Evaluating predictive modeling algorithms to assess patient eligibility for clinical trials from routine data

BACKGROUND

The necessity to translate eligibility criteria from free text into decision rules that are compatible with data from the electronic health record (EHR) constitutes the main challenge when developing and deploying clinical trial recruitment support systems. Recruitment decisions based on case-based reasoning, i.e. using past cases rather than explicit rules, could dispense with the need for translating eligibility criteria and could also be implemented largely independently from the terminology of the EHR's database. We evaluated the feasibility of predictive modeling to assess the eligibility of patients for clinical trials and report on a prototype's performance for different system configurations.

METHODS

The prototype worked by using existing basic patient data of manually assessed eligible and ineligible patients to induce prediction models. Performance was measured retrospectively for three clinical trials by plotting receiver operating characteristic curves and comparing the area under the curve (ROC-AUC) for different prediction algorithms, different sizes of the learning set and different numbers and aggregation levels of the patient attributes.

RESULTS

Random forests were generally among the best performing models with a maximum ROC-AUC of 0.81 (CI: 0.72-0.88) for trial A, 0.96 (CI: 0.95-0.97) for trial B and 0.99 (CI: 0.98-0.99) for trial C. The full potential of this algorithm was reached after learning from approximately 200 manually screened patients (eligible and ineligible). Neither block- nor category-level aggregation of diagnosis and procedure codes influenced the algorithms' performance substantially.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that predictive modeling is a feasible approach to support patient recruitment into clinical trials. Its major advantages over the commonly applied rule-based systems are its independency from the concrete representation of eligibility criteria and EHR data and its potential for automation.

[Trial helplessness of defendant healthcare facilities in cases concerning nosocomial infections]

The number of pecuniary cases involving patient claims due to nosocomial infections has been increasing for many years, and with it, the amount of adjudged compensations has also been increasing. In this situation, it is important for defendant healthcare facilities to implement a proper policy, both before the trial and during the court proceedings. Unfortunately, as a rule, defendant facilities commit a variety of errors, such as: wrong strategy, inability to cooperate on the part of those involved in the matter and improper preparation and usage of evidence. The result is that the risk of unfavorable assessment of the case increases significantly.

Choosing the right strategy for point-of-service collections

Healthcare organizations should keep three key considerations in mind when selecting and implementing a pricing transparency tool: The approach that the tool will take (e.g., claims-based or contract-based). The training required of staff. The benchmarks that will be used to measure performance, ROI, and satisfaction of patients and staff.

Proactive approach identifies benefits

The University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics in Iowa City, has developed strategies to identify uninsured patients early in the stay, and help them access ongoing care in the community. Twelve healthcare benefit assistance program social workers educate patients and families about financial options and help them apply for government-sponsored programs. Through a Revolving Fund agreement, the hospital pays the Medicaid rate to post-acute facilities while patients' Social Security Disability is pending and is paid back when the disability coverage is approved. Dedicated social workers help patients who need brand name medications and can't afford them sign up for national pharmaceutical assistance programs.

Think like a payer when patients are uninsured

Hospitals need to develop a detailed policy of when and how they'll provide post-acute financial assistance for uninsured or under-insured patients. The policy should allow staff to get real time decisions about what will be covered. Staff should apply the policy consistently to all patients in all situations. A policy frees up case managers to coordinate care for all their patients rather than spending hours at a time trying to line up post-acute care for unfunded patients.

Eligibility, compliance and persistence of extended adjuvant endocrine therapy for breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Extended therapy (ET) beyond the standard five years of tamoxifen-containing treatment is a widely discussed therapy option in adjuvant endocrine breast cancer (BC) therapy which might offer an opportunity for further protection against late relapses. In this study we evaluated eligibility, compliance and persistence of extended adjuvant endocrine BC therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data concerning all BC patients (≤75 years) who initiated endocrine adjuvant therapy between 1999 and 2005 (n = 286) was analyzed.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-eight patients were valid candidates for an ET according current guidelines; this represents 48.3% of the individuals who started endocrine therapy five years ago. Of these, 89 (64.5%) received a corresponding offer/recommendation by their treating physicians. Advanced age (p = 0.002), favorable disease stage (p = 0.011), and follow-up at a general practitioner (p < 0.001) were significant factors where a recommendation for an ET was not made. Of the 89 patients who were offered an ET, 64 followed this proposal (compliance: 84.7%). Eighteen patients (28.1%) were non-persistent to the ET; therapy-related adverse effects were the main reason for discontinuation. Sixteen patients received an ET beyond current guidelines (tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor alone was given longer than five years); this represents 11.0% of all patients who completed five years of endocrine therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Only a minority of the patients who started an endocrine therapy were actually eligible for an ET. Patients who were offered/recommended an ET had a high rate of compliance and persistence. Efforts should be made to make sure that all physicians, above all general practitioners, who are involved in the treatment of BC patients, are provided with current therapy guidelines as to guarantee an optimal patient management.

Longitudinal patterns of Medicaid and Medicare coverage among disability cash benefit awardees

This article explores the role of the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) cash benefit programs in providing access to public health insurance coverage among working-aged people with disabilities, using a sample of administrative records spanning 84 months. We find that complex longitudinal interactions between DI and SSI eligibility determine access to and timing of Medicare and Medicaid coverage. SSI plays an important role in providing a pathway to Medicaid coverage for many low-income individuals during the 29-month combined DI and Medicare waiting periods, when Medicare coverage is not available. After Medicare eligibility kicks in, public health insurance coverage is virtually complete among awardees with some DI involvement. Medicaid coverage continues at or above 90 percent after 2 years for SSI-only awardees. Many people who exit SSI retain their Medicaid coverage, but the gap in coverage between stayers and those who leave SSI increases over time.

