Pharmacist-led multidisciplinary approach in preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation

Background/Introduction

Targets set by Public Health England (PHE) state that 90% of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are expected to receive anticoagulation by 2029. In 2019/2020, across three London boroughs serving a population of 770,000, the percentage of AF patients at high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2VASc>2) anticoagulated was below the target set by PHE. In addition, optimisation of risk factors can significantly reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and associated mortality in these patients.

Purpose

To provide specialist input from a cardiovascular pharmacist to prevent AF-related strokes through improvement of anticoagulation rates and optimisation of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with AF across three London boroughs over one year, as well as minimising bleed risk in patients on dual antithrombotic therapy.

Methods

A specialist cardiovascular pharmacist was commissioned to identify high-risk AF patients (CHA2DS2VASc>2) by working with primary care clinicians. Utilising “proactive care frameworks” created by UCLPartners and Clinical Effectiveness Group Queen Mary University of London, patients were stratified and prioritised for review. Patients not on anticoagulation were deemed to be at highest risk, requiring an urgent review to assess suitability for anticoagulation. A virtual multidisciplinary team (MDT) would review any complex patients and agree an action plan. Patients on dual antithrombotic therapy were also assessed to determine if antiplatelet therapy was indicated to minimise risk of major bleeding. All AF patients were reviewed for suitability of statin initiation to optimise cardiovascular risk prevention.

Results

At baseline, 86% (7581/8582) of AF patients with a CHA2DS2VASc>2 across the three boroughs were anticoagulated. 1001 patients were reviewed by a specialist pharmacist, with 84% (841/1001) of patients having a CHA2DS2VASc between 2–5, and 28% (280/1001) on antiplatelet monotherapy. Analysis at 12 months following intervention reported that 95% (7888/8280) of AF patients with a CHA2DS2VASc>2 were suitably anticoagulated, an improvement of 9%. 6% (61/1001) of patients were switched from antiplatelets and 25% (246/1001) were newly initiated on anticoagulation. 13% (130/1001) of patients required specialist MDT input to determine appropriateness for anticoagulation initiation. There was also a reduction in dual anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy from 429 to 252 patients (41% reduction). Lastly of those reviewed, 2609 patients received a recommendation to start a statin for either primary (n=1981) or secondary prevention (n=628).

Conclusion(s)

Provision of a specialist cardiovascular pharmacist supported a multidisciplinary workforce to significantly improve and optimise cardiovascular risk, and reduce the risk of stroke in this high-risk population for people with AF across all three boroughs. By extrapolating these results nationally, 3600 strokes could be averted over 18 months.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Prognostic value of FFRCT in patients with stable chest pain – a 3-year follow-up of the ADVANCE-DK registry

Introduction

The short-term safety of using coronary CT angiography (CTA) derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) to guide downstream testing after CTA is well documented. Whether the prognostic information provided by FFRCT can be extended to sustained follow-up and to patients with a high degree of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is unknown.

Purpose

To evaluate the association between FFRCT and clinical outcomes in new onset stable symptomatic patients with coronary stenosis up to 3 years after CTA index testing.

Methods

Multicenter 3-year follow-up study of 900 patients from the Assessing Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive FFRCT in Coronary Care (ADVANCE) registry at three Danish sites, the “ADVANCE-DK Registry”. All patients had at least one ≥30% coronary stenosis by CTA and underwent subsequent core laboratory FFRCT analysis by HeartFlow. The criterium for an abnormal FFRCT test result was an FFRCT value ≤0.80 (2 cm distal to stenosis). High CAC was defined as a CAC score ≥400. The primary endpoint (PE) was a composite of all-cause death and spontaneous myocardial infarction (MI). The secondary endpoint (SE) was a composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and spontaneous MI. Events were adjudicated by an independent clinical committee.

