The impact of first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in society: comparative analysis to support control measures to cope with negative effects of future infectious diseases

The goal of this study is a comparative analysis of the first and second wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to assess the impact on health of people for designing effective policy responses to constrain negative effects of future pandemic waves of COVID-19 and similar infectious diseases in society. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Statistical analyses, based on daily data from February 2020 to February 2021, suggest that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a high negative impact on health of people over February-May 2020 period; after that, negative effects declined from June 2020 onwards. Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic from August 2020 to February 2021 had a growing incidence of confirmed cases also associated with variants of coronavirus, whereas admissions to Intensive Care Units and total deaths had lower levels compared to first wave of COVID-19. Lessons learned of this comparative analysis between first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be generalized in similar geo-economic areas to support effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain the negative impact on health of people of recurring waves of COVID-19 pandemic and similar infectious diseases in future.

Pandemic Prevention: Lessons from COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which appeared in late 2019, generating a pandemic crisis with high numbers of COVID-19-related infected individuals and deaths in manifold countries worldwide. Lessons learned from COVID-19 can be used to prevent pandemic threats by designing strategies to support different policy responses, not limited to the health system, directed to reduce the risks of the emergence of novel viral agents, the diffusion of infectious diseases and negative impact in society.

Effects of the spread of COVID-19 on public health of polluted cities: results of the first wave for explaining the dejà vu in the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic and epidemics of future vital agents

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is generating a high number of deaths worldwide. One of the current questions in the field of environmental science is to explain how air pollution can affect the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on public health. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy. Results suggest that the diffusion of COVID-19 in cities with high levels of air pollution is generating higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. In particular, results reveal that the number of infected people was higher in cities with more than 100 days per year exceeding limits set for PM₁₀ or ozone, cities located in hinterland zones (i.e. away from the coast), cities having a low average speed of wind and cities with a lower average temperature. In hinterland cities having a high level of air pollution, coupled with low wind speed, the average number of infected people in April 2020-during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic-is more than tripled compared to cities with low levels of air pollution. In addition, results show that more than 75% of infected individuals and about 81% of deaths of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy are in industrialized regions with high levels of air pollution. Although these vital results of the first wave of the COVID-19 from February to August 2020, policymakers have had a low organizational capacity to plan effective policy responses for crisis management to cope with COVID-19 pandemic that is generating recurring waves with again negative effects, déjà vu, on public health and of course economic systems.

Scientometric analysis of COVID-19 studies: how the velocity of science leads to discoveries and new technology.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-148447/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Scholars argue that the ‘‘science of science’’ studies have to investigate the critical role of exogenous events in the emergence of new research fields. The goal of this study is to analyze and explain the birth and growth of new research fields driven by exogenous event to science, such as COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) global pandemic crisis. This study here analyzes how the novel research field of COVID-19 emerges, in a comparative analysis with other scientific fields concerning respiratory illnesses (e.g., Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, COPD and Lung Cancer), to explain factors determining the unique dynamics of science that is generating scientific breakthroughs in a short period of time. The origin and evolution of the research field of COVID-19 reveal that has an acceleration of scientific production equal to a growth of 1.71% daily in 2020, laying the foundations for science advances and a likely paradigm shift in the treatment of infectious diseases with novel mRNA vaccines. Main results are generalized in properties that clarify the dynamics of science and explain the characteristics that generate the origin and evolution of new research fields driven by unforeseen crises with critical implications for technological and social change directed scientific progress of human societies.

How do low wind speeds and high levels of air pollution support the spread of COVID-19?

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is generating a high number of infected individuals and deaths. One of the current questions is how climatological factors and environmental pollution can affect the diffusion of COVID-19 in human society. This study endeavours to explain the relation between wind speed, air pollution and the diffusion of COVID-19 to provide insights to constrain and/or prevent future pandemics and epidemics. The statistical analysis here focuses on case study of Italy and reveals two main findings: 1) cities with high wind speed have lower numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals; 2) cities located in hinterland zones (mostly those bordering large urban conurbations) with little wind speed and frequently high levels of air pollution had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. Results here suggest that high concentrations of air pollutants, associated with low wind speeds, may promote a longer permanence of viral particles in polluted air of cities, thus favouring an indirect means of diffusion of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), in addition to the direct diffusion with human-to-human transmission dynamics.

