Estimated glomerular filtration rate is an easy predictor of venous thromboembolism in cancer patients undergoing platinum-based chemotherapy

Reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been associated with increased venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk in the general population. VTE incidence significantly increases in cancer patients, especially those undergoing chemotherapy. Despite the evidence that a substantial number of cancer patients have unrecognized renal impairment, as indicated by reduced eGFR in the presence of serum creatinine levels within the reference value, chemotherapy dosage is routinely adjusted for serum creatinine values. Among chemotherapies, platinum-based regimens are associated with the highest rates of VTE. A cohort study was designed to assess the value of pretreatment eGFR in the risk prediction of a first VTE episode in cancer outpatients without previous history of VTE who were scheduled for platinum-based chemotherapy. Methods. Serum creatinine and eGFR were evaluated before the start of standard platinum-based chemotherapy in a cohort of 322 consecutive patients with primary or relapsing/recurrent solid cancers, representative of a general practice population. Results. Patients who experienced a first VTE episode in the course of chemotherapy had lower mean eGFR values compared with patients who remained VTE free. Multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated that eGFR had an independent value for risk prediction of a first VTE episode during treatment, with a 3.15 hazard ratio. Indeed, 14% of patients with reduced eGFR had VTE over 1-year follow-up compared with 6% of patients with normal eGFR values. Conclusion. The results suggest that reductions in eGFR, even in the presence of normal serum creatinine, are associated with an increased VTE risk in cancer outpatients undergoing platinum-based chemotherapy regimens. Determining eGFR before chemotherapy could represent a simple predictor of VTE, at no additional cost to health care systems.

The prognostic and risk-stratified value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in septic patients in the emergency department

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prognostic and risk-stratified ability of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) in septic patients in the emergency department (ED).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From August to November 2012, 295 consecutive septic patients were enrolled. Circulating H-FABP was measured. The predictive value of H-FABP for 28-day mortality, organ dysfunction on ED arrival, and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression and was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

RESULTS

The 28-day mortality, APACHE II, MEDS, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores were much higher in H-FABP-positive patients. The incidence of organ dysfunction at ED arrival and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was higher in H-FABP-positive patients. Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for H-FABP predicting 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction was 0.784 and 0.755, respectively. Combination of H-FABP and MEDS improved the performance of MEDS in predicting organ dysfunction, and the difference of AUC was statistically significant (P<.05). The combinations of H-FABP and MEDS or H-FABP and APACHE II also improved the prognostic value of MEDS and APACHE II, but the areas under the curve were not statistically different.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein was helpful for prognosis and risk stratification of septic patients in the ED.

Maximum tumor diameter and the risk of prostate-specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate whether the MTD could identify men at low risk of PSA recurrence after RP who might not benefit from ART despite other adverse features.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 354 men with T1c to T2 prostate cancer diagnosed between September 2001 and December 2008 who underwent RP without adjuvant therapy. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the effect of MTD on the risk of PSA recurrence (> 0.1 ng/mL and verified), adjusting for known predictors.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 4.0 years, 34 men (9.6%) experienced PSA failure. In multivariable analysis, increasing MTD was significantly associated with an increased PSA recurrence risk (hazard ratio, 2.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-6.10; P = .01) within the interaction model. Estimates of PSA recurrence-free survival stratified around the median MTD value (1.2 cm) were significantly different in men with a pre-RP PSA > 4 ng/mL (P < .001; 5-year estimate: 74.5% vs. 99.0%) but not in men with PSA ≤ 4 ng/mL (P = .59; 5-year estimate: 89.6% vs. 92.6%), consistent with the significant interaction (P = .004) between PSA and MTD. Moreover, in men with a pre-RP PSA > 4 ng/mL these estimates were significantly different if at least 1 adverse feature (pT3, R1, or Gleason score ≥ 8) was present at RP (P = .01; 5-year estimate: 46.6% vs. 100%) versus none (P = .09; 5-year estimate: 93.4% vs. 98.9%).

CONCLUSION

Men with a low MTD (≤ 1.2 cm) appear to be at low risk of PSA recurrence despite adverse features at RP and might not benefit from ART.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors: a case report

Advances in the identification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors, its molecular and immunohiostochemical basis, and its management have been a watershed in the treatment of gastrointestinal tumors. This paradigm shift occurred over the last two decades and gastrointestinal stromal tumors have now come to be understood as rare gastrointestinal tract tumors with predictable behavior and outcome, replacing the older terminologies like leiomyoma, schwannoma or leiomyosarcoma. This report presents a case of gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumor operated recently in a 47-year-old female patient and the outcome, as well as literature review of the pathological identification, sites of origin, and factors predicting its behavior, prognosis and treatment.

Refining risk stratification for locoregional failure after chemoradiotherapy in human papillomavirus-associated oropharyngeal cancer

BACKGROUND

To determine whether the addition of molecular and imaging biomarkers to established clinical risk factors could help predict locoregional failure (LRF) after chemoradiation in human papillomavirus (HPV)-related (+) oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and improve patient selection for locoregional treatment de-intensification.

METHODS

HPV status was determined for 198 consecutive patients with stage III/IV OPC treated with definitive chemoradiation from 5/2003 to 10/2010. The impact of pre-therapy epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) overexpression; imaging biomarkers including primary tumor and nodal maximum standardized uptake values on FDG-PET, gross tumor volumes, and matted nodes; and clinical factors on LRF (including residual disease at adjuvant neck dissection) was assessed.

RESULTS

Primary tumors were HPV+ in 184 patients and HPV-negative in 14. EGFR overexpression was related to HPV-negative status and was univariately associated with LRF in the overall population, but was neither retained in the multivariate model after adjustment for HPV status, nor associated with LRF in HPV+ patients. Similarly, imaging biomarkers were univariately associated with LRF, but correlated with T-stage and/or N-stage and did not remain predictive in HPV+ patients after adjustment for T4- and N3-stages, which were the only significant predictors of LRF on multivariate analysis. Among HPV+ patients with non-T4- or N3-stages, only minimal smoking was associated with decreased LRF.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic impact of EGFR overexpression and imaging biomarkers on LRF was predominantly related to their association with HPV-negative status and T- or N-stage, respectively. Among HPV+ OPC patients treated with uniform chemoradiation, only T4-stage, N3-stage, and smoking contributed to risk-stratification for LRF.

Towards precision medicine in childhood leukemia--insights from mutationally activated cytokine receptor pathways in acute lymphoblastic leukemia

The successful therapy of childhood leukemia has been characterized by careful personalized adaptation of therapy by risk stratification. Yet almost all drugs are relatively non-specific. To achieve greater precision in therapy, druggable targets and specific targeting drugs are necessary. Here we review the recent discoveries of cytokine receptors and their signaling components in high risk leukemias and the potential approaches to target them.

