Chance, time allocation, and the evolution of adaptively flexible sex role behavior

An alternative to classic sexual selection hypotheses for sex differentiated pre-mating behavior is that time available for mating-as individuals experience it-along with fitness differences among alternative potential mates, induces choosy versus indiscriminate mating behavior. This alternative hypothesis says that selection has acted so that all individuals flexibly express fitness-enhancing choosy, indiscriminate, and competitive mating behavior, induced by time-varying life histories, environmental and social cues. Key predictions of DYNAMATE, the formal model of adaptively flexible sex role behavior of individuals of both sexes within dynamically changing populations, include: (1) All individuals regardless of sex assess likely fitness outcomes from mating with alternative potential mates before expressing choosy or indiscriminate behavior. (2) Males and females express adaptively flexible, choosy and indiscriminate behavior so that individuals may change their behavior-from moment to moment-to fit dynamically changing circumstances. (3) Indiscriminate behavior of males and (4) choosy behavior of females would often be maladaptive even in species with greater female than male parental investment, when females have longer latencies to receptivity to re-mating than males, and when the relative reproductive rate of males is greater than in females. (5) Whether or not females show choosy behavior will not affect whether or not males exhibit choosy or indiscriminate behavior, and vice versa. (6) When other model parameters are equal, the proportion of individuals of a given sex expressing choosy or indiscriminate mating behavior is a function of the distribution of fitness ratios (a distribution of all fitness differences that would be conferred on an individual by mating with any two sequentially or simultaneously encountered alternative potential mates). (7) Whether same-sex individuals behaviorally compete is a function of the fitness that would be conferred if the strategist won access to a potential mate, but not a function of relative reproductive rate or its proxy, the operational sex ratio. We call for re-evaluation of sex differences in choosy, indiscriminate, and competitive behavior under strong experimental controls that level the ecological playing fields of males and females, i.e., under experimental conditions informing the mechanisms of phenotypic expression. We end with comments on the classic question of questions: why are the sexes as they are?

Comment on “Global Correlations in Tropical Tree Species Richness and Abundance Reject Neutrality”

Ricklefs and Renner (Reports, 27 January 2012, p. 464) have argued that the neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography cannot explain the correlations in family abundances and species richness found between tropical forests from distinct continents. However, we show that such patterns can arise from neutral processes of diversification, migration, and drift over large spatial and temporal scales.

Growth strategies of tropical tree species: disentangling light and size effects

An understanding of the drivers of tree growth at the species level is required to predict likely changes of carbon stocks and biodiversity when environmental conditions change. Especially in species-rich tropical forests, it is largely unknown how species differ in their response of growth to resource availability and individual size. We use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to quantify the impact of light availability and tree diameter on growth of 274 woody species in a 50-ha long-term forest census plot in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Light reaching each individual tree was estimated from yearly vertical censuses of canopy density. The hierarchical Bayesian approach allowed accounting for different sources of error, such as negative growth observations, and including rare species correctly weighted by their abundance. All species grew faster at higher light. Exponents of a power function relating growth to light were mostly between 0 and 1. This indicates that nearly all species exhibit a decelerating increase of growth with light. In contrast, estimated growth rates at standardized conditions (5 cm dbh, 5% light) varied over a 9-fold range and reflect strong growth-strategy differentiation between the species. As a consequence, growth rankings of the species at low (2%) and high light (20%) were highly correlated. Rare species tended to grow faster and showed a greater sensitivity to light than abundant species. Overall, tree size was less important for growth than light and about half the species were predicted to grow faster in diameter when bigger or smaller, respectively. Together light availability and tree diameter only explained on average 12% of the variation in growth rates. Thus, other factors such as soil characteristics, herbivory, or pathogens may contribute considerably to shaping tree growth in the tropics.

