Antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax blood-stage and sporozoite antigens in the postpartum period

During pregnancy a variety of immunological changes occur to accommodate the fetus. It is unknown whether these changes continue to affect humoral immunity postpartum or how quickly they resolve. IgG levels were measured to P. falciparum and P. vivax antigens in 201 postpartum and 201 controls over 12 weeks. Linear mixed-effects models assessed antibody maintenance over time and the effect of microscopically confirmed Plasmodium spp. infection on antibody levels, and whether this was different in postpartum women compared with control women. Postpartum women had reduced Plasmodium spp. antibody levels compared to controls at baseline. Over 12 weeks, mean antibody levels in postpartum women increased to levels observed in control women. Microscopically confirmed P. falciparum and P. vivax infections during follow-up were associated with an increase in species-specific antibodies with similar magnitudes of boosting observed in postpartum and control women. Antibodies specific for pregnancy-associated, VAR2CSA-expressing parasites did not rapidly decline postpartum and did not boost in response to infection in either postpartum or control women. After pregnancy, levels of malaria-specific antibodies were reduced, but recovered to levels seen in control women. There was no evidence of an impaired ability to mount a boosting response in postpartum women.

Plasmodium vivax infection: a major determinant of severe anaemia in infancy

BACKGROUND

Most malarious countries outside of Africa are co-endemic for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The comparative burden of anaemia in the community caused by these two species is incompletely characterized.

METHODS

A three-stage, cross-sectional, community survey was used to determine the proportion of moderate or severe anaemia (haemoglobin <7 g/dL) attributable to patent P. vivax, P. falciparum and mixed parasitaemia in Papua, Indonesia. Adjusted population-attributable fractions were calculated from multivariable logistic regression models. Eight hundred and twenty-five households were surveyed with a total of 5255 occupants, 3890 (74 %) of whom were present and provided a blood sample. Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia was present in 8.1 % (n = 315) of participants, P. vivax in 6.4 % (n = 250) and mixed infections in 1.9 % (n = 72). Overall, P. falciparum was associated with a mean reduction in haemoglobin of 1.16 g/dL compared to those without patent parasitaemia [95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.91, 1.41 g/dL]. The corresponding values for P. vivax and mixed infections were 0.66 g/dL (95 % CI 0.35, 0.96) and 1.25 g/dL (0.71, 1.80), respectively. Overall, 16.7 % (95 % CI 8.52, 24.2 %) of haemoglobin concentrations <7 g/dL in the community were estimated to be attributable to patent parasitaemia. The fractions for infants and 1-5 years old were 34.4 % (95 % CI -3.30, 58.3 %) and 23.2 % (95 % CI 3.34, 39.0 %), respectively. Plasmodium vivax was associated with a greater than threefold higher attributable fraction of anaemia in infants compared with P. falciparum [27.6 % (95 % CI -3.20, 49.2 %) versus 7.94 % (-5.87, 20.0 %)].

CONCLUSION

Despite comparatively low-level endemicity, malaria is associated with a significant proportion of all cases of community anaemia in southern Papua. Contrary to its benign reputation, P. vivax is an important and preventable risk factor for anaemia during infancy-a probable consequence of relapsing disease prior to the development of immunity.

Clinical and functional differences between early-onset and late-onset adult asthma: a population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study

BACKGROUND

Differences between early-onset and late-onset adult asthma have not been comprehensively described using prospective data.

AIMS

To characterise the differences between early-onset and late-onset asthma in a longitudinal cohort study.

METHODS

The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) is a population-based cohort. Respiratory histories and spirometry were first performed in 1968 when participants were aged 7 (n=8583). The cohort was traced and resurveyed from 2002 to 2005 (n=5729 responses) and a sample, enriched for asthma and bronchitis participated in a clinical study when aged 44 (n=1389).

RESULTS

Of the entire TAHS cohort, 7.7% (95% CI 6.6% to 9.0%) had early-onset and 7.8% (95% CI 6.4% to 9.4%) late-onset asthma. Atopy and family history were more common in early-onset asthma while female gender, current smoking and low socioeconomic status were more common in late-onset asthma. The impact on lung function of early-onset asthma was significantly greater than for late-onset asthma (mean difference prebronchodilator (BD) FEV₁/FVC -2.8% predicted (-5.3 to -0.3); post-BD FEV₁FVC -2.6% predicted (-5.0 to -0.1)). However, asthma severity and asthma score did not significantly differ between groups. An interaction between asthma and smoking was identified and found to be associated with greater fixed airflow obstruction in adults with late-onset asthma. This interaction was not evident in adults with early-onset disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-onset and late-onset adult asthma are equally prevalent in the middle-aged population. Major phenotypic differences occur with asthma age-of-onset; while both share similar clinical manifestations, the impact on adult lung function of early-onset asthma is greater than for late-onset asthma.

The effect of breastfeeding on lung function at 12 and 18 years: a prospective cohort study

The objective was to assess associations between duration of total and exclusive breastfeeding and lung function up to adolescence.A birth cohort (Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study) of 620 infants with a family history of allergic disease was recruited. Mothers were encouraged to breastfeed exclusively for 6 months. Lung function was assessed at 12 and 18 years of age. Associations between breastfeeding and lung function were investigated using multivariable linear regression and path analysis was used to assess the potential mediating factors.Duration of breastfeeding (total and exclusive) was not associated with most assessed lung function outcomes. However, there was a trend for increased pre-bronchodilator mid-expiratory flow (MEF) at both 12 (adjusted mean difference (95% CI) per week of breastfeeding of 10 (-1-20) mL·s(-1)) and 18 years (11 (-1-22) mL·s(-1)) (p-values of 0.07 and 0.08, respectively). There was a strong indirect effect of height on these observed associations.Duration of breastfeeding does not appear to greatly influence lung function outcomes in children with a family history of allergic diseases. Longer duration of exclusive breastfeeding may be associated with an increase in MEF, partly due to greater attained height of the child.

Health Risks in Same-Sex Attracted Ugandan University Students: Evidence from Two Cross-Sectional Studies

Widespread discrimination across much of sub-Saharan Africa against persons with same-sex sexuality, including recent attempts in Uganda to extend criminal sanctions against same-sex behavior, are likely to have profound effects on this group’s health, health care access, and well-being. Yet knowledge of the prevalence of same-sex sexuality in this region is scarce. This study aimed to systematically examine prevalence of same-sex sexuality and related health risks in young Ugandan adults. We conducted two cross-sectional survey studies in south-western Uganda targeting student samples (n = 980, n = 1954) representing 80% and 72% of the entire undergraduate classes attending a university in 2005 and 2010, respectively. A questionnaire assessed items concerning same-sex sexuality (same-sex attraction/fantasies, same-sex sexual relations), mental health, substance use, experience of violence, risky sexual behavior, and sexual health counseling needs. Our findings showed that same-sex sexual attraction/fantasies and behavior were common among male and female students, with 10–25% reporting having sexual attraction/fantasies regarding persons of the same-sex, and 6–16% reporting same-sex sexual relations. Experiences of same-sex sexuality were associated with health risks, e.g. poor mental health (2010, AOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0–2.3), sexual coercion (2010, AOR 2.9; CI: 1.9–4.6), and unmet sexual health counseling needs (2010, AOR 2.2; CI: 1.4–3.3). This first study of young adults in Uganda with same-sex sexuality found high levels of health needs but poor access to health care. Effective response is likely to require major shifts in current policy, efforts to reduce stigmatization, and reorientation of health services to better meet the needs of this vulnerable group of young people.

