The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors

IMPORTANCE

Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy.

OBJECTIVES

To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

DESIGN

We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages.

RESULTS

US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Sensing of amino acids by the gut-expressed taste receptor T1R1-T1R3 stimulates CCK secretion

CCK is secreted by endocrine cells of the proximal intestine in response to dietary components, including amino acids. CCK plays a variety of roles in digestive processes, including inhibition of food intake, consistent with a role in satiety. In the lingual epithelium, the sensing of a broad spectrum of L-amino acids is accomplished by the heteromeric amino acid (umami) taste receptor (T1R1-T1R3). T1R1 and T1R3 subunits are also expressed in the intestine. A defining characteristic of umami sensing by T1R1-T1R3 is its potentiation by IMP or GMP. Furthermore, T1R1-T1R3 is not activated by Trp. We show here that, in response to L-amino acids (Phe, Leu, Glu, and Trp), but not D-amino acids, STC-1 enteroendocrine cells and mouse proximal small intestinal tissue explants secrete CCK and that IMP enhances Phe-, Leu-, and Glu-induced, but not Trp-induced, CCK secretion. Furthermore, small interfering RNA inhibition of T1R1 expression in STC-1 cells results in significant diminution of Phe-, Leu-, and Glu-stimulated, but not Trp-stimulated, CCK release. In STC-1 cells and mouse intestine, gurmarin inhibits Phe-, Leu-, and Glu-induced, but not Trp-stimulated, CCK secretion. In contrast, the Ca(2+)-sensing receptor antagonist NPS2143 inhibits Phe-stimulated CCK release partially and Trp-induced CCK secretion totally in mouse intestine. However, NPS2143 has no effect on Leu- or Glu-induced CCK secretion. Collectively, our data demonstrate that functional characteristics and cellular location of the gut-expressed T1R1-T1R3 support its role as a luminal sensor for Phe-, Leu-, and Glu-induced CCK secretion.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Abstract P3-08-01: The prospective risk of ovarian cancer in 1433 women in a breast cancer family history clinic: no increased risk in families testing negative for BRCA1 and BRCA2

Since the identification of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes speculation has continued regarding the breast and ovarian cancer risk associated with mutations in these genes. Also, as to whether mutations in these genes account for the majority of the association between breast and ovarian cancer. Identification of RAD51C and RAD51D mutations in breast/ovarian cancer families has reawakened the debate as to whether it is safe to reassure women from BRCA negative families that they are not at increased risk of ovarian cancer. 1433 women from breast cancer families that had tested negative for BRCA1/2 were followed for a total of between 0.04 and 25 years and checked against a cancer registry for ovarian cancer incidence. Data was censored at ovarian cancer diagnosis, oophorectomy or death. During 16358 women years of follow up no invasive epithelial ovarian cancer occurred, although 2 borderline tumors were diagnosed. Expected rates for this cohort from cancer registry data were 2.75 epithelial ovarian tumors with 2.52 for invasive cancer and 0.23 for borderline tumors. The upper confidence limit for invasive RR was 1.3 and for borderline tumors 0.97–31. In conclusion this the largest prospective follow up of a BRCA negative cohort has demonstrated that there is no increase in risk of invasive ovarian cancer in families that have tested negative for BRCA1/2.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-08-01.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach.

METHODS

We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004.

FINDINGS

13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously.