Directional changes in the species composition of a tropical forest

Long-term studies have revealed that the structure and dynamics of many tropical forests are changing, but the causes and consequences of these changes remain debated. To learn more about the forces driving changes within tropical forests, we investigated shifts in tree species composition over the past 25 years within the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and examined how observed patterns relate to predictions of (1) random population fluctuations, (2) carbon fertilization, (3) succession from past disturbance, (4) recovery from an extreme El Niño drought at the start of the study period, and (5) long-term climate change. We found that there have been consistent and directional changes in the tree species composition. These shifts have led to increased relative representations of drought-tolerant species as determined by the species' occurrence both across a gradient of soil moisture within BCI and across a wider precipitation gradient from a dry forest near the Pacific coast of Panama to a wet forest near its Caribbean coast. These nonrandom changes cannot be explained by stochastic fluctuations or carbon fertilization. They may be the legacy of the El Niño drought, or alternatively, potentially reflect increased aridity due to long-term climate change. By investigating compositional changes, we increased not only our understanding of the ecology of tropical forests and their responses to large-scale disturbances, but also our ability to predict how future global change will impact some of the critical services provided by these important ecosystems.

Inferring species interactions in tropical forests

We present 2 distinct and independent approaches to deduce the effective interaction strengths between species and apply it to the 20 most abundant species in the long-term 50-ha plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The first approach employs the principle of maximum entropy, and the second uses a stochastic birth-death model. Both approaches yield very similar answers and show that the collective effects of the pairwise interspecific interaction strengths are weak compared with the intraspecific interactions. Our approaches can be applied to other ecological communities in steady state to evaluate the extent to which interactions need to be incorporated into theoretical explanations for their structure and dynamics.

Local neighborhood and species' shade tolerance influence survival in a diverse seedling bank

Accumulating evidence suggests that negative density dependence, particularly at early life stages, is widespread in plant communities. We hypothesized that survival in forest seedling banks declines with increasing density of conspecific neighbors and that local-scale effects cause a negative correlation between seedling survival and tree species abundance in the community. We tested these hypotheses using data on 48 956 established seedlings of 235 species over three years in a 50-ha plot in Panama. For all species combined, we found a significant negative effect of conspecific seedling and adult neighbors within 10 m. In species-level analyses, neighbor density affected survival for 45 of 59 species, with effects of conspecifics different from heterospecifics for 29 species. Despite negative effects of local conspecific neighbors, seedling survival tended to be positively correlated with species abundance at the 50-ha scale. However, when accounting for species' shade tolerance, we found a significant negative relationship between seedling survival and species' basal area, but not density, in the 50-ha plot. Our findings indicate that attempts to quantify the contribution of density dependence to tropical tree species coexistence must integrate effects of neighbors across multiple life stages and should also take into account variation in life history strategy.

Pervasive canopy dynamics produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape

A fundamental property of all forest landscapes is the size frequency distribution of canopy gap disturbances. But characterizing forest structure and changes at large spatial scales has been challenging and most of our understanding is from permanent inventory plots. Here we report the first application of light detection and ranging remote sensing to measurements of canopy disturbance and regeneration in an old-growth tropical rain forest landscape. Pervasive local height changes figure prominently in the dynamics of this forest. Although most canopy gaps recruited to higher positions during 8.5 years, size frequency distributions were similar at two points in time and well-predicted by power-laws. At larger spatial scales (hundreds of ha), height increases and decreases occurred with similar frequency and changes to canopy height that were analysed using a height transition matrix suggest that the distribution of canopy height at the beginning of the study was close to the projected steady-state equilibrium under the recent disturbance regime. Taken together, these findings show how widespread local height changes can produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape.

Colloquium paper: how many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct?

New roads, agricultural projects, logging, and mining are claiming an ever greater area of once-pristine Amazonian forest. The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA) forecasts the extinction of a large fraction of Amazonian tree species based on projected loss of forest cover over the next several decades. How accurate are these estimates of extinction rates? We use neutral theory to estimate the number, relative abundance, and range size of tree species in the Amazon metacommunity and estimate likely tree-species extinctions under published optimistic and nonoptimistic Amazon scenarios. We estimate that the Brazilian portion of the Amazon Basin has (or had) 11,210 tree species that reach sizes >10 cm DBH (stem diameter at breast height). Of these, 3,248 species have population sizes >1 million individuals, and, ignoring possible climate-change effects, almost all of these common species persist under both optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios. At the rare end of the abundance spectrum, however, neutral theory predicts the existence of approximately 5,308 species with <10,000 individuals each that are expected to suffer nearly a 50% extinction rate under the nonoptimistic deforestation scenario and an approximately 37% loss rate even under the optimistic scenario. Most of these species have small range sizes and are highly vulnerable to local habitat loss. In ensembles of 100 stochastic simulations, we found mean total extinction rates of 20% and 33% of tree species in the Brazilian Amazon under the optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios, respectively.

