Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt

We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.

Influence of Birth Cohort on Effectiveness of 2015-2016 Influenza Vaccine Against Medically Attended Illness Due to 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus in the United States

Background

The effectiveness of influenza vaccine during 2015-2016 was reduced in some age groups as compared to that in previous 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09 virus)-predominant seasons. We hypothesized that the age at first exposure to specific influenza A(H1N1) viruses could influence vaccine effectiveness (VE).

Methods

We estimated the effectiveness of influenza vaccine against polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated medically attended illness from the 2010-2011 season through the 2015-2016 season, according to patient birth cohort using data from the Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Birth cohorts were defined a priori on the basis of likely immunologic priming with groups of influenza A(H1N1) viruses that circulated during 1918-2015. VE was calculated as 100 × [1 - adjusted odds ratio] from logistic regression models comparing the odds of vaccination among influenza virus-positive versus influenza test-negative patients.

Results

A total of 2115 A(H1N1)pdm09 virus-positive and 14 696 influenza virus-negative patients aged ≥6 months were included. VE was 61% (95% confidence interval [CI], 56%-66%) against A(H1N1)pdm09-associated illness during the 2010-2011 through 2013-2014 seasons, compared with 47% (95% CI, 36%-56%) during 2015-2016. During 2015-2016, A(H1N1)pdm09-specific VE was 22% (95% CI, -7%-43%) among adults born during 1958-1979 versus 61% (95% CI, 54%-66%) for all other birth cohorts combined.

Conclusion

Findings suggest an association between reduced VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-related illness during 2015-2016 and early exposure to specific influenza A(H1N1) viruses.

Safety of repeated doses of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis vaccine in adults and adolescents

In light of waning immunity to pertussis following receipt of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine, maintaining protection may require repeated Tdap vaccination. We evaluated the safety of repeated doses of tetanus-containing vaccine in 68 915 nonpregnant adolescents and adults in the Vaccine Safety Datalink population who had received an initial dose of Tdap. Compared with 7521 subjects who received a subsequent dose of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria (Td) vaccine, the 61 394 subjects who received a subsequent dose of Tdap did not have significantly elevated risk of medical visits for seizure, cranial nerve disorders, limb swelling, pain in limb, cellulitis, paralytic syndromes, or encephalopathy/encephalitis/meningitis. These results suggest that repeated Tdap vaccination has acceptable safety relative to Tdap vaccination followed by Td vaccination.

Assessment of Tdap Vaccination Effectiveness in Adolescents in Integrated Health-Care Systems

PURPOSE

Despite high national vaccination coverage with tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccines among U.S. adolescents, rates of adolescent pertussis disease are increasing. We estimated the duration of protection after Tdap vaccination and the possible effects of the change from whole-cell to acellular childhood pertussis vaccines in the United States during the 1990s.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis among 11- to 18-year-olds enrolled in two integrated health-care delivery systems during 2005-2012. Cases met the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' confirmed or probable definition or a polymerase chain reaction-positive suspect definition. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) overall and by time since Tdap receipt. We stratified VE estimates by primary series pertussis vaccine received (based on birth year): mixed-vaccine cohort (1987-1997) and acellular vaccine cohort (1998-2001).

RESULTS

The overall Tdap VE was 57% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 42%-68%); the VE in the mixed-vaccine and acellular cohorts was 65% (95% CI: 44%-78%) and 52% (95% CI: 30%-68%), respectively. Tdap VE within <2 years post vaccination (69%, 95% CI: 54%-79%) was significantly different from VE ≥2 years post vaccination (34%, 95% CI: 1%-55%, p value < .01). VE was significantly higher <2 years post vaccination compared with ≥2 years post vaccination in both mixed-vaccine (87%, 95% CI: 58%-96%, and 52%, 95% CI: 13%-73%; p value = .04) and acellular cohorts (62%, 95% CI: 41%-76%, and 21%, 95% CI: -30% to 52%; p value = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Although Tdap vaccination remains the best pertussis prevention method for adolescents, protection wanes within 2 years regardless of the type of childhood primary vaccine. Vaccines with longer duration of protection could decrease pertussis burden.

Outpatient Antibiotic Prescribing for Acute Respiratory Infections During Influenza Seasons

IMPORTANCE

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the syndrome for which antibiotics are most commonly prescribed; viruses for which antibiotics are ineffective cause most ARIs.

