CNS-directed therapy for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: Childhood ALL Collaborative Group overview of 43 randomized trials

PURPOSE

A collaborative meta-analysis was performed to clarify the relative effects on relapse and survival of different types of therapies directed at the CNS in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were sought for each individual patient in all trials started in or before 1993 that included unconfounded randomized comparisons of such treatments. Log-rank survival analyses were performed for each trial, and overall results for groups of trials addressing similar questions were obtained from the totals of the observed minus expected number of events and their variances.

RESULTS

Radiotherapy and long-term intrathecal therapy gave similar outcomes, with no significant difference in event-free survival despite random assignment of treatment to 2,848 patients, 1,001 of whom suffered relapse or death. Intravenous methotrexate reduced non-CNS rather than CNS relapses, and hence, the addition of intravenous methotrexate to a treatment regimen including radiotherapy or long-term intrathecal therapy improved event-free survival, with a 17% reduction in the event rate (95% confidence interval, 6% to 27%; P =.003). The event-free survival at 10 years in these trials was 61.9% without intravenous methotrexate and 68.1% with intravenous methotrexate. There was no significant difference in survival (14% death rate reduction; P =.09). There were insufficient randomly assigned patients to adequately address other questions, such as effect of different doses. No evidence was found of differences, between trials or between subgroups of different types of patients, in the relative effects of treatment.

CONCLUSION

Radiotherapy can be replaced by long-term intrathecal therapy. Intravenous methotrexate gives some additional benefit by reducing non-CNS relapses.

Treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis with aminosidine (paromomycin) ointment: double-blind, randomized trial in the Islamic Republic of Iran

OBJECTIVE

To compare the parasitological and clinical efficacy of four weeks versus two weeks of treatment with aminosidine (paromomycin) ointment in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

METHODS

Double-blind, randomized trial of four weeks of aminosidine ointment (n = 108) vs two weeks of aminosidine ointment and two weeks of placebo (n = 108). Patients were assessed on days 15, 29, 45, and 105 for clinical cures and clinical and parasitological cures.

FINDINGS

Four weeks' treatment gave significantly better cure rates than two weeks' treatment: on day 29, there were 80/108 (74%) vs 64/108 (59%) clinical cures (P = 0.05) and 47 (44%) vs 26 (24%) clinical and parasitological cures (P = 0.005). By day 45, fewer patients who received four weeks' treatment had required rescue treatment with antimonials than those who received two weeks' treatment: 20 (19%) vs 36 (33%) (P = 0.02). On day 105, the results still favoured those who had been allocated four weeks of active treatment, but the differences were no longer as clearly significant. No side-effects were observed or reported.

CONCLUSION

Approximately two-thirds of patients given ointment for four weeks were cured clinically. Although about half of those cured might have recovered spontaneously even without treatment, four weeks of aminosidine ointment could become the first-line treatment for uncomplicated cutaneous leishmaniasis due to L. major, with antimonials needed in only the one-third of patients not cured by the end of treatment with aminosidine. This would considerably reduce the costs and side-effects associated with antimonial drugs.

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer--collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58,515 women with breast cancer and 95,067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58,515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95,067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19-1.45, P<0.00001) for an intake of 35-44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33-1.61, P<0.00001) for >/=45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1% per 10 g per day, P<0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers=1.03, 95% CI 0.98-1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92-1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver.

Underestimation of the importance of blood pressure and cholesterol for coronary heart disease mortality in old age

AIMS

To take appropriate account of duration of follow-up in estimating age-specific associations of 'usual' blood pressure and cholesterol with death from coronary heart disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Blood pressure and cholesterol were measured in 18 841 men at entry to the Whitehall study, and coronary heart disease mortality was recorded during a 26-year period. Biennial re-measurements of these risk factors in the Framingham study were used to obtain period-specific corrections for 'regression dilution'. For coronary heart disease deaths at ages 40-64, 65-74 and 75+ years in the Whitehall study, the mean times since baseline were 9, 15, and 21 years, respectively. In uncorrected analyses of coronary heart disease risk in each age range, a 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure at baseline was associated with proportional risk reductions of only 19%, 14% and 10%, respectively (P<0.001 for trend with age). After period-specific correction for regression dilution, a 10 mmHg lower usual systolic blood pressure about 5 years before coronary heart disease death was associated with risk reductions of 25%, 23% and 21%, respectively (trend P=0.1). Similarly, a 1 mmol . l(-1)lower blood cholesterol was associated with proportional reductions in coronary heart disease risk of 21%, 17% and 11% (trend P<0.001) in uncorrected analyses, by contrast with proportional reductions of 27%, 26% and 21% (trend P=0.5) after period-specific correction.

