Action on Invasive Species: Control Strategies of Parthenium hysterophorus L. on Smallholder Farms in Kenya

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) is an invasive alien weed with detrimental effects on agricultural production, biodiversity, human and animal health, threating rural livelihoods in Asia and Africa. The problem emerged recently in the Kenyan Rift Valley, where it began to affect the landholdings of both agro-pastoralists and crop farmers. These vulnerable smallholders depend heavily on natural resources for their livelihoods. In this study, we assessed the severity of parthenium invasion and farmers' management responses using a sample of 530 agro-pastoralists in Baringo County, Kenya, in 2019. We hypothesise that the implementation of existing management strategies depends on the state of parthenium invasion and household socio-economic characteristics. The prevalence and severity of parthenium invasion differed greatly among field plots. To control weeds, farmers resort to either hand weeding, the use of synthetic herbicides, or intensive tillage, sometimes in combination with mulching. A multivariate probit regression model shows that households' characteristics determine the type of control strategies used as well as their complementarity and substitutability. Hand weeding is the most common option, adopted by almost 40% of farmers. The use of agrochemicals or soil-based control strategies appears to be related to knowledge and information characteristics such as access to extension services, membership in organisations and the educational level of household heads. While hand weeding and the use of synthetic herbicides depict significant substitutability, the latter strategy is limited to a few larger farms with market-oriented production. As parthenium invasion continues, policies need to improve farmer awareness and access to knowledge to enable pro-poor and environmentally sustainable control of parthenium on smallholder farms.

Conversion of grassland to cropland altered soil nitrogen-related microbial communities at large scales

Land-use changes may dramatically disturb underground microbial biodiversity, especially in the fragile ecological areas. However, the impact of conversion of grassland to cropland on soil nitrogen (N)-related microbial communities is not fully understood in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China. Therefore, 24 paired grassland and cropland soil samples were collected in this region to investigate the community structure and assembly processes of soil N-related microorganisms via amplicon sequencing of nifH, archaeal and bacterial amoA, and nxrB genes. The results showed higher ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) alpha diversity but a lower nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) diversity in cropland soil compared to grassland soil. Non-metric multidimensional scaling ordinations revealed that diazotroph, AOB and NOB communities differed considerably between grassland and cropland soil. Soil microbial co-occurrence networks showed that conversion of grassland to cropland significantly lowered the average degree, average clustering coefficient, total nodes and links, resulting in less complex microbial networks in cropland soil. Land-use change altered AOB community assembly processes, resulting from a stochasticity-dominated process in grassland soil to a determinism-dominated process in cropland soil. In contrast, deterministic processes were dominant in diazotroph community assembly, whereas stochastic processes were dominant in constructing ammonia-oxidizing archaea and NOB communities in both grassland and cropland soil. These results provide novel evidence that the conversion of grassland to cropland altered the diversity and assembly processes of soil microbial communities involved in soil N-cycling processes, which has important implications for the potential changes in soil functions under land-use changes.

Soil microbial stoichiometry and community structure responses to long-term natural forest conversion to plantations in a subtropical region

Soil microbial stoichiometry reflects carbon (C) and nutrient (e.g., nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) elemental balances under land-use change (LUC). However, how soil microbial community (SMC) structure and stoichiometry respond to long-term LUC in forests is still unclear. Here, we investigated three 36-year-old typical plantations, Cryptomeria fortunei, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Cunninghamia lanceolata, and the natural forest to assess their soil microbial stoichiometry and SMC structure. Three plots (30×30 m²) were randomly set in each forest site. In each plot of every forest site, soil samples of three depths (0-10, 10-30, and 30-60 cm) were collected. Dissolved organic C, N, and P (abbreviated as DOC, DON, and DOP, respectively) and environmental factors were measured. We also detected microbial biomass C, N, and P as well as SMC structure. The results showed that the soil microbial C:N:P stoichiometry had a strong or strict homeostasis regardless of soil depth and exhibited decoupling from the SMC structure at each depth. The SMC structure across forest types was mainly driven by mean annual soil temperature (MAST) and DOC at 0-10 cm depth, by soil water content and MAST at 10-30 cm depth, and by DOC to DOP ratio at 30-60 cm depth. Thus, SMC structure could be jointly regulated by available resources and environment. These results suggest that the C dynamics in forests tend to gain resilience or re-equilibrium over more than three decades after forest conversion. These findings highlight the importance of reforested plantations forest management for sustaining soil C over a long term.