OBJECTIVES

To characterize antibiotic prescribing among outpatients with ARI during influenza season and to identify targets for reducing inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for common ARI diagnoses, including among outpatients with laboratory-confirmed influenza.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cohort study enrolling outpatients aged 6 months or older with ARI evaluated at outpatient clinics associated with 5 US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network sites during the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 influenza seasons. All patients received influenza testing by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction for research purposes only. Antibiotic prescriptions, medical history, and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnosis codes were collected from medical and pharmacy records, as were group A streptococcal (GAS) testing results in a patient subset.

EXPOSURE

Visit for ARI, defined by a new cough of 7 days' duration or less.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Antibiotic prescription within 7 days of enrollment. Appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing was based on diagnosis codes, clinical information, and influenza and GAS testing results.

RESULTS

Of 14 987 patients with ARI (mean [SD] age, 32 [24] years; 8638 [58%] women; 11 892 [80%] white), 6136 (41%) were prescribed an antibiotic. Among these 6136 patients, 2522 (41%) had diagnoses for which antibiotics are not indicated; 2106 (84%) of these patients were diagnosed as having a viral upper respiratory tract infection or bronchitis (acute or not otherwise specified). Among the 3306 patients (22%) not diagnosed as having pneumonia and who had laboratory-confirmed influenza, 945 (29%) were prescribed an antibiotic, accounting for 17% of all antibiotic prescriptions among patients with nonpneumonia ARI. Among 1248 patients with pharyngitis, 1137 (91%) had GAS testing; 440 of the 1248 patients (35%) were prescribed antibiotics, among whom 168 (38%) had negative results on GAS testing. Of 1200 patients with sinusitis and no other indication for antibiotic treatment who received an antibiotic, 454 (38%) had symptoms for 3 days or less prior to the outpatient visit, suggesting acute viral sinusitis not requiring antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Antibiotic overuse remains widespread in the treatment of outpatient ARIs, including among patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza, although study sites may not be representative of other outpatient settings. Identified targets for improved outpatient antibiotic stewardship include eliminating antibiotic treatment of viral upper respiratory tract infections and bronchitis and improving adherence to prescribing guidelines for pharyngitis and sinusitis. Increased access to sensitive and timely virus diagnostic tests, particularly for influenza, may reduce unnecessary antibiotic use for these syndromes.

Influenza Antiviral Prescribing for Outpatients With an Acute Respiratory Illness and at High Risk for Influenza-Associated Complications During 5 Influenza Seasons-United States, 2011-2016

Background

Influenza causes millions of illnesses annually; certain groups are at higher risk for complications. Early antiviral treatment can reduce the risk of complications and is recommended for outpatients at increased risk. We describe antiviral prescribing among high-risk outpatients for 5 influenza seasons and explore factors that may influence prescribing.

Methods

We analyzed antiviral prescription and clinical data for high-risk outpatients aged ≥6 months with an acute respiratory illness (ARI) and enrolled in the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network during the 2011-2012 through 2015-2016 influenza seasons. We obtained clinical information from interviews and electronic medical records and tested all enrollees for influenza with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We calculated the number of patients with ARI that must be treated to treat 1 patient with influenza.

Results

Among high-risk outpatients with ARI who presented to care within 2 days of symptom onset (early), 15% (718/4861) were prescribed an antiviral medication, including 472 of 1292 (37%) of those with rRT-PCR-confirmed influenza. Forty percent of high-risk outpatients with influenza presented to care early. Earlier presentation was associated with antiviral treatment (odds ratio [OR], 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5-4.8), as was fever (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.7-3.8), although 25% of high-risk outpatients with influenza were afebrile. Empiric treatment of 4 high-risk outpatients with ARI was needed to treat 1 patient with influenza.

Conclusions

Influenza antiviral medications were infrequently prescribed for high-risk outpatients with ARI who would benefit most. Efforts to increase appropriate antiviral prescribing are needed to reduce influenza-associated complications.

Association Between Estimated Cumulative Vaccine Antigen Exposure Through the First 23 Months of Life and Non-Vaccine-Targeted Infections From 24 Through 47 Months of Age

IMPORTANCE

Some parents are concerned that multiple vaccines in early childhood could weaken their child's immune system. Biological data suggest that increased vaccine antigen exposure could increase the risk for infections not targeted by vaccines.

