clin Interv Aging 2023; 18:2009-2019. [PMID: 38053653 PMCID: PMC10695131 DOI: 10.2147/cia.s429769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/18/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose The efficacy of mortality risk prediction models among older patients in China remains uncertain. We aimed to validate and compare the performances of the Walter Index, Geriatric Prognostic Index (GPI), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and FRAIL Scale in predicting 1-year all-cause mortality post-discharge in geriatric inpatients in China. Patients and Methods This study was conducted at a geriatric ward of a tertiary Hospital in Beijing, including patients aged 70 years or older with a documented comprehensive geriatric assessment, discharged between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2021. Patients with a hospital stay ≤24 h or >60 days were excluded. All-cause mortality data within one year of discharge were collected from medical files and telephone interviews between August 2022 and February 2023. Multiple imputation, Logistic regression analysis, Brier scores, C-statistics, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit-test, and calibration plots were employed for statistical analysis. Results We included 832 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 77 (74-82) years. One-hundred patients (12.0%) died within one year. After adjusting for covariates-marital status, social support, cigarette use, length of stay, number of medications, hemoglobin levels, handgrip strength, and Short Physical Performance Battery-CCI scores of 3-4 and >4, and increased Walter Index, GPI, and FRAIL Scale scores were significantly associated with 1-year mortality risk. The Brier scores varied from 0.07 (Walter Index) to 0.10 (FRAIL Scale). The C-statistic ranged from 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.78) for FRAIL Scale to 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.91) for the Walter Index. Calibration curves showed that the Walter Index, GPI, and FRAIL Scale were well calibrated, while the CCI was poor. Conclusion Combining the Brier score, discrimination and calibration, the Walter Index was confirmed for the first time to be the best model to predict the 1-year mortality risk of geriatric inpatients in China among the four models.
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Li L, Cui X, Yang J, Wu X, Zhao G. Using feature optimization and LightGBM algorithm to predict the clinical pregnancy outcomes after in vitro fertilization. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2023; 14:1305473. [PMID: 38093967 PMCID: PMC10716466 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1305473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Background According to a recent report by the WHO, approximately 17.5\% (about one-sixth) of the global adult population is affected by infertility. Consequently, researchers worldwide have proposed various machine learning models to improve the prediction of clinical pregnancy outcomes during IVF cycles. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning(ML) model that predicts the outcomes of pregnancies following in vitro fertilization (IVF) and assists in clinical treatment. Methods This study conducted a retrospective analysis on provincial reproductive centers in China from March 2020 to March 2021, utilizing 13 selected features. The algorithms used included XGBoost, LightGBM, KNN, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, and Decision Tree. The results were evaluated using performance metrics such as precision, recall, F1-score, accuracy and AUC, employing five-fold cross-validation repeated five times. Results Among the models, LightGBM achieved the best performance, with an accuracy of 92.31%, recall of 87.80%, F1-score of 90.00\%, and an AUC of 90.41%. The model identified the estrogen concentration at the HCG injection(etwo), endometrium thickness (mm) on HCG day(EM TNK), years of infertility(Years), and body mass index(BMI) as the most important features. Conclusion This study successfully demonstrates the LightGBM model has the best predictive effect on pregnancy outcomes during IVF cycles. Additionally, etwo was found to be the most significant predictor for successful IVF compared to other variables. This machine learning approach has the potential to assist fertility specialists in providing counseling and adjusting treatment strategies for patients.
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Vestergaard MV, Allin KH, Poulsen GJ, Lee JC, Jess T. Characterizing the pre-clinical phase of inflammatory bowel disease. Cell Rep Med 2023; 4:101263. [PMID: 37939713 PMCID: PMC10694632 DOI: 10.1016/j.xcrm.2023.101263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 07/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the biological changes that precede a diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) could facilitate pre-emptive interventions, including risk factor modification, but this pre-clinical phase of disease remains poorly characterized. Using measurements from 17 hematological and biochemical parameters taken up to 10 years before diagnosis in over 20,000 IBD patients and population controls, we address this at massive scale. We observe widespread significant changes in multiple biochemical and hematological parameters that occur up to 8 years before diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) and up to 3 years before diagnosis of ulcerative colitis. These changes far exceed previous expectations regarding the length of this pre-diagnostic phase, revealing an opportunity for earlier intervention, especially in CD. In summary, using a nationwide, case-control dataset-obtained from the Danish registers-we provide a comprehensive characterization of the hematological and biochemical changes that occur in the pre-clinical phase of IBD.
