Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection

BACKGROUND

Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse.

METHODS

A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further.

RESULTS

Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

Management of rhythm disorders in Duchenne muscular dystrophy: Is sudden death a cardiac or pulmonary problem?

Dystrophin deficiency results in the cardiomyopathy of variable onset and deficiency. Myocardial scarring commonly results in cardiac dysfunction, with both atrial and ventricular dysrhythmias. Heart failure, rather than arrhythmia burden, remains the strongest cardiac predictor of mortality in this patient population. Current data suggest the overall rate of sudden cardiac death in pediatric dilated cardiomyopathy is significantly lower than in adults. Specifically, in the Duchenne cardiomyopathy population, sudden death from an arrhythmic cause appears to be rare, even in patients with previously diagnosed arrhythmias. Despite this, recommendations for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement in patients with Duchenne cardiomyopathy has traditionally been extrapolated from adult heart failure recommendations based on decreased left ventricular ejection fraction <35%. Early involvement of the cardiologist in the care for patients with dystrophin-deficient cardiomyopathy is recommended for this reason. The indications for ICD placement to prevent sudden death in patients with Duchenne cardiomyopathy are not well defined. There is little evidence to suggest that placement meaningfully prolongs life in this population, and should be carefully considered in accordance with the care goals of the patient and his family.

Evidence for X(3872)→J/ψπ^{+}π^{-} Produced in Single-Tag Two-Photon Interactions

We report the first evidence for X(3872) production in two-photon interactions by tagging either the electron or the positron in the final state, exploring the highly virtual photon region. The search is performed in e^{+}e^{-}→e^{+}e^{-}J/ψπ^{+}π^{-}, using 825  fb^{-1} of data collected by the Belle detector operated at the KEKB e^{+}e^{-} collider. We observe three X(3872) candidates, where the expected background is 0.11±0.10 events, with a significance of 3.2σ. We obtain an estimated value for Γ[over ˜]_{γγ}B(X(3872)→J/ψπ^{+}π^{-}) assuming the Q^{2} dependence predicted by a cc[over ¯] meson model, where -Q^{2} is the invariant mass squared of the virtual photon. No X(3915)→J/ψπ^{+}π^{-} candidates are found.

A single centre evaluation of risk prediction models and imaging modalities in acute appendicitis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with suspected appendicitis remain a diagnostic challenge. The aim of this study was to validate risk prediction models, and to investigate diagnostic accuracy of ultrasonography and computed tomography (CT) in adults undergoing appendicectomy.

METHODS

A retrospective case review was performed of patients aged 16-45 years having an appendicectomy between January 2019 and January 2020 at a tertiary referral centre. Primary outcomes were the accuracy of a high risk appendicitis risk score and ultrasonography and CT imaging modalities compared with histological reports following appendicectomy.

RESULTS

A total of 206 patients (52% female) were included in the study. Removal of a histologically normal appendix was equally likely in men and women (13.1% vs 11.2% respectively, relative risk: 1.17, 95% confidence interval: 0.56-2.44, p=0.674). A high risk appendicitis score correctly identified 84.0% (79/94) of cases in men and 85.9% (67/78) of cases in women. Ultrasonography was reported as equivocal in 85.7% (18/21) of low risk women and 59.0% (23/39) of high risk women. CT correctly detected or excluded appendicitis in 75.0% (6/8) of low risk women and 88.5% (23/26) of high risk women.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that risk prediction models may be useful in both women and men to identify appendicitis. Ultrasonography gave high rates of equivocal results and should not be relied on for the diagnosis of appendicitis. CT is a highly accurate diagnostic tool and could be considered in those at low risk where clinical suspicion remains to reduce negative appendicectomy rates.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area.

No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels.

This event near the “horse capital of Australia”, is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

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In June 2019 the southernmost known equine case of Hendra virus was detected in the Hunter Valley, Australia.

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This signified an increase in potential equine and human populations at risk of infection.

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Interagency collaboration between animal and human health experts is essential in managing Hendra virus spillover events.

Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-positive optic neuritis with considerable white blood cell elevation in cerebrospinal fluid

We present a case with an atypical presentation of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein associated disease (MOGAD) presenting with optic neuritis, short-segment transverse myelitis, and significant lymphocytic pleocytosis. The degree of lymphocytic pleocytosis in this case was unusually high and prompted extensive workup. Broad infectious and neoplastic work-up was unremarkable and raised the concern for aseptic meningitis. A literature review was performed of similar cases with documented CSF labs (see Table 1), which demonstrates the unique and significant pleocytosis noted in this case.

