Detection of Cross-Correlation between Gravitational Lensing and γ Rays

In recent years, many γ-ray sources have been identified, yet the unresolved component hosts valuable information on the faintest emission. In order to extract it, a cross-correlation with gravitational tracers of matter in the Universe has been shown to be a promising tool. We report here the first identification of a cross-correlation signal between γ rays and the distribution of mass in the Universe probed by weak gravitational lensing. We use data from the Dark Energy Survey Y1 weak lensing data and the Fermi Large Area Telescope 9-yr γ-ray data, obtaining a signal-to-noise ratio of 5.3. The signal is mostly localized at small angular scales and high γ-ray energies, with a hint of correlation at extended separation. Blazar emission is likely the origin of the small-scale effect. We investigate implications of the large-scale component in terms of astrophysical sources and particle dark matter emission.

HIV testing strategies outside of health care settings in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA): a systematic review to inform European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control guidance

OBJECTIVES

In recent years, new technologies and new approaches to scale up HIV testing have emerged. The objective of this paper was to synthesize the body of recent evidence on strategies aimed at increasing the uptake and coverage of HIV testing outside of health care settings in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA).

METHODS

Systematic searches to identify studies describing effective HIV testing interventions and barriers to testing were run in five databases (2010-2017) with no language restrictions; the grey literature was searched for similar unpublished studies (2014-2017). Study selection, data extraction and critical appraisal were performed by two independent reviewers following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

Eighty studies on HIV testing in non-health care settings were identified, the majority set in Northern Europe. Testing was implemented in 65 studies, with men who have sex with men the risk group most often targeted. Testing coverage and positivity/reactivity rates varied widely by setting and population group. However, testing in community and outreach settings was effective at reaching people who had never previously been tested and acceptability of HIV testing, particularly rapid testing, outside of health care settings was found to be high. Other interventions aimed to increase HIV testing identified were: campaigns (n = 8), communication technologies (n = 2), education (n = 3) and community networking (n = 1).

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified several strategies with potential to achieve high HIV testing coverage outside of health care settings. However, the geographical spread of studies was limited, and few intervention studies reported before and after data, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of interventions on test coverage.

HIV testing strategies employed in health care settings in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA): evidence from a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Despite the availability of HIV testing guidelines to facilitate prompt diagnosis, late HIV diagnosis remains high across Europe. The study synthesizes recent evidence on HIV testing strategies adopted in health care settings in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA).

METHODS

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed and systematic searches were run in five databases (2010-2017) to identify studies describing HIV testing interventions in health care settings in the EU/EEA. The grey literature was searched for unpublished studies (2014-2017). Two reviewers independently performed study selection, data extraction and critical appraisal.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty intervention and/or feasibility studies on HIV testing in health care settings were identified. Interventions included testing provision (n = 94), campaigns (n = 14) and education and training for staff and patients (n = 20). HIV test coverage achieved through testing provision varied: 2.9-94% in primary care compared to 3.9-66% in emergency departments. HIV test positivity was lower in emergency departments (0-1.3%) and antenatal services (0-0.05%) than in other hospital departments (e.g. inpatients: 0-5.3%). Indicator condition testing programmes increased HIV test coverage from 3.9-72% before to 12-85% after their implementation, with most studies reporting a 10-20% increase. There were 51 feasibility and/or acceptability studies that demonstrated that HIV testing interventions were generally acceptable to patients and providers in health care settings (e.g. general practitioner testing acceptable: 77-93%).

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified several strategies that could be adopted to achieve high HIV testing coverage across a variety of health care settings and populations in the EU/EEA. Very few studies compared the intervention under investigation to a baseline, but, where this was assessed, data suggested increases in testing.