Afforestation influences soil organic carbon and its fractions associated with aggregates in a karst region of Southwest China

Variations in soil organic carbon (SOC) and its fractions within soil aggregates in response to land-use change are important to understand the carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystem. However, responses of total SOC, SOC fractions, and SOC stability in different soil aggregates to land-use change are less addressed, especially in karst regions with serious land degradation. Therefore, bulk soil samples were collected under four land uses with similar geographical characteristics and previous framing practices including farmland (FL), Bamboo forest (BA), landscape tree planting (LAT), and orange orchards (ORO) in a karst region of Southwest China. Contents of total SOC and three carbon fractions based on their degree of oxidizability (F1, very labile; F2, inert; F3, oxidizable resistant) in bulk soil and different soil aggregates (macro-aggregate, micro-aggregate, and silt+clay fraction) were measured. Afforestation significantly increased contents of total SOC and three carbon fractions in bulk soil and soil aggregates, and the influence was more obvious in macro-aggregate than the other aggregates. Contents of total SOC, F1, F2, and F3 under afforestation land increased by 41.73%, 58.19%, 33.91%, and 40.55%, respectively, in bulk soil, by 55.60%, 79.24%, 121.77%, and 43.30%, respectively, in macro-aggregate, by 52.80%, 33.57%, 20.14%, and 75.02%, respectively, in micro-aggregate, and by 26.21%, 35.60%, 29.26%, and 23.75%, respectively, in silt+clay fraction than those under FL. In bulk soil and soil aggregates, proportions of F1, F2, and F3 in total SOC ranged from 0.11 to 0.18, from 0.13 to 0.22, and from 0.60 to 0.73, respectively, suggesting that the stable carbon was the predominant carbon fraction in the study area. Afforestation decreased the values of stability of SOC in macro-aggregate and silt+clay fraction, while it increased the value in micro-aggregate. Although both BA and ORO had higher SOC content in bulk soil than the LAT, but the SOC stability in bulk soil under BA was significantly lower than that under ORO. In conclude, afforestation form FL improved SOC content and altered SOC stability in bulk soil and soil aggregates, and conversion of FL to ORO might be the best choice to increase SOC sequestration in the four land-use types compared in karst regions of Southwest China.

Fluxes of H2S and SO2 above a subtropical forest under natural and disturbed conditions induced by temporal land-use change

Hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) is one of predominant biogenic sulfur gases, influencing aerosol formation and climate change. There is considerable uncertainty of the global budget of H₂S due to limited field data, especially in subtropical forests. In addition, an interaction between soil-emitted H₂S and ambient sulfur dioxide (SO₂) might exist within forest ecosystems. In this study, the aerodynamic gradient method was applied to consecutively measure H₂S and SO₂ fluxes above a subtropical forest canopy in Southwest China under natural and disturbed conditions induced by temporal land-use changes. The average H₂S concentration and flux under natural conditions were 0.79 ± 0.07 ppbv and 0.04 ± 0.01 g S m^-2 yr^-1, respectively. The emission was larger than that in most croplands and freshwater wetlands. Vegetation emissions might account for about 26% of the total forest H₂S emissions at this site. The deposition of SO₂ was likely balanced by H₂S oxidization under the forest canopy, with the mean concentration and net flux as 1.23 ± 0.11 ppbv and -0.03 ± 0.10 g S m^-2 yr^-1, respectively. Under disturbed conditions with soils excavation and scattering on the forest floor, simultaneously high emissions of H₂S and SO₂ were observed above the canopy, reaching 5.78 ± 0.16 and 1.60 ± 0.87 g S m^-2 yr^-1, respectively. This suggested that land-use change in subtropical forests might lead to release of legacy S in subsoils to the atmosphere in the form of H₂S and SO₂. Regarding the widely documented large S accumulation and expanding deforestation across subtropical forests, potentially high emissions of H₂S and SO₂ from subtropical forests should be carefully considered in regional air quality control and forest management.

A new soil sampling design method using multi-temporal and spatial data fusion

The distribution of soil pollutants is receiving increasing attention. The accurate determination of the soil pollution distribution in an area is becoming more important. To date, many soil quality surveys have already been carried out in China, and the use of these surveys to reflect soil pollution is worth examining. This article provides an example of the application of combined two-phase data to assess soil contamination in a region. Based on data acquired during two soil sampling phases in 2005 and 2015, we chose a typical watershed in southeast China as the study area. We analysed the data using spatial interpolation analysis, compared the results, and extracted points to perform point combination based on site conditions. Ultimately, these analyses allowed us to develop a new method involving the use of multi-period data to evaluate the soil quality on a regional scale. In the ten years from 2005 to 2015, apparent changes in soil pollution occurred. We found that the area with no change in soil pollution accounts for 46.98% of the total basin and the area demonstrating a soil pollution increase accounts for 47.25% of the total basin, while the area exhibiting a soil pollution reduction only accounts for 5.78% of the whole area. The average accuracy of the combined points increased to 89% from 76 and 81%. The analysis of the land-use types and spatial locations during the two periods revealed no direct relationship between the soil contamination changes and the changes in the total number of land-use types, but a correlation was observed with the intensity of human activities at the spatial locations. This paper proposes a new method for the spatial assessment of soil pollution based using multiple periods of existing data on the above analysis.

