Revealing x-ray and gamma ray temporal and spectral similarities in the GRB 190829A afterglow

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which are bright flashes of gamma rays from extragalactic sources followed by fading afterglow emission, are associated with stellar core collapse events. We report the detection of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma rays from the afterglow of GRB 190829A, between 4 and 56 hours after the trigger, using the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). The low luminosity and redshift of GRB 190829A reduce both internal and external absorption, allowing determination of its intrinsic energy spectrum. Between energies of 0.18 and 3.3 tera-electron volts, this spectrum is described by a power law with photon index of 2.07 ± 0.09, similar to the x-ray spectrum. The x-ray and VHE gamma-ray light curves also show similar decay profiles. These similar characteristics in the x-ray and gamma-ray bands challenge GRB afterglow emission scenarios.

Noninvasive measure of treatment response in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: Insights from EMMINENCE and meta-analysis

Background and Aim

Liver histology changes are the current gold standard for evaluating non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), but are limited by their invasiveness and variability for sampling and interpretation. We evaluated noninvasive biomarkers as an indication of histologic changes in NASH.

Methods

Associations between 12-month biomarker and NASH Clinical Research Network histologic score changes in 339 patients with NASH in the EMMINENCE trial was examined with multivariable models and partial canonical correlation. A meta-analysis of 17 NASH trials including 3717 patients examined associations between these same changes and histologic response within treatment groups, and treatment effects on biomarkers and on liver histology. Biopsy measures assessed were changes in ballooning, steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis, NASH improvement without worsening of fibrosis, and fibrosis improvement without worsening of NASH. All analytic methods suggest that a combination of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), cytokeratin-18 (CK-18 [M30 or M65]), and hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) changes best predicts overall liver biopsy changes in response to interventions.

Results

The weighted average of standardized mean changes (0.403 × AST, 0.314 × CK-18, 0.283 × HbA1c) facilitated comparisons of within-group responses and treatment effects among studies included in the meta-analysis. This composite in EMMINENCE discriminated between patients with and without NASH resolution without worsening fibrosis with area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.7880, and for fibrosis improvement without NASH worsening of 0.7553.

Conclusion

A composite score based on changes in AST, HbA1c, and CK-18 could serve as a surrogate for liver histologic improvement and an effective objective, noninvasive tool for comparative assessment of treatment effects of novel interventions.

Medical Therapy of Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction-A Call for Comparative Research

The armamentarium of therapies for patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) has increase substantially with the introduction of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor (ARNi), sodium glucose cotransport inhibitors (SGLTis), ivabradine, and Vericinguat, bringing to seven the number of potential therapies for HFREF. In the current review we highlight available data on the different classes of medications. Renin angiotensin blockers (RAASbs) and beta blockers (BBs) were shown to have very substantial effects in patients with HFREF. These medications are generic and hence relatively inexpensive. They have a 30-year track record of relatively benign short- and long-term safety profiles and should remain the cornerstone of therapy for patients with HFREF. ARNis are effective in further reducing adverse effects and should replace RAASbs in symptomatic HFREF patients, despite their relatively high prices. The addition of SGLTis (congested patients), Ivabradine (tachycardic patients), and Vericinguat (hypertensive patients) should be considered in patients who remain symptomatic despite optimal doses of RAASbs/ARNis, MRAs, and BBs. Comparative studies examining the efficacy of these medications, and strategies and prioritizing some over others should be considered as, given their similar side effects on heart rate, blood pressure, and renal function, it is highly unlikely that all can be given to the same patient.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of black African heart failure patients with preserved, mid‐range, and reduced ejection fraction: a post hoc analysis of the THESUS‐HF registry

Aims

Limited data are available on clinical characteristics and prognosis of heart failure (HF) in black African populations especially with respect to current classifications and HF management guidelines.