Frailty assessment in thoracic surgery

A best evidence topic in thoracic surgery was performed according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was the role of frailty scores in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing thoracic surgery. Seventy-one papers were found using the reported search, of which three studies and one conference abstract represented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, journal date, country of publication, patient group, study type, relevant outcomes and results are tabulated. Despite an extensive literature search, few studies were identified which addressed the clinical dilemma posed, all of which were retrospective observational series. A study analysed 971 434 patients across a wide range of surgical specialties, 4648 of which were classified as thoracic. A statistically significant relationship was demonstrated between increasing frailty and higher rates of postoperative complications and mortality (P < 0.0001). Another study reported a similar association between modified frailty index (mFI) scores and postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing lobectomies. Morbidity increased uniformly with mFI and multivariant analysis found an mFI of >0.27 (P = 0.002) to be an independent predictor of mortality. Another paper demonstrated higher rates of major postoperative complications and increased mortality (P < 0.001) in patients with higher preoperative dependency. A study examined geriatric frailty assessment tools for the prediction of postoperative outcomes in patients over 70 undergoing thoracic surgery for neoplasms. The Geriatric Depression Screen, Mini Mental State Examination, Fatigue Inventory, Eastern Co-Operative Oncology Group Performance Scale and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living were used as a means of determining preoperative frailty. Their conclusion supported the conclusions drawn from the larger studies that a single frailty measure alone did not predict an increase in morbidity or mortality, but in combination several measures may have a role in predicting postoperative outcomes. The clinical bottom line is that there is a paucity of evidence to either fully support or fully refute the use of preoperative frailty scoring as a reliable means of predicting morbidity and mortality in thoracic surgery. The evidence presented does however indicate the potentially important clinical role that frailty scores may have in the future.

Impact of the presence and amount of myocardial fibrosis by cardiac magnetic resonance on arrhythmic outcome and sudden cardiac death in nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

Current risk stratification for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDC) relies on left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, a poor marker of ventricular electrical instability. Contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance has the ability to accurately identify and quantify ventricular myocardial fibrosis (late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of the presence and amount of myocardial fibrosis on arrhythmogenic risk prediction in NIDC.

METHODS

One hundred thirty-seven consecutive patients with angiographically proven NIDC were enrolled for this study. All patients were followed up for a combined arrhythmic end point including sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT), appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) intervention, ventricular fibrillation (VF), and SCD.

RESULTS

LV-LGE was identified in 76 (55.5%) patients. During a median follow-up of 3 years, the combined arrhythmic end point occurred in 22 (16.1%) patients: 8 (5.8%) sustained VT, 9 (6.6%) appropriate ICD intervention, either against VF (n = 5; 3.6%) or VT (n = 4; 2.9%), 3 (2.2%) aborted SCD, and 2 (1.5%) died suddenly. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significant correlation between the LV-LGE presence (not the amount and distribution) and malignant arrhythmic events (P < .001). In univariate Cox regression analysis, LV-LGE (hazard ratio [HR] 4.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56-11.2; P = .005) and left bundle branch block (HR 2.43; 95% CI 1.01-5.41; P = .048) were found to be associated with arrhythmias. In multivariable analysis, the presence of LGE was the only independent predictor of arrhythmias (HR 3.8; 95% CI 1.3-10.4; P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

LV-LGE is a powerful and independent predictor of malignant arrhythmic prognosis, while its amount and distribution do not provide additional prognostic value. Contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance may contribute to identify candidates for ICD therapy not fulfilling the current criteria based on left ventricular ejection fraction.

Right ventricular dysfunction in hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Echocardiography for risk stratification in hemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) is well-established. Right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) is associated with an elevated mortality and adverse outcome. The aim of our study was to compare RVD criteria and investigate the role of elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) in the diagnosis of RVD.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the echocardiographic and laboratory data of all hemodynamically stable patients with confirmed PE (2006-2011). The data were compared with three different definitions of RVD: Definition 1: RV dilatation, abnormal motion of interventricular septum, RV hypokinesis or tricuspid regurgitation. Definition 2: as with definition 1 but including elevated sPAP (>30mmHg). Definition 3: elevated sPAP (>30mmHg) as single RVD criterion.

RESULTS

A total number of 129 patients (59.7% women, age 70.0years (60.7/81.0)) were included in this study. Median Troponin I level was measured as 0.02ng/ml (0/0.14); mean sPAP 33.9±18.5mmHg. The troponin cut-off levels for predicting a RVD of the 3 RVD definitions were in definition 1-3: >0.01ng/ml, >0.01ng/ml and >0.00ng/ml. Analysis of the ROC curve showed an AUC for RVD definitions 1-3: 0.790, 0.796 and 0.635.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of commonly used RVD criteria with added elevated sPAP improves the diagnosis of RVD in acute PE. Troponin I values of >0.01ng/ml in acute PE point to an RVD.

Current roles and future applications of cardiac CT: risk stratification of coronary artery disease

Cardiac computed tomography (CT) has emerged as a noninvasive modality for the assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD), and has been rapidly integrated into clinical cares. CT has changed the traditional risk stratification based on clinical risk to image-based identification of patient risk. Cardiac CT, including coronary artery calcium score and coronary CT angiography, can provide prognostic information and is expected to improve risk stratification of CAD. Currently used conventional cardiac CT, provides accurate anatomic information but not functional significance of CAD, and it may not be sufficient to guide treatments such as revascularization. Recently, myocardial CT perfusion imaging, intracoronary luminal attenuation gradient, and CT-derived computed fractional flow reserve were developed to combine anatomical and functional data. Although at present, the diagnostic and prognostic value of these novel technologies needs to be evaluated further, it is expected that all-in-one cardiac CT can guide treatment and improve patient outcomes in the near future.

Syncope: classification and risk stratification

BACKGROUND

Syncope is one of the most common reasons for emergency department and urgent care clinic visits. The management of syncope continues to be a challenging problem for front-line providers inasmuch as there are a multitude of possible causes for syncope ranging from relatively benign conditions to potentially life-threatening ones. In any event, it is important to identify those syncope patients who are at immediate risk of life-threatening events; these individuals require prompt hospitalization and thorough evaluation. Conversely, it is equally important to avoid unnecessary hospitalization of low-risk patients since unneeded hospital care adds to the healthcare cost burden.

RESULTS

Historically, front-line providers have taken a conservative approach with admission rates as high as 30-50% among syncope patients. A number of studies evaluating both the short- and long-term risk of adverse events in patients with syncope have focused on development of risk-stratification guidelines to assist providers in making a confident and well-informed choice between hospitalization and out-patient referral. In this regard, a much needed consensus on optimal decision-making process has not been developed to date. However, knowledge from various available risk-stratification studies can be helpful.

CONCLUSION

This review summarizes the findings of various risk-stratification studies and points out key differences between them. While, the existing risk-stratification methods cannot replace critical assessment by an experienced physician, they do provide valuable guidance. In addition, the various risk-assessment schemes highlight the need for careful initial clinical assessment of syncope patients, selective testing, and being mindful of the short- and long-term risks.

Risk assessment of ischemic stroke associated pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Cerebral stroke is a disease with a high disability rate and a high fatality rate. This study was undertaken to assess the risk of stroke associated pneumonia (SAP) in patients with ischemic stroke using A2DS2 score.

METHODS

Altogether 1 279 patients with ischemic stroke who were treated in our department from 2009 to 2011 were retrospectively analyzed with A2DS2 score. A2DS2 score was calculated as follows: age ≥75 years=1, atrial fibrillation=1, dysphagia=2, male sex=1; stroke severity: NIHSS score 0-4=0, 5-15=3, ≥16=5. The patients were divided into three groups according to A2DS2 score: 620 in score 0 group, 383 in score 1-9 group, and 276 in score ≥10 group. The three groups were comparatively analyzed. The diagnostic criteria for SAP were as follows: newly emerging lesions or progressively infiltrating lesions on post-stroke chest images combined with more than two of the following clinical symptoms of infection: (1) fever ≥38 °C; (2) newly occurred cough, productive cough or exacerbation of preexisting respiratory tract symptoms with or without chest pain; (3) signs of pulmonary consolidation and/or wet rales; (4) peripheral white blood cell count ≥10×10(9)/L or ≤4×10(9)/L with or without nuclear shift to left, while excluding some diseases with clinical manifestations similar to pneumonia, such as tuberculosis, pulmonary tumors, non-infectious interstitial lung disease, pulmonary edema, pulmonary embolism and atelectasis. The incidence and mortality of SAP as well as the correlation with ischemic stroke site were analyzed in the three groups respectively. Mean± standard deviation was used to represent measurement data with normal distribution and Student's t test was used. The chi-square test was used to calculate the percentage for enumeration data.

