Smoking, alcohol and caffeine in relation to two hormonal indicators of ovarian age during the reproductive years

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether or not cigarette smoking, alcohol and caffeine intake are related to two indicators of ovarian age-anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and follicle stimulating hormone (FSH).

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of 477 women with a recent index spontaneous abortion (SA) (105 trisomic, 93 non-trisomic) or livebirth (LB) (279) with hormones measured on days 2-4 of an apparently normal menstrual cycle after the index pregnancy.

RESULTS

Current smoking is associated with about a 15% increase in median FSH (β for ln(FSH)=0.14, 95% CI 0.03,0.25). It is not significantly related to AMH (β for ln(AMH)=-0.25, 95% CI -0.56,0.06). Neither alcohol 2-7days per week nor caffeine 122-<553mg per day is independently related to AMH or FSH.

CONCLUSIONS

The observation that current smoking is associated with FSH, but not with AMH, suggests that current smoking either impairs the development of antral follicles or dysregulates the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis. The absence of an association with AMH argues against mechanisms related to accelerated follicle atresia.

Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Risk of Stroke and Cardiac Events in Heart Failure: Data From the Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Ejection Fraction Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In heart failure (HF), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is inversely associated with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. Its relationship with stroke is controversial, as is the effect of antithrombotic treatment. We studied the relationship of LVEF with stroke and cardiovascular events in patients with HF and the effect of different antithrombotic treatments.

METHODS

In the Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) trial, 2305 patients with systolic HF (LVEF≤35%) and sinus rhythm were randomized to warfarin or aspirin and followed for 3.5±1.8 years. Although no differences between treatments were observed on primary outcome (death, stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage), warfarin decreased the stroke risk. The present report compares the incidence of stroke and cardiovascular events across different LVEF and treatment subgroups.

RESULTS

Baseline LVEF was inversely and linearly associated with primary outcome, mortality and its components (sudden and cardiovascular death), and HF hospitalization, but not myocardial infarction. A relationship with stroke was only observed for LVEF of <15% (incidence rates: 2.04 versus 0.95/100 patient-years; P=0.009), which more than doubled the adjusted stroke risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.125; 95% CI, 1.182-3.818; P=0.012). In warfarin-treated patients, each 5% LVEF decrement significantly increased the stroke risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.044-1.737; P=0.022; P value for interaction=0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with systolic HF and sinus rhythm, LVEF is inversely associated with death and its components, whereas an association with stroke exists for very low LVEF values. An interaction with warfarin treatment on stroke risk may exist.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00041938.

Tenecteplase versus alteplase in stroke thrombolysis: An individual patient data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background

Tenecteplase, a modified plasminogen activator with higher fibrin specificity and longer half-life, may have advantages over alteplase in acute ischemic stroke thrombolysis.

Aims

We undertook an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that compared alteplase with tenecteplase in acute stroke.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified by a MEDLINE search, and individual patient data were acquired. We compared clinical outcomes including modified Rankin Scale at three months, early neurological improvement at 24 h, intracerebral hemorrhage, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and mortality at three months between all dose tiers of tenecteplase and alteplase.

Results

Three relevant studies (Haley et al., Parsons et al., and ATTEST) included 291 patients and investigated three doses of tenecteplase (0.1, 0.25, 0.4 mg/kg). There were no differences between any dose of tenecteplase and alteplase for either efficacy or safety end points. Tenecteplase 0.25 mg/kg had the greatest odds to achieve early neurological improvement (OR [95%CI] 3.3 [1.5, 7.2], p = 0.093), excellent functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0–1) at three months (OR [95%CI] 1.9 [0.8, 4.4], p = 0.28), with reduced odds of intracerebral hemorrhage (OR [95%CI] 0.6 [0.2, 1.8], P = 0.43) compared with alteplase. Only 19 patients were treated with tenecteplase 0.4 mg/kg, which showed increased odds of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage compared with alteplase (OR [95% CI] 6.2 [0.7, 56.3]).

Conclusions

While no significant differences between tenecteplase and alteplase were found, point estimates suggest potentially greater efficacy of 0.25 and 0.1 mg/kg doses with no difference in symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and potentially higher symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage risk with the 0.4 mg/kg dose. Further investigation of 0.25 mg/kg tenecteplase is warranted.