Methods and results

In this post hoc analysis, African patients admitted with acute HF and enrolled in the THESUS‐HF registry in one of 12 hospitals in 9 countries were classified as having preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HFpEF), mid‐range LVEF (HFmrEF), and reduced LVEF (HFrEF) based on echocardiography performed close to the time of admission. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, management, and 60 and 180 day outcomes were compared between the groups. Of 888 patients with LVEF available, there were 472 (53.2%) with HFrEF, 174 (19.6%) with HFmrEF, and 243 (27.3%) with HFpEF. History of atrial fibrillation was higher in patients with HFmrEF (28.5%) than in patients with HFrEF (14.5%). Patients with HFrEF had a larger mean LV systolic diameter (54.1 ± 9.67 mm) than patients with HFmrEF (42.9 ± 8.47 mm), who had a larger mean LV diameter than patients with HFpEF (32.6 ± 8.64 mm); a similar pattern with LV diastolic diameter was observed. The mean posterior diastolic wall thickness (10.2 ± 2.94 mm) was lower in patients with HFrEF than in those with HFmrEF (11.1 ± 2.59 mm) and HFpEF (11.2 ± 2.90 mm). Patients with HFpEF were less likely to use angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blockers, and aldosterone inhibitors, and more likely to use beta‐blockers than those with HFrEF at either admission or discharge/Day 7. Death or readmission rates through Day 60 and 180 day death rates did not differ significantly among the groups; unadjusted hazard ratios relative to patients with HFrEF were 1.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84–2.08] and 1.24 (95% CI 0.82–1.89) for 60 day death or readmission and 0.92 (95% CI 0.59–1.43) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.51–1.20) for 180 day death in patients with HFmrEF and HFpEF, respectively.

Conclusions

Classification by LVEF according to European Society of Cardiology guidelines revealed some differences in clinical presentation but similar mortality and rehospitalization rates across all EF groups in Africans admitted for HF.

The Additive Prognostic Value of Serial Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels over Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Elevated plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations are frequently observed in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the predictive value of serial IL-6 measurements beyond brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) remains poorly characterized.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective analysis of the PROTECT cohort (2033 patients with AHF). Plasma IL-6 and BNP levels were determined on days 1, 2, 7 and 14 after admission for AHF in 1591 (78.3%), 1462 (71.9%), 1445 (71.1%) and 1451 (71.4%) patients, respectively. The primary endpoint was 180-day all-cause mortality. The median day-1 IL-6 concentration was 11.1 pg/mL (IQR: 6.6, 20.9) and decreased to 10.1 pg/mL (IQR: 5.6-18.5) at day-7. Higher cross-sectional IL-6 concentrations at all time-points predicted the primary endpoint, independent of a risk model for this cohort and changes in BNP. Each doubling of IL-6 between day-1 and day-7 predicted the primary endpoint independent of baseline IL-6 concentrations, the risk model, baseline BNP and changes in BNP [HR (95% CI): 1.18 (1.07-1.30), p=0.0013]. Collectively, 214 (17%) patients experienced at least a doubling of their IL-6 concentrations between day-1 and day-7.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that the temporal evolution patterns of IL-6 in patients with AHF have additive prognostic value independent of changes in BNP.

Is acute heart failure a distinctive disorder? An analysis from BIOSTAT-CHF

AIMS

This retrospective analysis sought to identify markers that might distinguish between acute heart failure (HF) and worsening HF in chronic outpatients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The BIOSTAT-CHF index cohort included 2516 patients with new or worsening HF symptoms: 1694 enrolled as inpatients (acute HF) and 822 as outpatients (worsening HF in chronic outpatients). A validation cohort included 935 inpatients and 803 outpatients. Multivariable models were developed in the index cohort using clinical characteristics, routine laboratory values, and proteomics data to examine which factors predict adverse outcomes in both conditions and to determine which factors differ between acute HF and worsening HF in chronic outpatients, validated in the validation cohort. Patients with acute HF had substantially higher morbidity and mortality (6-month mortality was 12.3% for acute HF and 4.7% for worsening HF in chronic outpatients). Multivariable models predicting 180-day mortality and 180-day HF readmission differed substantially between acute HF and worsening HF in chronic outpatients. Carbohydrate antigen 125 was the strongest single biomarker to distinguish acute HF from worsening HF in chronic outpatients, but only yielded a C-index of 0.71. A model including multiple biomarkers and clinical variables achieved a high degree of discrimination with a C-index of 0.913 in the index cohort and 0.901 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies different characteristics and predictors of outcome in acute HF patients as compared to outpatients with chronic HF developing worsening HF. The markers identified may be useful in better diagnosing acute HF and may become targets for treatment development.

