Prediction of long-term outcomes by signal-averaged electrocardiography in patients with unsustained ventricular tachycardia, coronary artery disease, and left ventricular dysfunction

BACKGROUND

An abnormal signal-averaged ECG (SAECG) is a noninvasive marker of the substrate of sustained ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction. We assessed its prognostic ability in patients with asymptomatic unsustained ventricular tachycardia, coronary artery disease, and left ventricular dysfunction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A blinded core laboratory analyzed SAECG tracings from 1925 patients in a multicenter trial. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to examine individual and joint relations between SAECG variables and arrhythmic death or cardiac arrest (primary end point), cardiac death, and total mortality. We also assessed the prognostic utility of SAECG at different levels of ejection fraction (EF). A filtered QRS duration >114 ms (abnormal SAECG) independently predicted the primary end point and cardiac death, independent of clinical variables, cardioverter-defibrillator implantation, and antiarrhythmic drug therapy. With an abnormal SAECG, the 5-year rates of the primary end point (28% versus 17%, P=0.0001), cardiac death (37% versus 25%, P=0.0001), and total mortality (43% versus 35%, P=0.0001) were significantly higher. The combination of EF <30% and abnormal SAECG identified a particularly high-risk subset that constituted 21% of the total population. Thirty-six percent and 44% of patients with this combination succumbed to arrhythmic and cardiac death, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SAECG is a powerful predictor of poor outcomes in this population. The noninvasive combination of an abnormal SAECG and reduced EF may have utility in selecting high-risk patients for intervention.

P wave polarity during pacing in pulmonary veins

INTRODUCTION

Recent studies have demonstrated that premature depolarizations that trigger atrial fibrillation often arise in pulmonary veins. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether P wave polarity is helpful in distinguishing which of the 4 pulmonary veins is the site of origin of a premature depolarization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 28 patients without structural heart disease who underwent focal ablation of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, P wave polarity on a 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) was analyzed during sinus rhythm, and during pacing at a cycle length of 500--600 ms in the high right atrium and within each of the 4 pulmonary veins. P waves were categorized as positive, negative, biphasic or isoelectric. A negative or biphasic P wave in lead I (sensitivity 85 %, specificity 71 %) or a positive P wave in V1 (sensitivity 85 %, specificity 89 %) were helpful in predicting a pulmonary venous site of origin as opposed to a right atrial site of origin. A positive P wave in lead II and III distinguished superior from inferior pulmonary veins (sensitivity 90 %, specificity 84 %). The sensitivity and specificity of negative or biphasic P waves in lead aVL in distinguishing a left from right pulmonary vein site of origin were 94 % and 42 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of P waves polarity may be helpful in localizing the pulmonary vein that is the site of origin of a premature depolarization. Among the 12 ECG leads, I, II, III, aVL, and V1 are the most helpful in regionalizing premature depolarizations arising in the pulmonary veins.

Hepatopulmonary syndrome in poorly compensated postnecrotic liver cirrhosis by hepatitis B virus in Korea

BACKGROUND

Hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) refers to the association of hypoxemia, intrapulmonary shunting and chronic liver disease. But there is no clear data about the prevalence of HPS in postnecrotic liver cirrhosis by hepatitis B virus (HBV), the most common cause of liver disease in Korea. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of HPS in poorly compensated postnecrotic liver cirrhosis by HBV, and the correlation of the hepatopulmonary syndrome with clinical aspects of postnecrotic liver cirrhosis by HBV.

METHODS

Thirty-five patients underwent pulmonary function test, arterial blood gas analysis and contrast-enhanced echocardiography. All patients were diagnosed as HBV-induced Child class C liver cirrhosis and had no evidence of intrinsic cardiopulmonary disease.