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van der Ploeg T, Schalk R, Gobbens RJJ. External Validation of Models for Predicting Disability in Community-Dwelling Older People in the Netherlands: A Comparative Study. Clin Interv Aging 2023; 18:1873-1882. [PMID: 38020449 PMCID: PMC10654350 DOI: 10.2147/cia.s428036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Advanced statistical modeling techniques may help predict health outcomes. However, it is not the case that these modeling techniques always outperform traditional techniques such as regression techniques. In this study, external validation was carried out for five modeling strategies for the prediction of the disability of community-dwelling older people in the Netherlands. Methods We analyzed data from five studies consisting of community-dwelling older people in the Netherlands. For the prediction of the total disability score as measured with the Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS), we used fourteen predictors as measured with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI). Both the TFI and the GARS are self-report questionnaires. For the modeling, five statistical modeling techniques were evaluated: general linear model (GLM), support vector machine (SVM), neural net (NN), recursive partitioning (RP), and random forest (RF). Each model was developed on one of the five data sets and then applied to each of the four remaining data sets. We assessed the performance of the models with calibration characteristics, the correlation coefficient, and the root of the mean squared error. Results The models GLM, SVM, RP, and RF showed satisfactory performance characteristics when validated on the validation data sets. All models showed poor performance characteristics for the deviating data set both for development and validation due to the deviating baseline characteristics compared to those of the other data sets. Conclusion The performance of four models (GLM, SVM, RP, RF) on the development data sets was satisfactory. This was also the case for the validation data sets, except when these models were developed on the deviating data set. The NN models showed a much worse performance on the validation data sets than on the development data sets.
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Ahmed AR, Aleid SM, Mohammed M. Impact of Modified Atmosphere Packaging Conditions on Quality of Dates: Experimental Study and Predictive Analysis Using Artificial Neural Networks. Foods 2023; 12:3811. [PMID: 37893704 PMCID: PMC10606818 DOI: 10.3390/foods12203811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Revised: 10/09/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Dates are highly perishable fruits, and maintaining their quality during storage is crucial. The current study aims to investigate the impact of storage conditions on the quality of dates (Khalas and Sukary cultivars) at the Tamer stage and predict their quality attributes during storage using artificial neural networks (ANN). The studied storage conditions were the modified atmosphere packing (MAP) gases (CO2, O2, and N), packaging materials, storage temperature, and storage time, and the evaluated quality attributes were moisture content, firmness, color parameters (L*, a*, b*, and ∆E), pH, water activity, total soluble solids, and microbial contamination. The findings demonstrated that the storage conditions significantly impacted (p < 0.05) the quality of the two stored date cultivars. The use of MAP with 20% CO2 + 80% N had a high potential to decrease the rate of color transformation and microbial growth of dates stored at 4 °C for both stored date cultivars. The developed ANN models efficiently predicted the quality changes of stored dates closely aligned with observed values under the different storage conditions, as evidenced by low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. In addition, the reliability of the developed ANN models was further affirmed by the linear regression between predicted and measured values, which closely follow the 1:1 line, with R2 values ranging from 0.766 to 0.980, the ANN models demonstrate accurate estimating of fruit quality attributes. The study's findings contribute to food quality and supply chain management through the identification of optimal storage conditions and predicting the fruit quality during storage under different atmosphere conditions, thereby minimizing food waste and enhancing food safety.
