Rapid on-chip genetic detection microfluidic platform for real world applications

The development of genetic detection protocols for field applications is an important aspect of modern medical diagnostic technology and environmental monitoring. In this paper, we report a rapid, portable, and inexpensive DNA hybridization technique using a bead-based microfluidic platform that functions by passing fluorescently labeled target DNA through a chamber packed with functionalized beads within a microfluidic channel. DNA hybridization is then assessed using a digital camera attached to a Clare Chemical DR-45M dark reader non-UV transilluminator that uses visible light as an excitation source and a blue and amber filter to reveal fluorescence. This microfluidic approach significantly enhances hybridization by reducing the diffusion time between target DNA and the silica surface. The use of probe-functionalized beads as solid support also enhances the sensitivity and limit of detection due to a larger surface area per unit volume. This platform could be adapted for use in medical applications and environmental monitoring, including the detection of harmful organisms in the ballast water of ships.

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Preventing the spread of invasive species: economic benefits of intervention guided by ecological predictions

Preventing the invasion of freshwater aquatic species is the surest way to reduce their impacts, but it is also often expensive. Hence, the most efficient prevention programs will rely on accurate predictions of sites most at risk of becoming invaded and concentrate resources at those sites. Using data from Vilas County, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), collected in the 1970s, we constructed a predictive occurrence model for rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) and applied it to an independent data set of 48 Vilas County lakes to predict which of these were most likely to become invaded between 1975 and 2005. We nested this invasion model within an economic framework to determine whether targeted management, derived from our quantitative predictions of likely invasion sites, would increase the economic value of lakes in the independent data set. Although the optimum expenditure on lake protection was high, protecting lakes at this level would have produced net economic benefits of at least $6 million over the last 30 years. We did not attempt to determine the value of nonmarket benefits of protection; thus, our results are likely to underestimate the total benefits from preventing invasions. Our results demonstrate that although few data are available early in an invasion, these data may be sufficient to support targeted, effective, and economically rational management. In addition, our results show that ecological predictions are becoming sufficiently accurate that their application in management can produce net economic benefits.

Predicting the range of Chinese mitten crabs in Europe

Ecological niche modeling provides a means for predicting the potential future distribution of a nonindigenous species based on environmental characteristics of the species' native range. We applied this method to the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), a catadromous crustacean with a long history of invasion in Europe. We used genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction to predict the potential European distribution of mitten crab based on its distribution in 42 locations in its native Asia. The climatic variables, air temperature, number of days, amount of precipitation, and wetness index, contributed significantly to predictions of native distribution limits. Although the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model was developed for the native range, the species' extensive distribution in Europe (n =434) allowed independent validation of the predictions. Application of the model to Europe was successful, with 84% of occurrences in regions predicted to be suitable by >80% of the models and <4% of occurrences in areas predicted suitable by <50% of the models (mainly along the northern range). At the watershed scale, areas with established mitten crab populations had significantly higher habitat matching than sites that were not invaded. The independent validation of the Asian-based model by the European distribution revealed that predictions were highly accurate. The model also identified large areas of Europe, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, as vulnerable to future invasion. These predictions can be used to develop strategies to control the spread of mitten crab by preventing introductions into vulnerable areas.

Forecasting the expansion of zebra mussels in the United States

Because zebra mussels spread rapidly throughout the eastern United States in the late 1980s and early 1990s, their spread to the western United States has been expected. Overland dispersal into inland lakes and reservoirs, however, has occurred at a much slower rate than earlier spread via connected, navigable waterways. We forecasted the potential western spread of zebra mussels by predicting the overland movement of recreational boaters with a production-constrained gravity model. We also predicted the potential abundance of zebra mussels in two western reservoirs by comparing their water chemistry characteristics with those of water bodies with known abundances of zebra mussels. Most boats coming from waters infested with zebra mussels were taken to areas that already had zebra mussels, but a small proportion of such boats did travel west of the 100th meridian. If zebra mussels do establish in western U.S. water bodies, we predict that population densities could achieve similar levels to those in the Midwestern United States, where zebra mussels have caused considerable economic and ecological impacts. Our analyses suggest that the dispersal of zebra mussels to the western United States is an event of low probability but potentially high impact on native biodiversity and human infrastructure. Combining these results with economic analyses could help determine appropriate investment levels in prevention and control strategies.

