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Sirois-Delisle C, Kerr JT. Climate change aggravates non-target effects of pesticides on dragonflies at macroecological scales. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2494. [PMID: 34783410 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2494] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Revised: 06/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Critical gaps in understanding how species respond to environmental change limit our capacity to address conservation risks in a timely way. Here, we examine the direct and interactive effects of key global change drivers, including climate change, land use change, and pesticide use, on persistence of 104 odonate species between two time periods (1980-2002 and 2008-2018) within 100 × 100 km quadrats across the USA using phylogenetic mixed models. Non-target effects of pesticides interacted with higher maximum temperatures to contribute to odonate declines. Closely related species responded similarly to global change drivers, indicating a potential role of inherited traits in species' persistence or decline. Species shifting their range to higher latitudes were more robust to negative impacts of global change drivers generally. Inherited traits related to dispersal abilities and establishment in new places may govern both species' acclimation to global change and their abilities to expand their range limits, respectively. This work is among the first to assess effects of climate change, land use change, and land use intensification together on Odonata, a significant step that improves understanding of multispecies effects of global change on invertebrates, and further identifies conditions contributing to global insect loss.
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Hammerschlag N, McDonnell LH, Rider MJ, Street GM, Hazen EL, Natanson LJ, McCandless CT, Boudreau MR, Gallagher AJ, Pinsky ML, Kirtman B. Ocean warming alters the distributional range, migratory timing, and spatial protections of an apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:1990-2005. [PMID: 35023247 PMCID: PMC9305416 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2021] [Revised: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 12/12/2021] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Given climate change threats to ecosystems, it is critical to understand the responses of species to warming. This is especially important in the case of apex predators since they exhibit relatively high extinction risk, and changes to their distribution could impact predator-prey interactions that can initiate trophic cascades. Here we used a combined analysis of animal tracking, remotely sensed environmental data, habitat modeling, and capture data to evaluate the effects of climate variability and change on the distributional range and migratory phenology of an ectothermic apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Tiger sharks satellite tracked in the western North Atlantic between 2010 and 2019 revealed significant annual variability in the geographic extent and timing of their migrations to northern latitudes from ocean warming. Specifically, tiger shark migrations have extended farther poleward and arrival times to northern latitudes have occurred earlier in the year during periods with anomalously high sea-surface temperatures. A complementary analysis of nearly 40 years of tiger shark captures in the region revealed decadal-scale changes in the distribution and timing of shark captures in parallel with long-term ocean warming. Specifically, areas of highest catch densities have progressively increased poleward and catches have occurred earlier in the year off the North American shelf. During periods of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures, movements of tracked sharks shifted beyond spatial management zones that had been affording them protection from commercial fishing and bycatch. Taken together, these study results have implications for fisheries management, human-wildlife conflict, and ecosystem functioning.
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Schloss CA, Cameron DR, McRae BH, Theobald DM, Jones A. "No-regrets" pathways for navigating climate change: planning for connectivity with land use, topography, and climate. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e02468. [PMID: 34614272 PMCID: PMC9285781 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2020] [Accepted: 12/06/2020] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat and suitable habitat in the future will become increasingly important to ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because the temporal period commensurate with planning for mid-century change is multi-generational for most species, connectivity designed to facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways with 'stepping-stones' between current and future habitat. These areas should have habitats suitable not only for dispersal, but for all aspects of species lifecycles. We integrated present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Using Omniscape we identified climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, as the areas with more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. This approach identified connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. We then translated the model output into a strategic framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action. Across modified landscapes, pathways important to climate-driven movement were highly coincident with the last remaining present-day linkages, reinforcing their importance. Across unfragmented lands, the presence of climate-adapted pathways helped inform the prioritization of conservation actions in areas where multiple connectivity options still exist. Many climate linkages follow major watercourses along elevational gradients, highlighting the importance of protecting or managing for these natural linear pathways that provide movement routes for climate adaptation. By integrating enduring landscape features with climate projections and present-day land uses, our approach reveals "no-regrets" pathways to plan for a connected landscape in an uncertain future.
