Prognostic value of chronic total occlusions detected on coronary computed tomographic angiography

OBJECTIVE

Data describing clinical relevance of chronic total occlusion (CTO) identified by coronary CT angiography (CCTA) have not been reported to date. We investigated the prognosis of CTO on CCTA.

METHODS

We identified 22 828 patients without prior known coronary artery disease (CAD), who were followed for a median of 26 months. Based on CCTA, coronary lesions were graded as normal (no atherosclerosis), non-obstructive (1%-49%), moderate-to-severe (50%-99%) or totally occluded (100%). All-cause mortality, and major adverse cardiac events defined as mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and late coronary revascularisation (≥90 days after CCTA) were assessed.

RESULTS

The distribution of patients with normal coronaries, non-obstructive CAD, moderate-to-severe CAD and CTO was 10 034 (44%), 7965 (34.9%), 4598 (20.1%) and 231 (1%), respectively. The mortality rate per 1000 person-years of CTO patients was non-significantly different from patients with moderate-to-severe CAD (22.95; 95% CI 12.71 to 41.45 vs 14.46; 95% CI 12.34 to 16.94; p=0.163), and significantly higher than of those with normal coronaries and non-obstructive CAD (p<0.001 for both). Among 14 382 individuals with follow-up for the composite end point, patients with CTO had a higher rate of events than those with moderate-to-severe CAD (106.56; 95% CI 76.51 to 148.42 vs 65.45; 95% CI 58.01 to 73.84, p=0.009). This difference was primarily driven by an increase in late revascularisations in CTO patients (27 of 35 events). After multivariable adjustment, compared with individuals with normal coronaries, the presence of CTO conferred the highest risk for adverse cardiac events (14.54; 95% CI 9.11 to 23.20, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The detection of CTO on non-invasive CCTA is associated with increased rate of late revascularisation but similar 2-year mortality as compared with moderate-to-severe CAD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01443637.

Implications of coronary artery calcium testing on risk stratification for lipid-lowering therapy according to the 2016 European Society of Cardiology recommendations: The MESA study

AIMS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular risk assessment considers coronary artery calcium a class B indication for risk assessment. We evaluated the degree to which coronary artery calcium can change the recommendation for individuals based on a change in estimated risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We stratified 5602 MESA participants according to the ESC recommendation as: no lipid-lowering treatment recommended ( N = 2228), consider lipid-lowering treatment if uncontrolled ( N = 1686), or lipid-lowering treatment recommended ( N = 1688). We evaluated the ability of coronary artery calcium to reclassify cardiovascular risk. Among the selected sample, 54% had coronary artery calcium of zero, 25% had coronary artery calcium of 1-100 and 21% had coronary artery calcium greater than 100. In the lipid-lowering treatment recommended group 31% had coronary artery calcium of zero, while in the lipid-lowering treatment if uncontrolled group about 50% had coronary artery calcium of zero. The cardiovascular mortality rate was 1.7%/10 years in the lipid-lowering treatment if uncontrolled, and 7.0%/10 years in the lipid-lowering treatment recommended group. The absence of coronary artery calcium was associated with 1.4%/10 years in the lipid-lowering treatment if uncontrolled group and 3.0%/10 years in the lipid-lowering treatment recommended group. Compared with coronary artery calcium of zero, any coronary artery calcium was associated with significantly higher cardiovascular mortality in the lipid-lowering treatment recommended group (9.0%/10 years), whereas only coronary artery calcium greater than 100 was significantly associated with a higher cardiovascular mortality in the lipid-lowering treatment if uncontrolled group (3.2%/10 years).

CONCLUSION

The absence of coronary artery calcium is associated with a low incidence of cardiovascular mortality or coronary heart disease events even in individuals in whom lipid-lowering therapy is recommended. A significant proportion of individuals deemed to be candidates for lipid-lowering therapy might be reclassified to a lower risk group with the use of coronary artery calcium.

Coronary Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a highly specific feature of coronary atherosclerosis. On the basis of single-center and multicenter clinical and population-based studies with short-term and long-term outcomes data (up to 15-year follow-up), CAC scoring has emerged as a widely available, consistent, and reproducible means of assessing risk for major cardiovascular outcomes, especially useful in asymptomatic people for planning primary prevention interventions such as statins and aspirin. CAC testing in asymptomatic populations is cost effective across a broad range of baseline risk. This review summarizes evidence concerning CAC, including its pathobiology, modalities for detection, predictive role, use in prediction scoring algorithms, CAC progression, evidence that CAC changes the clinical approach to the patient and patient behavior, novel applications of CAC, future directions in scoring CAC scans, and new CAC guidelines.