Home-based HPV self-sampling improves participation by never-screened and under-screened women: Results from a large randomized trial (iPap) in Australia

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to determine whether HPV self-sampling increases participation in cervical screening by never- and under-screened (not screened in past 5 years) women when compared with a reminder letter for a Pap test. Never- or under-screened Victorian women aged 30-69 years, not pregnant and with no prior hysterectomy were eligible. Within each stratum (never-screened and under-screened), we randomly allocated 7,140 women to self-sampling and 1,020 to Pap test reminders. The self-sampling kit comprised a nylon tipped flocked swab enclosed in a dry plastic tube. The primary outcome was participation, as indicated by returning a swab or undergoing a Pap test; the secondary outcome, for women in the self-sampling arm with a positive HPV test, was undergoing appropriate clinical investigation. The Roche Cobas® 4800 test was used to measure presence of HPV DNA. Participation was higher for the self-sampling arm: 20.3 versus 6.0% for never-screened women (absolute difference 14.4%, 95% CI: 12.6-16.1%, p < 0.001) and 11.5 versus 6.4% for under-screened women (difference 5.1%, 95% CI: 3.4-6.8%, p < 0.001). Of the 1,649 women who returned a swab, 45 (2.7%) were positive for HPV16/18 and 95 (5.8%) were positive for other high-risk HPV types. Within 6 months, 28 (62.2%) women positive for HPV16/18 had colposcopy as recommended and nine (20%) had cytology only. Of women positive for other high-risk HPV types, 78 (82.1%) had a Pap test as recommended. HPV self-sampling improves participation in cervical screening for never- and under-screened women and most women with HPV detected have appropriate clinical investigation.

HealthMap: a cluster randomised trial of interactive health plans and self-management support to prevent coronary heart disease in people with HIV

BACKGROUND

The leading causes of morbidity and mortality for people in high-income countries living with HIV are now non-AIDS malignancies, cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases associated with ageing. This protocol describes the trial of HealthMap, a model of care for people with HIV (PWHIV) that includes use of an interactive shared health record and self-management support. The aims of the HealthMap trial are to evaluate engagement of PWHIV and healthcare providers with the model, and its effectiveness for reducing coronary heart disease risk, enhancing self-management, and improving mental health and quality of life of PWHIV.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study is a two-arm cluster randomised trial involving HIV clinical sites in several states in Australia. Doctors will be randomised to the HealthMap model (immediate arm) or to proceed with usual care (deferred arm). People with HIV whose doctors are randomised to the immediate arm receive 1) new opportunities to discuss their health status and goals with their HIV doctor using a HealthMap shared health record; 2) access to their own health record from home; 3) access to health coaching delivered by telephone and online; and 4) access to a peer moderated online group chat programme. Data will be collected from participating PWHIV (n = 710) at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months and from participating doctors (n = 60) at baseline and 12 months. The control arm will be offered the HealthMap intervention at the end of the trial. The primary study outcomes, measured at 12 months, are 1) 10-year risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death as estimated by a Framingham Heart Study risk equation; and 2) Positive and Active Engagement in Life Scale from the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ).

DISCUSSION

The study will determine the viability and utility of a novel technology-supported model of care for maintaining the health and wellbeing of people with HIV. If shown to be effective, the HealthMap model may provide a generalisable, scalable and sustainable system for supporting the care needs of people with HIV, addressing issues of equity of access.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Universal Trial Number (UTN) U111111506489; ClinicalTrial.gov Id NCT02178930 submitted 29 June 2014.

Analysis of ex vivo drug response data of Plasmodium clinical isolates: the pros and cons of different computer programs and online platforms

Background

In vitro drug susceptibility testing of malaria parasites remains an important component of surveillance for anti-malarial drug resistance. The half-maximal inhibition of growth (IC₅₀) is the most commonly reported parameter expressing drug susceptibility, derived by a variety of statistical approaches, each with its own advantages and disadvantages.

Methods

In this study, licensed computer programs WinNonlin and GraphPad Prism 6.0, and the open access programs HN-NonLin, Antimalarial ICEstimator (ICE), and In Vitro Analysis and Reporting Tool (IVART) were tested for their ease of use and ability to estimate reliable IC₅₀ values from raw drug response data from 31 Plasmodium falciparum and 29 P. vivax clinical isolates tested with five anti-malarial agents: chloroquine, amodiaquine, piperaquine, mefloquine, and artesunate.

Results

The IC₅₀ and slope estimates were similar across all statistical packages for all drugs tested in both species. There was good correlation of results derived from alternative statistical programs and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) which models all isolate data simultaneously. The user-friendliness varied between packages. While HN-NonLin and IVART allow users to enter the data in 96-well format, IVART and GraphPad Prism 6.0 are capable to analyse multiple isolates and drugs in parallel. WinNonlin, GraphPad Prism 6.0, IVART, and ICE provide alerts for non-fitting data and incorrect data entry, facilitating data interpretation. Data analysis using WinNonlin or ICE took the longest computationally, whilst the offline ability of GraphPad Prism 6.0 to analyse multiple isolates and drugs simultaneously made it the fastest among the programs tested.

Conclusion

IC₅₀ estimates obtained from the programs tested were comparable. In view of processing time and ease of analysis, GraphPad Prism 6.0 or IVART are best suited for routine and large-scale drug susceptibility testing.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1173-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Change in weight and waist circumference and risk of colorectal cancer: results from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Studies reporting the association between change in weight or body mass index during midlife and risk of colorectal cancer have found inconsistent results, and only one study to date has reported the association between change in waist circumference (a measure of central adiposity) and risk of colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We investigated the association between risk of colorectal cancer and changes in directly measured waist circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007). Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for covariates selected from a causal model, was used to estimate the Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs) for the change in waist circumference and weight in relation to risk of colorectal cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 373 cases of colorectal cancer were diagnosed during an average 9 years of follow-up of 20,605 participants. Increases in waist circumference and weight were not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (HR per 5 cm increase in waist circumference = 1.02; 95 % CI: 0.95, 1.10; HR per 5 kg increase in weight = 0.93; 0.85, 1.02). For individuals with a waist circumference at baseline that was less than the sex-specific mean value there was a slight increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with a 5 cm increase in waist circumference at wave 2 (HR = 1.08; 0.97, 1.21).

CONCLUSION

Increases in waist circumference and weight during midlife do not appear to be associated with the risk of colorectal cancer.

Maternal-foetal transfer of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax antibodies in a low transmission setting

During pregnancy immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies are transferred from mother to neonate across the placenta. Studies in high transmission areas have shown transfer of P. falciparum-specific IgG, but the extent and factors influencing maternal-foetal transfer in low transmission areas co-endemic for both P. falciparum and P. vivax are unknown. Pregnant women were screened weekly for Plasmodium infection. Mother-neonate paired serum samples at delivery were tested for IgG to antigens from P. falciparum, P. vivax and other infectious diseases. Antibodies to malarial and non-malarial antigens were highly correlated between maternal and neonatal samples (median [range] spearman ρ = 0.78 [0.57-0.93]), although Plasmodium spp. antibodies tended to be lower in neonates than mothers. Estimated gestational age at last P. falciparum infection, but not P. vivax infection, was positively associated with antibody levels in the neonate (P. falciparum merozoite, spearman ρ median [range] 0.42 [0.33-0.66], PfVAR2CSA 0.69; P. vivax ρ = 0.19 [0.09-0.3]). Maternal-foetal transfer of anti-malarial IgG to Plasmodium spp. antigens occurs in low transmission settings. P. vivax IgG acquisition is not associated with recent exposure unlike P. falciparum IgG, suggesting a difference in acquisition of antibodies. IgG transfer is greatest in the final weeks of pregnancy which has implications for the timing of future malaria vaccination strategies in pregnant women.

Safety of artemisinins in first trimester of prospectively followed pregnancies: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Artemisinins, the most effective antimalarials available, are not recommended for falciparum malaria during the first trimester of pregnancy because of safety concerns. Therefore, quinine is used despite its poor effectiveness. Assessing artemisinin safety requires weighing the risks of malaria and its treatment. We aimed to assess the effect of first-trimester malaria and artemisinin treatment on miscarriage and major congenital malformations.

METHODS

In this observational study, we assessed data from antenatal clinics on the Thai-Myanmar border between Jan 1, 1994, and Dec 31, 2013. We included women who presented to antenatal clinics during their first trimester with a viable fetus. Women were screened for malaria, and data on malaria, antimalarial treatment, and birth outcomes were collected. The relationship between artemisinin treatments (artesunate, dihydroartemisinin, or artemether) and miscarriage or malformation was assessed using Cox regression with left-truncation and time-varying exposures.