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Kirk MA, Rahel FJ. Air temperatures over-predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e02465. [PMID: 34614252 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Studies predicting how the distribution of aquatic organisms will shift with climate change often use projected increases in air temperature or water temperature. However, the assumed correlations between water temperature change and air temperature change can be problematic, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams. Using stream fish assemblage data from 1,442 surveys across a mountain-plains gradient (Wyoming, USA; 1990-2018), we compared the responsiveness of thermal guilds, native status groups, and assemblage structure to projected climate warming from generalized air temperature models and stream-specific water temperature models. Air temperature models consistently predicted greater range shift differences between warm-water and cold-water species, with air temperatures predicting greater increases in occurrence and greater range expansions for warm-water species. The "over-prediction" of warm-water species expansions resulted in air temperature models predicting higher rates of novel species combinations, greater increases in local species richness, and higher magnitudes of biotic homogenization compared with water temperature models. Despite differences in model predictions for warm-water species, both air and water temperature models predicted that three cold-water species would exhibit similar decreases in occurrence (decline of 1.0% and 1.8% of sites per 1°C warming, respectively) and similar range contractions (16.6 and 21.5 m elevation loss per 1°C warming, respectively). The "over-prediction" for warm-water species is partially attributable to water temperatures warming at slower rates than air temperatures because local, stream-scale factors (e.g., riparian cover, groundwater inputs) buffer high elevation streams from rising air temperatures. Our study provides the first comparison of how inferences about climate-induced biotic change at the species- and assemblage-levels differ when modeling with generalized air temperatures versus stream-specific water temperatures. We recommend that future studies use stream-specific water temperature models, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams, to avoid the "over-prediction" of biotic changes observed from air temperature variables.
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Beyer R, Manica A. Range Sizes of the World's Mammals, Birds, and Amphibians from the Mid-Holocene to the Industrial Period. Animals (Basel) 2021; 11:ani11123561. [PMID: 34944335 PMCID: PMC8698007 DOI: 10.3390/ani11123561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2021] [Revised: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary The geographic ranges of animal species play an important role for many ecological processes. Changes in climate, as well as human conversion of natural habitats, are two major factors that affect species’ range sizes. While the impact of these two factors in the Industrial era has been thoroughly studied, their pre-Industrial impacts are less well understood further back in time. Here, we combine global reconstructions of land use and climate from 6000 BCE to 1850 CE with data of the geographic distributions and habitat requirements of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species to estimate how human land use and natural climatic change have altered species’ ranges across past millennia. Our results suggest that pre-Industrial land use had only a small impact, yet one that affected almost all species negatively. Climatic variation evidently led to some range expansions and contractions, but overall had a small impact on the majority of species. In the context of a previous study of range changes in the more recent past, our results demonstrate that current rates of range losses exceed the magnitude of range changes seen over many thousands of years prior to the Industrial period to an alarming extent. Abstract Anthropogenic land use and climate change in the Industrial age have had substantial impacts on the geographic ranges of the world’s terrestrial animal species. How do these impacts compare against those in the millennia preceding the Industrial era? Here, we combine reconstructions of global climate and land use from 6000 BCE to 1850 CE with empirical data on the spatial distributions and habitat requirements of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species to estimate changes in their range sizes through time. We find that land use had only a small, yet almost entirely negative impact during most of the study period, whilst natural climatic variability led to some range expansions and contractions; but, overall it had a small impact on the majority of species. Our results provide a baseline for comparison with studies of range changes during the Industrial period, demonstrating that contemporary rates of range loss exceed the magnitude of range changes seen over many thousands of years prior to the Industrial period by an alarming extent.