Contrasting structure and composition of the understory in species-rich tropical rain forests

In large samples of trees > or = 1 cm dbh (more than 1 million trees and 3000 species), in six lowland tropical forests on three continents, we assigned species with >30 individuals to one of six classes of stature at maturity (SAM). We then compared the proportional representation of understory trees (1-2 cm dbh) among these classes. The understory of the three Asian sites was predominantly composed of the saplings of large-canopy trees whereas the African and American sites were more richly stocked with trees of the smaller SAM classes. Differences in class representation were related to taxonomic families that were present exclusively in one continent or another. Families found in the Asian plots but not in the American plot (e.g., Dipterocarpaceae, Fagaceae) were predominantly species of the largest SAM classes, whereas families exclusive to the American plots (e.g., Melastomataceae sensu stricto, Piperaceae, and Malvaceae [Bombacacoidea]) were predominantly species of small classes. The African plot was similar to Asia in the absence of those American families rich in understory species, while similar to America in lacking the Asian families rich in canopy species. The numerous understory species of Africa were chiefly derived from families shared with Asia and/or America. The ratio of saplings (1-2 cm dbh) to conspecific canopy trees (>40 cm dbh) was lower in American plots than in the Asian plots. Possible explanations for these differences include phenology, moisture and soil fertility regimes, phyletic constraints, and the role of early successional plants in forest development. These results demonstrate that tropical forests that appear similar in tree number, basal area, and the family taxonomy of canopy trees nonetheless differ in ecological structure in ways that may impact the ecology of pollinators, dispersers, and herbivores and might reflect fundamental differences in canopy tree regeneration.

Assessing evidence for a pervasive alteration in tropical tree communities

In Amazonian tropical forests, recent studies have reported increases in aboveground biomass and in primary productivity, as well as shifts in plant species composition favouring fast-growing species over slow-growing ones. This pervasive alteration of mature tropical forests was attributed to global environmental change, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrient deposition, temperature, drought frequency, and/or irradiance. We used standardized, repeated measurements of over 2 million trees in ten large (16-52 ha each) forest plots on three continents to evaluate the generality of these findings across tropical forests. Aboveground biomass increased at seven of our ten plots, significantly so at four plots, and showed a large decrease at a single plot. Carbon accumulation pooled across sites was significant (+0.24 MgC ha(-1) y(-1), 95% confidence intervals [0.07, 0.39] MgC ha(-1) y(-1)), but lower than reported previously for Amazonia. At three sites for which we had data for multiple census intervals, we found no concerted increase in biomass gain, in conflict with the increased productivity hypothesis. Over all ten plots, the fastest-growing quartile of species gained biomass (+0.33 [0.09, 0.55] % y(-1)) compared with the tree community as a whole (+0.15 % y(-1)); however, this significant trend was due to a single plot. Biomass of slow-growing species increased significantly when calculated over all plots (+0.21 [0.02, 0.37] % y(-1)), and in half of our plots when calculated individually. Our results do not support the hypothesis that fast-growing species are consistently increasing in dominance in tropical tree communities. Instead, they suggest that our plots may be simultaneously recovering from past disturbances and affected by changes in resource availability. More long-term studies are necessary to clarify the contribution of global change to the functioning of tropical forests.

Species diversity in local neutral communities

We extend the neutral theory of macroecology by deriving biodiversity models (relative species abundance and species-area relationships) in a local community-metacommunity system in which the local community is embedded within the metacommunity. We first demonstrate that the local species diversity patterns converge to that of the metacommunity as the size (scale) of the embedded local community increases. This result shows that in continuous landscapes no sharp boundaries dividing the communities at the two scales exist; they are an artificial distinction made by the current spatially implicit neutral theory. Second, we remove the artificial restriction that speciation cannot occur in a local community, even if the effects of local speciation are small. Third, we introduce stochasticity into the immigration rate, previously treated as constant, and demonstrate that local species diversity is a function not only of the mean but also of the variance in immigration rate. High variance in immigration rates reduces species diversity in local communities. Finally, we show that a simple relationship exists between the fundamental diversity parameter of neutral theory and Simpson's index for local communities. Derivation of this relationship extends recent work on diversity indices and provides a means of evaluating the effect of immigration on estimates of the fundamental diversity parameter derived from relative species abundance data on local communities.

Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests

Although patterns of tree species distributions along environmental gradients have been amply documented in tropical forests, mechanisms causing these patterns are seldom known. Efforts to evaluate proposed mechanisms have been hampered by a lack of comparative data on species' reactions to relevant axes of environmental variation. Here we show that differential drought sensitivity shapes plant distributions in tropical forests at both regional and local scales. Our analyses are based on experimental field assessments of drought sensitivity of 48 species of trees and shrubs, and on their local and regional distributions within a network of 122 inventory sites spanning a rainfall gradient across the Isthmus of Panama. Our results suggest that niche differentiation with respect to soil water availability is a direct determinant of both local- and regional-scale distributions of tropical trees. Changes in soil moisture availability caused by global climate change and forest fragmentation are therefore likely to alter tropical species distributions, community composition and diversity.

Soil nutrients influence spatial distributions of tropical tree species

The importance of niche vs. neutral assembly mechanisms in structuring tropical tree communities remains an important unsettled question in community ecology [Bell G (2005) Ecology 86:1757-1770]. There is ample evidence that species distributions are determined by soils and habitat factors at landscape (<10(4) km(2)) and regional scales. At local scales (<1 km(2)), however, habitat factors and species distributions show comparable spatial aggregation, making it difficult to disentangle the importance of niche and dispersal processes. In this article, we test soil resource-based niche assembly at a local scale, using species and soil nutrient distributions obtained at high spatial resolution in three diverse neotropical forest plots in Colombia (La Planada), Ecuador (Yasuni), and Panama (Barro Colorado Island). Using spatial distribution maps of >0.5 million individual trees of 1,400 species and 10 essential plant nutrients, we used Monte Carlo simulations of species distributions to test plant-soil associations against null expectations based on dispersal assembly. We found that the spatial distributions of 36-51% of tree species at these sites show strong associations to soil nutrient distributions. Neutral dispersal assembly cannot account for these plant-soil associations or the observed niche breadths of these species. These results indicate that belowground resource availability plays an important role in the assembly of tropical tree communities at local scales and provide the basis for future investigations on the mechanisms of resource competition among tropical tree species.

Neutral theory and the evolution of ecological equivalence

Since the publication of the unified neutral theory in 2001, there has been much discussion of the theory, pro and con. The hypothesis of ecological equivalence is the fundamental yet controversial idea behind neutral theory. Assuming trophically similar species are demographically alike (symmetric) on a per capita basis is only an approximation, but it is equivalent to asking: How many of the patterns of ecological communities are the result of species similarities, rather than of species differences? The strategy behind neutral theory is to see how far one can get with the simplification of assuming ecological equivalence before introducing more complexity. In another paper, I review the empirical evidence that led me to hypothesize ecological equivalence among many of the tree species in the species-rich tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI). In this paper, I develop a simple model for the evolution of ecological equivalence or niche convergence, using as an example evolution of the suite of life history traits characteristic of shade tolerant tropical tree species. Although the model is simple, the conclusions from it seem likely to be robust. I conclude that ecological equivalence for resource use are likely to evolve easily and often, especially in species-rich communities that are dispersal and recruitment limited. In the case of the BCI forest, tree species are strongly dispersal- and recruitment-limited, not only because of restricted seed dispersal, but also because of low recruitment success due to heavy losses of the seedling stages to predators and pathogens and other abiotic stresses such as drought. These factors and the high species richness of the community strongly reduce the potential for competitive exclusion of functionally equivalent or nearly equivalent species.

