NSAIDs and scavenging birds: potential impacts beyond Asia's critically endangered vultures

Veterinary treatment of livestock with diclofenac, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), has caused catastrophic declines of Gyps vultures in Asia. This has highlighted a lack of knowledge on the potential impacts of NSAIDs on scavenging birds. Surveys of veterinarians and zoos document the outcomes of the treatment of over 870 scavenging birds from 79 species. As well as diclofenac, carprofen and flunixin were associated with mortality, with deaths observed in 13 and 30% of cases, respectively. Mortality was also found following treatment with ibuprofen and phenylbutazone. NSAID toxicity was reported for raptors, storks, cranes and owls, suggesting that the potential conservation impact of NSAIDs may extend beyond Gyps vultures and could be significant for New World vultures. In contrast, there were no reported mortalities for the NSAID meloxicam, which was administered to over 700 birds from 60 species. The relative safety of meloxicam supports other studies indicating the suitability of this NSAID to replace diclofenac in Asia.

Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 microg kg-1 bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high.

Toxicity of diclofenac to Gyps vultures

Three endemic vulture species Gyps bengalensis, Gyps indicus and Gyps tenuirostris are critically endangered following dramatic declines in South Asia resulting from exposure to diclofenac, a veterinary drug present in the livestock carcasses that they scavenge. Diclofenac is widely used globally and could present a risk to Gyps species from other regions. In this study, we test the toxicity of diclofenac to a Eurasian (Gyps fulvus) and an African (Gyps africanus) species, neither of which is threatened. A dose of 0.8 mg kg(-1) of diclofenac was highly toxic to both species, indicating that they are at least as sensitive to diclofenac as G. bengalensis, for which we estimate an LD50 of 0.1-0.2 mg kg(-1). We suggest that diclofenac is likely to be toxic to all eight Gyps species, and that G. africanus, which is phylogenetically close to G. bengalensis, would be a suitable surrogate for the safety testing of alternative drugs to diclofenac.

Census error and the detection of density dependence

1. Studies aiming to identify the prevalence and nature of density dependence in ecological populations have often used statistical analysis of ecological time-series of population counts. Such time-series are also being used increasingly to parameterize models that may be used in population management. 2. If time-series contain measurement errors, tests that rely on detecting a negative relationship between log population change and population size are biased and prone to spuriously detecting density dependence (Type I error). This is because the measurement error in density for a given year appears in the corresponding change in population density, with equal magnitude but opposite sign. 3. This effect introduces bias that may invalidate comparisons of ecological data with density-independent time-series. Unless census error can be accounted for, time-series may appear to show strongly density-dependent dynamics, even though the density-dependent signal may in reality be weak or absent. 4. We distinguish two forms of census error, both of which have serious consequences for detecting density dependence. 5. First, estimates of population density are based rarely on exact counts, but on samples. Hence there exists sampling error, with the level of error depending on the method employed and the number of replicates on which the population estimate is based. 6. Secondly, the group of organisms measured is often not a truly self-contained population, but part of a wider ecological population, defined in terms of location or behaviour. Consequently, the subpopulation studied may effectively be a sample of the population and spurious density dependence may be detected in the dynamics of a single subpopulation. In this case, density dependence is detected erroneously, even if numbers within the subpopulation are censused without sampling error. 7. In order to illustrate how process variation and measurement error may be distinguished we review data sets (counts of numbers of birds by single observers) for which both census error and long-term variance in population density can be estimated. 8. Tests for density dependence need to obviate the problem that measured population sizes are typically estimates rather than exact counts. It is possible that in some cases it may be possible to test for density dependence in the presence of unknown levels of census error, for example by uncovering nonlinearities in the density response. However, it seems likely that these may lack power compared with analyses that are able to explicitly include census error and we review some recently developed methods.