N-terminal pro BNP and galectin-3 are prognostic biomarkers of acute heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa: lessons from the BAHEF trial

Aims

The relationship between N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐pro‐BNP) and galectin‐3 and outcomes has not been studied in African patients with acute heart failure (AHF). The current analysis sought to describe the association between plasma levels of NT‐pro‐BNP and galectin‐3 and cardiovascular (CV) death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization, as well as their associations with symptoms and echocardiography markers of left and right ventricular remodelling among AHF patientsv in sub‐Saharan Africa.

Methods and results

In a subset of 80 patients with complete data in a study assessing the effects of hydralazine and nitrates in patients with AHF (BAHEF trial; NCT01822808), NT‐pro‐BNP and galectin‐3 analyses were performed, and the association with various characteristics and outcome measures assessed. The mean age of the patients for whom the aforementioned biomarkers were measured was 52.6 years, with 52.5% women. Galectin‐3 at baseline predicted changes (Week 24 to baseline) in left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular end‐systolic diameter, left ventricular end‐diastolic diameter, and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion. Biomarkers and their changes were not associated with changes in 6 min walk test at 24 weeks. Baseline galectin‐3 and change in NT‐pro‐BNP were associated with improvements in dyspnoea at 24 weeks. Nine patients had an HF readmission or died of CV causes through 24 weeks (11.6%). Both biomarkers at baseline predicted combined CV death or HF hospitalization through Week 24 (P‐values = 0.0328 and 0.0001, respectively).

Conclusions

In a cohort of patients with AHF from sub‐Saharan Africa, NT‐pro‐BNP and galectin‐3 at baseline and their changes were associated with some changes in dyspnoea, echocardiographic remodelling, and CV death or HF hospitalization through Week 24. These tests have potential of being used for risk stratification of AHF patients in sub‐Saharan Africa where resources are scarce.

Cause of Death in Patients With Acute Heart Failure: Insights From RELAX-AHF-2

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to better understand the discrepant results of 2 trials of serelaxin on acute heart failure (AHF) and short-term mortality after AHF by analyzing causes of death of patients in the RELAX-AHF-2 (Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Serelaxin When Added to Standard Therapy in AHF-2) trial.

BACKGROUND

Patients with AHF continue to suffer significant short-term mortality, but limited systematic analyses of causes of death in this patient population are available.

METHODS

Adjudicated cause of death of patients in RELAX-AHF-2, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of serelaxin in patients with AHF across the spectrum of ejection fraction (EF), was analyzed.

RESULTS

By 180 days of follow-up, 11.5% of patients in RELAX-AHF-2 died, primarily due to heart failure (HF) (38% of all deaths). Unlike RELAX-AHF, there was no apparent effect of treatment with serelaxin on any category of cause of death. Older patients (≥75 years) had higher rates of mortality (14.2% vs. 8.8%) and noncardiovascular (CV) death (27% vs. 19%) compared to younger patients. Patients with preserved EF (≥50%) had lower rates of HF-related mortality (30% vs. 40%) but higher non-CV mortality (36% vs. 20%) compared to patients with reduced EF.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite previous data suggesting benefit of serelaxin in AHF, treatment with serelaxin was not found to improve overall mortality or have an effect on any category of cause of death in RELAX-AHF-2. Careful adjudication of events in the serelaxin trials showed that older patients and those with preserved EF had fewer deaths from HF or sudden death and more deaths from other CV causes and from noncardiac causes. (Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Serelaxin When Added to Standard Therapy in AHF [RELAX-AHF-2]; NCT01870778).

Cardiopoietic stem cell therapy in ischaemic heart failure: long-term clinical outcomes

Aims

This study aims to explore long‐term clinical outcomes of cardiopoiesis‐guided stem cell therapy for ischaemic heart failure assessed in the Congestive Heart Failure Cardiopoietic Regenerative Therapy (CHART‐1) trial.