RESULTS

The incidence of SAP was significantly higher in the A2DS2 score≥10 group than that in the score 1-9 and score 0 groups (71.7% vs. 22.7%, 71.7% vs. 3.7%, respectively), whereas the mortality in the score≥10 group was significantly higher than that in the score 1-9 and score 0 groups (16.7% vs. 4.96%, 16.7% vs. 0.3%, respectively). The incidences of cerebral infarction in posterior circulation and cross-MCA, ACA distribution areas were significantly higher than those in the SAP group and in the non-SAP group (35.1% vs.10.1%, 11.4% vs. 7.5%, respectively). The incidence of non-fermentative bacteria infection was significantly increased in the score≥10 group.

CONCLUSIONS

A2DS2 score provides a basis for risk stratification of SAP. The prevention of SAP needs to be strengthened in acute ischemic stroke patients with a A2DS2 score≥10.

The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms

OBJECTIVES

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta.

METHODS

We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013).

RESULTS

The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

Standardized reporting for congenital diaphragmatic hernia--an international consensus

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) remains a significant cause of neonatal death. A wide spectrum of disease severity and treatment strategies makes comparisons challenging. The objective of this study was to create a standardized reporting system for CDH.

METHODS

Data were prospectively collected on all live born infants with CDH from 51 centers in 9 countries. Patients who underwent surgical correction had the diaphragmatic defect size graded (A-D) using a standardized system. Other data known to affect outcome were combined to create a usable staging system. The primary outcome was death or hospital discharge.

RESULTS

A total of 1,975 infants were evaluated. A total of 326 infants were not repaired, and all died. Of the remaining 1,649, the defect was scored in 1,638 patients. A small defect (A) had a high survival, while a large defect was much worse. Cardiac defects significantly worsened outcome. We grouped patients into 6 categories based on defect size with an isolated A defect as stage I. A major cardiac anomaly (+) placed the patient in the next higher stage. Applying this, patient survival is 99% for stage I, 96% stage II, 78% stage III, 58% stage IV, 39% stage V, and 0% for non-repair.

CONCLUSIONS

The size of the diaphragmatic defect and a severe cardiac anomaly are strongly associated with outcome. Standardizing reporting is imperative in determining optimal outcomes and effective therapies for CDH and could serve as a benchmark for prospective trials.

Uric acid in-hospital changes predict mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prognostic impact of admission uric acid (UA) levels in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is controversial. We assessed the prognostic role of in-hospital UA changes in patients with AMI.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 375 consecutive patients (320 males, mean age 62.6 years) with AMI (232 with ST elevation MI) within 12 h of symptoms' onset. UA levels were daily measured throughout hospitalization and their admission and peak values were recorded. End-points were 30-day and 1-year mortality. Mortality rate at 30 days was 7.2% and at 1 year 10.9%. Patients who died within 30 days exhibited higher peak UA (10.24 mg/dl vs. 7.06 mg/dl, p < 0.001) and absolute UA elevation (1.7 mg/dl vs. 0.7 mg/dl, p < 0.001). Optimal values for predicting 30-day mortality were 9.65 mg/dl for peak UA and 2.35 mg/dl for UA elevation. Concerning 1-year mortality, deceased patients had higher peak UA levels (9.71 mg/dl vs. 7 mg/dl, p < 0.001) and absolute UA elevation (1.5 mg/dl vs. 0.6 mg/dl, p < 0.001). Optimal values for predicting 1-year mortality were 9.55 mg/dl for peak UA and 1.1 mg/dl for UA elevation. With Cox regression analysis peak UA (adjHR 1.157, p = 0.030) and UA elevation (adjHR 1.288, p = 0.009) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Similarly, peak UA levels (adjHR 1.204, p = 0.001) and UA elevation (adjHR 1.213, p = 0.001) predicted 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AMI peak rather than admission UA levels, and absolute in-hospital UA elevation predict both 30-day and 1-year mortality. Serial in-hospital UA measurements add prognostic information in AMI patients.

Major arrhythmic events and T wave morphology descriptors in hemodialyzed patients

BACKGROUND

Sudden cardiac death is common in patients receiving regular hemodialysis (HD). We recently demonstrated that selected repolarization descriptors calculated from electrocardiographic monitoring during HD demonstrate intra-subject stability. In this study we followed up the initial cohort for major arrhythmic events (MAE).

METHODS

Holter electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded during dialysis in 81 HD patients and repeated 5 times at 2 week intervals. The QRS-to-T angle (TCRT), the principal component analysis (PCA) ratio and the T wave morphology dispersion (TMD) were calculated in overlapping 10 second ECG segments and averaged overall recordings in each patient. Patients were followed up for MAE and non-arrhythmic mortality.

RESULTS

During 18 ± 3 months, 3 patients experienced MAE. Compared to others, MAE patients exhibited extreme TCRT and TMD values and minimal intradialytic changes.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic value of repolarization descriptors from intradialytic monitoring should be assessed prospectively.

Performance of risk stratification for acute coronary syndrome with two-hour sensitive troponin assay results

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification processes for patients with possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) recommend the use of serial sensitive troponin testing over at least 6h. Troponin assays vary in their analytical performance. Utility in accurate risk stratification at 2h post-presentation is unknown.

METHODS

A diagnostic accuracy study of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with symptoms of ACS was performed. Troponin was measured at 0, 2 and 6h post-presentation. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was adjudicated by cardiologists and incorporated the 0 and 6h troponin values measured by a sensitive troponin assay. Results were described using standard measures of test accuracy.

RESULTS

Of the 685 patients, 51 (7.4%) had 30-day AMI or cardiac death, and 76 (11.1%) had secondary outcomes (all cause death, ACS and revascularisation procedures). There was no significant difference in the diagnostic accuracy of early versus late biomarker strategies when used with the current risk stratification processes. Incorporation of a significant delta did not improve the stratification at 2h post-presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

Accelerated risk stratification of patients with ACS symptoms may occur at 2h post-presentation using troponin results measured by a sensitive assay. Incorporation of such a strategy could support improvements in patient flow within EDs.

EORTC progression score identifies patients at high risk of cancer-specific mortality after radical cystectomy for secondary muscle-invasive bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop a risk stratification of patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) after radical cystectomy (RC). For this purpose, we compared the cancer-specific mortality (CSM) of patients with primary MIBC and patients with secondary MIBC in different risk groups according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) progression score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The records of 521 consecutive patients treated with RC for clinical MIBC according to transurethral resection of bladder cancer (TURBT) diagnosis were reviewed. Of the 521 patients, 399 (76.6%) had primary MIBC (study group 1 [SG1]) and 122 (23.4%) had secondary MIBC (study group 2 [SG2]). Patients in SG2 were stratified into risk groups according to the results of the first and last TURBT in non-MIBC using the EORTC progression score.

RESULTS

CSM for patients with primary and secondary MIBC did not differ significantly. Patients in SG2 with the highest risk for tumor stage progression at time of the first and last TURBT in non-MIBC showed a significantly higher CSM after RC compared with patients with low-to-intermediate risk and compared with patients in SG1. In multivariable analyses, stage pT 3/4 (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; P < .001), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (HR, 3.47; P < .001), female sex (HR, 1.35; P = .048), and time from diagnosis of MIBC to RC > 90 days (HR, 2.07; P < .001) were significantly associated with higher CSM.

