Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April-May, 2018: an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

On May 8, 2018, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Équateur Province in the northwest of the country. The remoteness of most affected communities and the involvement of an urban centre connected to the capital city and neighbouring countries makes this outbreak the most complex and high risk ever experienced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We provide early epidemiological information arising from the ongoing investigation of this outbreak.

METHODS

We classified cases as suspected, probable, or confirmed using national case definitions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ministère de la Santé Publique. We investigated all cases to obtain demographic characteristics, determine possible exposures, describe signs and symptoms, and identify contacts to be followed up for 21 days. We also estimated the reproduction number and projected number of cases for the 4-week period from May 25, to June 21, 2018.

FINDINGS

As of May 30, 2018, 50 cases (37 confirmed, 13 probable) of Zaire ebolavirus were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 21 (42%) were reported in Bikoro, 25 (50%) in Iboko, and four (8%) in Wangata health zones. Wangata is part of Mbandaka, the urban capital of Équateur Province, which is connected to major national and international transport routes. By May 30, 2018, 25 deaths from Ebola virus disease had been reported, with a case fatality ratio of 56% (95% CI 39-72) after adjustment for censoring. This case fatality ratio is consistent with estimates for the 2014-16 west African Ebola virus disease epidemic (p=0·427). The median age of people with confirmed or probable infection was 40 years (range 8-80) and 30 (60%) were male. The most commonly reported signs and symptoms in people with confirmed or probable Ebola virus disease were fever (40 [95%] of 42 cases), intense general fatigue (37 [90%] of 41 cases), and loss of appetite (37 [90%] of 41 cases). Gastrointestinal symptoms were frequently reported, and 14 (33%) of 43 people reported haemorrhagic signs. Time from illness onset and hospitalisation to sample testing decreased over time. By May 30, 2018, 1458 contacts had been identified, of which 746 (51%) remained under active follow-up. The estimated reproduction number was 1·03 (95% credible interval 0·83-1·37) and the cumulative case incidence for the outbreak by June 21, 2018, is projected to be 78 confirmed cases (37-281), assuming heterogeneous transmissibility.

INTERPRETATION

The ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has similar epidemiological features to previous Ebola virus disease outbreaks. Early detection, rapid patient isolation, contact tracing, and the ongoing vaccination programme should sufficiently control the outbreak. The forecast of the number of cases does not exceed the current capacity to respond if the epidemiological situation does not change. The information presented, although preliminary, has been essential in guiding the ongoing investigation and response to this outbreak.

FUNDING

None.

International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017

States in south-eastern Brazil were recently affected by the largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak seen in a decade in Latin America. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of travel-related international spread of YF indicating that the United States, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, Italy and Germany may have received at least one travel-related YF case capable of seeding local transmission. Mitigating the risk of imported YF cases seeding local transmission requires heightened surveillance globally.

Isomeric 26Al beam production with CRIB

We performed an experiment to measure proton resonant elastic scattering of a mixed 26m,gAl beam with a thick target in inverse kinematics by using CNS RI beam sep-arator, located at RIKEN Nishina Center. It aimed to search for strong proton resonances and determine level properties of low spin-parity states in 27Si. Diagnosis of the 26mAl purity of the beam by annihilation radiation are discussed.

7Be and 8B reaction dynamics at Coulomb barrier energies

We investigated the reaction dynamics induced by the 7Be,8B+208Pb collisions at energies around the Coulomb barrier. Charged particles originated by both the col- lisions were detected by means of 6 ΔE-Eres telescopes of a newly developed detector array. Experimental data were analysed within the framework of the Optical Model and the total reaction cross-sections were compared together and with the 6,7Li+208Pb colli-sion data. According to the preliminary results, 7Be nucleus reactivity is rather similar to the 7Li one whereas the 8B+208Pb total reaction cross section appears to be much larger than those measured for reactions induced by the other weakly-bound projectiles on the same target.

An infectious way to teach students about outbreaks

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An updated epidemiological teaching exercise was developed.

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Students participate in an outbreak that they subsequently analyse.

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Data from five years of consecutive student cohorts is presented.

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An R package and practical are developed that improve the pedagogical experience.

