Pathology grade influences competing mortality risks in elderly men with prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines recommend active management of prostate cancer (CaP), especially high-risk disease, in elderly men. However, descriptive data from a large cohort with extended follow up on the risk of death from CaP in men diagnosed over 70 years of age and its relationship to Gleason score (GS) and serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) level is lacking. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we evaluated the influence of GS and serum PSA levels on the risks of mortality from PC (PCM) and mortality from other causes in localized (LPC) and metastatic (MPC) disease in elderly population.

METHODS

Men diagnosed with PC over 70 years of age between 2004 and 2016 were divided into LPC and MPC groups, categorized by age: 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, and ≥90 years and stratified by GS <7, 7, and >7, and serum PSA level <4, 4-10, 10-20, 20-50, and >50 ng/mL. Competing risk estimates for PCM and mortality from other causes were generated for both groups.

RESULTS

Of the 85,649 men, 85.5 % were LPC at diagnosis. Overall, at a median follow up of 4 years, 15% of the men had died including a third from PC. While <15% of men with GS ≤7 died from PC, the PCM was >30% in men with GS >7 in LPC group, which accounted for almost half of total deaths for age 70-84 years. The GS >7 was also significantly associated with PCM in men with MPC. Furthermore, PCM directly correlated with serum PSA levels, with mortality rates reaching up to 50% and 70% for PSA >50 ng/dl for LPC and MPC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a substantial risk of dying in men diagnosed with LPC over 70 years of age with GS >7 or a serum PSA >20 ng/mL. Furthermore, the risk for death for MPC directly correlated with GS with PCM increasing from 10%-30% for GS ≤7 to >50% for GS >7. The data, in conjunction with other clinical parameters such as comorbidities could be used to counsel elderly men on management options of PC for both localized and metastatic PC.

Prediction of COVID-19 pervasiveness in six major affected states of India and two-stage variation with temperature

Coronavirus disease knocked in Wuhan city of China in December 2019 which spread quickly across the world and infected millions of people within a short span of time. COVID-19 is a fast-spreading contagious disease which is caused by SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2). Accurate time series forecasting modeling is the need of the hour to monitor and control the universality of COVID-19 effectively, which will help to take preventive measures to break the ongoing chain of infection. India is the second highly populated country in the world and in summer the temperature rises up to 50°, nowadays in many states have more than 40° temperatures. The present study deals with the development of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of the number of COVID-19 infected people in most affected states of India and the effect of a rise in temperature on COVID-19 cases. Cumulative data of COVID-19 confirmed cases are taken for study which consists of 77 sample points ranging from 1st March 2020 to 16th May 2020 from six states of India namely Delhi (Capital of India), Madya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. The developed ARIMA model is further used to make 1-month ahead out of sample predictions for COVID-19. The performance of ARIMA models is estimated by comparing measures of errors for these six states which will help in understanding future trends of COVID-19 outbreak. Temperature rise shows slightly negatively correlated with the rise in daily cases. This study is noble to analyse the variation of COVID-19 cases with respect to temperature and make aware of the state governments and take precautionary measures to flatten the growth curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections in other states of India, nearby countries as well.

Radiation exposure in interventional cardiology: relationship between patient radiation dose, demographic characteristics and procedural factors

Introduction

There has been a significant increase in Interventional Cardiology (IC) procedures over last few decades across the globe. The introduction of newer techniques and procedure types in IC has contributed to an overall increase in radiation exposure to both operators and patients alike. Unlike diagnostic imaging, IC procedures are heterogeneous and vary in their complexity based on a myriad of factors, such as patient disease characteristics, anatomy, nature of lesions and operator technique.

Purpose

The aim of the study is to evaluate the demographic and procedural characteristics associated with increased radiation dose. Limited studies exist on the impact of demographic and procedural characteristics on cumulative radiation dose.

