P3823Body mass index or waist and hip circumference as predictors of outcome in the UK biobank

Background

Controversies exist about the relationship between body habitus and mortality, especially for patients with cardiovascular disease.

Purpose

We evaluated the relations between different anthropometric indices and mortality amongst participants with and without cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, or established CV disease (stroke, myocardial infarction and/or heart failure), enrolled in the UK Biobank.

Methods

The UK Biobank is a large prospective study which, between 2006 and 2010, enrolled 502,620 participants aged 38–73 years. Participants filled questionnaires and had a medical history recorded, physical measurements done and biological samples taken. The UK Biobank is routinely linked to national death registries and updated on a quarterly basis. Data on death were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10). The primary end-point was all-cause mortality (ACM) across three subgroups of men and women: those with, or without, one or more CV risk factors (smoking, diabetes and/or hypertension), and those with CV disease (history of stroke, myocardial infarction and/or heart failure) at recruitment. Presence, or absence, of CV risk factors and diagnoses of CV disease were self-reported by participants at enrolment. Associations between anthropometric indices (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist to hip ratio (WHiR), and waist to height ratio (WHeR)) and the risk of all-cause mortality were analysed using Cox regression models.

Results

After excluding those with history of cancer at baseline (n=45,222), 453,046 participants were included (median age: 58 (interquartile range: 50 - 63) years; 53% women), of whom 150,732 had at least one CV risk factor, and 17,884 established CV disease.

During a median follow-up of 5 years, 6,319 participants died. Baseline BMI had a U-shaped relationship with ACM, with higher nadir-values for those with CV risk factors or CV disease, for both sexes (figure). WC, WHiR and WHeR (measures of central distribution of body fat) had more linear associations with ACM, regardless of CV risk factors, CV disease and sex.

Conclusions

For adults with or without CV risk factors or established CV disease, measures of central distribution of body fat are more strongly and more linearly associated with ACM than BMI. WC, or WHiR, rather than BMI, appear to be more appropriate variables for risk stratification.

Protocol of a two arm randomised, multi-centre, 12-month controlled trial: evaluating the impact of a Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT)-based intervention Supporting UPtake and Adherence to antiretrovirals (SUPA) in adults with HIV

Background

Delay to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) and nonadherence compromise the health and wellbeing of people living with HIV (PLWH), raise the cost of care and increase risk of transmission to sexual partners. To date, interventions to improve adherence to ART have had limited success, perhaps because they have failed to systematically elicit and address both perceptual and practical barriers to adherence. The primary aim of this study is to determine the efficacy of the Supporting UPtake and Adherence (SUPA) intervention.

Methods

This study comprises 2 phases. Phase 1 is an observational cohort study, in which PLWH who are ART naïve and recommended to take ART by their clinician complete a questionnaire assessing their beliefs about ART over 12 months. Phase 2 is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) nested within the observational cohort study to investigate the effectiveness of the SUPA intervention on adherence to ART. PLWH at risk of nonadherence (based on their beliefs about ART) will be recruited and randomised 1:1 to the intervention (SUPA intervention + usual care) and control (usual care) arms. The SUPA intervention involves 4 tailored treatment support sessions delivered by a Research Nurse utilising a collaborative Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) and Motivational Interviewing (MI) approach. Sessions are tailored to individual needs and preferences based on the individual patient’s perceptions and practical barriers to ART. An animation series and intervention manual have been developed to communicate a rationale for the personal necessity for ART and illustrate concerns and potential solutions. The primary outcome is adherence to ART measured using Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Three hundred seventy-two patients will be sufficient to detect a 15% difference in adherence with 80% power and an alpha of 0.05. Costs will be compared between intervention and control groups. Costs will be combined with the primary outcome in cost-effectiveness analyses. Quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) will also be estimated over the follow-up period and used in the analyses.

Discussion

The findings will enable patients, healthcare providers and policy makers to make informed decisions about the value of the SUPA intervention.

Trial registration

The trial was retrospectively registered 21/02/2014, ISRCTN35514212.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6893-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Towards person-centred care for people living with HIV: what core outcomes matter, and how might we assess them? A cross-national multi-centre qualitative study with key stakeholders

OBJECTIVES

People living with HIV (PLWH) have multidimensional concerns requiring person-centred care. Routine use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) improves outcomes. No brief PROM currently reflects the breadth of concerns for PLWH. This study sought to identify priority outcomes for PLWH, model current practice, explore views on introducing PROMs into routine care, and devise a model for person-centred care incorporating the PROM.

METHODS

A cross-national multi-centre study (London, Brighton and Dublin) was carried out. Semi-structured qualitative interviews with adult PLWH, HIV health care professionals and HIV commissioners (responsible for planning and commissioning services) were performed. Interviews were analysed using thematic and framework analysis.