RESULTS

Intrapulmonary shunt was detected in 6/35 (17.1%) by contrast-enhanced echocardiography. Two of six patients with intrahepatic shunts had significant hypoxemia (PaO2 < 70 mmHg) and four showed increased alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient over 20 mmHg. Only cyanosis could reliably distinguish between shunt positive and negative patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of intrapulmonary shunt in poorly compensated postnecrotic liver cirrhosis by HBV was 17.1% and the frequency of hepatopulmonary syndrome was relatively low (5.7%). 'Subclinical' hepatopulmonary syndrome (echocardiographically positive intrapulmonary shunt but without profound hypoxemia) exists in 11.4% of cases with poorly compensated postnecrotic liver cirrhosis by HBV. Cyanosis is the only reliable clinical indicator of HPS of HBV-induced poorly compensated liver cirrhosis. Further studies are required to determine if the prevalence and clinical manifestations of HPS varies with etiology or with geographical and racial differences.

Reversible impairment of left and right ventricular systolic and diastolic function during short-lasting atrial fibrillation in patients with an implantable atrial defibrillator: a tissue Doppler imaging study

AF with a fast ventricular response may cause ventricular mechanical impairment, though whether short-lasting AF with satisfactory rate control may affect ventricular function is unknown. This study investigated if prompt cardioversion by an implantable atrial defibrillator (IAD) may prevent left (LV) and right ventricular (RV) systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Ten patients (mean age 61 +/- 9 years, 8 men) with paroxysmal AF without structural heart disease who received an IAD were studied by echocardiography and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) for both ventricles. Measurements were made during baseline sinus rhythm and at 1-minute, 20-minute, 4-hour, and 1-week postcardioversion of an episode of spontaneous AF. The occurrence of AF and the ventricular rate were monitored at 2-hour intervals by the device. There were 50 episodes of AF with a mean duration of 8.8 +/- 8.9 days (2 hours to 37 days). There was no difference in M-mode measured LV fractional shortening and ejection fraction between baseline sinus rhythm and after cardioversion. However, the TDI derived myocardial systolic velocity (TDI-S) was significantly lower at 1-minute postcardioversion and was normalized at 1 week in both LVs (baseline: 5.7 +/- 1.8, 1 minute: 4.2 +/- 1.0, 20 minutes: 4.3 +/- 0.9, 4 hours: 4.8 +/- 1.0, 1 week: 5.5 +/- 1.8 cm/s; P < 0.005 when comparing 1 minute and 20 minutes to baseline; P < 0.05 when comparing 4 hour to baseline) and RV (baseline: 10.4 +/- 2.1, 1 minute: 7.8 +/- 1.4, 20 minutes: 8.1 +/- 1.2, 4 hours: 9.2 +/- 1.5, 1 week: 10.0 +/- 2.0 cm/s; P < 0.005 when comparing 1 minute, 20 minutes, and 4 hours to baseline). For diastolic function, transmitral Doppler study showed a decrease in early filling velocity at 1 minute (P < 0.05) and 20 minutes (P < 0.005), which was normalized at 4 hours. There was no change in transtricuspid Doppler flow. However, TDI derived myocardial early filling velocity was decreased in the LV (baseline: 6.0 +/- 2.8, 1 minute: 5.4 +/- 2.3, 20 minutes: 5.4 +/- 2.1, 4 hours: 6.1 +/- 2.2, 1 week: 5.8 +/- 1.7 cm/s; P < 0.05 when comparing 1 minute and 20 minutes to baseline) and RV (baseline: 8.9 +/- 3.5, 1 minute: 7.9 +/- 3.3, 20 minutes: 8.1 +/- 3.3, 4 hours: 8.5 +/- 2.9, 1 week: 8.4 +/- 3.5 cm/s; P < 0.05 when comparing 1 minute to baseline). AF of a longer duration (> 48 hours) resulted in a more depressed TDI-S in LV (> 48 hours: 4.2 +/- 1.0, < or = 48 hours: 5.3 +/- 1.3 cm/s; P < 0.01). Shocks in sinus rhythm did not affect any of the above echocardiographic parameters. Therefore, despite adequate rate control, short-lasting AF impairs systolic and diastolic function in both ventricles, which improves gradually after cardioversion. Early restoration of sinus rhythm by an IAD minimizes ventricular dysfunction. TDI is a sensitive tool to assess early systolic and diastolic dysfunction.

