Subgroup analysis of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly randomized clinical trial suggests aspirin did not improve outcomes in older adults with chronic kidney disease

The role of aspirin for primary prevention in older adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. Therefore, post hoc analysis of the randomized controlled trial ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) was undertaken comparing 100 mg of enteric-coated aspirin daily against matching placebo. Participants were community dwelling adults aged 70 years and older in Australia, 65 years and older in the United States, all free of a history of dementia or cardiovascular disease and of any disease expected to lead to death within five years. CKD was defined as present at baseline if either eGFR under 60mL/min/1.73m² or urine albumin to creatinine ratio 3 mg/mmol or more. In 4758 participants with and 13004 without CKD, the rates of a composite endpoint (dementia, persistent physical disability or death), major adverse cardiovascular events and clinically significant bleeding in the CKD participants were almost double those without CKD. Aspirin's effects as estimated by hazard ratios were generally similar between CKD and non-CKD groups for dementia, persistent physical disability or death, major adverse cardiovascular events and clinically significant bleeding. Thus, in our analysis aspirin did not improve outcomes in older people while increasing the risk of bleeding, with mostly consistent effects in participants with and without CKD.

Genetic Variation in PEAR1, Cardiovascular Outcomes and Effects of Aspirin in a Healthy Elderly Population

The platelet endothelial aggregation receptor-1 (PEAR1) rs12041331 variant has been identified as a genetic determinant of platelet aggregation in response to antiplatelet therapies, including aspirin. However, association with atherothrombotic cardiovascular events is less clear, with limited evidence from large trials. Here, we tested association of rs12041331 with cardiovascular events and aspirin use in a randomized trial population of healthy older individuals. We undertook post hoc analysis of 13,547 participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, median age 74 years. Participants had no previous diagnosis of atherothrombotic cardiovascular disease at enrollment, and were randomized to either 100 mg daily low-dose aspirin or placebo for median 4.7 years follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to model the relationship between rs12041331 and the ASPREE primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) end point, and composites of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and ischemic stroke (STROKE); and bleeding events; major hemorrhage (MHEM) and intracranial bleeding (ICB). We performed whole-population analysis using additive and dominant inheritance models, then stratified by treatment group. Interaction effects between genotypes and treatment group were examined. We observed no statistically significant association (P < 0.05) in the population, or by treatment group, between rs12041331 and cardiovascular or bleeding events in either model. We also found no significant interaction effects between rs12041331-A and treatment group, for CVD (P = 0.65), MACE (P = 0.32), STROKE (P = 0.56), MHEM (P = 0.59), or ICB (P = 0.56). The genetic variant PEAR1 rs12041331 is not associated with cardiovascular events in response to low-dose aspirin in a healthy elderly population.

Factors Associated With Treatment and Control of Hypertension in a Healthy Elderly Population Free of Cardiovascular Disease: A Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Despite readily available treatments, control of blood pressure (BP) with population aging remains suboptimal. Further, there are gaps in the understanding of the management of high BP in the aged. We explored antihypertensive treatment and control among elderly hypertensive participants free from overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), and identified factors related to both "untreated" and "treated but uncontrolled" high BP.

METHODS

We analyzed baseline data from 19,114 individuals aged ≥65 years enrolled from Australia and United States (US) in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study. Hypertension was defined as an average systolic/diastolic BP ≥140/90 mm Hg and/or the use of any BP lowering medication. "Controlled hypertension" was defined if participants were receiving antihypertensive medication and BP <140 and 90 mm Hg. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize hypertension control rates; logistic regression was used to investigate relationships with treatment and BP control.

RESULTS

Overall, 74% (14,213/19,114) of participants were hypertensive; and of these 29% (4,151/14,213) were untreated. Among those treated participants, 53% (5,330/10,062) had BP ≥140/90 mm Hg. Participants who were untreated were more likely to be men, have higher educational status, and be in good physical health, and less likely to have significant comorbidities. The factors related to "treated but uncontrolled" BP included older age, male, Black race (vs. White), using antihypertensive monotherapy (vs. multiple) and residing in Australia (vs. US).

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of "untreated" and "treated but uncontrolled" BP occur in healthy elderly people without CVD, suggesting there are opportunities for better BP control in the primary prevention of CVD in this population.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01038583.

P4557Factors associated with treatment and control of hypertension in a healthy elderly population free of cardiovascular disease: a cross-sectional study

Introduction

Despite readily available treatments, control of high blood pressure (BP) in the ageing population remains suboptimal. Gaps in understanding the management of high BP amongst the elderly exist, as most studies have been in predominantly middle-aged populations.