The study of infectious disease outbreaks is required to train today’s epidemiologists. A typical way to introduce and explain key epidemiological concepts is through the analysis of a historical outbreak. There are, however, few training options that explicitly utilise real-time simulated stochastic outbreaks where the participants themselves comprise the dataset they subsequently analyse. In this paper, we present a teaching exercise in which an infectious disease outbreak is simulated over a five-day period and subsequently analysed. We iteratively developed the teaching exercise to offer additional insight into analysing an outbreak. An R package for visualisation, analysis and simulation of the outbreak data was developed to accompany the practical to reinforce learning outcomes. Computer simulations of the outbreak revealed deviations from observed dynamics, highlighting how simplifying assumptions conventionally made in mathematical models often differ from reality. Here we provide a pedagogical tool for others to use and adapt in their own settings.

Effects of a warm compress containing menthol on the tear film in healthy subjects and dry eye patients

Menthol is thought to stimulate lacrimation via activation of cold-sensitive primary afferent neurons in the cornea. We evaluated a warm compress containing menthol as a potential treatment for dry eye by examining its effects on the tear film in healthy subjects (n = 20) and dry eye patients (n = 35). Disposable eyelid-warming steamers that either did (MH) or did not (HO) contain menthol were applied to one eye of each subject either once only for 10 min or repeatedly over 2 weeks. Single application of MH significantly increased tear meniscus volume (P = 8.6 × 10⁻⁵, P = 1.3 × 10⁻⁵) and tear film breakup time (P = 0.006, P = 0.002) as well as improved meibum condition in healthy subjects and dry eye patients, respectively. Repeated application of MH significantly increased tear meniscus volume (P = 0.004, P = 1.7 × 10⁻⁴) and tear film breakup time (P = 0.037, P = 0.010) in healthy subjects and dry eye patients, respectively. Repeated application of MH thus induced persistent increases in tear fluid volume and tear film stability in dry eye patients, suggesting that repeated use of a warm compress containing menthol is a potential novel treatment for dry eye disease.

The TriAGe+ Score for Vertigo or Dizziness: A Diagnostic Model for Stroke in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Vertigo or dizziness is a common occurrence, but it remains a challenging symptom when encountered in the emergency department (ED). A diagnostic score for stroke with high accuracy is therefore required.

METHODS

A single-center observational study (498 patients) was conducted. The predictor variables were derived from a multivariate logistic regression analysis with Akaike information criterion. The outcome was the occurrence of stroke. We evaluated the utility of a new diagnostic score (TriAGe+) and compared it with the ABCD2 score.

RESULTS

The cohorts included 498 patients (147 with stroke [29.4%]). Eight variables were included: triggers, atrial fibrillation, male gender, blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg, brainstem or cerebellar dysfunction, focal weakness or speech impairment, dizziness, and no history of vertigo or dizziness or labyrinth or vestibular disease. We derived the TriAGe+ score from these variables. In the cohort, the prevalence of stroke increased significantly using the diagnostic score: 5.9% for a score of 0-4; 9.1% for 5-7; 24.7% for 8-9; and 57.3% for 10-17. At a cutoff value of 10 points, the sensitivity of the score was 77.5%, the specificity was 72.1%, and the positive likelihood ratio was 3.2. When the cutoff was defined as 5 points, the score obtained a high sensitivity (96.6%) with a good negative likelihood ratio (.15). The new score outperformed the ABCD2 score for the occurrence of stroke (C statistic, .818 versus .726; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The TriAGe+ score can identify the occurrence of stroke in patients with vertigo or dizziness presenting to the ED.

Acquired Downregulation of Donor-Specific Antibody Production After ABO-Incompatible Kidney Transplantation

The mechanism of long-term B cell immunity against donor blood group antigens in recipients who undergo ABO-incompatible (ABOi) living-donor kidney transplantation (LKTx) is unknown. To address this question, we evaluated serial anti-A and anti-B antibody titers in 50 adult recipients. Donor-specific antibody titers remained low (≤1:4) in 42 recipients (84%). However, antibodies against nondonor blood group antigens were continuously produced in recipients with blood type O. We stimulated recipients' peripheral blood mononuclear cells in vitro to investigate whether B cells produced antibodies against donor blood group antigens in the absence of graft adsorption in vivo. Antibodies in cell culture supernatant were measured using specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). Thirty-five healthy volunteers and 57 recipients who underwent ABO-compatible LKTx served as controls. Antibody production in vitro against donor blood group antigens by cells from ABOi LKTx patients was lower than in the control groups. Immunoglobulin deposits were undetectable in biopsies of grafts of eight recipients with low antibody titers (≤1:4) after ABOi LKTx. One patient with blood type A1 who received a second ABOi LKTx from a type B donor did not produce B-specific antibodies. These findings suggest diminished donor-specific antibody production function in the setting of adult ABOi LKTx.

