Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Pat Gallagher M, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Pugliese A, Sanders-Branca N, Ray Arce LA, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Peterson Eck S, Finney L, Albright Fischer T, Martin A, Jacqueline Muzamhindo C, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Jo Ricci M, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Teresa Muscato M, Viscardi M, Bingley P, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del A, Rio A, Logan H, Collier C, Rishton G, Whalley A, Ali S, Ramtoola T, Quattrin L, Mastrandea A, House M, Ecker C, Huang C, Gougeon J, Ho D, Pacuad D, Dunger J, May C, O’Brien C, Acerini B, Salgin A, Thankamony R, Williams J, Buse G, Fuller M, Duclos J, Tricome H, Brown D, Pittard D, Bowlby A, Blue T, Headley S, Bendre K, Lewis K, Sutphin C, Soloranzo J, Puskaric H, Madison M, Rincon M, Carlucci R, Shridharani B, Rusk E, Tessman D, Huffman H, Abrams B, Biederman M, Jones V, Leathers W, Brickman P, Petrie D, Zimmerman J, Howard L, Miller R, Alemzadeh D, Mihailescu R, Melgozza-Walker N, Abdulla C, Boucher-Berry D, Ize-Ludlow R, Levy C, Swenson, Brousell N, Crimmins D, Edler T, Weis C, Schultz D, Rogers D, Latham C, Mawhorter C, Switzer W, Spencer P, Konstantnopoulus S, Broder J, Klein L, Knight L, Szadek G, Welnick B, Thompson R, Hoffman A, Revell J, Cherko K, Carter E, Gilson J, Haines G, Arthur B, Bowen W, Zipf P, Graves R, Lozano D, Seiple K, Spicer A, Chang J, Fregosi J, Harbinson C, Paulson S, Stalters P, Wright D, Zlock A, Freeth J, Victory H, Maheshwari A, Maheshwari T, Holmstrom J, Bueno R, Arguello J, Ahern L, Noreika V, Watson S, Hourse P, Breyer C, Kissel Y, Nicholson M, Pfeifer S, Almazan J, Bajaj M, Quinn K, Funk J, McCance E, Moreno R, Veintimilla A, Wells J, Cook S, Trunnel J, Henske S, Desai K, Frizelis F, Khan R, Sjoberg K, Allen P, Manning G, Hendry B, Taylor S, Jones W, Strader M, Bencomo T, Bailey L, Bedolla C, Roldan C, Moudiotis B, Vaidya C, Anning S, Bunce S, Estcourt E, Folland E, Gordon C, Harrill J, Ireland J, Piper L, Scaife K, Sutton S, Wilkins M, Costelloe J, Palmer L, Casas C, Miller M, Burgard C, Erickson J, Hallanger-Johnson P, Clark W, Taylor A, Lafferty S, Gillett C, Nolan M, Pathak L, Sondrol T, Hjelle S, Hafner J, Kotrba R, Hendrickson A, Cemeroglu T, Symington M, Daniel Y, Appiagyei-Dankah D, Postellon M, Racine L, Kleis K, Barnes S, Godwin H, McCullough K, Shaheen G, Buck L, Noel M, Warren S, Weber S, Parker I, Gillespie B, Nelson C, Frost J, Amrhein E, Moreland A, Hayes J, Peggram J, Aisenberg M, Riordan J, Zasa E, Cummings K, Scott T, Pinto A, Mokashi K, McAssey E, Helden P, Hammond L, Dinning S, Rahman S, Ray C, Dimicri S, Guppy H, Nielsen C, Vogel C, Ariza L, Morales Y, Chang R, Gabbay L, Ambrocio L, Manley R, Nemery W, Charlton P, Smith L, Kerr B, Steindel-Kopp M, Alamaguer D, Liljenquist G, Browning T, Coughenour M, Sulk E, Tsalikan M, Tansey J, Cabbage N. Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years.

RESULTS

At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.