Methods and results

CHART‐1 is a multinational, randomized, and double‐blind trial conducted in 39 centres in heart failure patients (n = 315) on standard‐of‐care therapy. The ‘active’ group received cardiopoietic stem cells delivered intramyocardially using a retention‐enhanced catheter. The ‘control’ group underwent patient‐level sham procedure. Patients were followed up to 104 weeks. In the entire study population, results of the primary hierarchical composite outcome were maintained neutral at Week 52 [Mann–Whitney estimator 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45–0.59, P = 0.51]. Landmark analyses suggested late clinical benefit in patients with significant left ventricular enlargement receiving adequate dosing. Specifically, beyond 100 days of follow‐up, patients with left ventricular end‐diastolic volume of 200–370 mL treated with ≤19 injections of cardiopoietic stem cells showed reduced risk of death or cardiovascular hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.16–0.91, P = 0.031) and cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.28, 95% CI 0.09–0.94, P = 0.040). Cardiopoietic stem cell therapy was well tolerated long term with no difference in safety readouts compared with sham at 2 years.

Conclusions

Longitudinal follow‐up documents that cardiopoietic stem cell therapy is overall safe, and post hoc analyses suggest benefit in an ischaemic heart failure subpopulation defined by advanced left ventricular enlargement on tolerable stem cell dosing. The long‐term clinical follow‐up thus offers guidance for future targeted trials.

Elevated plasma endothelin-1 is related to low natriuresis, clinical signs of congestion, and poor outcome in acute heart failure

AIMS

Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoconstrictor, which regulates renal and vascular function. We aimed to relate plasma levels of ET-1 with the clinical picture and outcomes in acute heart failure (AHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 113 patients with AHF [mean age 65 ± 13 (years), median (upper and lower quartiles) N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, 5422 (2689; 8582) (pg/mL)], in whom plasma levels of ET-1 were serially measured at admission (10.8 ± 5.2), Day 1 (9.5 ± 3.4), and Day 2 (8.9 ± 3.8) (pg/mL). The population was divided into tertiles across baseline ET-1 levels. Patients in the highest ET-1 tertile had predominant clinical signs of peripheral congestion; however, no difference was observed in pulmonary congestion and severity of dyspnoea. They also presented lower spot urine sodium at admission (75 ± 35 vs. 99 ± 43 vs. 108 ± 30), 6 h (84 ± 34 vs. 106 ± 43 vs. 106 ± 35), and Day 1 (75 ± 38 vs. 96 ± 36 vs. 100 ± 35) (mmol/L), when compared with the second and first tertile, respectively (all P < 0.05); furthermore, they received higher doses of intravenous furosemide from Day 2 and had longer intravenous diuretics, as median switch to oral furosemide was 4 (3; 4) vs. 3 (2; 4) vs. 2 (2; 3) (days), respectively, P < 0.05. There was no difference in serum creatinine, urea, and renal injury biomarkers (kidney injury molecule-1, serum cystatin C, and urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin) between the ET-1 tertiles. Higher values of ET-1 measured at each time point were related with a higher risk of 1 year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevation of ET-1 is related to clinical signs of peripheral congestion, low urine sodium excretion, and poor outcome in AHF.

Association of left ventricular ejection fraction with worsening renal function in patients with acute heart failure: insights from the RELAX-AHF-2 study

AIMS

Whether risk of worsening renal function (WRF) during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization or the association between in-hospital WRF and post-discharge outcomes vary according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is uncertain. We assessed incidence of WRF, factors related to its development and impact of WRF on post-discharge outcomes across the spectrum of LVEF in patients enrolled in RELAX-AHF-2.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 6112 patients who had LVEF measured on admission and renal function determined prospectively during hospitalization were included. WRF, defined as a rise in serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dL from baseline through day 5, occurred in 1722 patients (28.2%). Incidence increased progressively from lowest to highest LVEF quartile (P < 0.001). After baseline adjustment, WRF risk in Q4 (LVEF >50%) remained significantly greater than in Q1 (LVEF ≤29%; hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1-1.43; P = 0.050). Age and comorbidity burden including chronic kidney disease increased as LVEF increased. Neither admission haemodynamic abnormalities, extent of diuresis during hospitalization nor residual congestion explained the increased incidence of WRF in patients with higher LVEF. Serelaxin treatment and diuretic responsiveness were associated with reduced risk of WRF in all LVEF quartiles. WRF in patients in the upper three LVEF quartiles increased risk of post-discharge events.