Methods

Single-centre retrospective observational study of elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) patients from October 2018 to December 2018 in a 24/7 Irish pPCI centre. Patient level data including weight, height, demographic and procedural characteristics were collected for 65 consecutive elective PCI cases. Radiation exposure metrics, including Kerma Area Product (Pka), Reference Air Kerma (Ka,r) and Fluoroscopy Time (FT), were also collected. A Mann-Whitney U Test was used to assess for differences in radiation exposure between groups and a multivariate regression analysis was performed in order to identify those variables which contributed to radiation exposure.

Results

Median total radiation exposure for our cohort was (Q1–3) -Pka 109 (61–154) Gy·cm2, Ka,r 1746 (1,082–2,530)mGy and FT 16 (10–25)mins. Males (n=48) had a significantly higher radiation exposure Pka 126 (84–171) vs 56 (27–114)Gy·cm2 p=0.001; Ka,r 2094 (1256–2936) mGy p=0.006) than females. Those who underwent femoral access had significantly lower radiation exposure (Pka 50 (38–77) vs 114 (63–158) Gy·cm2 p=0.019; Ka,r (897 (725–1094) vs 2020 (1092–2618) mGy; p=0.018) when compared to radial access. Increasing body mass index (BMI) (p=0.03), multi vessel PCI (p=0.001) and the use of a “sheathless” technique (p=0.029) were associated with increasing radiation exposure (r2=0.630 Pka; Ka,r r2=0.611). Stent characteristics and all other clinical risk factors (HTN, smoking, DM, renal impairment, previous PCI) had no significant impact on radiation exposure.

Conclusion

Radiation exposure during IC in our cohort was within the range of most European Diagnostic Reference Levels (DRL's). Increased BMI and male gender were associated with increased radiation exposure. Procedural characteristics such as radial access, multi vessel PCI and the use of sheathless technique were independently associated with increasing radiation exposure. We recommend dose documentation of all procedures for these patients to avoid radiation hazards; with periodic assessment of statistical dose recording and planned follow up.

Regression analysis

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Computed tomographic analysis of the prevalence of International Frontal Sinus Anatomy Classification cells and their association with frontal sinusitis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the radiological prevalence of frontal cells according to the International Frontal Sinus Anatomy Classification in patients undergoing computed tomography of the paranasal sinuses for clinical symptoms of chronic rhinosinusitis, and to examine the association between cell classification and frontal sinusitis development.

METHODS

A total of 180 (left and right) sides of 90 patients were analysed. The prevalence of each International Frontal Sinus Anatomy Classification cell was assessed. Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the distribution of various cells in patients with and without frontal sinusitis.

RESULTS

The agger nasi cell was the most commonly occurring cell, seen in 95.5 per cent of patients. The prevalence rates for supra agger cells, supra agger frontal cells, supra bullar frontal cells, supra bullar cells, supra-orbital ethmoid cells and frontal septal cells were 33.3 per cent, 22.2 per cent, 21.1 per cent, 36.1 per cent, 39.4 per cent and 21.1 per cent, respectively. There was no significant difference in the occurrence of any of the cell types in patients with frontal sinusitis compared to those without (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The presence of any of the International Frontal Sinus Anatomy Classification cells was not significantly associated with frontal sinusitis.

Study of ARIMA and least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) models for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in the most affected countries

Discussions about the recently identified deadly coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 are common around the globe now. This is an infectious and even life-threatening disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has rapidly spread to other countries from its originating place infecting millions of people globally. To understand future phenomena, strong mathematical models are required with the least prediction errors. In the present study, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) models are applied to the data consisting of daily confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the most affected five countries of the world for modeling and predicting one-month confirmed cases of this disease. To validate these models, the prediction results were tested by comparing it with testing data. The results revealed better accuracy of the LS-SVM model over the ARIMA model and also suggested a rapid rise of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in all the countries under study. This analysis would help governments to take necessary actions in advance associated with the preparation of isolation wards, availability of medicines and medical staff, a decision on lockdown, training of volunteers, and economic plans.