INTERPRETATION

This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk of cancer other than breast or ovarian in individuals with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations

The risks of cancers other than breast and ovarian amongst BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers are based on relatively few family based studies with the risk of specific cancers tested in population based samples of cancers from founder populations. We assessed risks of "other cancers" in 268 BRCA1 families and 222 BRCA2 families using a person years at risk analysis from 1975 to 2005. Cancer confirmations were overall higher than in previous family based studies at 64%. There was no overall increase in risk for BRCA1 carriers although oesophagus had a significant increased RR of 2.9 (95% CI 1.1-6.0) and stomach at 2.4 (95% CI 1.2-4.3), these were based mainly on unconfirmed cases. For BRCA2 increased risks for cancers of the pancreas (RR 4.1, 95% CI 1.9-7.8) and prostate (RR 6.3, 95% CI 4.3-9.0) and uveal melanoma (RR 99.4, 95% CI 11.1-359.8) were confirmed. Possible new associations with oesophagus (RR 4.1, 95% CI 1.9-7.8) and stomach (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-4.8) were detected but these findings should be treated with caution due to lower confirmation rates. In contrast to previous research a higher risk of prostate cancer was found in males with mutations in the BRCA2 OCCR region. The present study strengthens the known links between BRCA2 and pancreatic and prostate cancer, but throws further doubt onto any association with BRCA1. New associations with upper gastro-intestinal malignancy need to be treated with caution and confirmed by large prospective studies.

Worldwide risk factors for heart failure: a systematic review and pooled analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure risk factors are diverse and likely to vary among world regions. Systematic review and pooled analysis were used to describe contributions of major underlying risk factors for heart failure in six world regions.

METHODS

Electronic databases were systematically searched, and 37 clinic-based studies representing 40 countries published in 1980-2008 and reporting underlying risk factors for heart failure were included. Risk factors were classified as ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertension, rheumatic/other valvular heart disease, cardiopulmonary disease, cardiomyopathy, and "other". Crude and age- and sex-adjusted risk factor prevalences were estimated for each region using a regression analysis, under specifications of overlapping as well as additive contributions.

RESULTS

Many heart failure cases were assigned multiple underlying risk factors, leading to a considerable overlap. Crude IHD prevalence among heart failure patients was >50% in Europe and North America, approximately 30-40% in East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, and <10% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Age and sex adjustment attenuated regional differences in IHD-as-risk factor but IHD remained rare in Sub-Saharan Africa. Hypertension prevalence was high in heart failure patients of all regions but the highest in Eastern and Central Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa (age- and sex-adjusted, 35.0% and 32.6%, respectively). Cardiomyopathy was most common in Latin America, the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa (age- and sex-adjusted, 19.8% and 25.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure risk factors vary substantially among world regions. More detailed regional heart failure epidemiology studies are needed in order to quantify the global burden of heart failure and identify regional prevention and treatment strategies.

Impact on cardiovascular disease events of the implementation of Argentina's national tobacco control law

BACKGROUND

Argentina's congress passed a tobacco control law that would enforce 100% smoke-free environments for the entire country, strong and pictorial health warnings on tobacco products and a comprehensive advertising ban. However, the Executive Branch continues to review the law and it has not been fully implemented. Our objective was to project the potential impact of full implementation of this tobacco control legislation on cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model was used to project future cardiovascular events. Data sources for the model included vital statistics, morbidity and mortality data, and tobacco use estimates from the National Risk Factor Survey. Estimated effectiveness of interventions was based on a literature review. Results were expressed as life-years, myocardial infarctions and strokes saved in an 8-year-period between 2012 and 2020. In addition we projected the incremental effectiveness on the same outcomes of a tobacco price increase not included in the law.

RESULTS

In the period 2012-2020, 7500 CHD deaths, 16 900 myocardial infarctions and 4300 strokes could be avoided with the full implementation and enforcement of this law. Annual per cent reduction would be 3% for CHD deaths, 3% for myocardial infarctions and 1% for stroke. If a tobacco price increase is implemented the projected avoided CHD deaths, myocardial infarctions and strokes would be 15 500, 34 600 and 11 900, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of the tobacco control law would produce significant public health benefits in Argentina. Strong advocacy is needed at national and international levels to get this law implemented throughout Argentina.

