Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning for Exotic Disease Introductions

Globalisation has greatly enhanced opportunities for the spread of infectious diseases throughout the world, giving rise to serious threats to human and animal health. This is illustrated by the recent introduction and subsequent spread of West Nile virus in the USA, and outbreaks of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in South-East Asia. It is therefore becoming increasingly important that national (and potentially regional) governments should not only have robust systems in place to reduce the risk of disease introductions, but that they need to also consider how to identify and deal with outbreaks of pathogens in wild and domestic animals. In this chapter we will discuss the roles of risk assessment and contingency planning in the management of exotic disease risks involving wild mammals.

The principal purpose of contingency planning is to ensure that a State of preparedness exists in the event of a disease introduction. This requires that the most likely risks of pathogen introduction are identified, that there are adequate means of detecting the pathogen's presence, and that a set of instructions exists describing the best available methods for its rapid and cost-effective containment and control. Contingency planning will involve some of the approaches to disease surveillance (Chapter 10) and management (Chapters 6–8) discussed in other chapters, and so will entail many of the associated challenges, costs and benefits. However, as the aim of a contingency plan is likely to be the rapid containment and subsequent elimination of a pathogen (that is either exotic or endemic but emergent) within a restricted area, the methods of management should reflect this urgency. This may mean that it is appropriate to deploy more severe or costly measures over a short period than would be considered for the sustained control of an endemic pathogen.

Alkaline hydrolysis of mouse-adapted scrapie for inactivation and disposal of prion-positive material

Prion diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, chronic wasting disease, and scrapie pose serious risks to human and animal health due to a host of disease-specific factors, including the resistance of infectious prions (PrP(Sc)) to natural degradation and to most commercial inactivation procedures. In an attempt to address this concern, a mouse model was used to compare the efficacy of an alkaline hydrolysis process with a simulated continuous-flow rendering treatment for disposal of PrP(Sc)-infected biological material. Female C57/BL6 mice (N = 120) were randomly divided into 4 treatment groups (n = 30), and each mouse was injected intraperitoneally with their designated treatment inoculum. Treatment groups 1 and 2 served as the positive and negative controls, respectively. Group 3 was inoculated with rendered scrapie-positive mouse brain material to investigate the effectiveness of simulated continuous-flow rendering practices to reduce or eliminate PrP(Sc). Group 4 was inoculated with hydrolyzed scrapie-positive mouse brain material to determine the sterilizing effect of alkaline hydrolysis on PrP(Sc). Mice were monitored for overt signs of disease, and those showing clinical signs were killed to prevent undue suffering. Brains were obtained from all mice that died (or were killed) and analyzed with an ELISA for the presence of PrP(Sc). Results indicated that the simulated continuous-flow rendering treatment used for preparing the rendering treatment group inoculum failed to completely eliminate PrP(Sc). Rendering delayed, but did not stop, clinical mouse-adapted scrapie transmission. Compared with positive controls, the rendering treatment group experienced an approximate 45-d average delay in days to death (250 vs. 205 d for positive controls; P < 0.0001) and a death loss of 73.9% (P = 0.0094). Positive controls suffered 100% death loss. The results validated the efficacy of the alkaline hydrolysis treatment to inactivate all PrP(Sc) because no alkaline hydrolysis treatment group mice succumbed to the disease (P < 0.0001). Based on our results, alkaline hydrolysis should be considered by the animal rendering and beef packing industries as an alternative to incineration, landfill burial, and rendering for disposing of biological material potentially infected or contaminated with prion disease.

Managing wildlife populations with uncertainty: cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo

Managing wildlife populations for conservation, control or harvesting involves uncertainty. Nevertheless, decisions need to be made based on the available evidence. The two main sources of uncertainty in population modelling are parameter estimates and structural uncertainty. Structural uncertainty in models is not included as often as parameter uncertainty.We present an approach where parameter and structural uncertainty (strength of density dependence) is included within a model, using the over-wintering English population of cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo L. Because of the damage caused to inland fishery interests by cormorants, there was a change in UK government policy in autumn 2004, increasing the numbers of birds that can be shot under licence.A stochastic Monte Carlo annual population model was produced to examine the effect of changes to the numbers of birds shot each year. Indices of annual population size were converted to population estimates and used to determine annual growth rates and strength of density dependence.There is strong evidence for density dependence in the data, which suggests the population is currently slightly above carrying capacity, with a mean growth rate of 4-6% per annum. The 1300 birds shot under licence in 2004/05 represent about 4.5% of the English population, and if this level of culling continues, the population would be expected to decline by 9% by 2007, compared to the long-term average. The a priori preferred model, which included all uncertainty, gave predictions for 2004/05 and 2005/06 in close agreement with field data.The model was used to produce short-term population projections, with the understanding that Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) will be adopted to iteratively update the parameters and model each year, feeding back into the numbers of available licences.Synthesis and applications. We recommend the approach used in this study of including parameter and structural uncertainty within a single model, where possible, with the proportion of iterations that utilize a particular structure dependent on the weight of evidence for that structure. This will produce results with wider confidence intervals, but ensures that the evidence for any particular model is not over-interpreted.