Purpose

We explored pharmacological BP lowering treatment and control among elderly hypertensive participants free from overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), and identified factors related to both “untreated” and “treated but uncontrolled” high BP.

Methods

We analyzed baseline data from 19,114 individuals aged ≥65 years enrolled from Australia and the US in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. Hypertension was defined as an average systolic/diastolic BP ≥140/90 mmHg and/or use of any BP-lowering medication. `Controlled hypertensives” were those receiving BP-lowering medication and with BP <140/90 mmHg. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize hypertension control rates; logistic regression was used to investigate relationships with treatment and BP control.

Results

Overall, 74% (14,213/19,114) of participants were hypertensive, and of these 29% (4,151/14,213) were untreated. Among those treated, 47% (4,732/10,062) had BP <140/90 mmHg. Participants who were untreated were more likely to be men, have higher educational status, and be in good physical health, and less likely to have significant comorbidities. The factors related to “treated but uncontrolled” hypertension included older age, being men, Black race (versus White), using BP lowering monotherapy and residing in Australia (versus US) (Figure 1).

Conclusion(s)

There were high levels of “untreated” and “treated but uncontrolled” BP, in an otherwise healthy elderly population, suggesting that opportunities for better BP control exist through targeting intervention to high-risk individuals.

Acknowledgement/Funding

National Institute on Aging and the National Cancer Institute at NIH; NHMRC Australia, Monash University, Victorian Cancer Agency (Australia)

P6362Impact of the 2017 AHA/ACC hypertension guideline on hypertension prevalence and cardiovascular risk factors in a healthy older cohort

Background

The 2017 American Heart Association (AHA)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) hypertension guideline recommends a target blood pressure (BP) of <130/80 mmHg regardless of age, which is lower than previously recommended BP goals.

Purpose

We aimed to determine how much the updated classification for high BP would increase the overall prevalence of “hypertension” in an otherwise healthy elderly population. Additionally, we explored the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor distribution in those newly classified “hypertensives” to determine whether the increased prevalence of hypertension was accompanied by an increase in other modifiable CVD risk factors.

Methods

We used baseline data from 19,114 participants (16,703 in Australia and 2,411 in the USA) aged ≥65 years who were enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study between 2010 and 2014. Participants were classified as having hypertension using either: (a) pre-2017 thresholds (SBP ≥140 mmHg or mean DBP ≥90 mmHg and/or on anti-hypertensive) or (b) 2017 AHA/ACC guidelines (SBP ≥130 mmHg or DBP ≥80 mmHg and/or on anti-hypertensive). We assessed the presence of cardiovascular disease risk factors such as diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, obesity, reduced renal function among these hypertensive participants and also estimated their predicted risk over 10 years.

Results

Based on pre-2017 thresholds, 74% of the participants met the criteria for hypertension. Hypertension prevalence increased to 87% when the more stringent 2017 guideline was applied. 29% of this subset of newly classified hypertensive participants did not have any other identifiable traditional CVD risk factors. Further, a significantly lower 10-year predicted cardiovascular risk (22% versus 26%, p<0.001) among those newly classified hypertensive participants was observed in relation to those having hypertension based on pre-2017 guideline (Figure 1).

Figure 1. 10-year predicted CVD risk among hyoertensive and newly classified hypertensive ASPREE participants by presence of CVD risk factor

Conclusion

As expected, the prevalence of hypertension increased among the healthy elderly when applying the new AHA-2017 guideline; however, the increased prevalence occurs despite lack of an accompanying increase in additional CVD risk factors or predicted 10-year risk. Our findings suggest an individualized approach is needed in evaluating high BP among the healthy elderly.

Acknowledgement/Funding

National Institute on Aging and the National Cancer Institute at NIH; NHMRC Australia, Monash University, Victorian Cancer Agency (Australia)

D-Dimer Predicts Long-Term Cause-Specific Mortality, Cardiovascular Events, and Cancer in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease: LIPID Study

BACKGROUND

D-dimer, a degradation product of cross-linked fibrin, is a marker for hypercoagulability and thrombotic events. Moderately elevated levels of D-dimer are associated with the risk of venous and arterial events in patients with vascular disease. We assessed the role of D-dimer levels in predicting long-term vascular outcomes, cause-specific mortality, and new cancers in the LIPID trial (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) in the context of other risk factors.