Demographic spatial genetic structure of the Neotropical tree, Jacaranda copaia

We used genotypes from six microsatellite loci and demographic data from a large mapped forest plot to study changes in spatial genetic structure across demographic stages, from seed rain to seedlings, juveniles, and adult diameter classes in the Neotropical tree, Jacaranda copaia. In pairwise comparisons of genetic differentiation among demographic classes, only seedlings were significantly differentiated from the other diameter classes; F(ST) values ranged from 0.006 to 0.009. Furthermore, only seedlings showed homozygote excess suggesting biparental inbreeding in the large diameter reproductive adults. We found very low levels of relatedness in the first distance class of trees, 1-26 cm diameter (F(ij) = 0.011). However, there was a 5- to 10-fold rise in relatedness in the smallest distance class, from the smallest to the largest tree diameter classes (F(ij) = 0.110 for individuals > 56 cm diameter). A variety of non-mutually exclusive mechanisms have been invoked perviously to explain such a pattern, including natural selection, history, or nonequilibrium population dynamics. The long-term demographic data available for this species allow us to evaluate these mechanisms. Jacaranda is a fast-growing, light-demanding species with low recruitment rates and high mortality rates in the smaller diameter classes. It successfully regenerates only in large light gaps, which occur infrequently and stochastically in space and time. These factors contribute to the nonequilibrium population dynamics and observed low genetic structure in the small size classes. We conclude that the pattern of spatial genetic transitions in Jacaranda is consistent with overlapping related generations and strong but infrequent periods of high recruitment, followed by long periods of population decline.

The phylogenetic structure of a neotropical forest tree community

Numerous ecological and evolutionary processes are thought to play a role in maintaining the high plant species diversity of tropical forests. An understanding of the phylogenetic structure of an ecological community can provide insights into the relative importance of different processes structuring that community. The objectives of this study were to measure the phylogenetic structure of Neotropical forest tree communities in the Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to determine how the phylogenetic structure of tree communities varied among spatial scales and habitats within the FDP, and to study the effects of null-model choice on estimates of community phylogenetic structure. We measured community phylogenetic structure for tree species occurring together in quadrats ranging in size from 10 x 10 m to 100 X 100 m in the FDP. We estimated phylogenetic structure by comparing observed phylogenetic distances among species to the distribution of phylogenetic distances for null communities generated using two different null models. A null model that did not maintain observed species occurrence frequencies tended to find nonrandom community phylogenetic structure, even for random data. Using a null model that maintained observed species frequencies in null communities, the average phylogenetic structure of tree communities in the FDP was close to random at all spatial scales examined, but more quadrats than expected contained species that were phylogenetically clustered or overdispersed, and phylogenetic structure varied among habitats. In young forests and plateau habitats, communities were phylogenetically clustered, meaning that trees were more closely related to their neighbors than expected, while communities in swamp and slope habitats were phylogenetically overdispersed, meaning that trees were more distantly related to their neighbors than expected. Phylogenetic clustering suggests the importance of environmental filtering of phylogenetically conserved traits in young forests and plateau habitats, but the phylogenetic overdispersion observed in other habitats has several possible explanations, including variation in the strength of ecological processes among habitats or the phylogenetic history of niches, traits, and habitat associations. Future studies will need to include information on species traits in order to explain the variation in phylogenetic structure among habitats in tropical forests.

Genetic evidence of frequent long-distance recruitment in a vertebrate-dispersed tree

The importance of dispersal for the maintenance of biodiversity, while long-recognized, has remained unresolved. We used molecular markers to measure effective dispersal in a natural population of the vertebrate-dispersed Neotropical tree, Simarouba amara (Simaroubaceae) by comparing the distances between maternal parents and their offspring and comparing gene movement via seed and pollen in the 50 ha plot of the Barro Colorado Island forest, Central Panama. In all cases (parent-pair, mother-offspring, father-offspring, sib-sib) distances between related pairs were significantly greater than distances to nearest possible neighbours within each category. Long-distance seedling establishment was frequent: 74% of assigned seedlings established > 100 m from the maternal parent [mean = 392 +/- 234.6 m (SD), range = 9.3-1000.5 m] and pollen-mediated gene flow was comparable to that of seed [mean = 345.0 +/- 157.7 m (SD), range 57.6-739.7 m]. For S. amara we found approximately a 10-fold difference between distances estimated by inverse modelling and mean seedling recruitment distances (39 m vs. 392 m). Our findings have important implications for future studies in forest demography and regeneration, with most seedlings establishing at distances far exceeding those demonstrated by negative density-dependent effects.