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Ward R, Obeid JS, Jennings L, Szwast E, Hayes WG, Pipaliya R, Bailey C, Faul S, Polyak B, Baker GH, McCauley JL, Lenert LA. Enhanced phenotypes for identifying opioid overdose in emergency department visit electronic health record data. JAMIA Open 2023; 6:ooad081. [PMID: 38486917 PMCID: PMC10938047 DOI: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooad081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 03/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Accurate identification of opioid overdose (OOD) cases in electronic healthcare record (EHR) data is an important element in surveillance, empirical research, and clinical intervention. We sought to improve existing OOD electronic phenotypes by incorporating new data types beyond diagnostic codes and by applying several statistical and machine learning methods. Materials and Methods We developed an EHR dataset of emergency department visits involving OOD cases or patients considered at risk for an OOD and ascertained true OOD status through manual chart reviews. We developed and validated prediction models using Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Elastic Net models that incorporated 717 features involving primary and second diagnoses, chief complaints, medications prescribed, vital signs, laboratory results, and procedural codes. We also developed models limited to single data types. Results A total of 1718 records involving 1485 patients were manually reviewed; 541 (36.4%) patients had one or more OOD. Prediction performance was similar for all models; sensitivity varied from 94% to 97%; and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 98% for all methods. The primary diagnosis and chief complaint were the most important contributors to AUC performance; primary diagnoses and medication class contributed most to sensitivity; chief complaint, primary diagnosis, and vital signs were most important for specificity. Models limited to decision support data types available in real time demonstrated robust prediction performance. Conclusions Substantial prediction performance improvements were demonstrated for identifying OODs in EHR data. Our e-phenotypes could be applied in surveillance, retrospective empirical applications, or clinical decision support systems.
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Nguyen QTN, Nguyen P, Wang C, Phuc PT, Lin R, Hung C, Kuo N, Cheng Y, Lin S, Hsieh Z, Cheng C, Hsu M, Hsu JC. Machine learning approaches for predicting 5-year breast cancer survival: A multicenter study. Cancer Sci 2023; 114:4063-4072. [PMID: 37489252 PMCID: PMC10551582 DOI: 10.1111/cas.15917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/26/2023] Open
Abstract
The study used clinical data to develop a prediction model for breast cancer survival. Breast cancer prognostic factors were explored using machine learning techniques. We conducted a retrospective study using data from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database, which contains electronic medical records from three affiliated hospitals in Taiwan. The study included female patients aged over 20 years who were diagnosed with primary breast cancer and had medical records in hospitals between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2020. The data were divided into training and external testing datasets. Nine different machine learning algorithms were applied to develop the models. The performances of the algorithms were measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F1-score. A total of 3914 patients were included in the study. The highest AUC of 0.95 was observed with the artificial neural network model (accuracy, 0.90; sensitivity, 0.71; specificity, 0.73; PPV, 0.28; NPV, 0.94; and F1-score, 0.37). Other models showed relatively high AUC, ranging from 0.75 to 0.83. According to the optimal model results, cancer stage, tumor size, diagnosis age, surgery, and body mass index were the most critical factors for predicting breast cancer survival. The study successfully established accurate 5-year survival predictive models for breast cancer. Furthermore, the study found key factors that could affect breast cancer survival in Taiwanese women. Its results might be used as a reference for the clinical practice of breast cancer treatment.
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Ribeiro PR, Gindri M, Macedo Junior GL, Herbster CJL, Pereira ES, Biagioli B, Teixeira IAMA. Modeling Gastrointestinal Tract Wet Pool Size in Small Ruminants. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:2909. [PMID: 37760309 PMCID: PMC10525868 DOI: 10.3390/ani13182909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Revised: 08/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) wet pool size (GITwps) refers to the total amount of wet contents in GIT, which in small ruminants can reach up to 19% of their body weight (BW). This study aimed to develop models to comprehensively predict GITwps in small ruminants using a meta-regression approach. A dataset was created based on 21 studies, comprising 750 individual records of sheep and goats. Various predictor variables, including BW, sex, breed, species, intake level, physiological states, stages and types of pregnancy, dry matter intake, and neutral detergent fiber intake (NDFI), were initially analyzed through simple linear regression. Subsequently, the variables were fitted using natural logarithm transformations, considering the random effect of the study and residual error, employing a supervised forward selection procedure. Overall, no significant relationship between GITwps and BW (p = 0.326) was observed for animals fed a milk-based diet. However, a strong negative linear relationship (p < 0.001) was found for animals on a solid diet, with the level of restriction influencing GITwps only at the intercept. Furthermore, the prediction of GITwps was independent of sex and influenced by species in cases where individuals were fed ad libitum. Pregnant females showed a noticeable reduction in GITwps, which was more pronounced in cases of multiple pregnancies, regardless of species (p < 0.01). The composition of the diet was found to be the primary factor affecting the modulation of GITwps, with NDFI able to override the species effect (p < 0.0001). Overall, this study sheds light on the factors influencing GITwps in small ruminants, providing valuable insights into their digestive processes and nutritional requirements.