CONCLUSION

Risk stratification by the EORTC progression score can help to identify those patients with the highest risk of CSM after progression to MIBC and thus enable us to offer these patients a multimodal treatment. Our results need to be verified in large prospective studies.

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) - initial evaluation and management

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most common reason that the 'on-call' gastroenterologist is consulted. Despite the diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities of upper endoscopy, there is still significant associated morbidity and mortality in patients experiencing acute UGIB, thus this is a true GI emergency. Acute UGIB is divided into non-variceal and variceal causes. The most common type of acute UGIB is 'non-variceal' and includes diagnoses such as peptic ulcer (gastric and duodenal), gastroduodenal erosions, Mallory-Weiss tears, erosive oesophagitis, arterio-venous malformations, Dieulafoy's lesion, and upper GI tract tumours and malignancies. This article focuses exclusively on initial management strategies for acute upper GI bleeding. We discuss up to date and evidence-based strategies for patient risk stratification, initial patient management prior to endoscopy, potential causes of UGIB, role of proton pump inhibitors, prokinetic agents, prophylactic antibiotics, vasoactive pharmacotherapies, and timing of endoscopy.

[Acute coronary syndrome in nonagenarians: clinical evolution and validation of the main risk scores]

INTRODUCTION

Several risk scores regarding the probability of death/complications in the acute setting and during the follow-up of patients admitted with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have been published, such as the GRACE, TIMI and ZWOLLE risk score. Our objective was to assess the prognosis of nonagenarians admitted to a coronary care unit with an ACS, as well as the usefulness of each of these scores.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on nonagenarians with an ACS admitted between 2003 and 2011. Vital status was determined at 14, 30 days, and 6 months after the ACS, and later during the follow-up. The risk scores were evaluated by area under the curve ROC (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 45 patients with an ACS, 26 (57.8%) with ST-segment elevation and 19 (42.2%) with non-ST elevation. The GRACE- AUC for in-hospital mortality was excellent, 0.91, (95% CI: 0.82-1; P<.001), and for the combined event (in-hospital mortality and re-infarction) was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.66-1.0; P<.01). However, the GRACE-AUC at 6 months for mortality was 0.34 (95% CI: 0.09-0.58; P=.45), and for the combined event it was 0.51 (95% CI: 0.26-0.77; P=.95). The TIMI-AUC and ZWOLLE-AUC did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

It is useful calculate the GRACE risk score in order to estimate risk and survival in the acute phase of ACS in nonagenarians. This can help appropriate in making invasive or conservative treatment decisions.

The predictive value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein is independent from symptom duration in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) is a useful biomarker for risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). In patients with acute myocardial infarction, H-FABP plasma concentrations rise after 30 minutes and return to normal within 20-24 hours. We tested whether the predictive value of H-FABP is affected by the duration of symptoms prior to diagnosis in patients with PE.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively studied 257 consecutive normotensive patients with confirmed symptomatic PE.

RESULTS

Patients with acute (<24 hours; n=150) symptom onset presented more often with syncope (28.7% vs. 6.5%; p<0.001) compared to patients with symptoms ≥ 24 hours (n=107); other baseline characteristics, comorbidities, and risk factors were distributed equally. Patients with an adverse 30-day outcome (6.6%) had higher H-FABP levels (11.84 [3.57-19.62] ng/ml) compared to patients with a favorable course (3.42 [1.92-5.42] ng/ml; p<0.001). However, the proportion of patients with H-FABP levels ≥ 6 ng/ml did not differ among patients with acute symptom onset and late presentation (p=0.104). Only tachycardia and elevation of H-FABP were associated with an increased risk of an adverse 30-day outcome both in patients with acute symptom onset (H-FABP: OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.4-24.5; p=0.016; tachycardia: 7.0 [1.4-36.0]; p=0.018) and late presentation (H-FABP: 9.3 [2.0-43.2]; p=0.004 and tachycardia: 12.3 [1.5-103.6]; p=0.021). The prognostic value could further be improved by the use of a simple H-FABP-based clinical prediction score.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that H-FABP is a useful biomarker for risk stratification of normotensive patients with PE regardless of symptom duration prior to diagnosis.

Comparative analysis of red cell distribution width and high sensitivity C-reactive protein for coronary heart disease mortality prediction in multi-ethnic population: findings from the 1999-2004 NHANES

BACKGROUND

Red cell distribution width (RDW) has been shown to predict all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality. However, the predictive ability of RDW for future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in comparison to high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) has not been assessed in a population cohort free of CVD.

METHODS

Analysis was performed on 8,513 adult participants (age > 20 years) free of CVD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2004. Cox-proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the role of RDW and hs-CRP in CHD mortality and in subgroups based on high and low RDW and hs-CRP.

RESULTS

On adjustment for traditional risk factors (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, lipid lowering therapy, smoking, diabetes mellitus, anemia, mean corpuscular volume and nutritional deficiencies), RDW [hazard ratio (HR) 1.26 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.12-1.42] p < 0.001] remained an independent predictor, while hs-CRP [HR 1.18 95% CI [0.98-1.41] p = 0.077] did not. On comparative analysis, high RDW (> 12.6%) was predictive of CHD mortality irrespective of hs-CRP status [hs-CRP ≤ 3 mg/L (HR 1.17 95% CI [1.01-1.36] p = 0.031)] and hs-CRP > 3 mg/L (HR 1.44 95% CI [1.23-1.68] p < 0.001). Hs-CRP was not predictive in either high or low RDW subgroup.

CONCLUSION

RDW but not hs-CRP was associated with CHD mortality independent of traditional risk factors in a cohort with no pre-existing CVD. RDW may be considered a stronger biomarker for CHD death than hs-CRP and needs further prospective evaluation in CVD risk assessment.

ECG monitoring in syncope

Electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring is a well-established procedure in the work-up of patients with syncope or for diagnosing arrhythmias. The investigation of syncope remains, however, challenging and physicians have an increasing armamentarium of diagnostic tools available and with advances in technology the role of these tools has to be continuously evaluated. The gold standard for the diagnosis of syncope is a symptom-ECG correlation, and while many studies have investigated the use and indications of both short-term and long-term monitoring; there is still some uncertainty in their clinical utility and practical approach. The use of ECG monitoring and other diagnostic tools is often subject to a "shot-gun approach" rather than a strict guideline algorithm. A systematic approach and selection of ECG monitoring tools helps permit an effective usage of the limited health care resources available for the management of unexplained syncope. In this review we aim to focus and clarify the role of short-term (Holter and external loop recorders) and long-term (implantable loop recorders) ECG monitoring in the diagnosis and management of patients with unexplained syncope.

Heart rate turbulence

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) is a baroreflex-mediated biphasic reaction of heart rate in response to premature ventricular beats. Heart rate turbulence is quantified by: turbulence onset (TO) reflecting the initial acceleration of heart rate following premature beat and turbulence slope (TS) describing subsequent deceleration of heart rate. Abnormal HRT identifies patients with autonomic dysfunction or impaired baroreflex sensitivity due to variety of disorders, but also may reflect changes in autonomic nervous system induced by different therapeutic modalities such as drugs, revascularization, or cardiac resynchronization therapy. More importantly, impaired HRT has been shown to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality and sudden death, particularly in postinfarction and congestive heart failure patients. It should be emphasized that abnormal HRT has a well-established role in stratification of postinfarction and heart failure patients with relatively preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. The ongoing clinical trials will document whether HRT can be used to guide implantation of cardioverter-defibrillators in this subset of patients, not covered yet by ICD guidelines. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art knowledge regarding clinical significance of HRT in detection of autonomic dysfunction and regarding the prognostic significance of this parameter in predicting all-cause mortality and sudden death.