Utility of self-reported diagnosis and electrocardiogram Q-waves for estimating myocardial infarction prevalence: an international comparison study

OBJECTIVE

Self-report of physician diagnosis and ECG 'Q' waves are common survey measures of prior myocardial infarction (MI) prevalence. We sought to assess relative prevalence of self-reported prior MI and ECG Q-waves (ECG-MI) in populations and population subgroups with varying MI prevalence.

DESIGN

A secondary analysis of seven population-based cross-sectional surveys of prevalent MI selected from a systematic review of ischaemic heart disease epidemiology.

SETTING

Men and women aged 45-74 years in population-based Belgian surveys (1978--1998, n=29 419) and US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1976-1994, n=11 107). Comparison of the US and Belgian surveys with surveys in seven other nations (United Kingdom, Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, India, Turkey and Ghana).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of prior MI measured by self-report or resting ECG Q-waves (ECG-MI; Minnesota ECG codes 1.1 and 1.2).

RESULTS

Self-reported prior MI prevalence was 1.5-2.6 times higher than ECG-MI in Belgian and US men aged 45-74 years and women 55-74 years. ECG-MI was more prevalent than self-reported MI in women <55 years old, and self-reported MI relatively low in US African-American men compared with US Caucasian men. In the overall nine-nation comparison, there was no consistent relationship between self-reported MI and ECG-MI. ECG-MI was higher relative to self-report in nations with lower prevalence of ischaemic heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported MI and ECG-MI prevalence may only be reliable in higher ischaemic heart disease incidence groups. Self-report and ECG-MI have limited accuracy, and ECG Q-waves likely capture fewer prior MIs in the 21st century. The limitations of current survey prevalence measures of MI should be taken into account when measuring the burden of ischaemic heart disease in populations.

Development of associations among central adiposity, adiponectin and insulin sensitivity from adolescence to young adulthood

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations of central adiposity, serum adiponectin and clamp-derived insulin sensitivity in a single longitudinal cohort from early adolescence to young adulthood.

METHODS

The cohort was examined three times at mean ages 15 years (n = 308), 19 years (n = 218) and 22 years (n = 163). Insulin sensitivity was measured with the euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp. Circulating adiponectin was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Computed tomography scans were used at mean age 22 to compute subcutaneous and visceral abdominal fat volume. Partial Pearson correlations and linear regression were used to examine cross-sectional associations at each examination.

RESULTS

The moderate negative correlation between waist circumference and adiponectin was significant and essentially unchanged from mean age 15 (-0.32, P < 0.0001) to mean age 22 (-0.29, P < 0.002), whereas the negative correlation between waist circumference and insulin sensitivity and the positive correlation between adiponectin and insulin sensitivity increased steadily in magnitude to mean age 22 (-0.29, P = 0.0002; and 0.32, P < 0.0001, respectively). In regression models including both visceral and subcutaneous fat, only visceral fat was significantly associated with insulin sensitivity, while only subcutaneous fat was nearly significantly associated with adiponectin.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that the significant negative relationship between waist circumference and adiponectin predated the development of significant relationships between insulin sensitivity and both waist circumference and adiponectin. It also shows that adiponectin is more closely related to subcutaneous fat and insulin sensitivity is more closely related to visceral fat in young adults.

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China

OBJECTIVES

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.

METHODS

Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.

RESULTS

Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Second hand smoke and cardiovascular disease in Low and Middle Income Countries: a case for action