FINDINGS

Of 55 636 pregnancies registered between 1994 and 2013, 25 485 pregnancies were analysed for first-trimester malaria and miscarriage, in which 2558 (10%) had first-trimester malaria. The hazard of miscarriage increased 1·61-fold after an initial first-trimester falciparum episode (95% CI 1·32-1·97; p<0·0001), 3·24-fold following falciparum recurrence (2·24-4·68; p<0·0001), and 2·44-fold (1·01-5·88; p=0·0473) following recurrent symptomatic vivax malaria. No difference was noted in miscarriage in first-line falciparum treatments with artemisinin (n=183) versus quinine (n=842; HR 0·78 [95% CI 0·45-1·34]; p=0·3645) or in risk of major congenital malformations (two [2%] of 109 [95% CI 0·22-6·47] versus eight (1%) of 641 [0·54-2·44], respectively).

INTERPRETATION

First-trimester falciparum and vivax malaria both increase the risk of miscarriage. We noted no evidence of an increased risk of miscarriage or of major congenital malformations associated with first-line treatment with an artemisinin derivative compared with quinine. In view of the low efficacy of quinine and wide availability of highly effective artemisinin-based combination therapies, it is time to reconsider first-trimester antimalarial treatment recommendations.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Plasmodium malariae Infection Associated with a High Burden of Anemia: A Hospital-Based Surveillance Study

Background

Plasmodium malariae is a slow-growing parasite with a wide geographic distribution. Although generally regarded as a benign cause of malaria, it has been associated with nephrotic syndrome, particularly in young children, and can persist in the host for years. Morbidity associated with P. malariae infection has received relatively little attention, and the risk of P. malariae-associated nephrotic syndrome is unknown.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used data from a very large hospital-based surveillance system incorporating information on clinical diagnoses, blood cell parameters and treatment to describe the demographic distribution, morbidity and mortality associated with P. malariae infection in southern Papua, Indonesia. Between April 2004 and December 2013 there were 1,054,674 patient presentations to Mitra Masyarakat Hospital of which 196,380 (18.6%) were associated with malaria and 5,097 were with P. malariae infection (constituting 2.6% of all malaria cases). The proportion of malaria cases attributable to P. malariae increased with age from 0.9% for patients under one year old to 3.1% for patients older than 15 years. Overall, 8.5% of patients with P. malariae infection required admission to hospital and the median length of stay for these patients was 2.5 days (Interquartile Range: 2.0–4.0 days). Patients with P. malariae infection had a lower mean hemoglobin concentration (9.0g/dL) than patients with P. falciparum (9.5g/dL), P. vivax (9.6g/dL) and mixed species infections (9.3g/dL). There were four cases of nephrotic syndrome recorded in patients with P. malariae infection, three of which were in children younger than 5 years old, giving a risk in this age group of 0.47% (95% Confidence Interval; 0.10% to 1.4%). Overall, 2.4% (n = 16) of patients hospitalized with P. malariae infection subsequently died in hospital, similar to the proportions for the other endemic Plasmodium species (range: 0% for P. ovale to 1.6% for P. falciparum).

Conclusions/Significance

Plasmodium malariae infection is relatively uncommon in Papua, Indonesia but is associated with significant morbidity from anemia and a similar risk of mortality to patients hospitalized with P. falciparum and P. vivax infection. In our large hospital database, one in 200 children under the age of 5 years with P. malariae infection were recorded as having nephrotic syndrome.

Plasmodium malariae is a relatively rare, but widely distributed, cause of malaria. It can persist in the human host for years, often without causing significant symptoms. As a result, P. malariae will be a very difficult species to eradicate. Our study used data from a routine hospital-based surveillance system in southern Papua, Indonesia to describe the clinical epidemiology of P. malariae infections. Over a 10-year period there were 5,097 patient presentations to Mitra Masyarakat Hospital associated with P. malariae infection constituting 2.6% of all malaria cases. Patients with P. malariae malaria had a significantly older age distribution than those with P. vivax infections. They also had lower mean hemoglobin concentrations than patients infected with P. falciparum, P. vivax or mixed Plasmodium species. We speculate that this may be due to chronic hemolysis of parasitized and non-parasitized red cells as a result of persistent infection. One in 200 children under the age of 5 years with P. malariae infection were recorded as having nephrotic syndrome, a well-known but to date unquantified complication. Overall, 0.3% of patients with P. malariae malaria died. These findings emphasize the need to consider this parasite when designing comprehensive malaria elimination strategies.

Exclusive breast feeding in early infancy reduces the risk of inpatient admission for diarrhea and suspected pneumonia in rural Vietnam: a prospective cohort study

Background

Acute respiratory infections and diarrhea remain the leading causes of infant morbidity and mortality, with a high burden of both pneunomia and diarrhea in South-East Asia. The aim of the study was to determine antenatal and early infant predictive factors for severe morbidity episodes during the first 6 months of life in Ha Nam province, Vietnam.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of 1049 infants, born to women who had previously participated in a cluster randomized controlled trial of antenatal micronutrient supplementation in rural Vietnam, was undertaken between 28th September 2010 and 8th Jan 2012. Infants were followed until 6 months of age, and the outcome measure was inpatient admission for suspected pneumonia or diarrheal illness during the first 6 months of life. Risk factors were assessed using univariable logistic regression and multiple logistic regression.

Results

Of the 1049 infants seen at 6 months of age, 8.8 % required inpatient admission for suspected pneumonia and 4 % of infants required inpatient admission for diarrheal illness. One third of infants (32.8 %) were exclusively breast fed at 6 weeks of age. Exclusive breast feeding at 6 weeks of age significantly reduced the odds of inpatient admission for suspected pneumomia (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.39, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 0.20 to 0.75) and diarrheal illness (OR 0.37, 95 % CI 0.15 to 0.88).

Conclusions

Exclusive breast feeding in early infancy reduces the risk of severe illness from diarrhea and suspected pneumonia. Public health programs to reduce the burden of inpatient admission from diarrheal and respiratory illness in rural Vietnam should address barriers to exclusive breast feeding.

Women's experience with home-based self-sampling for human papillomavirus testing

Background

Increasing cervical screening coverage by reaching inadequately screened groups is essential for improving the effectiveness of cervical screening programs. Offering HPV self-sampling to women who are never or under-screened can improve screening participation, however participation varies widely between settings. Information on women’s experience with self-sampling and preferences for future self-sampling screening is essential for programs to optimize participation.

Methods

The survey was conducted as part of a larger trial (“iPap”) investigating the effect of HPV self-sampling on participation of never and under-screened women in Victoria, Australia. Questionnaires were mailed to a) most women who participated in the self-sampling to document their experience with and preference for self-sampling in future, and b) a sample of the women who did not participate asking reasons for non-participation and suggestions for enabling participation. Reasons for not having a previous Pap test were also explored.

Results

About half the women who collected a self sample for the iPap trial returned the subsequent questionnaire (746/1521). Common reasons for not having cervical screening were that having Pap test performed by a doctor was embarrassing (18 %), not having the time (14 %), or that a Pap test was painful and uncomfortable (11 %). Most (94 %) found the home-based self-sampling less embarrassing, less uncomfortable (90 %) and more convenient (98 %) compared with their last Pap test experience (if they had one); however, many were unsure about the test accuracy (57 %). Women who self-sampled thought the instructions were clear (98 %), it was easy to use the swab (95 %), and were generally confident that they did the test correctly (81 %). Most preferred to take the self-sample at home in the future (88 %) because it was simple and did not require a doctor’s appointment. Few women (126/1946, 7 %) who did not return a self-sample in the iPap trial returned the questionnaire. Their main reason for not screening was having had a hysterectomy.