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Sammet K, Orgusaar G, Ivask M, Kurina O. An overview of Estonian woodlice (Isopoda, Oniscidea). Zookeys 2021; 1067:1-17. [PMID: 34759717 PMCID: PMC8571257 DOI: 10.3897/zookeys.1067.68105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2021] [Accepted: 09/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
An overview of the Estonian terrestrial isopod fauna is given, based on literature data and material collected from 1984 to 2021. The identified material consisted of 10915 specimens belonging to 14 species and collected from 172 localities throughout Estonia. In combination with previous data from the literature data, there are now reliable records of 16 species of woodlice from Estonia. Two species, viz. Platyarthrushoffmannseggii Brandt, 1833 and Hyloniscusriparius (C. Koch, 1838), are new for the fauna. The latter has probably colonised Estonia recently and range expansions have been reported elsewhere. The data on Philosciamuscorum (Scopoli, 1763) are dubious, and this species is currently excluded from the Estonian list.
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Linck EB, Freeman BG, Cadena CD, Ghalambor CK. Evolutionary conservatism will limit responses to climate change in the tropics. Biol Lett 2021; 17:20210363. [PMID: 34610253 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2021.0363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Rapid species turnover in tropical mountains has fascinated biologists for centuries. A popular explanation for this heightened beta diversity is that climatic stability at low latitudes promotes the evolution of narrow thermal tolerance ranges, leading to local adaptation, evolutionary divergence and parapatric speciation along elevational gradients. However, an emerging consensus from research spanning phylogenetics, biogeography and behavioural ecology is that this process rarely, if ever, occurs. Instead, closely related species typically occupy a similar elevational niche, while species with divergent elevational niches tend to be more distantly related. These results suggest populations have responded to past environmental change not by adapting and diverging in place, but instead by shifting their distributions to tightly track climate over time. We argue that tropical species are likely to respond similarly to ongoing and future climate warming, an inference supported by evidence from recent range shifts. In the absence of widespread in situ adaptation to new climate regimes by tropical taxa, conservation planning should prioritize protecting large swaths of habitat to facilitate movement.
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Van Nuland ME, Ware IM, Schadt CW, Yang Z, Bailey JK, Schweitzer JA. Natural soil microbiome variation affects spring foliar phenology with consequences for plant productivity and climate-driven range shifts. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2021; 232:762-775. [PMID: 34227117 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Identifying the potential for natural soil microbial communities to predictably affect complex plant traits is an important frontier in climate change research. Plant phenology varies with environmental and genetic factors, but few studies have examined whether the soil microbiome interacts with plant population differentiation to affect phenology and ecosystem function. We compared soil microbial variation in a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with different soil inoculum treatments in a common garden environment to test how the soil microbiome affects spring foliar phenology and subsequent biomass growth. We hypothesized and show that soil bacterial and fungal communities vary with tree conditioning from different populations and elevations, that this soil community variation influences patterns of foliar phenology and plant growth across populations and elevation gradients, and that transferring lower elevation plant genotypes to higher elevation soil communities delayed foliar phenology, thereby shortening the growing season and reducing annual biomass production. Our findings show the importance of plant-soil interactions that help shape the timing of tree foliar phenology and productivity. These geographic patterns in plant population × microbiome interactions also broaden our understanding of how soil communities impact plant phenotypic variation across key climate change gradients, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.
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Long T, Tang J, Pilfold NW, Zhao X, Dong T. Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:12779-12789. [PMID: 34594538 PMCID: PMC8462142 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Revised: 07/25/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. Similarly, at least one-fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.
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Travers TJP, Alison J, Taylor SD, Crick HQP, Hodgson JA. Habitat patches providing south-north connectivity are under-protected in a fragmented landscape. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211010. [PMID: 34428962 PMCID: PMC8385378 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
As species' ranges shift to track climate change, conservationists increasingly recognize the need to consider connectivity when designating protected areas (PAs). In fragmented landscapes, some habitat patches are more important than others in maintaining connectivity, and methods are needed for their identification. Here, using the Condatis methodology, we model range expansion through an adaptation of circuit theory. Specifically, we map 'flow' through 16 conservation priority habitat networks in England, quantifying how patches contribute to functional South-North connectivity. We also explore how much additional connectivity could be protected via a connectivity-led protection procedure. We find high-flow patches are often left out of existing PAs; across 12 of 16 habitat networks, connectivity protection falls short of area protection by 13.6% on average. We conclude that the legacy of past protection decisions has left habitat-specialist species vulnerable to climate change. This situation may be mirrored in many countries which have similar habitat protection principles. Addressing this requires specific planning tools that can account for the directions species may shift. Our connectivity-led reserve selection procedure efficiently identifies additional PAs that prioritize connectivity, protecting a median of 40.9% more connectivity in these landscapes with just a 10% increase in area.