Dietary trial in prostate cancer: Early experience and implications for clinical trial design

Much epidemiologic and case-controlled evidence suggests that diet may be a modifier of prostate cancer risk. However, the role of dietary modification in men known to have prostate cancer is a matter of some debate. To elucidate the effect of diet and comprehensive lifestyle changes on cancer risk, we are conducting a randomized, prospective clinical trial on men with clinically localized prostate cancer who have selected "watchful waiting" as primary therapy. Since its inception in April 1997, 93 men have been randomized to control (n = 47) or dietary and lifestyle intervention (n = 46). Patients in the intervention group are asked to eat a low-fat, soy-supplemented vegan diet and take part in stress management, psychosocial group support, and exercise programs. After 1 year, adherence to all four interventions was greater than 80%, and no deaths or adverse outcomes have occurred. To date, we have collected prostate-specific antigen and endorectal magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy data on 63 patients (34 control and 29 intervention). This study demonstrates that a randomized, prospective dietary trial for men with localized prostate cancer is safe and feasible. The methodologies used provide insights into practical aspects of diet design and compliance assessment that may be useful templates for future dietary trials.

Electrophysiologic and clinical effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in patients with prior myocardial infarction, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, and depressed left ventricular function. MUSTT Investigators. Multicenter UnSustained Tachycardia Trial

Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors have been shown to reduce sudden cardiac death and all-cause mortality. They also may have direct antiarrhythmic properties. We retrospectively analyzed the data from the Multicenter UnSustained Tachycardia Trial (MUSTT), to determine the effects of ACE inhibitors on inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia and on sudden cardiac death and overall mortality in 2,087 patients with prior myocardial infarction, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, and depressed left ventricular function. Results of electrophysiologic testing were compared by use of ACE inhibitors at baseline, and outcomes were compared between the 564 patients prescribed ACE inhibitors at discharge and the 1,523 patients who did not receive treatment. The inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia during electrophysiologic testing did not differ by baseline ACE inhibitor use (unadjusted p = 0.75). Patients discharged from hospital on ACE inhibitors had a lower ejection fraction, more extensive coronary artery disease, and fewer previous revascularizations at baseline. After adjustments for differences in baseline factors and initial hospitalization variables, there were no significant differences in total mortality (p = 0.47) or arrhythmic death or cardiac arrest (p = 0.51) with ACE inhibitor use at discharge over a median 43 months of follow-up.

Initial clinical experience with a new self-retaining left ventricular lead for permanent left ventricular pacing

This study evaluated the performance of a new lead for permanent left ventricular (LV) pacing via the coronary sinus (CS) in four men and nine women (mean age = 71 +/- 13 years) with sick sinus syndrome. It consists of a 75-cm-long, 4.8-Fr, unipolar ventricular lead with a distal portion preshaped in an S curve to provide steerability and stability within the CS. Its efficacy and stability for permanent LV pacing were tested at implant, predischarge, and at 1, 3 and 6 months of follow-up. The lead was successfully implanted in 11/13 patients (85%) within a mean fluoroscopy time of 35 +/- 22 minutes. The final positions of the electrodes at the tip of the lead within venous tributaries of the CS were: (1) anterior (n = 2, 18%); (2) posterolateral (n = 5, 45%); and (3) the lateral (n = 4, 36%). Unsuccessful implants were due to unstable lead position (n = 1), or high pacing threshold (n = 1). There was no postprocedural lead dislodgment or significant changes in the R wave amplitude, LV pacing threshold and lead impedance up to 6 months of follow-up. In summary, this initial experience suggests that this new lead offers safe and reliable permanent LV pacing via the CS in the majority of patients and may be used in isolation or in conjunction with right ventricular pacing for biventricular synchronization.