Dissociable dopaminergic and pavlovian influences in goal-trackers and sign-trackers on a model of compulsive checking in OCD

RATIONALE

Checking is a functional behaviour that provides information to guide behaviour. However, in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), checking may escalate to dysfunctional levels. The processes underpinning the transition from functional to dysfunctional checking are unclear but may be associated with individual differences that support the development of maladaptive behaviour. We examined one such predisposition, sign-tracking to a pavlovian conditioned stimulus, which we previously found associated with dysfunctional checking. How sign-tracking interacts with another treatment with emerging translational validity for OCD-like checking, chronic administration of the dopamine D₂ receptor agonist quinpirole, is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We tested how functional and dysfunctional checking in the rat observing response task (ORT) was affected by chronic quinpirole administration in non-autoshaped controls and autoshaped animals classified as sign-trackers or goal-trackers.

METHODS

Sign-trackers or goal-trackers were trained on the ORT before the effects of chronic quinpirole administration on checking were assessed. Subsequently, the effects on checking of different behavioural challenges, including reward omission and the use of unpredictable reinforcement schedules, were tested.

RESULTS

Prior autoshaping increased checking. Sign-trackers and goal-trackers responded differently to quinpirole sensitization, reward omission and reinforcement uncertainty. Sign-trackers showed greater elevations in dysfunctional checking, particularly during uncertainty. By contrast, goal-trackers predominantly increased functional checking responses, possibly in response to reduced discrimination accuracy in the absence of cues signalling which lever was currently active.

CONCLUSIONS

The results are discussed in terms of how pavlovian associations influence behaviour that becomes compulsive in OCD and how this may be dependent on striatal dopamine D₂ receptors.

Kangaroo father care to reduce paternal stress levels: A prospective observational before-after study

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to assess stress in fathers of preterm infants and use of "Kangaroo Father Care (KFC)" to mitigate it.

STUDY DESIGN

Stress levels of 30 fathers of preterm infants admitted in the NICU were assessed using the parental stressor scale: neonatal intensive care unit (PSS: NICU) before and after three sessions of KFC. The data was analysed using Wilcoxon signed rank sum test.

RESULT

There was a statistically significant reduction in stress levels after KFC (p = 0.006). Amongst all the four subscales, stress levels were found to be reduced in 'staff behaviour and communication' (p = 0.001) domain and 'baby looks and behaves' domain (p = 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Fathers of preterm infants admitted in the NICU experience a lot of stress, which can adversely affect their mental health. Kangaroo care is very effective in reducing this paternal stress levels.

Detection of CMB-Cluster Lensing using Polarization Data from SPTpol

We report the first detection of gravitational lensing due to galaxy clusters using only the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The lensing signal is obtained using a new estimator that extracts the lensing dipole signature from stacked images formed by rotating the cluster-centered Stokes QU map cutouts along the direction of the locally measured background CMB polarization gradient. Using data from the SPTpol 500  deg^{2} survey at the locations of roughly 18 000 clusters with richness λ≥10 from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year-3 full galaxy cluster catalog, we detect lensing at 4.8σ. The mean stacked mass of the selected sample is found to be (1.43±0.40)×10^{14}M_{⊙} which is in good agreement with optical weak lensing based estimates using DES data and CMB-lensing based estimates using SPTpol temperature data. This measurement is a key first step for cluster cosmology with future low-noise CMB surveys, like CMB-S4, for which CMB polarization will be the primary channel for cluster lensing measurements.

Patterns of hysterectomy in India: a national and state-level analysis of the Fourth National Family Health Survey (2015-2016)

Objective

The National Family Health Survey‐4 in India provided the first nationally representative estimates of hysterectomy among women aged 15–49. This paper aims to examine the national and state‐level age‐specific prevalence of hysterectomy, individual and household level factors associated with the procedure, and state‐level indicators that may explain variation across states.

Design

Cross‐sectional, nationally representative household survey.

Setting

National Family Health Survey was conducted across all Indian states and union territories between 2015 and 2016.

Population

The survey covered 699 686 women between the ages of 15 and 49 years.

Methods

Descriptive analyses and multivariate logistic regression.

Main outcome measures

Women who reported ever having a hysterectomy and age at hysterectomy.