The role of soluble thrombomodulin in the risk stratification and prognosis evaluation of septic patients in the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

Soluble thrombomodulin (sTM) is a sensitive marker of endothelial damage. In this study we investigated the role of sTM in the evaluation of the severity and prognosis of septic patients in the emergency department (ED).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective, observational cohort study was performed in the ED of an urban, university hospital. Patients who had suspected infection with two or more criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome were consecutively enrolled. sTM, D-Dimer and procalcitonin levels were measured on enrollment, and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score was calculated. A 30-day follow-up was performed for all patients.

RESULTS

A total of 372 patients with sepsis, 210 patients with severe sepsis and 98 patients with septic shock were enrolled in this study. According to the disease severity, patients were divided into sepsis subgroup and severe sepsis subgroup (including septic shock). In addition, patients were divided into survivors subgroup and non-survivors subgroup according to the 30-day mortality. Plasma sTM levels in patients with severe sepsis were higher than those with sepsis (P<0.001). Compared with survivors, non-survivors has higher plasma sTM levels (P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that sTM was an independent predictor of severe sepsis (odds ratio 1.11) and 30-day mortality (odds ratio 1.059). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that sTM was a useful parameter in prediction of severe sepsis (0.859) and 30-day mortality (0.78). Compared with the MEDS score alone, combination of sTM and the MEDS score can improve the accuracy in prediction of severe sepsis and 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

sTM is a valuable biomarker in the risk stratification and prognosis evaluation of ED sepsis. Furthermore, sTM can enhance the ability of the MEDS score in prediction of severe sepsis and 30-day mortality.

Electrocardiogram as a screening tool in the general population: a strategic review

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a major public health concern, accounting for 400,000 deaths in the US each year. Clinical and autopsy studies have consistently demonstrated a predominant, common pathophysiology in Western populations, showing that the most common electrophysiological mechanism of SCD is ventricular fibrillation, and the most common pathologic substrate is coronary heart disease (CHD). In about half of SCD cases, death is the first clinical manifestation of CHD. Yet risk factors of SCD early in the natural history of conditions predisposing SCD have not been fully identified, and SCD risk stratification strategy in the general population has not been developed. ECG is an easily available, non-expensive and non-invasive tool, which carries valuable information on electrophysiological properties of the heart. However, traditional analysis of ECG includes very limited assessment of the arrhythmogenic substrate. In this review rationale for development of ECG SCD risk score for screening in the general population is discussed.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors: risk assessment and adjuvant therapy

Adjuvant imatinib prolongs recurrence-free survival and probably overall survival of patients who have undergone surgery for gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST). Estimation of the risk of recurrence with a prognostication tool and tumor mutation analysis is essential before imatinib initiation, because approximately 60% of patients with GIST with operable tumor are cured by surgery alone and some mutated tyrosine kinases are insensitive to imatinib. Adjuvant imatinib is usually administered for 3 years at the dose of 400 mg once daily. Early detection of tumors that recur despite adjuvant therapy with longitudinal imaging of the abdomen is likely beneficial.

Changes in serum uric acid levels and cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The association between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and cardiovascular (CV) risk or all-cause death has been repeatedly reported. However, it has not been assessed whether reduction of SUA levels is associated with reduced CV risk. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between changes of SUA levels and CV events as well as all-cause death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Randomised trials reporting SUA at baseline and at the end of follow-up and clinical end-points (all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF) and CV death) were included in the study. Meta-regression analysis was performed to test the relationship between SUA changes and clinical end-points. Eleven trials enrolling 21,373 participants followed up for 2.02 ± 1.76 years and reporting 4533 events were included. In meta-regression analysis, no relationship between SUA changes from baseline to end of follow-up and the composite outcome including CV death, stroke, MI and HF was found (change in Tau(2) (t) = -0.64; p Tau (p) = 0.541). Similarly, no relationship was found between SUA changes and single components of the composite outcome (MI: t = -0.83; p = 0.493; stroke: t = 0.46; p = 0.667; HF: t = 2.44; p = 0.162; CV death: t = -0.54; p = 0.614) and all-cause death (t = -0.72; p = 0.496). Results were confirmed by sensitivity analysis. No heterogeneity among studies or publication bias was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in SUA levels observed during pharmacologic treatments do not predict the risk of all-cause death or CV events. As SUA levels are associated with increased CV risk, additional studies with direct xanthine-oxidase inhibitors are requested.

Association between tumor diameter and lymphovascular space invasion among women with early-stage endometrial cancer

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between tumor diameter and intratumoral risk factors that might predict the need for full surgical staging among women with endometrial cancer (EC).

METHODS

Data from patients with early-stage EC treated at the Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy, between January 2004 and December 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Associations between tumor diameter and tumor grade, myometrial invasion, risk group, lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI), and lower uterine segment (LUS) involvement were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 181 patients met the inclusion criteria. The tumor diameter was 2cm or less in 110 women (60%). χ(2) analysis showed that tumor grading, myometrial invasion, risk group, and LVSI were significantly associated with tumor size (P<0.001), whereas LUS involvement was marginally associated (P=0.051). By multivariate analysis, LVSI and myometrial invasion had an independent association with tumor size greater than 2cm (P<0.018).

CONCLUSION

Tumor size greater than 2cm was significantly and independently associated with LVSI and myometrial invasion among patients with early-stage EC. Given the difficulty of obtaining reliable LVSI data from frozen sections, tumor size might be used as a surrogate at the time of surgery to provide additional information to triage patients for full surgical staging.

A genetic score can identify men at high risk for prostate cancer among men with prostate-specific antigen of 1-3 ng/ml

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic performance of a genetic score based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is unknown in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) range of 1-3 ng/ml. A substantial proportion of men in this PSA span have prostate cancer (PCa), but biomarkers to determine who should undergo a prostate biopsy are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether a genetic risk score identifies men in the PSA range of 1-3 ng/ml who are at higher risk for PCa.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Men aged 50-69 yr with PSA 1-3 ng/ml and without a previous prostate biopsy were selected from the STHLM2 cohort. Of 2696 men, 49 SNPs were genotyped, and a polygenic risk score was calculated. Of these men, 860 were invited according to risk score, and 172 underwent biopsy.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The risk of PCa was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

PCa was diagnosed in 47 of 172 participants (27%), with Gleason sum 6 in 36 of 47 men (77%) and Gleason sum ≥7 in 10 of 47 men (21%); one man had intraductal cancer. The genetic score was a significant predictor of a positive biopsy (p=0.028), even after adjusting for PSA, ratio of free to total PSA, prostate volume, age, and family history. There was an increase in the odds ratio of 1.60 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.45) with increasing genetic risk score. The absolute risk difference of positive biopsy was 19 percentage points, comparing the high and low genetic risk group (37% vs 18%).

CONCLUSIONS

A risk score based on SNPs predicts biopsy outcome in previously unbiopsied men with PSA 1-3 ng/ml. Introducing a genetic-based risk stratification tool can increase the proportion of men being classified in line with their true risk of PCa.