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Raposo do Amaral F, Thom G, Lima-Ribeiro MS, Alvarado-Serrano DF, Montesanti JAC, Pellegrino KCM, Miyaki CY, Hickerson MJ, Maldonado-Coelho M. Rugged relief and climate promote isolation and divergence between two neotropical cold-associated birds. Evolution 2021; 75:2371-2387. [PMID: 34375460 DOI: 10.1111/evo.14318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2020] [Revised: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/19/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
The role of historical factors in establishing patterns of diversity in tropical mountains is of interest to understand the buildup of megadiverse biotas. In these regions, the historical processes of range fragmentation and contraction followed by dispersal are thought to be mediated by the interplay between rugged relief (complex topography) and climate fluctuations and likely explain most of the dynamics of diversification in plants and animals. Although empirical studies addressing the interaction between climate and topography have provided invaluable insights into population divergence and speciation patterns in tropical montane organisms, a more detailed and robust test of such processes in an explicit spatio-temporal framework is still lacking. Consequently, our ability to gain insights into historical range shifts over time and the genomic footprint left by them is limited. Here, we used niche modeling and subgenomic population-level datasets to explore the evolution of two species of warbling finches (genus Microspingus) disjunctly distributed across the Montane Atlantic Forest, a Neotropical region with complex geological and environmental histories. Population structure inferences suggest a scenario of three genetically differentiated populations, which are congruent with both geography and phenotypic variation. Demographic simulations support asynchronous isolation of these populations as recently as ∼40,000 years ago, relatively stable population sizes over recent time, and past gene flow subsequent to divergence. Throughout the last 800,000 years, niche models predicted extensive expansion into lowland areas with increasing overlap of species distributions during glacial periods, with prominent retractions and isolation into higher altitudes during interglacials, which are in line with signs of introgression of currently isolated populations. These results support a dual role of cyclical climatic changes: population divergence and persistence in mountain tops during warm periods followed by periods of expansion and admixture in lower elevations during cold periods. Our results underscore the role of the interplay between landscape and climate as an important mechanism in the evolution of the Neotropical montane biota.
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Song X, Assis J, Zhang J, Gao X, Gao H, Duan D, Serrão EA, Hu Z. Climate-induced range shifts shaped the present and threaten the future genetic variability of a marine brown alga in the Northwest Pacific. Evol Appl 2021; 14:1867-1879. [PMID: 34295369 PMCID: PMC8288013 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2020] [Revised: 04/22/2021] [Accepted: 04/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Glaciation-induced environmental changes during the last glacial maximum (LGM) have strongly influenced species' distributions and genetic diversity patterns in the northern high latitudes. However, these effects have seldom been assessed on sessile species in the Northwest Pacific. Herein, we chose the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii to test this hypothesis, by comparing present population genetic variability with inferred geographical range shifts from the LGM to the present, estimated with species distribution modelling (SDM). Projections for contrasting scenarios of future climate change were also developed to anticipate genetic diversity losses at regional scales. Results showed that S. thunbergii harbours strikingly rich genetic diversity and multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range of its distribution, in contrast with a poorer genetically distinct lineage in the southern range. SDM hindcasted refugial persistence in the southern range during the LGM as well as post-LGM expansion of 18 degrees of latitude northward. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis further suggested that the multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range limit stem from post-LGM colonization from the southern survived lineage. This suggests divergence due to demographic bottlenecks during range expansion and massive genetic diversity loss during post-LGM contraction in the south. The projected future range of S. thunbergii highlights the threat to unique gene pools that might be lost under global changes.