Efficacy and tolerability of continuous overdrive atrial pacing in atrial fibrillation

Overdrive right atrial pacing has been used to prevent atrial fibrillation, but its efficacy in atrial fibrillation prevention and the patient tolerability and quality of life during high rate pacing remain uncertain. The objective of this study was to test the effects of a consistent atrial pacing algorithm that automatically paced the atrium at 30 ms shorter than the sinus P-P interval for atrial fibrillation prevention. Fifteen patients with sick sinus syndrome implanted with a Thera DR (model 7940 or 7960, Medtronic Inc.) were randomly programmed to rate adaptive dual chamber pacing (DDDR) or DDDR + consistent atrial pacing mode, each for an 8-week study period. The efficacy of consistent atrial pacing was assessed by the number of automatic mode switching and the number of premature atrial complexes. Symptoms and quality of life were assessed by the SF-36 quality of life questionnaire and an atrial fibrillation symptom checklist. The percentage of atrial pacing increased from 57 +/- 32% to 86 +/- 28%. Overall, there was no significant difference in the number of automatic mode switching episodes between DDDR and DDDR + consistent atrial pacing (47 +/- 90 vs 42 +/- 87, P > 0.05), but a significant reduction in premature atrial complexes by 74.7% (P < 0.001). There was no undue increase in atrial rate by the DDDR + consistent atrial pacing mode versus DDDR (63 +/- 13 vs 70 +/- 7 bpm). There was no significant difference in quality of life scores and symptom severity on frequency between the two modes of pacing, but a trend towards a lower frequency of symptoms in the DDDR + consistent atrial pacing mode compared with baseline (29.5 +/- 10.2 vs 25.1 +/- 9.7, P = 0.07). An algorithm that provides consistent atrial overdrive pacing can suppress atrial fibrillation triggering premature atrial complexes without the need to increase the overall atrial rate compared with conventional pacing. The algorithm appears to be well-tolerated, but further studies are needed to address the clinical impact of this atrial fibrillation prevention algorithm.

A convenient method for the synthesis of DNA-recognizing polyamides in solution

A convenient method for the synthesis of polyamides containing N-methylpyrrole (Py) and N-methylimidazole (Im) in solution has been developed. Most of the building blocks have been prepared by a haloform reaction in a simple way that column chromatography can be avoided. By use of the DCC/HOBT coupling reaction, the building blocks prepared have been effectively connected to construct a variety of subchains and polyamides without employing amino protection and deprotection. By use of the present method, an eight-ring polyamide, PyPyPyPygammaPyImImPybetaDp (gamma is gamma-aminobutyric acid, beta is beta-alanine, Dp is N, N-dimethylpropyldiamine), has been synthesized by the coupling of two four-ring subchains in one step.

Effects of biatrial pacing in prevention of postoperative atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass surgery

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common after coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) and results in prolonged hospitalization. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of biatrial pacing in preventing post-CABG AF compared with single-site atrial pacing.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 132 patients who had no history of AF and who underwent CABG were randomized to 1 of the following 4 groups: biatrial pacing (BiA), left atrial pacing (LA), right atrial pacing (RA), or no pacing (control) in postoperative period. Overdrive atrial pacing was performed for 5 days. The incidence of AF was significantly reduced in the BiA group (12.5%) compared with the other 3 groups (LA, 36.4%; RA, 33.3%; control, 41. 9%; P<0.05). The mean length of hospital stay was significantly reduced in the BiA group. At baseline, the mean P-wave duration (P(dur)) and dispersion (P(dis)) were not prolonged. BiA pacing resulted in the most significant percentage of reduction in P(dis) when compared with the LA or RA groups (BiA, 42+/-8%; LA, 13+/-6%; RA, 10+/-9%; P<0.05 for BiA versus LA or RA). No significant differences existed in mean P(dur) and P(dis) between patients who developed AF and those who remained in sinus rhythm at baseline. However, only those patients who remained in sinus rhythm had a significant reduction in mean P(dur) and P(dis) after pacing therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Biatrial overdrive pacing is more effective in preventing post-CABG AF than single-site atrial pacing; this therapy also results in a shortened hospital stay. The overall reduction in atrial activation time with BiA pacing was reflected in the reduction in P(dis).