OBJECTIVE

To examine estimated cumulative vaccine antigen exposure through the first 23 months of life in children with and without non-vaccine-targeted infections from 24 through 47 months of age.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A nested case-control study was conducted in 6 US health care organizations participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Cases were identified by International Classification of Diseases codes for infectious diseases in the emergency department and inpatient medical settings and then validated by medical record review. Cases of non-vaccine-targeted infection were matched to controls by age, sex, health care organization site, and chronic disease status. Participants were children ages 24 through 47 months, born between January 1, 2003, and September 31, 2013, followed up until December 31, 2015.

EXPOSURES

Cumulative vaccine antigen exposure, estimated by summing the number of antigens in each vaccine dose received from birth through age 23 months.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Non-vaccine-targeted infections, including upper and lower respiratory infections and gastrointestinal infections, from 24 through 47 months of age, and the association between these infections and estimated cumulative vaccine exposure from birth through 23 months. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate matched odds ratios representing the odds of non-vaccine-targeted infections for every 30-unit increase in estimated cumulative number of antigens received.

RESULTS

Among the 944 patients (193 cases and 751 controls), the mean (SD) age was 32.5 (6.3) months, 422 (45%) were female, and 61 (7%) had a complex chronic condition. Through the first 23 months, the estimated mean (SD) cumulative vaccine antigen exposure was 240.6 (48.3) for cases and 242.9 (51.1) for controls. The between-group difference for estimated cumulative antigen exposure was -2.3 (95% CI, -10.1 to 5.4; P = .55). Among children with vs without non-vaccine-targeted infections from 24 through 47 months of age, the matched odds ratio for estimated cumulative antigen exposure through age 23 months was not significant (matched odds ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among children from 24 through 47 months of age with emergency department and inpatient visits for infectious diseases not targeted by vaccines, compared with children without such visits, there was no significant difference in estimated cumulative vaccine antigen exposure through the first 23 months of life.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in older adults compared with younger adults over five seasons

BACKGROUND

There have been inconsistent reports of decreased vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza viruses among older adults (aged ≥ 65 years) compared with younger adults in the United States. A direct comparison of VE over multiple seasons is needed to assess the consistency of these observations.

METHODS

We performed a pooled analysis of VE over 5 seasons among adults aged ≥ 18 years who were systematically enrolled in the U.S. Flu VE Network. Outpatients with medically-attended acute respiratory illness (cough with illness onset ≤ 7 days prior to enrollment) were tested for influenza by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. We compared differences in VE and vaccine failures among older adult age group (65-74, ≥75, and ≥ 65 years) to adults aged 18-49 years by influenza type and subtype using interaction terms to test for statistical significance and stratified by prior season vaccination status.

RESULTS

Analysis included 20,022 adults aged ≥ 18 years enrolled during the 2011-12 through 2015-16 influenza seasons; 4,785 (24%) tested positive for influenza. VE among patients aged ≥ 65 years was not significantly lower than VE among patients aged 18-49 years against any subtype with no significant interaction of age and vaccination. VE against A(H3N2) viruses was 14% (95% confidence interval [CI] -14% to 36%) for adults ≥ 65 years and 21% (CI 9-32%) for adults 18-49 years. VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 49% (95% CI 22-66%) for adults ≥ 65 years and 48% (95% CI 41-54%) for adults 18-49 years and against B viruses was 62% (95% CI 44-74%) for adults ≥ 65 years and 55% (95% CI 45-63%) for adults 18-49 years. There was no significant interaction of age and vaccination for separate strata of prior vaccination status.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 5 seasons, influenza vaccination provided similar levels of protection among older and younger adults, with lower levels of protection against influenza A(H3N2) in all ages.

Estimated rates of influenza-associated outpatient visits during 2001-2010 in 6 US integrated healthcare delivery organizations

Background

Population‐based estimates of influenza‐associated outpatient visits including both pandemic and interpandemic seasons are uncommon. Comparisons of such estimates with laboratory‐confirmed rates of outpatient influenza are rare.

Objective

To estimate influenza‐associated outpatient visits in 6 US integrated healthcare delivery organizations enrolling ~7.7 million persons.