Clinical and Echocardiographic Factors Associated With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure - Subanalysis of the WARCEF Trial

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) patients have a high incidence of new-onset AF. Given the adverse prognostic influence of AF in HF, identifying patients at high risk of developing AF is important.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The incidence and factors associated with new-onset AF were investigated in patients in sinus rhythm with reduced LVEF enrolled in the Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) trial. Analyses involved clinical factors alone (n=2,219), and clinical plus echocardiographic findings (n=1,125). During 3.5±1.8 years of follow-up, 212 patients (9.6% of total cohort) developed AF. In both samples, new-onset AF was associated with age, male sex, White race, and IHD. Among echocardiographic variables, only LAD predicted AF. On multivariate Cox modeling, age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.03, P=0.008), IHD (HR, 1.37; 95% CI: 1.02-1.84, P=0.036) and LAD (HR, 1.48; 95% CI: 1.15-1.91, P=0.003) remained associated with AF onset. Patients with IHD, LAD>4.5 cm and age>50 years had a 2.5-fold higher risk of AF than patients without any of these characteristics (HR, 2.52; 95% CI: 1.72-3.69, P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Age, IHD and LAD independently predict new-onset AF in HF patients in sinus rhythm, at younger age and smaller LAD than generally believed. This information may be useful to risk-stratify HF patients for AF development, allowing close monitoring and possibly early detection. (Circ J 2016; 80: 619-626).

Macrochimerism in Intestinal Transplantation: Association With Lower Rejection Rates and Multivisceral Transplants, Without GVHD

Blood chimerism has been reported sporadically among visceral transplant recipients, mostly in association with graft-vs-host disease (GVHD). We hypothesized that a higher degree of mixed chimerism would be observed in multivisceral (MVTx) than in isolated intestinal (iITx) and isolated liver transplant (iLTx) recipients, regardless of GVHD. We performed a longitudinal prospective study investigating multilineage blood chimerism with flow cytometry in 5 iITx and 4 MVTx recipients up to one year posttransplant. Although only one iITx patient experienced GVHD, T cell mixed chimerism was detected in 8 out of 9 iITx/MVTx recipients. Chimerism was significantly lower in the four subjects who displayed early moderate to severe rejection. Pre-formed high-titer donor-specific antibodies, bound in vivo to the circulating donor cells, were associated with an accelerated decline in chimerism. Blood chimerism was also studied in 10 iLTx controls. Among nonsensitized patients, MVTx recipients exhibited greater T and B cell chimerism than either iITx or iLTx recipients. Myeloid lineage chimerism was present exclusively among iLTx and MVTx (6/13) recipients, suggesting that its presence required the hepatic allograft. Our study demonstrates, for the first time, frequent T cell chimerism without GVHD following visceral transplantation and a possible relationship with reduced rejection rate in MVTx recipients.

Bleeding Risk and Antithrombotic Strategy in Patients With Sinus Rhythm and Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction Treated With Warfarin or Aspirin

We sought to assess the performance of existing bleeding risk scores, such as the Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly (HAS-BLED) score or the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI), in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in sinus rhythm (SR) treated with warfarin or aspirin. We calculated HAS-BLED and OBRI risk scores for 2,305 patients with HFrEF in SR enrolled in the Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction trial. Proportional hazards models were used to test whether each score predicted major bleeding, and comparison of different risk scores was performed using Harell C-statistic and net reclassification improvement index. For the warfarin arm, both scores predicted bleeding risk, with OBRI having significantly greater C-statistic (0.72 vs 0.61; p = 0.03) compared to HAS-BLED, although the net reclassification improvement for comparing OBRI to HAS-BLED was not significant (0.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.18 to 0.37). Performance of the OBRI and HAS-BLED risk scores was similar for the aspirin arm. For participants with OBRI scores of 0 to 1, warfarin compared with aspirin reduced ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 0.51, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.98, p = 0.042) without significantly increasing major bleeding (HR 1.24, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.30, p = 0.51). For those with OBRI score of ≥2, there was a trend for reduced ischemic stroke with warfarin compared to aspirin (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.15, p = 0.12), but major bleeding was increased (HR 4.04, 95% CI 1.99 to 8.22, p <0.001). In conclusion, existing bleeding risk scores can identify bleeding risk in patients with HFrEF in SR and could be tested for potentially identifying patients with a favorable risk/benefit profile for antithrombotic therapy with warfarin.

The futility study--Progress over the last decade

We review the futility clinical trial design (also known as the non-superiority design) with respect to its emergence and methodologic developments over the last decade, especially in regard to its application to clinical trials for neurological disorders. We discuss the design's strengths as a programmatic screening device to weed out unpromising new treatments, its limitations and pitfalls, and a recent critique of the logic of the method.