Characterization of circulating immune cells in acute Kawasaki disease suggests exposure to different antigens

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute pediatric vasculitis of unknown etiology that can cause coronary artery aneurysms, and is the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. We studied aspects of the innate and adaptive immune response in 17 acute KD children prior to treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin. Distinct patterns within the innate immune response correlated with specific clinical features. Proinflammatory myeloid dendritic cells (mDC) were abundant in four of 17 (23·5%) subjects who were older and manifested severe inflammation with clinical myocarditis and elevated hepatobiliary enzyme levels. Of the nine subjects with low levels of anti‐inflammatory, tolerogenic mDC, six had enlarged cervical lymph nodes at diagnosis. In contrast, the adaptive immune repertoire varied greatly with no discernible patterns or associations with clinical features. Two subjects with aneurysms had numerous circulating CD8⁺ T cells. Ten subjects showed low CD4⁺ T cell numbers and seven subjects had CD4⁺ T cells in the normal range. CD4⁺ T cells expressed interleukin‐7 receptor (IL‐7R), suggesting repeated antigenic stimulation. Thymic‐derived regulatory T cells (nT_reg) and peripherally induced regulatory T cells (iT_reg) were also enumerated, with the majority having the nT_reg phenotype. Natural killer (NK) and NK T cell numbers were similar across all subjects. Taken together, the results of the immune monitoring suggest that KD may have multiple triggers that stimulate different arms of the innate and adaptive compartment in KD patients. Thus, it is possible that diverse antigens may participate in the pathogenesis of KD.

Development of new hybrid model of discrete wavelet decomposition and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in application to one month forecast the casualties cases of COVID-19

Everywhere around the globe, the hot topic of discussion today is the ongoing and fast-spreading coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). Earlier detected in Wuhan, Hubei province, in China in December 2019, the deadly virus engulfed China and some neighboring countries, which claimed thousands of lives in February 2020. The proposed hybrid methodology involves the application of discreet wavelet decomposition to the dataset of deaths due to COVID-19, which splits the input data into component series and then applying an appropriate econometric model to each of the component series for making predictions of death cases in future. ARIMA models are well known econometric forecasting models capable of generating accurate forecasts when applied on wavelet decomposed time series. The input dataset consists of daily death cases from most affected five countries by COVID-19, which is given to the hybrid model for validation and to make one month ahead prediction of death cases. These predictions are compared with that obtained from an ARIMA model to estimate the performance of prediction. The predictions indicate a sharp rise in death cases despite various precautionary measures taken by governments of these countries.

Search for an Invisibly Decaying Z^{'} Boson at Belle II in e^{+}e^{-}→μ^{+}μ^{-}(e^{±}μ^{∓}) Plus Missing Energy Final States

Theories beyond the standard model often predict the existence of an additional neutral boson, the Z^{'}. Using data collected by the Belle II experiment during 2018 at the SuperKEKB collider, we perform the first searches for the invisible decay of a Z^{'} in the process e^{+}e^{-}→μ^{+}μ^{-}Z^{'} and of a lepton-flavor-violating Z^{'} in e^{+}e^{-}→e^{±}μ^{∓}Z^{'}. We do not find any excess of events and set 90% credibility level upper limits on the cross sections of these processes. We translate the former, in the framework of an L_{μ}-L_{τ} theory, into upper limits on the Z^{'} coupling constant at the level of 5×10^{-2}-1 for M_{Z^{'}}≤6  GeV/c^{2}.