Measurement of R(D) and R(D^{*}) with a Semileptonic Tagging Method

The experimental results on the ratios of branching fractions R(D)=B(B[over ¯]→Dτ^{-}ν[over ¯]_{τ})/B(B[over ¯]→Dℓ^{-}ν[over ¯]_{ℓ}) and R(D^{*})=B(B[over ¯]→D^{*}τ^{-}ν[over ¯]_{τ})/B(B[over ¯]→D^{*}ℓ^{-}ν[over ¯]_{ℓ}), where ℓ denotes an electron or a muon, show a long-standing discrepancy with the standard model predictions, and might hint at a violation of lepton flavor universality. We report a new simultaneous measurement of R(D) and R(D^{*}), based on a data sample containing 772×10^{6}  BB[over ¯] events recorded at the ϒ(4S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB e^{+}e^{-} collider. In this analysis the tag-side B meson is reconstructed in a semileptonic decay mode and the signal-side τ is reconstructed in a purely leptonic decay. The measured values are R(D)=0.307±0.037±0.016 and R(D^{*})=0.283±0.018±0.014, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. These results are in agreement with the standard model predictions within 0.2, 1.1, and 0.8 standard deviations for R(D), R(D^{*}), and their combination, respectively. This work constitutes the most precise measurements of R(D) and R(D^{*}) performed to date as well as the first result for R(D) based on a semileptonic tagging method.

Combined vEEG and Cerebral Oximetry Results to Determine the Severity of Hypoxic–Ischemic Encephalopathy

The objectives of the study were to evaluate the prognostic utility of bedside monitoring tools for hypoxic–ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) outcome and develop a prognostic predictive model. This retrospective study reviewed neonatal HIE treated with hypothermia between 2013 and 2016. Continuous video electroencephalography (vEEG) recordings scored for background electrocerebral activity, seizure, and sleep–wake cycles, and rSO2 data were stratified by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) severity. The vEEG and rSO2 were combined in a predictive model. The analysis included 38 patients. The rSO2 was significantly higher in the severe group. vEEG showed early and persistent maximal suppression in the severe group. The predictive correlation of the rSO2 improves when combined with the vEEG.

Observation of the Radiative Decays of ϒ(1S) to χ_{c1}

We report the first observation of the radiative decay of the ϒ(1S) into a charmonium state. The significance of the observed signal of ϒ(1S)→γχ_{c1} is 6.3 standard deviations including systematics. The branching fraction is calculated to be B[ϒ(1S)→γχ_{c1}]=[4.7_{-1.8}^{+2.4}(stat)_{-0.5}^{+0.4}(sys)×10^{-5}]. We also searched for ϒ(1S) radiative decays into χ_{c0,2} and η_{c}(1S,2S), and set upper limits on their branching fractions. These results are obtained from a 24.9  fb^{-1} data sample collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e^{+}e^{-} collider at a center-of-mass energy equal to the ϒ(2S) mass using ϒ(1S) tagging by the ϒ(2S)→ϒ(1S)π^{+}π^{-} transitions.

The impact of a psychosocial program on clinical outcomes for severe psychiatric disorders

BACKGROUND

This retrospective study evaluated the impact of a psychosocial program on individuals with severe and chronic psychiatric disorders. This study also examined potential modifiable predictors of hospitalization.

METHODS

The sample was comprised of 94 individuals with severe and chronic mental illness who were followed in the Community Support Network (CSN), a psychosocial program. Data from initial assessment at admission to the CSN were compared with the last assessment after admission, during data abstraction. Data were analyzed using analysis of variance for hospitalization, accommodation (housing), and employment, and the logistic regression procedure was used to analyze the relationship among potential modifiable clinical independent variables and hospitalization.

RESULTS

Admission to CSN significantly reduced hospitalization rates. Presence of psychotic symptoms increased the likelihood of hospitalization, and the use of support groups, antidepressants, and mood stabilizers decreased the risk for hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that CSN reduced hospitalization rates as well as increased employment, and the switch from the Assertive Community Treatment program to the Community Support Team program in 2007 did not change this effect. The overall significant reduction in psychiatric symptoms could explain these positive findings.

