Analyses of the short- and long-term graft survival after kidney transplantation in Europe between 1986 and 2015

The evolution of kidney allograft survival remains insufficiently studied in the context of the changing donor and recipient demographics. Since European data are lacking we performed a cohort study (1986-2015) that, based on the Collaborative Transplant Study, included 108 787 recipients of brain-death kidney donors in 135 hospitals across 21 European countries. We analyzed the hazard rate of kidney failure after transplantation. Between 1986 and 1999, improvement in graft survival was more pronounced in the short term than in the long term: one-, five- and ten-year hazard rates after transplantation declined 64% (95% confidence interval, 61%-66%), 53% (49%-57%) and 45% (39%-50%), respectively. Between 2000 and 2015, hazard rates at one, five and ten years post-transplant declined respectively 22% (12-30%), 47% (36-56%) and 64% (45-76%). Improvement in graft survival in the first five years post-transplant was significantly less since 2000, while improvement after five years was comparable to before. During the 2000-2015 period improvement of graft survival was greater in the long than in the short term. These changes were independent of changing donor and recipient characteristics, and reflect the evolution in global kidney transplant management over the past decades. Unfortunately, after accounting for the evolution of donor and recipient characteristics, we found that short-term improvement in graft survival decreased since 2000, while long-term improvement remained unchanged in Europe. Thus, deceleration of short-term graft survival improvement in more recent years illustrates an unmet need for innovation.

The 1-year Renal Biopsy Index: a scoring system to drive biopsy indication at 1-year post-kidney transplantation

Surveillance biopsies after renal transplantation remain debatable. To drive the decision of such intervention, we propose a predictive score of abnormal histology at 1-year post-transplantation, named 1-year Renal Biopsy Index (1-RBI). We studied 466 kidney recipients from the DIVAT cohort alive with a functioning graft and a surveillance biopsy at 1-year post-transplantation. Patients displaying abnormal histology (49%) (borderline, acute rejection, interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy [IFTA] grade 2 or 3, glomerulonephritis) were compared to the normal or subnormal (IFTA grade 1) histology group. Obtained from a lasso penalized logistic regression, the 1-RBI was composed of recipient gender, serum creatinine at 3, 6, and 12 month post-transplantation and anticlass II immunization at transplantation (internal validation: AUC = 0.71, 95% CI [0.53-0.83]; external validation: AUC = 0.62, 95% CI [0.58-0.66]). While we could not determinate a threshold able to identify patients at high chance of normal or subnormal histology, we estimated and validated a discriminating threshold capable of identifying a subgroup of 15% of the patients with a risk of abnormal histology higher than 80%. The 1-RBI is computable online at www.divat.fr. The 1-RBI could be a useful tool to standardize 1-year biopsy proposal and may for instance help to indicate one in case of high risk of abnormal histology.

Propensity score-based comparison of the graft failure risk between kidney transplant recipients of standard and expanded criteria donor grafts: Toward increasing the pool of marginal donors

From a prospective and multicentric French cohort, we proposed an external validation study for the expanded criteria donor (ECD), based on 4833 kidney recipients transplanted for the first time between 2000 and 2014. We estimated the subject-specific effect from a multivariable Cox model. We confirmed a 1.75-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53-2.00, P < .0001) increase in graft failure risk if a given patient received an ECD graft compared to a graft from a donor with standard criteria (standard criteria donor [SCD]). Complementarily, we estimated the population-average effect using propensity scores. We estimated a 1.34-fold (95% CI 1.09-1.64, P = .0049) increase in graft failure risk among ECD patients receiving an ECD graft compared to receiving a SCD graft. With a 10-year follow-up, it corresponded to a decrease of 8 months of the mean time to graft failure due to ECD transplantation (95% CI 2-14 months). The population-average relative risk due to ECD transplantation and the corresponding absolute effect seem finally not so high. Regarding the increase of quality of life in transplantation, our study constitutes an argument to extend the definition of marginality by considering more grafts at high risk and thereby enlarging the pool of kidney grafts.