Atypical antipsychotic drugs induce derangements in glucose homeostasis by acutely increasing glucagon secretion and hepatic glucose output in the rat

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Use of the second-generation antipsychotic drugs (SGAs) results in the development of obesity and a type 2 diabetes-like syndrome. We hypothesised that, in addition to the insulin resistance associated with the obesity, the SGAs might have acute effects on glucose metabolism that could contribute to the derangements in glucose metabolism.

METHODS

We investigated the effects of therapeutically relevant levels of three different antipsychotic medications (haloperidol, quetiapine and clozapine) on glucose tolerance, measures of insulin resistance and hepatic glucose production, and on insulin and glucagon secretion in rats.

RESULTS

We found that these drugs induce impaired glucose tolerance in rats that is associated with increased insulin secretion (clozapine>quetiapine>haloperidol) but is independent of weight gain. However, Akt/protein kinase B activation is normal, and at these levels of drug there was no effect on insulin action in fat cells or soleus muscle, and no effect on insulin sensitivity as evaluated by insulin tolerance tests. We show that clozapine induces increased glucose levels following pyruvate and glycerol challenges, indicating an increase in hepatic glucose output (HGO). Increased HGO would in turn increase insulin release and would explain the apparent phenotype mimicking insulin resistance. We provide evidence that this effect could at least in part be mediated by a stimulation of glucagon secretion.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our findings indicate that SGAs can cause acute derangements in glucose metabolism that are not caused by a direct induction of insulin resistance but act via an increase in glucagon secretion and thus stimulation of hepatic glucose production.

Risk associated with transportation and lairage on hide contamination with Salmonella enterica in finished beef cattle at slaughter

Transportation of cattle to the slaughter plant could influence hide contamination with Salmonella enterica. Fecal and hide samples were obtained from 40 lots of cattle at the feedlot and again at the slaughter plant. Potential risk factors for hide contamination were evaluated. A multilevel Poisson regression model was used to determine whether transportation and lairage were associated with hide contamination by Salmonella. Cattle with hide samples positive for Salmonella at the feedlot had twice the risk of having positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle without positive feedlot hide samples (relative risk [RR], 1.9). Cattle transported in trailers from which samples positive for Salmonella were collected had twice the risk of having positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle transported in culture-negative trailers (RR, 2.3). Cattle transported for long distances had twice the risk of having positive hide samples at slaughter compared with cattle transported shorter distances (RR, 2.3). Cattle held in lairage pens contaminated with feces had twice the risk of having positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle held in clean pens (RR, 1.8). Cattle held off feed longer than 18 h before loading had twice the risk of having positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle held off feed for shorter times (RR, 1.7). Cattle that were agitated during loading had twice the risk of having positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle that were calm (RR, 2.2). These findings suggest that variables associated with transportation and lairage can impact the presence of Salmonella on the hides of cattle at slaughter.

Report of Trichinella spiralis in a red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in Northern Ireland

No systematic studies of the occurrence of Trichinella in wildlife have been carried out in Northern Ireland (NI) in recent years, and the last reports of trichinellosis in livestock and human outbreaks in NI date back to 1979 and 1945, respectively. In this study, covering the period 2003/2004 and 2007/2008, a total of 443 red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were collected throughout the country and screened for trichinellosis using a modified muscle digest method. One examined animal was found to be infected with larvae from Trichinella spiralis, indicating a national prevalence in NI of Trichinella in foxes of 0.2%. This prevalence compares well to the findings reported from the bordering Republic of Ireland [Rafter, P., Marucci, G., Brangan, P., Pozio, E., 2005. Rediscovery of Trichinella spiralis in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Ireland after 30 years of oblivion. J. Infect. 50, 61-65] and could be a further indication for a sylvatic Trichinella life cycle existing independently from the domestic cycle.