CONCLUSIONS

Worsening renal function incidence during AHF hospitalization increases progressively with LVEF. Greater susceptibility of patients with higher LVEF to WRF appears more related to their advanced age and worse underlying kidney function rather than haemodynamic or treatment effects. WRF is associated with increased risk of post-discharge events except in patients in the lowest LVEF quartile.

Drug development in oncology and devices-lessons for heart failure drug development and approval? a review

Heart failure (HF) and cancer are of the most common diseases globally, both associated with significant adverse outcomes and greatly impaired quality of life. Despite those similarities, over the last 15 years, the United States (USA) and European authorities have approved only 5 and 3 new drugs for HF respectively, none using an accelerated process and none for patients with either acute HF (AHF) or with HF and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). During the same period, more than 100 new drugs were approved for treatment of various cancers, several receiving accelerated approval. HF drugs in the last 15 years were mostly approved for reduction in mortality, whereas most approved cancer drugs addressed disease progression and surrogate markers. Consequently, the size of the trials in HF were far greater than those in oncology which was associated with lower probability of success. Given the larger study size and smaller probability of approval, pharma progressively reduces the necessary investments in new HF drugs. We suggest for HF drugs be developed, especially those used to treat patients with HFpEF and AHF, consideration of approval based beyond morbidity and mortality on improvements in symptoms and functional capacity and, like oncology, based on measures of disease progression and end organ damage. At the same time, HF drug development should adopt some approaches used in other diseases (such as oncology) focusing on better defining specific phenotypes and defining specific disease-related targets for new drugs.

Improved cardiac and venous pressures during hospital stay in patients with acute heart failure: an echocardiography and biomarkers study

Aims

Changes in echocardiographic parameters and biomarkers of cardiac and venous pressures or estimated plasma volume during hospitalization associated with decongestive treatments in acute heart failure (AHF) patients with either preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HFPEF) or reduced LVEF (HFREF) are poorly assessed.

Methods and results

From the metabolic road to diastolic heart failure: diastolic heart failure (MEDIA‐DHF) study, 111 patients were included in this substudy: 77 AHF (43 HFPEF and 34 HFREF) and 34 non‐cardiac dyspnea patients. Echocardiographic measurements and blood samples were obtained within 4 h of presentation at the emergency department and before hospital discharge. In AHF patients, echocardiographic indices of cardiac and venous pressures, including inferior vena cava diameter [from 22 (16–24) mm to 13 (11–18) mm, P = 0.009], its respiratory variability [from 32 (8–44) % to 43 (29–70) %, P = 0.04], medial E/e' [from 21.1 (15.8–29.6) to 16.6 (11.7–24.3), P = 0.004], and E wave deceleration time [from 129 (105–156) ms to 166 (128–203) ms, P = 0.003], improved during hospitalization, similarly in HFPEF and HFREF patients. By contrast, no changes were seen in non‐cardiac dyspnea patients. In AHF patients, all plasma biomarkers of cardiac and venous pressures, namely B‐type natriuretic peptide [from 935 (514–2037) pg/mL to 308 (183–609) pg/mL, P < 0.001], mid‐regional pro‐atrial natriuretic peptide [from 449 (274–653) pmol/L to 366 (242–549) pmol/L, P < 0.001], and soluble CD‐146 levels [from 528 (406–654) ng/mL to 450 (374–529) ng/mL, P = 0.003], significantly decreased during hospitalization, similarly in HFPEF and HFREF patients. Echocardiographic parameters of cardiac chamber dimensions [left ventricular end‐diastolic volume: from 120 (76–140) mL to 118 (95–176) mL, P = 0.23] and cardiac index [from 2.1 (1.6–2.6) mL/min/m² to 1.9 (1.4–2.4) mL/min/m², P = 0.55] were unchanged in AHF patients, except tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) that improved during hospitalization [from 16 (15–19) mm to 19 (17–21) mm, P = 0.04]. Estimated plasma volume increased in both AHF [from 4.8 (4.2–5.6) to 5.1 (4.4–5.8), P = 0.03] and non‐cardiac dyspnea patients (P = 0.01). Serum creatinine [from 1.18 (0.90–1.53) to 1.19 (0.86–1.70) mg/dL, P = 0.89] and creatinine‐based estimated glomerular filtration rate [from 59 (40–75) mL/min/1.73m² to 56 (38–73) mL/min/1.73m², P = 0.09] were similar, while plasma cystatin C [from 1.50 (1.20–2.27) mg/L to 1.78 (1.33–2.59) mg/L, P < 0.001] and neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL) [from 127 (95–260) ng/mL to 167 (104–263) ng/mL, P = 0.004] increased during hospitalization in AHF.