HCMV triggers frequent and persistent UL40-specific unconventional HLA-E-restricted CD8 T-cell responses with potential autologous and allogeneic peptide recognition

Immune response against human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) includes a set of persistent cytotoxic NK and CD8 T cells devoted to eliminate infected cells and to prevent reactivation. CD8 T cells against HCMV antigens (pp65, IE1) presented by HLA class-I molecules are well characterized and they associate with efficient virus control. HLA-E-restricted CD8 T cells targeting HCMV UL40 signal peptides (HLA-EUL40) have recently emerged as a non-conventional T-cell response also observed in some hosts. The occurrence, specificity and features of HLA-EUL40 CD8 T-cell responses remain mostly unknown. Here, we detected and quantified these responses in blood samples from healthy blood donors (n = 25) and kidney transplant recipients (n = 121) and we investigated the biological determinants involved in their occurrence. Longitudinal and phenotype ex vivo analyses were performed in comparison to HLA-A*02/pp65-specific CD8 T cells. Using a set of 11 HLA-E/UL40 peptide tetramers we demonstrated the presence of HLA-EUL40 CD8 αβT cells in up to 32% of seropositive HCMV+ hosts that may represent up to 38% of total circulating CD8 T-cells at a time point suggesting a strong expansion post-infection. Host's HLA-A*02 allele, HLA-E *01:01/*01:03 genotype and sequence of the UL40 peptide from the infecting strain are major factors affecting the incidence of HLA-EUL40 CD8 T cells. These cells are effector memory CD8 (CD45RAhighROlow, CCR7-, CD27-, CD28-) characterized by a low level of PD-1 expression. HLA-EUL40 responses appear early post-infection and display a broad, unbiased, Vβ repertoire. Although induced in HCMV strain-dependent, UL4015-23-specific manner, HLA-EUL40 CD8 T cells are reactive toward a broader set of nonapeptides varying in 1-3 residues including most HLA-I signal peptides. Thus, HCMV induces strong and life-long lasting HLA-EUL40 CD8 T cells with potential allogeneic or/and autologous reactivity that take place selectively in at least a third of infections according to virus strain and host HLA concordance.

Increased degradation of ATP is driven by memory regulatory T cells in kidney transplantation tolerance

Regulatory T cells were recently proposed as the central actor in operational tolerance after renal transplantation. Tolerant patients harbor increased FoxP3hi memory Treg frequency and increased demethylation in the Foxp3 Treg-specific demethylated region when compared to stable kidney recipients and exhibit greater memory Treg suppressive capacities and higher expression of the ectonucleotidase CD39. However, in this particular and unique situation the mechanisms of action of Tregs were not identified. Thus, we analyzed the ability of memory Tregs to degrade extracellular ATP in tolerant patients, healthy volunteers, and patients with stable graft function under immunosuppression and determined the role of immunosuppressive drugs on this process. The conserved proportion of memory Tregs leads to the establishment of a pro-tolerogenic balance in operationally tolerant patients. Memory Tregs in tolerant patients display normal capacity to degrade extracellular ATP/ADP. In contrast, memory Tregs from patients with stable graft function do not have this ability. Finally, in vitro, immunosuppressive drugs may favor the lower proportion of memory Tregs in stable patients, but they have no effect on CD39-dependent ATP degradation and do not explain memory Treg lack of extracellular ATP/ADP degradation ability. Thus, intrinsic active regulatory mechanisms may act long after immunosuppressive drug arrest in operationally tolerant patients and may contribute to kidney allograft tolerance via the maintenance of CD39 Treg function.

Preemptive second kidney transplantation is associated with better graft survival compared with non-preemptive second transplantation: a multicenter French 2000-2014 cohort study

The impact of preemptive second kidney transplantation (2KT) on graft and patient survival is poorly established. The association between preemptive 2KT (p2KT, N = 93) and outcomes was estimated in a multicenter French cohort of 2KT (N = 1314) recipients using propensity score methods. During the follow-up, there were 274 returns to dialysis and 134 deaths. p2KT was associated with lower death-censored graft loss (HR = 0.39 [0.18-0.88], P = 0.024) and graft failure from any cause including death (HR = 0.42 [0.22-0.80], P = 0.008). Similar associations were observed for death with a functioning graft, although not reaching statistical significance (HR = 0.47 [0.17-1.26], P = 0.13). There was a significant interaction between donor type and p2KT (P for interaction = 0.016). Indeed, p2KT was not significantly associated with the risk of graft failure from any cause including death in living donor 2KT (P = 0.39), whereas the association was substantial in the deceased donor subset (HR = 0.30 [0.14-0.64], P = 0.002). Of note, the adjusted graft survival of p2KT with deceased donor paralleled that of 2KT with living donor, either preemptive or not (93.8% vs. 88.6% at 4 years and 76.1% vs. 70.5% at 8 years, P = 0.13). This large French multicenter study analyzed using propensity scores suggests that p2KT is associated with better graft prognosis.