Results

Patient characteristics are given in Table 1. Coronary stenosis ≥50% was present in 750 (83%) patients. In total 36 patients suffered a PE (all-cause death, n=24; MI, n=12) and 22 an SE (CV death, n=10; MI, n=12). An abnormal vs a normal FFRCT test result was associated with an increased risk of the PE and of the SE both overall and in patients with high CAC; PE (all), 6.6% vs 2.1%, relative risk (RR): 3.1; 95% CI: 1.6–6.3, p<0.001, SE (all), 5.0% vs 0.6%, RR: 8.7; 95% CI: non assessable, p<0.001, PE (high CAC), 9.0% vs 2.2%, RR: 4.1; 85% CI: 1.4–11.8, p=0.001, and SE (high CAC), 6.6% vs 0.5%, RR: 12.0; 95% CI: non assessable, p=0.01, respectively, Figure 1. The observed increased risk in patients with an abnormal vs a normal FFRCT test result persisted after adjustment for degree of stenosis by CCTA (< / ≥50%) and amount of CAC (< / ≥400): PE, adjusted RR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.2–5.2, p=0.02, and SE, adjusted RR: 8.0; 95% CI: 2.1–30.2, p=0.002.

Conclusion

Patients with stable chest pain, stenosis by CTA and a normal FFRCT test result have a low risk of adverse outcomes during 3 years of follow-up. An abnormal FFRCT identifies patients at increased risk of death or spontaneous MI. These associations are consistent in patients with high levels of CAC.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

FFRCT and recurrent symptoms in patients with stable chest pain

Introduction

The major benefit of coronary revascularization when compared with optimal medical treatment (OMT) in patients with stable chest pain (CP) relates to improvement of symptoms and reduction of reinterventions. Non-invasive methods are warranted to discriminate between patients at low and high risk of recurrent CP for subsequent guidance of antianginal treatment (invasive or OMT).

Purpose

To evaluate the association between coronary CT angiography (CTA) derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT), recurrent CP and quality of life (QOL) in patients with new onset stable CP and stenosis by CTA.

Methods

Multicenter cohort 3-year follow-up sub-study of 769 patients from the Assessing Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive FFRCT in Coronary Care (ADVANCE) registry at three Danish sites, the “ADVANCE-DK Registry”. All patients had at least one ≥30% coronary stenosis by CTA and underwent subsequent core laboratory FFRCT analysis by HeartFlow. An abnormal FFRCT was defined as the lowest in vessel FFRCT value ≤0.80. Patients were classified according to completeness of revascularization by FFRCT: 1) completely revascularized (CR-FFRCT), all coronary arteries with an abnormal FFRCT test result revascularized; 2) incompletely revascularized (IR-FFRCT), ≥1 coronary artery with an abnormal FFRCT test result not revascularized. All patients completed the Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ-7), the EuroQol questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and graded (0–100) overall health using the EQ VAS scale at 3-year follow-up. Recurrent CP was defined as CP within the last 4 weeks prior to this follow-up.

Results

Patient characteristics are given in Table 1. At follow-up 23% patients reported recurrent CP. An abnormal vs a normal FFRCT increased the risk of recurrent CP, 27% vs 15%, RR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.31–2.52, p<0.001. Amongst patients with abnormal FFRCT, revascularization (+/−) was associated to a numerical, but not statistical significantly, reduced risk of recurrent CP, 23% vs 30%, RR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.56–1.03, p=0.07. IR-FFRCT vs CR-FFRCT had a higher risk for recurrent CP, 31% vs 13%, RR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.48–3.68, p<0.001, whilst no difference was observed for CR-FFRCT vs normal FFRCT, 13% vs 15%, RR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.54–1.54, p=0.74. IR-FFRCT vs CR-FFRCT or normal FFRCT, had lower SAQ-7, EQ-5D-5L and EQ-VAS scores, Table 1, all p<0.005. Scores for three selected SAQ-7 domains are shown in Figure 1. Use of antianginal medicine was higher in IR-FFRCT compared to CR-FFRCT and normal FFRCT, mean ± SD: 1.2±0.05 vs 1.0±0.04, p=0.02.