Follow-up rates of living kidney donor in Japan: A single center study

Long-term follow-up of kidney donors is needed not only for the individual donor's benefit but also to establish analyzable databases to improve the selection criteria for future donors. We collected data including the date of transplantation, the date of the last follow-up, donor's age, sex, their relationship to the recipient, renal function, proteinuria, and the prevalence of hypertension. Of 124 donors, 52 donors were not being followed up. The mean duration of follow-up was 4.3 ± 3.6 years. Follow-up rates were 83.9%, 74.6%, and 59.2% at 1 year, 2 years, and 5 years postdonation, respectively. Of those not being followed up, 75% dropped out. Follow-up rates did not differ between parent and spouse donors 5 years (57.1% vs. 71.4%; P = 0.4) postdonation. Similarly, follow-up rates at 5 years did not differ between donors aged 60 years or older and those younger than 60 (57.5% vs. 61.3%; P = 0.6). Of 72 donors being followed up, 75.0% had estimated glomerular filtration rate of <60 mL/min/1.73 m², 8.3% had proteinuria, and 41.7% had hypertension requiring medication. There is a limitation to the endeavor of each transplant center to follow-up all their donors. Long-term donor follow-up in Japan requires a national registration system and mandates transplant center participation.

Distinct Responses of Interleukin-6 and Other Laboratory Parameters to Treatment in a Patient with Polyarteritis Nodosa—A Case Report

The authors describe a patient in whom the serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and other laboratory parameters were monitored. The IL-6 and C-reac tive protein (CRP) levels, which were extremely high before treatment, declined rapidly with administration of prednisolone. Rheumatoid factor, IgG, and platelets count declined more gradually. Thus, determination of the serum IL-6 level might be useful in diagnosing and monitoring polyarteritis nodosa.

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

BACKGROUND

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available.

Long-term prognosis of IgA nephropathy presenting with minimal or no proteinuria: A single center experience

The long-term prognosis of patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN) who present with preserved renal function and minimal proteinuria is not well described. We investigated the long-term outcomes of IgAN patients with an apparently benign presentation and evaluated prognostic factors for renal survival and clinical remission. We studied Japanese patients with biopsy-proven IgAN who had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m² and proteinuria <0.5 g/day at the time of renal biopsy. The renal biopsies were reviewed using the Oxford classification. Twenty patients met the inclusion criteria. At diagnosis, the median eGFR (interquartile range) was 76.8 (65.2–91.1) mL/min/1.73 m², and the median proteinuria level was 0.31 (0.16–0.39) g/day. Only one patient had an increase in serum creatinine of over 50% and no patient progressed to end-stage renal disease. The 15-year renal survival rate was 93.8%. Clinical remission was observed in 9 (45%) patients. Baseline proteinuria was the only factor significantly associated with the absence of clinical remission. The long-term prognosis of Japanese patients with IgAN who presents with minor urinary abnormalities and preserved renal function is excellent.

Pathway for the Production of Neutron-Rich Isotopes around the N=126 Shell Closure

Absolute cross sections for isotopically identified products formed in multinucleon transfer in the (136)Xe+(198)Pt system at ∼8  MeV/nucleon are reported. The isotopic distributions obtained using a large acceptance spectrometer demonstrated the production of the "hard-to-reach" neutron-rich isotopes for Z<78 around the N=126 shell closure far from stability. The main contribution to the formation of these exotic nuclei is shown to arise in collisions with a small kinetic energy dissipation. The present experimental finding corroborates for the first time recent predictions that multinucleon transfer reactions would be the optimum method to populate and characterize neutron-rich isotopes around N=126 which are crucial for understanding both astrophysically relevant processes and the evolution of "magic" numbers far from stability.

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries

BACKGROUND

Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1-4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.

Transmission and control of Plasmodium knowlesi: a mathematical modelling study

Introduction

Plasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come into increasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potential for a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical.

Methods

A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection.

Results

Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R_0H = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively.

Conclusion

This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled.

Plasmodium knowlesi is a malaria of macaques which is now recognised as a leading cause of human malaria in Malaysia. Although current human infections are a result of human-macaque contact, there is a potential for P. knowlesi to be transmitted solely among humans. The authors developed a multi-host, multi-site transmission model to assess the likelihood of this happening due to increased human-macaque contact as a consequence of deforestation, population growth, and land-use change. How effective currently available malaria control measures were against P. knowlesi was also an important issue that was explored using the model. Although the model predicts that conventional control measures will be sufficient against P. knowlesi, with the push to eliminate malaria by the end of 2015, it is crucial to be aware of zoonotic malarias which may undermine such efforts.