The strength of phenotypic selection in natural populations

How strong is phenotypic selection on quantitative traits in the wild? We reviewed the literature from 1984 through 1997 for studies that estimated the strength of linear and quadratic selection in terms of standardized selection gradients or differentials on natural variation in quantitative traits for field populations. We tabulated 63 published studies of 62 species that reported over 2,500 estimates of linear or quadratic selection. More than 80% of the estimates were for morphological traits; there is very little data for behavioral or physiological traits. Most published selection studies were unreplicated and had sample sizes below 135 individuals, resulting in low statistical power to detect selection of the magnitude typically reported for natural populations. The absolute values of linear selection gradients |beta| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of 0.16, suggesting that strong directional selection was uncommon. The values of |beta| for selection on morphological and on life-history/phenological traits were significantly different: on average, selection on morphology was stronger than selection on phenology/life history. Similarly, the values of |beta| for selection via aspects of survival, fecundity, and mating success were significantly different: on average, selection on mating success was stronger than on survival. Comparisons of estimated linear selection gradients and differentials suggest that indirect components of phenotypic selection were usually modest relative to direct components. The absolute values of quadratic selection gradients |gamma| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of only 0.10, suggesting that quadratic selection is typically quite weak. The distribution of gamma values was symmetric about 0, providing no evidence that stabilizing selection is stronger or more common than disruptive selection in nature.

Constraints on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity: limits and costs of phenotype and plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity is ubiquitous and generally regarded as a key mechanism for enabling organisms to survive in the face of environmental change. Because no organism is infinitely or ideally plastic, theory suggests that there must be limits (for example, the lack of ability to produce an optimal trait) to the evolution of phenotypic plasticity, or that plasticity may have inherent significant costs. Yet numerous experimental studies have not detected widespread costs. Explicitly differentiating plasticity costs from phenotype costs, we re-evaluate fundamental questions of the limits to the evolution of plasticity and of generalists vs specialists. We advocate for the view that relaxed selection and variable selection intensities are likely more important constraints to the evolution of plasticity than the costs of plasticity. Some forms of plasticity, such as learning, may be inherently costly. In addition, we examine opportunities to offset costs of phenotypes through ontogeny, amelioration of phenotypic costs across environments, and the condition-dependent hypothesis. We propose avenues of further inquiry in the limits of plasticity using new and classic methods of ecological parameterization, phylogenetics and omics in the context of answering questions on the constraints of plasticity. Given plasticity's key role in coping with environmental change, approaches spanning the spectrum from applied to basic will greatly enrich our understanding of the evolution of plasticity and resolve our understanding of limits.

Strength and tempo of directional selection in the wild

Directional selection is a major force driving adaptation and evolutionary change. However, the distribution, strength, and tempo of phenotypic selection acting on quantitative traits in natural populations remain unclear across different study systems. We reviewed the literature (1984-1997) that reported the strength of directional selection as indexed by standardized linear selection gradients (beta). We asked how strong are viability and sexual selection, and whether strength of selection is correlated with the time scale over which it was measured. Estimates of the magnitude of directional selection (absolute value of beta) were exponentially distributed, with few estimates greater than 0.50 and most estimates less than 0.15. Sexual selection (measured by mating success) appeared stronger than viability selection (measured by survival). Viability selection that was measured over short periods (days) was typically stronger than selection measured over longer periods (months and years), but the strength of sexual selection did not vary with duration of selection episodes; as a result, sexual selection was stronger than viability selection over longer time scales (months and years), but not over short time scales (days).

BIOPHYSICS, PHYSIOLOGICAL ECOLOGY, AND CLIMATE CHANGE: Does Mechanism Matter?

Recent meta-analyses have shown that the effects of climate change are detectable and significant in their magnitude, but these studies have emphasized the utility of looking for large-scale patterns without necessarily understanding the mechanisms underlying these changes. Using a series of case studies, we explore the potential pitfalls when one fails to incorporate aspects of physiological performance when predicting the consequences of climate change on biotic communities. We argue that by considering the mechanistic details of physiological performance within the context of biophysical ecology (engineering methods of heat, mass and momentum exchange applied to biological systems), such approaches will be better poised to predict where and when the impacts of climate change will most likely occur.

INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL SELECTION AS A CAUSE OF COPE'S RULE OF PHYLETIC SIZE INCREASE

Cope's rule, the tendency for species within a lineage to evolve towards larger body size, has been widely reported in the fossil record, but the mechanisms leading to such phyletic size increase remain unclear. Here we show that selection acting on individual organisms generally favors larger body size. We performed an analysis of the strength of directional selection on size compared with other quantitative traits by evaluating 854 selection estimates from 42 studies of contemporaneous natural populations. For size, more than 79% of selection estimates exceed zero, whereas for other morphological traits positive and negative values are similar in frequency. The selective advantage of increased size occurs for traits implicated in both natural selection (e.g., differences in survival) and sexual selection (e.g., differences in mating success). The predominance of positive directional selection on size within populations could translate into a macroevolutionary trend toward increased size and thereby explain Cope's rule.

