Sequential diversification with Miocene extinction and Pliocene speciation linked to mountain uplift explains the diversity of the African rain forest clade Monodoreae (Annonaceae)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Throughout the Cenozoic, Africa underwent several climatic and geological changes impacting the evolution of tropical rain forests (TRFs). African TRFs are thought to have extended from east to west in a 'pan-African' TRF, followed by several events of fragmentation during drier climate periods. During the Miocene, climate cooling and mountain uplift led to the aridification of tropical Africa and open habitats expanded at the expense of TRFs, which probably experienced local extinctions. However, in plants, these drivers were previously inferred using limited taxonomic and molecular data. Here, we tested the impact of climate and geological changes on diversification within the diverse clade Monodoreae (Annonaceae) composed of 90 tree species restricted to African TRFs.

METHODS

We reconstructed a near-complete phylogenetic tree, based on 32 nuclear genes, and dated using relaxed clocks and fossil calibrations in a Bayesian framework. We inferred the biogeographical history and the diversification dynamics of the clade using multiple birth-death models.

KEY RESULTS

Monodoreae originated in East African TRFs ~25 million years ago (Ma) and expanded toward Central Africa during the Miocene. We inferred range contractions during the middle Miocene and document important connections between East and West African TRFs after 15-13 Ma. Our results indicated a sudden extinction event during the late Miocene, followed by an increase in speciation rates. Birth-death models suggested that African elevation change (orogeny) is positively linked to speciation in this clade.

CONCLUSION

East Africa is inferred as an important source of Monodoreae species, and possibly for African plant diversity in general. Our results support a 'sequential scenario of diversification' in which increased aridification triggered extinction of TRF species in Monodoreae. This was quickly followed by fragmentation of rain forests, subsequently enhancing lagged speciation resulting from vicariance and improved climate conditions. In contrast to previous ideas, the uplift of East Africa is shown to have played a positive role in Monodoreae diversification.

Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

Colonial-driven extinction of the blue antelope despite genomic adaptation to low population size

Low genomic diversity is generally indicative of small population size and is considered detrimental by decreasing long-term adaptability.1,2,3,4,5,6 Moreover, small population size may promote gene flow with congeners and outbreeding depression.7,8,9,10,11,12,13 Here, we examine the connection between habitat availability, effective population size (Ne), and extinction by generating a 40× nuclear genome from the extinct blue antelope (Hippotragus leucophaeus). Historically endemic to the relatively small Cape Floristic Region in southernmost Africa,14,15 populations were thought to have expanded and contracted across glacial-interglacial cycles, tracking suitable habitat.16,17,18 However, we found long-term low Ne, unaffected by glacial cycles, suggesting persistence with low genomic diversity for many millennia prior to extinction in ∼AD 1800. A lack of inbreeding, alongside high levels of genetic purging, suggests adaptation to this long-term low Ne and that human impacts during the colonial era (e.g., hunting and landscape transformation), rather than longer-term ecological processes, were central to its extinction. Phylogenomic analyses uncovered gene flow between roan (H. equinus) and blue antelope, as well as between roan and sable antelope (H. niger), approximately at the time of divergence of blue and sable antelope (∼1.9 Ma). Finally, we identified the LYST and ASIP genes as candidates for the eponymous bluish pelt color of the blue antelope. Our results revise numerous aspects of our understanding of the interplay between genomic diversity and evolutionary history and provide the resources for uncovering the genetic basis of this extinct species' unique traits.

Ghosts of extinct apes: genomic insights into African hominid evolution

We are accustomed to regular announcements of new hominin fossils. There are now some 6000 hominin fossils, and up to 31 species. However, where are the announcements of African ape fossils? The answer is that there are almost none. Our knowledge of African ape evolution is based entirely on genomic analyses, which show that extant diversity is very young. This contrasts with the extensive and deep diversity of hominins known from fossils. Does this difference point to low and late diversification of ape lineages, or high rates of extinction? The comparative evolutionary dynamics of African hominids are central to interpreting living ape adaptations, as well as understanding the patterns of hominin evolution and the nature of the last common ancestor.

Climate-forced Hg-remobilization associated with fern mutagenesis in the aftermath of the end-Triassic extinction

The long-term effects of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, a large igneous province connected to the end-Triassic mass-extinction (201.5 Ma), remain largely elusive. Here, we document the persistence of volcanic-induced mercury (Hg) pollution and its effects on the biosphere for ~1.3 million years after the extinction event. In sediments recovered in Germany (Schandelah-1 core), we record not only high abundances of malformed fern spores at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, but also during the lower Jurassic Hettangian, indicating repeated vegetation disturbance and stress that was eccentricity-forced. Crucially, these abundances correspond to increases in sedimentary Hg-concentrations. Hg-isotope ratios (δ202Hg, Δ199Hg) suggest a volcanic source of Hg-enrichment at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary but a terrestrial source for the early Jurassic peaks. We conclude that volcanically injected Hg across the extinction was repeatedly remobilized from coastal wetlands and hinterland areas during eccentricity-forced phases of severe hydrological upheaval and erosion, focusing Hg-pollution in the Central European Basin.