Methods

Using negative binomial regression methods, we modeled rates of influenza‐associated visits with ICD‐9‐CM‐coded pneumonia or acute respiratory outpatient visits during 2001‐10. These estimated counts were added to visits coded specifically for influenza to derive estimated rates. We compared these rates with those observed in 2 contemporaneous studies recording RT‐PCR‐confirmed influenza outpatient visits.

Results

Outpatient rates estimated with pneumonia visits were 39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 30‐70) and 203 (95% CI, 180‐240) per 10 000 person‐years, respectively, for interpandemic and pandemic seasons. Corresponding rates estimated with respiratory visits were 185 (95% CI, 161‐255) and 542 (95% CI, 441‐823) per 10 000 person‐years. During the pandemic, children aged 2‐17 years had the largest increase in rates (when estimated with pneumonia visits, from 64 [95% CI, 50‐121] to 381 [95% CI, 366‐481]). Rates estimated with pneumonia visits were consistent with rates of RT‐PCR‐confirmed influenza visits during 4 of 5 seasons in 1 comparison study. In another, rates estimated with pneumonia visits during the pandemic for children and adults were consistent in timing, peak, and magnitude.

Conclusions

Estimated rates of influenza‐associated outpatient visits were higher in children than adults during pre‐pandemic and pandemic seasons. Rates estimated with pneumonia visits plus influenza‐coded visits were similar to rates from studies using RT‐PCR‐confirmed influenza.

The Equity Impact Vaccines May Have On Averting Deaths And Medical Impoverishment In Developing Countries

With social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs' total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention.

Burden of medically attended influenza infection and cases averted by vaccination - United States, 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

In addition to preventing hospitalizations and deaths due to influenza, influenza vaccination programs can reduce the burden of outpatient visits for influenza. We estimated the incidence of medically-attended influenza at three geographically diverse sites in the United States, and the cases averted by vaccination, for the 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons.

METHODS

We defined surveillance populations at three sites from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Among these populations, we identified outpatient visits laboratory-confirmed influenza via active surveillance, and identified all outpatient visits for acute respiratory illness from healthcare databases. We extrapolated the total number of outpatient visits for influenza from the proportion of surveillance visits with a positive influenza test. We combined estimates of incidence, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness to estimate outpatient visits averted by vaccination.

RESULTS

Across the three sites and seasons, incidence of medically attended influenza ranged from 14 to 54 per 1000 population. Incidence was highest in children aged 6 months to 9 years (33 to 70 per 1000) and lowest in adults aged 18-49 years (21 to 27 per 1000). Cases averted ranged from 9 per 1000 vaccinees (Washington, 2014/15) to 28 per 1000 (Wisconsin, 2013/14).

DISCUSSION

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause a considerable burden of outpatient medical visits. The United States influenza vaccination program has caused meaningful reductions in outpatient visits for influenza, even in years when the vaccine is not well-matched to the dominant circulating influenza strain.

Assessing Potential Confounding and Misclassification Bias When Studying the Safety of the Childhood Immunization Schedule

OBJECTIVES

Some parents are concerned the childhood immunization schedule could increase risk for allergic disorders, including asthma. To inform future safety studies of this speculated association, a parent survey was conducted to examine the risk of misclassification of vaccination status in electronic health record data, and to assess the potential for confounding if asthma risk factors varied by vaccination status.

METHODS

A survey was conducted among parents of children 19 to 35 months old at 6 medical organizations within the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Parents of children in 4 vaccination groups were surveyed: 1) no vaccines by 12 months of age and a diagnosis of parental vaccine refusal; 2) consistent vaccine limiting (≤2 vaccines per visit); 3) not consistently vaccine limiting but otherwise undervaccinated with a vaccine refusal diagnosis; and 4) fully vaccinated with no delays and no vaccine refusal. Parents were surveyed about their child's vaccination status and whether asthma risk factors existed.

RESULTS

Among a survey sample of 2043 parents, 1209 responded (59.2%). For receiving no vaccines, the observed agreement between parent report and electronic health record data was 94.0% (κ = 0.79); for receiving all vaccines with no delays, the observed agreement was 87.3% (κ = 0.73). Although most asthma risk factors (allergic rhinitis, eczema, food allergies, family asthma history) reported by parents did not differ significantly between children in the vaccination groups studied, several factors (aeroallergen sensitivity, breastfeeding) differed significantly between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement and control of disease risk factors should be carefully considered in observational studies of the safety of the immunization schedule.