Conclusions

Home-based self-sampling can overcome emotional and practical barriers to Pap test and increase participation in cervical screening despite some women’s concerns about test accuracy. Mailing to eligible women and assuring women about test accuracy could further optimize participation in screening.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-015-1804-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Whole genome sequencing reveals genomic heterogeneity and antibiotic purification in Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates

BACKGROUND

Whole genome sequencing has revolutionised the interrogation of mycobacterial genomes. Recent studies have reported conflicting findings on the genomic stability of Mycobacterium tuberculosis during the evolution of drug resistance. In an age where whole genome sequencing is increasingly relied upon for defining the structure of bacterial genomes, it is important to investigate the reliability of next generation sequencing to identify clonal variants present in a minor percentage of the population. This study aimed to define a reliable cut-off for identification of low frequency sequence variants and to subsequently investigate genetic heterogeneity and the evolution of drug resistance in M. tuberculosis.

METHODS

Genomic DNA was isolated from single colonies from 14 rifampicin mono-resistant M. tuberculosis isolates, as well as the primary cultures and follow up MDR cultures from two of these patients. The whole genomes of the M. tuberculosis isolates were sequenced using either the Illumina MiSeq or Illumina HiSeq platforms. Sequences were analysed with an in-house pipeline.

RESULTS

Using next-generation sequencing in combination with Sanger sequencing and statistical analysis we defined a read frequency cut-off of 30% to identify low frequency M. tuberculosis variants with high confidence. Using this cut-off we demonstrated a high rate of genetic diversity between single colonies isolated from one population, showing that by using the current sequencing technology, single colonies are not a true reflection of the genetic diversity within a whole population and vice versa. We further showed that numerous heterogeneous variants emerge and then disappear during the evolution of isoniazid resistance within individual patients. Our findings allowed us to formulate a model for the selective bottleneck which occurs during the course of infection, acting as a genomic purification event.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated true levels of genetic diversity within an M. tuberculosis population and showed that genetic diversity may be re-defined when a selective pressure, such as drug exposure, is imposed on M. tuberculosis populations during the course of infection. This suggests that the genome of M. tuberculosis is more dynamic than previously thought, suggesting preparedness to respond to a changing environment.

Evaluation of a weighting approach for performing sensitivity analysis after multiple imputation

Background

Multiple imputation (MI) is a well-recognised statistical technique for handling missing data. As usually implemented in standard statistical software, MI assumes that data are ‘Missing at random’ (MAR); an assumption that in many settings is implausible. It is not possible to distinguish whether data are MAR or ‘Missing not at random’ (MNAR) using the observed data, so it is desirable to discover the impact of departures from the MAR assumption on the MI results by conducting sensitivity analyses. A weighting approach based on a selection model has been proposed for performing MNAR analyses to assess the robustness of results obtained under standard MI to departures from MAR.

Methods

In this article, we use simulation to evaluate the weighting approach as a method for exploring possible departures from MAR, with missingness in a single variable, where the parameters of interest are the marginal mean (and probability) of a partially observed outcome variable and a measure of association between the outcome and a fully observed exposure. The simulation studies compare the weighting-based MNAR estimates for various numbers of imputations in small and large samples, for moderate to large magnitudes of departure from MAR, where the degree of departure from MAR was assumed known. Further, we evaluated a proposed graphical method, which uses the dataset with missing data, for obtaining a plausible range of values for the parameter that quantifies the magnitude of departure from MAR.

Results

Our simulation studies confirm that the weighting approach outperformed the MAR approach, but it still suffered from bias. In particular, our findings demonstrate that the weighting approach provides biased parameter estimates, even when a large number of imputations is performed. In the examples presented, the graphical approach for selecting a range of values for the possible departures from MAR did not capture the true parameter value of departure used in generating the data.

Conclusions

Overall, the weighting approach is not recommended for sensitivity analyses following MI, and further research is required to develop more appropriate methods to perform such sensitivity analyses.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0074-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Weight change and risk of colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Results from cohort studies of adult weight gain and risk of colorectal cancer are inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies assessing the association of change in weight/body mass index with colorectal cancer risk. We searched Scopus and Web of Science up to June 2014 and supplemented the search with manual searches of the reference lists of the identified articles. Thirteen studies published between 1997 and 2014 were pooled by using a random-effects model, and potential heterogeneity was explored by fitting meta-regression models. The highest weight gain category, measured by weight/body mass index, compared with a reference category, was associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.24), whereas no association was found for weight loss (HR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.05). There was no suggestion of heterogeneity across studies. For dose response, a 5-kg weight gain was associated with a slightly increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.05), with some heterogeneity observed (I(2) = 42%; P = 0.02), which was partially explained by sex (ratio of HRs = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.07). In this meta-analysis, gain in weight/body mass index was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk.

Targeting the cell stress response of Plasmodium falciparum to overcome artemisinin resistance

Successful control of falciparum malaria depends greatly on treatment with artemisinin combination therapies. Thus, reports that resistance to artemisinins (ARTs) has emerged, and that the prevalence of this resistance is increasing, are alarming. ART resistance has recently been linked to mutations in the K13 propeller protein. We undertook a detailed kinetic analysis of the drug responses of K13 wild-type and mutant isolates of Plasmodium falciparum sourced from a region in Cambodia (Pailin). We demonstrate that ART treatment induces growth retardation and an accumulation of ubiquitinated proteins, indicative of a cellular stress response that engages the ubiquitin/proteasome system. We show that resistant parasites exhibit lower levels of ubiquitinated proteins and delayed onset of cell death, indicating an enhanced cell stress response. We found that the stress response can be targeted by inhibiting the proteasome. Accordingly, clinically used proteasome inhibitors strongly synergize ART activity against both sensitive and resistant parasites, including isogenic lines expressing mutant or wild-type K13. Synergy is also observed against Plasmodium berghei in vivo. We developed a detailed model of parasite responses that enables us to infer, for the first time, in vivo parasite clearance profiles from in vitro assessments of ART sensitivity. We provide evidence that the clinical marker of resistance (delayed parasite clearance) is an indirect measure of drug efficacy because of the persistence of unviable parasites with unchanged morphology in the circulation, and we suggest alternative approaches for the direct measurement of viability. Our model predicts that extending current three-day ART treatment courses to four days, or splitting the doses, will efficiently clear resistant parasite infections. This work provides a rationale for improving the detection of ART resistance in the field and for treatment strategies that can be employed in areas with ART resistance.

Resistance to artemisinin antimalarial drugs is jeopardizing malaria control. This study shows that proteasome-mediated stress responses can be targeted to overcome artemisinin resistance and suggests alternate therapeutic regimens and monitoring strategies.

Resistance to artemisinin antimalarials, some of the most effective antimalarial drugs, has emerged in Southeast Asia, jeopardizing malaria control. We have undertaken a detailed study of artemisinin-sensitive and-resistant strains of Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite responsible for malaria, taken directly from the field in a region where resistance is developing. We compared these strains to lab strains engineered with either mutant or wild-type resistance alleles. We demonstrate that in sensitive P. falciparum, artemisinin induces growth retardation and accumulation of ubiquitinated proteins, indicating that the drugs activate the cellular stress response. Resistant parasites, on the other hand, exhibit reduced protein ubiquitination and delayed onset of cell death following drug exposure. We show that proteasome inhibitors strongly synergize artemisinin activity, offering a means of overcoming artemisinin resistance. We have developed a detailed model of parasite responses and have modelled in vivo clearance profiles. Our data indicate that extending artemisinin treatment from the standard three-day treatment to a four-day treatment will clear resistant parasites, thus preserving the use of this critical therapy in areas experiencing artemisinin resistance.

Statistical methods for handling unwanted variation in metabolomics data

Metabolomics experiments are inevitably subject to a component of unwanted variation, due to factors such as batch effects, long runs of samples, and confounding biological variation. Although the removal of this unwanted variation is a vital step in the analysis of metabolomics data, it is considered a gray area in which there is a recognized need to develop a better understanding of the procedures and statistical methods required to achieve statistically relevant optimal biological outcomes. In this paper, we discuss the causes of unwanted variation in metabolomics experiments, review commonly used metabolomics approaches for handling this unwanted variation, and present a statistical approach for the removal of unwanted variation to obtain normalized metabolomics data. The advantages and performance of the approach relative to several widely used metabolomics normalization approaches are illustrated through two metabolomics studies, and recommendations are provided for choosing and assessing the most suitable normalization method for a given metabolomics experiment. Software for the approach is made freely available.