CONCLUSIONS

After making appropriate allowance for the longer interval between baseline measurements and death at older ages, reductions in the risk of coronary heart disease death associated with differences in usual levels of blood pressure or cholesterol at some particular fixed time prior to death were about as great in old age as in middle age.

Mortality and smoking in Hong Kong: case-control study of all adult deaths in 1998

OBJECTIVE

To assess the mortality currently associated with smoking in Hong Kong, and, since cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier in Hong Kong than in mainland China, to predict mortality in China 20 years hence.

DESIGN

Case-control study. Past smoking habits of all Chinese adults in Hong Kong who died in 1998 (cases) were sought from those registering the death.

SETTING

All the death registries in Hong Kong.

PARTICIPANTS

27 507 dead cases (81% of all registered deaths) and 13 054 live controls aged >/=35 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality from all causes and from specific causes.

RESULTS

In men aged 35-69 the adjusted risk ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) comparing smokers with non-smokers were 1.92 (1.70 to 2.16) for all deaths, 2.22 (1.94 to 2.55) for neoplastic deaths, 2.60 (2.10 to 3.21) for respiratory deaths (including tuberculosis, risk ratio 2.54), and 1.68 (1.43 to 1.97) for vascular deaths (each P<0.0001). In women aged 35-69 the corresponding risk ratios were 1.62 (1.40 to 1.88) for all deaths, 1.60 (1.33 to 1.93) for neoplastic deaths, 3.13 (2.21 to 4.44) for respiratory deaths, and 1.55 (1.20 to 1.99) for vascular deaths (each P<0.001). If these associations with smoking are largely or wholly causal then, among all registered deaths at ages 35-69 in 1998, tobacco caused about 33% (2534/7588) of all male deaths and 5% (169/3341) of all female deaths (hence 25% of all deaths at these ages). At older ages tobacco seemed to be the cause of 15% (3017/20 420) of all deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Among middle aged men the proportion of deaths caused by smoking is more than twice as big in Hong Kong now (33%) as in mainland China 10 years earlier. This supports predictions of a large increase in tobacco attributable mortality in China as a whole.

A prospective study of Helicobacter pylori seropositivity and the risk for future myocardial infarction among socioeconomically similar U.S. men

BACKGROUND

The role of Helicobacter pylori as a determinant of cardiovascular disease is controversial.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether previous exposure to H. pylori is associated with an increased risk for myocardial infarction.

DESIGN

Prospective case-control study.

SETTING

Physicians' Health Study.

PARTICIPANTS

Initially healthy U.S. men.

MEASUREMENTS

Titers of IgG antibody against H. pylori and several inflammatory markers were measured in baseline blood samples obtained from 445 men who subsequently had a myocardial infarction (case-patients) and 445 men matched for age and smoking status who remained free of vascular disease (controls) during a mean follow-up of 8.9 years.

RESULTS

Baseline seropositivity was similar among case-patients and controls (43.4% vs. 44.3%; rate ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.7 to 1.3]). Minimal evidence of association was found between magnitude of seropositivity and subsequent risk and between seropositivity and levels of the inflammatory biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

In a socioeconomically homogeneous population, we found limited evidence of association between H. pylori exposure and risk for future myocardial infarction.

Lipoprotein(a) and coronary heart disease. Meta-analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND

-Studies of the association between the plasma concentration of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] and coronary heart disease (CHD) have reported apparently conflicting findings. We report a meta-analysis of the prospective studies with at least 1 year of follow-up published before 2000.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The following information was abstracted for each study: geographical location of study, size, type of cohort (population-based or selected because of previous disease), mean age, follow-up duration, blood storage temperature and duration, assay methods, degree of adjustment for potential confounders, and relationship of baseline Lp(a) measurement with subsequent CHD risk. There were 5436 deaths from CHD or nonfatal myocardial infarctions during a weighted mean follow-up of 10 years in the 27 eligible studies. Comparison of individuals in the top third of baseline plasma Lp(a) measurements with those in the bottom third in each study yielded a combined risk ratio of 1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.8, 2P:<0.00001), with similar findings when the analyses were restricted to the 18 studies of general populations (combined risk ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.4 to 1.9; 2P:<0. 00001). Despite differences among studies in blood storage techniques and assay methods, there was no significant heterogeneity among the results from the 18 population-based studies or among those from the 9 studies of patients with previous disease. Lp(a) was only weakly correlated with classical vascular risk factors, and adjustment for those that had been recorded made little difference to the reported risk ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

These prospective studies demonstrate a clear association between Lp(a) and CHD, but further studies are needed to determine the extent to which this is causal.