Correction: Identifying Optimal Vaccination Strategies for Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis Conjugate Vaccine in the African Meningitis Belt

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063605.].

The safety of live attenuated influenza vaccine in children and adolescents 2 through 17 years of age: A Vaccine Safety Datalink study

PURPOSE

To evaluate the safety of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in children 2 through 17 years of age.

METHODS

The study was conducted in 6 large integrated health care organizations participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). Trivalent LAIV safety was assessed in children who received LAIV between September 1, 2003 and March 31, 2013. Eighteen pre-specified adverse event groups were studied, including allergic, autoimmune, neurologic, respiratory, and infectious conditions. Incident rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for each adverse event, using self-controlled case series analyses. For adverse events with a statistically significant increase in risk, or an IRR > 2.0 regardless of statistical significance, manual medical record review was performed to confirm case status.

RESULTS

During the study period, 396 173 children received 590 018 doses of LAIV. For 13 adverse event groups, there was no significant increased risk of adverse events following LAIV. Five adverse event groups (anaphylaxis, syncope, Stevens-Johnson syndrome, adverse effect of drug, and respiratory failure) met criteria for manual medical record review. After review to confirm cases, 2 adverse event groups remained significantly associated with LAIV: anaphylaxis and syncope. One confirmed case of anaphylaxis was observed following LAIV, a rate of 1.7 per million LAIV doses. Five confirmed cases of syncope were observed, a rate of 8.5 per million doses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a study of trivalent LAIV safety in a large cohort of children, few serious adverse events were detected. Anaphylaxis and syncope occurred following LAIV, although rarely. These data provide reassurance regarding continued LAIV use.

Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms

Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the United States during the 2015-2016 Season

BACKGROUND

The A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain used in the live attenuated influenza vaccine was changed for the 2015-2016 influenza season because of its lack of effectiveness in young children in 2013-2014. The Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network evaluated the effect of this change as part of its estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness in 2015-2016.

METHODS

We enrolled patients 6 months of age or older who presented with acute respiratory illness at ambulatory care clinics in geographically diverse U.S. sites. Using a test-negative design, we estimated vaccine effectiveness as (1-OR)×100, in which OR is the odds ratio for testing positive for influenza virus among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants. Separate estimates were calculated for the inactivated vaccines and the live attenuated vaccine.

RESULTS

Among 6879 eligible participants, 1309 (19%) tested positive for influenza virus, predominantly for A(H1N1)pdm09 (11%) and influenza B (7%). The effectiveness of the influenza vaccine against any influenza illness was 48% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41 to 55; P<0.001). Among children 2 to 17 years of age, the inactivated influenza vaccine was 60% effective (95% CI, 47 to 70; P<0.001), and the live attenuated vaccine was not observed to be effective (vaccine effectiveness, 5%; 95% CI, -47 to 39; P=0.80). Vaccine effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09 among children was 63% (95% CI, 45 to 75; P<0.001) for the inactivated vaccine, as compared with -19% (95% CI, -113 to 33; P=0.55) for the live attenuated vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines reduced the risk of influenza illness in 2015-2016. However, the live attenuated vaccine was found to be ineffective among children in a year with substantial inactivated vaccine effectiveness. Because the 2016-2017 A(H1N1)pdm09 strain used in the live attenuated vaccine was unchanged from 2015-2016, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices made an interim recommendation not to use the live attenuated influenza vaccine for the 2016-2017 influenza season. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.).

First Trimester Influenza Vaccination and Risks for Major Structural Birth Defects in Offspring

OBJECTIVE

To examine risks for major structural birth defects in infants after first trimester inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) exposures.

STUDY DESIGN

In this observational study, we used electronic health data from 7 Vaccine Safety Datalink sites to examine risks for selected major structural defects in infants after maternal IIV exposure. Vaccine exposures for women with continuous insurance enrollment through pregnancy who delivered singleton live births between 2004 and 2013 were identified from standardized files. Infants with continuous insurance enrollment were followed to 1 year of age. We excluded mother-infant pairs with other exposures that potentially increased their background risk for birth defects. Selected cardiac, orofacial or respiratory, neurologic, ophthalmologic or otologic, gastrointestinal, genitourinary and muscular or limb defects were identified from diagnostic codes in infant medical records using validated algorithms. Propensity score adjusted generalized estimating equations were used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs).