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Hällfors MH, Pöyry J, Heliölä J, Kohonen I, Kuussaari M, Leinonen R, Schmucki R, Sihvonen P, Saastamoinen M. Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1619-1632. [PMID: 34101328 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Revised: 02/15/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.
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Block S, Levine JM. How Dispersal Evolution and Local Adaptation Affect the Range Dynamics of Species Lagging Behind Climate Change. Am Nat 2021; 197:E173-E187. [PMID: 33989146 DOI: 10.1086/714130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
AbstractAs climate changes, species' ability to spatially track suitable climate depends on their spread velocity, a function of their population growth and dispersal capacity. When climate changes faster than species can spread, the climate experienced at species' expanding range edges may ameliorate as conditions become increasingly similar to those of the range core. When this boosts species' growth rates, their spread accelerates. Here, we use simulations of a spreading population with an annual life history to explore how climatic amelioration interacts with dispersal evolution and local adaptation to determine the dynamics of spread. We found that depending on the timing of dispersal evolution, spread velocity can show contrasting trajectories, sometimes transiently exceeding the climate velocity before decelerating. Climatic amelioration can also accelerate the spread of populations composed of genotypes best adapted to local climatic conditions, but the exact dynamics depends on the pattern of climatic adaptation. We conclude that failing to account for demographic variation across climatic gradients can lead to erroneous conclusions about species' capacity to spatially track suitable climate.
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Clavel J, Lembrechts J, Alexander J, Haider S, Lenoir J, Milbau A, Nuñez MA, Pauchard A, Nijs I, Verbruggen E. The role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in nonnative plant invasion along mountain roads. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2021; 230:1156-1168. [PMID: 32984980 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 09/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Plant associated mutualists can mediate invasion success by affecting the ecological niche of nonnative plant species. Anthropogenic disturbance is also key in facilitating invasion success through changes in biotic and abiotic conditions, but the combined effect of these two factors in natural environments is understudied. To better understand this interaction, we investigated how disturbance and its interaction with mycorrhizas could impact range dynamics of nonnative plant species in the mountains of Norway. Therefore, we studied the root colonisation and community composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in disturbed vs undisturbed plots along mountain roads. We found that roadside disturbance strongly increases fungal diversity and richness while also promoting AM fungal root colonisation in an otherwise ecto-mycorrhiza and ericoid-mycorrhiza dominated environment. Surprisingly, AM fungi associating with nonnative plant species were present across the whole elevation gradient, even above the highest elevational limit of nonnative plants, indicating that mycorrhizal fungi are not currently limiting the upward movement of nonnative plants. We conclude that roadside disturbance has a positive effect on AM fungal colonisation and richness, possibly supporting the spread of nonnative plants, but that there is no absolute limitation of belowground mutualists, even at high elevation.
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Song H, Ordonez A, Svenning JC, Qian H, Yin X, Mao L, Deng T, Zhang J. Regional disparity in extinction risk: Comparison of disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia and eastern North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1904-1914. [PMID: 33474767 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Revised: 11/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human-driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of species in disjunct genera becoming threatened by the 2070s. These regional differences are more pronounced under a best-case climate scenario (RCP2.6), illustrating that strong climate change (RCP8.5) may override any regional buffer capacities. The main variables determining extinction risks differed between the two continental regions, with annual temperature range and cropland expansion being important in EAS, and annual precipitation being important in ENA. These results suggest that disparities in regional exposure to anthropogenic environmental changes may cause congeneric species with relatively similar sensitivity to have different future risks of extinction. Moreover, the findings highlight the context-specific nature of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity and the importance of making region-specific policies for conservation and restoration in response to the intensifying global changes.