Quality of anticoagulation control in preventing adverse events in patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm: Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction trial substudy

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between time in the therapeutic range (TTR) and clinical outcomes in heart failure patients in sinus rhythm treated with warfarin.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) trial to assess the relationship of TTR with the WARCEF primary outcome (ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death), with death alone, ischemic stroke alone, major hemorrhage alone, and net clinical benefit (primary outcome and major hemorrhage combined). Multivariable Cox models were used to examine how the event risk changed with TTR and to compare the high TTR, low TTR, and aspirin-treated patients, with TTR being treated as a time-dependent covariate. A total of 2217 patients were included in the analyses; among whom 1067 were randomized to warfarin and 1150 were randomized to aspirin. The median (interquartile range) follow-up duration was 3.6 (2.0-5.0) years. Mean (±SD) age was 61±11.3 years, with 80% being men. The mean (±SD) TTR was 57% (±28.5%). Increasing TTR was significantly associated with reduction in primary outcome (adjusted P<0.001), death alone (adjusted P=0.001), and improved net clinical benefit (adjusted P<0.001). A similar trend was observed for the other 2 outcomes, but significance was not reached (adjusted P=0.082 for ischemic stroke and adjusted P=0.109 for major hemorrhage).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm, increasing TTR is associated with better outcome and improved net clinical benefit. Patients in whom good quality anticoagulation can be achieved may benefit from the use of anticoagulants.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00041938.

Selecting the right tool for the job

There are competing ethical concerns when it comes to designing any clinical research study. Clinical trials of possible treatments for Ebola virus are no exception. If anything, the competing ethical concerns are exacerbated in trying to find answers to a deadly, rapidly spreading, infectious disease. The primary goal of current research is to identify experimental therapies that can cure Ebola or cure it with reasonable probability in infected individuals. Pursuit of that goal must be methodologically sound, practical and consistent with prevailing norms governing human subjects research. Some maintain that only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with a placebo or standard-of-care arm can meet these conditions. We maintain that there are alternative trial designs that can do so as well and that sometimes these are preferable to RCTs.

Clinical and functional outcomes after 2 years in the early detection and intervention for the prevention of psychosis multisite effectiveness trial

OBJECTIVE

To test effectiveness of the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program in preventing the onset of severe psychosis and improving functioning in a national sample of at-risk youth.

METHODS

In a risk-based allocation study design, 337 youth (age 12-25) at risk of psychosis were assigned to treatment groups based on severity of positive symptoms. Those at clinically higher risk (CHR) or having an early first episode of psychosis (EFEP) were assigned to receive Family-aided Assertive Community Treatment (FACT); those at clinically lower risk (CLR) were assigned to receive community care. Between-groups differences on outcome variables were adjusted statistically according to regression-discontinuity procedures and evaluated using the Global Test Procedure that combined all symptom and functional measures.

RESULTS

A total of 337 young people (mean age: 16.6) were assigned to the treatment group (CHR + EFEP, n = 250) or comparison group (CLR, n = 87). On the primary variable, positive symptoms, after 2 years FACT, were superior to community care (2 df, p < .0001) for both CHR (p = .0034) and EFEP (p < .0001) subgroups. Rates of conversion (6.3% CHR vs 2.3% CLR) and first negative event (25% CHR vs 22% CLR) were low but did not differ. FACT was superior in the Global Test (p = .0007; p = .024 for CHR and p = .0002 for EFEP, vs CLR) and in improvement in participation in work and school (p = .025).

CONCLUSION

FACT is effective in improving positive, negative, disorganized and general symptoms, Global Assessment of Functioning, work and school participation and global outcome in youth at risk for, or experiencing very early, psychosis.

Recurrent stroke in the warfarin versus aspirin in reduced cardiac ejection fraction (WARCEF) trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

WARCEF randomized 2,305 patients in sinus rhythm with ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35% to warfarin (INR 2.0-3.5) or aspirin 325 mg. Warfarin reduced the incident ischemic stroke (IIS) hazard rate by 48% over aspirin in a secondary analysis. The IIS rate in heart failure (HF) is too low to warrant routine anticoagulation but epidemiologic studies show that prior stroke increases the stroke risk in HF. In this study, we explore IIS rates in WARCEF patients with and without baseline stroke to look for risk factors for IIS and determine if a subgroup with an IIS rate high enough to give a clinically relevant stroke risk reduction can be identified.