Analysis of long transients and detection of early warning signals of extinction in a class of predator-prey models exhibiting bistable behavior

In this paper, we develop a method of analyzing long transient dynamics in a class of predator-prey models with two species of predators competing explicitly for their common prey, where the prey evolves on a faster timescale than the predators. In a parameter regime near a singular zero-Hopf bifurcation of the coexistence equilibrium state, we assume that the system under study exhibits bistability between a periodic attractor that bifurcates from the singular Hopf point and another attractor, which could be a periodic attractor or a point attractor, such that the invariant manifolds of the coexistence equilibrium point play central roles in organizing the dynamics. To find whether a solution that starts in a vicinity of the coexistence equilibrium approaches the periodic attractor or the other attractor, we reduce the equations to a suitable normal form, and examine the basin boundary near the singular Hopf point. A key component of our study includes an analysis of the long transient dynamics, characterized by their rapid oscillations with a slow variation in amplitude, by applying a moving average technique. We obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions on the initial values of a solution near the coexistence equilibrium to determine whether it lies in the basin of attraction of the periodic attractor. As a result of our analysis, we devise a method of identifying early warning signals, significantly in advance, of a future crisis that could lead to extinction of one of the predators. The analysis is applied to the predator-prey model considered in Sadhu (Discrete Contin Dyn Syst B 26:5251-5279, 2021) and we find that our theory is in good agreement with the numerical simulations carried out for this model.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

The positive impact of conservation action

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Kill wolves to save caribou? Sadly, it seems to work

Some worry the findings will stall efforts to halt logging-the root cause of caribou population declines.

Discrimination of ivory from extant and extinct elephant species using Raman spectroscopy: A potential non-destructive technique for combating illegal wildlife trade

The use of elephant ivory as a commodity is a factor in declining elephant populations. Despite recent worldwide elephant ivory trade bans, mammoth ivory trade remains unregulated. This complicates law enforcement efforts, as distinguishing between ivory from extant and extinct species requires costly, destructive and time consuming methods. Elephant and mammoth ivory mainly consists of dentine, a mineralized connective tissue that contains an organic collagenous component and an inorganic component of calcium phosphate minerals, similar in structure to hydroxyapatite crystals. Raman spectroscopy is a non-invasive laser-based technique that has previously been used for the study of bone and mineral chemistry. Ivory and bone have similar biochemical properties, making Raman spectroscopy a promising method for species identification based on ivory. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that it is possible to identify differences in the chemistry of mammoth and elephant ivory using Raman spectroscopy. Mammoth and elephant tusks were obtained from the Natural History Museum in London, UK. Included in this study were eight samples of ivory from Mammuthus primigenius, two samples of carved ivory bangles from Africa (Loxodonta species), and one cross section of a tusk from Elephas maximus. The ivory was scanned using an inVia Raman micro spectrometer equipped with a x50 objective lens and a 785nm laser. Spectra were acquired using line maps and individual spectral points were acquired randomly or at points of interest on all samples. The data was then analysed using principal component analysis (PCA) with use of an in-house MATLAB script. Univariate analysis of peak intensity ratios of phosphate to amide I and III peaks, and carbonate to phosphate peaks showed statistical differences (p<0.0001) in the average peak intensity ratios between Mammuthus primigenius, Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus. Full width at half maximum hight (FWHM)analysis of the phosphate peak demonstrated higher crystal maturity of Mammuthus primigenius compared to living elephant species. The results of the study have established that spectra acquired by Raman spectroscopy can be separated into distinct classes through PCA. In conclusion, this study has shown that well-preserved mammoth and elephant ivory has the potential to be characterized using Raman spectroscopy, providing a promising method for species identification. The results of this study will be valuable in developing quick and non-destructive methods for the identification of ivory, which will have direct applications in archaeology and the regulation of international trade.

New Canadian amber deposit fills gap in fossil record near end-Cretaceous mass extinction

Amber preserves an exceptional record of tiny, soft-bodied organisms and chemical environmental signatures, elucidating the evolution of arthropod lineages and the diversity, ecology, and biogeochemistry of ancient ecosystems. However, globally, fossiliferous amber deposits are rare in the latest Cretaceous and surrounding the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction.1,2,3,4,5 This faunal gap limits our understanding of arthropod diversity and survival across the extinction boundary.2,6 Contrasting hypotheses propose that arthropods were either relatively unaffected by the K-Pg extinction or experienced a steady decline in diversity before the extinction event followed by rapid diversification in the Cenozoic.2,6 These hypotheses are primarily based on arthropod feeding traces on fossil leaves and time-calibrated molecular phylogenies, not direct observation of the fossil record.2,7 Here, we report a diverse amber assemblage from the Late Cretaceous (67.04 ± 0.16 Ma) of the Big Muddy Badlands, Canada. The new deposit fills a critical 16-million-year gap in the arthropod fossil record spanning the K-Pg mass extinction. Seven arthropod orders and at least 11 insect families have been recovered, making the Big Muddy amber deposit the most diverse arthropod assemblage near the K-Pg extinction. Amber chemistry and stable isotopes suggest the amber was produced by coniferous (Cupressaceae) trees in a subtropical swamp near remnants of the Western Interior Seaway. The unexpected abundance of ants from extant families and the virtual absence of arthropods from common, exclusively Cretaceous families suggests that Big Muddy amber may represent a yet unsampled Late Cretaceous environment and provides evidence of a faunal transition before the end of the Cretaceous.