Lennie: a smartphone application with novel implications for the management of animal colonies

Researchers rely on animals for their clinical applicability and ease of monitoring. However, careful management is required to ensure the animal and financial costs are minimized. The incorporation of 'smartphone' technology in research has increased exponentially, with a focus on the development of innovative research-based applications. We have developed a smartphone application designed to address the needs of modern researchers in the management of their colonies. 'Lennie' introduces a new method for the management of small to medium-sized animal colonies. Lennie allows users wireless access to their colonies with the ability to create and edit from virtually anywhere. Lennie also offers the ability to manage colonies based on experiments by assigning animals based on priority. Experimental time-points are also recorded with integrated scheduling options using the calendar function. Lennie represents an alternative to current large-scale software options, as the application design is simple, and requires no training or manuals. As the technological landscape is constantly evolving, we must continue to find ways to improve upon current practices to ensure that research is completed with efficiency and efficacy. With this new method of animal management, researchers are able to spend less time record keeping and can focus their efforts on continued innovation.

Antenatal and early infant predictors of postnatal growth in rural Vietnam: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine which antenatal and early-life factors were associated with infant postnatal growth in a resource-poor setting in Vietnam.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective longitudinal study following infants (n=1046) born to women who had previously participated in a cluster randomised trial of micronutrient supplementation (ANZCTR:12610000944033), Ha Nam province, Vietnam. Antenatal and early infant factors were assessed for association with the primary outcome of infant length-for-age z scores at 6 months of age using multivariable linear regression and structural equation modelling.

RESULTS

Mean length-for-age z score was -0.58 (SD 0.94) and stunting prevalence was 6.4%. Using structural equation modelling, we highlighted the role of infant birth weight as a predictor of infant growth in the first 6 months of life and demonstrated that maternal body mass index (estimated coefficient of 45.6 g/kg/m(2); 95% CI 34.2 to 57.1), weight gain during pregnancy (21.4 g/kg; 95% CI 12.6 to 30.1) and maternal ferritin concentration at 32 weeks' gestation (-41.5 g per twofold increase in ferritin; 95% CI -78 to -5.0) were indirectly associated with infant length-for-age z scores at 6 months of age via birth weight. A direct association between 25-(OH) vitamin D concentration in late pregnancy and infant length-for-age z scores (estimated coefficient of -0.06 per 20 nmol/L; 95% CI -0.11 to -0.01) was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal nutritional status is an important predictor of early infant growth. Elevated antenatal ferritin levels were associated with suboptimal infant growth in this setting, suggesting caution with iron supplementation in populations with low rates of iron deficiency.

Women's views on human papillomavirus self-sampling: focus groups to assess acceptability, invitation letters and a test kit in the Australian setting

Background The study evaluated acceptability, invitation letters and the test kit for a trial of human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling among never- and under-screened women in Australia.

METHODS

Victorian women, 30-69 years, who had never had a Pap test or were overdue for one, participated. Four focus groups including eight to nine participants segmented by age (30-49 and 50-69 years) and screening history (never- and under-screened) were conducted in August 2013. Discussions were recorded and transcribed verbatim and data analysed using thematic content analysis.

RESULTS

The response to the concept of HPV self-sampling was positive. Decision-making was largely influenced by the content of a pre-invitation letter. Appealing features of self-sampling were cost (free), convenience (home-based) and anticipated less discomfort (with a swab) than a Pap test. Small kits that fit in mailboxes were preferred over post office parcel collection. The perceived barriers include concerns about test accuracy and lack of confidence that a home-based test would give the same results as a physician administered test. Women wanted information on the timing of receipt of the results and information about the organisation providing the test.

CONCLUSION

HPV self-sampling is a possible alternative for Australian women who are reluctant to have a Pap test and may increase the likelihood of participation in cervical cancer screening if women's concerns about it can be addressed. The findings of this study are relevant for researchers, policymakers and practitioners implementing self-sampling for under-screened women as part of cervical screening programs.

Paracetamol exposure in pregnancy and early childhood and development of childhood asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

While paracetamol exposure in pregnancy and early infancy has been associated with asthma, it remains unclear whether this is confounded by respiratory tract infections, which have been suggested as an alternative explanation. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies that reported the association between paracetamol exposure during pregnancy or infancy and the subsequent development of childhood asthma (≥5 years).

METHODS

Two independent researchers searched the databases EMBASE and PUBMED on 12 August 2013 for relevant articles using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Study quality was assessed and results were pooled using fixed effect models or random effect models when moderate between-study heterogeneity was observed. We explicitly assessed whether the observed associations are due to confounding by respiratory tract infections.

RESULTS

Eleven observational cohort studies met the inclusion criteria. Any paracetamol use during the first trimester was related to increased risk of childhood asthma (5 studies, pooled OR=1.39, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.91) but there was marked between-study heterogeneity (I(2)=63%) and only one of these studies adjusted for maternal respiratory tract infections. Increasing frequency of use of paracetamol during infancy was associated with increased odds of childhood asthma (3 studies, pooled OR=1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.31 per doubling of days exposure), but in these same three studies adjusting for respiratory tract infections reduced this association (OR=1.06, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.22).

DISCUSSION

The association during early pregnancy exposure was highly variable between studies and exposure during infancy appears to be moderately confounded by respiratory tract infections. There is insufficient evidence to warrant changing guidelines on early life paracetamol exposure at this time.

Modelling the time course of antimalarial parasite killing: a tour of animal and human models, translation and challenges

Malaria remains a global public health concern and current treatment options are suboptimal in some clinical settings. For effective chemotherapy, antimalarial drug concentrations must be sufficient to remove completely all of the parasites in the infected host. Optimized dosing therefore requires a detailed understanding of the time course of antimalarial response, whilst simultaneously considering the parasite life cycle and host immune elimination. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended the development of mathematical models for understanding better antimalarial drug resistance and management. Other international groups have also suggested that mechanistic pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) models can support the rationalization of antimalarial dosing strategies. At present, artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended as first line treatment of falciparum malaria for all patient groups. This review summarizes the PK-PD characterization of artemisinin derivatives and other partner drugs from both preclinical studies and human clinical trials. We outline the continuous and discrete time models that have been proposed to describe antimalarial activity on specific stages of the parasite life cycle. The translation of PK-PD predictions from animals to humans is considered, because preclinical studies can provide rich data for detailed mechanism-based modelling. While similar sampling techniques are limited in clinical studies, PK-PD models can be used to optimize the design of experiments to improve estimation of the parameters of interest. Ultimately, we propose that fully developed mechanistic models can simulate and rationalize ACT or other treatment strategies in antimalarial chemotherapy.

Population pharmacokinetics of intravenous artesunate: a pooled analysis of individual data from patients with severe malaria

There are ~660,000 deaths from severe malaria each year. Intravenous artesunate (i.v. ARS) is the first-line treatment in adults and children. To optimize the dosing regimen of i.v. ARS, the largest pooled population pharmacokinetic study to date of the active metabolite dihydroartemisinin (DHA) was performed. The pooled dataset consisted of 71 adults and 195 children with severe malaria, with a mixture of sparse and rich sampling within the first 12 h after drug administration. A one-compartment model described the population pharmacokinetics of DHA adequately. Body weight had the greatest impact on DHA pharmacokinetics, resulting in lower DHA exposure for smaller children (6–10 kg) than adults. Post hoc estimates of DHA exposure were not significantly associated with parasitological outcomes. Comparable DHA exposure in smaller children and adults after i.v. ARS was achieved under a dose modification for intramuscular ARS proposed in a separate analysis of children.

The feasibility and clinical efficacy of intravenous iron administration for preoperative anaemia in patients with colorectal cancer

AIM

The study aimed to analyse the feasibility and efficacy of administration of a single intravenous iron infusion (IVI) in the preoperative optimization of colorectal cancer patients with anaemia.

