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Archibald A, Arnold S, Bejan L, Brown S, Brüggemann M, Carpenter LJ, Collins W, Evans M, Finlayson-Pitts B, George C, Hastings M, Heard D, Hewitt CN, Isaacman-VanWertz G, Kalberer M, Keutsch F, Kiendler-Scharr A, Knopf D, Lelieveld J, Marais E, Petzold A, Ravishankara A, Reid J, Rovelli G, Scott C, Sherwen T, Shindell D, Tinel L, Unger N, Wahner A, Wallington TJ, Williams J, Young P, Zelenyuk A. Atmospheric chemistry and the biosphere: general discussion. Faraday Discuss 2017; 200:195-228. [PMID: 28795727 DOI: 10.1039/c7fd90038d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Erguler K, Chandra NL, Proestos Y, Lelieveld J, Christophides GK, Parham PE. A large-scale stochastic spatiotemporal model for Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya epidemiology. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0174293. [PMID: 28362820 PMCID: PMC5375158 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2016] [Accepted: 03/07/2017] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted to humans primarily via the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes. The virus caused a major epidemic in the Indian Ocean in 2004, affecting millions of inhabitants, while cases have also been observed in Europe since 2007. We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal model of Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission based on our recently developed environmentally-driven vector population dynamics model. We designed an integrated modelling framework incorporating large-scale gridded climate datasets to investigate disease outbreaks on Reunion Island and in Italy. We performed Bayesian parameter inference on the surveillance data, and investigated the validity and applicability of the underlying biological assumptions. The model successfully represents the outbreak and measures of containment in Italy, suggesting wider applicability in Europe. In its current configuration, the model implies two different viral strains, thus two different outbreaks, for the two-stage Reunion Island epidemic. Characterisation of the posterior distributions indicates a possible relationship between the second larger outbreak on Reunion Island and the Italian outbreak. The model suggests that vector control measures, with different modes of operation, are most effective when applied in combination: adult vector intervention has a high impact but is short-lived, larval intervention has a low impact but is long-lasting, and quarantining infected territories, if applied strictly, is effective in preventing large epidemics. We present a novel approach in analysing chikungunya outbreaks globally using a single environmentally-driven mathematical model. Our study represents a significant step towards developing a globally applicable Ae. albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission model, and introduces a guideline for extending such models to other vector-borne diseases.
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Alpert P, Archibald A, Arnold S, Ashworth K, Brown S, Campbell S, Carpenter LJ, Coe H, Dou J, Edebeli J, Finlayson-Pitts B, Grantham A, Hamilton J, Hastings M, Heard D, Isaacman-VanWertz G, Jones R, Kalberer M, Kiendler-Scharr A, Knopf D, Kroll J, Lelieveld J, Lewis A, Marais E, Marsh A, Moller S, Petzold A, Porter W, Ravishankara A, Reid J, Rickard A, Rovelli G, Rudich Y, Taatjes C, Vaughan A, Wahner A, Wallington TJ, Williams J, Young P, Zelenyuk A. New tools for atmospheric chemistry: general discussion. Faraday Discuss 2017; 200:663-691. [DOI: 10.1039/c7fd90041d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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79
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Abstract
In atmospheric chemistry, interactions between air pollution, the biosphere and human health, often through reaction mixtures from both natural and anthropogenic sources, are of growing interest. Massive pollution emissions in the Anthropocene have transformed atmospheric composition to the extent that biogeochemical cycles, air quality and climate have changed globally and partly profoundly. It is estimated that mortality attributable to outdoor air pollution amounts to 4.33 million individuals per year, associated with 123 million years of life lost. Worldwide, air pollution is the major environmental risk factor to human health, and strict air quality standards have the potential to strongly reduce morbidity and mortality. Preserving clean air should be considered a human right, and is fundamental to many sustainable development goals of the United Nations, such as good health, climate action, sustainable cities, clean energy, and protecting life on land and in the water. It would be appropriate to adopt “clean air” as a sustainable development goal.