National Beef Quality Audit-2005: survey of targeted cattle and carcass characteristics related to quality, quantity, and value of fed steers and heifers

The National Beef Quality Audit-2005 assessed the current status of quality and consistency of US fed steers and heifers. Hide colors or breed type were black (56.3%), red (18.6%), Holstein (7.9%), gray (6.0%), yellow (4.9%), brown (3.0%), white (2.3%), and brindle (1.0%). Identification method and frequency were lot visual tags (63.2%), individual visual tags (38.7%), metal-clip tags (11.8%), electronic tags (3.5%), bar-coded tags (0.3%), by other means (2.5%), and without identification (9.7%). Brand frequencies were no (61.3%), 1 (35.1%), and 2 or more (3.6%), and brands were located on the butt (26.5%), side (7.4%), and shoulder (1.2%). There were 22.3% of cattle without horns, and the majority of those with horns (52.2%) were between 2.54 and 12.7 cm in length. Percentages of animals with mud or manure on specific body locations were none (25.8%), legs (61.4%), belly (55.9%), side (22.6%), and top-line (10.0%). Permanent incisor number and occurrence were zero (82.2%), 1 (5.2%), 2 (9.9%), 3 (0.4%), 4 (1.2%), 5 (0.1%), 6 (0.3%), 7 (0.0%), and 8 (0.7%). Most carcasses (64.8%) were not bruised, 25.8% had one bruise, and 9.4% had multiple bruises. Bruise location and incidence were round (10.6%), loin (32.6%), rib (19.5%), chuck (27.0%), and brisket, flank, and plate (10.3%). Condemnation item and incidence were liver (24.7%), lungs (11.5%), tripe (11.6%), heads (6.0%), tongues (9.7%), and carcasses (0.0%). Carcass evaluation revealed these traits and frequencies: steer (63.7%), heifer (36.2%), bullock (0.05%), and cow (0.04%) sex classes; dark-cutters (1.9%); A (97.1%), B (1.7%), and C or older (1.2%) overall maturities; and native (90.9%), dairy-type (8.3%), and Bos indicus (0.8%) estimated breed types. Mean USDA yield grade (YG) traits were USDA YG (2.9), HCW (359.9 kg), adjusted fat thickness (1.3 cm), LM area (86.4 cm(2)), and KPH (2.3%). The USDA YG were YG 1 (16.5%), YG 2 (36.3%), YG 3 (33.1%), YG 4 (11.8%), and YG 5 (2.3%). Mean USDA quality grade traits were USDA quality grade (Select(90)), marbling score (Small(32)), overall maturity (A(64)), lean maturity (A(57)), and skeletal maturity (A(68)). Marbling score distribution was Slightly Abundant or greater (2.7%), Moderate (4.3%), Modest (14.4%), Small (34.5%), Slight (41.2%), and Traces or less (2.9%). This information helps the beef industry measure progress and provides a benchmark for future educational and research activities.

Impact of transportation and lairage on hide contamination with Escherichia coli O157 in finished beef cattle

Transportation of cattle from the feedlot to the slaughter plant could influence hide contamination of Escherichia coli O157. A study was initiated to investigate the influence of transportation and lairage on shedding and hide contamination of E. coli O157. Fecal and hide samples were obtained from 40 pens of harvest-ready beef cattle at the feedlot prior to transport and again at the slaughter plant immediately after slaughter. Potential risk factors for hide contamination at the feedlot, during transport, and at slaughter were evaluated. A multilevel Poisson regression model was used to evaluate if transportation and lairage were associated with hide contamination by E. coli O157 in finished beef cattle. Lots of cattle held in E. coli O157-positive lairage pens had eight times greater risk of having positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle held in culture-negative pens (relative risk, 8.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 38.8). Lots of cattle that were held in lairage pens contaminated with feces had three times greater risk for positive slaughter hide samples compared with cattle held in clean pens (relative risk, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 7.9). Lots of cattle that were transported for long distances (> 160.9 km) had twice the risk of having positive hide samples at slaughter compared with cattle transported a shorter distance (relative risk, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.1). These findings suggest that transportation and lairage should be considered in E. coli O157 control strategies.

Post-slaughter traceability

Traceability programs can cover the whole of life, or parts of it, for individual animals or groups/lots of animals. Of 13 country or community traceability programs for cattle/beef, 11 are mandatory (4 encompass, or are scheduled to encompass, birth to retail; 7 cover birth to slaughter) while 2 are voluntary and encompass birth to slaughter. Of 10 country or community traceability programs for swine/pork, 2 are mandatory (1 covers birth to retail; 1 covers birth to slaughter) while 8 are voluntary. Of 6 country or community traceability programs for sheep/sheep-meat, 3 are mandatory (1 encompasses birth to retail; 2 encompass birth to slaughter) while 3 are voluntary. Mandatory birth to retail programs that include "post-slaughter individual animal identification (IAID) traceability" have been implemented for cattle/beef, swine/pork and sheep/sheep-meat by the European Union and for cattle/beef by Japan. Many of the voluntary as well as mandatory, birth to slaughter traceability programs for all three species are presumed (though that is not specified) to include "post-slaughter group/lot identification (GLID) traceability" - e.g., those qualifying products for shipment to the European Union. "Post-slaughter IAID traceability" can be accomplished in very-small, small, medium, large and very-large packing plants using single-carcass processing units, tagging and separation/segregation, and/or deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) fingerprinting technology but all of these approaches are time-consuming and costly; and, to-date, in most countries, there has been no reason compelling enough to cause industry to adopt such protocols or technology.