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Usinowicz J, Levine JM. Climate-driven range shifts reduce persistence of competitors in a perennial plant community. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1890-1903. [PMID: 33432781 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species persistence in diverse natural communities requires a way to account for indirect effects mediated through species interactions. In particular, we expect species to experience major changes in competition as they track favorable climates. Here, we combine experimental data with a recently developed theoretical framework based on coexistence theory to measure the impact of climate-driven range shifts on alpine plant persistence under climate change. We transplanted three co-dominant alpine perennial species to five elevations, creating a maximum of 5°C increase in average growing-season temperature. We statistically modeled species' demographic rates in response to the environment and interpolated species' intrinsic ranges-the environmental mapping of reproduction in the absence of competition. We used low-density population growth rates-species' initial rate of invasion into an established community-as a metric of persistence. Further analysis of low-density growth rates (LGRs) allowed us to parse the direct impacts of climate change from indirect impacts mediated by shifting competition. Our models predict qualitatively different range shifts for each species based on the climate conditions under which growth rates are maximized and where they are zero. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase the intrinsic (competition free) growth rates of all species, as warmer and wetter conditions increase the favorability of alpine habitat. However, these benefits are entirely negated by increased competition arising from greater overlap between competitors in their intrinsic ranges. Species were highly dispersal limited, which can prevent species from tracking shifting intrinsic ranges by reducing population spread rates. Yet dispersal limitation also promoted species' persistence because it promotes persistence mechanisms. Our study demonstrates the complex pathways by which climate change impacts species' persistence by altering their competitive environment, and highlights how a persistence framework based on LGRs can help disentangle impacts.
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Ettinger AK, Buonaiuto DM, Chamberlain CJ, Morales-Castilla I, Wolkovich EM. Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2021; 230:462-474. [PMID: 33421152 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.
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Duchenne F, Martin G, Porcher E. European plants lagging behind climate change pay a climatic debt in the North, but are favoured in the South. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1178-1186. [PMID: 33750013 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation.
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McCain CM, King SRB, Szewczyk TM. Unusually large upward shifts in cold-adapted, montane mammals as temperature warms. Ecology 2021; 102:e03300. [PMID: 33565621 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Revised: 10/27/2020] [Accepted: 11/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
The largest and tallest mountain range in the contiguous United States, the Southern Rocky Mountains, has warmed considerably in the past several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. Herein we examine how 47 mammal elevational ranges (27 rodent and 4 shrew species) have changed from their historical distributions (1886-1979) to their contemporary distributions (post 2005) along 2,400-m elevational gradients in the Front Range and San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Historical elevational ranges were based on more than 4,580 georeferenced museum specimen and publication records. Contemporary elevational ranges were based on 7,444 records from systematic sampling efforts and museum specimen records. We constructed Bayesian models to estimate the probability a species was present, but undetected, due to undersampling at each 50-m elevational bin for each time period and mountain range. These models leveraged individual-level detection probabilities, the number and patchiness of detections across 50-m bands of elevation, and a decaying likelihood of presence from last known detections. We compared 95% likelihood elevational ranges between historical and contemporary time periods to detect directional change. Responses were variable as 26 mammal ranges changed upward, 6 did not change, 11 changed downward, and 4 were extirpated locally. The average range shift was 131 m upward, while exclusively montane species shifted upward more often (75%) and displayed larger average range shifts (346 m). The best predictors of upper limit and total directional change were species with higher maximum latitude in their geographic range, montane affiliation, and the study mountain was at the southern edge of their geographic range. Thus, mammals in the Southern Rocky Mountains serve as harbingers of more changes to come, particularly for montane, cold-adapted species in the southern portion of their ranges.
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Oldfather MF, Koontz MJ, Doak DF, Ackerly DD. Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:772-780. [PMID: 33559296 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage-specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.