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Archibald A, Arnold S, Bartels-Rausch T, Brown S, Caravan R, Carpenter LJ, Chhantyal-Pun R, Coe H, Dou J, Edebeli J, Evans M, Finlayson-Pitts B, George C, Hamilton J, Heald C, Heard D, Hewitt CN, Isaacman-VanWertz G, Jones R, Kalberer M, Kampf C, Kerminen VM, Kiendler-Scharr A, Knopf D, Kroll J, Lelieveld J, Marais E, McGillen M, Mellouki A, Petzold A, Ravishankara A, Rickard A, Rudich Y, Taatjes C, Wahner A, Williams J, Zelenyuk A. Atmospheric chemistry processes: general discussion. Faraday Discuss 2017; 200:353-378. [DOI: 10.1039/c7fd90039b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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81
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Georgoulias AK, Alexandri G, Kourtidis KA, Lelieveld J, Zanis P, Pöschl U, Levy R, Amiridis V, Marinou E, Tsikerdekis A. Spatiotemporal variability and contribution of different aerosol types to the Aerosol Optical Depth over the Eastern Mediterranean. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2016; 16:13853-13884. [PMID: 29755508 PMCID: PMC5946319 DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-13853-2016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS Terra (3/2000-12/2012) and Aqua (7/2002-12/2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sunphotometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium sized cities, industrial zones, and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities, and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is ~ 0.22 ± 0.19 with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in Central and Eastern Europe, and transport of dust from the Sahara Desert and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine mode natural aerosols account for ~ 51 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account ~ 40 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations.
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Georgoulias AK, Alexandri G, Kourtidis KA, Lelieveld J, Zanis P, Pöschl U, Levy R, Amiridis V, Marinou E, Tsikerdekis A. Spatiotemporal variability and contribution of different aerosol types to the Aerosol Optical Depth over the Eastern Mediterranean. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2016; 16:13853-13884. [PMID: 29755508 DOI: 10.5194/acp-2016-401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS Terra (3/2000-12/2012) and Aqua (7/2002-12/2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sunphotometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium sized cities, industrial zones, and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities, and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is ~ 0.22 ± 0.19 with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in Central and Eastern Europe, and transport of dust from the Sahara Desert and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine mode natural aerosols account for ~ 51 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account ~ 40 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations.
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Vereecken L, Chakravarty HK, Bohn B, Lelieveld J. Theoretical Study on the Formation of H- and O-Atoms, HONO, OH, NO, and NO2from the Lowest Lying Singlet and Triplet States inOrtho-Nitrophenol Photolysis. INT J CHEM KINET 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/kin.21033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
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Giannadaki D, Lelieveld J, Pozzer A. Implementing the US air quality standard for PM2.5 worldwide can prevent millions of premature deaths per year. Environ Health 2016; 15:88. [PMID: 27552859 PMCID: PMC4994265 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-016-0170-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2016] [Accepted: 08/09/2016] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Air pollution by fine aerosol particles is among the leading causes of poor health and premature mortality worldwide. The growing awareness of this issue has led several countries to implement air pollution legislation. However, populations in large parts of the world are still exposed to high levels of ambient particulate pollution. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the potential impact of implementing current air quality standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the European Union (EU), United States (US) and other countries where PM2.5 levels are high. METHODS We use a high-resolution global atmospheric chemistry model combined with epidemiological concentration response functions to investigate premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 in adults ≥30 years and children <5 years. We perform sensitivity studies to estimate the reductions in mortality that could be achieved if the PM2.5 air quality standards of the EU and US and other national standards would be implemented worldwide. RESULTS We estimate the global premature mortality by PM2.5 at 3.15 million/year in 2010. China is the leading country with about 1.33 million, followed by India with 575 thousand and Pakistan with 105 thousand per year. For the 28 EU member states we estimate 173 thousand and for the United States 52 thousand premature deaths in 2010. Based on sensitivity analysis, applying worldwide the EU annual mean standard of 25 μg/m(3) for PM2.5 could reduce global premature mortality due to PM2.5 exposure by 17 %; while within the EU the effect is negligible. With the 2012 revised US standard of 12 μg/m(3) premature mortality by PM2.5 could drop by 46 % worldwide; 4 % in the US and 20 % in the EU, 69 % in China, 49 % in India and 36 % in Pakistan. These estimates take into consideration that about 22 % of the global PM2.5 related mortality cannot be avoided due to the contribution of natural PM2.5 sources, mainly airborne desert dust and PM2.5 from wild fires. CONCLUSIONS Our results reflect the need to adopt stricter limits for annual mean PM2.5 levels globally, like the US standard of 12 μg/m(3) or an even lower limit to substantially reduce premature mortality in most of the world.