Conclusion

An abnormal FFRCT identifies patients with an increased risk of recurrent CP up to 3 years after index testing. Completeness of revascularization by FFRCT reclassifies patients with abnormal FFRCT into groups with low and high risk for recurrent CP and impaired QOL.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Evaluation of the benefit of rivaroxaban on VOYAGER PAD primary composite of limb, heart and brain outcomes using the global rank and win ratio methods

Background/Introduction

The VOYAGER PAD trial demonstrated that rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily added to background antiplatelet therapy reduced a composite of irreversible harm events of the heart limb and brain versus placebo in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD) after lower extremity revascularization. The primary analysis was performed as time to first event with equal weighting of components including fatal and non-fatal events.

Purpose

Traditional time to event analyses of composites generally assess outcomes with equal weights. Analyses evaluating outcomes using ranked or weighted methods may provide clinicians a mechanism to interpret results including different weighting and enable shared decision making with patients.

Methods

Exploratory analyses of the primary composite outcome were prespecified prior to trial completion/database lock. Two previously described approaches to evaluate composite outcomes by ranking or weighting were utilized. The first was the global rank method which includes ranking all components of the composite by order of clinical importance (Table 1) with a primary and alternative ranking prespecified. Each patient is assigned a rank with the worse rank for worse outcome and for patients with the same outcome, those occurring earlier assigned the worse rank. Van Elteren test for differences between groups was applied stratified by type of procedure and clopidogrel use consistent with the primary trial analysis. The second was the unmatched win ratio method according to Pocock's rule which ranked CV death higher than non-fatal events and then compared pairs of subjects, one from each treatment group for wins and losses for wins and losses as outlined in Table 1. Finkelstein and Schoenfeld statistics were utilized with confidence intervals provided from bootstrapping.

Results

A total of 6564 patients were randomized and all outcomes through the common study end date were counted. The global rank method using both the primary and alternative method yielded a statistically significant superior effect of rivaroxaban versus placebo (p-value for primary ranking 0.0158, p-value for alternative ranking 0.0155). When using the win-ratio approach, there were more wins for rivaroxaban (14.8%) than placebo (12.8%) with 72.4% of patients having no primary component events (Figure 1). The overall win ratio was 1.16 95% CI (1.03–1.30) in favor of rivaroxaban with p=0.0167.

Conclusion(s)

Rivaroxaban significantly reduces acute limb ischemia, amputation, MI, ischemic stroke or CV death in PAD after lower extremity revascularization. Exploratory analyses of this efficacy composite show consistent superiority either when considered as a ranked hierarchy of outcomes with CV death as the worst or whether considering a win-ratio approach ranking CV death as worse followed by non-fatal events. These data support the robustness of the primary trial results when considering ranking of the composite components.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Bayer

Completeness of revascularization by FFRCT and prognosis in stable chest pain

Introduction

Major randomized trials of patients with stable chest pain (CP) demonstrated no prognostic benefits of coronary revascularization over optimal medical treatment (OMT). However, in a recent large-scale study, completeness of revascularization was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause death and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI).

Purpose

To evaluate the association between completeness of revascularization relative to the result of coronary CT angiography (CTA) derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) and 3-year prognosis in patients with new onset stable CP and coronary stenosis.

Methods

Multicenter cohort 3-year follow-up sub-study of 900 patients from the Assessing Diagnostic Value of Non-invasive FFRCT in Coronary Care (ADVANCE) registry at three Danish sites, the “ADVANCE-DK Registry”. All patients had at least one ≥30% coronary stenosis by CTA and underwent subsequent core laboratory FFRCT analysis by HeartFlow. The FFRCT result was abnormal when ≤0.80 (2 cm distal to stenosis). Patients were classified according to completeness of revascularization by FFRCT: 1) completely revascularized (CR-FFRCT), all coronary arteries with an abnormal FFRCT test result revascularized; 2) incompletely revascularized (IR-FFRCT), ≥1 coronary artery with an abnormal FFRCT test result not revascularized. The primary endpoint (PE) was a composite of all-cause death and spontaneous MI. The secondary endpoint (SE) was a composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and spontaneous MI.