Heart rate variability and inflammatory markers in neonates with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

To examine heart rate variability (HRV) and inflammatory markers as predictors for neurological injury in neonates undergoing therapeutic hypothermia for hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). We hypothesized that HRV would differentiate between infants with no/mild injury and infants with moderate/severe injury observed on MRI. Because HRV can be associated with the inflammatory cascade, cytokine concentrations were compared with the severity of brain injury indicated by MRI. Further, we studied the effect of temperature, sex, and mechanical ventilation on HRV. HRV was prospectively collected on neonates with HIE using spectral analysis for low and high frequency components (n = 16). A subset (n = 10) of neonates had serum available for inflammatory cytokine analysis obtained during cooling. Neonates were stratified into no/mild or moderate/severe injury based on MRI obtained after rewarming. Differences in HRV were identified; lower low frequency power predicted more injury on MRI. Additionally, in neonates with HIE after cooling procedure, HRV differed by gender. Elevated RANTES (CCL5) and decreased GM-CSF (Granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor) at 96 hours predicted less severe injury. In this small study, HRV differs between no/mild and moderate/severe injury in neonates with HIE. With further study, this may aid the clinician in real-time decision making. HRV differs by gender. Finally, inflammatory biomarkers may help elucidate the pathophysiology of HIE.

Cytoarchitectonically-driven MRI atlas of nonhuman primate hippocampus: Preservation of subfield volumes in aging

Identification of primate hippocampal subfields in vivo using structural MRI imaging relies on variable anatomical guidelines, signal intensity differences, and heuristics to differentiate between regions (Yushkevich et al., 2015a). Thus, a clear anatomically-driven basis for subfield demarcation is lacking. Recent work, however, has begun to develop methods to use ex vivo histology or ex vivo MRI (Adler et al., 2014; Iglesias et al., 2015) that have the potential to inform subfield demarcations of in vivo images. For optimal results, however, ex vivo and in vivo images should ideally be matched within the same healthy brains, with the goal to develop a neuroanatomically-driven basis for in vivo structural MRI images. Here, we address this issue in young and aging rhesus macaques (young n = 5 and old n = 5) using ex vivo Nissl-stained sections in which we identified the dentate gyrus, CA3, CA2, CA1, subiculum, presubiculum, and parasubiculum guided by morphological cell properties (30 μm thick sections spaced at 240 μm intervals and imaged at 161 nm/pixel). The histologically identified boundaries were merged with in vivo structural MRIs (0.625 × 0.625 × 1 mm) from the same subjects via iterative rigid and diffeomorphic registration resulting in probabilistic atlases of young and old rhesus macaques. Our results indicate stability in hippocampal subfield volumes over an age range of 13 to 32 years, consistent with previous results showing preserved whole hippocampal volume in aged macaques (Shamy et al., 2006). Together, our methods provide a novel approach for identifying hippocampal subfields in non-human primates and a potential 'ground truth' for more accurate identification of hippocampal subfield boundaries on in vivo MRIs. This could, in turn, have applications in humans where accurately identifying hippocampal subfields in vivo is a critical research goal.

Abstract P1-09-14: Demographic, clinical/disease characteristics, and treatment of patients with germline mutated metastatic breast cancer: A CancerLinQ study

Objective: To describe the demographics, clinical/disease characteristics and treatment patterns of patients with germline BRCA mutated (gBRCAm) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) as compared to those with gBRCA wild type (wt) and those who are untested for gBRCA mutations.

Methods: The CancerlinQ Discovery Database (CLQ), launched by the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) in 2016, consists of longitudinal, demographic and geographic diverse data aggregated from oncology practice electronic health record (EHR) databases. Natural language processing and technology-enabled curation are utilized to identify records of most interest, followed by manual curation to abstract information from unstructured EHR fields. This cohort consists of 7,889 patients diagnosed with mBC between 1982 and 2018, and is enriched for patients with gBRCA testing through the curation process.