Effects of agricultural landscape structure, insecticide residues, and pollen diversity on the life-history traits of the red mason bee Osmia bicornis

Agricultural landscapes have changed substantially in recent decades, shifting from the dominance of small fields (S) with diverse cropping systems toward large-scale monoculture (L), where landscape heterogeneity disappears. In this study, artificial nests of the red mason bee, Osmia bicornis, were placed in S and L landscape types on the perimeter of oilseed rape fields representing different oilseed rape coverages (ORC, % land cover). The local landscape structure around each nest was characterised within a 100, 200, 500, and 1000 m radius using ORC and 14 landscape characteristics, which were then reduced by non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) to two axes: nMDS1 characterised the dataset primarily according to land fragmentation and the main crop, whereas nMDS2 captured the prevalence of more natural areas in the landscape. Pollen diversity and insecticide risk levels in the pollen provisions collected by the bees were analysed, and their dependence on the landscape structure was tested. Thereafter, the effects of pollen diversity, insecticide risk, and landscape structure on the life-history traits of bees and their sensitivity to topically applied Dursban 480 EC were determined. Pollen taxa richness in a single nest ranged from 3 to 12, and 34 pesticides were detected in the pollen at concentrations of up to 320 ng/g for desmedipham. The O. bicornis foraging range was relatively large, indicating that the landscape structure within a radius of ~1000 m around the nest is important for this species. Pollen diversity in the studied areas was of minor importance for bee performance, but the ORC or landscape structure significantly affected the life-history traits of the bees. Contamination of pollen with insecticides affected the bees by decreasing the mass of newly emerged adults but their sensitivity to Dursban 480 EC was not related to environmental variables.

Evaluation of Water Provision Ecosystem Services Associated with Land Use/Cover and Climate Variability in the Winike Watershed, Omo Gibe Basin of Ethiopia

The provision of freshwater is essential for sustaining human life. Understanding the water provision modelling associated with the Land Use/Cover (LUC) change and climatic factors is vital for landscape water resource management. The Winike watershed is the largest tributary in the upper Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia. This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal change in the water yield to investigate the water yield contribution from the watershed based on the variation in input parameters. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Tool (InVEST) water yield model was used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of the water yield in different years (1988, 1998, 2008 and 2018). The data required for this model include LUC data from satellite images, reference evapotranspiration, root depth, plant available water, precipitation, season factor (Z), and a biophysical table. The analysis of LUC change shows a rapid conversion of grazing land, shrubland, and forest land into cultivated land. There has been a significant variation in water provision, which increased from 1.83 × 10⁹ m³ in 1988 to 3.35 × 10⁹ m³ in 2018. Sub-watersheds 31, 32, and 39 in the eastern part of the watershed contributed more water due to higher precipitation and lower reference evapotranspiration. The major increase in the contribution of water yield was in built-up land by 207.4%, followed by bare land, 148.54%, and forest land by 63%. Precipitation had a greater impact on water yield estimation compared with the other input parameters. Hence, this research helps decision-makers to make informed decisions regarding new policies for LUC change improvement to maintain the water resources in the Winike watershed.

Integral analysis of environmental and economic performance of combined agricultural intensification & bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region

Agricultural intensification is a key strategy to help meet increasing demand for food and bioenergy. It has the potential to reduce direct and indirect land use change (LUC) and associated environmental impacts while contributing to a favorable economic performance of the agriculture sector. We conduct an integral analysis of environmental and economic impacts of LUC from projected agricultural intensification and bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region in 2030. We compare three agricultural intensification scenarios (low, medium, high) and a reference scenario, which assumes a business-as-usual development of agricultural production. The results show that with current inefficient management or with only very little intensification between 26% and 93% of the existing natural vegetation areas will be converted to agricultural land to meet increasing food demand. This results in the loss of biodiversity by 53% and increased water consumption by 111%. In the medium and high scenarios, the intensification allows meeting increased food demand within current agricultural lands and even generating surplus land which can be used to produce bioenergy crops. This results in the reduction of biodiversity loss by 8-13% with medium and high levels of intensification compared to the situation in 2018. Also, a positive economic performance is observed, stemming primarily from intensification of cattle production and additional energy crop production. Despite increasing irrigation efficiency in more intensive production systems, the water demand for perennial crops and cattle production over the dry season increases significantly, thus sustainable management practices that target efficient water use are needed. Agricultural productivity improvements, particularly for cattle production, are crucial for reducing the pressure on natural areas from increasing demand for both food products and bioenergy. This implies targeted investments in the agricultural sector and integrated planning of land use. Our results showed that production intensification in the Orinoquia region is a mechanism that could reduce the pressure on natural land and its associated environmental and economic impacts.