RESULTS

PLWH (n = 28), professionals (n = 21) and commissioners (n = 8) described concerns related to living with HIV across six domains: physical (e.g. pain and gastrointestinal symptoms), cognitive (e.g. memory and sleep), psychological (e.g. anxiety and depression), social (e.g. isolation and intimacy), welfare (e.g. finances and fears regarding change of immigration status), and information (e.g. long-term outcomes) needs. Themes were highly inter-related, impacting across domains of need (e.g. physical and cognitive problems impacting on psychological and social wellbeing). Perceived benefits of using PROMs in routine HIV care included improved person-centredness, patient empowerment, fewer missed concerns, increased engagement with services, and informed planning of services. Potential challenges included heterogeneity of PLWH, literacy, and utility for those who struggle to engage with care.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents a novel model of person-centred care incorporating an HIV-specific PROM. The model reflects priorities of key stakeholders. Explicit use of PROMs in routine HIV care could afford benefits for PLWH, clinical teams and commissioners.

Needle-like structures discovered on positively charged lightning branches

Lightning is a dangerous yet poorly understood natural phenomenon. Lightning forms a network of plasma channels propagating away from the initiation point with both positively and negatively charged ends-called positive and negative leaders¹. Negative leaders propagate in discrete steps, emitting copious radio pulses in the 30-300-megahertz frequency band^2-8 that can be remotely sensed and imaged with high spatial and temporal resolution^9-11. Positive leaders propagate more continuously and thus emit very little high-frequency radiation¹². Radio emission from positive leaders has nevertheless been mapped^13-15, and exhibits a pattern that is different from that of negative leaders^11-13,16,17. Furthermore, it has been inferred that positive leaders can become transiently disconnected from negative leaders^{9,12,16,18-20}, which may lead to current pulses that both reconnect positive leaders to negative leaders^{11,16,17,20-22} and cause multiple cloud-to-ground lightning events¹. The disconnection process is thought to be due to negative differential resistance¹⁸, but this does not explain why the disconnections form primarily on positive leaders²², or why the current in cloud-to-ground lightning never goes to zero²³. Indeed, it is still not understood how positive leaders emit radio-frequency radiation or why they behave differently from negative leaders. Here we report three-dimensional radio interferometric observations of lightning over the Netherlands with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution. We find small plasma structures-which we call 'needles'-that are the dominant source of radio emission from the positive leaders. These structures appear to drain charge from the leader, and are probably the reason why positive leaders disconnect from negative ones, and why cloud-to-ground lightning connects to the ground multiple times.

Level of agreement between frequently used cardiovascular risk calculators in people living with HIV

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to describe agreement between the QRISK2, Framingham and Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators in a large UK study of people living with HIV (PLWH).

METHODS

PLWH enrolled in the Pharmacokinetic and Clinical Observations in People over Fifty (POPPY) study without a prior CVD event were included in this study. QRISK2, Framingham CVD and the full and reduced D:A:D CVD scores were calculated; participants were stratified into 'low' (< 10%), 'intermediate' (10-20%) and 'high' (> 20%) categories for each. Agreement between scores was assessed using weighted kappas and Bland-Altman plots.

RESULTS

The 730 included participants were predominantly male (636; 87.1%) and of white ethnicity (645; 88.5%), with a median age of 53 [interquartile range (IQR) 49-59] years. The median calculated 10-year CVD risk was 11.9% (IQR 6.8-18.4%), 8.9% (IQR 4.6-15.0%), 8.5% (IQR 4.8-14.6%) and 6.9% (IQR 4.1-11.1%) when using the Framingham, QRISK2, and full and reduced D:A:D scores, respectively. Agreement between the different scores was generally moderate, with the highest level of agreement being between the Framingham and QRISK2 scores (weighted kappa = 0.65) but with most other kappa coefficients in the 0.50-0.60 range.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimates of predicted 10-year CVD risk obtained with commonly used CVD risk prediction tools demonstrate, in general, only moderate agreement among PLWH in the UK. While further validation with clinical endpoints is required, our findings suggest that care should be taken when interpreting any score alone.

Depression, lifestyle factors and cognitive function in people living with HIV and comparable HIV-negative controls

Objectives

We investigated whether differences in cognitive performance between people living with HIV (PLWH) and comparable HIV‐negative people were mediated or moderated by depressive symptoms and lifestyle factors.

Methods

A cross‐sectional study of 637 ‘older’ PLWH aged ≥ 50 years, 340 ‘younger’ PLWH aged < 50 years and 276 demographically matched HIV‐negative controls aged ≥ 50 years enrolled in the Pharmacokinetic and Clinical Observations in People over Fifty (POPPY) study was performed. Cognitive function was assessed using a computerized battery (CogState). Scores were standardized into Z‐scores [mean = 0; standard deviation (SD) = 1] and averaged to obtain a global Z‐score. Depressive symptoms were evaluated via the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ‐9). Differences between the three groups and the effects of depression, sociodemographic factors and lifestyle factors on cognitive performance were evaluated using median regression. All analyses accounted for age, gender, ethnicity and level of education.