Prolonged faunal turnover in earliest ants revealed by North American Cretaceous amber

All ∼14,000 extant ant species descended from the same common ancestor, which lived ∼140-120 million years ago (Ma).1,2 While modern ants began to diversify in the Cretaceous, recent fossil evidence has demonstrated that older lineages concomitantly occupied the same ancient ecosystems.3 These early-diverging ant lineages, or stem ants, left no modern descendants; however, they dominated the fossil record throughout the Cretaceous until their ultimate extinction sometime around the K-Pg boundary. Even as stem ant lineages appear to be diverse and abundant throughout the Cretaceous, the extent of their longevity in the fossil record and circumstances contributing to their extinction remain unknown.3 Here we report the youngest stem ants, preserved in ∼77 Ma Cretaceous amber from North Carolina, which illustrate unexpected morphological stability and lineage persistence in this enigmatic group, rivaling the longevity of contemporary ants. Through phylogenetic reconstruction and morphometric analyses, we find evidence that total taxic turnover in ants was not accompanied by a fundamental morphological shift, in contrast to other analogous stem extinctions such as theropod dinosaurs. While stem taxa showed broad morphological variation, high-density ant morphospace remained relatively constant through the last 100 million years, detailing a parallel, but temporally staggered, evolutionary history of modern and stem ants.

Ant evolution: Amber revelations of extinction, survival and recovery

Ant fossils from the Cretaceous are rare but critical for understanding the early evolution of this incredibly successful group of animals. New amber fossils fill important gaps, revealing patterns of death, survival, and radiation around the end Cretaceous extinction.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Interrelationships among Early Triassic faunas of Western Gondwana and Laurasia as illuminated by a new South American benthosuchid temnospondyl

The End-Permian Mass Extinction marked a critical turning point in Earth's history, and the biological recovery that followed the crisis led to the emergence of several modern vertebrate and invertebrate taxa. Even considering the importance of the Early Triassic biotic recovery for the evolution of modern faunas and floras, our knowledge of this event is still hindered by the sparse sampling of crucial geological formations. This leaves our understanding of Early Triassic ecosystems fundamentally biased toward productive and historically well-explored geological units. Recent surveys in poorly known Gondwanan localities, such as those within the Sanga do Cabral Formation in southern Brazil, have unveiled insights into Early Triassic terrestrial ecosystems, shedding light on a diverse and previously unknown tetrapod fauna. Here, we report the discovery of a new temnospondyl genus and species in the Lower Triassic Sanga do Cabral Formation. The new taxon can be confidently assigned to the Benthosuchidae, a stereospondyl clade with a distribution previously restricted to the East European Platform. Phylogenetic analysis confirms the relationship of the new genus to the trematosaurian lineage, being closely related to the genus Benthosuchus. Our results raise questions about the biogeographical history of stereospondyls after the End-Permian Mass Extinction and suggest a potential connection between Russian and South American Early Triassic faunas. Further investigations are needed to thoroughly explore the potential dispersal routes that may explain this seemingly unusual biogeographical pattern.

Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation

More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

Population parameters and conservation implications for one of the world's rarest marine fishes, the red handfish (Thymichthys politus)

Population estimates are required for effective conservation of many rare marine species, but can be difficult to obtain. The critically endangered red handfish (Thymichthys politus) is a coastal anglerfish known only from two fragmented populations in southeast Tasmania, Australia. It is at a high risk of extinction due to low numbers, loss of habitat, and the impacts of climate change. To aid conservation efforts, we provide the first empirical population size estimates of red handfish and investigate other important aspects of the species' life history, such as growth, habitat association, and movement. We surveyed both red handfish local populations via underwater visual census on scuba over 3 years and used photographic mark-recapture techniques to estimate biological parameters. In 2020, the local adult population size was estimated to be 94 (95% confidence interval [CI] 40-231) adults at one site, and 7 (95% CI 5-10) at the other site, suggesting an estimated global population of 101 adults. Movement of individuals was extremely limited at 48.5 m (± 77.7 S.D.) per year. We also found evidence of declining fish density, a declining proportion of juveniles, and increasing average fish size during the study. These results provide a serious warning that red handfish are likely sliding toward extinction, and highlight the urgent need to expand efforts for ex situ captive breeding to bolster numbers in the wild and maintain captive insurance populations, and to protect vital habitat to safeguard the species' ongoing survival in the wild.

The Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution buffered ants against extinction

With ~14,000 extant species, ants are ubiquitous and of tremendous ecological importance. They have undergone remarkable diversification throughout their evolutionary history. However, the drivers of their diversity dynamics are not well quantified or understood. Previous phylogenetic analyses have suggested patterns of diversity dynamics associated with the Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution (ATR), but these studies have overlooked valuable information from the fossil record. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using a large dataset that includes both the ant fossil record (~24,000 individual occurrences) and neontological data (~14,000 occurrences), and tested four hypotheses proposed for ant diversification: co-diversification, competitive extinction, hyper-specialization, and buffered extinction. Taking into account biases in the fossil record, we found three distinct diversification periods (the latest Cretaceous, Eocene, and Oligo-Miocene) and one extinction period (Late Cretaceous). The competitive extinction hypothesis between stem and crown ants is not supported. Instead, we found support for the co-diversification, buffered extinction, and hyper-specialization hypotheses. The environmental changes of the ATR, mediated by the angiosperm radiation, likely played a critical role in buffering ants against extinction and favoring their diversification by providing new ecological niches, such as forest litter and arboreal nesting sites, and additional resources. We also hypothesize that the decline and extinction of stem ants during the Late Cretaceous was due to their hyper-specialized morphology, which limited their ability to expand their dietary niche in changing environments. This study highlights the importance of a holistic approach when studying the interplay between past environments and the evolutionary trajectories of organisms.

Fishing for oil and meat drives irreversible defaunation of deepwater sharks and rays

The deep ocean is the last natural biodiversity refuge from the reach of human activities. Deepwater sharks and rays are among the most sensitive marine vertebrates to overexploitation. One-third of threatened deepwater sharks are targeted, and half the species targeted for the international liver-oil trade are threatened with extinction. Steep population declines cannot be easily reversed owing to long generation lengths, low recovery potentials, and the near absence of management. Depth and spatial limits to fishing activity could improve conservation when implemented alongside catch regulations, bycatch mitigation, and international trade regulation. Deepwater sharks and rays require immediate trade and fishing regulations to prevent irreversible defaunation and promote recovery of this threatened megafauna group.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Concurrent threats and extinction risk in a long-lived, highly fecund vertebrate with parental care

Detecting declines and quantifying extinction risk of long-lived, highly fecund vertebrates, including fishes, reptiles, and amphibians, can be challenging. In addition to the false notion that large clutches always buffer against population declines, the imperiled status of long-lived species can often be masked by extinction debt, wherein adults persist on the landscape for several years after populations cease to be viable. Here we develop a demographic model for the eastern hellbender (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis), an imperiled aquatic salamander with paternal care. We examined the individual and interactive effects of three of the leading threats hypothesized to contribute to the species' demise: habitat loss due to siltation, high rates of nest failure, and excess adult mortality caused by fishing and harvest. We parameterized the model using data on their life history and reproductive ecology to model the fates of individual nests and address multiple sources of density-dependent mortality under both deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Our model suggests that high rates of nest failure observed in the field are sufficient to drive hellbender populations toward a geriatric age distribution and eventually to localized extinction but that this process takes decades. Moreover, the combination of limited nest site availability due to siltation, nest failure, and stochastic adult mortality can interact to increase the likelihood and pace of extinction, which was particularly evident under stochastic scenarios. Density dependence in larval survival and recruitment can severely hamper a population's ability to recover from declines. Our model helps to identify tipping points beyond which extinction becomes certain and management interventions become necessary. Our approach can be generalized to understand the interactive effects of various threats to the extinction risk of other long-lived vertebrates. As we face unprecedented rates of environmental change, holistic approaches incorporating multiple concurrent threats and their impacts on different aspects of life history will be necessary to proactively conserve long-lived species.

Competition Increases Risk of Species Extinction during Extreme Warming

AbstractTemperature and interspecific competition are fundamental drivers of community structure in natural systems and can interact to affect many measures of species performance. However, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which competition affects extinction temperatures during extreme warming. This information is important for evaluating future threats to species from extreme high-temperature events and heat waves, which are rising in frequency and severity around the world. Using experimental freshwater communities of rotifers and ciliates, this study shows that interspecific competition can lower the threshold temperature at which local extinction occurs, reducing time to extinction during periods of sustained warming by as much as 2 weeks. Competitors may lower extinction temperatures by altering biochemical characteristics of the natural environment that affect temperature tolerance (e.g., levels of dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and metabolic wastes) or by accelerating population decline through traditional effects of resource depletion on life history parameters that affect population growth rates. The results suggest that changes in community structure in space and time could drive variability in upper thermal limits.

The Clade Replacement Theory: a framework to study age-dependent extinction

There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration.

