A new method for the analysis of cohort studies: implications of the multistage theory of carcinogenesis applied to occupational arsenic exposure

Implications of the multistage theory of carcinogenesis for evaluating the effect of exposure to carcinogens in the workplace are described. This theory predicts different patterns of excess risk related to duration of exposure, age at initial exposure, and follow-up time since exposure stopped, depending upon which stage of the carcinogenic process is affected by the carcinogen, i.e., action at an early stage or a late stage. New statistical methodologies are proposed to examine these patterns and are applied to the lung cancer mortality experience from a cohort study of smelter workers exposed to arsenic. Under this multistage hypothesis, the results indicate that arsenic exerts a definite late stage effect though an additional effect at the initial stage cannot be ruled out. The possibilities of biased conclusions resulting from incomplete exposure histories and lack of smoking information are also discussed as well as implications of these results to experimental animal studies.

Implications of the multistage theory of carcinogenesis applied to occupational arsenic exposure

The multistage theory of carcinogenesis and its implications for evaluating the effect of exposure to carcinogens in the workplace are described. This theory predicts different relationships between excess carcinogenic risk and duration of exposure, age at initial exposure, and follow-up time since exposure stopped. These relationships are shown to depend on the stage of the carcinogenic process affected by the carcinogen, i.e., action at an early stage or a later stage. The patterns of excess lung cancer mortality were examined for a cohort of copper smelter workers exposed to atmospheric arsenic and other contaminants. Under this multistage hypothesis, the results indicate that arsenic appears to exert a definite effect on a late stage of the carcinogenic process, although an additional effect at the initial stage cannot be conclusively ruled out. Other factors, such as exposure to sulfur dioxide in the environment, calendar year at start of employment, and the potential bias resulting from incomplete exposure histories are also discussed as well as the implications of these results to experimental animal studies.

Coxsackievirus B4 nephritis in the squirrel monkey

Seventeen squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) were experimentally infected with Coxsackievirus B4, and the kidneys, as well as other organs, were studied for pathological changes induced by the virus. Seven (41%) of these monkeys developed renal lesions--interstitial and glomerular. The Coxsackievirus was identified in 4 of these 7 monkeys (by isolation from the renal tissue in 2, by immunofluorescence staining of viral antigen in 1, and by electron microscopic finding of viral particles in 1). The renal lesions produced by Coxsackieviral infection described in this report resemble those seen in renal disease in man. These findings support the concept that viruses can produce glomerular and interstitial renal disease. This report also describes a good animal model for the study of viral disease of the kidney.

Experimental viral arthritis

An early, acute arthritis was observed in 8 of 22 mice experimentally infected with respiratory syncytial virus. No abnormalities were found in the joints of the 12 control mice. The pathological changes in joints of the infected animals included pannus formation and erosion, resembling changes that occur in arthritis in man, including rheumatoid arthritis. It is proposed, therefore, that viruses may play an aetiological role in acute and chronic arthritis in man. These investigations provide a model for studying pathology of arthritis in mice produced by a virus which also infects man.

Review of experimental carcinogenesis by compounds related to vinyl chloride

The experimental carcinogenesis results in six compounds related to vinyl chloride are reported. Vinylidene chloride, given by inhalation, was carcinogenic in male CD-1 mice, male CD rats, Sprague-Dawley rats and male Swiss mice. Trichloroethylene, given by gavage and inhalation, was carcinogenic in the B6C3F1 mice. When given by gavage, perchloroethylene was carcinogenic in the B6C3F1 mice, and dichloroethane was carcinogenic in Osborne-Mendel rats and B6C3F1 mice. Dibromoethane, given by gavage and inhalation, was carcinogenic in B6C3F1 mice, F344 rats and Osborne-Mendel rats. Finally, epichlorohydrin was carcinogenic in male Sprague-Dawley rats and B6C3F1 mice.

Factors in the evaluation of 200 National Cancer Institute carcinogen bioassays

In determining the carcinogenicity of chemical tested in a National Cancer Institute (NCI) bioassay, the following criteria are considered: (1) the adequacy of the bioassay data, (2) the presence of significantly increased incidences of tumor, (3) the adequacy of the number of animals at risk of developing tumors, (4) the adequacy of the dose of chemical administered, (5) the etiology and pathogenesis of the lesions, and (6) other factors that may influence an evaluation, such as a shortened latency period for tumor formation in dosed animals or the stability of the chemical. A decision tree for evaluating these factors is presented. A summary of the results of 200 NCl carcinogen bioassays is also reported. These procedures are presented in the hope that they may serve as discussion points for future developments in the field.