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Shiner A, Kiss A, Saednia K, Jerzak KJ, Gandhi S, Lu FI, Emmenegger U, Fleshner L, Lagree A, Alera MA, Bielecki M, Law E, Law B, Kam D, Klein J, Pinard CJ, Shenfield A, Sadeghi-Naini A, Tran WT. Predicting Patterns of Distant Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients following Local Regional Therapy Using Machine Learning. Genes (Basel) 2023; 14:1768. [PMID: 37761908 PMCID: PMC10531341 DOI: 10.3390/genes14091768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2023] [Revised: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/06/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Up to 30% of breast cancer (BC) patients will develop distant metastases (DM), for which there is no cure. Here, statistical and machine learning (ML) models were developed to estimate the risk of site-specific DM following local-regional therapy. This retrospective study cohort included 175 patients diagnosed with invasive BC who later developed DM. Clinicopathological information was collected for analysis. Outcome variables were the first site of metastasis (brain, bone or visceral) and the time interval (months) to developing DM. Multivariate statistical analysis and ML-based multivariable gradient boosting machines identified factors associated with these outcomes. Machine learning models predicted the site of DM, demonstrating an area under the curve of 0.74, 0.75, and 0.73 for brain, bone and visceral sites, respectively. Overall, most patients (57%) developed bone metastases, with increased odds associated with estrogen receptor (ER) positivity. Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) positivity and non-anthracycline chemotherapy regimens were associated with a decreased risk of bone DM, while brain metastasis was associated with ER-negativity. Furthermore, non-anthracycline chemotherapy alone was a significant predictor of visceral metastasis. Here, clinicopathologic and treatment variables used in ML prediction models predict the first site of metastasis in BC. Further validation may guide focused patient-specific surveillance practices.
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Li B, Gatsonis C, Dahabreh IJ, Steingrimsson JA. Estimating the area under the ROC curve when transporting a prediction model to a target population. Biometrics 2023; 79:2382-2393. [PMID: 36385607 PMCID: PMC10188769 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 10/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
We propose methods for estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of a prediction model in a target population that differs from the source population that provided the data used for original model development. If covariates that are associated with model performance, as measured by the AUC, have a different distribution in the source and target populations, then AUC estimators that only use data from the source population will not reflect model performance in the target population. Here, we provide identification results for the AUC in the target population when outcome and covariate data are available from the sample of the source population, but only covariate data are available from the sample of the target population. In this setting, we propose three estimators for the AUC in the target population and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the estimators using simulations and use them to estimate the AUC in a nationally representative target population from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for a lung cancer risk prediction model developed using source population data from the National Lung Screening Trial.
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Klement W, El Emam K. Consolidated Reporting Guidelines for Prognostic and Diagnostic Machine Learning Modeling Studies: Development and Validation. J Med Internet Res 2023; 25:e48763. [PMID: 37651179 PMCID: PMC10502599 DOI: 10.2196/48763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Revised: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 07/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The reporting of machine learning (ML) prognostic and diagnostic modeling studies is often inadequate, making it difficult to understand and replicate such studies. To address this issue, multiple consensus and expert reporting guidelines for ML studies have been published. However, these guidelines cover different parts of the analytics lifecycle, and individually, none of them provide a complete set of reporting requirements. OBJECTIVE We aimed to consolidate the ML reporting guidelines and checklists in the literature to provide reporting items for prognostic and diagnostic ML in in-silico and shadow mode studies. METHODS We conducted a literature search that identified 192 unique peer-reviewed English articles that provide guidance and checklists for reporting ML studies. The articles were screened by their title and abstract against a set of 9 inclusion and exclusion criteria. Articles that were filtered through had their quality evaluated by 2 raters using a 9-point checklist constructed from guideline development good practices. The average κ was 0.71 across all quality criteria. The resulting 17 high-quality source papers were defined as having a quality score equal to or higher than the median. The reporting items in these 17 articles were consolidated and screened against a set of 6 inclusion and exclusion criteria. The resulting reporting items were sent to an external group of 11 ML experts for review and updated accordingly. The updated checklist was used to assess the reporting in 6 recent modeling papers in JMIR AI. Feedback from the external review and initial validation efforts was used to improve the reporting items. RESULTS In total, 37 reporting items were identified and grouped into 5 categories based on the stage of the ML project: defining the study details, defining and collecting the data, modeling methodology, model evaluation, and explainability. None of the 17 source articles covered all the reporting items. The study details and data description reporting items were the most common in the source literature, with explainability and methodology guidance (ie, data preparation and model training) having the least coverage. For instance, a median of 75% of the data description reporting items appeared in each of the 17 high-quality source guidelines, but only a median of 33% of the data explainability reporting items appeared. The highest-quality source articles tended to have more items on reporting study details. Other categories of reporting items were not related to the source article quality. We converted the reporting items into a checklist to support more complete reporting. CONCLUSIONS Our findings supported the need for a set of consolidated reporting items, given that existing high-quality guidelines and checklists do not individually provide complete coverage. The consolidated set of reporting items is expected to improve the quality and reproducibility of ML modeling studies.