Results

After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, older and younger PLWH had poorer overall cognitive scores than older HIV‐negative controls (P < 0.001 and P = 0.006, respectively). Moderate or severe depressive symptoms were more prevalent in both older (27%; P < 0.001) and younger (21%; P < 0.001) PLWH compared with controls (8%). Depressive symptoms (P < 0.001) and use of hashish (P = 0.01) were associated with lower cognitive function; alcohol consumption (P = 0.02) was associated with better cognitive scores. After further adjustment for these factors, the difference between older PLWH and HIV‐negative controls was no longer significant (P = 0.08), while that between younger PLWH and older HIV‐negative controls remained significant (P = 0.01).

Conclusions

Poorer cognitive performances in PLWH compared with HIV‐negative individuals were, in part, mediated by the greater prevalence of depressive symptoms and recreational drug use reported by PLWH.

Paternal Age and Transgenerational Telomere Length Maintenance: A Simulation Model

Telomere length (TL) in offspring is positively correlated with paternal age at the time of the offspring conception. The paternal-age-at-conception (PAC) effect on TL is puzzling, and its biological implication at the population level is unknown. Using a probabilistic model of transgenerational TL and population dynamics, we simulated the effect of PAC on TL in individuals over the course of 1,000 years. Findings suggest a key role for an isometric PAC midpoint (PACmp) in modulating TL across generations, such that offspring conceived by males younger than the isometric PACmp have comparatively short telomeres, while offspring conceived by males older than the isometric PACmp have comparatively long telomeres. We further show that when cancer incidence escalates, the average PAC drops below the isometric PACmp and transgenerational adaptation to cancer ensues through TL shortening. We propose that PAC serves to maintain an optimal TL across generations.

High-risk behaviours, and their associations with mental health, adherence to antiretroviral therapy and HIV parameters, in HIV-positive men who have sex with men

Objectives

To investigate the patterns and frequency of multiple risk behaviours (alcohol, drugs, smoking, higher risk sexual activity) among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV.

Methods

Cross sectional study.

Results

147 out of 819 HIV‐positive MSM exhibited a high‐risk phenotype (defined as >3 of smoking, excess alcohol, sexually transmitted infection and recent recreational drug use). This phenotype was associated with younger age, depressive symptoms and <90% adherence in multivariable logistic regression.

Conclusion

In a cohort of MSM, a small, but significant proportion exhibited multiple concurrent risk behaviours.

Risk factors for oral health in young, urban, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children

Background

The caries process follows a strong social gradient which can commence in the first years of life. Yet data on young children remain limited. This study reports the potential risk factors and indicators in urban, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged less than 5 and estimates the prevalence of caries.

Methods

Demographic and risk factor and risk indicator data were collected at baseline in a cohort study of children attending a health clinic in north Brisbane. Dentulous children received a basic oral examination to explore the presence of decayed, missing and filled teeth (dmft). Descriptive analyses were performed. A backwards stepwise logistic regression model was performed to identify potential associations with dmft status.

Results

In this study, 180 children enrolled: 111 children received the oral examination, of whom 14 (12.6%) (mean age 35 months) were estimated to have dmft >0. There was a high prevalence of socio‐economic, dietary and behavioural risk factors/indicators present for children. Due to the small sample size, planned regression was not performed.

Conclusions

Overall, the prevalence of risk factors and risk indicators for caries in the study population is high. More culturally appropriate resources that support preventive care need to be invested before children are school aged.

Evaluation of avoralstat, an oral kallikrein inhibitor, in a Phase 3 hereditary angioedema prophylaxis trial: The OPuS-2 study

Background

Effective inhibition of plasma kallikrein may have significant benefits for patients with hereditary angioedema due to deficiency of C1 inhibitor (C1‐INH‐HAE) by reducing the frequency of angioedema attacks. Avoralstat is a small molecule inhibitor of plasma kallikrein. This study (OPuS‐2) evaluated the efficacy and safety of prophylactic avoralstat 300 or 500 mg compared with placebo.

Methods

OPuS‐2 was a Phase 3, multicenter, randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled, parallel‐group study. Subjects were administered avoralstat 300 mg, avoralstat 500 mg, or placebo orally 3 times per day for 12 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was the angioedema attack rate based on adjudicator‐confirmed attacks.

Results

A total of 110 subjects were randomized and dosed. The least squares (LS) mean attack rates per week were 0.589, 0.675, and 0.593 for subjects receiving avoralstat 500 mg, avoralstat 300 mg, and placebo, respectively. Overall, 1 subject in each of the avoralstat groups and no subjects in the placebo group were attack‐free during the 84‐day treatment period. The LS mean duration of all confirmed attacks was 25.4, 29.4, and 31.4 hours for the avoralstat 500 mg, avoralstat 300 mg, and placebo groups, respectively. Using the Angioedema Quality of Life Questionnaire (AE‐QoL), improved QoL was observed for the avoralstat 500 mg group compared with placebo. Avoralstat was generally safe and well tolerated.

Conclusions

Although this study did not demonstrate efficacy of avoralstat in preventing angioedema attacks in C1‐INH‐HAE, it provided evidence of shortened angioedema episodes and improved QoL in the avoralstat 500 mg treatment group compared with placebo.