Results: Overall most patients were female (99.0%), white (55.3%), and the median age at mBC diagnosis was 63 years (yrs). The majority were not tested for gBRCA mutation (88.4%); 2.0% were gBRCAm, 9.2% were gBRCAwt, 0.4% had an undetermined test result, and 0.1% had a variant of unknown significance. Among those tested for estrogen-receptor (ER) (n=6,700) and progesterone-receptor (PR) (n=6,737) status, 76.6% were ER positive (+) and 62.2% were PR+. Among those tested for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) (n=6,696), 21.7% were HER2+. Among those with known results for ER, PR, and HER2 (n=6,063), 10.1% were hormone receptor (HR)+/HER2+, 10.6% were HR negative (-)/HER2+, 65.0% were HR+/HER2-, and 14.3% were HR-/HER2-. The median age at mBC diagnosis was 50 yrs for gBRCAm, 51 yrs for gBRCAwt and 64 yrs among the gBRCA untested group. A similar proportion of patients were diagnosed with metastatic disease among the gBRCAm and gBRCAwt groups (25.3% and 20.3%, respectively), while the proportion was higher among the gBRCA untested group (38.0 %). The most common site of metastasis for all groups was bone (35.1% for gBRCAm, 41.7% for gBRCAwt, and 36.5 % for gBRCA untested), followed by liver (16.2% for gBRCAm, 13.3% for gBRCAwt, and 8.5% for gBRCA untested). The most common first-line therapies for gBRCAm patients were tamoxifen (7.7%), letrozole (7.0%), cyclophosphamide+doxorubicin (6.3%), and paclitaxel (6.3%); for gBRCAwt patients they were cyclophosphamide+doxorubicin (6.6%), paclitaxel (6.4%), and tamoxifen (6.4%); and for gBRCA untested patients they were letrozole (11.1%), fulvestrant (9.3%), and tamoxifen (4.6%). The mean number of lines of therapy (including lines of chemotherapy and hormone therapy) were 3.5, 3.8, and 3.4 for the gBRCAm, gBRCAwt, and gBRCA untested groups, respectively.

Conclusions: Patients with gBRCAm were younger than the gBRCA untested group, and more patients had metastatic disease at diagnosis in the gBRCA untested group. Further analyses accounting for HR and HER2 status will be conducted and presented. This is the first example of research using curated breast cancer data from ASCO's CLQ.

Citation Format: Dalvi T, Herr I, Maclachlan S, Briceno J, Bennett J, McLaurin K, Hettle R, McCutcheon S. Demographic, clinical/disease characteristics, and treatment of patients with germline mutated metastatic breast cancer: A CancerLinQ study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-09-14.

Abstract P3-08-03: Dissecting the heterogeneity of metaplastic breast cancer: A morphological, immunohistochemical and genomic analysis of a large cohort

Although rare, Metaplastic Breast Carcinomas (MBC) account for significant global breast cancer mortality. This subgroup is extremely heterogeneous and by definition exhibits metaplastic change to squamous and/or mesenchymal elements, including but not limited to spindle, squamous, chondroid, osseous and rhabdomyoid elements. The WHO working group recognizes that the current classification is inadequate and in the interim, has suggested a purely descriptive classification. The mixed epithelial-mesenchymal morphology has led to speculation that MBC represent 'stem cell tumours'; in support of this, MBC have been shown to have a CD44+/CD24-/low phenotype. Clinically, patients present with tumours that are larger (higher stage), have increased likelihood of distant metastases at presentation and overall, have a reduced 5-year survival rate compared to Invasive Carcinoma-NST. Hence, this is a unique subtype with poor outcome but without a robust classification or understanding of the biology to aid clinical management. We present a detailed morphological, immunohistochemical and genomic analysis of a large series of MBC (n=347), as amassed through the Asia-Pacific MBC consortium. We consider our morphological dissection using the WHO subtyping guidelines and show that an increasing number of phenotypes in a mixed MBC (classified as WHO_1) significantly associates with a poor prognosis. Immunohistochemical analysis showed that a pure spindle (WHO_5) is significantly less likely to express vimentin, CK5/6, CK14, and CK19 than a mixed WHO_1 with spindle features. Similarly, a WHO_1 with chondroid features is less likely to express EGFR than WHO_1 with chondroid features and rhabdoid or osseous differentiation. Across the cohort, positivity for the AE1/3 antibody and a lack of EGFR expression both significantly associate with a better outcome. We report no significant association between patient age at diagnosis and breast cancer specific survival, nor between age and specific WHO MBC subtypes. We report a significant association between WHO_1 types and increasing tumour grade, and also between tumour size and grade, with tumour size being a highly significant prognostic indicator in this cohort. Our exome sequencing confirms a significant enrichment for TP53 and PTEN mutations in MBC, and intriguingly for concurrent mutations of TP53, PTEN and PIK3CA. A novel enrichment for NF1 mutations is also presented. In summary, we provide a thorough assessment of a large cohort of MBC, including morphology, survival, IHC and exome sequencing, and present our analysis contextualized by the WHO guidelines, extending the existing knowledge base of this rare tumour type.