Estimated compliance for removal of specified risk materials from 18 U.S. beef packing plants

The removal of 18,345 specified risk materials was observed during audits of 18 U.S. beef processing facilities that, in total, account for over 90% of total U.S. beef slaughtered. Audited plants varied in capacity (280 to 6,000 head per day) and processed both "fed (young cattle)" and "nonfed (mature cows/bulls)" cattle. When all observations for removal of specified risk materials were combined from plants and adjusted for type of cattle processed, overall compliance with specified risk material removal regulations was 98.08%. A 100% compliance rate for removal of brains and distal ileums was recorded based on a total of 600 observations for removal of brains and a total of 2,400 observations for removal of distal ileums. Observations for removal of dorsal root ganglia were collected from 16 of the 18 plants, and overall compliance for dorsal root ganglia removal was 99.6% (4,783 of 4,800). Fifteen of the 16 plants were 100% compliant. For tonsils, data from 18 plants were collected, and tonsils were correctly removed from 92.8% (4,777 of 5,145) of tongues and heads. Data for spinal cord removal were collected from 18 plants, and the spinal cord was removed completely in line with U.S. Department of Agriculture-Food Safety and Inspection Service regulations for 99.43% of the observations. Based on the results of this study, packing plants have demonstrated that they are complying with regulations for removal of specified risk materials from beef meat products intended for human consumption greater than 98% of the time. To continue to assure food safety and consumer confidence, continued vigilance and provision of training programs for plant workers are essential.

Antimicrobial activity of epsilon-polylysine against Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella Typhimurium, and Listeria monocytogenes in various food extracts

This study compared the antimicrobial effects of epsilon-polylysine (epsilon-PL) against Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella Typhimurium, and Listeria monocytogenes in 6 food extracts and in broth. The food extracts (10% (w/w) in distilled water) evaluated were fat-free and whole fat milk, beef, bologna, rice, and vegetables (50:50 ratio of broccoli and cauliflower). epsilon-PL was tested at 0.005% and 0.02% (w/v) against E. coli O157:H7 and L. monocytogenes, and 0.02% and 0.04% (w/v) against S. Typhimurium. The substrates were inoculated (5 log CFU/mL) and periodically analyzed for surviving populations during storage at 12 degrees C for 6 d. In general, all 3 pathogens reached 7 to 9 log CFU/mL within 2 d in control substrates (no epsilon-PL). Immediate bactericidal effects (P < 0.05) following exposure to epsilon-PL were obtained in the rice (all pathogens) and vegetable (E. coli O157:H7 and S. Typhimurium) extracts. During storage, antimicrobial effects of epsilon-PL were more pronounced in the food extracts than in the broth medium. The greatest antimicrobial activity for all 3 pathogens was obtained in the rice and vegetable extracts, where counts were reduced (P < 0.05) to below the detection limit (0.0 log CFU/mL) by one or both epsilon-PL concentrations tested. In the other food extracts (fat-free milk, whole fat milk, beef, and bologna), both epsilon-PL concentrations tested generally resulted in lower (P < 0.05) pathogen levels at the end of storage compared to initial counts, with better bactericidal effects exerted by the higher of the 2 epsilon-PL concentrations. Additional research is needed to explore the potential antimicrobial effects of epsilon-PL in real food systems.

Rabies risk in raccoon dogs and foxes

Raccoon dogs are seen as a new host for fox rabies in Europe. Disease spread in a community of species can change the epidemiology of the disease and calls for new disease control strategies. This study assesses the risk of a rabies outbreak, introduced to a community of foxes and raccoon dogs in Southern Finland, as an example of the reintroduction of rabies into rabies-free areas. Epidemiology is simulated with a two-species model, based on approaches for rabies in foxes and parameterised from recently published data on raccoon dog and fox ecology in Northeast Europe. The risk of the establishment of rabies was investigated. The effectiveness of vaccination control was estimated. Results show that rabies may not spread in a single species, when population densities are low, as in Finland. However, persistent epidemics are very likely in the species' community. The threshold density for a system of combined species decreases non-linearly, compared to the thresholds of each of the species. A behavioural factor that influences rabies epidemiology is raccoon dog hibernation, which may alter with climate change. Thus, the new host, the raccoon dog, has to be considered in defining new emergency control strategies for rabies free states in Europe.