METHODS

LIPID randomized patients to placebo or pravastatin 40 mg/d 5 to 38 months after myocardial infarction or unstable angina. D-dimer levels were measured at baseline and at 1 year. Median follow-up was 6.0 years during the trial and 16 years in total.

RESULTS

Baseline D-dimer levels for 7863 patients were grouped by quartile (≤112, 112-173, 173-273, >273 ng/mL). Higher levels were associated with older age, female sex, history of hypertension, poor renal function, and elevated levels of B-natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and sensitive troponin I (each P<0.001). During the first 6 years, after adjustment for up to 30 additional risk factors, higher D-dimer was associated with a significantly increased risk of a major coronary event (quartile 4 versus 1: hazard ratio [HR], 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.74), major cardiovascular disease (CVD) event (HR, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.71) and venous thromboembolism (HR, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 2.31-7.03; each P<0.001). During the 16 years overall, higher D-dimer was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.59), CVD mortality (HR, 1.61), cancer mortality (HR, 1.54), and non-CVD noncancer mortality (HR, 1.57; each P<0.001), remaining significant for deaths resulting from each cause occurring beyond 10 years of follow-up (each P≤0.01). Higher D-dimer also independently predicted an increase in cancer incidence (HR, 1.16; P=0.02).The D-dimer level increased the net reclassification index for all-cause mortality by 4.0 and venous thromboembolism by 13.6.

CONCLUSIONS

D-dimer levels predict long-term risk of arterial and venous events, CVD mortality, and non-CVD noncancer mortality independent of other risk factors. D-dimer is also a significant predictor of cancer incidence and mortality. These results support an association of D-dimer with fatal events across multiple diseases and demonstrate that this link extends beyond 10 years' follow-up.

Safety of Proton Pump Inhibitors Based on a Large, Multi-Year, Randomized Trial of Patients Receiving Rivaroxaban or Aspirin

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are effective at treating acid-related disorders. These drugs are well tolerated in the short term, but long-term treatment was associated with adverse events in observational studies. We aimed to confirm these findings in an adequately powered randomized trial.

METHODS

We performed a 3 × 2 partial factorial double-blind trial of 17,598 participants with stable cardiovascular disease and peripheral artery disease randomly assigned to groups given pantoprazole (40 mg daily, n = 8791) or placebo (n = 8807). Participants were also randomly assigned to groups that received rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) with aspirin (100 mg once daily), rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily), or aspirin (100 mg) alone. We collected data on development of pneumonia, Clostridium difficile infection, other enteric infections, fractures, gastric atrophy, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive lung disease, dementia, cardiovascular disease, cancer, hospitalizations, and all-cause mortality every 6 months. Patients were followed up for a median of 3.01 years, with 53,152 patient-years of follow-up.

RESULTS

There was no statistically significant difference between the pantoprazole and placebo groups in safety events except for enteric infections (1.4% vs 1.0% in the placebo group; odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.75). For all other safety outcomes, proportions were similar between groups except for C difficile infection, which was approximately twice as common in the pantoprazole vs the placebo group, although there were only 13 events, so this difference was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large placebo-controlled randomized trial, we found that pantoprazole is not associated with any adverse event when used for 3 years, with the possible exception of an increased risk of enteric infections. ClinicalTrials.gov Number: NCT01776424.

Pantoprazole to Prevent Gastroduodenal Events in Patients Receiving Rivaroxaban and/or Aspirin in a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antiplatelets and anticoagulants are associated with increased upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We evaluated whether proton pump inhibitor therapy could reduce this risk.

METHODS

We performed a 3 × 2 partial factorial double-blind trial of 17,598 participants with stable cardiovascular disease and peripheral artery disease. Participants were randomly assigned to groups given pantoprazole 40 mg daily or placebo, as well as rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily with aspirin 100 mg once daily, rivaroxaban 5 mg twice daily, or aspirin 100 mg alone. The primary outcome was time to first upper gastrointestinal event, defined as a composite of overt bleeding, upper gastrointestinal bleeding from a gastroduodenal lesion or of unknown origin, occult bleeding, symptomatic gastroduodenal ulcer or ≥5 erosions, upper gastrointestinal obstruction, or perforation.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in upper gastrointestinal events between the pantoprazole group (102 of 8791 events) and the placebo group (116 of 8807 events) (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-1.15). Pantoprazole significantly reduced bleeding of gastroduodenal lesions (hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.94; P = .03); this reduction was greater when we used a post-hoc definition of bleeding gastroduodenal lesion (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.74), although the number needed to treat still was high (n = 982; 95% confidence interval, 609-2528).

