Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25-29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.

Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change

We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.

The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change

Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Prospective analysis between the therapy of immunosuppressive medication and allogeneic microchimerism after liver transplantation

After liver transplantation, migration of donor-derived hematopoietic cells to recipient can be detected in peripheral blood. This state is termed microchimerism. The aim of this study was to investigate prospectively the presence of allogeneic microchimerism, the occurrence of acute cellular rejection and the level of immunosuppression in transplanted patients. Microchimerism occurrence between 10 days and 12 months after liver transplantation was analyzed in 47 patients aged between 15 and 65 by a two-stage nested PCR/SSP technique to detect donor MHC HLA-DR gene specifically. A pre-transplant blood sample was collected from each patient to serve as individual negative control. Microchimerism was demonstrated in 32 (68%) of the 47 patients; of these, only 10 patients (31.2%) presented rejection. Early microchimerism was observed in 25 patients (78.12%) and late microchimerism in 7 patients (21.8%). Among the patients with microchimerism, 14 were given CyA and 18 were given FK506. In the group without microchimerism, 12 patients were given CyA and 03 were given FK506. There was a significant association between the presence of microchimerism and the absence of rejection (p=0.02) and also between microchimerism and the type of immunosuppression used. Our data indicate that microchimerism and probably differentiation of donor-derived leukocytes can have relevant immunologic effects both in terms of sensitization of recipient and in terms of immunomodulation toward tolerance induction.

Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change

Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth

Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present]), surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP). The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses—climatic and anthropogenic—has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth–human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

What caused the woolly mammoth's extinction? Climate warming in the Holocene might have driven the extinction of this cold-adapted species, yet the species had survived previous warming periods, suggesting that the more-plausible cause was human expansion. Testing these competing hypotheses has been hampered by the difficulty in generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the mammoth's contraction and the climatic and/or human-induced drivers of extinction. In this study, we combined paleo-climate simulations, climate envelope models (which describe the climate associated with the known distribution of a species—its envelope—and estimate that envelope's position under different climate change scenarios), and a population model that includes an explicit treatment of woolly mammoth–human interactions to measure the extent to which climate changes, increased human pressures, or a combination of both factors might have been responsible. Results show a dramatic decline in suitable climate conditions for the mammoth between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, with hospitable areas in the mid-Holocene being restricted mainly to Arctic Siberia, where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. The population model results also support the view that the collapse of the climatically suitable area caused a significant drop in mammoth population size, making the animals more vulnerable to increasing hunting pressure from expanding human populations. The coincidence of the collapse of climatically suitable areas and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene are most likely to have been the “coup de grâce,” which set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

Climate models together with population models provide quantitative evidence that the combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures can explain the extinction of the woolly mammoths.

Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century

Mediterranean mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, glaciers, run-off processes, and water availability). Here, we provide an assessment of temperature, precipitation, and spring precipitation changes in Mediterranean mountains under different emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General Circulation Models for two periods: 2055 (2040-2069 period) and 2085 (2070-2099). Finally, the future climate trends projected for Mediterranean mountains are compared with those trends projected for non-Mediterranean European mountain ranges. The range of projected warming varies between +1.4 degrees C and 5.1 degrees C for 2055 (+1.6 degrees C and +8.3 degrees C for 2085). Climate models also project a reduction of precipitation, mainly during spring (-17% under Alfi and -4.8% under B1 for 2085). On the contrary, non-Mediterranean European mountains will not experience a reduction of annual and spring precipitation. Implications of predicted climate change for both human and physical features are coupled in an integrated framework to gain a broad perspective on future trends and their consequences.

Correction for Willis et al. , How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

Correction for ‘How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies’ by Katherine J. Willis, Miguel B. Araújo, Keith D. Bennett, Blanca Figueroa-Rangel, Cynthia A. Froyd and Norman Myers (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 362 , 175–186. (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2006.1977 )).