An evaluation of central nervous system cross-contamination due to carcass splitting in commercial beef-packing plants

Four experiments were conducted in commercial beef-packing facilities The objectives of these experiments were to: (i) determine and validate a carcass sampling technique and location to determine if central nervous system (CNS) cross-contamination exists/occurs; (ii) determine if residual CNS tissue contamination remains on splitting saws after sanitation procedures; (iii) determine the prevalence of CNS cross-contamination in commercial slaughter facilities; (iv) determine whether washing treatments reduce or eliminate CNS tissue presence in carcass-splitting saws; (v) determine the effectiveness of commercial spray-washing systems in removing CNS tissue from beef carcasses; and (vi) compare residual CNS tissue levels on the blade and in the housings of the Jarvis Buster IX and Buster IV carcass-splitting saws. CNS tissue remained, albeit at very low levels, in the housings and on the blades of carcass-splitting saws after carcass splitting and operational sanitation. Additionally, after splitting carcasses, CNS tissue remaining in the splitting saw housings and on saw blades was found to cross-contaminate subsequent carcasses during splitting. Most splitting saw operational sanitation procedures reduced the amount of CNS tissue remaining in the splitting saw housings and on splitting saw blades, but no treatment eliminated CNS tissue from either to levels below the detection limit of the assay (6 ng/100 cm2). Washing in carcass spray-washing cabinets at three of the five commercial beef-packing facilities reduced, but did not eliminate, presence of CNS tissue in the aitch bone area of carcasses. Carcass spray washing in cabinets at three of the five facilities reduced (P < 0.05) the concentration of CNS tissue in the fourth thoracic vertebra area. While extremely low concentrations of CNS tissue remained in the splitting saw housings, on the splitting saw blades, and on carcasses, it is unknown whether these levels would pose a human food safety risk because the exact amount of bovine spongiform encephalopathy-infected spinal cord capable of transmitting the disease to humans is dependent on the infectivity titer, which is not readily known.

What is the future of wildlife rabies control in Europe?

Over the last fifteen years or so, classical rabies in terrestrial wildlife has been eliminated from large areas of Western Europe. Over the next few years, terrestrial rabies is likely to occur only east of a line from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea; the overall aim is to eliminate terrestrial rabies from the whole European Union. Elimination of rabies from the less rich countries of Eastern Europe, and the protection of Europe against a resurgence of rabies in the longer term requires modifications to existing OIE and WHO strategies. Here we discuss the options available to eliminate rabies in wildlife while taking account of financial cost, and how to maintain a 'cordon sanitaire' along the eastern boundary of the EU in order to protect the rabies-free areas from rabies incursion. Minimising financial costs at the national level is obviously essential, considering the competing priorities for development and health. This could be achieved either by increasing external funding (for example by the EU) and/or by changing the currently agreed vaccination strategy to reduce costs; any such change must not substantially reduce the chances of rabies elimination. A cordon sanitaire might be placed outside the economic area of the EU, to protect the whole of the EU, or it might be placed within the easternmost countries to ensure logistical consistency of vaccination. Policy must also anticipate an emergency due to rabies breaking out in a previously freed region. Strategic planning may be complicated by the increasing range and abundance of the raccoon dog, an introduced species that is increasingly important as a host for fox rabies. It is argued here that models help to evaluate altemative strategies, exploring options for optimising costs by minimising bait density and frequency or by reducing the vaccination area.

Culling-induced social perturbation in Eurasian badgers Meles meles and the management of TB in cattle: an analysis of a critical problem in applied ecology

The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to cattle in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Badger culling has been employed for the control of TB in cattle in both countries, with varying results. Social perturbation of badger populations following culling has been proposed as an explanation for the failure of culling to consistently demonstrate significant reductions in cattle TB. Field studies indicate that culling badgers may result in increased immigration into culled areas, disruption of territoriality, increased ranging and mixing between social groups. Our analysis shows that some measures of sociality may remain significantly disrupted for up to 8 years after culling. This may have epidemiological consequences because previous research has shown that even in a relatively undisturbed badger population, movements between groups are associated with increases in the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection. This is consistent with the results from a large-scale field trial, which demonstrated decreased benefits of culling at the edges of culled areas, and an increase in herd breakdown rates in neighbouring cattle.