CONCLUSIONS

In a randomized placebo-controlled trial, we found that routine use of proton pump inhibitors in patients receiving low-dose anticoagulation and/or aspirin for stable cardiovascular disease does not reduce upper gastrointestinal events, but may reduce bleeding from gastroduodenal lesions. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01776424.

Changes in plasma lipids predict pravastatin efficacy in secondary prevention

BACKGROUNDStatins have pleiotropic effects on lipid metabolism. The relationship between these effects and future cardiovascular events is unknown. We characterized the changes in lipids upon pravastatin treatment and defined the relationship with risk reduction for future cardiovascular events.METHODSPlasma lipids (n = 342) were measured in baseline and 1-year follow-up samples from a Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease (LIPID) study subcohort (n = 4991). The associations of changes in lipids with treatment and cardiovascular outcomes were investigated using linear and Cox regression. The effect of treatment on future cardiovascular outcomes was examined by the relative risk reduction (RRR).RESULTSPravastatin treatment was associated with changes in 206 lipids. Species containing arachidonic acid were positively associated while phosphatidylinositol species were negatively associated with pravastatin treatment. The RRR from pravastatin treatment for cardiovascular events decreased from 23.5% to 16.6% after adjustment for clinical risk factors and change in LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) and to 3.0% after further adjustment for the change in the lipid ratio PI(36:2)/PC(38:4). Change in PI(36:2)/PC(38:4) mediated 58% of the treatment effect. Stratification of patients into quartiles of change in PI(36:2)/PC(38:4) indicated no benefit of pravastatin in the fourth quartile.CONCLUSIONThe change in PI(36:2)/PC(38:4) predicted benefit from pravastatin, independent of change in LDL-C, demonstrating its potential as a biomarker for monitoring the clinical benefit of statin treatment in secondary prevention.TRIAL REGISTRATIONAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry identifier ACTRN12616000535471.FUNDINGBristol-Myers Squibb; NHMRC grants 211086, 358395, and 1029754; NHMRC program grant 1149987; NHMRC fellowship 108026; and the Operational Infrastructure Support Program of the Victorian government of Australia.

Vascular Pathology and Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

Vascular pathology (changes in blood vessels) and osteoarthritis (OA) are both common chronic conditions associated with aging and obesity, but whether vascular pathology is a risk factor for OA is unclear. The aim of this study was to systematically review the evidence for an association between vascular pathology and risk of joint-specific OA.

METHODS

Scopus, Ovid Medline, and EMBASE were searched from inception to February 2019. MeSH terms and keywords were used to identify studies examining the association between vascular pathology and OA. Two reviewers independently extracted the data and assessed the methodological quality. Qualitative evidence synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies with high (n = 3), fair (n = 3), or low (n = 9) quality were included. Features of vascular pathology included atherosclerosis, vascular stiffness, and endothelial dysfunction in different vascular beds. There was evidence for an association between vascular pathology and risk of hand OA in women but not men, and between vascular pathology and risk of knee OA in both men and women. Only 2 studies examined hip OA showing no association between vascular pathology and risk of hip OA.

CONCLUSION

There is evidence suggesting an association between vascular pathology and risk of hand and knee OA, with a potential causal relationship for knee OA. Based on the limited evidence, it is hard to conclude an association for hip OA. Further stronger evidence is needed to determine whether there is a causal relationship.

Rationale, design, and baseline participant characteristics in the MRI and cognitive substudy of the cardiovascular outcomes for people using anticoagulation strategies trial

BACKGROUND

Covert vascular disease of the brain manifests as infarcts, white matter hyperintensities, and microbleeds on MRI. Their cumulative effect is often a decline in cognition, motor impairment, and psychiatric disorders. Preventive therapies for covert brain ischemia have not been established but represent a huge unmet clinical need.

AIMS

The MRI substudy examines the effects of the antithrombotic regimens in COMPASS on incident covert brain infarcts (the primary outcome), white matter hyperintensities, and cognitive and functional status in a sample of consenting COMPASS participants without contraindications to MRI.

METHODS

COMPASS is a randomized superiority trial testing rivaroxaban 2.5 mg bid plus acetylsalicylic acid 100 mg and rivaroxaban 5 mg bid against acetylsalicylic acid 100 mg per day for the combined endpoint of MI, stroke, and cardiovascular death in individuals with stable coronary artery disease or peripheral artery disease. T1-weighted, T2-weighted, T2*-weighted, and FLAIR images were obtained close to randomization and near the termination of assigned antithrombotic therapy; biomarker and genetic samples at randomization and one month, and cognitive and functional assessment at randomization, after two years and at the end of study.