Towards Understanding the Origin of Cosmic-Ray Positrons

Precision measurements of cosmic ray positrons are presented up to 1 TeV based on 1.9 million positrons collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station. The positron flux exhibits complex energy dependence. Its distinctive properties are (a) a significant excess starting from 25.2±1.8  GeV compared to the lower-energy, power-law trend, (b) a sharp dropoff above 284_{-64}^{+91}  GeV, (c) in the entire energy range the positron flux is well described by the sum of a term associated with the positrons produced in the collision of cosmic rays, which dominates at low energies, and a new source term of positrons, which dominates at high energies, and (d) a finite energy cutoff of the source term of E_{s}=810_{-180}^{+310}  GeV is established with a significance of more than 4σ. These experimental data on cosmic ray positrons show that, at high energies, they predominantly originate either from dark matter annihilation or from other astrophysical sources.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del Rio A, Logan A, Collier H, Rishton C, Whalley G, Ali A, Ramtoola S, Quattrin T, Mastrandea L, House A, Ecker M, Huang C, Gougeon C, Ho J, Pacuad D, Dunger D, May J, O’Brien C, Acerini C, Salgin B, Thankamony A, Williams R, Buse J, Fuller G, Duclos M, Tricome J, Brown H, Pittard D, Bowlby D, Blue A, Headley T, Bendre S, Lewis K, Sutphin K, Soloranzo C, Puskaric J, Madison H, Rincon M, Carlucci M, Shridharani R, Rusk B, Tessman E, Huffman D, Abrams H, Biederman B, Jones M, Leathers V, Brickman W, Petrie P, Zimmerman D, Howard J, Miller L, Alemzadeh R, Mihailescu D, Melgozza-Walker R, Abdulla N, Boucher-Berry C, Ize-Ludlow D, Levy R, Swenson Brousell C, Scott R, Heenan H, Lunt H, Kendall D, Willis J, Darlow B, Crimmins N, Edler D, Weis T, Schultz C, Rogers D, Latham D, Mawhorter C, Switzer C, Spencer W, Konstantnopoulus P, Broder S, Klein J, Bachrach B, Gardner M, Eichelberger D, Knight L, Szadek L, Welnick G, Thompson B, Hoffman R, Revell A, Cherko J, Carter K, Gilson E, Haines J, Arthur G, Bowen B, Zipf W, Graves P, Lozano R, Seiple D, Spicer K, Chang A, Fregosi J, Harbinson J, Paulson C, Stalters S, Wright P, Zlock D, Freeth A, Victory J, Maheshwari H, Maheshwari A, Holmstrom T, Bueno J, Arguello R, Ahern J, Noreika L, Watson V, Hourse S, Breyer P, Kissel C, Nicholson Y, Pfeifer M, Almazan S, Bajaj J, Quinn M, Funk K, McCance J, Moreno E, Veintimilla R, Wells A, Cook J, Trunnel S, Transue D, Surhigh J, Bezzaire D, Moltz K, Zacharski E, Henske J, Desai S, Frizelis K, Khan F, Sjoberg R, Allen K, Manning P, Hendry G, Taylor B, Jones S, Couch R, Danchak R, Lieberman D, Strader W, Bencomo M, Bailey T, Bedolla L, Roldan C, Moudiotis C, Vaidya B, Anning C, Bunce S, Estcourt S, Folland E, Gordon E, Harrill C, Ireland J, Piper J, Scaife L, Sutton K, Wilkins S, Costelloe M, Palmer J, Casas L, Miller C, Burgard M, Erickson C, Hallanger-Johnson J, Clark P, Taylor W, Galgani J, Banerjee S, Banda C, McEowen D, Kinman R, Lafferty A, Gillett S, Nolan C, Pathak M, Sondrol L, Hjelle T, Hafner S, Kotrba J, Hendrickson R, Cemeroglu A, Symington T, Daniel M, Appiagyei-Dankah Y, Postellon D, Racine M, Kleis L, Barnes K, Godwin S, McCullough H, Shaheen K, Buck G, Noel L, Warren M, Weber S, Parker S, Gillespie I, Nelson B, Frost C, Amrhein J, Moreland E, Hayes A, Peggram J, Aisenberg J, Riordan M, Zasa J, Cummings E, Scott K, Pinto T, Mokashi A, McAssey K, Helden E, Hammond P, Dinning L, Rahman S, Ray S, Dimicri C, Guppy S, Nielsen H, Vogel C, Ariza C, Morales L, Chang Y, Gabbay R, Ambrocio L, Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Observation of Complex Time Structures in the Cosmic-Ray Electron and Positron Fluxes with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We present high-statistics, precision measurements of the detailed time and energy dependence of the primary cosmic-ray electron flux and positron flux over 79 Bartels rotations from May 2011 to May 2017 in the energy range from 1 to 50 GeV. For the first time, the charge-sign dependent modulation during solar maximum has been investigated in detail by leptons alone. Based on 23.5×10^{6} events, we report the observation of short-term structures on the timescale of months coincident in both the electron flux and the positron flux. These structures are not visible in the e^{+}/e^{-} flux ratio. The precision measurements across the solar polarity reversal show that the ratio exhibits a smooth transition over 830±30 days from one value to another. The midpoint of the transition shows an energy dependent delay relative to the reversal and changes by 260±30 days from 1 to 6 GeV.