Correlation between finger-prick and venous ciclosporin levels: association with gingival overgrowth and hypertrichosis

The aims of this study were (1) to ascertain ciclosporin C(2) levels currently being achieved in children with steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (SSNS) and renal transplants (RTs), (2) to determine the feasibility of the use of finger-prick samples for the measurement of ciclosporin levels, and (3) to identify any correlation between hypertrichosis or gingival overgrowth (GO) and level of ciclosporin 2 h post-dose (C(2)). Seventy-two children (39 with SSNS, 33 with RT) participated. Ciclosporin 12 h trough (C(12)) and C(2) levels were measured in venous and finger-prick samples by high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectroscopy. Photographs of the teeth and back were taken for assessment of GO and hypertrichosis. Mean (+/-SD) C(2) levels in the SSNS and RT groups were 512 (+/-181) microg/l and 471 (+/-229) microg/l. There was a highly significant relationship between venous and finger-prick ciclosporin levels (r(2) = 0.96, P < 0.0001). Fourteen children had severe GO. There was a small, though statistically significant, impact of ciclosporin level on GO (C(2) r(2) = 0.12, P = 0.003 and C(12) r(2) = 0.06, P = 0.038) but no correlation with dose (milligrammes per kilogramme per day or milligrammes per square metre per day) or duration. Seventeen children had moderate or severe hypertrichosis, this being more common in children of South Asian ethnicity (P < 0.0001). There was no correlation between ciclosporin exposure or duration and hypertrichosis. Finger-prick blood sampling may serve as a practical alternative to venepuncture in children receiving ciclosporin.

Landscape as a model: the importance of geometry

In all models, but especially in those used to predict uncertain processes (e.g., climate change and nonnative species establishment), it is important to identify and remove any sources of bias that may confound results. This is critical in models designed to help support decisionmaking. The geometry used to represent virtual landscapes in spatially explicit models is a potential source of bias. The majority of spatial models use regular square geometry, although regular hexagonal landscapes have also been used. However, there are other ways in which space can be represented in spatially explicit models. For the first time, we explicitly compare the range of alternative geometries available to the modeller, and present a mechanism by which uncertainty in the representation of landscapes can be incorporated. We test how geometry can affect cell-to-cell movement across homogeneous virtual landscapes and compare regular geometries with a suite of irregular mosaics. We show that regular geometries have the potential to systematically bias the direction and distance of movement, whereas even individual instances of landscapes with irregular geometry do not. We also examine how geometry can affect the gross representation of real-world landscapes, and again show that individual instances of regular geometries will always create qualitative and quantitative errors. These can be reduced by the use of multiple randomized instances, though this still creates scale-dependent biases. In contrast, virtual landscapes formed using irregular geometries can represent complex real-world landscapes without error. We found that the potential for bias caused by regular geometries can be effectively eliminated by subdividing virtual landscapes using irregular geometry. The use of irregular geometry appears to offer spatial modellers other potential advantages, which are as yet underdeveloped. We recommend their use in all spatially explicit models, but especially for predictive models that are used in decisionmaking.

Many different areas of science try to simulate and predict (model) how processes act across virtual landscapes. Sometimes these models are abstract, but often they are based on real-world landscapes and are used to make real-world planning or management decisions. We considered two separate issues: how movement occurs across landscapes and how uncertainty in spatial data can be represented in the model. Most studies represent the landscape using regular geometries (e.g., squares and hexagons), but we generated landscapes of irregular shapes. We tested and compared how the shapes that make up a landscape affected cell-to-cell movement across it. All of the virtual landscapes formed with regular geometries had the potential to bias the direction and distance of movement. Those formed with irregular geometry did not. We have also shown that describing whole real-world landscapes with regular geometries will lead to errors and bias, whereas virtual landscapes formed with irregular geometries are free from both. We recommend the use of multiple versions of virtual landscapes formed using irregular geometries for all spatially explicit models as a way of minimizing this source of bias and error; this is especially relevant in predictive models (e.g., climate change) that are difficult to test and are designed to help make decisions.

Is there a role for rituximab in the treatment of idiopathic childhood nephrotic syndrome?

We each have nephrotic patients who become steroid dependent and in whom multiple immunosuppressive agents are employed. There is a need to balance possible therapeutic benefits with drug toxicity. This case report describes such a patient, who has suffered from nephrotic syndrome for over 11 years and had become resistant to the usual therapies. He was therefore given a single dose of the anti-CD20 drug rituximab, to which he showed a prompt response, leaving him free of proteinuria for the past 10 months.

Efficacy of trapping during the initial proactive culls in the randomised badger culling trial

The randomised badger culling trial (RBCT) has shown that widespread badger culling in predefined areas of approximately 100 km2 led to a reduction in the number of cattle herds testing positive for bovine tuberculosis (TB) ('herd breakdowns'), but was associated with an increase in cattle tb in surrounding areas. This study has tried to estimate the trapping efficacy and the level of reduction of the badger population during the initial proactive culls in the RBCT. For seven triplets trapping efficacy was estimated between 71 per cent and 85 per cent, and for three triplets between 35 per cent and 46 per cent. Two of the latter triplets had trapping coinciding with harsh climatic conditions. Badger population removal was estimated at 64 per cent to 77 per cent in the former and 32 per cent to 39 per cent in the latter triplets. In most of the treatment areas there was therefore a consistent and substantial reduction in the number of badgers at the end of the initial cull. All the proactive treatment areas were subjected to further culls, and it is therefore likely that greater reductions would have occurred by the end of 2005, when the analysis of cattle herd breakdowns took place.