Conclusions

Echocardiographic parameters and plasma biomarkers of cardiac and venous pressures improved during AHF hospitalization in both acute HFPEF and HFREF patients, while cardiac chamber dimensions, cardiac output, and estimated plasma volume showed minimal changes.

Acute heart failure: More questions than answers

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a life-threatening condition with a dramatic burden in terms of symptoms, morbidity and mortality. It is a specific syndrome requiring urgent, life-saving treatment. Multiple specific pathophysiologic mechanisms may be involved, including congestion, inflammation, and neurohormonal activation. This process eventually leads to symptoms, end-organ damage, and adverse outcomes. Clinical presentation varies, but it almost universally includes worsening of congestion associated with different degrees of hypoperfusion. Due to substantial early symptoms burden and high morbidity and mortality, patients with AHF require intensive monitoring and intravenous treatment. However, beyond variable improvement in congestion, none of the available intravenous therapies for AHF was shown to improve longer term outcomes. Although oral treatment with guideline-directed therapies for stable patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) before discharge may fully prevent subsequent episodes, proof that this strategy may benefit patients is lacking. First, most patients with AHF have preserved EF (HFpEF) where no therapies have been shown to be effective. Second, all therapies developed for patients with HFrEF were tested for efficacy on outcomes in patients who were stable without recent AHF. Hence, the implementation of these chronic therapies during an AHF episode is untested. Third, the problem to better treat AHF patients in their early phase remains crucial with treatment strategies largely untested, yet. Further studies targeting AHF specific mechanisms, such as inflammation and end-organ damage, and finding effective intravenous drugs remain therefore warranted.

Mega-trials in heart failure: effects of dilution in examination of new therapies

AIMS

Over the last 30 years, many medicine development programmes in acute and chronic heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have failed, in contrast to those in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). We explore how the neutral results in larger HF trials may be attributable to chance and/or the dilution of statistical power.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using simulations, we examined the probability that a positive finding in a Phase 2 trial would result in the study of a truly effective medicine in a Phase 3 trial. We assessed the similarity of clinical trial and registry patient populations. We conducted a meta-analysis of paired Phase 2 and 3 trials in HFrEF and acute HF examining the associations of trial phase and size with placebo event rates and treatment effects for HF events and death. We estimated loss in trial power attributable to dilution with increasing trial size. Appropriately powered Phase 3 trials should have yielded ∼35% positive results. Patient populations in Phase 3 trials are similar to those in Phase 2 trials but both differ substantially from the populations of 'real-life' registries. We observed decreasing placebo event rates and smaller treatment effects with increasing trial size, especially for HF events (and less so for mortality). This was more pronounced in trials in acute HF patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The selection of more positive Phase 2 trials for further development does not explain the failure of HFpEF and acute HF medicine development. Increasing sample size may lead to reduced event rates and smaller treatment effects, resulting in a high rate of neutral Phase 3 trials.