Broad Impairment of Natural Killer Cells from Operationally Tolerant Kidney Transplanted Patients

The role of natural killer (NK) cells in organ transplantation is controversial. This study aims to decipher their role in kidney transplant tolerance in humans. Previous studies highlighted several modulated genes involved in NK cell biology in blood from spontaneously operationally tolerant patients (TOLs; drug-free kidney-transplanted recipients with stable graft function). We performed a phenotypic, functional, and genetic characterization of NK cells from these patients compared to kidney-transplanted patients with stable graft function under immunosuppression and healthy volunteers (HVs). Both operationally TOLs and stable patients harbored defective expression of the NKp46 activator receptor and lytic molecules perforin and granzyme compared to HVs. Surprisingly, NK cells from operationally TOLs also displayed decreased expression of the CD16 activating marker (in the CD56^Dim NK cell subset). This decrease was associated with impairment of their functional capacities upon stimulation, as shown by lower interferon gamma (IFNγ) production and CD107a membranous expression in a reverse antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) assay, spontaneous lysis assays, and lower target cell lysis in the ⁵¹Cr release assay compared to HVs. Conversely, despite impaired K562 cell lysis in the ⁵¹Cr release assay, patients with stable graft function harbored a normal reverse ADCC and even increased amounts of IFNγ⁺ NK cells in the spontaneous lysis assay. Altogether, the strong impairment of the phenotype and functional cytotoxic capacities of NK cells in operationally TOLs may accord with the establishment of a pro-tolerogenic environment, despite remaining highly activated after transplantation in patients with stable graft function.

Horizontal mixture model for competing risks: a method used in waitlisted renal transplant candidates

When a patient is registered on renal transplant waiting list, she/he expects a clear information on the likelihood of being transplanted. Nevertheless, this event is in competition with death and usual models for competing events are difficult to interpret for non-specialists. We used a horizontal mixture model. Data were extracted from two French dialysis and transplantation registries. The "Ile-de-France" region was used for external validation. The other patients were randomly divided for training and internal validation. Seven variables were associated with decreased long-term probability of transplantation: age over 40 years, comorbidities (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, malignancy), dialysis longer than 1 year before registration and blood groups O or B. We additionally demonstrated longer mean time-to-transplantation for recipients under the age of 50, overweight recipients, recipients with blood group O or B and with pre-transplantation anti-HLA class I or II immunization. Our model can be used to predict the long-term probability of transplantation and the time in dialysis among transplanted patients, two easily interpretable parts. Discriminative capacities were validated on both the internal and external (AUC at 5 years = 0.72, 95% CI from 0.68 to 0.76) validation samples. However, calibration issues were highlighted and illustrated the importance of complete re-estimation of the model for other countries. We illustrated the ease of interpretation of horizontal modelling, which constitutes an alternative to sub-hazard or cause-specific approaches. Nevertheless, it would be useful to test this in practice, for instance by questioning both the physicians and the patients. We believe that this model should also be used in other chronic diseases, for both etiologic and prognostic studies.

Looking at hospitalized persons throughout the prism of the handicap

OBJECTIVE

To describe the disability status of non-selected hospitalized persons.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey to assess activity limitations of every person older than 18 years hospitalized in a regional university hospital covering all medical fields. Evaluators rated, on a scale from 0 to 4, 22 selected items of the International Classification of Functioning (ICF), covering the 6 following domains: learning and applying knowledge, general tasks and demands, communication, mobility, self-care, and interpersonal interactions and relationships. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyze the prevalence, severity and profile of the handicap in terms of sociodemographic characteristics and care pathways.

RESULTS

Among 1572 eligible persons, 1267 (81%) were surveyed (mean age 62.7±20.4years; 655 males [51.7%]). Overall, 82% showed at least one activity limitation. For 52%, disability was severe or total for at least one ICF item. Prevalence of disabilities was higher for mobility (75%) and self-care domains (63%). Disability was strongly related to age: age older than 80years versus 18 to 44years (OR=12.8 95% CI 6.4-27.9]; P<0.01). Disability was associated with hospitalization in rehabilitation units (96%; OR=4.3 [95% CI 2.2-5.3]; P<0.01). Severe disability was associated with hospitalization in critical care units (OR=6.7 [CI 3.2-15.1]; P<0.001) and psychiatry units (OR=5.3 [CI 2.7-11.4]; P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Handicap was common in hospitalized persons, involving all 6 tested ICF activity domains, particularly mobility and self-care. This study alerts care givers, hospital administrators, and in general, people influencing health policies about the need to plan actions to reduce activity limitations of hospitalized persons, whatever the cause of the hospitalization.

