Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake

The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes' induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

A slow neutron polarimeter for the measurement of parity-odd neutron rotary power

We present the design, description, calibration procedure, and an analysis of systematic effects for an apparatus designed to measure the rotation of the plane of polarization of a transversely polarized slow neutron beam as it passes through unpolarized matter. This device is the neutron optical equivalent of a crossed polarizer/analyzer pair familiar from light optics. This apparatus has been used to search for parity violation in the interaction of polarized slow neutrons in matter. Given the brightness of existing slow neutron sources, this apparatus is capable of measuring a neutron rotary power of dϕ/dz = 1 × 10(-7) rad/m.

Conditioning out-of-date bank-stored red blood cells using a cell-saver auto-transfusion device: effects on numbers of red cells and quality of suspension fluid

We investigated the utility of a cell-saver device for processing out-of-date red blood cells, by washing twenty bags of red blood cells that had been stored for between 36 and 55 days. The volume of recovered cells, and the characteristics of the suspension fluid, were measured before and after treatment. The ratio of free haemoglobin to total haemoglobin was up to 0.02 before processing, and up to 0.011 afterwards, changing by between -0.013 and +0.003. This ratio met the current standard for free haemoglobin (less than 0.008 in more than 75% of samples), both before and after processing. Ninety-three percent of red blood cells survived the process. Potassium ion concentration fell from above 15 mmol.l(-1) in all cases, to a mean of 6.4 mmol.l(-1) (p < 0.001). The pH rose to a mean value of 6.44 (p = 0.001). Lactate ion concentration fell to a mean value of 14 mmol.l(-1) (p < 0.001). Sodium ion concentration rose from a mean value of 93 mmol.l(-1) to a mean value of 140 mmol.l(-1) (p < 0.001). A useful proportion of out-of-date red blood cells remained intact after conditioning using a cell-saver, and the process lowered concentrations of potentially toxic solutes in the fluid in which they were suspended.

Bougie-related airway trauma: dangers of the hold-up sign

The bougie is a popular tool in difficult intubations. The hold-up sign is used to confirm tracheal placement of a bougie. This study aimed to establish the potential for airway trauma when using this sign with an Eschmann re-usable bougie or a Frova single-use bougie. Airways were simulated using a manikin (hold-up force) and porcine lung model (airway perforation force). Mean (SD) hold-up force (for airway lengths over the range 25-45 cm) of 1.0 (0.4) and 5.2 (1.1) N were recorded with the Eschmann and Frova bougies, respectively (p < 0.001). The mean (SD) force required to produce airway perforation was 0.9 (0.2) N with the Eschmann bougie and 1.1 (0.3) N with the Frova bougie (p = 0.11). It is possible to apply a force at least five times greater than the force required to produce significant trauma with a Frova single-use bougie. We recommend that the hold-up sign should no longer be used with single-use bougies. Clinicians should be cautious when eliciting this sign using the Eschmann re-usable bougie.

Evaluation of mammographic surveillance services in women aged 40-49 years with a moderate family history of breast cancer: a single-arm cohort study

BACKGROUND

Women with a significant family history of breast cancer are often offered more intensive and earlier surveillance than is offered to the general population in the National Breast Screening Programme. Up to now, this strategy has not been fully evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the benefit of mammographic surveillance for women aged 40-49 years at moderate risk of breast cancer due to family history. The study is referred to as FH01.

DESIGN

This was a single-arm cohort study with recruitment taking place between January 2003 and February 2007. Recruits were women aged < 50 years with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer conferring at least a 3% risk of breast cancer between ages 40 and 49 years. The women were offered annual mammography for at least 5 years and observed for the occurrence of breast cancer during the surveillance period. The age group 40-44 years was targeted so that they would still be aged < 50 years after 5 years of surveillance.

SETTING

Seventy-four surveillance centres in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 6710 women, 94% of whom were aged < 45 years at recruitment, with a family history of breast cancer estimated to imply at least a 3% risk of the disease between the ages of 40 and 50 years.

INTERVENTIONS

Annual mammography for at least 5 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary study end point was the predicted risk of death from breast cancer as estimated from the size, lymph node status and grade of the tumours diagnosed. This was compared with the control group from the UK Breast Screening Age Trial (Age Trial), adjusting for the different underlying incidence in the two populations.

RESULTS

As of December 2010, there were 165 breast cancers diagnosed in 37,025 person-years of observation and 30,556 mammographic screening episodes. Of these, 122 (74%) were diagnosed at screening. The cancers included 44 (27%) cases of ductal carcinoma in situ. There were 19 predicted deaths in 37,025 person-years in FH01, with an estimated incidence of 6.3 per 1000 per year. The corresponding figures for the Age Trial control group were 204 predicted deaths in 622,127 person-years and an incidence of 2.4 per 1000 per year. This gave an estimated 40% reduction in breast cancer mortality (relative risk = 0.60; 95% confidence interval 0.37 to 0.98; p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Annual mammography in women aged 40-49 years with a significant family history of breast or ovarian cancer is both clinically effective in reducing breast cancer mortality and cost-effective. There is a need to further standardise familial risk assessment, to research the impact of digital mammography and to clarify the role of breast density in this population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

National Research Register N0484114809.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 11. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Abstract P5-13-03: Breast cancer risk assessment for underserved minority women in primary care: patient and provider perspectives

Background: Individualized breast cancer risk assessment can identify women at increased risk who are candidates for interventions with proven benefit, including chemoprevention, enhanced surveillance, genetic testing and risk-reducing surgery. Systematic risk assessment and prescription of individualized, risk-adapted cancer control recommendations provides a novel method for addressing cancer disparities in underserved minority women. Widespread dissemination of these approaches requires implementation in the primary care setting.