Variability in the rates of some common naturally occurring tumors in Fischer 344 rats and (C57BL/6N x C3H/HeN)F1 (B6C3F1) mice

Variability inthe incidence rates of some common naturally occurring tumors for 72 inbred F344 rat and 54 (C57BL/6N x C3H/HeN)F1 (B6C3F1) mouse control groups used in carcinogenesis bioassays was evaluated. Significant heterogeneity of control rates was observed in at least two of six laboratories for lymphomas-leukemias, liver tumors, and pituitary tumors in the male rat and for pituitary tumors and endometrial stromal polyps in the female rat. Significant interlaboratory heterogeneity was observed for several tumor types in the F344 rat. In contrast, control incidence rates for tumors of the lung and liver and lymphomas-leukemias in B6C3F1 mice were relatively homogeneous within four of five laboratories. Significant interlaboratory heterogeneity was observed, however, for these mouse tumors. The causes of significant heterogeneity in naturally occurring tumor incidence rates within and among laboratories are unknown. Although the most appropriate and important comparison of an experimental group is with its matched control, there may be instances in which the historical control rates provide relevant data needed to clearly interpret carcinogenesis bioassay results. With the use of data from bioassays of 4-chloro-m-phenylenediamine and nitrilotriacetic acid, two examples are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the historical control data.

Evaluating statistical analyses and reproducibility of microbial mutagenicity assays

The NCI/NTP has completed the first phase of a 4-laboratory study on the reproducibility of testing chemicals for mutagenicity in the Salmonella/microsome assay. This paper is a report of the statistical analysis of some of that data. This analysis involved (1) identifying and removing spurious data; (2) determining the adequacy of the remaining data in making a decision on the mutagenicity of the test chemical; (3) performing the statistical tests; and (4) interpreting the results. Using this procedure, 7 approaches were used to determine the mutagenicity of a test. These approaches were the (1) 2-fold rule, (20 modified 2-fold rule, (3) one-way analysis of variance (homogeneity test), (4) test for linear trend, (5) combination of 3 and 4, (6) 97.5th percentile threshold rule and (7) confidence interval threshold rule. The conclusions drawn by each rule were compared to the microbiologists' interpretation, and the results of these comparisons were presented. In addition, the strengths and weakness of each rule were discussed. The reproducibility of the assay in this study was examined, and a discussion of the significance of these results was presented.

Neoplastic and nonneoplastic lesions in aging (C57BL/6N x C3H/HeN)F1 (B6C3F1) mice

Neoplastic and nonneoplastic lesions in untreated (C57BL/6N x C3H/HeN)F1 (B6C3F1) mice used as controls in carcinogenesis tests were tabulated and evaluated. The most common neoplasms in 2,543 male mice were hepatocellular adenomas and carcinomas. In 2,522 female mice, common tumors were lymphomas, leukemias, pulmonary adenomas and carcinomas, hepatocellular adenomas and carcinomas, and pituitary adenomas. The risk of developing most neoplasms increased with the age of the mouse. Hepatocellular carcinomas metastasized in 12% of the animals with these tumors. Other than lymphomas and leukemias, few other tumors metastasized. Nonneoplastic lesions included cystic hyperplasia of the uterus, nephritis, ovarian and uterine cysts, inflammatory lesions of the lung, mineralization in the brain, and focal hyperplasias in several tissues. The focal hyperplasias in lung and pituitary, adrenal, and thyroid glands were suggestive of the early stages of neoplasia. Comparative aspects of lesions in aging mice and their interpretation in carcinogenesis tests are discussed.

Statistical issues in interpretation of chronic bioassay tests for carcinogenicity

The interpretation of chronic bioassay tests for carcinogenicity requires that the data be appropriately recorded. A "case history" for each animal links the pathology data for each organ of each animal to the length of its life. This information can be used in interpretation of the tumor incidences in light of the survival information. The role of historical controls was discussed, and the use of significance tests in a multidisciplinary approach to the assessment of the pattern of tumor response was suggested. Multiple comparison methods valid for the interpretation of continuous (or measurement) data do not apply to the discrete data analyses used in these studies. The ideas and methods of these studies were applied to an animal study of chloroform.