METHODS

We compared potential stroke risk factors between patients with baseline stroke and those without using the exact conditional score test for Poisson variables. We looked for risk factors for IIS, by comparing IIS rates between different risk factors. For EF we tried cut-off points of 10, 15 and 20%. The cut-off point 15% was used as it was the highest EF that was associated with a significant increase in IIS rate. IIS and EF strata were balanced as to warfarin/aspirin assignment by the stratified randomized design. A multiple Poisson regression examined the simultaneous effects of all risk factors on IIS rate. IIS rates per hundred patient years (/100 PY) were calculated in patient groups with significant risk factors. Missing values were assigned the modal value.

RESULTS

Twenty of 248 (8.1%) patients with baseline stroke and 64 of 2,048 (3.1%) without had IIS. IIS rate in patients with baseline stroke (2.37/100 PY) was greater than patients without (0.89/100 PY) (rate ratio 2.68, p < 0.001). Fourteen of 219 (6.4%) patients with ejection fraction (EF) <15% and 70 of 2,079 (3.4%) with EF ≥ 15% had IIS. In the multiple regression analysis stroke at baseline (p < 0.001) and EF <15% vs. ≥ 15% (p = 0.005) remained significant predictors of IIS. IIS rate was 2.04/100 PY in patients with EF <15% and 0.95/100 PY in patients with EF ≥ 15% (p = 0.009). IIS rate in patients with baseline stroke and reduced EF was 5.88/100 PY with EF <15% decreasing to 2.62/100 PY with EF <30%.

CONCLUSIONS

In a WARCEF exploratory analysis, prior stroke and EF <15% were risk factors for IIS. Further research is needed to determine if a clinically relevant stroke risk reduction is obtainable with warfarin in HF patients with prior stroke and reduced EF.

Diuretic response in patients with acute decompensated heart failure: characteristics and clinical outcome--an analysis from RELAX-AHF

Aims

We studied the characteristics and clinical outcome related to diuretic response and the effects of serelaxin in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF).

Methods and results

RELAX-AHF was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, enrolling 1161 patients admitted to hospital for AHF who were randomized to 48 h i.v infusions of placebo or serelaxin (30 µg/kg per day) within 16 h from presentation. Diuretic response was defined as Δ weight kg/[(total i.v. dose)/40 mg] + [(total oral dose)/80 mg)] furosemide (or equivalent loop diuretic dose) up to day 5. Median diuretic response was −0.42 (−1.00, −0.14) kg/40 mg. A poor diuretic response was independently associated with Western-like region (Western Europe, North America, Israel, and Poland), lower diastolic blood pressure, the absence of oedema, higher blood urea nitrogen, and lower levels of aspartate aminotransferase and potassium (all P < 0.01). Randomization to serelaxin was associated with lower doses of i.v. loop diuretics and slightly less weight loss, resulting in a neutral effect on diuretic response. Worse diuretic response was independently associated both with less relief of dyspnoea, measured with a visual analogue scale (VAS) at day 5 (primary endpoint; P = 0.0002), and with a higher risk of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for heart failure or renal failure through day 60 (secondary endpoint, P < 0.0001), but not with increased 180-day cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.507).

Conclusions

In patients hospitalized for AHF, a poor diuretic response was associated with a poor in-hospital and early post-discharge clinical outcome. Serelaxin had a neutral effect on diuretic response.

Trial registration: NCT00520806

Pretransplant IgG reactivity to apoptotic cells correlates with late kidney allograft loss

Preexisting serum antibodies have long been associated with graft loss in transplant recipients. While most studies have focused on HLA-specific antibodies, the contribution of non-HLA-reactive antibodies has been largely overlooked. We have recently characterized mAbs secreted by B cell clones derived from kidney allograft recipients with rejection that bind to apoptotic cells. Here, we assessed the presence of such antibodies in pretransplant serum from 300 kidney transplant recipients and examined their contribution to the graft outcomes. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that patients with high pretransplant IgG reactivity to apoptotic cells had a significantly increased rate of late graft loss. The effect was only apparent after approximately 1 year posttransplant. Moreover, the association between pretransplant IgG reactivity to apoptotic cells and graft loss was still significant after excluding patients with high reactivity to HLA. This reactivity was almost exclusively mediated by IgG1 and IgG3 with complement fixing and activating properties. Overall, our findings support the view that IgG reactive to apoptotic cells contribute to presensitization. Taking these antibodies into consideration alongside anti-HLA antibodies during candidate evaluation would likely improve the transplant risk assessment.