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation-natural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.

Functional and Phylogenetic Approaches to Forecasting Species' Responses to Climate Change

Shifts in phenology and distribution in response to both recent and paleontological climate changes vary markedly in both direction and extent among species. These individualistic shifts are inconsistent with common forecasting techniques based on environmental rather than biological niches. What biological details could enhance forecasts? Organismal characteristics such as thermal and hydric limits, seasonal timing and duration of the life cycle, ecological breadth and dispersal capacity, and fitness and evolutionary potential are expected to influence climate change impacts. We review statistical and mechanistic approaches for incorporating traits in predictive models as well as the potential to use phylogeny as a proxy for traits. Traits generally account for a significant but modest fraction of the variation in phenological and range shifts. Further assembly of phenotypic and phylogenetic data coupled with the development of mechanistic approaches is essential to improved forecasts of the ecological consequences of climate change.

Path analyses of selection

Identifying the targets and causal mechanisms of phenotypic selection in natural populations remains an important challenge for evolutionary biologists. Path analysis is a statistical modeling approach that may aid in meeting this challenge. We describe several types of path model that are relevant to the analysis of selection, and review some recent empirical studies that apply path models to issues in pollination biology, phenotypic integration and selection on morphometric and ontogenetic traits. Path analysis may play two roles in the analysis of selection: first, as an exploratory analysis suggesting possible targets of selection, which are then tested by direct experimentation; and second, as a means of evaluating the relative importance of different causal pathways of selection, once the likely targets of selection have been established.

Variation in Continuous Reaction Norms: Quantifying Directions of Biological Interest

Thermal performance curves are an example of continuous reaction norm curves of common shape. Three modes of variation in these curves--vertical shift, horizontal shift, and generalist-specialist trade-offs--are of special interest to evolutionary biologists. Since two of these modes are nonlinear, traditional methods such as principal components analysis fail to decompose the variation into biological modes and to quantify the variation associated with each mode. Here we present the results of a new method, template mode of variation (TMV), that decomposes the variation into predetermined modes of variation for a particular set of thermal performance curves. We illustrate the method using data on thermal sensitivity of growth rate in Pieris rapae caterpillars. The TMV model explains 67% of the variation in thermal performance curves among families; generalist-specialist trade-offs account for 38% of the total between-family variation. The TMV method implemented here is applicable to both differences in mean and patterns of variation, and it can be used with either phenotypic or quantitative genetic data for thermal performance curves or other continuous reaction norms that have a template shape with a single maximum. The TMV approach may also apply to growth trajectories, age-specific life-history traits, and other function-valued traits.

Fluctuating temperatures and ectotherm growth: distinguishing non-linear and time-dependent effects

Most terrestrial ectotherms experience diurnal and seasonal variation in temperature. Because thermal performance curves are non-linear, mean performance can differ in fluctuating and constant thermal environments. However, time-dependent effects—effects of the order and duration of exposure to temperature—can also influence mean performance. We quantified the non-linear and time-dependent effects of diurnally fluctuating temperatures for larval growth rates in the Tobacco Hornworm, Manduca sexta L., with four main results. First, the shape of the thermal performance curve for growth rate depended on the duration of exposure: e.g. optimal temperature and thermal breadth were greater for growth rates measured over short (24h during the last instar) compared with long (the entire period of larval growth) time periods. Second, larvae reared in diurnally fluctuating temperatures had significantly higher optimal temperatures and maximal growth rates than larvae reared in constant temperatures. Third, we quantified mean growth rates for larvae maintained at three mean temperatures (20°C, 25°C, 30°C) and three diurnal temperature ranges (+0°C, +5°C, +10°C). Diurnal fluctuations had opposite effects on mean growth rates at low vs high mean temperature. Fourth, we used short-term and long-term thermal performance curves to predict the non-linear effects of fluctuating temperatures for mean growth rates, and compared these to our experimental results. Both short- and long-term curves yielded poor predictions of mean growth rate at higher mean temperatures with fluctuations. Our results suggest caution in using constant temperature studies to model the consequences of variable thermal environments.

Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Central ideas from thermal biology, including thermal performance curves and tolerances, have been widely used to evaluate how changes in environmental means and variances generate changes in fitness, selection and microevolution in response to climate change. We summarize the opportunities and challenges for extending this approach to understanding the consequences of extreme climatic events. Using statistical tools from extreme value theory, we show how distributions of thermal extremes vary with latitude, time scale and climate change. Second, we review how performance curves and tolerances have been used to predict the fitness and evolutionary responses to climate change and climate gradients. Performance curves and tolerances change with prior thermal history and with time scale, complicating their use for predicting responses to thermal extremes. Third, we describe several recent case studies showing how infrequent extreme events can have outsized effects on the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance. A key issue is whether thermal extremes affect reproduction or survival, and how these combine to determine overall fitness. We argue that a greater focus on tails-in the distribution of environmental extremes, and in the upper ends of performance curves-is needed to understand the consequences of extreme events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.