Ten-year association of coronary artery calcium with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

Aims

While coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category.

Methods and results

We utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use.

Conclusions

Coronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

Coronary Atherosclerotic Precursors of Acute Coronary Syndromes

BACKGROUND

The association of atherosclerotic features with first acute coronary syndromes (ACS) has not accounted for plaque burden.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to identify atherosclerotic features associated with precursors of ACS.

METHODS

We performed a nested case-control study within a cohort of 25,251 patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) with follow-up over 3.4 ± 2.1 years. Patients with ACS and nonevent patients with no prior coronary artery disease (CAD) were propensity matched 1:1 for risk factors and coronary CTA-evaluated obstructive (≥50%) CAD. Separate core laboratories performed blinded adjudication of ACS and culprit lesions and quantification of baseline coronary CTA for percent diameter stenosis (%DS), percent cross-sectional plaque burden (PB), plaque volumes (PVs) by composition (calcified, fibrous, fibrofatty, and necrotic core), and presence of high-risk plaques (HRPs).

RESULTS

We identified 234 ACS and control pairs (age 62 years, 63% male). More than 65% of patients with ACS had nonobstructive CAD at baseline, and 52% had HRP. The %DS, cross-sectional PB, fibrofatty and necrotic core volume, and HRP increased the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of ACS (1.010 per %DS, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005 to 1.015; 1.008 per percent cross-sectional PB, 95% CI: 1.003 to 1.013; 1.002 per mm3 fibrofatty plaque, 95% CI: 1.000 to 1.003; 1.593 per mm3 necrotic core, 95% CI: 1.219 to 2.082; all p < 0.05). Of the 129 culprit lesion precursors identified by coronary CTA, three-fourths exhibited <50% stenosis and 31.0% exhibited HRP.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ACS increases with %DS, most precursors of ACS cases and culprit lesions are nonobstructive. Plaque evaluation, including HRP, PB, and plaque composition, identifies high-risk patients above and beyond stenosis severity and aggregate plaque burden.

Economic Outcomes of a Precision Medicine Blood Test To Assess Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease: Results from the PRESET Registry

PURPOSE

The evaluation of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) is inefficient and costly. Previous studies of an age/sex/gene expression score (ASGES) in this diagnostic workup have shown a 96% negative predictive value, as well as an 85% decreased likelihood of cardiac referral among low-score outpatients at 45 days. The objective was to explore the one-year cost implications of ASGES use among symptomatic outpatients.

DESIGN

A prospective PRESET Registry (NCT01677156) enrolled stable, nonacute adult patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of obstructive CAD at 21 U.S. primary care practices.

METHODOLOGY

Demographics, clinical factors, and ASGES (defined as low <=15 or elevated >15), as well as management plans post-ASGES, were collected. The economic endpoint analysis was based on the cost of cardiovascular-related tests, procedures, office visits, emergency room visits, and hospitalizations during one year after testing.

RESULTS

The analysis included 566 patients, 51% of whom were women and the median age was 56. Forty-five percent had a low ASGES. The mean cost of cardiovascular care for patients in the year following ASGES was $1,647 for patients with a low ASGES versus $2,709 for those with an elevated score (39% reduction, P=.03 by Wilcoxon rank test). This relationship remained after multivariate analysis that adjusted for patient demographics and clinical covariates (P<.001).

CONCLUSION

The ASGES helped identify patients with low current likelihood of obstructive CAD. These patients had lower costs of cardiovascular care during one year of follow-up. Early reductions in cardiac referrals at 45 days among these patients persisted at one year.

Resting heart rate and the incidence and progression of valvular calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Left-sided valvular calcification is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Resting heart rate (RHR) may influence valvular calcium progression through shear stress. Whether RHR, an established CVD risk factor, is associated with valvular calcium progression is unknown. We assessed whether RHR predicts incidence and progression of mitral annular calcium (MAC) and aortic valve calcium (AVC) in a community-based cohort free of CVD at baseline.

METHODS

RHR was obtained from baseline electrocardiograms of 5498 MESA participants. MAC and AVC were quantified using Agatston scoring from cardiac computed tomography scans obtained at baseline and at a second examination during follow-up. We examined associations of RHR with incident MAC/AVC and annual change in MAC/AVC scores, after adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, physical activity, and atrioventricular nodal blocker use.

