Minimum viable populations: is there a 'magic number' for conservation practitioners?

Establishing species conservation priorities and recovery goals is often enhanced by extinction risk estimates. The need to set goals, even in data-deficient situations, has prompted researchers to ask whether general guidelines could replace individual estimates of extinction risk. To inform conservation policy, recent studies have revived the concept of the minimum viable population (MVP), the population size required to provide some specified probability of persistence for a given period of time. These studies conclude that long-term persistence requires ≥5000 adult individuals, an MVP threshold that is unaffected by taxonomy, life history or environmental conditions. Here, we re-evaluate this suggestion. We find that neither data nor theory supports its general applicability, raising questions about the utility of MVPs for conservation planning.

Two-species occupancy models: a new parameterization applied to co-occurrence of secretive rails

Two-species occupancy models that account for false absences provide a robust method for testing for evidence of competitive exclusion, but previous model parameterizations were inadequate for incorporating covariates. We present a new parameterization that is stable when covariates are included: the conditional two-species occupancy model, which can be used to examine alternative hypotheses for species' distribution patterns. This new model estimates the probability of occupancy for a subordinate species conditional upon the presence of a dominant species. It can also be used to test if the detection of either species differs when one or both species are present, and if detection of the subordinate species depends on the detection of the dominant species when both are present. We apply the model to test if the presence of the larger Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) affects probabilities of detection or occupancy of the smaller California Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus) in small freshwater marshes that range in size from 0.013 to 13.99 ha. We hypothesized that Black Rail occupancy should be lower in small marshes when Virginia Rails are present than when they are absent, because resources are presumably more limited and interference competition should increase. We found that Black Rail detection probability was unaffected by the detection of Virginia Rails, while, surprisingly, Black and Virginia Rail occupancy were positively associated even in small marshes. The average probability of Black Rail occupancy was higher when Virginia Rails were present (0.74 +/- 0.053, mean +/- SE) than when they were absent (0.36 +/- 0.069), and for both species occupancy increased with marsh size. Our results contrast with recent findings from patchy forest systems, where small birds were presumed to be excluded from small habitat patches by larger competitors.

Genetic analyses of historic and modern marbled murrelets suggest decoupling of migration and gene flow after habitat fragmentation

The dispersal of individuals among fragmented populations is generally thought to prevent genetic and demographic isolation, and ultimately reduce extinction risk. In this study, we show that a century of reduction in coastal old-growth forests, as well as a number of other environmental factors, has probably resulted in the genetic divergence of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in central California, despite the fact that 7 per cent of modern-sampled murrelets in this population were classified as migrants using genetic assignment tests. Genetic differentiation appears to persist because individuals dispersing from northern populations contributed relatively few young to the central California population, as indicated by the fact that migrants were much less likely to be members of parent-offspring pairs than residents (10.5% versus 45.4%). Moreover, a recent 1.4 per cent annual increase in the proportion of migrants in central California, without appreciable reproduction, may have masked an underlying decline in the resident population without resulting in demographic rescue. Our results emphasize the need to understand the behaviour of migrants and the extent to which they contribute offspring in order to determine whether dispersal results in gene flow and prevents declines in resident populations.

Differential deposition of antimicrobial proteins in blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) clutches by laying order and male attractiveness

Female birds can influence offspring fitness by varying the relative quantities of egg components they deposit within and between clutches. Antimicrobial proteins (lysozyme, ovotransferrin, and avidin) are significant components of the avian albumen and likely aid in defense of embryos from microbial infection. Within clutches, females may enhance antimicrobial defense of early-laid eggs to protect them from the high risk of infection incurred before the onset of incubation. Among entire clutches, females may invest more resources in young sired by more attractive males because they have higher reproductive value. We tested these hypotheses by quantifying antimicrobial protein distribution within and among clutches in blue tit eggs. Contrary to our hypothesis, clutches showed no differential deposition of lysozyme or avidin within clutches, but eggs laid in the middle of the sequence had higher concentrations of ovotransferrin than eggs in the beginning and end. Consistent with our second hypothesis, we found that females produced eggs with higher concentrations of lysozyme (although not ovotransferrin or avidin) when mated to more attractive (more UV-reflective) males. Furthermore, females mated to polygynous males deposited less lysozyme than those mated to monogamous males. These data suggest that allocation of lysozyme at the clutch level may be a maternal effect mediated by male qualities.