RESULTS

Between March 2013 and May 2016, 1905 participants were recruited from 86 centers in 16 countries. Of these participants, 1760 underwent baseline MRI scans that were deemed technically adequate for interpretation. The mean age at entry of participants with interpretable MRI was 71 years and 23.5% were women. Coronary artery disease was present in 90.4% and 28.1% had peripheral artery disease. Brain infarcts were present in 34.8%, 29.3% had cerebral microbleeds, and 93.0% had white matter hyperintensities. The median Montreal Cognitive Assessment score was 26 (interquartile range 23-28).

CONCLUSIONS

The COMPASS MRI substudy will examine the effect of the antithrombotic interventions on MRI-determined covert brain infarcts and cognition. Demonstration of a therapeutic effect of the antithrombotic regimens on brain infarcts would have implications for prevention of cognitive decline and provide insight into the pathogenesis of vascular cognitive decline.

Evaluating recruitment strategies for AUSPICE, a large Australian community-based randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effectiveness of different strategies for recruiting participants for a large Australian randomised controlled trial (RCT), the Australian Study for the Prevention through Immunisation of Cardiovascular Events (AUSPICE).

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Men and women aged 55-60 years with at least two cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, overweight/obesity) were recruited for a multicentre placebo-controlled RCT assessing the effectiveness of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPV) for preventing cardiovascular events.

METHODS

Invitations were mailed by the Australian Department of Human Services to people in the Medicare database aged 55-60 years; reminders were sent 2 weeks later. Invitees could respond in hard copy or electronically. Direct recruitment was supplemented by asking invitees to extend the invitation to friends and family (snowball sampling) and by Facebook advertising.

MAIN OUTCOME

Proportions of invitees completing screening questionnaire and recruited for participation in the RCT.

RESULTS

21 526 of 154 992 invited people (14%) responded by completing the screening questionnaire, of whom 4725 people were eligible and recruited for the study. Despite the minimal study burden (one questionnaire, one clinic visit), the overall participation rate was 3%, or an estimated 10% of eligible persons. Only 16% of eventual participants had responded within 2 weeks of the initial invitation letter (early responders); early and late responders did not differ in their demographic or medical characteristics. Socio-economic disadvantage did not markedly influence response rates. Facebook advertising and snowball sampling did not increase recruitment.

CONCLUSIONS

Trial participation rates are low, and multiple concurrent methods are needed to maximise recruitment. Social media strategies may not be successful in older age groups.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12615000536561.

Effect of Aspirin on All-Cause Mortality in the Healthy Elderly

BACKGROUND

In the primary analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, now published in the Journal, we report that the daily use of aspirin did not provide a benefit with regard to the primary end point of disability-free survival among older adults. A numerically higher rate of the secondary end point of death from any cause was observed with aspirin than with placebo.

METHODS

From 2010 through 2014, we enrolled community-dwelling persons in Australia and the United States who were 70 years of age or older (or ≥65 years of age among blacks and Hispanics in the United States) and did not have cardiovascular disease, dementia, or disability. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 100 mg of enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Deaths were classified according to the underlying cause by adjudicators who were unaware of trial-group assignments. Hazard ratios were calculated to compare mortality between the aspirin group and the placebo group, and post hoc exploratory analyses of specific causes of death were performed.

RESULTS

Of the 19,114 persons who were enrolled, 9525 were assigned to receive aspirin and 9589 to receive placebo. A total of 1052 deaths occurred during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up. The risk of death from any cause was 12.7 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group and 11.1 events per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.29). Cancer was the major contributor to the higher mortality in the aspirin group, accounting for 1.6 excess deaths per 1000 person-years. Cancer-related death occurred in 3.1% of the participants in the aspirin group and in 2.3% of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher all-cause mortality was observed among apparently healthy older adults who received daily aspirin than among those who received placebo and was attributed primarily to cancer-related death. In the context of previous studies, this result was unexpected and should be interpreted with caution. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Effect of Aspirin on Cardiovascular Events and Bleeding in the Healthy Elderly

BACKGROUND

Aspirin is a well-established therapy for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events. However, its role in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is unclear, especially in older persons, who have an increased risk.

METHODS

From 2010 through 2014, we enrolled community-dwelling men and women in Australia and the United States who were 70 years of age or older (or ≥65 years of age among blacks and Hispanics in the United States) and did not have cardiovascular disease, dementia, or disability. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 100 mg of enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. The primary end point was a composite of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability; results for this end point are reported in another article in the Journal. Secondary end points included major hemorrhage and cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal or nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure).