Balancing the push and pull factors of land-use change: a New Zealand case study

New Zealand is increasingly facing environmental and social challenges associated with its current land-use choices. There is therefore a drive to find ways to continue to add value to its primary sectors, which are of significant economic value to the country whilst at the same time mitigating the externalities associated with the use of land in primary production. Next-generation systems (NGS) are identified as potentially being able to address these challenges. Through the application of a multi-criteria decision making tool, this paper identifies the factors that are important to individual land managers in terms of choice of land-use and how these factors may act as barriers or facilitators of change. By examining land-use change as a combination of push and pull factors between alternative systems, this paper highlights the complex and context specific nature of decision-making at the individual land-manager level and the importance of risk perceptions. It argues that simply pushing land managers away from land-uses that have "undesirable" characteristics through regulation is unlikely to lead to a sustainable transition without the existence of viable alternatives. There is a need to balance increasing the risk of current land-uses whilst at the same time reducing the risk of transitioning to next-generation systems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01865-0.

Significance of using dynamic land-use data and its threshold in hydrology and water quality simulation models

Land-use changes have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle and non-point source (NPS) pollution discharge and transport. Thus, using dynamic land-use inputs in the simulation models is important. However, there is currently no clear standard for which situation the land-use data should be updated in the models. In this study, we quantified the impacts of land-use change on hydrological and NPS pollution simulation outputs, and analyzed the thresholds for land-use change level and time nodes. The results indicated that the error caused by land-use change had a linear relationship with the land-use change level. The total nitrogen (TN) output error was the most sensitive to land-use change, with a gradient of 0.73. The impact of land-use change on the model outputs was different at different temporal scales. Flow and TN had the highest output errors at a daily scale, while sediment had the highest output error at an annual scale. The threshold analysis results revealed that the land-use change thresholds for the flow, sediment, and TN simulations were 40%, 30%, and 10%, respectively. When the land-use change level exceeded the threshold, the model simulation error increased dramatically. The land-use change time node would also affect the simulation performance, especially for TN. This study initially explored the quantified standard for land-use data updates in the SWAT model. The results could be useful for improving the simulation accuracy of the SWAT model and may provide ideas for follow-up studies.

The effects of climate variability and land-use change on streamflow and nutrient loadings in the Sesan, Sekong, and Srepok (3S) River Basin of the Lower Mekong Basin

This paper aimed at examining the climate variability and land-use change effects on streamflow and pollutant loadings, namely total suspended sediment (TSS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P), in the Sesan, Sekong, and Srepok (3S) River Basin in the period 1981-2010. The well-calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for this purpose. Compared to the reference period, climate variability was found to be responsible to a 1.00% increase in streamflow, 2.91% increase in TSS loading, 11.35% increase in T-N loading, and 19.12% reduction in T-P loading for the whole basin. With regard to the effect of land-use change (LUC), streamflow, TSS, T-N, and T-P loadings increased by 0.01%, 3.70%, 10.12%, and 10.94%, respectively. Therefore, the combination of climate variability and LUC showed amplified increases in streamflow (1.03%), TSS loading (7.09%), and T-N loading (25.05%), and a net effect of decreased T-P loading (10.35%). Regarding the Sekong and Srepok River Basins, the streamflow, TSS, T-N and T-P showed stronger responses to climate variability compared to LUC. In case of the Sesan River Basin, LUC had an effect on water quantity and quality more strongly than the climate variability. In general, the findings of this work play an essential role in providing scientific information to effectively support decision makers in developing sustainable water resources management strategies in the study area.