RESULTS

At baseline, participants had mean age of 62 ± 10 years and mean RHR of 63 ± 10 bpm; 12.3% and 8.9% had prevalent AVC and MAC, respectively. Over a median of 2.3 years, 4.1% and 4.5% developed incident AVC and MAC, respectively. Each 10 bpm higher RHR was significantly associated with incident MAC [Risk Ratio 1.17 (95% CI 1.03-1.34)], but not incident AVC. However, RHR was associated with AVC progression [β = 1.62 (0.45-2.80) Agatston units/year for every 10 bpm increment], but not MAC progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher RHR was associated with MAC incidence and AVC progression, independent of traditional CVD risk factors. Future studies are needed to determine whether modification of RHR through lifestyle or pharmacologic interventions can reduce valvular calcium incidence or progression.

Changes in Coronary Plaque Volume: Comparison of Serial Measurements on Intravascular Ultrasound and Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography

Serial measurements of coronary plaque volume have been used to evaluate drug efficacy in atherosclerotic progression. However, the usefulness of computed tomography for this purpose is unknown. We investigated whether the change in total plaque volume on coronary computed tomographic angiography is associated with the change in segment plaque volume on intravascular ultrasound. We prospectively enrolled 11 consecutive patients (mean age, 56.3 ± 5 yr; 6 men) who were to undergo serial invasive coronary angiographic examinations with use of grayscale intravascular ultrasound and coronary computed tomography, performed <180 days apart at baseline and from 1 to 2 years later. Subjects underwent 186 serial measurements of total plaque volume on coronary computed tomography and 22 of segmental plaque volume on intravascular ultrasound. We used semiautomated software to examine percentage relationships and changes between total plaque and segmental plaque volumes. No significant correlations were found between percentages of total coronary and segment coronary plaque volume, nor between normalized coronary plaque volume. However, in the per-patient analysis, there were strong correlations between the imaging methods for changes in total coronary and segment coronary plaque volume (r=0.62; P=0.04), as well as normalized plaque volume (r=0.82; P=0.002). Per-patient change in plaque volume on coronary computed tomography is significantly associated with that on intravascular ultrasound. Computed tomographic angiography may be safer and more widely available than intravascular ultrasound for evaluating atherosclerotic progression in coronary arteries. Larger studies are warranted.

Natural History of Diabetic Coronary Atherosclerosis by Quantitative Measurement of Serial Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography: Results of the PARADIGM Study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the rate and extent of plaque progression (PP), changes in plaque features, and clinical predictors of PP in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM).

BACKGROUND

The natural history of coronary PP in patients with DM is not well established.

METHODS

A total of 1,602 patients (age 61.3 ± 9.0 years; 60.3% men; median scan interval 3.8 years) who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography over a period of at least 24 months were enrolled and analyzed from the PARADIGM (Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging) trial. Study endpoints were changes in plaque features in diabetics with PP and risk factors for PP by serial coronary computed tomography angiography between patients with and without DM. PP was defined if plaque volume at follow-up minus plaque volume at baseline was >0.

RESULTS

DM was an independent risk factor for PP (84.6%; 276 of 326 patients with PP) in multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR]: 1.526; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.100 to 2.118; p = 0.011). Independent risk factors for PP in patients with DM were male sex (OR: 1.485; 95% CI: 1.003 to 2.199; p = 0.048) and mean plaque burden at baseline ≥75% (OR: 3.121; 95% CI: 1.701 to 5.725; p ≤0.001). After propensity matching, percent changes in overall plaque volume (30.3 ± 36.9% in patients without DM and 36.0 ± 29.7% in those with DM; p = 0.032) and necrotic core volume (-7.0 ± 35.8% in patients without DM and 21.5 ± 90.5% in those with DM; p = 0.007) were significantly greater in those with DM. The frequency of spotty calcification, positive remodeling, and burden of low-attenuation plaque were significantly greater in patients with DM.

CONCLUSIONS

People with DM experience greater PP, particularly significantly greater progression in adverse plaque, than those without DM. Male sex and mean plaque burden >75% at baseline were identified as independent risk factors for PP.

Circulating Interleukin-6 is a biomarker for coronary atherosclerosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers to predict the presence and severity of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are lacking.