Results

Patient characteristics are given in Table 1. In total 36 (4.0%) patients suffered a PE (all-cause death, n=24; MI, n=12) and 22 (2.4%) an SE (CV death, n=10; MI, n=12). Overall, an abnormal vs a normal FFRCT test result was associated with an increased risk of both the PE, 6.6% vs 2.1%, relative risk (RR): 3.1; 95% CI: 1.6–6.3, p<0.001 and of the SE, 5.0% vs 0.6%, RR: 8.7; 95% CI: non assessable, p<0.001. In patients with abnormal FFRCT, revascularization vs no revascularization did not reduce the risk of the PE or the SE (data not shown). Patients with IR-FFRCT vs CR-FFRCT had a numerical, but not statistical significantly, increased risk of the PE, 8.6% vs 4.2%, RR: 2.14; 95% CI: 0.87–5.26, p=0.10), and an increased risk of the SE, 7.1% vs 2.4%, RR: 3.13; 95% CI: 1.02–9.63, p=0.04, Figure 1. In CR-FFRCT versus normal FFRCT no difference in the risk of the PE or the SE was observed, Figure 1. Univariate sensitivity analyses performed in the IR-FFRCT group did not reveal any differences in the risk of the PE or the SE after adjustment for neither statin therapy at follow-up (−/+), baseline risk variables (< / ≥3), amount of CAC (< / ≥400), degree of stenosis by CTA (< / ≥50%) nor referral to ICA (−/+).

Conclusion

In symptomatic patients with coronary stenosis by CTA, incomplete revascularization determined by FFRCT is associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes compared to complete revascularization.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

First Measurement of the Z→μ^{+}μ^{-} Angular Coefficients in the Forward Region of pp Collisions at sqrt[s]=13 TeV

The first study of the angular distribution of μ^{+}μ^{-} pairs produced in the forward rapidity region via the Drell-Yan reaction pp→γ^{*}/Z+X→ℓ^{+}ℓ^{-}+X is presented, using data collected with the LHCb detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.1  fb^{-1}. The coefficients of the five leading terms in the angular distribution are determined as a function of the dimuon transverse momentum and rapidity. The results are compared to various theoretical predictions of the Z-boson production mechanism and can also be used to probe transverse-momentum-dependent parton distributions within the proton.

Prevention and early treatment of the long-term physical effects of COVID-19 in adults: design of a randomised controlled trial of resistance exercise-CISCO-21

Background

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) infection causes persistent health problems such as breathlessness, chest pain and fatigue, and therapies for the prevention and early treatment of post-COVID-19 syndromes are needed. Accordingly, we are investigating the effect of a resistance exercise intervention on exercise capacity and health status following COVID-19 infection.

Methods

A two-arm randomised, controlled clinical trial including 220 adults with a diagnosis of COVID-19 in the preceding 6 months. Participants will be classified according to clinical presentation: Group A, not hospitalised due to COVID but persisting symptoms for at least 4 weeks leading to medical review; Group B, discharged after an admission for COVID and with persistent symptoms for at least 4 weeks; or Group C, convalescing in hospital after an admission for COVID.

Participants will be randomised to usual care or usual care plus a personalised and pragmatic resistance exercise intervention for 12 weeks. The primary outcome is the incremental shuttle walks test (ISWT) 3 months after randomisation with secondary outcomes including spirometry, grip strength, short performance physical battery (SPPB), frailty status, contacts with healthcare professionals, hospitalisation and questionnaires assessing health-related quality of life, physical activity, fatigue and dyspnoea.

Discussion

Ethical approval has been granted by the National Health Service (NHS) West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (REC) (reference: GN20CA537) and recruitment is ongoing. Trial findings will be disseminated through patient and public forums, scientific conferences and journals.

Trial registration

ClinicialTrials.gov NCT04900961. Prospectively registered on 25 May 2021

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06632-y.