Linking soil organic carbon stock to microbial stoichiometry, carbon sequestration and microenvironment under long-term forest conversion

Forest conversion can drastically impact carbon (C) and nutrient processes and microbial stoichiometry, which will modify soil organic C (SOC) stock. However, SOC stock dynamics and its underlying mechanisms induced by long-term forest conversion remain unclear. Three well-protected plantations converted from natural forests for 36 years were compared, i.e., Cryptomeria fortunei (CF), Metasequoia glyptostroboides (MG) and Cunninghamia lanceolata (CL), with a natural forest (NF) as a control. SOC stock size and stability across three soil depths (0-10, 10-30 and 30-60 cm) were examined with aggregate-based method. Forest floors and fine roots were treated as C and nutrient inputs while soil respiration (Rs) was treated as C output. Soil microbial biomass C, nitrogen and phosphorus were measured to calculate microbial stoichiometry, as well as microenvironment and soil physicochemical properties. The relationships between SOC stock (size and stability) and these factors were explored using structural equation model. The results showed that microbial stoichiometry had strong or strict homeostasis at each soil depth. At 0-10 cm soil deep, SOC stock size varied with tree species (following the rank of CL > NF ≈ CF > MG) but its stability increased in all forest conversion types, regulated by forest floor quantity and quality associated with Rs; at 10-30 cm soil deep, the SOC stock sizes decreased in CF and MG, but SOC stock stability increased in MG, jointly driven by fine root quality and microenvironment; at 30-60 cm soil deep, SOC stock size decreased but its stability increased in MG, whereas both its size and stability had few changes in CF or CL, modified by soil physicochemical property associated with microbial stoichiometry and Rs. Overall, the effects of microbial stoichiometry and microenvironment on SOC stock were not pronounced. Thus, SOC stock size changed with soil depth and tree species but its stability tended to be steady at all depths varying with tree species. These results suggest that SOC stock size and stability are mainly determined by self-regulation process of forest ecosystems over more than three-decade after forest conversion, which will help us more accurately assess C sequestration strategies regarding long-term forest conversion.

Land use intensity determines soil properties and biomass recovery after abandonment of agricultural land in an Amazonian biodiversity hotspot

There has been widespread clearance of tropical forests for agriculture, but in many cases the cultivation phase is only transient. The secondary forests recovering on these abandoned sites may contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and protection of biodiversity, but the rates of recovery may be dependent on land-use intensity and changes in soil properties during cultivation. However fine-scale details on these changes are poorly known for many tropical forest locations. We quantified soil properties and recovery of woody biomass in 42 tropical forest fragments representing a chronosequence following two types of agricultural land-uses, and in 15 comparable reference old growth forests, between the Andes and the Amazon in Peru. Soil fertility, particularly base cation concentrations, responded negatively to increasing intensity of agricultural land-use, and either decreased or increased with time after abandonment dependent on prior land-use. The predicted mean recovery rate of woody biomass over the first 20 years following abandonment matched that predicted by a general model for the Neotropics, but recovery was three-fold higher on sites abandoned following traditional agriculture than on sites recovering from intensive agriculture. Estimated total biomass recovered to just above half that of reference old growth forests within 71 years. The inclusion of the biomass of lianas and smaller tree stems did not modify the apparent rate of ecosystem biomass recovery, however the proportion of the total biomass stored in small stems was greater following intensive than traditional agriculture, which suggests that patterns of stand structural development are sensitive to land-use history. We conclude that effects of historic land use on soil nutrient concentrations and their changes through time are required for a more complete interpretation of variation in biomass recovery rates at local scales. These results also highlight the critical importance of contemporary agricultural intensification for carbon storage in tropical forests.

Resilient planning optimization through spatially explicit, Bi-directional sociohydrological modeling

Stormwater runoff is one critical urban issue that exemplifies the complexity in coupling human and natural systems. Innumerable studies have described and assessed the hydrological responses that result from land-use changes through a 'post land use change' hydrological analysis. Complex systems theory, however, suggests that the urban and ecological systems operate as an intertwined whole. This means that typical one-directional analysis can miss critical components of a bi-directional sociohydrological process. In addition, there is a difference in physical scales between hydrological analysis and policymaking that is often left unresolved. Typical hydrological models are limited to a watershed and are not easily applied to policymaking that is generally demarcated by a political boundary. These types of models also lack the spatial explicitness needed for physical design responses. To address these issues, we develop an integrated, finely scaled, spatially explicit sociohydrological modeling system. The coupled land use/stormwater model projects and assesses bi-directional sociohydrological impacts to changing land uses. We apply and test the system in McHenry County, Illinois, by modeling three scenarios to the year 2045. The results show that residential and commercial developments exhibit different responses to hydrological variables, resulting in varying patterns of land use locational choices. We also find that there is a conflict between developmental preferences that prefer to be located near water (housing) and those that prefer to be located away from runoff-prone water areas (commercial land uses). Our bi-directional modeling system simulates cell-to-cell interactions to produce quantifiable and practically useful outputs. The output for McHenry County, Illinois, includes specific, locational information on how to optimize developmental regulations in response to the contradictory developmental preferences and, more importantly, how to live with runoff in the context of resilience. This research supports the need for cell-based forward-looking modeling to better understand complex urban systems and strategically establish a resilient built environment.