Abstract 53: Recurrent Stroke in the Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) Trial

Background: WARCEF randomized 2305 patients in sinus rhythm with ejection fraction (EF) ≤35% to warfarin (INR 2.0-3.5) or aspirin 325 mg. Warfarin reduced the incident ischemic stroke (IIS) hazard rate by 48% over aspirin in a secondary analysis. The IIS rate in heart failure (HF) is too low to warrant routine anticoagulation but epidemiologic studies show that prior stroke increases the stroke risk in HF. We here explore IIS rates in WARCEF patients with and without baseline stroke to determine if a subgroup with an IIS rate high enough (3-5 per 100 patient-years [PY]) to give a clinically relevant warfarin effect can be identified.

Methods: We compared the IIS rate between patients with baseline stroke and those without using the exact conditional score test for Poisson variables. We looked for risk factors for IIS , by comparing IIS rates between different levels of each potential risk factor. For EF we tried cut-off points of 10%, 15% and 20%. 15% was used as it was the highest EF that was associated with a significant increase in IIS rate. IIS and EF strata were balanced as to warfarin/aspirin assignment by the stratified randomized design. A multiple Poisson regression examined the simultaneous effects of all risk factors on IIS rate. Missing values were assigned the modal value.

Results: Twenty of 248 (8.1%) patients with baseline stroke and 64 of 2048 (3.1%) without had IIS. IIS rates in patients with baseline stroke were significantly greater compared to patients without (rate ratio 2.67; 2.37 per 100PY and 0.89 per 100PY, respectively, p=0.0004). Fourteen of 219 (6.4%) patients with EF<15% and 70 of 2079 (3.4%) with EF ≥15% had IIS. IIS rates in patients with EF<15% and patients with EF ≥15% were 2.04 per 100PY and 0.95 per 100PY, respectively (p=0.012). IIS rate in patients with baseline stroke and EF<15% was 5.88 per 100PY. In the multiple Poisson regression analysis only stroke at baseline (p=0.0001) and EF<15% vs. ≥15% (p=.005) remained significant predictors of IIS.

Conclusions: In a WARCEF exploratory analysis, prior stroke and EF<15% were risk factors for IIS. A clinically relevant stroke risk reduction might be obtainable with warfarin in HF patients with prior stroke and EF<15%.

On an Inequality That Implies the Lower Bound Formula for the Probability of Correct Selection in the Levin-Robbins-Leu Family of Sequential Binomial Subset Selection Procedures

We study a key inequality that implies the lower bound formula for the probability of correct selection and other selection-related events of interest in the Levin-Robbins-Leu family of sequential binomial subset selection procedures. We present a strategy for the proof of the key inequality, and a mostly-complete general proof is given. The strategy provides an entirely complete and rigorous proof of the inequality for as many as seven competing populations using computer-assisted symbolic manipulation.

Benefit of warfarin compared with aspirin in patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm: a subgroup analysis of WARCEF, a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) trial found no difference in the primary outcome between warfarin and aspirin in 2305 patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction in sinus rhythm. However, it is unknown whether any subgroups benefit from warfarin or aspirin.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a Cox model stepwise selection procedure to identify subgroups that may benefit from warfarin or aspirin on the WARCEF primary outcome. A secondary analysis added major hemorrhage to the outcome. The primary efficacy outcome was time to the first to occur of ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death. Only age group was a significant treatment effect modifier (P for interaction, 0.003). Younger patients benefited from warfarin over aspirin on the primary outcome (4.81 versus 6.76 events per 100 patient-years: hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.84; P=0.001). In older patients, therapies did not differ (9.91 versus 9.01 events per 100 patient-years: hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.35; P=0.44). With major hemorrhage added, in younger patients the event rate remained lower for warfarin than aspirin (5.41 versus 7.25 per 100 patient-years: hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.89; P=0.005), but in older patients it became significantly higher for warfarin (11.80 versus 9.35 per 100 patient-years: hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.53; P=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients <60 years, warfarin improved outcomes over aspirin with or without inclusion of major hemorrhage. In patients ≥60 years, there was no treatment difference, but the aspirin group had significantly better outcomes when major hemorrhage was included.