METHODS

3876 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), without known chronic liver disease underwent baseline non-contrast cardiac CT, with NAFLD defined by validated liver:spleen ratio (L:S) < 1.0, and subclinical CVD defined by coronary artery calcium (CAC) score > 0. Randomly-selected subgroups underwent detailed inflammatory marker testing, including LpPLA2 mass (N = 2951), activity (N = 3020), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP; N = 3849), and interleukin-6 (IL-6; N = 3764). Among those with NAFLD, we estimated the prevalence of CAC > 0 and CAC > 100 for each SD biomarker increase, using multivariable log-binomial regression models adjusted for cardiometabolic risk factors.

RESULTS

Seventeen percent (N = 668) of participants met the criteria for NAFLD. NAFLD participants were younger (mean age 61 ± 10 vs. 63 ± 10 years, p < .0001) but more likely to have an elevated BMI (mean 31.1 ± 5.5 vs. 28.0 ± 5.2 kg/m2, p < .0001), diabetes (22% vs. 11%, p < .0001), and increased inflammatory biomarkers, including LpPLA2 activity, hsCRP and IL-6 (all p < .0001). Among NAFLD participants, IL-6 was the only biomarker independently associated with prevalent CAC > 0 (PR = 1.06 [1.00-1.11]), or CAC > 100 (PR = 1.09 [1.02-1.17]). In contrast, circulating LpPLA2 mass/activity and hsCRP were not associated with either the prevalence or severity of subclinical CVD (all p > .05).

CONCLUSION

In a large, multi-ethnic population with NAFLD, IL-6 is independently associated with the prevalence and severity of subclinical atherosclerosis. Further research into the longitudinal effects of NAFLD on progressive CVD will determine whether IL-6 is a marker or mediator of NAFLD-related atherosclerosis.

Hepatocyte growth factor is associated with progression of atherosclerosis: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) has previously been associated with risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, and atherosclerosis. We hypothesized that higher circulating HGF is associated with greater progression of measures of atherosclerosis: coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid plaque.

METHODS

Participants aged 45-84 years from the prospective cohort study Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis had HGF measured at baseline (between 2000 and 2002) and were followed for progression of atherosclerosis for up to 12 years. CAC was measured at all five exams using the Agatston method. Mixed-effects models were used to examine the association of HGF and CAC progression among 6695 participants with available data. Relative risk regression was used to assess the association between HGF and new or additional carotid plaque between exams 1 and 5 in 3400 participants with available data. All point estimates were adjusted for potential confounding variables.

RESULTS

Each standard deviation higher HGF at baseline was associated with 2.9 Agatston units/year greater CAC progression (95% CI: 1.6-4.2, p < 0.0001), and the magnitude of this association differed by race/ethnicity (p value for interaction by race = 0.003). Each standard deviation higher HGF at baseline was associated with a 4% higher risk of new or additional carotid plaque (95% CI: 1.01-1.08, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of HGF were significantly associated with greater progression of atherosclerosis in this large and diverse population. Circulating HGF continues to show promise as a potential clinical biomarker for cardiovascular disease.

Automated estimation of image quality for coronary computed tomographic angiography using machine learning

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a fully automated method for assessing the image quality (IQ) of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA).

METHODS

The machine learning method was trained using 75 CCTA studies by mapping features (noise, contrast, misregistration scores, and un-interpretability index) to an IQ score based on manual ground truth data. The automated method was validated on a set of 50 CCTA studies and subsequently tested on a new set of 172 CCTA studies against visual IQ scores on a 5-point Likert scale.

RESULTS

The area under the curve in the validation set was 0.96. In the 172 CCTA studies, our method yielded a Cohen's kappa statistic for the agreement between automated and visual IQ assessment of 0.67 (p < 0.01). In the group where good to excellent (n = 163), fair (n = 6), and poor visual IQ scores (n = 3) were graded, 155, 5, and 2 of the patients received an automated IQ score > 50 %, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Fully automated assessment of the IQ of CCTA data sets by machine learning was reproducible and provided similar results compared with visual analysis within the limits of inter-operator variability.

KEY POINTS

• The proposed method enables automated and reproducible image quality assessment. • Machine learning and visual assessments yielded comparable estimates of image quality. • Automated assessment potentially allows for more standardised image quality. • Image quality assessment enables standardization of clinical trial results across different datasets.

Prognostic value of coronary computed tomographic angiography findings in asymptomatic individuals: a 6-year follow-up from the prospective multicentre international CONFIRM study

Aim

The long-term prognostic benefit of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) findings of coronary artery disease (CAD) in asymptomatic populations is unknown.