Woody species diversity and land-use change legacy: Dataset across Uruguay

The presented datasets relate to the research article entitled “Beyond the boundaries: Do spatio-temporal trajectories of land-use change and cross boundary effects shape the diversity of woody species in Uruguayan native forests?” [Ramírez and Säumel 10.1016/j.agee.2021.107646]. The datasets include field survey data on woody species diversity from 32 permanent plots of native forests across the Oriental Republic of Uruguay (South America). Based on land-use maps created with Landsat images we analysed the changes of percentage of cover, the landscape shape index and aggregation index of the different land-use types (i.e., native forest, grassland, timber plantation and crops) in a buffer of 3 km from the central point of each plot. Datasets were produced using ArcGIS and different R and Fragstat packages. Data on woody species diversity, land-use change history inform landscape planning, land-use management, policy and governance and can be used for further meta-analysis with other local, regional or global data sets.

Mapping the spatial and temporal variability of flood hazard affected by climate and land-use changes in the future

The predicts current and future flood risk in the Kalvan watershed of northwestern Markazi Province, Iran. To do this, 512 flood and non-flood locations were identified and mapped. Twenty flood-risk factors were selected to model flood risk using several machine learning techniques: conditional inference random forest (CIRF), the gradient boosting model (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and their ensembles. To investigate the future (year 2050) effects of changing climates and changing land use on future flood risk, a general circulation model (GCM) with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios by 2050 was tested for impacts on 8 precipitation variables. In addition, future land uses in 2050 was prepared using a CA-Markov model. The performances of the flood risk models were validated with Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under Curve (ROC-AUC) and other statistical analyses. The AUC value of the ROC curve indicates that the ensemble model had the highest predictive power (AUC = 0.83) and was followed by GBM (AUC = 0.80), XGB (AUC = 0.79), and CIRF (AUC = 0.78). The results of climate and land use changes on future flood-prone areas showed that the areas classified as having moderate to very high flood risk will increase by 2050. Due to the changes occurring with land uses and in climates, the area classified as moderate to very high risk increased in the predictions from all four models. The areal proportion classes of the risk zones in 2050 under the RCP 2.6 scenario using the ensemble model have changed of the following proportions from the current distribution Very Low = -12.04 %, Low = -8.56 %, Moderate = +1.56 %, High = +11.55 %, and Very High = +7.49 %. The RCP 8.5 scenario has caused the following changes from the present percentages: Very Low = -14.48 %, Low = -6.35 %, Moderate = +4.54 %, High = +10.61 %, and Very High = +5.67 %. The results of current and future flood risk mapping can aid planners and flood hazard managers in their efforts to mitigate impacts.

Land use planning to support climate change adaptation in threatened plant communities

Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change. This research was focused on a local government area in New South Wales, Australia, that is undergoing significant residential, commercial and agricultural expansion resulting in the transition of native forest to other more intensive land-uses. Our results indicate that the key drivers of change from native vegetation to urban and agriculture classes were population density and the proximity to urban areas. We found two of the most cleared vegetation community types are physically restricted to land owned or managed by council, suggesting their long-term ecological viability is uncertain under a warming climate. We propose that land use planning decisions must recognize the compounding spatial and temporal pressures of urban development, land clearing and climate change, and how current policy responses, such as biodiversity offsetting, can respond positively to habitat shifts in order to secure the longevity of important ecological communities.

Land-use change influence soil quality parameters at an ecologically fragile area of YongDeng County of Gansu Province, China

Dry ecosystems, despite their relative levels of aridity, are very diverse, and play a vital role in the livelihoods of many dryland inhabitants. It is therefore critical to investigate the relationship between land-use change and soil quality parameters to offer a scientific basis for optimizing land-use planning and improving soil quality status in dry ecosystems and ecologically vulnerable areas. This study, therefore, analyzed the physicochemical properties of soils in five different land-use types namely farmland, abandoned farmland, natural grassland, artificial lemon forest, and poplar woodland at YongDeng County. The soil quality status of the aforementioned land-use types was also evaluated through Principal component analysis. The results revealed that abandoned farmland and natural grassland recorded the highest average values of soil coarse particles of 24.0% and 23.4% respectively compared to the other land-use types. The highest average value (46.1%) of fine soil particles was recorded in poplar woodland followed by natural grassland (36.6%) and the average value of very fine soil particles was higher in farmland (40.8%) and artificial lemon woodland (38.3%) than in the other land-use types. The average value of clayey particles was highest in farmland (11.1%), followed by artificial lemon woodland (9.3%), and abandoned farmland (6.5%), then poplar woodland which recorded an average value of (4.2%). The average values of Soil water content, soil pH, soil electrical conductivity, and soil total nitrogen content were significantly higher in farmland compared to the other land-use types. Soil organic carbon content was significantly higher in abandoned farmland at (P < 0.03) and lemon woodland at (P < 0.01) than in farmlands, natural grasslands, and poplar stands. The soil quality indicators of the different land-use types were significantly correlated with each other. Among them, the correlation coefficient of each evaluation index was highest in poplar woodland, followed by natural grassland, lower in farmland and artificial lemon woodland, and lowest in abandoned farmland. The overall soil quality scores were in the following order: farmland > abandoned farmland > 0 > grassland > lemon woodland > poplar woodland. In the study area, the soil quality of farmland that has been finely managed and naturally restored to grassland following abandonment is superior, whereas the soil quality of natural grassland, artificial lemon woodland, and poplar forest land is substandard. The comprehensive analysis of soil quality demonstrates that conservation tillage and fine management of water-irrigated farmland, as well as the natural conversion of abandoned farmland to grassland, can significantly improve the soil quality of sandy soils, reduce water and soil loss, increase fertility, and gradually improve regional ecological environmental conditions.