Predicting invasion risk using measures of introduction effort and environmental niche models

The Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) is native to east Asia, is established throughout Europe, and is introduced but geographically restricted in North America. We developed and compared two separate environmental niche models using genetic algorithm for rule set prediction (GARP) and mitten crab occurrences in Asia and Europe to predict the species' potential distribution in North America. Since mitten crabs must reproduce in water with >15% per hundred salinity, we limited the potential North American range to freshwater habitats within the highest documented dispersal distance (1260 km) and a more restricted dispersal limit (354 km) from the sea. Applying the higher dispersal distance, both models predicted the lower Great Lakes, most of the eastern seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and southern extent of the Mississippi River watershed, and the Pacific northwest as suitable environment for mitten crabs, but environmental match for southern states (below 35 degrees N) was much lower for the European model. Use of the lower range with both models reduced the expected range, especially in the Great Lakes, Mississippi drainage, and inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. To estimate the risk of introduction of mitten crabs, the amount of reported ballast water discharge into major United States ports from regions in Asia and Europe with established mitten crab populations was used as an index of introduction effort. Relative risk of invasion was estimated based on a combination of environmental match and volume of unexchanged ballast water received (July 1999-December 2003) for major ports. The ports of Norfolk and Baltimore were most vulnerable to invasion and establishment, making Chesapeake Bay the most likely location to be invaded by mitten crabs in the United States. The next highest risk was predicted for Portland, Oregon. Interestingly, the port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, which has a large shipping volume, had a low risk of invasion. Ports such as Jacksonville, Florida, had a medium risk owing to small shipping volume but high environmental match. This study illustrates that the combination of environmental niche- and vector-based models can provide managers with more precise estimates of invasion risk than can either of these approaches alone.

Evaluating an invasive species policy: ballast water exchange in the Great Lakes

Improvements in environmental policy require an accurate diagnosis of the shortcomings of existing policy. We develop a model for assessing the efficacy of policy instruments aimed at reducing the introduction of nonindigenous species. The model identifies and accounts for several features of the nonindigenous species introduction-detection process that complicate interpretations of monitoring data. Specifically, the model includes explicit attention to the pathway of introduction, a probabilistic description of species detection, and the possibility of attenuation of species introductions over time. We apply this theoretical model to the case of mid-ocean ballast water exchange, which was implemented by the United States in 1990 for the North American Great Lakes. Contrary to other authors who take the recent increase in discoveries of nonindigeneous species (NIS) in the Great Lakes as evidence that ballast water exchange is ineffective, we find that the observed detection record could just as plausibly be explained by a lag of a few years between introduction and detection, even if ballast water exchange was 100% effective. Model results suggest that, under current monitoring regimes, several more years of data would be required to make a conclusive evaluation of ballast water exchange. Better estimation of the lag time between introduction and detection, and a shortening of that lag time with better monitoring, would allow more precise and timely evaluation of the efficacy of ballast water exchange and other policy instruments.

Propagule pressure and persistence in experimental populations

Average inoculum size and number of introductions are known to have positive effects on population persistence. However, whether these factors affect persistence independently or interact is unknown. We conducted a two-factor experiment in which 112 populations of parthenogenetic Daphnia magna were maintained for 41 days to study effects of inoculum size and introduction frequency on: (i) population growth, (ii) population persistence and (iii) time-to-extinction. We found that the interaction of inoculum size and introduction frequency-the immigration rate-affected all three dependent variables, while population growth was additionally affected by introduction frequency. We conclude that for this system the most important aspect of propagule pressure is immigration rate, with relatively minor additional effects of introduction frequency and negligible effects of inoculum size.

Fecundity as a basis for risk assessment of nonindigenous freshwater molluscs

The most efficient way to reduce future damages from nonindigenous species is to prevent the introduction of harmful species. Although ecologists have long sought to predict the identity of such species, recent methodological advances promise success where previous attempts failed. We applied recently developed risk assessment approaches to nonindigenous freshwater molluscs at two geographic scales: the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and the 48 contiguous states of the United States. We used data on natural history and biogeography to discriminate between established freshwater molluscs that are benign and those that constitute nuisances (i.e., cause environmental and/or economic damage). Two statistical techniques, logistic regression and categorical tree analysis, showed that nuisance status was positively associated with fecundity. Other aspects of natural history and biogeography did not significantly affect likelihood of becoming a nuisance. We then used the derived statistical models to predict the chance that 15 mollusc species not yet in natural ecosystems would cause damage if they become established. We also tested whether time since establishment is related to the likelihood that nonindigenous mollusc species in the Great Lakes and United States would cause negative impacts. No significant relationship was evident at the U.S. scale, but recently established molluscs within the Great Lakes were more likely to cause negative impacts. This may reflect changing environmental conditions, changing patterns of trade, or may be an indication of "invasional meltdown." Our quantitative analyses could be extended to other taxa and ecosystems and offer a number of improvements over the qualitative risk assessments currently used by U.S. (and other) government agencies.