Frequent inaccuracies in ABCD2 scoring in non-stroke specialists' referrals to a daily Rapid Access Stroke Prevention service

The 'accuracy' of age, blood pressure, clinical features, duration and diabetes (ABCD(2)) scoring by non-stroke specialists referring patients to a daily Rapid Access Stroke Prevention (RASP) service is unclear, as is the accuracy of ABCD(2) scoring by trainee residents. In this prospective study, referrals were classified as 'confirmed TIAs' if the stroke specialist confirmed a clinical diagnosis of possible, probable or definite TIA, and 'non-TIAs' if patients had a TIA mimic or completed stroke. ABCD(2) scores from referring physicians were compared with scores by experienced stroke specialists and neurology/geriatric medicine residents at a daily RASP clinic; inter-observer agreement was examined. Data from 101 referrals were analysed (mean age=60.0years, 58% male). The median interval between referral and clinic assessment was 1day. Of 101 referrals, 52 (52%) were 'non-TIAs': 45 (86%) of 52 were 'TIA mimics' and 7 (14%) of 52 were completed strokes. There was only 'fair' agreement in total ABCD(2) scoring between referring physicians and stroke specialists (κ=0.37). Agreement was 'excellent' between residents and stroke specialists (κ=0.91). Twenty of 29 patients scored as 'moderate to high risk' (score 4-6) by stroke specialists were scored 'low risk' (score 0-3) by referring physicians. ABCD(2) scoring by referring doctors is frequently inaccurate, with a tendency to underestimate stroke risk. These findings emphasise the importance of urgent specialist assessment of suspected TIA patients, and that ABCD(2) scores by non-stroke specialists cannot be relied upon in isolation to risk-stratify patients. Inter-observer agreement in ABCD(2) scoring was 'excellent' between residents and stroke specialists, indicating short-term training may improve accuracy.

Deep vein thrombosis chemoprophylaxis in plastic surgery

The practice of plastic surgery is a unique mixture of art and science, and both must be carefully balanced to provide the best possible care for patients. To do that, clinicians should be practicing evidence-based medicine. This article discusses the prevalence and risks associated with deep vein thrombosis and the reasons and options for its possible chemoprophylaxis. Until evidence-based medicine best-practice recommendations can be developed, it would be prudent for clinicians to empirically select and consistently apply a risk stratification system and prophylaxis regimen of their choice for the benefit of their patients.

Malignant arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy with a normal 12-lead electrocardiogram: a rare but underrecognized clinical entity

BACKGROUND

In Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Dysplasia/Cardiomyopathy (ARVD/C), a normal electrocardiogram (ECG) is considered reassuring. However, some patients with ARVD/C experiencing ventricular arrhythmias have a normal ECG.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate how often patients with ARVD/C experiencing ventricular arrhythmias have a normal ECG during sinus rhythm, and to provide a clinical profile of these patients.

METHODS

We included 145 patients with ARVD/C experiencing a documented sustained ventricular arrhythmia. Conventional 12-lead sinus rhythm ECGs within 6 months of the event were reviewed for diagnostic Task Force Criteria (TFC). ECGs were classified as abnormal (≥1 TFC), nonspecific (abnormal, no TFC), or normal. Cardiologic investigations within 6 months of the event were evaluated as per TFC in those with a nonspecific or normal ECG.

RESULTS

The ECG was nonspecific or normal in 17 of 145 (12%) subjects. Mean age of these patients was 41.3 ± 12.4 years and 14 (82%) were men, comparable to those with an abnormal ECG. Most patients with a nonspecific or normal ECG showed ≥1 TFC on Holter monitoring (n = 9 of 10) and signal-averaged ECG (n = 4 of 5), and all had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia recorded. Among 15 patients who underwent structural evaluation, 11 (73%) showed structural TFC (9 major and 2 minor).

CONCLUSIONS

Although most patients with ARVD/C experiencing arrhythmias have an abnormal ECG, a nonspecific or normal ECG does not preclude ARVD/C diagnosis. All patients with a nonspecific or normal ECG had alternative evidence of disease expression. These results alert the physician not to rely exclusively on ECG in ARVD/C, but to assess arrhythmic risk by comprehensive clinical evaluation.

Validation of the Freiburg Comorbidity Index in 466 multiple myeloma patients and combination with the international staging system are highly predictive for outcome

BACKGROUND

The outcomes of MM patients vary considerably and depend on a variety of host- and disease-related risks. As yet, a comorbidity risk index in MM patients has neither been standardized nor validated.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted an initial analysis in 127 MM patients and developed the FCI, validating it in an independent cohort of 466 MM patients. The FCI includes patients' Karnofsky Performance Status, renal and lung disease status. We compared the prognostic information of this validated FCI with established comorbidity indices (Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Specific Comorbidity Index and Kaplan Feinstein), the International Staging System (ISS), MM therapy, and age.

RESULTS

Our validation confirmed that patients with 0, 1, or 2 to 3 FCI risk factors display significantly different overall survival (OS) of not reached, 86, and 39 months, respectively (P < .0001). Via multivariate analysis including the FCI, ISS, therapy, and age, the FCI retained its independent prognostic significance (P < .0015). The combination of the FCI and ISS allowed definition of 3 distinct subgroups with low-risk (FCI 0 and ISS I-II), intermediate-risk (all remaining), and high-risk (FCI 1-3 and ISS III) with OS probabilities at 5-years of 85%, 74%, and 42%, respectively (P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Our validation analysis demonstrated that the FCI remains a reliable comorbidity index, is simpler to generate than other available comorbidity scores, and contributes valuable information to the ISS. Their combination allows the definition of low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients. These results advocate use of the FCI in future prospective studies and might guide personalized treatment strategies.

BLEED-Myocardial Infarction Score: Predicting mid-term post-discharge bleeding events

AIM: To derive and validate a score for the prediction of mid-term bleeding events following discharge for myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS: One thousand and fifty patients admitted for MI and followed for 19.9 ± 6.7 mo were assigned to a derivation cohort. A new risk model, called BLEED-MI, was developed for predicting clinically significant bleeding events during follow-up (primary endpoint) and a composite endpoint of significant hemorrhage plus all-cause mortality (secondary endpoint), incorporating the following variables: age, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, blood urea nitrogen, glomerular filtration rate and hemoglobin at admission, history of stroke, bleeding during hospitalization or previous major bleeding, heart failure during hospitalization and anti-thrombotic therapies prescribed at discharge. The BLEED-MI model was tested for calibration, accuracy and discrimination in the derivation sample and in a new, independent, validation cohort comprising 852 patients admitted at a later date.

RESULTS: The BLEED-MI score showed good calibration in both derivation and validation samples (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value 0.371 and 0.444, respectively) and high accuracy within each individual patient (Brier score 0.061 and 0.067, respectively). Its discriminative performance in predicting the primary outcome was relatively high (c-statistic of 0.753 ± 0.032 in the derivation cohort and 0.718 ± 0.033 in the validation sample). Incidence of primary/secondary endpoints increased progressively with increasing BLEED-MI scores. In the validation sample, a BLEED-MI score below 2 had a negative predictive value of 98.7% (152/154) for the occurrence of a clinically significant hemorrhagic episode during follow-up and for the composite endpoint of post-discharge hemorrhage plus all-cause mortality. An accurate prediction of bleeding events was shown independently of mortality, as BLEED-MI predicted bleeding with similar efficacy in patients who did not die during follow-up: Area Under the Curve 0.703, Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value 0.547, Brier score 0.060; low-risk (BLEED-MI score 0-3) event rate: 1.2%; intermediate risk (score 4-6) event rate: 5.6%; high risk (score ≥ 7) event rate: 12.5%.