Methods and results

From the prospective multicentre international CONFIRM long-term study, we evaluated asymptomatic subjects without known CAD who underwent both coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) and CCTA (n = 1226). Coronary computed tomographic angiography findings included the severity of coronary artery stenosis, plaque composition, and coronary segment location. Using the C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, we evaluated the incremental prognostic utility of CCTA findings over a base model that included a panel of traditional risk factors (RFs) as well as CACS to predict long-term all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up of 5.9 ± 1.2 years, 78 deaths occurred. Compared with the traditional RF alone (C-statistic 0.64), CCTA findings including coronary stenosis severity, plaque composition, and coronary segment location demonstrated improved incremental prognostic utility beyond traditional RF alone (C-statistics range 0.71-0.73, all P < 0.05; incremental χ2 range 20.7-25.5, all P < 0.001). However, no added prognostic benefit was offered by CCTA findings when added to a base model containing both traditional RF and CACS (C-statistics P > 0.05, for all).

Conclusions

Coronary computed tomographic angiography improved prognostication of 6-year all-cause mortality beyond a set of conventional RF alone, although, no further incremental value was offered by CCTA when CCTA findings were added to a model incorporating RF and CACS.

Influence of symptom typicality for predicting MACE in patients without obstructive coronary artery disease: From the CONFIRM Registry (Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Evaluation for Clinical Outcomes: An International Multicenter Registry)

Our objective was to assess the prognostic value of symptom typicality in patients without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), determined by coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA). We identified 4215 patients without prior history of CAD and without obstructive CAD (<50% CCTA stenosis). CAD severity was categorized as nonobstructive (1%-49%) and none (0%). Based upon the Diamond-Forrester criteria for angina pectoris, symptom typicality was classified as asymptomatic, nonanginal, atypical, and typical. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), comprising all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and late revascularization, according to symptom typicality. Mean patient age was 57.0 ±12.0 years (54.9% male). During a median follow-up of 5.3 years (interquartile range, 4.6-5.9 years), MACE were reported in 312 (7.4%) patients. Among patients with nonobstructive CAD, there was an association between symptom typicality and MACE (P for interaction = 0.05), driven by increased risk of MACE among those with typical angina and nonobstructive CAD (hazard ratio: 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-2.48, P = 0.03). No consistent relationship was found between symptom typicality and MACE among patients without any CAD (hazard ratio: 0.73, 95% confidence interval: 0.34-1.57, P = 0.08). In the CONFIRM registry, patients who presented with concomitant typical angina and nonobstructive CAD had a higher rate of MACE than did asymptomatic patients with nonobstructive CAD. However, the presence of typical angina did not appear to portend worse prognosis in patients with no CAD.

Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a 5-year multicentre prospective registry analysis

Aims

Traditional prognostic risk assessment in patients undergoing non-invasive imaging is based upon a limited selection of clinical and imaging findings. Machine learning (ML) can consider a greater number and complexity of variables. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility and accuracy of ML to predict 5-year all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA), and compared the performance to existing clinical or CCTA metrics.

Methods and results

The analysis included 10 030 patients with suspected coronary artery disease and 5-year follow-up from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter registry. All patients underwent CCTA as their standard of care. Twenty-five clinical and 44 CCTA parameters were evaluated, including segment stenosis score (SSS), segment involvement score (SIS), modified Duke index (DI), number of segments with non-calcified, mixed or calcified plaques, age, sex, gender, standard cardiovascular risk factors, and Framingham risk score (FRS). Machine learning involved automated feature selection by information gain ranking, model building with a boosted ensemble algorithm, and 10-fold stratified cross-validation. Seven hundred and forty-five patients died during 5-year follow-up. Machine learning exhibited a higher area-under-curve compared with the FRS or CCTA severity scores alone (SSS, SIS, DI) for predicting all-cause mortality (ML: 0.79 vs. FRS: 0.61, SSS: 0.64, SIS: 0.64, DI: 0.62; P< 0.001).

Conclusions

Machine learning combining clinical and CCTA data was found to predict 5-year ACM significantly better than existing clinical or CCTA metrics alone.

The Effect of Testosterone on Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Testosterone Trials

CONTEXT

Studies of the possible cardiovascular risk of testosterone treatment are inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of testosterone treatment on cardiovascular biomarkers in older men with low testosterone.

DESIGN

Double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

SETTING

Twelve academic medical centers in the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

In all, 788 men ≥65 years old with an average of two serum testosterone levels <275 ng/dL who were enrolled in The Testosterone Trials.