Testing of twenty-one environmental aromatic amines or derivatives for long-term toxicity or carcinogenicity

Twenty-one aromatic amines or derivatives were tested for long-term toxicity by dietary administration to male Charles River rats and male and female HaM/lCR mice. 2,4-Toluenediamine, o-phenylenediamine, o-toluidine, 2,4,6-trimethylaniline, 2,4,5-trimethylaniline, 2,5-xylidine, and 1-chloro-2-nitrobenzene led to tumors in one or more tissues in all three of these animal models. p-Toluidine, 4-chloro-o-toluidine and 1-chloro-4-nitrobenzene had varying degrees of activity, but in male and female mice only. 4-Chloro-4'-aminodiphenyl ether affected male rats and female mice, but there was no consistent dose response. 2,5-Dimethoxy-4'-aminostilbene led to many tumors in male rats but had only a questionable action in male mice. The effect of 3,3',4,4'tetra-aminobiphenyl in male rats was borderline; in the mice only males showed any response. In male mice 2,4,6-trichloroaniline had a fair degree of activity; tetrafluoro-m-phenylenediamine was somewhat less effective and m-toluidine had only questionable activity. 2,4-Xylidine increased lung tumors in female mice at the higher dose only. Four inactive compounds included m-phenyl-enediamine, 2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene, benzoguanamine, and dicyclopentadiene dioxide. 2,4,6-Trimethylaniline led to cirrhosis of the liver in rats only.

Pancreatic carcinogenesis and naturally occurring pancreatic neoplasms of rats and mice in the NCI carcinogenesis testing program

Over two hundred chemicals were examined in a two year rodent bioassay system for possible carcinogenicity. Of these, only nitrofen significantly increased the incidence of neoplasms of the exocrine pancreas of rats or mice (female Osborne-Mendel rats); azinphosmethyl was the only agent tested which significantly increased the incidence of islet-cell tumors of rats or mice (male Osborne-Mendel rats). The use of the rat (Osborne-Mendel or Fischer 344) and mouse (B6C3F1) as models for the detection of chemically-induced pancreatic neoplasms also was investigated. The incidences of specific neoplasms of the exocrine or endocrine pancreas produced by all chemicals tested were combined and compared with the combined incidences of similar neoplasms in control animals in order to increase the sensitivity of the test. The data obtained through this procedure suggests that the male rat may be a good, sensitive model for the detection of islet-cell tumors.

False-positive and false-negative rates for carcinogenicity screens

The implementation of a number of chemical carcinogen screening programs has been accompanied by the observation that some screens might have high false-positive error rates. With designs presently used at the National Cancer Institute and historical spontaneous tumor rates based upon control animals in previous experiments, we compute upper bounds on the false-positive error rates for several screening strategies. False-positive results are much less likely to occur at tissue sites with low spontaneous tumor rates; hence the site at which a significant tumor increase occurs is important. There is danger in relying solely upon the finding of statistical significance without incorporating biological knowledge and corroborative evidence such as the presence of a dose-response relationship or experimentally consistent results in different species or sexes. A report by the National Cancer Institute Carcinogenesis Program demonstrates these concepts.

Pattern recognitiion and structure-activity relationship studies. Computer-assisted prediction of antitumor activity in structurally diverse drugs in an experimental mouse brain tumor system

This paper reports the application of pattern recognition and substructural analysis to the problem of predicting the antineoplastic activity of 24 test compounds in an experimental mouse brain tumor system based on 138 structurally diverse compounds tested in this tumor system. The molecules were represented by three types of substructural fragments, the augmented atom, the heteropath, and the ring fragments. Of the two pattern recognition methods used to predict the activity of the test compounds the nearest neighbor method predicted 83% correctly while the learning machine method predicted 92% correctly. The test structures and the important substructural fragments used in this study are given and the implications of these results are discussed.

Mycoplasma gallisepticum infection in mice and cynomolgus monkeys. A histologic, immunofluorescence, and electron microscopic study of the heart

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Coxsackie virus B4 pancarditis in cynomolgus monkeys resembling rheumatic heart lesions

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Hypothalamic obesity in weanling rats

Bilateral hypothalamic lesions were placed in the ventromedial nuclei of 15 male weanling rats. Nine male littermates were used as controls. Food intake, body weight, and nose-occipital (N-O) length were followed for 90 days. Rats were killed on the 90th postoperative day and stomach weight, body fat content, and femur length were then measured. Although the daily food intake and the rate of body weight gain of the rats with lesions were comparable to those of their controls, all 15 operated rats became obese and their N-O and femur lengths were significantly shorter. It is concluded that hypothalamic obesity of weanling rats is associated with growth impairment.