Comparative cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of bio-based and petrochemical PET bottles

This article presents a life cycle assessment of bio-based polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles with a cradle to grave scope and provides a comparison with petrochemical PET bottles for 13 environmental impact categories. Besides the baseline bio-based PET bottles, which are produced from Brazilian sugarcane reflecting status-quo, two alternative hypothetical bio-based product systems were considered: European wheat straw and European crops market mix composed of maize, wheat and sugar beet. The land-use change (LUC) impacts were assessed based on a deterministic model. The end-of-life impact was assessed using the EASETECH model. Baseline bio-based PET bottles performed overall worse than conventional petrochemical PET bottles, offering only better performance (about 10%) in abiotic depletion (fossil fuels). Comparable performance is observed for climate change (2% difference without the LUC, and 7% with LUC impacts). Using European crops for ethanol production (alternative 1) instead of Brazilian sugarcane resulted in a worse environmental performance, due to lower yields attained compared to Brazilian sugarcane. When wheat straw was considered as biomass feedstock for ethanol production (alternative 2), similar environmental performance with petrochemical PET bottles was seen.

Wildlife-friendly food requires a multi-stakeholder approach to deliver landscape-scale biodiversity conservation in the Satoyama landscape of Japan

Many global biodiversity hotspots have been cultivated for food for centuries and their unique agrobiodiversity is now under threat from land-use conversion, land abandonment or agricultural intensification. Wildlife-friendly farming (WFF) certification is a market-based approach that aims to alleviate the threats through charging a premium over conventional food products. This study explores the economic demand for WFF to protect biodiversity and maintain traditional rice cultivation in the Satoyama landscape of Japan by quantifying the price differential for key attributes of a landscape scale WFF scheme using choice experiments with consumers. A novel component of this study was to combine the choice experiment data with qualitative interviews with stakeholders together with observational and participatory approaches to identify underlying motivations for purchase decisions and to assess using a mixed methods approach the potential of WFF schemes to support landscape scale conservation and rural development. We found that consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) for organic rice was the highest, with a premium of 2937 JPY (26.83 USD) compared to non-organic rice. Respondents were also willing to pay more for all rice that conserves individual target species, with WTP for bird species the highest and for rice produced specifically in the traditional Satoyama landscapes. Although a WFF-Satoyama programme would bring public benefits and support rural livelihoods we suggest there are several challenges to widespread adoption that include an ageing farming population, a lack of appropriate business skills and technical capacity, and obstacles arising from Japanese land use policies concerning forestry and hunting.

Comparative cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of bio-based and petrochemical PET bottles

This article presents a life cycle assessment of bio-based polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles with a cradle to grave scope and provides a comparison with petrochemical PET bottles for 13 environmental impact categories. Besides the baseline bio-based PET bottles, which are produced from Brazilian sugarcane reflecting status-quo, two alternative hypothetical bio-based product systems were considered: European wheat straw and European crops market mix composed of maize, wheat and sugar beet. The land-use change (LUC) impacts were assessed based on a deterministic model. The end-of-life impact was assessed using the EASETECH model. Baseline bio-based PET bottles performed overall worse than conventional petrochemical PET bottles, offering only better performance (about 10%) in abiotic depletion (fossil fuels). Comparable performance is observed for climate change (2% difference without the LUC, and 7% with LUC impacts). Using European crops for ethanol production (alternative 1) instead of Brazilian sugarcane resulted in a worse environmental performance, due to lower yields attained compared to Brazilian sugarcane. When wheat straw was considered as biomass feedstock for ethanol production (alternative 2), similar environmental performance with petrochemical PET bottles was seen.