Decontamination of beef subprimal cuts intended for blade tenderization or moisture enhancement

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on beef subprimal cuts intended for mechanical tenderization was evaluated. This evaluation was followed by the assessment of five antimicrobial interventions at minimizing the risk of transferring E. coli O157:H7 to the interior of inoculated subprimal cuts during blade tenderization (BT) or moisture enhancement (ME). Prevalence of E. coli O157:H7 on 1,014 uninoculated beef subprimals collected from six packing facilities was 0.2%. Outside round pieces inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 at 10(4) CFU/100 cm2 were treated with (i) no intervention, (ii) surface trimming, (iii) hot water (82 degrees C), (iv) warm 2.5% lactic acid (55 degrees C), (v) warm 5.0% lactic acid (55 degrees C), or (vi) 2% activated lactoferrin followed by warm 5.0% lactic acid (55 degrees C) and then submitted to BT or ME. Prevalence (n=196) of internalized (BT and ME) E. coli O157:H7 was 99%. Enumeration of E. coli 0157:H7 (n=192) revealed mean surface reductions of 0.93 to 1.10 log CFU/100 cm2 for all antimicrobial interventions. E. coli O157:H7 was detected on 3 of the 76 internal BT samples and 73 of the 76 internal ME samples. Internal ME samples with no intervention had significantly higher mean E. coli O157:H7 populations than did those internal samples treated with an intervention, but there were no significant differences in E. coli O157:H7 populations among internal BT samples. Results of this study demonstrate that the incidence of E. coli O157:H7 on the surface of beef subprimal cuts is low and that interventions applied before mechanical tenderization can effectively reduce the transfer of low concentrations of E. coli O157:H7 to the interior of beef subprimal cuts.

A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the effect of combined therapy with deferoxamine and deferiprone on myocardial iron in thalassemia major using cardiovascular magnetic resonance

BACKGROUND

Cardiac complications secondary to iron overload are the leading cause of death in beta-thalassemia major. Approximately two thirds of patients maintained on the parenteral iron chelator deferoxamine have myocardial iron loading. The oral iron chelator deferiprone has been demonstrated to remove myocardial iron, and it has been proposed that in combination with deferoxamine it may have additional effect.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Myocardial iron loading was assessed with the use of myocardial T2* cardiovascular magnetic resonance in 167 patients with thalassemia major receiving standard maintenance chelation monotherapy with subcutaneous deferoxamine. Of these patients, 65 with mild to moderate myocardial iron loading (T2* 8 to 20 ms) entered the trial with continuation of subcutaneous deferoxamine and were randomized to receive additional oral placebo (deferoxamine group) or oral deferiprone 75 mg/kg per day (combined group). The primary end point was the change in myocardial T2* over 12 months. Secondary end points of endothelial function (flow-mediated dilatation of the brachial artery) and cardiac function were also measured with cardiovascular magnetic resonance. There were significant improvements in the combined treatment group compared with the deferoxamine group in myocardial T2* (ratio of change in geometric means 1.50 versus 1.24; P=0.02), absolute left ventricular ejection fraction (2.6% versus 0.6%; P=0.05), and absolute endothelial function (8.8% versus 3.3%; P=0.02). There was also a significantly greater improvement in serum ferritin in the combined group (-976 versus -233 microg/L; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In comparison to the standard chelation monotherapy of deferoxamine, combination treatment with additional deferiprone reduced myocardial iron and improved the ejection fraction and endothelial function in thalassemia major patients with mild to moderate cardiac iron loading.

Central Nervous System Tissue in Meat Products: An Evaluation of Risk, Prevention Strategies, and Testing Procedures

Since the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United Kingdom in 1986 and its subsequent link to the human neurological disorder variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), presence of tissues from the central nervous system (CNS) in meat products has been considered a public health concern and, thus, has been banned from entering the human food chain in many countries. Despite this, potential can exist during harvesting to contaminate or cross-contaminate edible meat products with CNS tissue that is designated as a specified risk material (SRM) in many countries. Methods used to detect CNS tissue in meat products vary greatly in their sensitivity, specificity, cost, labor and expertise needed, ease of completion, and type of results given (qualitative vs quantitative) and, within these constraints, appropriate testing methods must be selected to monitor or verify that meat products system controls are effective in removing CNS tissue from the human food chain. The extent to which monitoring procedures are needed should be based on the public health risk of CNS tissue in meat products as determined by each sovereign nation and/or third-party international organizations such as the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). Risk associated with consumption of CNS tissue should be estimated by sovereign nations by establishing prevalence of BSE within their borders. Using this information, science-based decisions may guide international policy and trade. Using available scientific information, appropriate testing methods for monitoring or verification, and prevalence information, nations can estimate and reduce, to the extent deemed necessary, the public health risk of vCJD.