Carbapenemase and ESBL genes with class 1 integron among fermenting and nonfermenting bacteria isolated from water sources from India

The present study was aimed to detect the carbapenemase, extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL), and intI1 gene of class 1 integron among fermenting (n = 61) and nonfermenting (n = 10) bacterial isolates recovered from water samples (n = 128). Isolates were identified by 16S rRNA sequencing. These isolates showed reduced-susceptibility to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems. The isolates varied in number and size of plasmids (2 kb to >20 kb). Plasmid DNA screening showed 5·6, 7, 11·2 and 26·7% prevalence of bla_KPC , bla_NDM , bla_SHV and bla_TEM genes respectively. Diverse bla_NDM (bla_NDM-1 and bla_NDM-4 ) and bla_SHV subtypes (bla_SHV-2 and bla_SHV-11 ) were recorded, unlike the single allelic bla_KPC (bla_KPC-2 ) and bla_TEM (bla_TEM-1 ) gene. Of the total 27 bla-gene-producing bacterial isolates, seven isolates co-harboured the carbapenemase genes (bla_NDM or bla_KPC or the both) along with the ESBL genes (bla_SHV or bla_TEM ). The intI1 gene of class 1 integron was detected among 12 (44·4%) of ESBL- and/or carbapenemase-harbouring isolates. Gene transferability was seen among four of the 10 Enterobacteriaceae donors. Carbapenemases and ESBLs with class 1 integron among aquatic environmental isolates raise the serious issue of the biosecurity and health of the ecosystem. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Anthropologically affected and polluted environment harbours the resistance threats, where a diverse bacterial species maintain, develop and exchange genetic determinants that constitute a risk to human and ecological health. The antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Enterobacteriaceae and non-Enterobacteriaceae bacteria caused the failure of the therapy of last resort (carbapenems) and thus lead to life-threatening infections affecting public health. Surveillance and monitoring of AMR could be important for epidemiological, diagnostic testing and control of pathogens. This is a point-prevalence study reporting the comparative occurrence and co-occurrence of carbapenemase and extended-spectrum β-lactamase genes among fermenting and nonfermenting bacteria isolated from the aquatic environment in India.

P951The factors influencing total ischaemic time in patients presenting with STEMI in an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background

Despite highly functioning primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) programmes, STEMI is still associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The European Society of Cardiology STEMI guidelines in 2017 introduced a novel metric relating to STEMI patients: “total ischaemic time”. This time-period starts at the onset of chest pain and ends at wire cross, and it is thought to accurately reflect burden of myocardial destruction.

Aims

To assess the total ischaemic time of patients presenting with STEMI in an Irish tertiary referral centre and the factors influencing delays in presentation and treatment.

Methods

Prospective cohort analysis was conducted on all patients presenting with STEMI from October 2017 to January 2019. Patients were included if they had a culprit lesion that was successfully revascularized. All information was recorded at time of presentation. Bayesian statistics were employed to conduct the analysis.

Results

158 patients were recruited. Mean age was 61 (range29–96). Male:female ratio 5:1 in this cohort. Average total ischaemic time was 409.4mins ±501.4. The average time from chest pain to “call for help” (i.e. patient delay) was 208.3mins ±397.8, which represented 50.89% of the total ischaemic time (see Figure 1). The average time from “call for help” to first medical contact (FMC) was 18.4mins ±30.07. Average time from FMC to ECG was 44.9mins ±151.16, and was dependent upon type of FMC (Primary care 127mins vs paramedic 25mins p=0.030932). After FMC, 48.7% of patients had an ECG performed in under 10mins as per guidelines. After ECG was performed, 46.4% of patients had ECG to “wire cross” time under 90mins as per guidelines; 65.8% were within 120 mins and 91.4% were within 180mins. Those presenting to their general practitioner as FMC were significantly less likely to have both an ECG <10mins (NNH 2.84 95% CI 1.79–6.91) and ECG to wire time of <90mins (NNH 6.13 95% CI 2.88–48.70).

As age increased, so too did total ischaemic time (Pearson R=0.164, p=0.043), which was dependent on increasing patient delay with age (Pearson R=0.2181, p=0.0066). Women had a higher total ischaemic time than men (546 vs 382mins p=0.0233). This was determined to be as a result of: a numerically higher patient delay (220 vs 206 mins, p=0.214) and women having a longer time from FMC to ECG (104mins vs 34mins, p=0.0021).