Exploring the effects of competition and predation on the success of biological invasion through mathematical modeling

Biological invasions are a major cause of species extinction and biodiversity loss. Exotic predators are the type of introduced species that have the greatest negative impact, causing the extinction of hundreds of native species. Despite this, they continue to be intentionally introduced by humans. Understanding the causes that determine the success of these invasions is a challenge within the field of invasion biology. Mathematical models play a crucial role in understanding and predicting the behavior of exotic species in different ecosystems. This study examines the effect of predation and competition on the invasion success of an exotic generalist predator in a native predator-prey system. Considering that the exotic predator both consumes the native prey and competes with the native predator, it is necessary to study the interplay between predation and competition, as one of these interspecific interactions may either counteract or contribute to the impact of the other on the success of a biological invasion. Through a mathematical model, represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, it is possible to describe four different scenarios upon the arrival of the exotic predator in a native predator-prey system. The conditions for each of these scenarios are described analytically and numerically. The numerical simulations are performed considering the American mink (Mustela vison), an invasive generalist predator. The results highlight the importance of considering the interplay between interspecific interactions for understanding biological invasion success.

Tip dating and Bayes factors provide insight into the divergences of crown bird clades across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

The origin of crown birds (Neornithes) remains contentious owing to conflicting divergence time hypotheses obtained from alternative sources of data. The fossil record suggests limited diversification of Neornithes in the Late Mesozoic and a substantial radiation in the aftermath of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) mass extinction, approximately 66 Ma. Molecular clock studies, however, have yielded estimates for neornithine origins ranging from the Early Cretaceous (130 Ma) to less than 10 Myr before the K-Pg. We use Bayes factors to compare the fit of node ages from different molecular clock studies to an independent morphological dataset. Our results allow us to reject scenarios of crown bird origins deep in the Early Cretaceous, as well as an origin of crown birds within the last 10 Myr of the Cretaceous. The scenario best supported by our analyses is one where Neornithes originated between the Early and Late Cretaceous (ca 100 Ma), while numerous divergences within major neoavian clades either span or postdate the K-Pg. This study affirms the importance of the K-Pg on the diversification of modern birds, and the potential of combined-evidence tip-dating analyses to illuminate recalcitrant 'rocks versus clocks' debates.

Racing extinction: Can science act fast enough to save large, endangered mammals?

How far can a polar bear swim? The answer to that one question could have altered the course of the global warming movement and tempered current public distrust in scienceand scientists. As is the case for many large, fierce mammals, many aspects of the basic biology that dictate what polar bears (Ursus maritimus) need to survive in a changing world remain a mystery. We don't know the limitations of the bear's thermoregulatory or swimming capabilities in Arctic waters. Nor do we know whether a terrestrial diet of berries and scavenging is able to sustain a mother bear throughout pregnancy and cub rearing should the continued deterioration of sea ice force them to remain on land. At a time when understanding animal capacities and resiliency in the face of human perturbation is crucial to species survival, science has been unable to keep pace with emerging environmental threats.

Functional traits-not nativeness-shape the effects of large mammalian herbivores on plant communities

Large mammalian herbivores (megafauna) have experienced extinctions and declines since prehistory. Introduced megafauna have partly counteracted these losses yet are thought to have unusually negative effects on plants compared with native megafauna. Using a meta-analysis of 3995 plot-scale plant abundance and diversity responses from 221 studies, we found no evidence that megafauna impacts were shaped by nativeness, "invasiveness," "feralness," coevolutionary history, or functional and phylogenetic novelty. Nor was there evidence that introduced megafauna facilitate introduced plants more than native megafauna. Instead, we found strong evidence that functional traits shaped megafauna impacts, with larger-bodied and bulk-feeding megafauna promoting plant diversity. Our work suggests that trait-based ecology provides better insight into interactions between megafauna and plants than do concepts of nativeness.

The inclusion of biodiversity into Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) framework: A strategic integration of ecocentric extinction accounting

Traditional Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics have primarily focused on promoting sustainable finance, positive screening, and sustainability reporting. However, recent research highlights the urgency for greater accountability and action to counter species extinction. This article explores the potential of ESG frameworks in guiding corporate and managerial decision-making to address biodiversity loss. As the current ESG indicators exhibit an anthropocentric bias, limiting their effectiveness for protecting biodiversity, this article aims to strategically integrate pragmatic extinction accounting with an ecocentric (deep ecology) perspective. This perspective addresses the root causes of biodiversity loss and offers support to species that are perceived as economically, socially, or culturally unimportant. We present our findings as a call to all stakeholders-business and policy decision-makers, conservationists, and environmental organizations-to formulate robust, inclusive, and ecologically sensitive strategies incorporating deep ecological perspectives. The findings of this study include recommendations for the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). This study provides an important contribution to stakeholder theory that supports non-human stakeholders. Besides, this paper showcases how the improved ESG framework could empower companies to confront extinction risks in a more proactive and accelerated manner.