Patterns of nucleotide misincorporations during enzymatic amplification and direct large-scale sequencing of ancient DNA

Whereas evolutionary inferences derived from present-day DNA sequences are by necessity indirect, ancient DNA sequences provide a direct view of past genetic variants. However, base lesions that accumulate in DNA over time may cause nucleotide misincorporations when ancient DNA sequences are replicated. By repeated amplifications of mitochondrial DNA sequences from a large number of ancient wolf remains, we show that C/G-to-T/A transitions are the predominant type of such misincorporations. Using a massively parallel sequencing method that allows large numbers of single DNA strands to be sequenced, we show that modifications of C, as well as to a lesser extent of G, residues cause such misincorporations. Experiments where oligonucleotides containing modified bases are used as templates in amplification reactions suggest that both of these types of misincorporations can be caused by deamination of the template bases. New DNA sequencing methods in conjunction with knowledge of misincorporation processes have now, in principle, opened the way for the determination of complete genomes from organisms that became extinct during and after the last glaciation.

Removing the threat of diclofenac to critically endangered Asian vultures

Veterinary use of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) drug diclofenac in South Asia has resulted in the collapse of populations of three vulture species of the genus Gyps to the most severe category of global extinction risk. Vultures are exposed to diclofenac when scavenging on livestock treated with the drug shortly before death. Diclofenac causes kidney damage, increased serum uric acid concentrations, visceral gout, and death. Concern about this issue led the Indian Government to announce its intention to ban the veterinary use of diclofenac by September 2005. Implementation of a ban is still in progress late in 2005, and to facilitate this we sought potential alternative NSAIDs by obtaining information from captive bird collections worldwide. We found that the NSAID meloxicam had been administered to 35 captive Gyps vultures with no apparent ill effects. We then undertook a phased programme of safety testing of meloxicam on the African white-backed vulture Gyps africanus, which we had previously established to be as susceptible to diclofenac poisoning as the endangered Asian Gyps vultures. We estimated the likely maximum level of exposure (MLE) of wild vultures and dosed birds by gavage (oral administration) with increasing quantities of the drug until the likely MLE was exceeded in a sample of 40 G. africanus. Subsequently, six G. africanus were fed tissues from cattle which had been treated with a higher than standard veterinary course of meloxicam prior to death. In the final phase, ten Asian vultures of two of the endangered species (Gyps bengalensis, Gyps indicus) were dosed with meloxicam by gavage; five of them at more than the likely MLE dosage. All meloxicam-treated birds survived all treatments, and none suffered any obvious clinical effects. Serum uric acid concentrations remained within the normal limits throughout, and were significantly lower than those from birds treated with diclofenac in other studies. We conclude that meloxicam is of low toxicity to Gyps vultures and that its use in place of diclofenac would reduce vulture mortality substantially in the Indian subcontinent. Meloxicam is already available for veterinary use in India.

The transcriptional landscape of the mammalian genome

This study describes comprehensive polling of transcription start and termination sites and analysis of previously unidentified full-length complementary DNAs derived from the mouse genome. We identify the 5' and 3' boundaries of 181,047 transcripts with extensive variation in transcripts arising from alternative promoter usage, splicing, and polyadenylation. There are 16,247 new mouse protein-coding transcripts, including 5154 encoding previously unidentified proteins. Genomic mapping of the transcriptome reveals transcriptional forests, with overlapping transcription on both strands, separated by deserts in which few transcripts are observed. The data provide a comprehensive platform for the comparative analysis of mammalian transcriptional regulation in differentiation and development.

The 2010 challenge: data availability, information needs and extraterrestrial insights