Search for Subsolar-Mass Binaries in the First Half of Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run

We report on a search for compact binary coalescences where at least one binary component has a mass between 0.2  M_{⊙} and 1.0  M_{⊙} in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data collected between 1 April 2019 1500 UTC and 1 October 2019 1500 UTC. We extend our previous analyses in two main ways: we include data from the Virgo detector and we allow for more unequal mass systems, with mass ratio q≥0.1. We do not report any gravitational-wave candidates. The most significant trigger has a false alarm rate of 0.14  yr^{-1}. This implies an upper limit on the merger rate of subsolar binaries in the range [220-24200]  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}, depending on the chirp mass of the binary. We use this upper limit to derive astrophysical constraints on two phenomenological models that could produce subsolar-mass compact objects. One is an isotropic distribution of equal-mass primordial black holes. Using this model, we find that the fraction of dark matter in primordial black holes in the mass range 0.2  M_{⊙}<m_{PBH}<1.0  M_{⊙} is f_{PBH}≡Ω_{PBH}/Ω_{DM}≲6%. This improves existing constraints on primordial black hole abundance by a factor of ∼3. The other is a dissipative dark matter model, in which fermionic dark matter can collapse and form black holes. The upper limit on the fraction of dark matter black holes depends on the minimum mass of the black holes that can be formed: the most constraining result is obtained at M_{min}=1  M_{⊙}, where f_{DBH}≡Ω_{DBH}/Ω_{DM}≲0.003%. These are the first constraints placed on dissipative dark models by subsolar-mass analyses.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

The earliest known reported occurrence of dentigerous cyst in a six-month-old child

The earliest reported case of the occurrence of a dentigerous cyst is described; the cyst surrounded an unerupted permanent tooth bud in a 6-month-old infant. Most commonly these lesions present between the second and third decades of life. They rarely occur before 10 years of age and have not been documented prior to 1 year of age. In the case reported here, the treatment instituted was extraction of the adjacent deciduous tooth and enucleation of the cyst along with the permanent molar tooth bud. Clinicians should be aware of the potential for this lesion to occur across a wide range of ages and the importance of prompt diagnosis and treatment to prevent complications and reduce morbidity.

Pharmacist-led multidisciplinary approach in preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background/Introduction

In England, 90% of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are expected to receive anticoagulation as part of targets set by Public Health England by 2029. In 2019/2020, across three London boroughs serving a population of 770,000, the percentage of AF patients at high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2VASc&gt;2) anticoagulated was 87%, 83% and 84%. This placed two of the three localities in the bottom 10% compared to others in England. In addition, optimising cholesterol and lifestyle choices can significantly reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and associated mortality in these patients.

Purpose

To prevent AF-related strokes by improving anticoagulation rates and optimising cardiovascular risk factors in patients with AF in all general practices across three London boroughs over one year, and to minimise risk of bleeding in patients on concurrent anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy.

Methods

A specialist cardiovascular pharmacist was commissioned to systemically identify high-risk AF patients (CHA2DS2VASc&gt;2) by working with primary care clinicians, including up-skilling of primary care pharmacists. Through utilisation of ‘proactive care frameworks’ created by the Clinical Effectiveness Group Queen Mary University of London and UCL Partners, patients were able to be stratified and prioritised for review. AF patients not on anticoagulation or on antiplatelet monotherapy were deemed to be at highest risk, and these patients were reviewed to assess suitability for anticoagulation. Subsequently, patients on concurrent anticoagulation and antiplatelets were assessed to determine if dual antithrombotic prescribing was still indicated to minimise risk of major bleeding. Lastly, to optimise cardiovascular risk prevention, all AF patients were reviewed for suitability of statin initiation for primary or secondary prevention. A virtual multidisciplinary team was convened for complex patients, which included a cardiologist, haematologist, general practitioner and pharmacist to review and agree an action plan.

Results

An interim analysis at 9 months reported that 94% (6745/7145) of patients with a CHA2DS2VASc&gt;2 across the three boroughs were suitably anticoagulated, an improvement of 6% on the initial 88% (6585/7391). There was a reduction in concurrent anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy from 381 to 262 patients (31.2% reduction) following specialist review. Lastly 2285 patients were reviewed with a recommendation to start a statin for either primary (n=1783) or secondary prevention (n=502).

Conclusion(s)

Provision of a specialist cardiovascular pharmacist supported a multidisciplinary workforce with significant improvement in anticoagulation rates across all three boroughs, reducing the risk of stroke in this high-risk population. In addition, we were able to reduce the risk of bleeding in this cohort of patients by stopping inappropriate antiplatelet therapy, and reduced the risk of cardiovascular disease through statin initiation.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.