Smoking, smoking cessation, and lung cancer in the UK since 1950: combination of national statistics with two case-control studies

OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN

To relate UK national trends since 1950 in smoking, in smoking cessation, and in lung cancer to the contrasting results from two large case-control studies centred around 1950 and 1990.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

Hospital patients under 75 years of age with and without lung cancer in 1950 and 1990, plus, in 1990, a matched sample of the local population: 1465 case-control pairs in the 1950 study, and 982 cases plus 3185 controls in the 1990 study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Smoking prevalence and lung cancer.

RESULTS

For men in early middle age in the United Kingdom the prevalence of smoking halved between 1950 and 1990 but the death rate from lung cancer at ages 35-54 fell even more rapidly, indicating some reduction in the risk among continuing smokers. In contrast, women and older men who were still current smokers in 1990 were more likely than those in 1950 to have been persistent cigarette smokers throughout adult life and so had higher lung cancer rates than current smokers in 1950. The cumulative risk of death from lung cancer by age 75 (in the absence of other causes of death) rose from 6% at 1950 rates to 16% at 1990 rates in male cigarette smokers, and from 1% to 10% in female cigarette smokers. Among both men and women in 1990, however, the former smokers had only a fraction of the lung cancer rate of continuing smokers, and this fraction fell steeply with time since stopping. By 1990 cessation had almost halved the number of lung cancers that would have been expected if the former smokers had continued. For men who stopped at ages 60, 50, 40, and 30 the cumulative risks of lung cancer by age 75 were 10%, 6%, 3%, and 2%.

CONCLUSIONS

People who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer, and stopping before middle age avoids more than 90% of the risk attributable to tobacco. Mortality in the near future and throughout the first half of the 21st century could be substantially reduced by current smokers giving up the habit. In contrast, the extent to which young people henceforth become persistent smokers will affect mortality rates chiefly in the middle or second half of the 21st century.

Clinical effects of early angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor treatment for acute myocardial infarction are similar in the presence and absence of aspirin: systematic overview of individual data from 96,712 randomized patients. Angiotensin-converting Enzyme Inhibitor Myocardial Infarction Collaborative Group

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine whether the clinical effects of early angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor (ACEi) treatment for acute myocardial infarction (MI) are influenced by the concomitant use of aspirin (ASA).

BACKGROUND

Aspirin and ACEi both reduce mortality when given early after MI. Aspirin inhibits the synthesis of vasodilating prostaglandins, and, in principle, this inhibition might antagonize some of the effects of ACEi. But it is uncertain whether, in practice, this influences the effects of ACEi on mortality and major morbidity after MI.

METHODS

This overview sought individual patient data from all trials involving more than 1,000 patients randomly allocated to receive ACEi or control starting in the acute phase of MI (0-36 h from onset) and continuing for four to six weeks. Data on concomitant ASA use were available for 96,712 of 98,496 patients in four eligible trials (and for none of 1,556 patients in the one other eligible trial).

RESULTS

Overall 30-day mortality was 7.1% among patients allocated to ACEi and 7.6% among those allocated to control, corresponding to a 7% (standard deviation [SD], 2%) proportional reduction (95% confidence interval 2% to 11%, p = 0.004). Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor was associated with similar proportional reductions in 30-day mortality among the 86,484 patients who were taking ASA (6% [SD, 3%] reduction) and among the 10,228 patients who were not (10% [SD, 5%] reduction: chi-squared test of heterogeneity between these reductions = 0.4; p = 0.5). Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor produced definite increases in the incidence of persistent hypotension (17.9% ACEi vs. 9.4% control) and of renal dysfunction (1.3% ACEi vs. 0.6% control), but there was no good evidence that these effects were different in the presence or absence of ASA (chi-squared for heterogeneity = 0.4 and 0.0, respectively; both not significant). Nor was there good evidence that the effects of ACEi on other clinical outcomes were changed by concomitant ASA use.

CONCLUSIONS

Both ASA and ACEi are beneficial in acute MI. The present results support the early use of ACEi in acute MI, irrespective of whether or not ASA is being given.