Second hand tobacco smoke (SHS) is an environmental toxin and an established cause of cardiovascular disease in nonsmokers. Smoke free laws reduce SHS and its downstream cardiovascular disease, but until recently evidence to support smoke free law implementation in low and middle income country settings was limited. In 14 low and middle income nations surveyed by the Global Adult Tobacco Survey active smoking prevalence in adults (≥15 years old) was universally higher in males (range 21.6-60.2%) compared with females (0.5-24.4%), and the highest burden of SHS exposure was in women (strong positive association between male/female active smoking ratio and female SHS exposure prevalence). A systematic review was conducted of MEDLINE-indexed studies of self-reported SHS exposure and cardiovascular harms in low or middle income nations. Eight papers reported the association of SHS with ischemic heart disease and four reported the association of SHS with stroke. For all the studies, and almost all sources of SHS surveyed, a strong positive association between SHS and ischemic heart disease (main relative odds ratio range 1.17-2.36) and SHS and stroke (odds ratio or hazard ratio 1.41-1.49). Prevalence of SHS exposure is high in low and middle income nations, especially among women. Epidemiologic evidence supports the conclusion that SHS harms are the same across low, middle and high income nations. Governments have an obligation to protect citizens from SHS exposure, enforcing smoke-free legislation and providing public education about SHS harms.

Obstetric complications and psychological well-being: experiences of Bangladeshi women during pregnancy and childbirth

Women in developing countries experience postnatal depression at rates that are comparable with or higher than those in developed countries. However, their personal experiences during pregnancy and childbirth have received little attention in relation to postnatal depression. In particular, the contribution of obstetric complications to their emotional well-being during the postpartum period is still not clearly understood. This study aimed to (a) describe the pregnancy and childbirth experiences among women in Bangladesh during normal childbirth or obstetric complications and (b) examine the relationship between these experiences and their psychological well-being during the postpartum period. Two groups of women--one group with obstetric complications (n=173) and the other with no obstetric complications (n=373)--were selected from a sample of women enrolled in a community-based study in Matlab, Bangladesh. The experiences during pregnancy and childbirth were assessed in terms of a five-point rating scale from 'severely uncomfortable=1' to 'not uncomfortable at all=5'. The psychological status of the women was assessed using a validated local version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) at six weeks postpartum. Categorical data were analyzed using the chi-square test and continuous data by analysis of variance. Women with obstetric complications reported significantly more negative experiences during their recent childbirth [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-1.61, p<0.001] compared to those with normal childbirth. There was a significant main effect on emotional well-being due to experiences of pregnancy [F (4,536)=4.96, p=0.001] and experiences of childbirth [F (4,536)=3.29, p=0.01]. The EPDS mean scores for women reporting severe uncomfortable pregnancy and childbirth experiences were significantly higher than those reporting no such problems. After controlling for the background characteristics, postpartum depression was significantly associated with women reporting a negative childbirth experience. Childbirth experiences of women can provide important information on possible cases of postnatal depression.

Relation of chemokines to BMI and insulin resistance at ages 18-21

OBJECTIVE

In obesity, adipose tissue becomes a significant source of chemokines and inflammatory cytokines that are associated with chronic systemic low-grade inflammation and may lead to insulin resistance. Studies in children have mainly focused on inflammatory cytokines and there are limited data for chemokines in adolescents and young adults. We studied the relation of chemokines to cardiovascular (CV)-risk factors, insulin resistance and adipocytokines in 18-21-year-old individuals.

SUBJECTS AND DESIGN

Cross-sectional data collected in a cohort originally enrolled at mean age 13, with data for the present study obtained from 252 examined at age 18.7±0.1 years.

METHODS

Multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the associations among chemokines (monocyte chemotactic protein-1, macrophage inflammatory protein-1β (MIP-1β), visfatin and interleukin-8 (IL-8)) and between chemokines and body mass index (BMI), glucose, lipids, blood pressure (BP), insulin resistance (euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp) and adipocytokines (IL-6, TNF-α and adiponectin).

RESULTS

Chemokine levels were significantly intercorrelated. Significant associations (P<0.05) with adjustment for age, race and sex included: MIP-1β with waist circumference and IL-6, IL-8 with systolic BP and visfatin with IL-6. No other significant relations were found between the chemokines and the other variables. Further adjustment for BMI did not alter these conclusions.

CONCLUSION

Considered in the context of prior studies in children and adults, these results suggest that in large part, the association between chemokines and CV risk or inflammatory factors does not appear to develop until adult life.