Precision Measurement of Cosmic-Ray Nitrogen and its Primary and Secondary Components with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

A precision measurement of the nitrogen flux with rigidity (momentum per unit charge) from 2.2 GV to 3.3 TV based on 2.2×10^{6} events is presented. The detailed rigidity dependence of the nitrogen flux spectral index is presented for the first time. The spectral index rapidly hardens at high rigidities and becomes identical to the spectral indices of primary He, C, and O cosmic rays above ∼700  GV. We observed that the nitrogen flux Φ_{N} can be presented as the sum of its primary component Φ_{N}^{P} and secondary component Φ_{N}^{S}, Φ_{N}=Φ_{N}^{P}+Φ_{N}^{S}, and we found Φ_{N} is well described by the weighted sum of the oxygen flux Φ_{O} (primary cosmic rays) and the boron flux Φ_{B} (secondary cosmic rays), with Φ_{N}^{P}=(0.090±0.002)×Φ_{O} and Φ_{N}^{S}=(0.62±0.02)×Φ_{B} over the entire rigidity range. This corresponds to a change of the contribution of the secondary cosmic ray component in the nitrogen flux from 70% at a few GV to <30% above 1 TV.

Observation of Fine Time Structures in the Cosmic Proton and Helium Fluxes with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We present the precision measurement from May 2011 to May 2017 (79 Bartels rotations) of the proton fluxes at rigidities from 1 to 60 GV and the helium fluxes from 1.9 to 60 GV based on a total of 1×10^{9} events collected with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer aboard the International Space Station. This measurement is in solar cycle 24, which has the solar maximum in April 2014. We observed that, below 40 GV, the proton flux and the helium flux show nearly identical fine structures in both time and relative amplitude. The amplitudes of the flux structures decrease with increasing rigidity and vanish above 40 GV. The amplitudes of the structures are reduced during the time period, which started one year after solar maximum, when the proton and helium fluxes steadily increase. Above ∼3  GV the p/He flux ratio is time independent. We observed that below ∼3  GV the ratio has a long-term decrease coinciding with the period during which the fluxes start to rise.

Vegetation dynamics associated with changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate in hardwood forests of Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, USA

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively.

Abstract OT2-06-03: METAMORPH: METAstatic markers of recurrent tumor PHenotype for breast cancer

Up to 30% of patients diagnosed with breast cancer will develop recurrent disease within their lifetime, and currently this form of the disease is incurable. There are unmet needs to better understand underlying metastatic biology, identify new therapeutic targets and develop better methods for monitoring changes in disease, both to monitor response and elucidate resistance mechanisms. To address these needs, the METAMORPH Study encompasses a comprehensive approach that combines serial molecular tissue profiling at the RNA and DNA level with circulating markers (DTCs, CTCs, plasma tumor DNA), and ongoing assessment of therapeutic response.

METAMORPH is a prospective cohort study of women with suspected or confirmed recurrent breast cancer and accessible tumor by standard clinical biopsy, who are enrolled at the University of Pennsylvania prior to starting a new therapy for recurrent metastatic disease. The aims of this trial are to (1) evaluate the mechanisms through which recurrent breast cancer are genetically distinct from the primary tumor, (2) evaluate the circulating tumor biomarker trajectory of recurrent disease, (3) elucidate “escape pathways” of progressing tumors that emerge during the selective pressure of therapy, and (4) explore clinical utility of tumor and blood testing. The study protocol integrates research aims into clinical care, including a standardized approach to disease assessment and biopsy, pathologic confirmation of histology and receptor subtype, panel-based CLIA-approved genomic profiling, collection of research specimens, and standardized reporting of results, which are returned to patients and physicians. Patients are followed for treatment and outcome, and serial samples are collected at progression. A companion protocol, COMET, provides education about genomic testing and assesses patient understanding and impact of results. To date, 155 patients have enrolled, 142 (92%) have been biopsied, 120 (77%) have had sufficient DNA for molecular profiling and 109 (70%) have had genomic panel testing. Accrual is ongoing, with an initial target of 300 patients. Multiple sites within the UPHS Health System are enrolling. Contact information: angela.demichele@uphs.upenn.edu.

Key words: Metastatic disease, tumor profiling.

Citation Format: DeMichele A, Soucier-Ernst DJ, Clark C, Shih N, Stavropoulos W, Maxwell KN, Feldman M, Lierbamen D, Morrissette JJD, Paul MR, Pan T-C, Wang J, Belka GK, Chen Y, Yee S, Carpenter E, Fox K, Matro J, Clark A, Shah P, Domchek S, Bradbury A, Chodosh L. METAMORPH: METAstatic markers of recurrent tumor PHenotype for breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT2-06-03.

Abstract PD8-04: Evolutionary history and genomic landscape of metastatic breast cancer

Background: The majority of deaths from breast cancer are due to distant metastatic disease. Despite this, few systematic genomic analyses have been performed on metastatic tumors. This results from the relative difficulty of performing biopsies on metastatic tumors, as well as the uncertainty regarding genomic determinism, according to which the majority of actionable mutations present in metastases can be discovered in the primary tumor.