Results

Age‐specific prevalence of hysterectomy was 0.36% (0.33,0.39) among women aged 15‐29; 3.59% (3.45,3.74) among women aged 30‐39; and 9.20% (8.94,9.46) among women 40‐49 years. There was considerable variation in prevalence by state. Four states reported age‐specific prevalence similar to high‐income settings. Approximately two‐thirds of hysterectomies were conducted in private facilities, with similar patterns across age groups. At the national level, higher age and parity (at least two children); not having had formal schooling; rural residence (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.36; 95% CI 1.27,1.45; P < 0.01) and higher wealth status were associated with higher odds of hysterectomy. Previously sterilised women had lower odds (AOR 0.64; 95% CI 0.61,0,68; P < 0.01) of reporting hysterectomy. Exploratory analyses suggest state‐level factors associated with prevalence of hysterectomy include caesarean section, female illiteracy, and women's employment.

Conclusions

Hysterectomy patterns among women aged 15–49 in India indicate the critical need to ensure treatment options for gynaecological morbidity and to address hysterectomy among young women in particular.

Funding

This study was part of the RASTA initiative of the Population Council's India country office under the Evidence Project supported by USAID.

Tweetable abstract

Hysterectomy patterns in India highlight the need for alternatives to treat gynaecological morbidity among younger women.

Hysterectomy patterns in India highlight the need for alternatives to treat gynaecological morbidity among younger women.

Integrative Genomics Reveals the Genetics and Evolution of the Honey Bee's Social Immune System

Social organisms combat pathogens through individual innate immune responses or through social immunity—behaviors among individuals that limit pathogen transmission within groups. Although we have a relatively detailed understanding of the genetics and evolution of the innate immune system of animals, we know little about social immunity. Addressing this knowledge gap is crucial for understanding how life-history traits influence immunity, and identifying if trade-offs exist between innate and social immunity. Hygienic behavior in the Western honey bee, Apis mellifera, provides an excellent model for investigating the genetics and evolution of social immunity in animals. This heritable, colony-level behavior is performed by nurse bees when they detect and remove infected or dead brood from the colony. We sequenced 125 haploid genomes from two artificially selected highly hygienic populations and a baseline unselected population. Genomic contrasts allowed us to identify a minimum of 73 genes tentatively associated with hygienic behavior. Many genes were within previously discovered QTLs associated with hygienic behavior and were predictive of hygienic behavior within the unselected population. These genes were often involved in neuronal development and sensory perception in solitary insects. We found that genes associated with hygienic behavior have evidence of positive selection within honey bees (Apis), supporting the hypothesis that social immunity contributes to fitness. Our results indicate that genes influencing developmental neurobiology and behavior in solitary insects may have been co-opted to give rise to a novel and adaptive social immune phenotype in honey bees.

Cosmological Constraints from Multiple Probes in the Dark Energy Survey

The combination of multiple observational probes has long been advocated as a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, in particular dark energy. The Dark Energy Survey has measured 207 spectroscopically confirmed type Ia supernova light curves, the baryon acoustic oscillation feature, weak gravitational lensing, and galaxy clustering. Here we present combined results from these probes, deriving constraints on the equation of state, w, of dark energy and its energy density in the Universe. Independently of other experiments, such as those that measure the cosmic microwave background, the probes from this single photometric survey rule out a Universe with no dark energy, finding w=-0.80_{-0.11}^{+0.09}. The geometry is shown to be consistent with a spatially flat Universe, and we obtain a constraint on the baryon density of Ω_{b}=0.069_{-0.012}^{+0.009} that is independent of early Universe measurements. These results demonstrate the potential power of large multiprobe photometric surveys and pave the way for order of magnitude advances in our constraints on properties of dark energy and cosmology over the next decade.