IL-15 Harnesses Pro-inflammatory Function of TEMRA CD8 in Kidney-Transplant Recipients

The involvement of TEMRA CD8 is evident in a large array of immunological conditions ranging from auto- to allo-immunity. Nevertheless, the factors leading to their accumulation and activation remain ill-defined and, efficient therapeutics to control their inflammatory response is lacking. Here, we show that IL-15-stimulated TEMRA from kidney-transplant (KT) recipients promote inflammation by inducing the expression of CX3CL1 by endothelial cells in an IFN-γ- and TNF-α-dependent manner. The responsiveness of TEMRA to IL-15 is not restricted to chronic stimulation, as TEMRA from healthy volunteers respond earlier and faster when compared to effector memory (EM). IL-15 induces antiapoptotic signals and promotes proliferation dependent of PI3K/Akt, MAPK, and ERK pathways. Without ex vivo stimulation, TEMRA cells are metabolically more active than naive and EM, as shown by their high ATP reservoir and a high expression of genes involved in glycolysis, glutaminolysis, and the Pentose Phosphate Pathway. Upon stimulation, TEMRA adapt their metabolism by sustaining an increased mitochondrial respiration and glycolysis. Finally, we show that the inhibition of glycolysis is highly effective in preventing endothelial inflammation induced by TEMRA from KT recipients. Together, our findings highlight the metabolic fitness that tightly regulates the immune function of TEMRA in physiological and pathogenic situations.

Standardized and weighted time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves to evaluate the intrinsic prognostic capacities of a marker by taking into account confounding factors

Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves allow to evaluate the capacity of a marker to discriminate between subjects who experience the event up to a given prognostic time from those who are free of this event. In this article, we propose an inverse probability weighting estimator of a standardized and weighted time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. This estimator provides a measure of the prognostic capacities by taking into account potential confounding factors. We illustrate the robustness of the estimator by a simulation-based study and its usefulness by two applications in kidney transplantation.

Renal Operational Tolerance Is Associated With a Defect of Blood Tfh Cells That Exhibit Impaired B Cell Help

Renal operationally tolerant patients (TOL) display a defect in B cell differentiation, with a deficiency in plasma cells. Recently described, T follicular helper (Tfh) cells play a critical role in B cell differentiation. We analyzed blood Tfh subsets in TOL and transplanted patients with stable graft function under immunosuppression (STA). We observed a reduced proportion of blood activated and highly functional Tfh subsets in TOL, without affecting Tfh absolute numbers. Functionally, Tfh cells from TOL displayed a modified gene expression profile, failed to produce interleukin-21, and were unable to induce IgG production by naive B cells. This Tfh defect is linked to a low incidence of postgraft de novo donor-specific antibody (dnDSA) immunization, suggesting that the lack of Tfh cells in TOL may induce a protolerogenic environment with reduced risk of developing dnDSA. Finally, we showed that elevated Tfh in STA precedes the occurrence of dnDSA during an alloresponse. These data provide new insights into the mechanisms of antibody response in operational tolerance. Disrupted homeostasis and impaired Tfh function in TOL could lead to a reduced risk of developing dnDSA and suggest a predictive role of blood Tfh cells on the occurrence of dnDSA in transplant recipients.

A composite score associated with spontaneous operational tolerance in kidney transplant recipients

New challenges in renal transplantation include using biological information to devise a useful clinical test for discerning high- and low-risk patients for individual therapy and ascertaining the best combination and appropriate dosages of drugs. Based on a 20-gene signature from a microarray meta-analysis performed on 46 operationally tolerant patients and 266 renal transplant recipients with stable function, we applied the sparse Bolasso methodology to identify a minimal and robust combination of six genes and two demographic parameters associated with operational tolerance. This composite score of operational tolerance discriminated operationally tolerant patients with an area under the curve of 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.94-1.00). The score was not influenced by immunosuppressive treatment, center of origin, donor type, or post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder history of the patients. This composite score of operational tolerance was significantly associated with both de novo anti-HLA antibodies and tolerance loss. It was validated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction using independent samples and demonstrated specificity toward a model of tolerance induction. Thus, our score would allow clinicians to improve follow-up of patients, paving the way for individual therapy.