Indications for early aspirin use in acute ischemic stroke : A combined analysis of 40 000 randomized patients from the chinese acute stroke trial and the international stroke trial. On behalf of the CAST and IST collaborative groups

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Long-term daily aspirin is of benefit in the years after ischemic stroke, and 2 large randomized trials (the Chinese Acute Stroke Trial [CAST] and the International Stroke Trial [IST]), with 20 000 patients in each, have shown that starting daily aspirin promptly in patients with suspected acute ischemic stroke also reduces the immediate risk of further stroke or death in hospital and the overall risk of death or dependency. However, some uncertainty remains about the effects of early aspirin in particular categories of patient with acute stroke.

METHODS

To assess the balance of benefits and risks of aspirin in particular categories of patient with acute stroke (eg, the elderly, those without a CT scan, or those with atrial fibrillation), a prospectively planned meta-analysis is presented of the data from 40 000 individual patients from both trials on events that occurred in the hospital during the scheduled treatment period (4 weeks in CAST, 2 weeks in IST), with 10 characteristics used to define 28 subgroups. This represents 99% of the worldwide evidence from randomized trials.

RESULTS

There was a highly significant reduction of 7 per 1000 (SD 1) in recurrent ischemic stroke (320 [1.6%] aspirin versus 457 [2. 3%] control, 2P<0.000001) and a less clearly significant reduction of 4 (SD 2) per 1000 in death without further stroke (5.0% versus 5. 4%, 2P=0.05). Against these benefits, there was an increase of 2 (SD 1) per 1000 in hemorrhagic stroke or hemorrhagic transformation of the original infarct (1.0% versus 0.8%, 2P=0.07) and no apparent effect on further stroke of unknown cause (0.9% versus 0.9%). In total, therefore, there was a net decrease of 9 (SD 3) per 1000 in the overall risk of further stroke or death in hospital (8.2% versus 9.1%, 2P=0.001). For the reduction of one third in recurrent ischemic stroke, subgroup-specific analyses found no significant heterogeneity of the proportional benefit of aspirin (chi(2)(18)=20. 9, NS), even though the overall treatment effect (chi(2)(1)=24.8, 2P<0.000001) was sufficiently large for such subgroup analyses to be statistically informative. The absolute risk among control patients was similar in all 28 subgroups, so the absolute reduction of approximately 7 per 1000 in recurrent ischemic stroke does not differ substantially with respect to age, sex, level of consciousness, atrial fibrillation, CT findings, blood pressure, stroke subtype, or concomitant heparin use. There was no good evidence that the apparent decrease of approximately 4 per 1000 in death without further stroke was reversed in any subgroup or that in any subgroup the increase in hemorrhagic stroke was much larger than the overall average of approximately 2 per 1000. Finally, there was no significant heterogeneity between the reductions in the composite outcome of any further stroke or death (chi(2)(18)=16.5, NS). Among the 9000 patients (22%) randomized without a prior CT scan, aspirin appeared to be of net benefit with no unusual excess of hemorrhagic stroke; moreover, even among the 800 (2%) who had inadvertently been randomized after a hemorrhagic stroke, there was no evidence of net hazard (further stroke or death, 63 aspirin versus 67 control).

CONCLUSIONS

Early aspirin is of benefit for a wide range of patients, and its prompt use should be routinely considered for all patients with suspected acute ischemic stroke, mainly to reduce the risk of early recurrence.

Smoking and dementia in male British doctors: prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the possible association between smoking and dementia.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

Cohort of British male doctors followed up since 1951.

SUBJECTS

34 439 male British doctors, with 24 133 deaths recorded.

RESULTS

For all types of dementia combined the relative risk was 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.18), based on 473 deaths at a mean age of 81 years. For probable or definite Alzheimer's disease, the relative risk in continuing smokers was 0.99 (0.78 to 1.25), based on 370 deaths at a mean age of 82 years. In aggregate, however, the other prospective studies indicate a direct, although not clearly significant, association between smoking and the onset of dementia in general and of Alzheimer's disease in particular.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to previous suggestions persistent smoking does not substantially reduce the age specific onset rate of Alzheimer's disease or of dementia in general. If anything, it might increase rather than decrease the rate, but any net effect on severe dementia cannot be large in either direction.