Fifth mass extinction event triggered the diversification of the largest family of freshwater gastropods (Caenogastropoda: Truncatelloidea: Hydrobiidae)

The fifth mass extinction event (MEE) at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary 66 million years ago (Ma) led to massive species loss but also triggered the diversification of higher taxa. Five models have been proposed depending on whether this diversification occurred before, during or after the K-Pg boundary and the rate of species accumulation. While the effects of the K-Pg MEE on vertebrate evolution are relatively well understood, the impact on invertebrates, particularly in freshwater ecosystems, remains controversial. One example is the hyperdiverse Hydrobiidae-the most species-rich family of freshwater gastropods. Whereas some studies place its origin in the Jurassic or even Carboniferous, most fossil records postdate the K-Pg event. We therefore used robustly time-calibrated multi-locus phylogenies of >400 species representing >100 hydrobiid genera to unravel its evolutionary history and patterns of diversification. We found that the family started diversifying shortly after the K-Pg boundary (∼60 Ma; 95% highest posterior density 52-69 Ma). Lineage richness gradually increased to the present and phylogenetic diversity until ∼25 Ma. These findings suggest that diversification was not initially driven by ecological opportunity. Combining the two criteria of timing and rate of diversification, a soft-explosive diversification model of aquatic vertebrates best fits the patterns observed. We also show that most higher hydrobiid taxa (i.e. subfamilies) diversified from the Middle Oligocene to Middle Miocene (i.e. 12-28 Ma). Two of the 15 major clades delimited are described here as new subfamilies (i.e. Bullaregiinae n. subfam. and Pontobelgrandiellinae n. subfam.), whose members are restricted to subterranean waters. Our results are an important contribution to understanding how the fifth MEE has shaped evolution and patterns of biodiversity in continental aquatic systems. Given the high extinction risks faced by many hydrobiids today, they also emphasise the need to study the biodiversity of vulnerable ecosystems.

Extinction risk of the world's freshwater mammals

The continued loss of freshwater habitats poses a significant threat to global biodiversity. We reviewed the extinction risk of 166 freshwater aquatic and semiaquatic mammals-a group rarely documented as a collective. We used the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species categories as of December 2021 to determine extinction risk. Extinction risk was then compared among taxonomic groups, geographic areas, and biological traits. Thirty percent of all freshwater mammals were listed as threatened. Decreasing population trends were common (44.0%), including a greater rate of decline (3.6% in 20 years) than for mammals or freshwater species as a whole. Aquatic freshwater mammals were at a greater risk of extinction than semiaquatic freshwater mammals (95% CI -7.20 to -1.11). Twenty-nine species were data deficient or not evaluated. Large species (95% CI 0.01 to 0.03) with large dispersal distances (95% CI 0.03 to 0.15) had a higher risk of extinction than small species with small dispersal distances. The number of threatening processes associated with a species compounded their risk of extinction (95% CI 0.28 to 0.77). Hunting, land clearing for logging and agriculture, pollution, residential development, and habitat modification or destruction from dams and water management posed the greatest threats to these species. The basic life-history traits of many species were poorly known, highlighting the need for more research. Conservation of freshwater mammals requires a host of management actions centered around increased protection of riparian areas and more conscientious water management to aid the recovery of threatened species.

Homo sapiens reached the higher latitudes of Europe by 45,000 years ago

The Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition in Europe is associated with the regional disappearance of Neanderthals and the spread of Homo sapiens. Late Neanderthals persisted in western Europe several millennia after the occurrence of H. sapiens in eastern Europe1. Local hybridization between the two groups occurred2, but not on all occasions3. Archaeological evidence also indicates the presence of several technocomplexes during this transition, complicating our understanding and the association of behavioural adaptations with specific hominin groups4. One such technocomplex for which the makers are unknown is the Lincombian-Ranisian-Jerzmanowician (LRJ), which has been described in northwestern and central Europe5-8. Here we present the morphological and proteomic taxonomic identification, mitochondrial DNA analysis and direct radiocarbon dating of human remains directly associated with an LRJ assemblage at the site Ilsenhöhle in Ranis (Germany). These human remains are among the earliest directly dated Upper Palaeolithic H. sapiens remains in Eurasia. We show that early H. sapiens associated with the LRJ were present in central and northwestern Europe long before the extinction of late Neanderthals in southwestern Europe. Our results strengthen the notion of a patchwork of distinct human populations and technocomplexes present in Europe during this transitional period.

Decline and fall of the Ediacarans: late-Neoproterozoic extinctions and the rise of the modern biosphere

The end-Neoproterozoic transition marked a gradual but permanent shift between distinct configurations of Earth's biosphere. This interval witnessed the demise of the enigmatic Ediacaran Biota, ushering in the structured trophic webs and disparate animal body plans of Phanerozoic ecosystems. However, little consensus exists on the reality, drivers, and macroevolutionary implications of end-Neoproterozoic extinctions. Here we evaluate potential drivers of late-Neoproterozoic turnover by addressing recent findings on Ediacaran geochronology, the persistence of classical Ediacaran macrobionts into the Cambrian, and the existence of Ediacaran crown-group eumetazoans. Despite renewed interest in the possibility of Phanerozoic-style 'mass extinctions' in the latest Neoproterozoic, our synthesis of the available evidence does not support extinction models based on episodic geochemical triggers, nor does it validate simple ecological interpretations centred on direct competitive displacement. Instead, we argue that the protracted and indirect effects of early bilaterian innovations, including escalations in sediment engineering, predation, and the largely understudied impacts of reef-building, may best account for the temporal structure and possible selectivity of late-Neoproterozoic extinctions. We integrate these processes into a generalised model of early eumetazoan-dominated ecologies, charting the disruption of spatial and temporal isotropy on the Ediacaran benthos as a consequence of diversifying macrofaunal interactions. Given the nature of resource distribution in Ediacaran ecologies, the continuities among Ediacaran and Cambrian faunas, and the convergent origins of ecologically disruptive innovations among bilaterians we suggest that the rise of Phanerozoic-type biotas may have been unstoppable.