INTERVENTION

Testosterone gel, the dose adjusted to maintain the testosterone level in the normal range for young men, or placebo gel for 12 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serum markers of cardiovascular risk, including lipids and markers of glucose metabolism, fibrinolysis, inflammation, and myocardial damage.

RESULTS

Compared with placebo, testosterone treatment significantly decreased total cholesterol (adjusted mean difference, -6.1 mg/dL; P < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (adjusted mean difference, -2.0 mg/dL; P < 0.001), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (adjusted mean difference, -2.3 mg/dL; P = 0.051) from baseline to month 12. Testosterone also slightly but significantly decreased fasting insulin (adjusted mean difference, -1.7 µIU/mL; P = 0.02) and homeostatic model assessment‒insulin resistance (adjusted mean difference, -0.6; P = 0.03). Testosterone did not change triglycerides, d-dimer, C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, troponin, glucose, or hemoglobin A1c levels more than placebo.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Testosterone treatment of 1 year in older men with low testosterone was associated with small reductions in cholesterol and insulin but not with other glucose markers, markers of inflammation or fibrinolysis, or troponin. The clinical importance of these findings is unclear and requires a larger trial of clinical outcomes.

Low thigh muscle mass is associated with coronary artery stenosis among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected men: The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS)

BACKGROUND

HIV-infected individuals are at increased risk for both sarcopenia and cardiovascular disease. Whether an association between low muscle mass and subclinical coronary artery disease (CAD) exists, and if it is modified by HIV serostatus, are unknown.

METHODS

We performed cross-sectional analysis of 513 male MACS participants (72% HIV-infected) who underwent mid-thigh computed tomography (CT) and non-contrast cardiac CT for coronary artery calcium (CAC) during 2010-2013. Of these, 379 also underwent coronary CT angiography for non-calcified coronary plaque (NCP) and obstructive coronary stenosis ≥50%. Multivariable-adjusted Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence risk ratios of associations between low muscle mass (<20th percentile of the HIV-uninfected individuals in the sample) and CAC, NCP and obstructive stenosis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of low thigh muscle mass was similar by HIV serostatus (20%). There was no association of low muscle mass with CAC or NCP. However, low thigh muscle mass was significantly associated with a 2.5-fold higher prevalence of obstructive coronary stenosis, after adjustment for demographics and traditional CAD risk factors [PR 2.46 (95% CI 1.51, 4.01)]. This association remained significant after adjustment for adiposity, inflammation, and physical activity. There was no significant interaction by HIV serostatus (p-interaction = 0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

In this exploratory analysis, low thigh muscle mass was significantly associated with subclinical obstructive coronary stenosis. Additional studies involving larger sample sizes and prospective analyses are needed to confirm the potential utility of measuring mid-thigh muscle mass for identifying individuals at increased risk for obstructive CAD who might benefit from more aggressive risk factor management.

Relation of Coronary Artery Calcium and Extra-Coronary Aortic Calcium to Incident Hypertension (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Arterial calcification reflects an atherosclerotic process associated with vascular stiffness. Whether baseline coronary artery calcium (CAC) and extra-coronary calcium (ECC), measured using noncontrast computed tomography imaging, are associated with incident hypertension is poorly understood. We studied participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis without measured or self-reported hypertension at baseline. Incident hypertension was defined by blood pressure criteria (BP, ≥140/90 mmHg), BP medication use, or both, and was assessed at in-person visits. We analyzed incident hypertension using multivariable-adjusted discrete-time proportional hazards models. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) assessed whether CAC reclassified hypertension risk when added to the Framingham hypertension risk score. Among 3,304 subjects analyzed, mean age was 59 ± 10 years; 48% were male and 42% were white. There were 1,283 incident hypertension cases over a median (interquartile range) follow-up time of 10.6 (4.5, 11.5) years. Each 1-unit increase in ln(CAC+1) was independently associated with a 12% higher risk of hypertension (95% confidence interval [CI] 9% to 16%). Relative to CAC = 0, patients with CAC >400 had a hazard ratio for incident hypertension of 2.2 (95% CI 1.8 to 2.9). There was no interaction by age, gender, or baseline BP (p = 0.43, 0.19, 0.09, respectively). Continuous NRI analyses demonstrated that CAC can reclassify risk of incident hypertension; NRI = 0.19 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.26). Furthermore, all measurements of ECC were significantly associated with incident hypertension, even after adjustment for CAC (hazard ratios ranging from 1.36 to 1.38). In conclusion, patients with CAC and ECC are at markedly higher risk of incident hypertension and may benefit from more intensified prevention efforts.