Effects of serelaxin in patients admitted for acute heart failure: a meta-analysis

AIMS

The effectiveness and safety of 48 h intravenous 30 μg/kg/day serelaxin infusion in acute heart failure (AHF) has been studied in six randomized, controlled clinical trials.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a fixed-effect meta-analysis including all studies of intravenous serelaxin initiated within the first 16 h of admission for AHF. Endpoints considered were the primary and secondary endpoints examined in the serelaxin phase III studies. In six randomized controlled trials, 6105 total patients were randomized to receive intravenous serelaxin 30 μg/kg/day and 5254 patients to control. Worsening heart failure to day 5 occurred in 6.0% and 8.1% of patients randomized to serelaxin and control, respectively (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89; P = 0.0002). Serelaxin had no statistically significant effect on length of stay, or cardiovascular death, or heart or renal failure rehospitalization. Serelaxin administration resulted in statistically significant improvement in markers of renal function and reductions in both N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin. No significant adverse outcomes were noted with serelaxin. Through the last follow-up, which occurred at an average of 4.5 months (1-6 months), serelaxin administration was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality, with an estimated hazard ratio of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.98; P = 0.0261).

CONCLUSIONS

Administration of intravenous serelaxin to patients admitted for AHF was associated with a highly significant reduction in the risk of 5-day worsening heart failure and in changes in renal function markers, but not length of stay, or cardiovascular death, or heart or renal failure rehospitalization. Serelaxin administration was safe and associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality.

Clinical value of pre-discharge bio-adrenomedullin as a marker of residual congestion and high risk of heart failure hospital readmission

AIMS

Recently, bio-adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) was proposed as a congestion marker in heart failure (HF). In the present study, we aimed to study whether bio-ADM levels at discharge from a hospital admission for worsening HF could provide additional information on (residual) congestion status, diuretic dose titration and clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Plasma bio-ADM was measured in 1236 acute HF patients in the PROTECT trial at day 7 or discharge. Median discharge bio-ADM was 33.7 [21.5-61.5] pg/mL. Patients with higher discharge bio-ADM levels were hospitalised longer, had higher brain natriuretic peptide levels, and poorer diuretic response (all P < 0.001). Bio-ADM was the strongest predictor of discharge residual congestion (clinical congestion score > 3) (odds ratio 4.35, 95% confidence interval 3.37-5.62; P < 0.001). Oedema at discharge was one of the strongest predictors of discharge bio-ADM (β = 0.218; P < 0.001). Higher discharge loop diuretic doses were associated with a poorer diuretic response during hospitalisation (β = 0.187; P < 0.001) and higher bio-ADM levels (β = 0.084; P = 0.020). High discharge bio-ADM levels combined with higher use of loop diuretics were independently associated with a greater risk of 60-day HF rehospitalisation (hazard ratio 4.02, 95% confidence interval 2.23-7.26; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In hospitalised HF patients, elevated pre-discharge bio-ADM levels were associated with higher discharge loop diuretic doses and reflected residual congestion. Patients with combined higher bio-ADM levels and higher loop diuretic use at discharge had an increased risk of rehospitalisation. Assessment of discharge bio-ADM levels may be a readily applicable marker to identify patients with residual congestion at higher risk of early hospital readmission.

Is plasma renin activity associated with worse outcomes in acute heart failure? A secondary analysis from the BLAST-AHF trial

AIMS

Neurohormonal activation characterizes chronic heart failure (HF) and is a well-established therapeutic target. Neurohormonal activation may also play a key role in acute HF (AHF). We aim to describe the association between plasma renin activity (PRA) and three AHF outcomes: (i) worsening HF or death through day 5 of hospitalization; (ii) HF rehospitalization or death through day 30; and (iii) all-cause death through day 30.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A secondary analysis of the BLAST-AHF trial was performed. Eligible patients had a history of HF, elevated natriuretic peptides, signs and symptoms of HF, systolic blood pressure >120 mmHg, and an estimated glomerular filtration rate between 20-75 mL/min/1.73 m² . The primary trial was neutral, with no differential effect of study drug by PRA levels. Baseline PRA levels were grouped into tertiles. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard model determined the association of PRA levels with outcomes (α set at P < 0.05). Of 618 randomized patients, 578 (93.5%) had a baseline PRA. PRA was modestly, but significantly, associated with each outcome without adjustment [worsening HF or death through day 5: hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.23, P = 0.04; HF rehospitalization or death through day 30: HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, P = 0.02; all-cause death through day 30: HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.37, P = 0.03]. After multivariable adjustment, PRA was only significantly associated with HF rehospitalization or death through day 30 (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.32, P = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Baseline PRA levels are associated with increased risk for the composite of 30-day HF rehospitalization or death in patients with AHF.

