Assessment of Effectiveness of Control Strategies Against Simulated Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Ontario, Canada

The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a stochastic model framework developed to simulate the spread of highly contagious diseases of livestock and poultry, such as foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The objective of this study was to make recommendations on the most effective HPAI control policy for Canada, specifically, on the effect of different speeds of detection, effectiveness of movement restrictions and stamping-out and ring-culling strategies on the magnitude of an HPAI outbreak. In addition, the effect of introduction of infection in a range of multiple farms simultaneously was also evaluated. A total of 21 060 scenarios, defined as different combinations of parameters for various epidemiological conditions and control measures, were created to simulate the number of poultry flocks that would become infected as a result of an incursion of HPAI. Each scenario was parameterized in NAADSM and replicated 1000 times, generating the median number of flocks infected at the end of the simulated outbreak for each scenario. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to model significant explanatory variables of the median number of flocks infected at the end of each simulated outbreak for each of the 21 060 scenarios. The final model included the following explanatory variables: number and type initially infected flock(s), density of flocks within the county where the initially infected flock(s) was located, probability of transmission through indirect contact, subclinical spread of the infection, speed of detection and a two-way interaction between intensity of bird destruction strategy and movement restriction effectiveness to reduce transmission through direct and indirect contacts. The modelling results suggested that stamping out of the detected infected flocks, without ring culling, in combination with effective movement restrictions on direct and indirect contacts, would be the most appropriate policy for Ontario.

Colonisation of dentures by Staphylococcus aureus and MRSA in out-patient and in-patient populations

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is an important human pathogen, and colonisation with this organism can result in localised or systemic infections which may be fatal. One hundred in-patients admitted to a London teaching hospital and 100 out-patients attending prosthetic dentistry clinics were recruited into this study. Of the 100 out-patients, 27 % harboured S. aureus on their dentures, compared to 33 % of in-patients. Only one out-patient had MRSA colonising their dentures whereas 12 % of the in-patients harboured MRSA. The median total bacterial count of the denture plaque samples was 6.2 × 10(7) cfu/sample and 6.9 × 10(7) cfu/sample for the out-patient and in-patient populations, respectively. In most instances, where present, S. aureus comprised less than 1 % of the total viable denture microbiota. Phage typing demonstrated that EMRSA-15 and non-typeable strains were harboured on dentures. The results of this study have revealed that dentures are a potential reservoir of MRSA and so account should be taken of these findings when planning decontamination procedures for elimination of this pathogen.

Predicting overall survival for patients with periampullary carcinoma

376

Background: The purpose of this study was to develop a model predicting the overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection, with or without adjuvant therapy. This will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. Methods: Patients treated between 2006-2012 in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry were analyzed. All patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for PAC. 334 patients had adequate records for analysis and were used to develop a multivariate model based on Cox regression. The variables used in our analysis were age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive lymph node ratio (# positive/total), positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy (RT), and tumor histology. Multivariate Cox hazards regression tested significance. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index). Results: Median age of the cohort was 65 years. 54% of the patients were male. Median follow-up time was 16 months. Median overall survival was 19 months. T-stages were as follows: 7% T1, 9% T2, 77% T3, and 8% T4. 27% of the patients had a positive tumor margin, 68% of patients had positive lymph node spread. 81% of the patients had tubular adenocarcinoma, 9% ampullary adenocarcinoma, 5% cholangiocarcinoma, and 4% duodenal carcinoma. T-stage, tumor differentiation, tumor histology, positive lymph node (PLN) ratio, and adjuvant chemotherapy had a statistically significant association with overall survival (Table 1). The model performance c-index was evaluated as 0.630 with 95% CI as [0.571, 0.690], from a bootstrapping internal validation test on 3-year-survival. Conclusions: This model shows promise in predicting survival following resection for patients with PAC. More patient cases and further analysis of additional factors including specific RT related parameters and specific chemotherapy regimen are needed for development of a more robust model. [Table: see text]

A comparison of the WHO 2004 and 2010 classification systems in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNET)