Determining the prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and beef from the feedlot to the cooler

Prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 on cattle entering the slaughter floor may range from 10 to > 70%. This study was conducted to determine the effect of E. coli O157 prevalence in fecal pats collected from feedlot pen floors on subsequent E. coli O157 prevalence on carcasses at various points in the slaughter process. Fecal pats from the feedlot pen floor were collected within 3 days before slaughter. During cattle processing at the slaughter facility, additional samples were collected from the hide, from the colon, and from the carcasses before and after evisceration and after final decontamination. Of 15 lots (a group of cattle from the same pen from a feedlot) sampled, 87% had at least one positive fecal pat from the feedlot floor, 47% had a positive hide sample, 73% had a positive colon/fecal sample, and 47% had a positive carcass sample preevisceration; however, only 8% of lots had a positive carcass sample postevisceration or after final intervention. Of the total samples tested (n = 1,328), 24.7, 14.7, 27.6, 10.1, 1.4, and 0.3% of fecal pats from the feedlot floor, hide, colon, preevisceration, postevisceration, and final intervention samples, respectively, were positive for E. coli O157. Pens with greater than 20% positive fecal pats from the feedlot floor had 25.5% hide, 51.4% colon, and 14.3, 2.9, and 0.7% carcass samples positive at preevisceration, at postevisceration, and after final intervention, respectively. However, fecal pats from feedlot floor samples that contained less than 20% positive fecal samples showed lower pathogen prevalence, with 5.0% hide, 7.5% colon, and 6.3, 0, and 0% carcass positive samples at preevisceration, postevisceration, and post-final intervention, respectively. Data from this study can be used as part of risk assessment processes in order to identify mitigation strategies to minimize prevalence of E. coli O157 on fresh beef carcasses.

Effects of postmortem aging and USDA quality grade on Warner-Bratzler shear force values of seventeen individual beef muscles1

Forty USDA Select and 40 upper two-thirds USDA Choice beef carcasses were used to determine the effects of postmortem aging on tenderness of 17 individual beef muscles. Biceps femoris-long head, complexus, gluteus medius, infraspinatus, longissimus dorsi, psoas major, rectus femoris, semimembranosus, semitendinosus, serratus ventralis, spinalis dorsi, supraspinatus, tensor fasciae latae, teres major, triceps brachii-long head, vastus lateralis, and vastus medialis muscles were removed from each carcass. Seven steaks (2.54-cm thick) were cut from every muscle, and each steak was assigned to one of the following postmortem aging periods: 2, 4, 6, 10, 14, 21, or 28 d postmortem. After completion of the designated aging period, steaks were removed from storage (2 degrees C, never frozen), cooked to a peak internal temperature of 71 degrees C, and evaluated using Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBSF). Analysis of WBSF revealed a 3-way interaction (P = 0.004) among individual muscle, USDA quality grade, and postmortem aging period. With the exception of the Select teres major, WBSF of all muscles (both quality grades) decreased with increasing time of postmortem storage. Nonlinear regression was used to characterize the extent (aging response) and rate of decrease in WBSF from 2 through 28 d postmortem for each muscle within each quality grade. In general, WBSF of upper two-thirds Choice muscles decreased more rapidly from 2 to 10 d postmortem than did corresponding Select muscles. Muscles that had greater aging responses generally had greater 2-d WBSF values. The upper two-thirds Choice psoas major, serratus ventralis, and vastus lateralis muscles required similar aging times to complete a majority of the aging response (< or =0.1 kg of aging response remaining) compared with analogous Select muscles. The upper two-thirds Choice complexus, gluteus medius, semitendinosus, triceps brachii-long head, and vastus medialis muscles required 4 to 6 d less time to complete a majority of the aging response than did comparable Select muscles. Aging times for Select biceps femoris-long head, infraspinatus, longissimus dorsi, rectus femoris, semimembranosus, spinalis dorsi, supraspinatus, and tensor fasciae latae muscles were > or =7 d longer than those for corresponding upper two-thirds Choice muscles. Results from this study suggest that muscle-to-muscle tenderness differences depend on quality grade and aging time and that postmortem aging should be managed with respect to individual muscle and USDA quality grade.