The dates of the textual citations and the entries in the reference list for the following references should have been 2007 but were incorrectly given as 2006. The correct forms of these references are given below.

The effectiveness of Iberian protected areas in conserving terrestrial biodiversity

The Iberian Peninsula harbors about 50% of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species and more than 30% of European endemic species. Despite the global recognition of its importance, the selection of protected areas has been ad hoc and the effectiveness of such choices has rarely been assessed. We compiled the most comprehensive distributional data set of Iberian terrestrial plant and vertebrate species available to date and used it to assess the degree of species representation within existing protected areas. Existing protected areas in Spain and Portugal reasonably represented the plant and animal species we considered (73-98%). Nevertheless, species of some groups (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and gymnosperms) did not accumulate in protected areas at a rate higher than expected by chance (p > 0.05). We determined that to conserve all vertebrate and plant species in the Iberian Peninsula, at least 36 additional areas are needed. Selection of additional areas for conservation would be facilitated if such areas coincided with sites of community importance (SCI) designated under the European Commission Habitats Directive. Additional areas required for full representation of the selected plant and animal species all coincide with SCI in Spain. Nevertheless, the degree of coincidence varies between 0.3% and 74.6%, and there is a possibility that important areas for conservation occur outside the SCI. Our results support the view that current SCI can be used for prioritization of areas for conservation, but a systematic reevaluation of conservation priorities in Spain and Portugal would be necessary to ensure that effective conservation of one of European's most important biodiversity regions is achieved.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation 'hotspots', and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation 'hotspots', and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

Ensemble forecasting of species distributions

Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

Molecular Mechanisms Associated With Donor-Specific Microchimerism in Peripheral Blood of Brazilian Patients After Liver Transplantation

A large number of studies in liver transplantation have demonstrated allogeneic microchimerism. The clinical and immunologic implications of this finding remain inconclusive, just as the influence of HLA mismatch and donor alloreactivity also are controversial. The present study analyzed the presence of allogeneic microchimerism in liver transplant recipients in relation to donor leukocyte kinetics and rejection episodes. The study was extended to determining the influence of immunogenetic factors in patients after liver transplantation. The presence of allogeneic microchimerism was analyzed on peripheral blood of 50 recipients. DNA extracted from the samples was subjected to typing for HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 alleles by polymerase chain reactions using sequence-specific primers (PCR/SSP). Microchimerism was identified by nested PCR/SSP. Microchimerism was detected in 72% of patients. There was significant effect of microchimerism on rejection episodes (P=.002), while HLA mismatches did not show significance for one or two mismatches (P=.98). Allogeneic microchimerism detected in the majority of liver transplant patients was observed to be significantly associated with rejection episodes.

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximately 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.

Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Thomas et al. model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species-area relationship to estimate that 15-37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.

Development of donor-specific microchimerism in liver transplant recipient with HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 mismatch related to rejection episodes

Migration of donor-derived cells to recipient tissues after liver transplantation has been suggested as a mechanism to induce and maintain allograft tolerance, although important issues remain including acute rejection posttransplantation mortality, and complications related to immunosuppressive therapy. We therefore examined the relation of rejection to chimerism based upon recipient and donor mismatch of HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 alleles. Laboratory analysis of peripheral blood was performed before and 10 days to 16 months after liver transplantation in 32 recipients, using ganglion or spleen cell samples of respective donors. DNA was extracted for HLA-DRB1 and DQB1 allele typing using polymerase chain reactions with sequence-specific primers (PCR-SSP). Microchimerism was analyzed through nested PCR. Our results confirmed that patients with one or two mismatched HLA-DRB1 and-DQB1 alleles showed microchimerism and no rejection (P <.05). Microchimerism was present in 71.88% of the patients, and a significant association of rejection P <.05 was found when microchimerism was correlated to graft rejection. These results suggest that the presence of microchimerism may be associated with acceptance, tolerance and survival of the allograft.