Large-scale test of hypothesised associations between the angiotensin-converting-enzyme insertion/deletion polymorphism and myocardial infarction in about 5000 cases and 6000 controls. International Studies of Infarct Survival (ISIS) Collaborators

BACKGROUND

The original report of a possible association between myocardial infarction and the insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism of the gene for the angiotensin-1-converting enzyme (ACE) indicated a risk ratio for myocardial infarction with the DD genotype of 1.34 (95% CI 1.05-1.70), and the association was claimed to be particularly strong in a retrospectively defined low-risk subgroup (3.2 [95% CI 1.7-5.9). Subsequent investigations reached varying conclusions, but all were small, and much larger studies were needed.

METHODS

4629 myocardial infarction cases and 5934 controls were compared. Cases were UK men aged 30-54 years and women aged 30-64 years recruited on presentation to hospital with confirmed myocardial infarction. Controls were aged 30-64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease, but were siblings or children of myocardial infarction survivors, or spouses of such relatives. All risk-ratio calculations allow for this relatedness of some of the controls. An updated meta-analysis of previous studies was also conducted.

FINDINGS

The ACE DD genotype was found in 1359 (29.4%) of the myocardial infarction cases and in 1637 (27.6%) of the controls (risk ratio 1.10 [95% CI 1.00-1.21]). The association between myocardial infarction and the DD genotype did not seem to be stronger in the subgroup defined as low risk by previously used criteria (234 [28%] of 836 cases and 911 [28%] of 3253 controls: risk ratio 1.04 [95% CI 0.87-1.24]), or in any other subgroup. Nor was the ACE I/D genotype predictive of subsequent survival.

INTERPRETATION

This study involved many more cases than any previously reported study of this question, but did not confirm the existence of any substantial association. In an updated meta-analysis of these results with those of previously published studies, the risk ratio for myocardial infarction with the DD genotype seems to lie in the range 1.0 to about 1.1. Although an increase in risk of up to about 10-15% cannot be ruled out, substantially more extreme risks can be. Moreover, there are not especially strong associations in the subgroups previously selected for emphasis. These findings illustrate the need for some studies of candidate genes to involve much larger populations than is customary, without undue emphasis on retrospectively defined subgroups.

Zidovudine (AZT) versus AZT plus didanosine (ddI) versus AZT plus zalcitabine (ddC) in HIV infected adults

BACKGROUND

Zidovudine (AZT) monotherapy was the first antiretroviral drug to be tested widely. The next two drugs to be developed were didanosine (ddI) and zalcitabine (ddC).

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of zidovudine (AZT), zidovudine plus didanosine (ddI) and zidovudine plus zalcitabine (ddC) on HIV disease progression and survival.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Investigators and pharmaceutical companies were contacted, and MEDLINE searches were supplemented by searching conference abstracts.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials comparing any two of AZT plus ddI, AZT plus ddC or AZT alone in participants with or without AIDS which collected information on deaths and new AIDS events.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Individual patient data with, wherever possible, follow-up obtained beyond that previously published were obtained and checked for internal consistency and consistency with any published reports; any apparent discrepancies were resolved with the trialists. Time to death and to disease progression (defined as a new AIDS-defining event or prior death) were analysed on an intention to treat basis, stratified to avoid direct comparisons between participants in different trials.

MAIN RESULTS

Six trials were included in the meta-analysis. During a median follow-up of 29 months, 2904 individuals progressed, of whom 1850 died. The addition of ddI to AZT delayed both progression (RR 0.74; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.82, P<0.0001) and death (RR 0.72; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.82, P<0.0001). Likewise, the addition of ddC to AZT also delayed progression (RR 0. 86; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.94, P=0.001) and death (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98, P=0.02). After 3 years the estimated percentages alive and without a new AIDS event were 53% for AZT+ddI, 49% for AZT+ddC and 44% for AZT alone; the percentages alive were 68%, 63% and 59% respectively. Five of the six trials involved randomised comparisons of AZT+ddI versus AZT+ddC: in these, the AZT+ddI regimen had greater effects on disease progression (P=0.004) and death (P=0.009).

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

The use of ddI and, to a lesser extent, ddC delayed both HIV disease progression and death, at least when added to AZT.