RESULTS

We identified 52 856 infants with maternal first trimester IIV exposure and 373 088 infants whose mothers were unexposed to IIV during first trimester. Prevalence (per 100 live births) for selected major structural birth defects was 1.6 among first trimester IIV exposed versus 1.5 among unexposed mothers. The adjusted PR was 1.02 (95% CI 0.94-1.10). Organ system-specific PRs were similar to the overall PR.

CONCLUSION

First trimester maternal IIV exposure was not associated with an increased risk for selected major structural birth defects in this large cohort of singleton live births.

Predicting 2-Year Risk of Developing Pneumonia in Older Adults without Dementia

OBJECTIVES

To develop three prognostic indices of varying degree of required detail for 2-year pneumonia risk in older adults.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Group Health (GH), an integrated healthcare delivery system.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling dementia-free individuals aged 65 and older who had been GH members for at least 2 years before start of follow-up and were enrolled in the Adult Changes in Thought study (N = 3,375; development cohort, n = 2,250; validation cohort, n = 1,125.

MEASUREMENTS

Potential pneumonia risk factors were identified from questionnaire data and interviewer assessments of functional status, medical history, smoking and alcohol use, cognitive function, personal care, and problem solving. Risk factors were also identified based on physical measures such as grip strength and gait speed and administrative database information on comorbid illnesses, laboratory tests, and prescriptions dispensed. Incident community-acquired pneumonia was defined presumptively from administrative data and validated using medical record review.

RESULTS

Participants (59% female) contributed 12,998 visits at which risk factors were assessed; 642 pneumonia events were observed during follow-up. Age, sex, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, body mass index, and use of inhaled or oral corticosteroids were critical predictors in all prognostic indices. A risk score based on these seven variables, information on which is commonly available in electronic medical records (EMRs), had equal or better performance (c-index = 0.69 in the validation cohort) than scores including more-detailed data such as functional status.

CONCLUSION

Data commonly available in EMRs can stratify older adults into groups with varying subsequent 2-year pneumonia risk.

Maternal Tdap vaccination and risk of infant morbidity

INTRODUCTION

An increased risk of diagnosed chorioamnionitis in women vaccinated with Tdap during pregnancy was previously detected at two Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) sites. The clinical significance of this finding related to infant outcomes remains uncertain.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of singleton live births born to women who were continuously insured from 6months prior to their last menstrual period through 6weeks postpartum, with ≥1 outpatient visit during pregnancy from January 1, 2010 to November 15, 2013 at seven integrated United States health care systems part of the VSD. We re-evaluated the association between maternal Tdap and chorioamnionitis and evaluated whether specific infant morbidities differ among infants born to mothers who did and did not receive Tdap during pregnancy. We focused on 2 Tdap exposure windows: the recommended 27-36weeks gestation or anytime during pregnancy. We identified inpatient diagnostic codes for transient tachypnea of the newborn (TTN), neonatal sepsis, neonatal pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), and newborn convulsions associated with an infant's first hospitalization. A generalized linear model with Poisson distribution and log-link was used to estimate propensity score adjusted rate ratios (ARR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

The analyses included 197,564 pregnancies. Chorioamnionitis was recorded in 6.4% of women who received Tdap vaccination any time during pregnancy and 5.2% of women who did not (ARR [95% CI]: 1.23 [1.17, 1.28]). Compared with unvaccinated women, there were no significant increased risks (ARR [95% CI]) for TTN (1.04 [0.98, 1.11]), neonatal sepsis (1.06 [0.91, 1.23]), neonatal pneumonia (0.94 [0.72, 1.22]), RDS (0.91 [0.66, 1.26]), or newborn convulsions (1.16 [0.87, 1.53]) in infants born to Tdap-vaccinated women.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Despite an observed association between maternal Tdap vaccination and maternal chorioamnionitis, we did not find increased risk for clinically significant infant outcomes associated with maternal chorioamnionitis.