RESULTS

Of the 19,114 persons who were enrolled in the trial, 9525 were assigned to receive aspirin and 9589 to receive placebo. After a median of 4.7 years of follow-up, the rate of cardiovascular disease was 10.7 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group and 11.3 events per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83 to 1.08). The rate of major hemorrhage was 8.6 events per 1000 person-years and 6.2 events per 1000 person-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.62; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of low-dose aspirin as a primary prevention strategy in older adults resulted in a significantly higher risk of major hemorrhage and did not result in a significantly lower risk of cardiovascular disease than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Effect of Aspirin on Disability-free Survival in the Healthy Elderly

BACKGROUND

Information on the use of aspirin to increase healthy independent life span in older persons is limited. Whether 5 years of daily low-dose aspirin therapy would extend disability-free life in healthy seniors is unclear.

METHODS

From 2010 through 2014, we enrolled community-dwelling persons in Australia and the United States who were 70 years of age or older (or ≥65 years of age among blacks and Hispanics in the United States) and did not have cardiovascular disease, dementia, or physical disability. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 100 mg per day of enteric-coated aspirin or placebo orally. The primary end point was a composite of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Secondary end points reported in this article included the individual components of the primary end point and major hemorrhage.

RESULTS

A total of 19,114 persons with a median age of 74 years were enrolled, of whom 9525 were randomly assigned to receive aspirin and 9589 to receive placebo. A total of 56.4% of the participants were women, 8.7% were nonwhite, and 11.0% reported previous regular aspirin use. The trial was terminated at a median of 4.7 years of follow-up after a determination was made that there would be no benefit with continued aspirin use with regard to the primary end point. The rate of the composite of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability was 21.5 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group and 21.2 per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.11; P=0.79). The rate of adherence to the assigned intervention was 62.1% in the aspirin group and 64.1% in the placebo group in the final year of trial participation. Differences between the aspirin group and the placebo group were not substantial with regard to the secondary individual end points of death from any cause (12.7 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group and 11.1 events per 1000 person-years in the placebo group), dementia, or persistent physical disability. The rate of major hemorrhage was higher in the aspirin group than in the placebo group (3.8% vs. 2.8%; hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.62; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Aspirin use in healthy elderly persons did not prolong disability-free survival over a period of 5 years but led to a higher rate of major hemorrhage than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Baseline and on-statin treatment lipoprotein(a) levels for prediction of cardiovascular events: individual patient-data meta-analysis of statin outcome trials

BACKGROUND

Elevated lipoprotein(a) is a genetic risk factor for cardiovascular disease in general population studies. However, its contribution to risk for cardiovascular events in patients with established cardiovascular disease or on statin therapy is uncertain.

METHODS

Patient-level data from seven randomised, placebo-controlled, statin outcomes trials were collated and harmonised to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular events, defined as fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, or revascularisation procedures. HRs for cardiovascular events were estimated within each trial across predefined lipoprotein(a) groups (15 to <30 mg/dL, 30 to <50 mg/dL, and ≥50 mg/dL, vs <15 mg/dL), before pooling estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

Analyses included data for 29 069 patients with repeat lipoprotein(a) measurements (mean age 62 years [SD 8]; 8064 [28%] women; 5751 events during 95 576 person-years at risk). Initiation of statin therapy reduced LDL cholesterol (mean change -39% [95% CI -43 to -35]) without a significant change in lipoprotein(a). Associations of baseline and on-statin treatment lipoprotein(a) with cardiovascular disease risk were approximately linear, with increased risk at lipoprotein(a) values of 30 mg/dL or greater for baseline lipoprotein(a) and 50 mg/dL or greater for on-statin lipoprotein(a). For baseline lipoprotein(a), HRs adjusted for age and sex (vs <15 mg/dL) were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·18) for 15 mg/dL to less than 30 mg/dL, 1·11 (1·00-1·22) for 30 mg/dL to less than 50 mg/dL, and 1·31 (1·08-1·58) for 50 mg/dL or higher; respective HRs for on-statin lipoprotein(a) were 0·94 (0·81-1·10), 1·06 (0·94-1·21), and 1·43 (1·15-1·76). HRs were almost identical after further adjustment for previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol. The association of on-statin lipoprotein(a) with cardiovascular disease risk was stronger than for on-placebo lipoprotein(a) (interaction p=0·010) and was more pronounced at younger ages (interaction p=0·008) without effect-modification by any other patient-level or study-level characteristics.