METHOD

Twenty patients were recruited at least 14 days before the planned date of surgery. A single 1000 mg dose of ferric carboxymaltose (Ferinject) was administered as an outpatient procedure. Blood samples were taken at recruitment prior to drug administration (REC), on the day of surgery prior to any intervention (DOS) and on the first postoperative day. Allogeneic red blood cell transfusions (ARBT) and outcomes were recorded from recruitment throughout the study period.

RESULTS

There was a significant median rise in haemoglobin levels (Hb) from REC to DOS of 1.8 g/dl [interquartile range (IQR) 0.75-2.45, P < 0.001] for the entire cohort. Two patients received ARBT preoperatively, and for those not transfused preoperatively (n = 18), this incremental Hb rise remained significant (P < 0.001, median 1.65 g/dl, IQR 0.5-2.3). Of these patients, those who responded to IVI had higher erythropoietin (EPO) levels at recruitment (P < 0.01) and lower recruitment Hb values, transferrin-saturation (TSAT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (P < 0.05). REC Hb (Rs = -0.62, P < 0.01), REC TSAT levels (Rs = -0.67, P < 0.01) and REC EPO (Rs = 0.69, P < 0.01) correlated with the magnitude of treatment change in Hb levels. Five patients received ARBT until the fourth postoperative day, which was significantly fewer than predicted (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

IVI can be administered preoperatively in the outpatient clinic to colorectal cancer patients with anaemia, with associated reduction in ARBT use and increase in Hb levels.

The influence of laparoscopy on incisional hernia rates: a retrospective analysis of 1057 colorectal cancer resections

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of incisional hernia formation after laparoscopic and open surgery for colorectal cancer.

METHOD

A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1057 colorectal cancer resection cases (289 laparoscopic, 768 open) performed in a single national laparoscopic training centre between January 2006 and December 2011. Clinical notes and serial computed tomography scans were reviewed, with any incisional hernia including those at a surgical incision, port site, stoma and stoma closure site identified and the size of the defect measured.

RESULTS

The overall incisional hernia rate was 14.8%. There was no significant difference between the open and laparoscopic groups (14.4% vs 15.9%, P = 0.566). Excluding stoma-related hernia, 10.7% of the open group developed a surgical wound hernia, and 11.1% of the laparoscopic group developed a hernia at a port site, extraction site or surgical midline incision. There was no statistical difference between the two groups (P = 0.853). The defects were smaller in the laparoscopic group (P < 0.005). There were significantly more parastomal hernias in the laparoscopic group (40%) than in the open group (12.7%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of incisional hernia formation was similar after laparoscopic or open surgery for colorectal cancer. Parastomal hernia was more frequent after laparoscopic surgery.

Postnatal growth outcomes and influence of maternal gestational weight gain: a prospective cohort study in rural Vietnam

Background

Suboptimal weight gain during pregnancy may result in adverse outcomes for both the mother and child, including increased risk of pre-eclampsia and gestational diabetes, delivery of low birth weight and small-for-gestational age (SGA) infants, and preterm delivery. The objectives of this study were to identify maternal predictors of rate of weight gain in pregnancy, and to evaluate the association of gestational weight gain with infant postnatal growth outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study of infants born to women who had previously participated in a double-blind cluster randomized controlled trial of antenatal micronutrient supplementation, in Ha Nam province, Vietnam. Pregnant women (n = 1258) were seen at enrolment and 32 weeks gestation, and infants (n = 965) were followed until 6 months of age. Primary outcome was infant anthropometric indicators at 6 months of age (weight for age, length for age, weight for height z scores), and infant weight gain velocity during the first 6 months of life.

Results

Low body mass index (<18.5 kg/m²) was present in 26% of women, and rate of gestational weight gain was 0.4 kg per week [SD 0.12]. Rate of weight gain during pregnancy was significantly associated with infant weight-for-age (MD 1.13, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.68), length-for-age (MD 1.11, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.55), weight-for-length z scores (MD 0.63, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.19), and infant weight gain velocity during the first 6 months of life (MD 93.6 g per month, 95% CI 8.2 to 179.0).

Conclusions

Rate of gestational weight gain is predictive of postnatal growth at six months of age in this setting. Public health programs should be targeted towards improving body mass index and weight gain in pregnant women in rural Vietnam.

Immunological markers of Plasmodium vivax exposure and immunity: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Identifying Plasmodium vivax antigen-specific antibodies associated with P. vivax infection and protective immunity is key to the development of serosurveillance tools and vaccines for malaria. Antibody targets of P. vivax can be identified by seroepidemiological studies of individuals living in P. vivax-endemic areas, and is an important strategy given the limited ability to culture P. vivax in vitro. There have been numerous studies investigating the association between P. vivax antibody responses and P. vivax infection, but there has been no standardization of results to enable comparisons across populations.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis of population-based, cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies of individuals living in P. vivax-endemic areas. We searched 6 databases and identified 18 studies that met predefined inclusion and quality criteria, and examined the association between antibody responses to P. vivax antigens and P. vivax malaria.

RESULTS

The majority of studies were published in South America (all from Brazil) and the rest from geographically diverse areas in the Asia-Pacific region. Considerable heterogeneity in estimates was observed, but IgG responses to PvCSP, PvMSP-119, PvMSP-9RIRII, and PvAMA1 were associated with increased odds of P. vivax infection in geographically diverse populations. Potential sources of heterogeneity included study design, different transmission intensities and transmigrant populations. Protective associations were observed for antibodies to PvMSP-119, PvMSP-1NT, PvMSP-3α and PvMSP-9NT antigens, but only in single geographical locations.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review revealed several antigen-specific antibodies that were associated with active infection and protective immunity, which may be useful biomarkers. However, more studies are needed on additional antigens, particularly cohort studies to increase the body of evidence for protective immunity. More studies representing diverse geographical regions encompassing varying P. vivax endemicities are needed to validate the generalizability of the findings and to provide a solid evidence base for the use of P. vivax antigens in vaccines and serosurveillance tools.

Severe malarial thrombocytopenia: a risk factor for mortality in Papua, Indonesia

Background

The significance of thrombocytopenia to the morbidity and mortality of malaria is poorly defined. We compared the platelet counts and clinical correlates of patients with and those without malaria in southern Papua, Indonesia.

Methods

Data were collated on patients presenting to a referral hospital between April 2004 and December 2012.

Results

Platelet measurements were available in 215 479 patients (23.4%), 66 421 (30.8%) of whom had clinical malaria. Patients with Plasmodium falciparum monoinfection had the lowest platelet counts and greatest risk of severe thrombocytopenia (platelet count, <50 000 platelets/µL), compared with those without malaria (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 6.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.77–6.30]). The corresponding risks were 5.4 (95% CI, 5.02–5.80) for mixed infections, 3.73 (95% CI, 3.51–3.97) for Plasmodium vivax infection, and 2.16 (95% CI, 1.78–2.63) for Plasmodium malariae infection (P < .001). In total, 1.3% of patients (2701 of 215 479) died. Patients with severe malarial anemia alone (hemoglobin level, <5 g/dL) had an adjusted OR for death of 4.93 (95% CI, 3.79–6.42), those with severe malarial thrombocytopenia alone had an adjusted OR of 2.77 (95% CI, 2.20–3.48), and those with both risk factors had an adjusted OR of 13.76 (95% CI, 10.22–18.54; P < .001).

Conclusions

Severe thrombocytopenia identifies both children and adults at increased risk of death from falciparum or vivax malaria, particularly in those with concurrent severe anemia.