Prevention of ventricular fibrillation by pacing in a man with Brugada syndrome

The unique ECG appearance of Brugada syndrome is caused by failure of the dome of the action potential to develop. It occurs when the outward currents (mainly Ito) overwhelm the inward currents (mainly Ica) at the end of phase 1 of the action potential. Because Ito becomes less prominent at a faster rate, increased heart rate is associated with decreased ST segment elevation on ECG and probably decreased incidence of ventricular arrhythmia. We present the first report on prevention of ventricular fibrillation in a man with Brugada syndrome by overdrive pacing from his dual chamber implantable cardioverter defibrillator.

Electrophysiologic testing to identify patients with coronary artery disease who are at risk for sudden death. Multicenter Unsustained Tachycardia Trial Investigators

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate among patients with coronary artery disease, abnormal ventricular function, and unsustained ventricular tachycardia is high. The usefulness of electrophysiologic testing for risk stratification in these patients is unclear.

METHODS

We performed electrophysiologic testing in patients who had coronary artery disease, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40 percent or less, and asymptomatic, unsustained ventricular tachycardia. Patients in whom sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmias could be induced were randomly assigned to receive either antiarrhythmic therapy guided by electrophysiologic testing or no antiarrhythmic therapy. The primary end point was cardiac arrest or death from arrhythmia. Patients without inducible tachyarrhythmias were followed in a registry. We compared the outcomes of 1397 patients in the registry with those of 353 patients with inducible tachyarrhythmias who were randomly assigned to receive no antiarrhythmic therapy in order to assess the prognostic value of electrophysiologic testing.

RESULTS

Patients were followed for a median of 39 months. In a Kaplan-Meier analysis, two-year and five-year rates of cardiac arrest or death due to arrhythmia were 12 and 24 percent, respectively, among the patients in the registry, as compared with 18 and 32 percent among the patients with inducible tachyarrhythmias who were assigned to no antiarrhythmic therapy (adjusted P<0.001). Overall mortality after five years was 48 percent among the patients with inducible tachyarrhythmias, as compared with 44 percent among the patients in the registry (adjusted P=0.005). Deaths among patients without inducible tachyarrhythmias were less likely to be classified as due to arrhythmia than those among patients with inducible tachyarrhythmias (45 and 54 percent, respectively; P=0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with coronary artery disease, left ventricular dysfunction, and asymptomatic, unsustained ventricular tachycardia in whom sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmias cannot be induced have a significantly lower risk of sudden death or cardiac arrest and lower overall mortality than similar patients with inducible sustained tachyarrhythmias.

Predictors of outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation. Results from an international trial of 9461 patients. The PURSUIT Investigators

BACKGROUND

Appropriate treatment policies should include an accurate estimate of a patient's baseline risk. Risk modeling to date has been underutilized in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed the relation between baseline characteristics and the 30-day incidence of death and the composite of death or myocardial (re)infarction in 9461 patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation enrolled in the PURSUIT trial [Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (eptifibatide) Therapy]. Variables examined included demographics, history, hemodynamic condition, and symptom duration. Risk models were created with multivariable logistic regression and validated by bootstrapping techniques. There was a 3.6% mortality rate and 11.4% infarction rate by 30 days. More than 20 significant predictors for mortality and for the composite end point were identified. The most important baseline determinants of death were age (adjusted chi(2)=95), heart rate (chi(2)=32), systolic blood pressure (chi(2)=20), ST-segment depression (chi(2)=20), signs of heart failure (chi(2)=18), and cardiac enzymes (chi(2)=15). Determinants of mortality were generally also predictive of death or myocardial (re)infarction. Differences were observed, however, in the relative prognostic importance of predictive variables for mortality alone or the composite end point; for example, sex was a more important determinant of the composite end point (chi(2)=21) than of death alone (chi(2)=10). The accuracy of the prediction of the composite end point was less than that of mortality (C-index 0.67 versus 0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of adverse events after presentation with acute coronary syndromes is affected by multiple factors. These factors should be considered in the clinical decision-making process.