INTERPRETATION

In this individual-patient data meta-analysis of statin-treated patients, elevated baseline and on-statin lipoprotein(a) showed an independent approximately linear relation with cardiovascular disease risk. This study provides a rationale for testing the lipoprotein(a) lowering hypothesis in cardiovascular disease outcomes trials.

FUNDING

Novartis Pharma AG.

Large-scale plasma lipidomic profiling identifies lipids that predict cardiovascular events in secondary prevention

BACKGROUND

Plasma lipidomic measures may enable improved prediction of cardiovascular outcomes in secondary prevention. The aim of this study is to determine the association of plasma lipidomic measurements with cardiovascular events and assess their potential to predict such events.

METHODS

Plasma lipids (n = 342) were measured in a retrospective subcohort (n = 5,991) of the LIPID study. Proportional hazards regression was used to identify lipids associated with future cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death) and cardiovascular death. Multivariable models adding lipid species to traditional risk factors were created using lipid ranking established from the Akaike information criterion within a 5-fold cross-validation framework. The results were tested on a diabetic case cohort from the ADVANCE study (n = 3,779).

RESULTS

Specific ceramide species, sphingolipids, phospholipids, and neutral lipids containing omega-6 fatty acids or odd-chain fatty acids were associated with future cardiovascular events (106 species) and cardiovascular death (139 species). The addition of 7 lipid species to a base model (11 conventional risk factors) resulted in an increase in the C-statistics from 0.629 (95% CI, 0.628-0.630) to 0.654 (95% CI, 0.653-0.656) for prediction of cardiovascular events and from 0.673 (95% CI, 0.671-0.675) to 0.727 (95% CI, 0.725-0.728) for prediction of cardiovascular death. Categorical net reclassification improvements for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death were 0.083 (95% CI, 0.081-0.086) and 0.166 (95% CI, 0.162-0.170), respectively. Evaluation on the ADVANCE case cohort demonstrated significant improvement on the base models.

CONCLUSIONS

The improvement in the prediction of cardiovascular outcomes, above conventional risk factors, demonstrates the potential of plasma lipidomic profiles as biomarkers for cardiovascular risk stratification in secondary prevention.

FUNDING

Bristol-Myers Squibb, the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (grants 211086, 358395, and 1029754), and the Operational Infrastructure Support Program of the Victorian government of Australia.

Baseline Characteristics of Participants in the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) Study

BACKGROUND

There are no primary prevention trials of aspirin with relevant geriatric outcomes in elderly people. ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) is a placebo-controlled trial of low-dose aspirin that will determine whether 5 years of daily 100-mg enteric-coated aspirin extends disability-free and dementia-free life in a healthy elderly population and whether these benefits outweigh the risks.

METHODS

Set in primary care, this randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial has a composite primary endpoint of death, incident dementia or persistent physical disability. Participants aged 70+ years (non-minorities) or 65+ years (U.S. minorities) were free of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or physical disability and without a contraindication to, or indication for, aspirin. Baseline data include physical and lifestyle, personal and family medical history, hemoglobin, fasting glucose, creatinine, lipid panel, urinary albumin:creatinine ratio, cognition (3MS, HVLT-R, COWAT, SDMT), mood (CES-D-10), physical function (gait speed, grip strength), Katz activities of daily living and quality of life (SF-12).

RESULTS

Recruitment ended in December 2014 with 16,703 Australian and 2,411 U.S. participants, a median age of 74 (range 65-98) years and 56% women. Approximately 55% of the U.S. cohort were from minority groups; 9% of the total cohort. Proportions with hypertension, overweight, and chronic kidney disease were similar to age-matched populations from both countries although lower percentages had diabetes, dyslipidemia, and osteoarthritis.

DISCUSSION

Findings from ASPREE will be generalizable to a healthier older population in both countries and will assess whether the broad benefits of daily low-dose aspirin in prolonging independent life outweigh the risks.

Rivaroxaban with or without Aspirin in Stable Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

We evaluated whether rivaroxaban alone or in combination with aspirin would be more effective than aspirin alone for secondary cardiovascular prevention.

METHODS

In this double-blind trial, we randomly assigned 27,395 participants with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease to receive rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) plus aspirin (100 mg once daily), rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily), or aspirin (100 mg once daily). The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The study was stopped for superiority of the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group after a mean follow-up of 23 months.