Conclusion

Over 50% of the total ischaemic time was due to patient delay, suggesting a role for cardiovascular awareness programmes. Increasing age was associated with longer patient delay, indicating a need for directed awareness in this demographic. Women had a higher total ischaemic time, and waited a significantly longer time for ECG following FMC; highlighting the need for awareness amongst healthcare professionals of atypical clinical features associated with STEMI in women. Patients who attended their GP waited longer for an ECG and, once performed, were less likely to be revascularised within 90mins.

P2656Real-world Outcomes for STEMI in octogenarians and nonagenarians: A 5-year review from an Irish primary PCI centre

Background

Progress made by modern healthcare has led to improved life expectancy across the globe. This progress, however, also means that individuals are living with more chronic illnesses and co-morbidities than in previous generations. Due to this aging population, we can expect increasing rates of STEMI in octogenarians and nonagenarians in the future. The challenge of older patients with STEMI is that they are particularly high-risk for complications. At present, very little is known about the outcomes of STEMI in the very old population because they were under-represented in previous studies. Many cardiologists around the world have been hesitant in performing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in octogenarians and nonagenarians due to fear of complications and poor outcomes.

Purpose

To review the trend of octogenarians and nonagenarians presenting with STEMI and to assess the 30-day and 1-year mortality rates.

Methods

A single-centre retrospective observational study was conducted. All patients presenting with STEMI between January 2012 and December 2017 were reviewed. Individuals aged 80 years or older were included for the purpose of this analysis. Patient level data was collected by chart review and individuals were identified using the local STEMI database. Standard Bayesian statistics were employed for analysis.

Results

1,268 patients presented with STEMI during this period. 172 (13.6%) were 80 years or older. Of this subgroup, 159/172 (92.4%) were true STEMI (figure 1). 124/159 (77.9%) patients were brought to the catheterization lab and 35/159 (22%) were managed medically on the ward.107/159 (67.29%) were treated with PPCI. Patients in the PPCI group had a 30-day mortality rate of 20.6% while those in the medically managed group had a mortality rate of 37.1%; with a trend towards statistical significance (p=0.07). The one-year mortality rate in patients treated with PPCI was 22.4% which was significantly lower than those who received medical management 48.6% (p=0.005).

Conclusions

This review demonstrates that there is a high mortality rate with STEMI in those aged 80 years or above, however, patients who are treated with PPCI tend to do better and have a significantly lower mortality rate at 1-year. The incidence of STEMI in the very old cohort is likely to continue to rise and this may prove challenging. PPCI remains the most feasible treatment approach towards STEMI and this should not be biased based on age, however, interventionists will need to take into account patient suitability on a case-by case basis. Octogenarians who undergo angiography and PPCI as required have 77.6% survival at 1 year (figure 1) with 92.4% likelihood of going home and don't require long term nursing home care.

Acknowledgement/Funding

University Hospital Limerick

Azimuthal Anisotropy of Heavy-Flavor Decay Electrons in p-Pb Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

Angular correlations between heavy-flavor decay electrons and charged particles at midrapidity (|η|<0.8) are measured in p-Pb collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV. The analysis is carried out for the 0%-20% (high) and 60%-100% (low) multiplicity ranges. The jet contribution in the correlation distribution from high-multiplicity events is removed by subtracting the distribution from low-multiplicity events. An azimuthal modulation remains after removing the jet contribution, similar to previous observations in two-particle angular correlation measurements for light-flavor hadrons. A Fourier decomposition of the modulation results in a positive second-order coefficient (v_{2}) for heavy-flavor decay electrons in the transverse momentum interval 1.5<p_{T}<4  GeV/c in high-multiplicity events, with a significance larger than 5σ. The results are compared with those of charged particles at midrapidity and those of inclusive muons at forward rapidity. The v_{2} measurement of open heavy-flavor particles at midrapidity in small collision systems could provide crucial information to help interpret the anisotropies observed in such systems.