[A study on the size, location and medical function of the Jaedong Jejoongwon]

This is the study of Jaedong Jejoongwon, the first westernized hospital in Korea founded in 1885. To build the groundwork for study of Jejoongwon, its size, location, building structure, and medical functions were studied. At the same time, the history of Jejoongwon, particularly that of the time when there arose a need for its moving and expansion, was studied. Jaedong Jejoongwon was founded in a renovated building. The building was formerly owned by Hong Young-sik, who was killed while leading the Gapsinjungbyun. According to the existing block plan of Jaedong Jejoongwon, when it was opened in 1885, it was located in the place which later became a park. Nowadays this park is to northwest of the Constitutional Court. At that time, its size was about 600 p'yung. As the medical school was built, from end of 1885 to early 1886, Jejoongwon was expanded to north, and its size was enlarged to 862.16 p'yung. Jaedong Jejoongwon reflected the characteristics of western medical system. When it was opened in 1885, Jejoongwon consisted of a servants' room, an assistants' room, the outpatient clinic, the operation room (which was also used as the pharmacy), surgical wards, women's wards, and general wards. In 1886, as the number of patients was increased and medical school was opened, the function and the structure of hospital changed. The most significant change was that a new medical school building was built, as the nearby buildings were brought. The medical school consisted of the students' dormitory, a chemistry laboratory, and classrooms. Moreover, new functions were added to already-existed hospital building : a contagious ward, a waiting room for outpatients, an eye ward, a darkroom, a room for special diagnosis and treatment, and a vaccination room. Also, from the time when it was first opened, Jejoongwon needed the expansion, as too many patients came in and the medical education was started. Therefore, in the summer of 1886, Allen positively explored ways toward the hospital's moving. At last, in early 1887, Jaedong Jejoongwon moved to Kurigae on along with the development of medical education and medical treatment, shows how the modern medical system was formed and developed in Korea.

Detection of microcalcifications using spatial filtering

This paper studied the feasibility of applying a spatial filter, called the iris filter, in microcalcification detection. While a majority of techniques manipulate data in the transform space, this spatial filter was chosen in an attempt to reduce computation. The iris filter has the ability to differentiate between circular and line-like objects. It computes the convergence of nearby gradient vectors relative to the centre of the filter. However, as the results of this paper show, the decrease in the constraint factor, which is an inner limit of the support region of the filter, also leads to a decrease in the detection ability of the filter. Hence, this filter is not ideal for detection of microcalcifications.

A new bacterial white spot syndrome (BWSS) in cultured tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon and its comparison with white spot syndrome (WSS) caused by virus

This paper describes a new bacterial white spot syndrome (BWSS) in cultured tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon. The affected shrimp showed white spots similar to those caused by white spot syndrome virus (WSSV), but the shrimp remained active and grew normally without significant mortalities. The study revealed no evidence of WSSV infection using electron microscopy, histopathology and nested polymerase chain reaction. Electron microscopy indicated bacteria associated with white spot formation, and with degeneration and discoloration of the cuticle as a result of erosion of the epicuticle and underlying cuticular layers. Grossly the white spots in BWSS and WSS look similar but showed different profiles under wet mount microscopy. The bacterial white spots were lichen-like, having perforated centers unlike the melanized dots in WSSV-induced white spots. Bacteriological examination showed that the dominant isolate in the lesions was Bacillus subtilis. The occurrence of BWSS may be associated with the regular use of probiotics containing B. subtilis in shrimp ponds. The externally induced white spot lesions were localized at the integumental tissues, i.e., cuticle and epidermis, and connective tissues. Damage to the deeper tissues was limited. The BWS lesions are non-fatal in the absence of other complications and are usually shed through molting.