CONCLUSION: A new bedside prediction-scoring model for post-discharge mid-term bleeding has been derived and preliminarily validated. This is the first score designed to predict mid- term hemorrhagic risk in patients discharged following admission for acute MI. This model should be externally validated in larger cohorts of patients before its potential implementation.

Inpatient versus outpatient management of neutropenic fever in gynecologic oncology patients: is risk stratification useful?

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the utility of risk stratification of gynecologic oncology patients with neutropenic fever (NF).

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of gynecologic cancer patients admitted with NF from 2007 to 2011 was performed, wherein demographic, oncologic, and NF characteristics (hospitalization length, complications, and death) were collected. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk index score was calculated; low risk was considered ≥ 21. SAS 9.2 was used for statistical analyses.

RESULTS

Eighty-three patients met the study criteria. Most (92%) were Caucasian and had advanced stage disease (71%). Primary tumors were 58% ovary, 35% endometrium, and 6% cervix. All patients were receiving chemotherapy on admission (72% for primary, 28% for recurrent disease). Forty-eight percent had a positive culture, and most (58%) positive cultures were urine. Seventy-six percent of patients were considered low risk. High-risk patients were more likely to have a severe complication (10% versus 50%, p=0.0003), multiple severe complications (3% versus 20%, p=0.0278), ICU admission (2% versus 40%, p<0.0001), overall mortality (2% versus 15%, p=0.0417), and death due to neutropenic fever (0% versus 15%, p=0.0124). MASCC had a positive predictive value of 50% and negative predictive value of 90%. The median MASCC score for all patients was 22 (range, 11-26), but the median MASCC score for those with death or a severe complication was 17 (range, 11-24).

CONCLUSION

Based on this pilot data, MASCC score appears promising in determining suitability for outpatient management of NF in gynecologic oncology patients. Prospective study is ongoing to confirm safety and determine impact on cost.

Rapid clinical evaluation: an early warning cardiac surgical scoring system for hand-held digital devices

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to develop a new scoring system for the prompt recognition of clinical deterioration and early treatment in postoperative cardiac surgical patients.

METHODS

All consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 1st January 2007 and 31st December 2010 were included. The new score was calculated daily until intensive care unit (ICU) discharge. The score consists of 11 variables representing six different organ systems. Performance was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration tests.

RESULTS

A total of 5207 patients with a mean age of 67.2 ± 10.9 years were admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery. The operations performed covered the whole spectrum of cardiac surgery. ICU mortality was 5.9%. The mean length of ICU stay was 4.6 ± 7.0 days. The new score had an excellent discrimination with areas under the ROC curves between 0.91 and 0.96. Calibration was also excellent reflected by observed/expected mortality ratios ranging between 1.0 and 1.26.

CONCLUSIONS

The new score is a simple and reliable scoring system to assess organ dysfunction in cardiac intensive care patients. It is designed especially for personal digital assistants to simplify and accelerate the process of risk stratification in cardiac surgical ICUs.

Spectral microvolt T-wave alternans testing has no prognostic value in patients recently hospitalized with decompensated heart failure

AIMS

Microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) testing identifies beat-to-beat fluctuations in T-wave morphology, which have been linked to ventricular arrhythmias. However, clinical studies have produced conflicting results and data in heart failure (HF) have been limited. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and incremental prognostic value of spectral MTWA testing in an unselected cohort of patients recently hospitalized with HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutive admissions with confirmed HF were recruited, and survivors were invited to attend 1 month post-discharge for MTWA testing. A total of 648 of 1003 enrolled patients returned for MTWA testing (58% male, mean age 71 years). Forty-nine per cent were ineligible due to AF, pacemaker dependency, or inability to exercise. Of the 330 MTWA test results, 30% were positive, 24% negative, and 46% indeterminate. Overall, 268 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 3.1 (interquartile range 1.9-3.9) years. Of the ineligible patients, 48% died vs. 35% of eligible patients (P < 0.001). Of those patients with positive, negative, and indeterminate tests, 27, 35, and 40%, respectively, died (P = 0.12). Even when analysed as non-negative (positive/indeterminate) vs. negative, there was still no between-group difference in mortality (P = 0.95). MTWA results categorized as positive, negative, or indeterminate showed no incremental prognostic value in a multivariable model, which included BNP. Paradoxically, when compared in a binary fashion with a non-negative result, a negative test was an independent predictor of death, as was ineligibility for MTWA testing.

CONCLUSION

Spectral MTWA testing was not widely applicable and failed to predict mortality, and so cannot be endorsed as a risk stratification tool in HF.

Clinical significance of surgery for gastric submucosal tumours with size enlargement during watchful waiting period

BACKGROUND

The true impact of surgery for small, asymptomatic and biopsy-negative gastric submucosal tumours (SMTs) with size enlargement during 'watchful waiting' period has not been fully understood.

METHODS

From 2005 to 2012, 100 patients with gastric SMTs underwent surgery. Twenty-three of them with size enlargement during observation period were enrolled in the retrospective analysis. Data included clinicopathologic findings, genetic findings, operative outcomes and prognoses.

RESULTS

All patients (13 males, 10 females), with median age of 54 (41-71), had their lesions detected by routine health check-up (n=21) or incidentally (2). The tumours were 1.8 (0.5-4.0)cm in size at their initial detection, and enlarged up to 3.2 (2.0-7.0)cm at the operation during 63.0 (14.6-233.7) months. As surgical procedure, laparoscopic partial gastrectomy accounted for the majority (78.3%). Histologic examination revealed gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) (21) and schwannoma (2). Although 16 out of 21 GISTs were categorised into 'Very low' (1), and 'Low' (13) risk according to Fletcher's classification, 'Intermediate' (5) and 'High' (2) risk were identified in the series. No recurrences/metastases were noted in 23.2 (0.9-87) months of postoperative follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed the existence of high mitotic GISTs in asymptomatic, small gastric SMTs with size enlargement, and laparoscopic surgery was safely applied to majority of those cases. Prompt surgical intervention should therefore be considered for those lesions.

Risk stratification after myocardial infarction: is left ventricular ejection fraction enough to prevent sudden cardiac death?

Patients who have experienced a myocardial infarction (MI) are at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). With the advent of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), accurate risk stratification has become very relevant. Numerous investigations have proven that a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) significantly increases the SCD risk. Furthermore, ICD implantation in patients with reduced LVEF confers significant survival benefit. As a result, LVEF is the cornerstone of current decision making for prophylactic ICD implantation after MI. However, LVEF as standalone risk stratifier has major limitations: (i) the majority of SCD cases occur in patients with preserved or moderately reduced LVEF, (ii) only relatively few patients with reduced LVEF will benefit from an ICD (most will never experience a threatening arrhythmic event, others have a high risk for non-sudden death), (iii) a reduced LVEF is a risk factor for both sudden and non-sudden death. Several other non-invasive and invasive risk stratifiers, such as ventricular ectopy, QRS duration, signal-averaged electrocardiogram, microvolt T-wave alternans, markers of autonomic tone as well as programmed ventricular stimulation, have been evaluated. However, none of these techniques has unequivocally demonstrated the efficacy when applied alone or in combination with LVEF. Apart from their limited sensitivity, most of them are risk factors for both sudden and non-sudden death. Considering the multiple mechanisms involved in SCD, it seems unlikely that a single test will prove adequate for all patients. A combination of clinical characteristics with selected stratification tools may significantly improve risk stratification in the future.

Breast Arterial Calcification: a New Marker of Cardiovascular Risk?