4329Mega-studies in heart failure, effect dilution in examination of new therapies

Aims

All phase 3 studies in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have failed in the last decades. We explore the likelihood that the negative results are due to chance and/or to study size and dilution of statistical power.

Methods and results

First, using simulations, we examined the probability that a positive finding in phase 2 would result in studying truly effective drugs in phase 3. We simulated phase 2 studies under six scenarios where the range of true relative risk (RR) for an outcome of interest varied from 0.5 (major benefit) to 1.15 (some harm). The proportion of simulated studies where the RR <0.8 (we assumed that a 20% or greater risk reduction reflects an effective drug) ranged from 6% to 42% across the six scenarios studied. To further simulate “real life” clinical research, we simulated a continuous surrogate outcome that was linearly related to the true RR in each simulation of each scenario. Regardless of criteria considered for a positive phase 2 trial, results suggest that even in our worst-case scenario, where overall only 6% of drugs taken into phase 2 are effective, roughly 20% of phase 3 studies, if appropriately powered, should have yielded positive results. Given this, we then explored study size in AHF research, as a potential explanation for the high failure rate in these studies. Comparison of published phase 2 and 3 clinical trials with registries in AHF suggest that populations in both large and small trials differ from “real life”. Meta-regression models suggest that both control event rates, and in the serelaxin program as an example, treatment effects, decline with increasing study size greatly reducing power (figure). This effect dilution might be explained by an increasing proportion of patients enrolled in studies who cannot benefit from the study drug.

Figure 1. Power at two-sided 0.05 significance level to detect an effect size of hazard ratio of 0.65 (left) or 0.8 (right) with a placebo event rate of 10% (top) and 20% (bottom) at N=100 at various treatment effect dilutions with increasing sample size.

Conclusion

These data suggest that it is unlikely that the very high rate of negative AHF phase III trials can be explained by chance alone. Potentially, our tendency to increase sample size does not necessarily increase statistical power, due to more heterogenous populations leading to reduced event rates and treatment effects.

Hepatorenal dysfunction identifies high-risk patients with acute heart failure: insights from the RELAX-AHF trial

AIMS

Episodes of acute heart failure (AHF) may lead to end-organ dysfunction. In this post hoc analysis of the Relaxin in Acute Heart Failure trial, we used the MELD-XI (Model of End-Stage Liver Dysfunction) score to examine hepatorenal dysfunction in patients with AHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

On admission, the MELD-XI score was elevated (abnormal) in 918 (82%) patients, with 638 (57%) having isolated renal dysfunction (creatinine > 1 mg/dL), 73 (6.5%) isolated liver dysfunction (bilirubin > 1 mg/dL), and 207 (18.5%) coexisting dysfunction of the kidneys and the liver (both creatinine and bilirubin > 1 mg/dL). The percentage of patients with elevated MELD-XI score remained constant through a 60 day follow-up, as we observed a gradual decrease of liver dysfunction prevalence, counterbalanced by an increase in renal dysfunction. Serelaxin treatment was associated with a lower MELD-XI score on Day 2 and Day 5 (both P < 0.05), but this difference vs. placebo disappeared during longer follow-up. In the multivariable model, an elevated MELD-XI score on admission was associated with higher 180 day mortality: hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for cardiovascular death were 3.10 (1.22-7.87), and for all-cause death 2.47 (1.19-5.15); both P < 0.05. The addition of the MELD-XI score to a prespecified prognostic model increased the discrimination of the model for all-cause death, but the increment in the C-index was only modest: 0.013 (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AHF, hepatorenal dysfunction is prevalent and related to poor outcome. The MELD-XI score is a useful prognosticator in AHF.