Making the most of clinical data: reviewing the role of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of anti-malarial drugs

Mechanistic within-host models integrating blood anti-malarial drug concentrations with the parasite-time profile provide a valuable decision tool for determining dosing regimens for anti-malarial treatments, as well as a formative component of population-level drug resistance models. We reviewed published anti-malarial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models to identify the challenges for these complex models where parameter estimation from clinical field data is limited. The inclusion of key pharmacodynamic processes in the mechanistic structure adopted varies considerably. These include the life cycle of the parasite within the red blood cell, the action of the anti-malarial on a specific stage of the life cycle, and the reduction in parasite growth associated with immunity. With regard to estimation of the pharmacodynamic parameters, the majority of studies simply compared descriptive summaries of the simulated outputs to published observations of host and parasite responses from clinical studies. Few studies formally estimated the pharmacodynamic parameters within a rigorous statistical framework using observed individual patient data. We recommend three steps in the development and evaluation of these models. Firstly, exploration through simulation to assess how the different parameters influence the parasite dynamics. Secondly, application of a simulation-estimation approach to determine whether the model parameters can be estimated with reasonable precision based on sampling designs that mimic clinical efficacy studies. Thirdly, fitting the mechanistic model to the clinical data within a Bayesian framework. We propose that authors present the model both schematically and in equation form and give a detailed description of each parameter, including a biological interpretation of the parameter estimates.

The impact of breastfeeding on lung development and function: a systematic review

With the global trend of increasing asthma and allergic disorders there is strong interest regarding early life nutrition as a potentially modifiable risk factor for lung disease. This systematic review includes 10 studies that assessed the effect of breastfeeding on lung growth and function. The review found breastfeeding to be beneficial for lung function, with the most consistent effect on increased forced vital capacity. There was no clear evidence that the relationship between breastfeeding and lung function was mediated through other factors. Furthermore, the findings from the few studies that investigated if maternal asthma modified the effect of breastfeeding on lung function were inconsistent. Further research is needed to determine the specific details such as duration and type (exclusive vs partial) of breastfeeding that leads to improved lung function.

Statistical power calculations for mixed pharmacokinetic study designs using a population approach

Simultaneous modelling of dense and sparse pharmacokinetic data is possible with a population approach. To determine the number of individuals required to detect the effect of a covariate, simulation-based power calculation methodologies can be employed. The Monte Carlo Mapped Power method (a simulation-based power calculation methodology using the likelihood ratio test) was extended in the current study to perform sample size calculations for mixed pharmacokinetic studies (i.e. both sparse and dense data collection). A workflow guiding an easy and straightforward pharmacokinetic study design, considering also the cost-effectiveness of alternative study designs, was used in this analysis. Initially, data were simulated for a hypothetical drug and then for the anti-malarial drug, dihydroartemisinin. Two datasets (sampling design A: dense; sampling design B: sparse) were simulated using a pharmacokinetic model that included a binary covariate effect and subsequently re-estimated using (1) the same model and (2) a model not including the covariate effect in NONMEM 7.2. Power calculations were performed for varying numbers of patients with sampling designs A and B. Study designs with statistical power >80% were selected and further evaluated for cost-effectiveness. The simulation studies of the hypothetical drug and the anti-malarial drug dihydroartemisinin demonstrated that the simulation-based power calculation methodology, based on the Monte Carlo Mapped Power method, can be utilised to evaluate and determine the sample size of mixed (part sparsely and part densely sampled) study designs. The developed method can contribute to the design of robust and efficient pharmacokinetic studies.

Change in body size and mortality: results from the Melbourne collaborative cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between change in weight or body mass index, and mortality is widely reported, however, both measures fail to account for fat distribution. Change in waist circumference, a measure of central adiposity, in relation to mortality has not been studied extensively.

METHODS

We investigated the association between mortality and changes in directly measured waist circumference, hips circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007) in a prospective cohort study of people aged 40-69 years at baseline. Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for confounding variables, was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for change in body size in relation to mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer.

RESULTS

There were 1465 deaths (109 cancer, 242 cardiovascular disease) identified during an average 7.7 years of follow-up from 21 298 participants. Compared to minimal increase in body size, loss of waist circumference (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09-1.47), weight (1.80; 1.54-2.11), or hips circumference (1.35; 1.15-1.57) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, particularly for older adults. Weight loss was associated with cardiovascular disease mortality (2.40; 1.57-3.65) but change in body size was not associated with obesity-related cancer mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the association between weight loss and increased mortality from all-causes for older adults. Based on evidence from observational cohort studies, weight stability may be the recommended option for most adults, especially older adults.

Quantifying low birth weight, preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age effects of malaria in pregnancy: a population cohort study

Background

The association between malaria during pregnancy and low birth weight (LBW) is well described. This manuscript aims to quantify the relative contribution of malaria to small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants and preterm birth (PTB) in pregnancies accurately dated by ultrasound on the Thai-Myanmar border at the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit.

Methods and Findings

From 2001 to 2010 in a population cohort of prospectively followed pregnancies, we analyzed all singleton newborns who were live born, normal, weighed in the first hour of life and with a gestational age (GA) between 28+0 and 41+6 weeks. Fractional polynomial regression was used to determine the mean birthweight and standard deviation as functions of GA. Risk differences and factors of LBW and SGA were studied across the range of GA for malaria and non-malaria pregnancies. From 10,264 newborns records, population centiles were created.

Women were screened for malaria by microscopy a median of 22 [range 1–38] times and it was detected and treated in 12.6% (1,292) of pregnancies. Malaria was associated with LBW, PTB, and SGA compared to those without malaria. Nearly two-thirds of PTB were classified as LBW (68% (539/789)), most of which 83% (447/539) were not SGA. After GA 39 weeks, 5% (298/5,966) of non-LBW births were identified as SGA. Low body mass index, primigravida, hypertension, smoking and female sex of the newborn were also significantly and independently associated with LBW and SGA consistent with previous publications.

Conclusions

Treated malaria in pregnancy was associated with an increased risk for LBW, PTB, and SGA, of which the latter are most important for infant survival. Using LBW as an endpoint without adjusting for GA incorrectly estimated the effects of malaria in pregnancy. Ultrasound should be used for dating pregnancies and birth weights should be expressed as a function (or adjusted for GA) of GA in future malaria in pregnancy studies.

Maternal vitamin D status and infant outcomes in rural Vietnam: a prospective cohort study

Objective

Vitamin D deficiency affects 1 billion people globally. It has an important role in bone homeostasis, brain development and modulation of the immune system and yet the impact of antenatal vitamin D deficiency on infant outcomes is poorly understood. We assessed the association of 25- hydroxyvitamin D levels (25-OHD) in late pregnancy and early infant growth and developmental outcomes in rural Vietnam.

Design and Methods

A prospective cohort study of 960 women who had previously participated in a double-blind cluster randomized controlled trial of antenatal micronutrient supplementation in rural Vietnam was undertaken. Maternal 25-OHD concentration was measured at 32 weeks gestation, and infants were followed until 6 months of age. Main outcome measures were cognitive, motor, socio-emotional and language scores using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 3^rd edition, and infant length-for-age z scores at 6 months of age.

Results

60% (582/960) of women had 25-OHD levels <75 nmol/L at 32 weeks gestation. Infants born to women with 25-OHD deficiency (<37.5 nmol/L) had reduced developmental language scores compared to those born to women who were vitamin D replete (≥75 nmol/L) (Mean Difference (MD) −3.48, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) −5.67 to −1.28). For every 25 nmol increase in 25-OHD concentration in late pregnancy, infant length-for-age z scores at 6 months of age decreased by 0.08 (95% CI −0.15 to −0.02).

Conclusions

Low maternal 25- hydroxyvitamin D levels during late pregnancy are of concern in rural Vietnam, and are associated with reduced language developmental outcomes at 6 months of age. Our findings strengthen the evidence for giving vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy.