Mammographically-detected breast arterial calcifications (BAC) are considered to be an incidental finding without clinical importance since they are not associated with increased risk of breast cancer. The goal of this article is to review existing evidence that the presence of BAC on mammography correlates with several (but not all) traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and with prevalent and incident CVD. Thus, BAC detected during routine mammography is a noteworthy finding that could be valuable in identifying asymptomatic women at increased future CVD risk that may be candidates for more aggressive management. In addition, there are notable differences in measures of subclinical atherosclerosis burden in women (ie, coronary artery calcification) by race/ethnic background, and the same appears to be true for BAC, although data are very limited. Another noteworthy limitation of prior research on BAC is the reliance on absence vs presence of BAC; no study to date has determined gradation of BAC. Further research is thus required to elucidate the role of BAC gradation in the prediction of CVD outcomes and to determine whether adding BAC gradation to prediction models based on traditional risk factors improves classification of CVD risk.

Ageing and Brugada syndrome: considerations and recommendations

Brugada syndrome is an inherited disease associated with an increased risk of lethal ventricular arrhythmias. Such arrhythmias stem from innate disruptions in cardiac electrophysiology. Typically, such arrhythmias occur in the third or fourth decade of life. However, Brugada syndrome may also affect geriatric patients. In this paper, we focus on the ageing patient with Brugada syndrome, and specifically, on the interaction between Brugada syndrome and the more usually acquired clinical problems that may occur with increasing age, such as the use of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular drugs, or the need for surgery. Such common conditions may also disrupt cardiac electrophysiology, thereby conferring added risk for Brugada syndrome patients. We present some considerations and recommendations that may serve as guidance to address these complexities.

High-sensitive cardiac troponin T

Cardiac troponin is the preferred biomarker for the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The recent development of a high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) assay permits detection of very low levels of cTnT. Using the hs-cTnT assay improves the overall diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected AMI, while a negative result also has a high negative predictive value. The gain in sensitivity may be particularly important in patients with a short duration from symptom onset to admission. Measurement of cardiac troponin T with the hs-cTnT assay may provide strong prognostic information in patients with acute coronary syndromes, stable coronary artery disease, heart failure and even in the general population; however, increased sensitivity comes at a cost of decreased specificity. Serial testing, as well as clinical context and co-existing diseases, are likely to become increasingly important for the interpretation of hs-cTnT assay results.

Clinical utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide for risk stratification of patients with acute decompensated heart failure. Derivation and validation of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score

BACKGROUND

NT-proBNP has been associated with prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Whether NT-proBNP provides additional prognostic information beyond that obtained from standard clinical variables is uncertain. We sought to assess whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) determination improves risk reclassification of patients with ADHF and to develop and validate a point-based NT-proBNP risk score.

METHODS

This study included 824 patients with ADHF (453 in the derivation cohort, 371 in the validation cohort). We compared two multivariable models predicting 1-year all-cause mortality, including clinical variables and clinical variables plus NT-proBNP. We calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Then, we developed and externally validated the NT-proBNP risk score.

RESULTS

One-year mortalities for the derivation and validation cohorts were 28.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Multivariable predictors of mortality included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, sodium, hemoglobin, left ventricular ejection fraction, and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation. Adding NT-proBNP to the clinical variables only model significantly improved the NRI (0.129; p=0.0027) and the IDI (0.037; p=0.0005). In the derivation cohort, the NT-proBNP risk score had a C index of 0.839 (95% CI: 0.798-0.880) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 1.23 (p=0.542), indicating good calibration. In the validation cohort, the risk score had a C index of 0.768 (95% CI: 0.711-0.817); the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 2.76 (p=0.251), after recalibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The NT-proBNP risk score provides clinicians with a contemporary, accurate, easy-to-use, and validated predictive tool. Further validation in other datasets is advisable.

Biomarkers in atrial fibrillation: a clinical review

Assessment of atrial fibrillation (AF)-associated stroke risk is at present mainly based on clinical risk scores such as CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, although these scores provide only modest discrimination of risk for individual patients. Biomarkers derived from the blood may help refine risk assessment in AF for stroke outcomes and for mortality. Recent studies of biomarkers in AF have shown that they can substantially improve risk stratification. Cardiac biomarkers, such as troponin and natriuretic peptides, significantly improve risk stratification in addition to current clinical risk stratification models. Similar findings have recently been described for markers of renal function, coagulation, and inflammation in AF populations based on large randomized prospective clinical trials or large community-based cohorts. These new findings may enable development of novel tools to improve clinical risk assessment in AF. Biomarkers in AF may also improve the understanding of the pathophysiology of AF further as well as potentially elucidate novel treatment targets. This review will highlight novel associations of biomarkers and outcomes in AF as well as recent progress in the use of biomarkers for risk stratification.

Defining clinical deterioration

OBJECTIVES

To review literature reporting adverse events and physiological instability in order to develop frameworks that describe and define clinical deterioration in hospitalised patients.

METHODS

Literature review of publications from 1960 to August 2012. Conception and refinement of models to describe clinical deterioration based on prevailing themes that developed chronologically in adverse event literature.

RESULTS

We propose four frameworks or models that define clinical deterioration and discuss the utility of each. Early attempts used retrospective chart review and focussed on the end result of deterioration (adverse events) and iatrogenesis. Subsequent models were also retrospective, but used discrete complications (e.g. sepsis, cardiac arrest) to define deterioration, had a more clinical focus, and identified the concept of antecedent physiological instability. Current models for defining clinical deterioration are based on the presence of abnormalities in vital signs and other clinical observations and attempt to prospectively assist clinicians in predicting subsequent risk. However, use of deranged vital signs in isolation does not consider important patient-, disease-, or system-related factors that are known to adversely affect the outcome of hospitalised patients. These include pre-morbid function, frailty, extent and severity of co-morbidity, nature of presenting illness, delays in responding to deterioration and institution of treatment, and patient response to therapy.

CONCLUSION

There is a need to develop multiple-variable models for deteriorating ward patients similar to those used in intensive care units. Such models may assist clinician education, prospective and real-time patient risk stratification, and guide quality improvement initiatives that prevent and improve response to clinical deterioration.

History of allergy is a predictor of adverse events in unstable angina treated with coronary angioplasty

BACKGROUND

The aim was to investigate prognostic relevance of history of allergy in subjects with unstable angina treated with coronary angioplasty.

METHODS

Fifty-seven consecutive patients with unstable angina who underwent coronary angioplasty were enrolled in the study and were divided into two groups: those with a history of allergy (Group A, N = 15); and controls (Group C, N =42). Major adverse cardiac events were recorded over a six-month follow-up period. Patients with primary or unsuccessful angioplasty and patients treated with drug eluting stent were excluded from the study.

RESULTS

Group A patients (history of allergy) showed a 46.67% incidence of major adverse cardiac events at six-month follow-up (vs. 9.52% Group C, p < 0.01): results remained significant even in a multiple Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio 7.17, 95% CI 1.71-29.98, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

History of allergy is an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events after coronary angioplasty in a six-month follow-up period in unstable angina.

Pulmonary embolism, part I: Epidemiology, risk factors and risk stratification, pathophysiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and nonthrombotic pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism is an important clinical entity with considerable mortality despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. In the present article, the authors offer a comprehensive review focused mainly on epidemiology, risk factors, risk stratification, pathophysiological considerations and clinical presentation. Diagnosis based on assessment of clinical likelihood, electrocardiography, chest x-ray, D-dimer levels, markers of myocardial injury and overload, and blood gases is discussed in detail. Special attention is devoted to the clinical use of computed tomography, pulmonary angiography and echocardiography in the setting of pulmonary embolism.