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Erguler K, Smith-Unna SE, Waldock J, Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Lelieveld J, Parham PE. Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). PLoS One 2016; 11:e0149282. [PMID: 26871447 PMCID: PMC4752251 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2015] [Accepted: 01/03/2016] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.
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Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J. Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:rstb.2013.0554. [PMID: 25688015 PMCID: PMC4342960 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km2 will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.
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Lelieveld J, Evans JS, Fnais M, Giannadaki D, Pozzer A. The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature 2015; 525:367-71. [PMID: 26381985 DOI: 10.1038/nature15371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1940] [Impact Index Per Article: 215.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2014] [Accepted: 07/27/2015] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
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Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J. Correction to 'Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation'. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20150246. [PMID: 26323769 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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Lelieveld J, Beirle S, Hörmann C, Stenchikov G, Wagner T. Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2015; 1:e1500498. [PMID: 26601240 PMCID: PMC4643803 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2015] [Accepted: 07/20/2015] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century.
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Lubczyńska MJ, Christophi CA, Lelieveld J. Heat-related cardiovascular mortality risk in Cyprus: a case-crossover study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Environ Health 2015; 14:39. [PMID: 25930213 PMCID: PMC4432944 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-015-0025-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2014] [Accepted: 04/21/2015] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The frequency and intensity of heat waves is projected to increase in many parts of the world, particularly in regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), where the warming trends are much larger than the global average. The relationship between air temperature and premature mortality is widely recognized, however, it is not well defined in the aforementioned region. The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between cardiovascular mortality risk and air temperature in Cyprus, an island located centrally in the EMME. METHODS Daily cardiovascular mortality data and spatially aggregated daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures for the period 2004-2010 were analyzed using a case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag non-linear model. RESULTS A relationship between high temperatures and cardiovascular mortality was observed for cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic and other heart diseases; this relationship was exacerbated on days with high temperatures. The highest relative risk was observed on the day of the heat event and remained significantly elevated for another day. The results were consistent regardless whether the minimum, maximum, or mean temperatures were used, although the association seems to be more pronounced with the mean temperatures, which suggests that consecutive high day- and night-time temperatures are the most hazardous. CONCLUSIONS The identification of a positive relationship between high temperatures and cardiovascular mortality in Cyprus raises concerns. In view of the projected climate changes and strong increases in extreme heat events in the region, appropriate interventions need to be developed.
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Brühl C, Lelieveld J, Tost H, Höpfner M, Glatthor N. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2015; 120:2103-2118. [PMID: 25932352 PMCID: PMC4408860 DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2014] [Accepted: 02/03/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO2, the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m2. For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m2, leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.
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Waldock J, Parham PE, Lelieveld J, Christophides GK. Climate and human health: the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases, Paphos, Cyprus (17-19 October 2012). Pathog Glob Health 2014; 107:387-92. [PMID: 24428826 PMCID: PMC4073523 DOI: 10.1179/2047772413z.000000000161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
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Kleanthous S, Vrekoussis M, Mihalopoulos N, Kalabokas P, Lelieveld J. On the temporal and spatial variation of ozone in Cyprus. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2014; 476-477:677-87. [PMID: 24508856 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2013] [Revised: 12/20/2013] [Accepted: 12/21/2013] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
More than sixteen years (1997-2013) of continuous ozone concentrations at the rural Agia Marina (EMEP, 532 ma.s.l.) station in Cyprus, together with a number of ancillary chemical and meteorological parameters have been analyzed on a multiannual, annual and diurnal basis. The observations reveal a) the presence of a prominent seasonality with maxima observed during summer (54±5 ppbv) and the minima in winter (39±3 ppbv) b) a relatively small diurnal variability with the noon levels (50±9 ppbv) being higher by ~4 pbbv compared to nighttime (46±9 ppbv) and c) a non-significant upward trend over the 16 years of 0.11±0.12 ppbv y(-1). To assess the spatial variability over Cyprus, simultaneous measurements in 2011-2012 have been performed at Inia, Stavrovouni and Cavo Greco, three remote marine monitoring sites located to the west, central and the east of the Island, respectively. Our results show that ambient ozone levels over Cyprus are mostly influenced by regional/transported ozone while the local precursor emissions play a minor role in ozone formation. On an annual basis a net ozone reduction of 1.5 and 1.0 ppbv occurs when the air masses originate from northerly and westerly directions, respectively, while this is 2.4 ppbv during southerly wind. This suggests continuous net ozone loss controlled by surface deposition and photochemical destruction, and highlights the importance of long-range transport in controlling ozone levels in Cyprus.