Predation and infanticide influence ideal free choice by a parrot occupying heterogeneous tropical habitats

The ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts that organisms will disperse to sites that maximize their fitness based on availability of resources. Habitat heterogeneity underlies resource variation and influences spatial variation in demography and the distribution of populations. We relate nest site productivity at multiple scales measured over a decade to habitat quality in a box-nesting population of Forpus passerinus (green-rumped parrotlets) in Venezuela to examine critical IFD assumptions. Variation in reproductive success at the local population and neighborhood scales had a much larger influence on productivity (fledglings per nest box per year) than nest site or female identity. Habitat features were reliable cues of nest site quality. Nest sites with less vegetative cover produced greater numbers of fledglings than sites with more cover. However, there was also a competitive cost to nesting in high-quality, low-vegetative cover nest boxes, as these sites experienced the most infanticide events. In the lowland local population, water depth and cover surrounding nest sites were related with F. passerinus productivity. Low vegetative cover and deeper water were associated with lower predation rates, suggesting that predation could be a primary factor driving habitat selection patterns. Parrotlets also demonstrated directional dispersal. Pairs that changed nest sites were more likely to disperse from poor-quality nest sites to high-quality nest sites rather than vice versa, and juveniles were more likely to disperse to, or remain in, the more productive of the two local populations. Parrotlets exhibited three characteristics fundamental to the IFD: habitat heterogeneity within and between local populations, reliable habitat cues to productivity, and active dispersal to sites of higher fitness.

Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change

In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change.

Characterizing dispersal patterns in a threatened seabird with limited genetic structure

Genetic assignment methods provide an appealing approach for characterizing dispersal patterns on ecological time scales, but require sufficient genetic differentiation to accurately identify migrants and a large enough sample size of migrants to, for example, compare dispersal between sexes or age classes. We demonstrate that assignment methods can be rigorously used to characterize dispersal patterns in a marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) population from central California that numbers approximately 600 individuals and is only moderately differentiated (F(ST) approximately 0.03) from larger populations to the north. We used coalescent simulations to select a significance level that resulted in a low and approximately equal expected number of type I and II errors and then used this significance level to identify a population of origin for 589 individuals genotyped at 13 microsatellite loci. The proportion of migrants in central California was greatest during winter when 83% of individuals were classified as migrants compared to lower proportions during the breeding (6%) and post-breeding (8%) seasons. Dispersal was also biased toward young and female individuals, as is typical in birds. Migrants were rarely members of parent-offspring pairs, suggesting that they contributed few young to the central California population. A greater number of migrants than expected under equilibrium conditions, a lack of individuals with mixed ancestry, and a small number of potential source populations (two), likely allowed us to use assignment methods to rigorously characterize dispersal patterns for a population that was larger and less differentiated than typically thought required for the identification of migrants.

Avian incubation inhibits growth and diversification of bacterial assemblages on eggs

Microbial infection is a critical source of mortality for early life stages of oviparous vertebrates, but parental defenses against infection are less well known. Avian incubation has been hypothesized to reduce the risk of trans-shell infection by limiting microbial growth of pathogenic bacteria on eggshells, while enhancing growth of commensal or beneficial bacteria that inhibit or competitively exclude pathogens. We tested this hypothesis by comparing bacterial assemblages on naturally incubated and experimentally unincubated eggs at laying and late incubation using a universal 16S rRNA microarray containing probes for over 8000 bacterial taxa. Before treatment, bacterial assemblages on individual eggs from both treatment groups were dissimilar to one another, as measured by clustering in non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination space. After treatment, assemblages of unincubated eggs were similar to one another, but those of incubated eggs were not. Furthermore, assemblages of unincubated eggs were characterized by high abundance of six indicator species while incubated eggs had no indicator species. Bacterial taxon richness remained static on incubated eggs, but increased significantly on unincubated eggs, especially in several families of Gram-negative bacteria. The relative abundance of individual bacterial taxa did not change on incubated eggs, but that of 82 bacterial taxa, including some known to infect the interior of eggs, increased on unincubated eggs. Thus, incubation inhibits all of the relatively few bacteria that grow on eggshells, and does not appear to promote growth of any bacteria.

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to a variety of assumptions that are difficult to meet or to apply to evolutionary timescales. Furthermore, such methods cannot be rigorously applied to high-gene-flow species. Here, we employ genetic parentage assignments in conjunction with demographic simulations to infer the level of immigration into a putative sink population. We use individual-based demographic models to estimate expected distributions of parent-offspring dyads under competing sink and closed-population models. By comparing the actual number of parent-offspring dyads (identified from multilocus genetic profiles) in a random sample of individuals taken from a population to expectations under these two contrasting demographic models, it is possible to estimate the rate of immigration and test hypotheses related to the role of immigration on population processes on an ecological timescale. The difference in the expected number of parent-offspring dyads between the two population models was greatest when immigration into the sink population was high, indicating that unlike traditional population genetic inference models, the highest degree of statistical power is achieved for the approach presented here when migration rates are high. We used the proposed genetic parentage approach to demonstrate that a threatened population of Marbled Murrelets (Braclhyrarmphus marmotus) appears to be supplemented by a low level of immigration (approximately 2-6% annually) from other populations.