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Shi Y, Du Z, Zhang J, Han F, Chen F, Wang D, Liu M, Zhang H, Dong C, Sui S. Construction and evaluation of hourly average indoor PM 2.5 concentration prediction models based on multiple types of places. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1213453. [PMID: 37637795 PMCID: PMC10447970 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1213453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background People usually spend most of their time indoors, so indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are crucial for refining individual PM2.5 exposure evaluation. The development of indoor PM2.5 concentration prediction models is essential for the health risk assessment of PM2.5 in epidemiological studies involving large populations. Methods In this study, based on the monitoring data of multiple types of places, the classical multiple linear regression (MLR) method and random forest regression (RFR) algorithm of machine learning were used to develop hourly average indoor PM2.5 concentration prediction models. Indoor PM2.5 concentration data, which included 11,712 records from five types of places, were obtained by on-site monitoring. Moreover, the potential predictor variable data were derived from outdoor monitoring stations and meteorological databases. A ten-fold cross-validation was conducted to examine the performance of all proposed models. Results The final predictor variables incorporated in the MLR model were outdoor PM2.5 concentration, type of place, season, wind direction, surface wind speed, hour, precipitation, air pressure, and relative humidity. The ten-fold cross-validation results indicated that both models constructed had good predictive performance, with the determination coefficients (R2) of RFR and MLR were 72.20 and 60.35%, respectively. Generally, the RFR model had better predictive performance than the MLR model (RFR model developed using the same predictor variables as the MLR model, R2 = 71.86%). In terms of predictors, the importance results of predictor variables for both types of models suggested that outdoor PM2.5 concentration, type of place, season, hour, wind direction, and surface wind speed were the most important predictor variables. Conclusion In this research, hourly average indoor PM2.5 concentration prediction models based on multiple types of places were developed for the first time. Both the MLR and RFR models based on easily accessible indicators displayed promising predictive performance, in which the machine learning domain RFR model outperformed the classical MLR model, and this result suggests the potential application of RFR algorithms for indoor air pollutant concentration prediction.
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Srinivasagan R, Mohammed M, Alzahrani A. TinyML-Sensor for Shelf Life Estimation of Fresh Date Fruits. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:7081. [PMID: 37631618 PMCID: PMC10457898 DOI: 10.3390/s23167081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2023] [Revised: 08/02/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 08/27/2023]
Abstract
Fresh dates have a limited shelf life and are susceptible to spoilage, which can lead to economic losses for producers and suppliers. The problem of accurate shelf life estimation for fresh dates is essential for various stakeholders involved in the production, supply, and consumption of dates. Modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) is one of the essential methods that improves the quality and increases the shelf life of fresh dates by reducing the rate of ripening. Therefore, this study aims to apply fast and cost-effective non-destructive techniques based on machine learning (ML) to predict and estimate the shelf life of stored fresh date fruits under different conditions. Predicting and estimating the shelf life of stored date fruits is essential for scheduling them for consumption at the right time in the supply chain to benefit from the nutritional advantages of fresh dates. The study observed the physicochemical attributes of fresh date fruits, including moisture content, total soluble solids, sugar content, tannin content, pH, and firmness, during storage in a vacuum and MAP at 5 and 24 ∘C every 7 days to determine the shelf life using a non-destructive approach. TinyML-compatible regression models were employed to predict the stages of fruit development during the storage period. The decrease in the shelf life of the fruits begins when they transition from the Khalal stage to the Rutab stage, and the shelf life ends when they start to spoil or ripen to the Tamr stage. Low-cost Visible-Near-Infrared (VisNIR) spectral sensors (AS7265x-multi-spectral) were used to capture the internal physicochemical attributes of the fresh fruit. Regression models were employed for shelf life estimation. The findings indicated that vacuum and modified atmosphere packaging with 20% CO2 and N balance efficiently increased the shelf life of the stored fresh fruit to 53 days and 44 days, respectively, when maintained at 5 ∘C. However, the shelf life decreased to 44 and 23 days when the vacuum and modified atmosphere packaging with 20% CO2 and N balance were maintained at room temperature (24 ∘C). Edge Impulse supports the training and deployment of models on low-cost microcontrollers, which can be used to predict real-time estimations of the shelf life of fresh dates using TinyML sensors.