Overview, hurdles, and future work in adaptive designs: perspectives from a National Institutes of Health-funded workshop

BACKGROUND

The clinical trials community has a never-ending search for dependable and reliable ways to improve clinical research. This exploration has led to considerable interest in adaptive clinical trial designs, which provide the flexibility to adjust trial characteristics on the basis of data reviewed at interim stages. Statisticians and clinical investigators have proposed or implemented a wide variety of adaptations in clinical trials, but specific approaches have met with differing levels of support. Within industry, investigators are actively exploring the benefits and pitfalls associated with adaptive designs (ADs). For example, a Drug Information Association (DIA) working group on ADs has engaged regulatory agencies in discussions. Many researchers working on publicly funded clinical trials, however, are not yet fully engaged in this discussion. We organized the Scientific Advances in Adaptive Clinical Trial Designs Workshop to begin a conversation about using ADs in publicly funded research. Held in November of 2009, the 1½-day workshop brought together representatives from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the pharmaceutical industry, nonprofit foundations, the patient advocacy community, and academia. The workshop offered a forum for participants to address issues of ADs that arise at the planning, designing, and execution stages of clinical trials, and to hear the perspectives of influential members of the clinical trials community. The participants also set forth recommendations for guiding action to promote the appropriate use of ADs. These recommendations have since been presented, discussed, and vetted in a number of venues including the University of Pennsylvania Conference on Statistical Issues in Clinical Trials and the Society for Clinical Trials annual meeting.

PURPOSE

To provide a brief overview of ADs, describe the rationale behind conducting the workshop, and summarize the main recommendations that were produced as a result of this workshop.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a growing interest in the use of adaptive clinical trial designs. However, a number of logistical barriers need to be addressed in order to obtain the potential advantages of an AD. Currently, the pharmaceutical industry is well ahead of academic trialists with respect to addressing these barriers. Academic trialists will need to address important issues such as education, infrastructure, modifications to existing funding models, and the impact on Data and Safety Monitoring Boards (DSMB) in order to achieve the possible benefits of adaptive clinical trial designs.

Social Norms and Global Environmental Challenges: The Complex Interaction of Behaviors, Values, and Policy

Government policies are needed when people's behaviors fail to deliver the public good. Those policies will be most effective if they can stimulate long-term changes in beliefs and norms, creating and reinforcing the behaviors needed to solidify and extend the public good.It is often the short-term acceptability of potential policies, rather than their longer-term efficacy, that determines their scope and deployment. The policy process should consider both time scales. The academy, however, has provided insufficient insight on the coevolution of social norms and different policy instruments, thus compromising the capacity of decision makers to craft effective solutions to the society's most intractable environmental problems. Life scientists could make fundamental contributions to this agenda through targeted research on the emergence of social norms.

Note on an Identity Between Two Unbiased Variance Estimators for the Grand Mean in a Simple Random Effects Model

We demonstrate the algebraic equivalence of two unbiased variance estimators for the sample grand mean in a random sample of subjects from an infinite population where subjects provide repeated observations following a homoscedastic random effects model.

Relapse risk after discontinuation of risperidone in Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Among patients with Alzheimer's disease who have had a response to antipsychotic medication for psychosis or agitation-aggression, the risk of a recurrence of symptoms after discontinuation of the medication has not been established.

METHODS

Patients with Alzheimer's disease and psychosis or agitation-aggression received open-label treatment with risperidone for 16 weeks. Those who had a response to risperidone therapy were then randomly assigned, in a double-blind fashion, to one of three regimens: continued risperidone therapy for 32 weeks (group 1), risperidone therapy for 16 weeks followed by placebo for 16 weeks (group 2), or placebo for 32 weeks (group 3). The primary outcome was the time to relapse of psychosis or agitation.

RESULTS

A total of 180 patients received open-label risperidone (mean dose, 0.97 mg daily). The severity of psychosis and agitation were reduced, although there was a mild increase in extrapyramidal signs; 112 patients met the criteria for response to treatment, of whom 110 underwent randomization. In the first 16 weeks after randomization, the rate of relapse was higher in the group that received placebo than in the groups that received risperidone (60% [24 of 40 patients in group 3] vs. 33% [23 of 70 in groups 1 and 2]; P=0.004; hazard ratio with placebo, 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 3.45; P=0.02). During the next 16 weeks, the rate of relapse was higher in the group that was switched from risperidone to placebo than in the group that continued to receive risperidone (48% [13 of 27 patients in group 2] vs. 15% [2 of 13 in group 1]; P=0.02; hazard ratio, 4.88; 95% CI, 1.08 to 21.98; P=0.02). The rates of adverse events and death after randomization did not differ significantly among the groups, although comparisons were based on small numbers of patients, especially during the final 16 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with Alzheimer's disease who had psychosis or agitation that had responded to risperidone therapy for 4 to 8 months, discontinuation of risperidone was associated with an increased risk of relapse. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00417482.).