Citation Format: McCart Reed AE, Kalaw E, Nones K, Bettington M, Lim M, Bennett J, Johnstone K, Kutasovic JR, Kazakoff S, Xu QC, Saunus JM, Reid LE, Black D, Niland C, Ferguson K, Gresshoff I, Raghavendra A, Liu JC, Kalinowski L, Reid AS, Davidson M, Pearson JV, Yamaguchi R, Harris G, Tse G, Papadimos D, Pathmanathan R, Pathmanathan N, Tan PH, Fox S, O'Toole S, Waddell N, Simpson PT, Lakhani SR. Dissecting the heterogeneity of metaplastic breast cancer: A morphological, immunohistochemical and genomic analysis of a large cohort [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-08-03.

Abstract P1-09-13: A real world evidence study of BRCA mutations and survival in HER2-negative breast cancer

Background: Limited data exist on the natural history (treated with standard of care) of metastatic breast cancer (mBC) characterized by germline breast cancer susceptibility gene mutations (gBRCAm). Real-world data examining survival for patients with gBRCAm mBC, overall and separated into gBRCA1m and gBRCA2m, compared to gBRCA wild type (wt) mBC, can help to clarify the prognostic outlook associated with the gBRCA mutation.

Methods: Adults with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2-) mBC diagnosed from January 2013 – August 2017 were retrospectively selected from the Flatiron Health Oncology electronic medical record database. Patients were classified as having gBRCA1m, gBRCA2m, or gBRCAwt disease. Those who did not receive the genetic testing or who had equivocal results were classified as gBRCA unknown. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from first diagnosis of mBC, as well as from the start of first- and second-line therapy for metastatic disease. Lines of therapy included both hormonal and systemic therapies. Kaplan-Meier analyses provided median OS with 95% confidence interval (CI). Unadjusted log-rank tests compared OS between gBRCA1m and gBRCA2m, and between overall gBRCAm and gBRCAwt.

Results: Of 8,080 patients selected, mean age at first mBC diagnosis was 64 years, 98.7% were female, and 82.0% had evidence of hormone receptor positive disease. gBRCA status was known for 1,852 (22.9%) of patients, of whom 89 (4.8%) had gBRCA1m, 152 (8.2%) had gBRCA2m, and 8 (0.4%) had both gBRCA mutations. Patients with known gBRCA status were younger, with mean ages of 52 years for gBRCAm, 55 years for gBRCAwt, and 67 years for gBRCA unknown. Hormone receptor positive disease was less common among those with known gBRCA status (71.9%, 77.2%, and 83.6% for gBRCAm, gBRCAwt, and gBRCA unknown, respectively). Median (95% CI) OS from mBC diagnosis was 22 (14 - 26) months for gBRCA1m and 30 (27 - 37) months for gBRCA2m (p = 0.01), though numbers were quite small by the median timepoint. Overall gBRCAm disease was associated with median survival of 28 (25 - 32) months, compared to 32 (30 - 35) months for gBRCAwt (p = 0.07); survival was similar between groups for the first 24 months but declined thereafter in the gBRCAm group. Similar patterns were observed for OS after the start of first- and second-line therapy, although no comparisons were significant. Further analyses will present adjusted results and comparisons with outcomes for the patients with gBRCA unknown.

Conclusions: This real-world study of patients receiving care in largely community oncology clinics suggests that survival after diagnosis of mBC is reduced in patients with gBRCA1m compared to gBRCA2m disease and may be reduced in gBRCAm mBC overall. Effective treatments targeted for the gBRCAm subtypes of mBC appear to be needed.

Citation Format: Dalvi T, McLaurin K, Briceno J, Nordstrom B, Bennett J, Hettle R, Murphy B, Collins J, McCutcheon S. A real world evidence study of BRCA mutations and survival in HER2-negative breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-09-13.