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Tanaka MD, Geubels BM, Grotenhuis BA, Marijnen CAM, Peters FP, van der Mierden S, Maas M, Couwenberg AM. Validated Pretreatment Prediction Models for Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy in Patients with Rectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal. Cancers (Basel) 2023; 15:3945. [PMID: 37568760 PMCID: PMC10417363 DOI: 10.3390/cancers15153945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2023] [Revised: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Pretreatment response prediction is crucial to select those patients with rectal cancer who will benefit from organ preservation strategies following (intensified) neoadjuvant therapy and to avoid unnecessary toxicity in those who will not. The combination of individual predictors in multivariable prediction models might improve predictive accuracy. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize and critically appraise validated pretreatment prediction models (other than radiomics-based models or image-based deep learning models) for response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with rectal cancer and provide evidence-based recommendations for future research. MEDLINE via Ovid, Embase.com, and Scopus were searched for eligible studies published up to November 2022. A total of 5006 studies were screened and 16 were included for data extraction and risk of bias assessment using Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). All selected models were unique and grouped into five predictor categories: clinical, combined, genetics, metabolites, and pathology. Studies generally included patients with intermediate or advanced tumor stages who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Evaluated outcomes were pathological complete response and pathological tumor response. All studies were considered to have a high risk of bias and none of the models were externally validated in an independent study. Discriminative performances, estimated with the area under the curve (AUC), ranged per predictor category from 0.60 to 0.70 (clinical), 0.78 to 0.81 (combined), 0.66 to 0.91 (genetics), 0.54 to 0.80 (metabolites), and 0.71 to 0.91 (pathology). Model calibration outcomes were reported in five studies. Two collagen feature-based models showed the best predictive performance (AUCs 0.83-0.91 and good calibration). In conclusion, some pretreatment models for response prediction in rectal cancer show encouraging predictive potential but, given the high risk of bias in these studies, their value should be evaluated in future, well-designed studies.
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Ji Z, Li X, Lei S, Xu J, Xie Y. A pooled analysis of the risk prediction models for mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. THE CLINICAL RESPIRATORY JOURNAL 2023; 17:707-718. [PMID: 36945821 PMCID: PMC10435958 DOI: 10.1111/crj.13606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 03/23/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The prognosis for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is not optimistic, and severe AECOPD leads to an increased risk of mortality. Prediction models help distinguish between high- and low-risk groups. At present, many prediction models have been established and validated, which need to be systematically reviewed to screen out more suitable models that can be used in the clinic and provide evidence for future research. METHODS We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases for studies on risk models for AECOPD mortality from their inception to 10 April 2022. The risk of bias was assessed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Stata software (version 16) was used to synthesize the C-statistics for each model. RESULTS A total of 37 studies were included. The development of risk prediction models for mortality in patients with AECOPD was described in 26 articles, in which the most common predictors were age (n = 17), dyspnea grade (n = 11), altered mental status (n = 8), pneumonia (n = 6) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN, n = 6). The remaining 11 articles only externally validated existing models. All 37 studies were evaluated at a high risk of bias using PROBAST. We performed a meta-analysis of five models included in 15 studies. DECAF (dyspnoea, eosinopenia, consolidation, acidemia and atrial fibrillation) performed well in predicting in-hospital death [C-statistic = 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.98] and 90-day death [C-statistic = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.82] and CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age) performed well in predicting 30-day death [C-statistic = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.77]. CONCLUSIONS This study provides information on the characteristics, performance and risk of bias of a risk model for AECOPD mortality. This pooled analysis of the present study suggests that the DECAF performs well in predicting in-hospital and 90-day deaths. Yet, external validation in different populations is still needed to prove this performance.
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