Predator-induced prey dispersal can cause hump-shaped density-area relationships in prey populations

Predation can both reduce prey abundance directly (through density-dependent effects) and indirectly through prey trait-mediated effects. Over the years, many studies have focused on describing the density-area relationship (DAR). However, the mechanisms responsible for the DAR are not well understood. Loss and fragmentation of habitats, owing to human activities, creates landscape-level spatial heterogeneity wherein patches of varying size, isolation and quality are separated by a human-modified "matrix" of varying degrees of hostility and has been a primary driver of species extinctions and declining biodiversity. How matrix hostility in combination with trait-mediated effects influence DAR, minimum patch size, and species coexistence remains an open question. In this paper, we employ a theoretical spatially explicit predator-prey population model built upon the reaction-diffusion framework to explore effects of predator-induced emigration (trait-mediated emigration) and matrix hostility on DAR, minimum patch size, and species coexistence. Our results show that when trait-mediated response strength is sufficiently strong, ranges of patch size emerge where a nonlinear hump-shaped prey DAR is predicted and other ranges where coexistence is not possible. In a conservation perspective, DAR is crucial not only in deciding whether we should have one large habitat patch or several-small (SLOSS), but for understanding the minimum patch size that can support a viable population. Our study lends more credence to the possibility that predators can alter prey DAR through predator-induced prey dispersal.

Muller's genetic load/species extinction hypothesis

The genetic load hypothesis of Hermann Muller raised the profound question of possible species extinction, even for humans, following a prolonged accumulation of recessive genes due to ionizing radiation exposure within the population. Two major mouse radiation research teams in the United States provided the most extensive tests of Muller's hypothesis. One group continued its study for more than two decades, over 82 consecutive generations, approximating 2500 human years. Even though Muller had stressed for decades his fear of species-threatening effects, no significant effects were observed for related factors such as reproductive fitness and longevity. Yet, the paper presenting the data of the 82-generation negative study has only been cited five times in 45 years. Altogether numerous laboratories worldwide collected vast amounts of data on mice, rats, and swine in an unsuccessful attempt to see if there was convincing evidence to support the genetic load theory and claims that species might deteriorate or be rendered extinct. This paper re-examines Muller's genetic load hypothesis with a new evaluation of how that hypothesis was tested and the significance of the findings, with most of those studies being completed before the BEIR I Committee Report in 1972. That committee briefly discussed the available evidence, mostly ignoring those results as they proceeded to make hereditary risk estimates both for (1) the first generation after a radiation exposure and (2) for the time, in the distant future, when a hypothetical genetic equilibrium would be reached. Their estimates assumed accumulation of harmful mutations and a linear no-threshold dose response extending all of the way down to a single ionization. More recent data on induction by ionizing radiation of dominant mutations that affect the skeletons of mice provide further robust supporting evidence that the generationally cumulative and LNT-based assumptions underpinning Muller's genetic load hypothesis are not correct.

Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees

Biodiversity is declining globally, yet many biodiversity hotspots still lack comprehensive species conservation assessments. Using multiple International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria to evaluate extinction risks and millions of herbarium and forest inventory records, we present automated conservation assessments for all tree species of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, including ~1100 heretofore unassessed species. About 65% of all species and 82% of endemic species are classified as threatened. We rediscovered five species classified as Extinct on the IUCN Red List and identified 13 endemics as possibly extinct. Uncertainties in species information had little influence on the assessments, but using fewer Red List criteria severely underestimated threat levels. We suggest that the conservation status of tropical forests worldwide is worse than previously reported.

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.

More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts.

The demise of the giant ape Gigantopithecus blacki

The largest ever primate and one of the largest of the southeast Asian megafauna, Gigantopithecus blacki1, persisted in China from about 2.0 million years until the late middle Pleistocene when it became extinct2-4. Its demise is enigmatic considering that it was one of the few Asian great apes to go extinct in the last 2.6 million years, whereas others, including orangutan, survived until the present5. The cause of the disappearance of G. blacki remains unresolved but could shed light on primate resilience and the fate of megafauna in this region6. Here we applied three multidisciplinary analyses-timing, past environments and behaviour-to 22 caves in southern China. We used 157 radiometric ages from six dating techniques to establish a timeline for the demise of G. blacki. We show that from 2.3 million years ago the environment was a mosaic of forests and grasses, providing ideal conditions for thriving G. blacki populations. However, just before and during the extinction window between 295,000 and 215,000  years ago there was enhanced environmental variability from increased seasonality, which caused changes in plant communities and an increase in open forest environments. Although its close relative Pongo weidenreichi managed to adapt its dietary preferences and behaviour to this variability, G. blacki showed signs of chronic stress and dwindling populations. Ultimately its struggle to adapt led to the extinction of the greatest primate to ever inhabit the Earth.