RESULTS

The primary outcome occurred in fewer patients in the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group than in the aspirin-alone group (379 patients [4.1%] vs. 496 patients [5.4%]; hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.86; P<0.001; z=-4.126), but major bleeding events occurred in more patients in the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group (288 patients [3.1%] vs. 170 patients [1.9%]; hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.40 to 2.05; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in intracranial or fatal bleeding between these two groups. There were 313 deaths (3.4%) in the rivaroxaban-plus-aspirin group as compared with 378 (4.1%) in the aspirin-alone group (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96; P=0.01; threshold P value for significance, 0.0025). The primary outcome did not occur in significantly fewer patients in the rivaroxaban-alone group than in the aspirin-alone group, but major bleeding events occurred in more patients in the rivaroxaban-alone group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease, those assigned to rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) plus aspirin had better cardiovascular outcomes and more major bleeding events than those assigned to aspirin alone. Rivaroxaban (5 mg twice daily) alone did not result in better cardiovascular outcomes than aspirin alone and resulted in more major bleeding events. (Funded by Bayer; COMPASS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01776424 .).

Persistent psychological distress and mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

A single assessment of psychological distress, which includes depression and anxiety, has been associated with increased mortality in patients with coronary heart disease, but the prognostic importance of persistence of distress symptoms is less certain.

AIM

To determine whether intermittent and/or persistent psychological distress is associated with long-term cardiovascular (CV) and total mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

METHODS

950 participants in the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease (LIPID) trial completed at least four General Health Questionnaires (GHQ-30) at baseline and after ½, 1, 2 and 4 years. In a landmark analysis from 4 years, Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the risk of CV and total mortality by increasing levels of psychological distress: never distressed, sometimes any severity (GHQ score >5), persistent mild (GHQ score >5 on three or more occasions) and persistent moderate distress (GHQ score >10) on three or more occasions, over a median of 12.1 (IQR 8.6-12.5) years. The models were both unadjusted and adjusted for known baseline risk factors.

RESULTS

Persistent moderate or greater psychological stress was reported on three or more assessments by 35 (3.7%) subjects. These patients had a higher risk of both CV death (adjusted HR 3.94, 95% CI 2.05 to 7.56, p<0.001) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 2.85, 95% CI 1.74 to 4.66, p<0.001) compared with patients with no distress. In contrast, patients who reported persistent mild distress (n=73, 7.7%) on three or more visits, and those who met criteria for distress on only one or two assessments (n=255, 26.8%), did not have an increased risk of CV or all-cause mortality during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

In patients with stable coronary artery disease, persistent psychological distress of at least moderate severity is associated with a substantial increase in CV and all-cause mortality.

Plasma Lipidomic Profiles Improve on Traditional Risk Factors for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND

Clinical lipid measurements do not show the full complexity of the altered lipid metabolism associated with diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease. Lipidomics enables the assessment of hundreds of lipid species as potential markers for disease risk.

METHODS

Plasma lipid species (310) were measured by a targeted lipidomic analysis with liquid chromatography electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry on a case-cohort (n=3779) subset from the ADVANCE trial (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation). The case-cohort was 61% male with a mean age of 67 years. All participants had type 2 diabetes mellitus with ≥1 additional cardiovascular risk factors, and 35% had a history of macrovascular disease. Weighted Cox regression was used to identify lipid species associated with future cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and cardiovascular death) and cardiovascular death during a 5-year follow-up period. Multivariable models combining traditional risk factors with lipid species were optimized with the Akaike information criteria. C statistics and NRIs were calculated within a 5-fold cross-validation framework.

RESULTS

Sphingolipids, phospholipids (including lyso- and ether- species), cholesteryl esters, and glycerolipids were associated with future cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death. The addition of 7 lipid species to a base model (14 traditional risk factors and medications) to predict cardiovascular events increased the C statistic from 0.680 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.678-0.682) to 0.700 (95% CI, 0.698-0.702; P<0.0001) with a corresponding continuous NRI of 0.227 (95% CI, 0.219-0.235). The prediction of cardiovascular death was improved with the incorporation of 4 lipid species into the base model, showing an increase in the C statistic from 0.740 (95% CI, 0.738-0.742) to 0.760 (95% CI, 0.757-0.762; P<0.0001) and a continuous net reclassification index of 0.328 (95% CI, 0.317-0.339). The results were validated in a subcohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus (n=511) from the LIPID trial (Long-Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease).

CONCLUSIONS

The improvement in the prediction of cardiovascular events, above traditional risk factors, demonstrates the potential of plasma lipid species as biomarkers for cardiovascular risk stratification in diabetes mellitus.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00145925.