Failure of Calcineurin Inhibitor (Tacrolimus) Weaning Randomized Trial in Long-Term Stable Kidney Transplant Recipients

Long-term renal transplant outcome is limited by side effects of immunosuppressive drugs, particularly calcineurin inhibitor (CNI). We assumed that some patients selected for a "low immunological risk of rejection" could be eligible and benefit from a CNI weaning strategy. We designed a prospective, randomized, multicenter, double-blind placebo-controlled clinical study (Eudract: 2010-019574-33) to analyze the benefit-risk ratio of tacrolimus weaning on highly selected patients (≥4 years of transplantation, normal histology, stable graft function, no anti-HLA immunization). The primary endpoint was improvement of renal function. Fifty-two patients were scheduled in each treatment arm, placebo compared to the CNI maintenance arm. Only 10 patients were eligible and randomized. Five patients were assigned to the placebo arm and five were assigned to the tacrolimus maintenance arm. In the tacrolimus maintenance arm, all patients maintained stable graft function and no immunological events occurred. Contrastingly, in the placebo arm, all five patients had to reintroduce a full dose of tacrolimus since three of them presented an acute rejection episode (one humoral, one mixed, and one borderline) and two displayed anti-HLA antibodies without histological lesion (one donor-specific antibodies [DSA] and one non-DSA). Clearly, tacrolimus withdrawal must be avoided even in long-term highly selective stable kidney recipients.

Optimal threshold estimator of a prognostic marker by maximizing a time-dependent expected utility function for a patient-centered stratified medicine

Defining thresholds of prognostic markers is essential for stratified medicine. Such thresholds are mostly estimated from purely statistical measures regardless of patient preferences potentially leading to unacceptable medical decisions. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years are a widely used preferences-based measure of health outcomes. We develop a time-dependent Quality-Adjusted Life-Years-based expected utility function for censored data that should be maximized to estimate an optimal threshold. We performed a simulation study to compare estimated thresholds when using the proposed expected utility approach and purely statistical estimators. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology which was implemented in the R package ROCt ( www.divat.fr ). First, by reanalysing data of a randomized clinical trial comparing the efficacy of prednisone vs. placebo in patients with chronic liver cirrhosis, we demonstrate the utility of treating patients with a prothrombin level higher than 89%. Second, we reanalyze the data of an observational cohort of kidney transplant recipients: we conclude to the uselessness of the Kidney Transplant Failure Score to adapt the frequency of clinical visits. Applying such a patient-centered methodology may improve future transfer of novel prognostic scoring systems or markers in clinical practice.

Acclimatization of rats after ground transportation to a new animal facility

This study aimed to assess the time needed by rats, which had not been previously transported, to acclimatize to a new environment after 5 h of van transport, using physiological parameters as measures of acclimatization. Animal shipping boxes and transport van conditions were standardized to minimize stress factors that could be associated with transport. Heart rate (HR), body temperature and activity levels were measured in the rats before and after transport using previously implanted radio-telemetry transmitters. Body weight was also recorded. All parameters were changed significantly except for body temperature. Results suggest that rats take three days to acclimatize to a new environment, as measured by the physiological parameters of body weight, HR and activity.

Mortality Prediction after the First Year of Kidney Transplantation: An Observational Study on Two European Cohorts

After the first year post transplantation, prognostic mortality scores in kidney transplant recipients can be useful for personalizing medical management. We developed a new prognostic score based on 5 parameters and computable at 1-year post transplantation. The outcome was the time between the first anniversary of the transplantation and the patient’s death with a functioning graft. Afterwards, we appraised the prognostic capacities of this score by estimating time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves from two prospective and multicentric European cohorts: the DIVAT (Données Informatisées et VAlidées en Transplantation) cohort composed of patients transplanted between 2000 and 2012 in 6 French centers; and the STCS (Swiss Transplant Cohort Study) cohort composed of patients transplanted between 2008 and 2012 in 6 Swiss centers. We also compared the results with those of two existing scoring systems: one from Spain (Hernandez et al.) and one from the United States (the Recipient Risk Score, RRS, Baskin-Bey et al.). From the DIVAT validation cohort and for a prognostic time at 10 years, the new prognostic score (AUC = 0.78, 95%CI = [0.69, 0.85]) seemed to present significantly higher prognostic capacities than the scoring system proposed by Hernandez et al. (p = 0.04) and tended to perform better than the initial RRS (p = 0.10). By using the Swiss cohort, the RRS and the the new prognostic score had comparable prognostic capacities at 4 years (AUC = 0.77 and 0.76 respectively, p = 0.31). In addition to the current available scores related to the risk to return in dialysis, we recommend to further study the use of the score we propose or the RRS for a more efficient personalized follow-up of kidney transplant recipients.