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Jobe JGD, Gedan K. Species-specific responses of a marsh-forest ecotone plant community responding to climate change. Ecology 2021; 102:e03296. [PMID: 33556188 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2020] [Revised: 09/28/2020] [Accepted: 11/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Ecotones are responsive to environmental change and pave a path for succession as they move across the landscape. We investigated the biotic and abiotic filters to species establishment on opposite ends of a tidal marsh-forest ecotone that is moving inland in response to sea level rise. We transplanted four plant species common to the ecotone to the leading or trailing edge of the migrating ecotone, with and without caging to protect them from ungulate herbivores. We found that species exhibited an individualistic response to abiotic and biotic pressures in this ecotone; three species performed better at the leading edge of the ecotone in the coastal forest, whereas one performed better at the trailing edge in the marsh. Specifically, grass species Phragmites australis and Panicum virgatum grew more in the low light and low salinity conditions of the leading edge of the ecotone (forest), whereas the shrub Iva frutescens grew better in the high light, high salinity conditions of the trailing edge of the ecotone (marsh). Furthermore, of the four species, only P. australis was affected by the biotic pressure of herbivory by an introduced ungulate, Cervus nippon, which greatly reduced its biomass and survival at the leading edge (forest). P. australis is an aggressive invasive species and has been observed to dominate in the wake of migrating marsh-forest ecotones. Our findings detail the role of lower salinity stress to promote and herbivory pressure to inhibit the establishment of P. australis during shifts of this ecotone, and also highlight an interaction between two nonnative species, P. australis and C. nippon. Understanding migration of the marsh-forest ecotone and the factors controlling P. australis establishment are critical for marsh conservation in the face of sea level rise. More generally, our findings support the conclusion that the abiotic and biotic filters of a migrating ecotone shape the resulting community.
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Fisher JT, Burton AC. Spatial structure of reproductive success infers mechanisms of ungulate invasion in Nearctic boreal landscapes. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:900-911. [PMID: 33520174 PMCID: PMC7820139 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2020] [Revised: 10/21/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Landscape change is a key driver of biodiversity declines due to habitat loss and fragmentation, but spatially shifting resources can also facilitate range expansion and invasion. Invasive populations are reproductively successful, and landscape change may buoy this success.We show how modeling the spatial structure of reproductive success can elucidate the mechanisms of range shifts and sustained invasions for mammalian species with attendant young. We use an example of white-tailed deer (deer; Odocoileus virginianus) expansion in the Nearctic boreal forest, a North American phenomenon implicated in severe declines of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus).We hypothesized that deer reproductive success is linked to forage subsidies provided by extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We measured deer occurrence using data from 62 camera traps in northern Alberta, Canada, over three years. We weighed support for multiple competing hypotheses about deer reproductive success using multistate occupancy models and generalized linear models in an AIC-based model selection framework.Spatial patterns of reproductive success were best explained by features associated with petroleum exploration and extraction, which offer early-seral vegetation resource subsidies. Effect sizes of anthropogenic features eclipsed natural heterogeneity by two orders of magnitude. We conclude that anthropogenic early-seral forage subsidies support high springtime reproductive success, mitigating or exceeding winter losses, maintaining populations. Synthesis and Applications. Modeling spatial structuring in reproductive success can become a key goal of remote camera-based global networks, yielding ecological insights into mechanisms of invasion and range shifts to inform effective decision-making for global biodiversity conservation.
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Gutt J, Isla E, Xavier JC, Adams BJ, Ahn IY, Cheng CHC, Colesie C, Cummings VJ, di Prisco G, Griffiths H, Hawes I, Hogg I, McIntyre T, Meiners KM, Pearce DA, Peck L, Piepenburg D, Reisinger RR, Saba GK, Schloss IR, Signori CN, Smith CR, Vacchi M, Verde C, Wall DH. Antarctic ecosystems in transition - life between stresses and opportunities. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2020; 96:798-821. [PMID: 33354897 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2020] [Revised: 12/08/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of 'scientific understanding' revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub-messages, indicating that process-oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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Breslin PB, Wojciechowski MF, Albuquerque F. Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine-adapted plant species at risk of extinction. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:13211-13224. [PMID: 33304531 PMCID: PMC7713919 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2020] [Revised: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 07/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
AIM Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for C. halei; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios. LOCATION The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico. METHODS We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.
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