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Waldock J, Chandra NL, Lelieveld J, Proestos Y, Michael E, Christophides G, Parham PE. The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology. Pathog Glob Health 2014; 107:224-41. [PMID: 23916332 DOI: 10.1179/2047773213y.0000000100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Aedes albopictus is a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses in the field, along with around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions. As an invasive mosquito species, Ae. albopictus has been expanding in geographical range over the past 20 years, although the poleward extent of mosquito populations is limited by winter temperatures. Nonetheless, population densities depend on environmental conditions and since global climate change projections indicate increasing temperatures and altered patterns of rainfall, geographic distributions of previously tropical mosquito species may change. Although mathematical models can provide explanatory insight into observed patterns of disease prevalence in terms of epidemiological and entomological processes, understanding how environmental variables affect transmission is possible only with reliable model parameterisation, which, in turn, is obtained only through a thorough understanding of the relationship between mosquito biology and environmental variables. Thus, in order to assess the impact of climate change on mosquito population distribution and regions threatened by vector-borne disease, a detailed understanding (through a synthesis of current knowledge) of the relationship between climate, mosquito biology, and disease transmission is required, but this process has not yet been undertaken for Ae. albopictus. In this review, the impact of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on Ae. albopictus development and survival are considered. Existing Ae. albopictus populations across Europe are mapped with current climatic conditions, considering whether estimates of climatic cutoffs for Ae. albopictus are accurate, and suggesting that environmental thresholds must be calibrated according to the scale and resolution of climate model outputs and mosquito presence data.
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Gross CBM, Dillon TJ, Schuster G, Lelieveld J, Crowley JN. Direct kinetic study of OH and O3 formation in the reaction of CH3C(O)O2 with HO2. J Phys Chem A 2014; 118:974-85. [PMID: 24491030 DOI: 10.1021/jp412380z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The reaction between HO2 and CH3C(O)O2 has three exothermic product channels, forming OH (R3a), peracetic acid (R3b), and acetic acid plus O3 (R3c). The branching ratios of the OH- and ozone-forming reaction channels were determined using a combination of laser-induced fluorescence (LIF, for time-resolved OH concentration measurement) and transient absorption spectroscopy (TAS, for time-resolved O3 concentration measurement) following pulsed laser generation of HO2 and CH3C(O)O2 from suitable precursors. TAS was also used to determine the initial concentration of the reactant peroxy radicals. The data were evaluated by numerical simulation using kinetic models of the measured concentration profiles; a Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the uncertainties of the rate constants (k3) and branching ratios (α) thus obtained. The reaction channel forming OH (R3a) was found to be the most important with α3a = 0.61 ± 0.09 and α3c = 0.16 ± 0.08. The overall rate coefficient of the title reaction was found to be k3 = (2.1 ± 0.4) × 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for both HO2 and DO2. Use of DO2 resulted in an increase in α3a to 0.80 ± 0.14. Comparison with former studies shows that OH formation via (R3) has been underestimated significantly to date. Possible reasons for these discrepancies and atmospheric implications are discussed.
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96
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Zittis G, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J. Comparison of WRF Model Physics Parameterizations over the MENA-CORDEX Domain. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2014. [DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.35042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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97
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Novelli A, Vereecken L, Lelieveld J, Harder H. Direct observation of OH formation from stabilised Criegee intermediates. Phys Chem Chem Phys 2014; 16:19941-51. [DOI: 10.1039/c4cp02719a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
The first direct observation of OH radicals from syn-CH3CHOO Criegee intermediates decomposition suggests it affects tropospheric chemistry and ambient OH measurements.
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98
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Polag D, Krapf LC, Heuwinkel H, Laukenmann S, Lelieveld J, Keppler F. Stable carbon isotopes of methane for real-time process monitoring in anaerobic digesters. Eng Life Sci 2013. [DOI: 10.1002/elsc.201200201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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99
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Schuck TJ, Ishijima K, Patra PK, Baker AK, Machida T, Matsueda H, Sawa Y, Umezawa T, Brenninkmeijer CAM, Lelieveld J. Distribution of methane in the tropical upper troposphere measured by CARIBIC and CONTRAIL aircraft. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd018199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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100
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Tanarhte M, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J. Intercomparison of temperature and precipitation data sets based on observations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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