267

Background: PNETs are rare tumors with multiple classification systems. We compared the WHO 2004 and 2010 classification systems for predicting mortality and metastasis. Variables associated with mortality were explored. Methods: Descriptive statistics were calculated for characteristics of 50 PNET patients. The relationship between the WHO 2004 and 2010 system was investigated using an exact Chi squared test. WHO grade categorization was explored by vital status, by the exact method, in order to determine if there was a difference in survivorship and metastasis by grading system. Associations between death and categorical variables were tested using exact methods and between death and continuous variables by the Wilcoxon test. Survival was explored using Cox Proportional Hazards regression (COX). Results: 62 % of patients were female and the median age was 60 years. Both grading systems were strongly associated with predicting mortality (table 1); all cases of mortality were in the higher grades. The 2010 grades do slightly better in predicting metastasis as metastases occur only in high grades (G2 and G3). Patients with lymphovascular or perineural invasion had significantly higher mortality. Mitotic Index was significantly different with a median of 0 in live patients versus 15 in deceased, p <0.001. This was similarly borne out in the survival analysis using COX, where for every one unit increase in Mitotic Index, there was about a one third increase in the hazard of death (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference in survival by tumor size, comorbidities, or margins. Conclusions: The WHO 2010 grading system is strongly associated with predicting mortality and performs better in predicting metastasis than the 2004 grading system. [Table: see text]

Colonoscopy quality assurance in Ontario: Systematic review and clinical practice guideline

Colonoscopy is fundamental to the diagnosis and management of digestive diseases and plays a key role in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and diagnosis. Therefore, it is important to ensure that colonoscopy is of high quality. The present guidance document updates the evidence and recommendations in Cancer Care Ontario's 2007 Colonoscopy Standards, and was conducted under the aegis of the Program in Evidence-Based Care. It is intended to support quality improvement for colonoscopies for all indications, including follow-up to a positive fecal occult blood test, screening for individuals who have a family history of CRC and those at average risk, investigation for symptomatic patients, and surveillance of those with a history of adenomatous polyps or CRC. A systematic review was performed to evaluate the existing evidence concerning the following three key aspects of colonoscopy: physician endoscopist training and maintenance of competency; institutional quality assurance parameters; and colonoscopy quality indicators and auditable outcomes. Where appropriate, indicators were designated quality indicators (where there was sufficient evidence to recommend a specific target) and auditable outcomes (insufficient evidence to recommend a specific target, but which should be monitored for quality assurance purposes). The guidance document may be used to support colonoscopy quality assurance programs to improve the quality of colonoscopy regardless of indication. Improvements in colonoscopy quality are anticipated to improve important outcomes in digestive diseases, such as reduction of the incidence of and mortality from CRC.

Ontario's ColonCancerCheck: results from canada's first province-wide colorectal cancer screening program

BACKGROUND

ColonCancerCheck (CCC), Canada's first province-wide colorectal cancer screening program, was publicly launched in Ontario in April 2008. The objective of this article is to report on key indicators of CCC Program performance since its inception.

METHODS

The CCC Program recommends biennial guaiac-based fecal occult blood test (gFOBT) for persons 50 to 74 years of age at average risk for colorectal cancer and colonoscopy for those at increased risk (having one or more first-degree relatives with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer). Opportunistic screening with colonoscopy is available in Ontario. Five data sources were used to compute indicators of program performance during 2008 to 2011. The indicators computed were FOBT participation, overdue for screening, FOBT positivity, positive predictive value (PPV) of FOBT for colorectal cancer, diagnostic follow-up, and colorectal cancer detection rate.

RESULTS

In 2011, FOBT participation was 29.8% and 46.8% of the target population was overdue for screening. FOBT positivity was higher among men (5.1%) than women (3.5%), and the PPV of FOBT for cancer was 4.3% in 2011. Follow-up colonoscopy within 6 months of a positive FOBT was completed by 74.6% of Program participants in 2011. The cancer detection rates for FOBT and for colonoscopy in those with a family history were 1.3 per 1,000 and 4.0 per 1,000, respectively, in 2011.

CONCLUSION

These results provide an early indication of Program performance and provide findings relevant to other organized colorectal cancer screening programs.