What factors influence the rediscovery of lost tetrapod species?

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered-our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist.

Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments

Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

The virtual brain endocast of Trogosus (Mammalia, Tillodontia) and its relevance in understanding the extinction of archaic placental mammals

After successfully diversifying during the Paleocene, the descendants of the first wave of mammals that survived the end-Cretaceous mass extinction waned throughout the Eocene. Competition with modern crown clades and intense climate fluctuations may have been part of the factors leading to the extinction of these archaic groups. Why these taxa went extinct has rarely been studied from the perspective of the nervous system. Here, we describe the first virtual endocasts for the archaic order Tillodontia. Three species from the middle Eocene of North America were analyzed: Trogosus hillsii, Trogosus grangeri, and Trogosus castoridens. We made morphological comparisons with the plaster endocast of another tillodont, Tillodon fodiens, as well as groups potentially related to Tillodontia: Pantodonta, Arctocyonidae, and Cimolesta. Trogosus shows very little inter-specific variation with the only potential difference being related to the fusion of the optic canal and sphenorbital fissure. Many ancestral features are displayed by Trogosus, including an exposed midbrain, small neocortex, orbitotemporal canal ventral to rhinal fissure, and a broad circular fissure. Potential characteristics that could unite Tillodontia with Pantodonta, and Arctocyonidae are the posterior position of cranial nerve V3 exit in relation to the cerebrum and the low degree of development of the subarcuate fossa. The presence of large olfactory bulbs and a relatively small neocortex are consistent with a terrestrial lifestyle. A relatively small neocortex may have put Trogosus at risk when competing with artiodactyls for potentially similar resources and avoiding predation from archaic carnivorans, both of which are known to have had larger relative brain and neocortex sizes in the Eocene. These factors may have possibly exacerbated the extinction of Tillodontia, which showed highly specialized morphologies despite the increase in climate fluctuations throughout the Eocene, before disappearing during the middle Eocene.

Ecological structure of diversity-dependent diversification in Phanerozoic marine bivalves

Rigorous analysis of diversity-dependence-the hypothesis that the rate of proliferation of new species is inversely related to standing diversity-requires consideration of the ecology of the organisms in question. Differences between infaunal marine bivalves (living entirely within the sediment) and epifaunal forms (living partially or completely above the sediment-water interface) predict that these major ecological groups should have different diversity dynamics: epifaunal species may compete more intensely for space and be more susceptible to predation and physical disturbance. By comparing detrended standing diversity with rates of diversification, origination, and extinction in this exceptional fossil record, we find that epifaunal bivalves experienced significant, negative diversity-dependence in origination and net diversification, whereas infaunal forms show little appreciable relationship between diversity and evolutionary rates. This macroevolutionary contrast is robust to the time span over which dynamics are analysed, whether mass-extinction rebounds are included in the analysis, the treatment of stratigraphic ranges that are not maximally resolved, and the details of detrending. We also find that diversity-dependence persists over hundreds of millions of years, even though diversity itself rises nearly exponentially, belying the notion that diversity-dependence must imply equilibrial diversity dynamics.

Speciation-by-Extinction

Extinction is a dominant force shaping patterns of biodiversity through time; however its role as a catalyst of speciation through its interaction with intraspecific variation has been overlooked. Here, we synthesize ideas alluded to by Darwin and others into the model of "speciation-by-extinction" in which speciation results from the extinction of intermediate populations within a single geographically variable species. We explore the properties and distinguishing features of speciation-by-extinction with respect to other established speciation models. We demonstrate its plausibility by showing that the experimental extinction of populations within variable species can result in speciation. The prerequisites for speciation-by-extinction, geographically structured intraspecific variation and local extinction, are ubiquitous in nature. We propose that speciation-by-extinction may be a prevalent, but underappreciated, speciation mechanism.

Two centuries of biodiversity discovery and loss in Singapore

There is an urgent need for reliable data on the impacts of deforestation on tropical biodiversity. The city-state of Singapore has one of the most detailed biodiversity records in the tropics, dating back to the turn of the 19th century. In 1819, Singapore was almost entirely covered in primary forest, but this has since been largely cleared. We compiled more than 200 y of records for 10 major taxonomic groups in Singapore (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species), and we estimated extinction rates using recently developed and novel statistical models that account for "dark extinctions," i.e., extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37% (95% CI [31 to 42%]). Extrapolating our Singapore observations to a future business-as-usual deforestation scenario for Southeast Asia suggests that 18% (95% CI [16 to 22%]) of species will be lost regionally by 2100. Our extinction estimates for Singapore and Southeast Asia are a factor of two lower than previous estimates that also attempted to account for dark extinctions. However, we caution that particular groups such as large mammals, forest-dependent birds, orchids, and butterflies are disproportionately vulnerable.