Immediate versus deferred zidovudine (AZT) in asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic HIV infected adults

BACKGROUND

Zidovudine (AZT) monotherapy was the first antiretroviral drug to be tested widely. Subsequent trials in asymptomatic or early symptomatic HIV infection indicated short-term delays in disease progression with AZT, but not improved survival.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of immediate versus deferred zidovudine (AZT) on HIV disease progression and survival.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Investigators and pharmaceutical companies were contacted, and MEDLINE searches were supplemented by searching conference abstracts.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials comparing immediate versus deferred AZT in participants without AIDS which prospectively collected deaths and new AIDS events.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Individual patient data with, wherever possible, follow-up obtained beyond that previously published was obtained and checked for internal consistency and consistency with any published reports; any apparent discrepancies were resolved with the trialists. Time to death and to disease progression (defined as a new AIDS-defining event or prior death) were analysed on an intention to treat basis, stratified to avoid direct comparisons between participants in different trials.

MAIN RESULTS

Nine trials were included in the meta-analysis. During a median follow-up of 50 months, 1908 individuals developed disease progression, of whom 1351 died. In the deferred group, 61% started antiretroviral therapy (median time to therapy 28 months, which was AZT monotherapy in 94%). During the first year of follow-up immediate AZT halved the rate of disease progression (P<0.0001), increasing the probability of AIDS-free survival at one year from 96% to 98%, but this early benefit did not persist: after 6 years AIDS-free survival was 54% in both groups, and at no time was there any difference in overall survival, which at 6 years was 64% with immediate and 65% with deferred AZT (rate ratio [RR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0. 94 to 1.15).

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

Although immediate use of AZT halved disease progression during the first year, this effect was not sustained, and there was no improvement in survival in the short or long term.

Helicobacter pylori infection and early onset myocardial infarction: case-control and sibling pairs study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between coronary heart disease and chronic Helicobacter pylori infection.

DESIGN

Case-control study of myocardial infarction at young ages and study of sibling pairs with one member affected and the other not.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

1122 survivors of suspected acute myocardial infarction at ages 30-49 (mean age 44 years) and 1122 age and sex matched controls with no history of coronary heart disease; 510 age and sex matched pairs of siblings (mean age 59 years) in which one sibling had survived myocardial infarction and one had no history of coronary heart disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serological evidence of chronic infection with H pylori.

RESULTS

472 (42%) of the 1122 cases with early onset myocardial infarction were seropositive for H pylori antibodies compared with 272 (24%) of the 1122 age and sex matched controls, giving an odds ratio of 2.28 (99% confidence interval 1.80 to 2.90). This odds ratio fell to 1.87 (1.42 to 2.47; P<0.0001) after smoking and indicators of socioeconomic status were adjusted for and to 1.75 (1.29 to 2.36) after additional adjustment for blood lipid concentrations and obesity. Only 158 of the 510 pairs of siblings were discordant for H pylori status; among these, 91 cases and 67 controls were seropositive (odds ratio 1.33 (0.86 to 2.05)). No strong correlations were observed between H pylori seropositivity and measurements of other risk factors for coronary heart disease (plasma lipids, fibrinogen, C reactive protein, albumin, etc).

CONCLUSION

In the context of results from other relevant studies, these two studies suggest a moderate association between coronary heart disease and H pylori seropositivity that cannot be fully accounted for by other risk factors. But even if this association is causal and largely reversible by eradication of chronic infection, very large randomised trials would be needed to show this.

Underestimation of risk associations due to regression dilution in long-term follow-up of prospective studies

In prospective studies, disease rates during follow-up are typically analyzed with respect to the values of factors measured during an initial baseline survey. However, because of "regression dilution," this generally tends to underestimate the real associations of disease rates with the "usual" levels of such risk factors during some particular exposure period. The "regression dilution ratio" describes the ratio of the steepness of the uncorrected association to that of the real association. To assess the relevance of the usual value of a risk factor during particular exposure periods (e.g., first, second, and third decades) to disease risks, regression dilution ratios can be derived by relating baseline measurements of the risk factor to replicate measurements from a reasonably representative sample of study participants after an interval equivalent to about the midpoint of each exposure period (e.g., at 5, 15, and 25 years, respectively). This report illustrates the impact of this time interval on the magnitude of the regression dilution ratios for blood pressure and blood cholesterol. The analyses were based on biennial remeasurements over 30 years for participants in the Framingham Study (Framingham, Massachusetts) and a 26-year resurvey for a sample of men in the Whitehall Study (London, England). They show that uncorrected associations of disease risk with baseline measurements underestimate the strength of the real associations with usual levels of these risk factors during the first decade of exposure by about one-third, the second decade by about one-half, and the third decade by about two-thirds. Hence, to correct appropriately for regression dilution, replicate measurements of such risk factors may be required at varying intervals after baseline for at least a sample of participants.