Prediction of 1-year survival after thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction in the global utilization of streptokinase and TPA for occluded coronary arteries trial

BACKGROUND

When a patient survives thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction, little information from large studies exists from which to estimate prognosis during follow-up visits.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Baseline, in-hospital, and later survival data were collected from 41 021 patients enrolled in Global Utilization of Streptokinase and TPA for Occluded Coronary Arteries, a randomized trial of 4 thrombolytic-heparin regimens with standard aspirin and beta-blockade. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 1-year survival in 30-day survivors (n=37 869) from baseline clinical and ECG factors and in-hospital factors; a combined model then was developed (C-index 0.800). The model was simplified into a nomogram to predict individual outcomes (C-index 0.754). Factors reflecting demographics (advanced age, lighter weight), larger infarctions (higher Killip class, lower blood pressure, faster heart rate, longer QRS duration), cardiac risk (smoking, hypertension, prior cerebrovascular disease), and arrhythmia were important predictors of death between 30 days and 1 year. Black race was associated with a substantial increase in risk after considering other factors. Revascularization was associated with reduced risk between 30 days and 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

When evaluating a patient who has survived acute infarction treated with thrombolysis, clinicians can estimate the likelihood of survival from factors easily measured during admission. Although many risk factors clearly relate to age, left ventricular dysfunction, or clinical instability, black race is an unexplained risk factor requiring further examination.

Clinical trials in acute myocardial infarction: should we adjust for baseline characteristics?

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials concerning acute myocardial infarction often evaluate short-term death. Several baseline characteristics are predictors of death, most notably age. Adjustment for one or more predictors in a multivariable analysis may be considered to correct the estimate of the treatment effect for any imbalance that by chance may have occurred between the randomized groups. Moreover, adjustment results in a stratified estimate of the effect of treatment.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The effects of adjustment (correction for imbalance and stratification) were studied with logistic regression analysis in the Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO)-I trial. The primary end point was 30-day death, which occurred in 6.3% of 10,348 patients randomly assigned to tissue plasminogen activator and 7.3% of 20,162 patients randomly assigned to streptokinase thrombolytic therapy. This is equivalent to an unadjusted odds ratio of 0.853. No significant imbalance had occurred for any of 17 baseline characteristics considered, including well-known demographic, presenting, and history characteristics. Adjusted for age, the odds ratio was 0.829, which is an 18% increase in estimated effect on the logistic scale. When adjusted for 17 characteristics, the odds ratio was 0.820, an increase of 25%. The increase in effect estimate was largely explained by the stratification effect and only partly by imbalance of predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjustment for predictive baseline characteristics, even when largely balanced, may lead to clearly different estimates of the treatment effect on mortality rates. Adjustment for important predictors such as age is recommended in clinical trials studying patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Stability of methylene chloride spiked passive samplers: an international shipping and transportation study

A stability study was carried out by dynamically spiking Assay Technology Model 541 passive samplers with known amounts of methylene chloride (MeCl2) and shipping them to facilities around the world. Once arrived, these samples remained on site briefly and then were returned to the laboratory in North Chicago, III. A total of 22 sets of samples was prepared. Each sample set contained four passive samplers: blank, low (2.5 ppm), medium (25 ppm), and high (125 ppm) concentrations. Twelve of the 22 sets were separated into 4 groups of 3 sets, with each group defined as a cluster. One cluster was shipped to a pharmaceutical production facility in each country--South Africa, Pakistan, and Indonesia--and then shipped back to the lab, under normal shipping conditions. The fourth cluster was carried by one of the authors, who traveled through all three countries. The remaining 10 sets of samples were kept in the lab as controls. Each returning cluster was analyzed with two lab sets on arrival in the lab. Results obtained were evaluated using a t-test at a 95% confidence level. No significant differences were found in MeCl2 spiked passive samplers between traveled and lab controls, samples stored at room temperature and in the freezer, or analyzed right after being spiked and stored up to 7 weeks. It was concluded that MeCl2 spiked passive samplers were stable for at least 4 weeks at room temperature. There was no impact observed from international shipping and transportation on MeCl2 spiked passive samplers without temperature control.