IMPACT

The greater cancer detection rate in those at increased risk due to family history who undergo colonoscopy screening suggests that a strategy of risk stratification will enhance the impact of FOBT-based screening programs.

Improving transition from paediatric to adult cystic fibrosis care: programme implementation and evaluation

BACKGROUND

The paradigm of cystic fibrosis (CF) care has changed as effective therapies extend the lives of patients well into adulthood. Preparing for and maintaining high quality CF care into the adult healthcare setting is critical for prolonged survival. Unfortunately, this transfer process from the paediatric to the adult CF centre is met with a variety of challenges.

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS

The objective of this quality improvement (QI) project was to develop, implement and evaluate a theory-based programme for transition from paediatric to adult CF care. In a multi-phase process, the paediatric and adult programmes developed a transition curriculum, addressed care standards and standardised patient transfer protocols. We evaluated the impact of this process through staff surveys, review of field notes from QI meetings, tracking transfers and responses of patients to the Transition Readiness Assessment Questionnaire (TRAQ) at the start of the programme and 18 months after initiation.

RESULTS

The collaboration between the paediatric and adult teams continued through quarterly meetings over the past 4 years. This has provided a forum that sustained our transition programme, harmonised care across CF centres and addressed other needs of our CF centre. Discussion of transition with families in the paediatric centre increased twofold (35% to 73% p<0.001), and resulted in a trend towards improved patient TRAQ self-advocacy scores and decreased in-hospital transfer.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully created a curriculum and process for transition from paediatric to adult CF care at our centres. This collaboration shapes the communication between our paediatric and adult CF care teams and enables ongoing feedback among patients, families and providers. The impact of our transition programme on long-term patient morbidity will require future evaluation.

Use of complementary markers in assessing glycaemic control in people with diabetic kidney disease undergoing iron or erythropoietin treatment

AIMS

HbA(1c) values are unreliable in patients with diabetes who have chronic kidney disease who receive iron and/or erythropoiesis stimulating agents. The study aimed to evaluate the utility of the complementary glycaemic markers glycated albumin, fructosamine and 1,5 anhydroglucitol in this group of patients.

METHODS

A prospective study of patients with Type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease stage IIIB/IV undergoing intravenous iron or erythropoiesis-stimulating agent therapy. Glycaemic control was monitored using HbA(1c), seven-point daily glucose thrice weekly, continuous glucose monitoring, glycated albumin, fructosamine and 1,5 anhydroglucitol.

RESULTS

Fifteen patients [9 men; median age 72 years (interquartile range 68-74), follow-up period (16.4 ± 3.7 weeks)] received parenteral iron; 15 patients [11 men; 70 years (interquartile range 62-75), (17.3 ± 3.3 weeks)] received erythropoiesis-stimulating agent. HbA(1c) fell following treatment with both iron [57 mmol/mol (7.4%) to 53 mmol/mol (7.0%), P < 0.001] and erythropoiesis-stimulating agent [56 mmol/mol (7.3%) to 49 mmol/mol (6.6%), P = 0.01] despite mean blood glucose remaining unchanged (iron: 9.55 to 9.71 mmol/l, P = 0.07; erythropoiesis-stimulating agent: 8.72 to 8.78 mmol/l, P = 0.89). Unlike HbA1c , the glycated albumin, fructosamine and 1,5 anhydroglucitol levels did not change following iron [glycated albumin (16.8 to 16.3%, P = 0.10); fructosamine (259.5 to 256 μmol/l, P = 0.89); 1,5 anhydroglucitol (54.2 to 50.9 μmol/l, P = 0.89)] or erythropoiesis-stimulating agent [glycated albumin (17.9 to 17.5%, P = 0.29), fructosamine (324.3 to 306.0 μmol/l, P = 0.52), 1,5 anhydroglucitol (58.2 to 46.7 μmol/l, P = 0.35)]. Despite this, HbA(1c) was consistently the marker most closely related to mean blood glucose before and after each treatment (R range 0.7-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

These data indicate that HbA(1c) was statistically most closely related to mean blood glucose, but clinical trends in glycaemia in patients undergoing iron or erythropoiesis-stimulating agent therapy are likely best assessed by including one of these additional glycaemic markers.