At the 2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development, 190 countries endorsed a commitment to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national levels. A wide range of approaches is available to the monitoring of progress towards this objective. The strengths and weaknesses of many of these approaches are considered, with special attention being given to the proposed and existing indicators described in the other papers in this issue. Recommendations are made about the development of indicators. Most existing and proposed indicators use data collected for other purposes, which may be unrepresentative. In the short term, much remains to be done in expanding the databases and improving the statistical techniques that underpin these indicators to minimize potential biases. In the longer term, indicators based on unrepresentative data should be replaced with equivalents based on carefully designed sampling programmes. Many proposed and existing indicators do not connect clearly with human welfare and they are unlikely to engage the interest of governments, businesses and the public until they do so. The extent to which the indicators already proposed by parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity are sufficient is explored by reference to the advice an imaginary scientific consultant from another planet might give. This exercise reveals that the range of taxa and biomes covered by existing indicators is incomplete compared with the knowledge we need to protect our interests. More fundamentally, our understanding of the mechanisms linking together the status of biodiversity, Earth system processes, human decisions and actions, and ecosystem services impacting human welfare is still too crude to allow us to infer reliably that actions taken to conserve biodiversity and protect ecosystem services are well chosen and effectively implemented. The involvement of social and Earth system scientists, as well as biologists, in collaborative research programmes to build and parameterize models of the Earth system to elucidate these mechanisms is a high priority.

The Living Planet Index: using species population time series to track trends in biodiversity

The Living Planet Index was developed to measure the changing state of the world's biodiversity over time. It uses time-series data to calculate average rates of change in a large number of populations of terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate species. The dataset contains about 3000 population time series for over 1100 species. Two methods of calculating the index are outlined: the chain method and a method based on linear modelling of log-transformed data. The dataset is analysed to compare the relative representation of biogeographic realms, ecoregional biomes, threat status and taxonomic groups among species contributing to the index. The two methods show very similar results: terrestrial species declined on average by 25% from 1970 to 2000. Birds and mammals are over-represented in comparison with other vertebrate classes, and temperate species are over-represented compared with tropical species, but there is little difference in representation between threatened and non-threatened species. Some of the problems arising from over-representation are reduced by the way in which the index is calculated. It may be possible to reduce this further by post-stratification and weighting, but new information would first need to be collected for data-poor classes, realms and biomes.

Diclofenac poisoning is widespread in declining vulture populations across the Indian subcontinent

Recent declines in the populations of three species of vultures in the Indian subcontinent are among the most rapid ever recorded in any bird species. Evidence from a previous study of one of these species, Gyps bengalensis, in the Punjab province of Pakistan, strongly implicates mortality caused by ingestion of residues of the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac as the major cause of the decline. We show that a high proportion of Gyps bengalensis and G. indicus found dead or dying in a much larger area of India and Nepal also have residues of diclofenac and visceral gout, a post-mortem finding that is strongly associated with diclofenac contamination in both species. Hence, veterinary use of diclofenac is likely to have been the major cause of the rapid vulture population declines across the subcontinent.

Monitoring change in biodiversity through composite indices

The need to monitor trends in biodiversity raises many technical issues. What are the features of a good biodiversity index? How should trends in abundance of individual species be estimated? How should composite indices, possibly spanning very diverse taxa, be formed? At what spatial scale should composite indices be applied? How might change-points--points at which the underlying trend changes--be identified? We address some of the technical issues underlying composite indices, including survey design, weighting of the constituent indices, identification of change-points and estimation of spatially varying time trends. We suggest some criteria that biodiversity measures for use in monitoring surveys should satisfy, and we discuss the problems of implementing rigorous methods. We illustrate the properties of different composite indices using UK farmland bird data. We conclude that no single index can capture all aspects of biodiversity change, but that a modified Shannon index and the geometric mean of relative abundance have useful properties.

Farming and the fate of wild nature

World food demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Decisions about how to meet this challenge will have profound effects on wild species and habitats. We show that farming is already the greatest extinction threat to birds (the best known taxon), and its adverse impacts look set to increase, especially in developing countries. Two competing solutions have been proposed: wildlife-friendly farming (which boosts densities of wild populations on farmland but may decrease agricultural yields) and land sparing (which minimizes demand for farmland by increasing yield). We present a model that identifies how to resolve the trade-off between these approaches. This shows that the best type of farming for species persistence depends on the demand for agricultural products and on how the population densities of different species on farmland change with agricultural yield. Empirical data on such density-yield functions are sparse, but evidence from a range of taxa in developing countries suggests that high-yield farming may allow more species to persist.

Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Using stable isotopes to investigate migratory connectivity of the globally threatened aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola

Understanding the links between breeding and wintering areas of migratory species has important ecological and conservation implications. Recently, stable isotope technology has been used to further our understanding. Stable isotope ratios vary geographically with a range of biogeochemical factors and isotope profiles in organisms reflect those in their food and environment. For inert tissues like feathers, isotope profiles reflect the environment in which they were formed. Following large-scale habitat destruction, the globally threatened aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola has a fragmented breeding population across central Europe, largely in Belarus, Poland and Ukraine. The species' sub-Saharan African wintering grounds have not yet been discovered, and this significantly hampers conservation efforts. Aquatic warblers grow their flight feathers on their wintering grounds, and we analysed stable isotope ratios (delta(15)N, delta(13)C, delta D) in rectrices of adults from six main breeding sites (subpopulations) across Europe to determine whether different breeding subpopulations formed a single mixed population on the wintering grounds. delta(15)N varies considerably with dietary trophic level and environmental factors, and delta D with the delta D in rainfall; neither varied between aquatic warbler subpopulations. Uniform feather delta(15)N signatures suggest no major variation in dietary trophic level during feather formation. High variance and inter-annual differences in mean delta D values hinder interpretation of these data. Significant differences in mean delta(13)C ratios existed between subpopulations. We discuss possible interpretations of this result, and consider differences in moulting latitude of different subpopulations to be the most parsimonious. delta(13)C in plants and animals decreases with latitude, along a steep gradient in sub-Saharan Africa. Birds from the most northwesterly breeding subpopulation (Karsibor, Poland) had significantly lower variance in delta(13)C and delta(15)N than birds from all other sites, suggesting either that birds from Karsibor are less geographically dispersed during moult, or moult in an area with less isotopic heterogeneity. Mean delta(13)C signatures from winter-grown feathers of different subpopulations were positively correlated with the latitude and longitude of breeding sites, suggesting a strong relationship between European breeding and African winter moulting latitudes. The use of stable isotopes provides novel insights into migratory connectivity and migration patterns in this little-known threatened species.

Economic reasons for conserving wild nature

On the eve of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, it is timely to assess progress over the 10 years since its predecessor in Rio de Janeiro. Loss and degradation of remaining natural habitats has continued largely unabated. However, evidence has been accumulating that such systems generate marked economic benefits, which the available data suggest exceed those obtained from continued habitat conversion. We estimate that the overall benefit:cost ratio of an effective global program for the conservation of remaining wild nature is at least 100:1.

Neuropsychologic impairment after coronary bypass surgery: effect of gaseous microemboli during perfusionist interventions

OBJECTIVE

Neuropsychologic impairment is a common complication of coronary bypass surgery. Cerebral microemboli during cardiopulmonary bypass are the principal cause of cognitive deficits after coronary bypass grafting. We have previously demonstrated that the majority of cerebral emboli occur during perfusionist interventions (ie, during the injection of air into the venous side of the cardiopulmonary bypass circuit). The purpose of this study was to determine whether an increase in perfusionist interventions is associated with an increased risk of postoperative cognitive impairment.

METHODS

Patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass grafting (n = 83) underwent a battery of neuropsychologic tests preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the median value of perfusionist interventions during cardiopulmonary bypass. Group 1 patients (n = 42) had fewer than 10 perfusionist interventions, and group 2 patients (n = 41) had 10 or more interventions.

RESULTS

The 2 groups of patients were similar for all preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables, with the exception of longer cardiopulmonary bypass times in group 2 patients (P <.001). Group 2 patients had lower mean scores on 9 of 10 neuropsychologic tests, with 3 (Rey Auditory Verbal Learning, Digit Span, and Visual Span) being statistically significant. Group 2 patients had worse cognitive test scores, even when controlling for increased bypass times. Group 2 patients had a nonsignificant trend toward an increased prevalence of neuropsychologic impairment 3 months postoperatively.

CONCLUSIONS

Introduction of air into the cardiopulmonary bypass circuit by perfusionists, resulting in cerebral microembolization, may contribute to postoperative cognitive impairment.