An index to quantify environmental risk of exposure to future epidemics of the COVID-19 and similar viral agents: Theory and practice

In the presence of the novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and other new viral agents, one of the fundamental problems in science is the evaluation of environmental and social weaknesses of cities/regions to the exposure of infectious diseases for preventing and/or containing new COVID-19 outbreaks and the diffusion of other viral agents that generate a negative impact on public health and economy of countries. The current monitoring of transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is mainly based on reproduction number (R₀) and fatality rates. However, this approach is a real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics for mitigating the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Reproduction number does not provide information to cope with future epidemics or pandemics. The main goal of this study is to propose the Index c (as contagions) that quantifies, ex-ante, the environmental risk of exposure of cities/regions to future epidemics of the COVID-19 and similar vital agents. This Index c synthetizes environmental, demographic, climatological and health risk factors of cities/regions that indicate their exposure to infectious diseases. Index c has a range from 1 (environmental and social weakness of urban areas leading to high levels of exposure to infectious diseases) to 0 (environment that reduces the risk of exposure to infectious diseases in society). The statistical evidence here, applied on case study of Italy, seems in general to support the predictive capacity of the Index c as a particularly simple but superior indicator in detecting the global correlation between potential risk of exposure of cities/regions to infectious diseases and actual risk given by infected individuals and deaths of the COVID-19. The Index c can support a proactive environmental strategy to help policymakers to prevent future pandemics similar to the COVID-19.

National Lockdown to Cope with COVID-19 Pandemic: Effects (Contradictory) on Public Health and (Negative) on Economic System.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-115665/v1]

One of the policy responses to cope with effects of COVID-19 pandemic in society is the national lockdown applied by many countries worldwide. Literature lacks of studies that show whether the effects of this public policy on public health, environment and socioeconomic systems have been effective or not during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical analysis of this study focuses on some European countries that have applied different containment measures based on national lockdown with longer period (more than a month) and a shorter period (of max 15 days). The evidence shows that longer period of national lockdown by governments seem to generate contradictory effects on public health, whereas on economic growth induces a negative impact given by high contraction of real GDP growth %. This result here can be helpful to policymakers for new policy choices directed to design appropriate measures of containment based on a shorter temporal duration and applied on selected areas and places at risk, rather than general and uniform interventions of lockdown and reduction of mobility. This new perspective of public policy to cope with pandemic crisis of the COVID-19 and future epidemics of similar viral agents can balance the likely positive effects on public health without to deteriorate the structural indicators of economic system.

HOW IS THE IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH OF SECOND WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC COMPARED TO THE FIRST WAVE? CASE STUDY OF ITALY.. [DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.16.20232389]

The main goal of this study is to compare the effects on public health of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to first wave in society. The paper here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first European countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Methodology considers daily data from February to November 2020 of the ratio of confirmed cases/total swabs, fatality rate (deaths / confirmed cases) and ratio of individuals in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) / Confirmed cases. Results reveal that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a strong but declining impact on public health with the approaching of summer season and with the effects of containment measures, whereas second wave of the COVID-19 has a growing trend of confirmed cases with admission to ICUs and total deaths having a, to date, lower impact on public health compared to first wave. Although effects of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, policymakers have had an unrealistic optimist behavior that a new wave of COVID-19 could not hit their countries and, especially, a low organizational capacity to plan effective policy responses to cope with recurring COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This study can support vital information to design effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain current and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and similar epidemics in society.

The effects of the first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic on public health.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-110013/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

One of the current problems in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic crisis is to analyze the effects of the second wave on public health to design appropriate strategies to reduce negative effects in society. The study here analyzes first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy because is one of European countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Results reveal that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a high negative effect on public health from February to May 2020 that declined with the approaching of summer season and with the health policy of lockdown and quarantine; instead, second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, from October 2020, has increasing confirmed cases but admission to ICUs is, to date, below maximum capacity and total deaths have a lower level than first wave. This study can support best practice of crisis management to design effective health policies to constrain current and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and epidemics of similar viral agents.

THE IMPACT OF LOCKDOWN ON PUBLIC HEALTH DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LESSONS LEARNED FOR DESIGNING EFFECTIVE CONTAINMENT MEASURES TO COPE WITH SECOND WAVE.. [DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.22.20217695]

What is hardly known in the studies of the COVID-19 global pandemic crisis is the impact of general lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic both public health and economic system. The main goal of this study is a comparative analysis of some European countries with a longer and shorter period of national lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 from March to August 2020. Findings suggests that: a) countries with shorter period of lockdown have a variation of confirmed cases/population (%) higher than countries with longer period of lockdown; b) countries with shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with longer period of lockdown (12.70%), whereas variation of fatality rate from August to March 2020 suggests a higher reduction in countries with longer period of lockdown (−1.9% vs 0.72%). However, Independent Samples Test and the Mann-Whitney test reveal that the effectiveness of longer period of lockdown versus shorter one on public health is not significant. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic associated with longer period of lockdown has a higher negative impact on economic growth with consequential social issues in countries. Results of the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on public health and economies of some leading countries in Europe, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, can provide vital information to design effective containment strategies in future waves of this pandemic to minimize the negative effects in society.