Hypoxia, not hypercapnia, induces cardiorespiratory failure in rats

Mechanical respiratory loads induce cardiorespiratory failure, presumably by increasing O2 demand concurrently with decreases in O2 availability (decreased PaO2). We tested the hypothesis that asphyxia alone can cause cardiorespiratory failure ("failure") in pentobarbital-anesthetized rats. We also tested the hypothesis that hypoxia, not hypercapnia, is responsible by supplying supplemental O2 during mechanical loading in a separate group of rats. Asphyxia (mean PaO2 and PaCO2 of 43 and 69mmHg, respectively) resulted in failure, evident as a slowing of mean respiratory frequency (133-83breaths/min) and a sudden and large drop in mean arterial pressure (71-47mmHg), after 214±66min (n=16; range 117-355min). Neither respiratory drive nor heart rate decreased, indicating that failure was peripheral, not central. Of 8 rats tested after 3h of asphyxia for the presence in blood of cardiac troponin T, all were positive. In an additional 6 rats, normocapnic hypoxia (mean PaCO2 and PaO2 were 39±2.2 and 41±3.1mmHg, respectively) caused failure after an average 205min (range 181-275min), no different from that of asphyxic rats. In the 6 rats that breathed O2 during an initially moderate inspiratory resistive load, endurances exceeded 7h (failure occurring only because we increased the load after 6h) and tracheal pressure and left ventricular dP/dt were maintained despite supercarbia (PaCO2>150mmHg). Thus, asphyxia alone can induce failure, the failure is due to hypoxia, not hypercapnia, and hypercapnia has minimal effects on cardiac and respiratory muscle function in the presence of hyperoxia.

Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001-2011

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults.

METHODS

Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia's five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence.

FINDINGS

The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011.

CONCLUSION

Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

Gestational diabetes mellitus prevalence in Maela refugee camp on the Thai-Myanmar border: a clinical report

Background

Individuals in conflict-affected areas rarely get appropriate care for chronic or non-infectious diseases. The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing worldwide, and new evidence shows conclusively that the negative effects of hyperglycemia occur even at mild glucose elevations and that these negative effects can be attenuated by treatment. Scientific literature on gestational diabetes in refugee camp settings is critically limited.

Methods

A 75 g 2-hour glucose tolerance test was administered to 228 women attending the antenatal care (ANC) clinic in Maela refugee camp on the Thai–Myanmar border. Prevalence of GDM was determined using the HAPO trial cut-offs [≥92 mg/dL (fasting),≥180 (1 hour), and≥153 (2 hour)] and the WHO criteria [≥126 mg/dL (fasting), and 140 mg/dL (2 hour)].

Results

From July 2011 to March 2012, the prevalence of GDM was 10.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2–14.0] when the cut-off determined by the HAPO trial was applied. Applying the older WHO criteria yielded a prevalence of 6.6% (95% CI 3.3–9.8). Age, parity, and BMI emerged as characteristics that may be significantly associated with GDM in this population. Other risk factors that are commonly used in screening guidelines were not applicable in this diabetes-naïve population.

Discussion

The prevalence of GDM is lower in this population compared with other populations, but still complicates 10% of pregnancies. New evidence regarding gestational diabetes raises new dilemmas for healthcare providers in resource-poor settings. Efforts to identify and treat patients at risk for adverse outcomes need to be balanced with awareness of the risks and burdens associated with over diagnosis and unnecessary interventions. Screening approaches based on risk factors or using higher cut-off values may help minimize this burden and identify those most likely to benefit from intervention.

Same-day assessment and management of urgent (2-week wait) colorectal referrals: an analysis of the outcome of 1606 patients attending an endoscopy unit-based colorectal clinic

AIM

The Rapid Access Diagnosis and Remedy (RADAR) clinic combines 2-week wait (TWW) specialist consultation with 'straight-to-test' flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) for left-sided 'red-flag' TWW criteria (excluding right-sided mass or iron-deficiency anaemia). The study aims were to determine the effectiveness of RADAR in differentiating colorectal cancer from benign disease and to evaluate the need for whole colonic investigation (WCI) following FS, in symptomatic patients.

METHOD

Prospectively collated data of all RADAR patients from November 2005 to November 2009 were analysed, excluding patients referred internally for a FS. The local histology database was later interrogated to detect any missed cancers.

RESULTS

Of 1690 patients (729 men; median (range) age: 68 (18-96) years) assessed in RADAR, 84 were excluded. Colorectal cancer (CRC) was diagnosed in 117 (7.3%). Eighty-seven cancers were diagnosed on the day of attendance and a further 13 within a week (88.9% overall). Two patients after a cancer-free FS were found to have a right-sided CRC on WCI (0.24%) and one synchronous cancer was found. No patient with a cancer-free FS having a WCI was subsequently found to have CRC at a median of 35 (12-58) months.

CONCLUSION

Flexible sigmoidoscopy, in the context of an endoscopy unit TWW clinic, allows same-day diagnosis of most patients referred with left-sided symptoms, and immediate reassurance and treatment of most benign diagnoses. For these patients, the use of routine WCI following a cancer-free FS does not appear to be beneficial. Adopting this system would significantly reduce the number of barium enemas and colonoscopies currently performed.

Rationale and design of the iPap trial: a randomized controlled trial of home-based HPV self-sampling for improving participation in cervical screening by never- and under-screened women in Australia

BACKGROUND

Organized screening based on Pap tests has substantially reduced deaths from cervical cancer in many countries, including Australia. However, the impact of the program depends upon the degree to which women participate. A new method of screening, testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA to detect the virus that causes cervical cancer, has recently become available. Because women can collect their own samples for this test at home, it has the potential to overcome some of the barriers to Pap tests. The iPap trial will evaluate whether mailing an HPV self-sampling kit increases participation by never- and under-screened women within a cervical screening program.

METHODS/DESIGN

The iPap trial is a parallel randomized controlled, open label, trial. Participants will be Victorian women age 30-69 years, for whom there is either no record on the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry (VCCR) of a Pap test (never-screened) or the last recorded Pap test was between five to fifteen years ago (under-screened). Enrolment information from the Victorian Electoral Commission will be linked to the VCCR to determine the never-screened women. Variables that will be used for record linkage include full name, address and date of birth. Never- and under-screened women will be randomly allocated to either receive an invitation letter with an HPV self-sampling kit or a reminder letter to attend for a Pap test, which is standard practice for women overdue for a test in Victoria. All resources have been focus group tested. The primary outcome will be the proportion of women who participate, by returning an HPV self-sampling kit for women in the self-sampling arm, and notification of a Pap test result to the Registry for women in the Pap test arm at 3 and 6 months after mailout. The most important secondary outcome is the proportion of test-positive women who undergo further investigations at 6 and 12 months after mailout of results.

DISCUSSION

The iPap trial will provide strong evidence about whether HPV self-sampling could be used in Australia to improve participation in cervical screening for never-and under-screened women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ANZCTR Identifier: ACTRN12613001104741; UTN: U1111-1148-3885.

Outcomes after biological mesh reconstruction of the pelvic floor following extra-levator abdominoperineal excision of rectum (APER)

BACKGROUND

Extra-levator abdominoperineal excision of the rectum (ELAPER) for low rectal cancer is used to avoid the adverse oncological outcomes of inadvertent perforation and a positive circumferential resection margin associated with the conventional APER technique. This wider excision creates a large defect requiring pelvic floor reconstruction, and there is still controversy regarding the best method of closure. The aim of this study is to present outcomes of biological mesh pelvic floor reconstruction following ELAPER.

METHODS

Prospective data on consecutive patients having ELAPER for low rectal cancer at a single UK institution between October 2008 and March 2013 were collected. The perineum was reconstructed using a biological mesh and the short-term outcomes were evaluated, focusing particularly on perineal wound complications and perineal hernias.

RESULTS

Thirty-four patients were included [median age 62 years, range 40-72 years, 27 males (79 %)]. The median operative time was 248 min (range 120-340 min). The median length of hospital stay was 9 days (range 4-20 days). There were three perineal complications (9 %) requiring surgical intervention, but no meshes were removed. There were no perineal hernias. The median length of follow-up was 21 months (range 1-54 months). The overall mortality was 9 % from distant metastases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our series adds to the increasing evidence that good outcomes can be achieved for pelvic floor reconstruction with biological mesh following ELAPER without the additional use of myocutaneous flaps. The low serious complication rate, good outcomes in perineal wound healing and the absence of perineal hernias demonstrates that this is a safe and feasible procedure.