RECONSTRUCTING THE HISTORIC DEMOGRAPHY OF AN ENDANGERED SEABIRD

Reducing extinction risk for threatened species requires determining which demographic parameters are depressed and causing population declines. Museum collections may constitute a unique, underutilized resource for measuring demographic changes over long time periods using age-ratio analysis. We reconstruct the historic demography of a U.S. federally endangered seabird, the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), from specimens collected approximately 100 years ago for comparison with predictions from comparative analyses and with results from contemporary field studies using both age-ratio analysis and conventional demographic estimators. Reproduction in the late 1800s and early 1900s matched predictions from comparative analysis, but was 8-9 times greater than contemporary estimates, whereas adult survival was unchanged. Historic reproductive rates would support stable populations, but contemporary levels should result in population declines. Contemporary demographic estimates derived from age-ratio analysis were similar to estimates from conventional estimators. Using museum specimens to reconstruct historic demography provides a unique approach to identify causes of decline and to set demographic benchmarks for recovery of endangered species that meet most assumptions of age-ratio analysis.

Combining demographic and count-based approaches to identify source-sink dynamics of a threatened seabird

Identifying source-sink dynamics is of fundamental importance for conservation but is often limited by an inability to determine how immigration and emigration influence population processes. We demonstrate two ways to assess the role of immigration on population processes without directly observing individuals dispersing from one population to another and apply these methods to a population of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in California (USA). In the first method, the rate of immigration (i) is estimated by subtracting local recruitment (recruitment from within the population due to reproduction) estimated with demographic data from total recruitment (f; recruitment from within the population plus recruitment from other populations) estimated using temporal symmetry mark-recapture models developed by R. Pradel. The second method compares population growth rates estimated with temporal symmetry models (lambdaTS) and/or population growth rates estimated from counts of individuals over multiple sampling periods (lambdaC) with growth estimates from a stage-structured projection matrix model (lambdaM). Both lambdaTS and lambdaC incorporate all demographic processes affecting population change (birth, death, immigration, and emigration), whereas matrix models are usually constructed without incorporating immigration. Thus, if lambdaTS and lambdaC are > or = 1 and lambdaM < 1, the population is sustained by immigration and is considered to be a sink. Using the first method, recruitment estimated with temporal symmetry models was high (f= 0.182, SE = 0.058), the mean adult birth rate, as estimated using the ratio of juveniles to > or = 1 year old individuals (observed during ship-based surveys) was low (bA = 0.039, SE = 0.014), and immigration was 0.160 (SE = 0.057). Using the second method, murrelet numbers in central California were stable (lambdaC = 1.058, SE = 0.047; lambdaTS = 1.064, SE = 0.033), but were projected to decline 9.5% annually in the absence of immigration (lambdaM = 0.905, SE = 0.053). Our results suggest that Marbled Murrelets in central California represent a sink population that is stable but would decline in the absence of immigration from larger populations to the north. However, the extent to which modeled immigration is due to permanent recruitment or temporarily dispersing individuals that simply mask population declines is uncertain.

Centennial decline in the trophic level of an endangered seabird after fisheries decline

Coastal marine ecosystems worldwide have undergone such profound transformations from over-fishing that trophic interactions observed today might be artifacts of these changes. We determined whether the trophic level of an endangered seabird, the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), has declined over the past 100 years after the collapse of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sadax) fisheries in the late 1940s and the recent declines of similar fisheries in central California. We compared stable-isotope signatures of delta15N and delta13C in feathers of museum specimens collected before fisheries decline with values in murrelet feathers collected recently. Values of delta15N in prebreeding diets declined significantly, 1.4 per thousand or 38% of a trophic level, over the past century during cool ocean conditions and by 0.5 per thousand during warm conditions, whereas postbreeding values of delta15N were nearly constant. The delta13C values in prebreeding diets declined by 0.8 per thousand, suggesting an increased importance of krill in modern compared with historic prebreeding diets, but postbreeding diets did not change. Stable-isotope mixing models indicated that the proportion of energetically superior high-trophic-level prey declined strongly whereas energetically poor low-trophic-level and midtrophic-level prey increased in the prebreeding diet in cool years when murrelet reproduction was likely to be high. Decreased prey resources have caused murrelets to fish further down on the food web, appear partly responsible for poor murrelet reproduction, and may have contributed to its listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Egg mass in an asynchronously hatching parrot: does variation offset constraints imposed by laying order?

Life history theory predicts phenotypic trade-offs between the number and quality of offspring produced. Intraspecific variation in egg mass is common in birds and increased egg size can have positive effects on offspring fitness. However, evidence of a trade-off with clutch size is limited. We analyzed variation in mass of 5,743 Green-rumped parrotlet (Forpus passerinus) eggs laid over 15 years to evaluate the potential for facultative adjustment of egg mass and factors governing variation. Heavier eggs had an increased probability of both hatching and fledging but egg mass did not affect postfledging recruitment. Offspring egg mass differed between populations and the potential for seasonal adjustment to egg mass may be related to environmental factors such as seed density. Egg mass was moderately heritable (h2 = 0.42) which accounts for some of the individual variation detected, and these results are likely attributable to strong maternal effects. We found an effect of female age on egg mass, but no effects of previous reproductive experience. Finally, egg mass was strongly governed by position within the laying sequence, independent of clutch size, and such adjustment may facilitate brood reduction under some conditions in this highly asynchronous species.