An Eye Opener: Lessons Learnt in Retinoblastoma Awareness and Screening Program

Background: Retinoblastoma is most common intraocular malignancy of infancy. Globally screening is recommended for ‘at risk’ children. Despite knowing this, Indian Cancer Society undertook general screening at behest of a corporate donor. Scenario in India is challenging as children at rural, urban slums are not routinely screened for any of eye disease. ICS implemented the pilot project among underprivileged children with primary aim of spreading awareness and improve the ocular health. Though expected outcome was zero retinoblastoma suspect cases; based on past projects it was expected that other eye conditions like squint, cataract etc. would be identified in a few. Aim: To screen 4500 children below 4 years of age at Indian rural and suburban slum areas. To create awareness about retinoblastoma and other eye conditions in community. Methods: Locations were identified where literacy, awareness, immunization coverage were low. Partners were selected a team of experts (ocular oncologists, pediatric ophthalmologists, optometrists, paramedical staff) were deployed for implementation. For awareness, all parents coming for the immunization, Aaganwadis and preschools etc. were given a talk on the importance of child eye screening and various disease which can be detected and prevented through simple eye examination. Special community level programs planned to create awareness about retinoblastoma and early childhood eye screening. Brochures and pamphlets were to be given in the vernacular language of the region. Screening for retinoblastoma was planned in 2 phases, those found to have positive red reflex in stage 1 are subjected to dilation, after obtaining consent from the parents. Proformas were filled in and treatment was given as per the pediatric eye disease identified. Results: In 5 months 2450 children were screened, at tribal area and in suburban slum areas. Awareness sessions were conducted for 348 mothers in batches at the tribal area and similarly for mothers and teachers at Anganwadi, schools. None of the parents/teachers were aware about cancer of eye. A thorough eye check-up was done based on the suggestions of the American Association of Pediatric eye diseases and special attention was given to tests such as Bruckners test. Number of children suspected of retinoblastoma was nil, however, 6% children were found to have other eye conditions such as congenital cataract, corneal opacity, refractive errors, squints and ptosis in the tribal area and project is ongoing in suburban area. Treatment was given as per the protocol for same. Conclusion: Screening for retinoblastoma for not at risk children is not recommended. Main aim for implementing retinoblastoma awareness program is to integrate it with immunization or nutritional program in India. This would ensure standardized ocular care. Challenges are numerous, such as lack of infrastructure, poor literacy rates, low income levels. Yet, innovative strategies are needed for better impact of awareness programs.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del Rio A, Logan A, Collier H, Rishton C, Whalley G, Ali A, Ramtoola S, Quattrin T, Mastrandea L, House A, Ecker M, Huang C, Gougeon C, Ho J, Pacuad D, Dunger D, May J, O’Brien C, Acerini C, Salgin B, Thankamony A, Williams R, Buse J, Fuller G, Duclos M, Tricome J, Brown H, Pittard D, Bowlby D, Blue A, Headley T, Bendre S, Lewis K, Sutphin K, Soloranzo C, Puskaric J, Madison H, Rincon M, Carlucci M, Shridharani R, Rusk B, Tessman E, Huffman D, Abrams H, Biederman B, Jones M, Leathers V, Brickman W, Petrie P, Zimmerman D, 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Manning P, Hendry G, Taylor B, Jones S, Couch R, Danchak R, Lieberman D, Strader W, Bencomo M, Bailey T, Bedolla L, Roldan C, Moudiotis C, Vaidya B, Anning C, Bunce S, Estcourt S, Folland E, Gordon E, Harrill C, Ireland J, Piper J, Scaife L, Sutton K, Wilkins S, Costelloe M, Palmer J, Casas L, Miller C, Burgard M, Erickson C, Hallanger-Johnson J, Clark P, Taylor W, Galgani J, Banerjee S, Banda C, McEowen D, Kinman R, Lafferty A, Gillett S, Nolan C, Pathak M, Sondrol L, Hjelle T, Hafner S, Kotrba J, Hendrickson R, Cemeroglu A, Symington T, Daniel M, Appiagyei-Dankah Y, Postellon D, Racine M, Kleis L, Barnes K, Godwin S, McCullough H, Shaheen K, Buck G, Noel L, Warren M, Weber S, Parker S, Gillespie I, Nelson B, Frost C, Amrhein J, Moreland E, Hayes A, Peggram J, Aisenberg J, Riordan M, Zasa J, Cummings E, Scott K, Pinto T, Mokashi A, McAssey K, Helden E, Hammond P, Dinning L, Rahman S, Ray S, Dimicri C, Guppy S, Nielsen H, Vogel C, Ariza C, Morales L, Chang Y, Gabbay R, Ambrocio L, Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.