[Analysis of the explicit guarantees of health inclusion criteria for elderly burned patients]

BACKGROUND

The guidelines for the treatment of severely burned patients, included in the explicit guarantees in health care (GES), accept having a Garces' index over 70, among others, as an inclusion criterion. This criterion allows elderly patients with small total burn surface area (TBSA) to have access to GES.

AIM

To analyze if a universal access to GES for this group of patients is justified.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Revision of medical records of adult patients admitted to a burn service. Causative agent, TBSA, associated illnesses and outcome were compared between 218 subjects aged 65 years or more and 720 subjects aged less than 65 years.

RESULTS

Older subjects had smaller TBSA, a lower prevalence of inhalation injury and more associated diseases. Their lethality was three times greater than that of younger subjects and their risk of dying. When adjusting for TBSA, presence of inhalation injury and associated diseases was 11 times greater.

CONCLUSIONS

The inclusion of older people with lower TBSA in the explicit guarantees in health is fully justified, considering the lethality of burns in this age group.

Administrative simplification: adoption of operating rules for eligibility for a health plan and health care claim status transactions. Interim final rule with comment period

Section 1104 of the Administrative Simplification provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (hereafter referred to as the Affordable Care Act) establishes new requirements for administrative transactions that will improve the utility of the existing HIPAA transactions and reduce administrative costs. Specifically, in section 1104(b)(2) of the Affordable Care Act, Congress required the adoption of operating rules for the health care industry and directed the Secretary of Health and Human Services to "adopt a single set of operating rules for each transaction * * * with the goal of creating as much uniformity in the implementation of the electronic standards as possible." This interim final rule with comment period adopts operating rules for two Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA) transactions: eligibility for a health plan and health care claim status. This rule also defines the term "operating rules" and explains the role of operating rules in relation to the adopted transaction standards. In general, transaction standards adopted under HIPAA enable electronic data interchange through a common interchange structure, thus minimizing the industry's reliance on multiple formats. Operating rules, in turn, attempt to define the rights and responsibilities of all parties, security requirements, transmission formats, response times, liabilities, exception processing, error resolution and more, in order to facilitate successful interoperability between data systems of different entities.

[Neurosis as a mental disease--controversies surrounding insurance certification]

In the years 2008-2009, experts from the Department of Forensic Medicine in Katowice issued a dozen of expert opinions on the nature of the neurosis, addressing the question whether neurosis is a mental disease as understood under the general insurance conditions or whether neurosis is a mental disease as such. All the submitted cases involved policemen who had been diagnosed as neurotic and were refused insurance payments since the insurance company claimed payments could not have been effected due to the diagnosis of mental disease, meaning neurosis in the discussed cases. The plaintiffs invoked the fact that medical terminology describes such states as "mental disorders". In the article, the authors present the adopted model of opinionating, make an attempt at explaining the controversy and discuss the subtleties of medical terminology and the core differences between the terms "mental disorder" and "mental disease" as employed in medico-legal opinionating in such cases.

Bariatric surgery: a primer

OBJECTIVE

To review the management of bariatric surgical patients.

QUALITY OF EVIDENCE

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched, as well as PubMed US National Library, from January 1950 to December 2009. Evidence was levels I, II, and III.

MAIN MESSAGE

Bariatric surgery should be considered for obese patients at high risk of morbidity and mortality who have not achieved adequate weight loss with lifestyle and medical management and who are suffering from the complications of obesity. Bariatric surgery can result in substantial weight loss, resolution of comorbid conditions, and improved quality of life. The patient's weight-loss history; his or her personal accountability, responsibility, and comprehension; and the acceptable level of risk must be taken into account. Complications include technical failure, bleeding, abdominal pain, nausea or vomiting, excess loose skin, bowel obstruction, ulcers, and anastomotic stricture. Lifelong monitoring by a multidisciplinary team is essential.

CONCLUSION

Limited long-term success of behavioural and pharmacologic therapies in severe obesity has led to renewed interest in bariatric surgery. Success with bariatric surgery is more likely when multidisciplinary care providers, in conjunction with primary care providers, assess, treat, monitor, and evaluate patients before and after surgery. Family physicians will play a critical role in counseling patients about bariatric surgery and will need to develop skills in managing these patients in the long-term.

How effective is your organization's financial assistance eligibility program?

Steps to take in determining whether your organization's financial assistance eligibility program should be revamped include the following: Conduct a "gap analysis" to evaluate your organization's specific needs. Communicate with other facilities that have faced similar problems to uncover what solutions worked--or didn't work--for them. Recognize that identifying coverage for the underinsured and uninsured requires a special skill set.

Influence of subject eligibility criteria on compliance with National Institutes of Health guidelines for inclusion of women, minorities, and children in treatment research

BACKGROUND

Many alcohol treatment outcome studies exclude some patients with particular problems, such as psychiatric disorders, noncompliance, and homelessness. Such criteria may increase the likelihood of a study being successfully conducted, but may also have the unintended consequence of reducing a study's ability to comply with National Institutes of Health guidelines for inclusion of racial minorities, women, and children in treatment research.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This paper examined this issue empirically using 5 prior studies of treatment systems enrolling over 100,000 alcohol patients. Widely used eligibility criteria in the alcohol treatment field typically exclude between one-fifth to one-third of patients from enrolling in research. Under several eligibility criteria, most notably those for drug use and social/residential instability, women and African-American patients are substantially more likely to be excluded than are men and non-African-American patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In designing treatment studies with many eligibility criteria, researchers may therefore inadvertently be thwarting their own good faith efforts to ensure that a range of vulnerable populations are able to participate in research. We analyze the implications of this dilemma for the generalizability of treatment results and for research design, and provide data that may help researchers working in different treatment systems estimate the impact of various eligibility criteria.