Risk assessment for invasive species produces net bioeconomic benefits

International commerce in live organisms presents a policy challenge for trade globalization; sales of live organisms create wealth, but some nonindigenous species cause harm. To reduce damage, some countries have implemented species screening to limit the introduction of damaging species. Adoption of new risk assessment (RA) technologies has been slowed, however, by concerns that RA accuracy remains insufficient to produce positive net economic benefits. This concern arises because only a small proportion of all introduced species escape, spread, and cause harm (i.e., become invasive), so a RA will exclude many noninvasive species (which provide a net economic benefit) for every invasive species correctly identified. Here, we develop a simple cost:benefit bioeconomic framework to quantify the net benefits from applying species prescreening. Because invasive species are rarely eradicated, and their damages must therefore be borne for long periods, we have projected the value of RA over a suitable range of policy time horizons (10-500 years). We apply the model to the Australian plant quarantine program and show that this RA program produces positive net economic benefits over the range of reasonable assumptions. Because we use low estimates of the financial damage caused by invasive species and high estimates of the value of species in the ornamental trade, our results underestimate the net benefit of the Australian plant quarantine program. In addition, because plants have relatively low rates of invasion, applying screening protocols to animals would likely demonstrate even greater benefits.

Biological invasions: recommendations for U.S. policy and management

The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost-effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive-species management.

GOING WITH THE FLOW: USING SPECIES–DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIPS TO FORECAST LOSSES IN FISH BIODIVERSITY

In response to the scarcity of tools to make quantitative forecasts of the loss of aquatic species from anthropogenic effects, we present a statistical model that relates fish species richness to river discharge. Fish richness increases logarithmically with discharge, an index of habitat space, similar to a species-area curve in terrestrial systems. We apply the species-discharge model as a forecasting tool to build scenarios of changes in riverine fish richness from climate change, water consumption, and other anthropogenic drivers that reduce river discharge. Using hypothetical reductions in discharges (of magnitudes that have been observed in other rivers), we predict that reductions of 20-90% in discharge would result in losses of 2-38% of the fish species in two biogeographical regions in the United States (Lower Ohio-Upper Mississippi and Southeastern). Additional data on the occurrence of specific species relative to specific discharge regimes suggests that fishes found exclusively in high discharge environments (e.g., Shovelnose sturgeon) would be most vulnerable to reductions in discharge. Lag times in species extinctions after discharge reduction provide a window of opportunity for conservation efforts. Applications of the species-discharge model can help prioritize such management efforts among species and rivers.

Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management

Biological invasions from ballast water are a severe environmental threat and exceedingly costly to society. We identify global hot spots of invasion based on worldwide patterns of ship traffic. We then estimate the rate of port-to-port invasion using gravity models for spatial interactions, and we identify bottlenecks to the regional exchange of species using the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm for network flows. Finally, using stochastic simulations of different strategies for controlling ballast-water introductions, we find that reducing the per-ship-visit chance of causing invasion is more effective in reducing the rate of biotic homogenization than eliminating key ports that are the epicentres for global spread.

Effects of light and nutrient availability on the growth, allocation, carbon/nitrogen balance, phenolic chemistry, and resistance to herbivory of two freshwater macrophytes

Phenotypic responses of Potamogeton amplifolius and Nuphar advena to different light (7% and 35% of surface irradiance) and nutrient environments were assessed with field manipulation experiments. Higher light and nutrient availability enhanced the growth of P. amplifolius by 154% and 255%, respectively. Additionally, biomass was allocated differently depending on the resource: high light availability resulted in a higher root/shoot ratio, whereas high nutrient availability resulted in a lower root/shoot ratio. Low light availability and high nutrient availability increased the nitrogen content of leaf tissue by 53% and 40% respectively, resulting in a 37% and 31% decrease in the C/N ratio. Root nitrogen content was also increased by low light and high nutrient availability, by 50% (P=0.0807) and 77% respectively, resulting in a 20% and 40% decrease in root C/N ratio. Leaf phenolics were significantly increased 72% by high light and 31% by high nutrient availability, but root phenolic concentrations were not altered significantly. None of these changes in tissue constituents resulted in altered palatability to crayfish. N. advena was killed by the same high nutrient treatment that stimulated growth in P. amplifolius, preventing assessment of phenotypic responses to nutrient availability. However, high light availability increased overall growth by 24%, but this was mainly due to increased growth of the rhizome (increased 100%), resulting in a higher root/shoot ratio. High light tended to increase the production of floating leaves (P=0.09) and significantly decreased the production of submersed leaves. High light availability decreased the nitrogen content by 15% and 25% and increased the phenolic concentration by 88% and 255% in floating and submersed leaves, respectively. These differences in leaf traits did not result in detectable differences in damage by herbivores.