Purpose: to determine potential benefits and harms of a policy for routinely providing personalized breast cancer risk assessment for underserved minority women from the perspectives of patients and primary care providers (PCPs), and to explore ethical implications of breast cancer risk communication in this patient population.

Methods: African American and Hispanic women age 25–69 years without a history of breast cancer, presenting for a routine scheduled appointment with their primary provider at a Federally Qualified Health Center were invited to participate in a study on women's views about breast cancer risk. Breast cancer risk factor data was collected from all participants and individualized risk assessments were performed using three models (NCI BCRAT, Claus model and a pedigree assessment tool). PCPs discussed the results of the assessment with their patients and provided computer-generated, risk-adapted recommendations for screening and prevention that are based on national guidelines. Using a mixed methods approach, we collected quantitative survey data from participants at baseline (prior to receipt of risk information), immediately following the encounter with their PCP and two weeks later. We also used qualitative approaches in a subgroup of participants from each of three risk strata (general population risk, moderately-increased and high risk) including audio-recorded observational data from physician-patient interactions and in-depth interviews with patients and physicians in order to evaluate how women process risk information and make decisions regarding how to act on that information. Data collected broadly focused on the following topics: Interpretation and initial reaction to the personalized risk information provided by the PCPWhat it means to be “at (baseline, moderate, high) risk”Views on value of/potential benefits and harms of personalized risk informationLevel of trust in the informationPreferences regarding recommended surveillance strategies and risk reduction strategies (for moderate and high risk groups)Preferences regarding shared decision makingFuture plans/action steps based on personalized risk informationPerceptions of the manner that personalized risk information was presented to them by their PCP

Results: We are planning to enroll 480 participants for the quantitative survey portion and 48 participants for in-depth qualitative data collection, including audio-recorded patient-physician interactions and in-depth patient interviews, along with 8 in-depth provider interviews. Data collection is ongoing and results will be presented.

Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant from the National Cancer Institute (2P50CA106743)

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-13-03.

Hormonal evidence supports the theory of selection in utero

OBJECTIVES

Antagonists in the debate over whether the maternal stress response during pregnancy damages or culls fetuses have invoked the theory of selection in utero to support opposing positions. We describe how these opposing arguments arise from the same theory and offer a novel test to discriminate between them. Our test, rooted in reports from population endocrinology that human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) signals fetal fitness, contributes not only to the debate over the fetal origins of illness, but also to the more basic literature concerned with whether and how natural selection in utero affects contemporary human populations.

METHODS

We linked maternal serum hCG measurements from prenatal screening tests with data from the California Department of Public Health birth registry for the years 2001-2007. We used time series analysis to test the association between the number of live-born male singletons and median hCG concentration among males in monthly gestational cohorts.

RESULTS

Among the 1.56 million gestations in our analysis, we find that median hCG levels among male survivors of monthly conception cohorts rise as the number of male survivors falls.

RESULTS

Elevated median hCG among relatively small male birth cohorts supports the theory of selection in utero and suggests that the maternal stress response culls cohorts in gestation by raising the fitness criterion for survival to birth.

Checking anaesthetic equipment 2012: association of anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland

A pre-use check to ensure the correct functioning of anaesthetic equipment is essential to patient safety. The anaesthetist has a primary responsibility to understand the function of the anaesthetic equipment and to check it before use. Anaesthetists must not use equipment unless they have been trained to use it and are competent to do so. A self-inflating bag must be immediately available in any location where anaesthesia may be given. A two-bag test should be performed after the breathing system, vaporisers and ventilator have been checked individually. A record should be kept with the anaesthetic machine that these checks have been done. The 'first user' check after servicing is especially important and must be recorded.

Real space soft x-ray imaging at 10 nm spatial resolution

Using Fresnel zone plates made with our robust nanofabrication processes, we have successfully achieved 10 nm spatial resolution with soft x-ray microscopy. The result, obtained with both a conventional full-field and scanning soft x-ray microscope, marks a significant step forward in extending the microscopy to truly nanoscale studies.

Selection against small males in utero: a test of the Wells hypothesis

BACKGROUND

The argument that women in stressful environments spontaneously abort their least fit fetuses enjoys wide dissemination despite the fact that several of its most intuitive predictions remain untested. The literature includes no tests, for example, of the hypothesis that these mechanisms select against small for gestational age (SGA) males.

METHODS

We apply time-series modeling to 4.9 million California male term births to test the hypothesis that the rate of SGA infants in 1096 weekly birth cohorts varies inversely with labor market contraction, a known stressor of contemporary populations.

RESULTS

We find support for the hypothesis that small size becomes less frequent among term male infants when the labor market contracts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute to the evidence supporting selection in utero. They also suggest that research into the association between maternal stress and adverse birth outcomes should acknowledge the possibility that fetal loss may affect findings and their interpretation. Strengths of our analyses include the large number and size of our birth cohorts and our control for autocorrelation. Weaknesses include that we, like nearly all researchers in the field, have no direct measure of fetal loss.