Agricultural land-use change exacerbates the dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes via surface runoffs in Lake Tai Basin, China

Agricultural runoff is an important antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) dissemination pathway from farmlands to water environment, however few studies have focused on the influence of agricultural land-use change on the pattern of ARGs in runoff and assess the health risk to public. Lake Tai Basin which experiences agricultural land-use change was selected to elucidate this concern. Our findings revealed that the pattern of ARGs was more diverse and the gene abundance was higher in orchard runoffs by comparison with conventional cropland runoffs. Co-occurrence network analysis between mobile genetic elements and ARGs demonstrated that after agricultural land-use change, ARG dissemination via runoffs became more threatened. In addition, this study illustrated the correlations between the antibiotic resistome and microbiome in runoffs, finding that non-dominant microbial taxa were the limiting factor which determined the pattern of ARGs in surface runoffs. In summary, the pattern and dissemination risk of ARGs in the surface runoff after agricultural land-use change in Lake Tai Basin were clarified via this study.

Transformation of coffee-growing landscapes across Latin America. A review

In Latin America, the cultivation of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) plays a critical role in rural livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development. Over the last 20 years, coffee farms and landscapes across the region have undergone rapid and profound biophysical changes in response to low coffee prices, changing climatic conditions, severe plant pathogen outbreaks, and other drivers. Although these biophysical transformations are pervasive and affect millions of rural livelihoods, there is limited information on the types, location, and extent of landscape changes and their socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Here we review the state of knowledge on the ongoing biophysical changes in coffee-growing regions, explore the potential socioeconomic and ecological impacts of these changes, and highlight key research gaps. We identify seven major land-use trends which are affecting the sustainability of coffee-growing regions across Latin America in different ways. These trends include (1) the widespread shift to disease-resistant cultivars, (2) the conventional intensification of coffee management with greater planting densities, greater use of agrochemicals and less shade, (3) the conversion of coffee to other agricultural land uses, (4) the introduction of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) into areas not previously cultivated with coffee, (5) the expansion of coffee into forested areas, (6) the urbanization of coffee landscapes, and (7) the increase in the area of coffee produced under voluntary sustainability standards. Our review highlights the incomplete and scattered information on the drivers, patterns, and outcomes of biophysical changes in coffee landscapes, and lays out a detailed research agenda to address these research gaps and elucidate the effects of different landscape trajectories on rural livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and other aspects of sustainable development. A better understanding of the drivers, patterns, and consequences of changes in coffee landscapes is vital for informing the design of policies, programs, and incentives for sustainable coffee production.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-021-00712-0.

Why a landscape view is important: nearby urban and agricultural land affects bird abundances in protected areas

Protected areas are one of the primary conservation tools used worldwide. However, they are often embedded in a landscape that is intensely used by people, such as for agriculture or urban development. The proximity of these land-use types to protected areas can potentially affect the ecological effectiveness (or conservation effectiveness) of protected areas. In this article, we examine to what degree adjacent agricultural and urban land uses affect the ecological effectiveness of protected areas over the greater Gauteng region of South Africa. We selected 198 common, resident bird species, and analysed detection/non-detection data for these species collected over regular grid cells (approximately 61 km² in area). For each species, we estimated abundance per grid cell with the Royle-Nichols model in relation to the proportion of protected area as a covariate. Our study focused on how this relationship between proportion of protected area and abundance (which we term the ‘protection–abundance relationship’) changed as a function of other land-use types in the grid cell. Specifically, we examined the interaction effects between protected area and both urban and agricultural land-use type per grid cell on bird abundance. We assigned each species to one of seven guilds, namely: frugivores, gleaners, granivores, ground-feeders, hawkers, predators and vegivores, and examined how the protection–abundance relationship varied across guilds in relation to agriculture and urban area. As urban area within a grid cell increased, the protection–abundance relationship became more positive for 58% of all species. At the level of guilds, the protection–abundance relationship became more positive for two guilds (granivores and ground-feeders), more negative for frugivores, and remained unchanged for the other four guilds (gleaners, hawkers, predators and vegivores). As agricultural area within a grid cell increased, the protection–abundance relationship became more positive for 49% of all species. At the guild level, the protection–abundance relationship became more positive for six guilds (frugivores, gleaners, ground-feeders, hawkers, predators and vegivores) and remained unchanged for the granivores. Our results show land-use type near protected areas modified the effect protected areas had on bird abundances, and hence the ecological effectiveness of protected areas. Our results suggest that protected areas should be viewed as constituents within the landscape, rather than islands of protection.