Methods: “METAMORPH” is an ongoing prospective cohort study of women with suspected or confirmed recurrent breast cancer enrolled prior to starting a new therapy for recurrent metastatic disease. Biopsies of metastatic lesions were performed under radiologic guidance, and archival primary tumors were subsequently obtained. WES and sWGS were performed to determine coding mutations and aberrant copy-number in metastatic tumors from 67 patients, 33 of which were assayed with corresponding matched primary tumors.

Results: Using Bayesian approaches, we find that cancers fit one of two patterns: canonical linear evolution (whereby the metastatic tumor arises from one or more advanced primary tumor subclones) vs. branched evolution (whereby both primary and metastatic tumors develop mutations that go on to become clonal within their respective tumors after the time of dissemination). In cases where tumors show evidence of branched evolution or small subclone dissemination, we expect that a large proportion of mutations may not be represented in both the primary and corresponding metastatic tumors. Indeed, primary-metastatic tumor pairs show substantial discordance at the genomic level, sharing only ˜30% of mutations and ˜28% of copy-number alterations on average. Furthermore, we find that metastatic tumors have decreased clonal heterogeneity, suggesting a history of selection. Indeed, we find clinically relevant mutations that are present exclusively in the primary or the corresponding recurrent metastatic tumor, as well as genes that are recurrently altered in metastatic tumors, such as amplification of SRC-1, loss of genes encoding CDK inhibitors, and alterations in JAK1/2/3.Finally, compared to the primary tumors from which they arose, metastatic tumors exhibit increased frequencies of alterations in several discrete pathways, including those involving the extracellular matrix as well as PI3K/AKT/mTOR, estrogen, and HER2 signaling.

Conclusions: The low degree of genomic concordance between primary and metastatic tumors due to evolutionary distance, as well as the presence of activating and targetable mutations specifically in metastatic tumors, suggests that there is value in comprehensively characterizing metastatic tumors to inform patient treatment and identify novel targets underlying breast cancer progression.

Citation Format: Paul MR, Pan T-C, Pant D, Belka GK, Chen Y, Shih N, Lieberman D, Morrissette JJD, Soucier-Ernst D, Clark C, Stavropoulos W, Maxwell K, Feldman M, DeMichele A, Chodosh LA. Evolutionary history and genomic landscape of metastatic breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD8-04.

Are early-life antecedents of suicide mortality associated with psychiatric disorders and suicidal ideation in midlife?

OBJECTIVE

To establish whether previously identified early-life antecedents of suicide mortality (i.e. low birthweight, younger maternal age, higher birth order, externalizing problems and adversities) are associated with proximal psychiatric disorders and suicidal ideation, which are themselves associated with an increased risk of suicide.

METHODS

Participants were from the 1958 British birth-cohort (N = 8905) with information on prenatal/childhood experiences and the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised at age 45 years. Outcomes were as follows: any internalizing disorder (anxiety disorder/depressive episode), depressive episode, alcohol use disorder and suicidal ideation.

RESULTS

After adjustment, higher birth order (P_trend = 0.043), younger maternal age (P_trend = 0.017) and increased number of childhood adversities (P_trend = 0.026) were associated with an increased risk of internalizing disorders. For example, the OR (95% CI) in fourth- or later-born children was 1.48 (1.06-2.07) and for young maternal age (<19 years) was 1.31 (0.89-1.91). Effect sizes were similar in magnitude for depressive episode and suicidal ideation, although associations did not reach conventional significance levels. No associations were found for low birthweight and externalizing problems (in males) and investigated outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Associations for younger maternal age, higher birth order and adversities with adult internalizing disorders suggest that psychiatric disorders may be on the pathway linking some early-life factors and suicide.

Observation of New Properties of Secondary Cosmic Rays Lithium, Beryllium, and Boron by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We report on the observation of new properties of secondary cosmic rays Li, Be, and B measured in the rigidity (momentum per unit charge) range 1.9 GV to 3.3 TV with a total of 5.4×10^{6} nuclei collected by AMS during the first five years of operation aboard the International Space Station. The Li and B fluxes have an identical rigidity dependence above 7 GV and all three fluxes have an identical rigidity dependence above 30 GV with the Li/Be flux ratio of 2.0±0.1. The three fluxes deviate from a single power law above 200 GV in an identical way. This behavior of secondary cosmic rays has also been observed in the AMS measurement of primary cosmic rays He, C, and O but the rigidity dependences of primary cosmic rays and of secondary cosmic rays are distinctly different. In particular, above 200 GV, the secondary cosmic rays harden more than the primary cosmic rays.